manus: good morning from our middle east headquarters, i am manus cranny, dani burger alongside me in london. goldman cuts its forecast for u.s. growth, warning about the omicron variant. a focus on the fed's hawkish tilt. u.k. tightens of travel --

inbound travelers to get a test. the latest from south africa does not show an uptick in severe cases. plus, oil gains and signaling confidence in demand despite the resurgent pandemic. welcome to the show. we are reunited, it has been a while. it is a little bit like world we look at. on the one hand we have omicron, on the other hand, this is what the team have written, the gradual normalization post dfc, we are not getting that this time. this is not the template we are facing, it will perhaps be faster, more furious and more aggressive. good morning. dani: i can't tell you how lovely it is to be back, the show is lonely without you. it is a different environment

find ourselves in, and that perhaps accounts for the difficulty headphones have had -- hedge funds have had keeping up. manus, i did this chart, it is a treasure etf, the biggest weekly inflow last week on record. on this grab for duration and safety as we try to wrap our heads around the new environment we find ourselves in. manus: indeed. i think there's also differentiation very much between the equity risk you see in pricing in asia. and perhaps the bounce back in the u.s. equity story this morning. dani: in the u.s. equity story, we are seeing some popular perhaps retail names, they continue to selloff. you've been talking about bitcoin all morning as well. manus: slaughtered over the weekend, down 20%. there is the correlation with

the u.s. equity market. if you have a less benevolent fed, what is the risk and how many rate hikes next year? those are the debate. what can the equity risks survive in a rate hike environment? dani: certainly, it has been said we are headed toward a bear market next year. we went through some of the market data. we are seeing some treasury selling coming through after, as always saying yesterday, this massive bid into treasuries, trying to adjust to the fed in the new variant. s&p 500 futures, up half a percent. brent crude, i know we will talk about this throughout the show, saudi arabia raising prices overconfidence in demand. and that coin, i had to put it in here, continues -- bitcoin, i had a put it in here, continues to slump. manus: maybe i can load up for

the pension fund. let's talk about goldman sachs, they slashed the growth for the u.s. gdp this year and the next. they are discussing the spread of omicron. let's get a perspective on this. just how bleak -- they are not cutting 1%, but how bleak of a scenario are they painting? >> modest downside, maybe down 3.8%, still a decent debt -- decent bed. the scenario to talk about is that omicron will spread after delta. the community protection would be less. the net result would be you have ongoing disruption to the supply-side of the economy, you

might have consumers more cautious about spending or even going back to work. it would be a disruption of that side of the economy and there would be an inflation impact, a downside in the travel sector for example. going back to the supply-side story, we would see an ongoing crunch for goods. putting it together, goldman are talking about a modest downside scenario. i think that's where a lot of economists are at the moment. clearly is not a positive for the global recovery, but the question is how severe the impacts from the new variant will be. dani: fascinating to weigh up these inflationary forces from the new variant. thank you. as omicron continues to spread, the u.k. government has announced new travel rules. let's get the latest from laura wright.

what can we expect on our travels? laura: added cost, bureaucracy and expense. you have to take a predeparture test within 48 hours of your flight to the united kingdom. it can be a pcr or a lateral flow from a government approved provider. you still have to take a pcr test upon arriving in the u.k. within two days and you must quarantine until you receive a negative result. that is coming into place on tuesday. today, nigeria also added to the u.k. red list, along with the group of southern african countries. governments want to act quickly. i year ago they were criticized for slow response to the delta variant speed these travel restrictions -- delta variant. these travel variants -- restrictions come as omicron is

spreading faster than previous waves of the pandemic and a preliminary study indicates it can evade immunity generated by prior infection. for the markets, the selloff has been widespread is the discovery of omicron. the travel and leisure index down 20% over one month. the bloomberg world airlines index down almost 14%. ahead of the open, keep your eyes on iag and easyjet. london has airlines that have a large u.k. passenger base. manus: i suppose every intervention is a tough one. thank you for the update. a quick line from saint-gobain, a builder in france. they are looking into a building

company. we got this story at the end of last week. it looks like the deal is in. it's about getting hold of something from a technology point of view to help bring this along in building out strategy for some of these big players. dani: it will be fascinating to watch this at the open given a 37% premium. pretty hefty as we continue to see people happy to pay up for tack, -- for tech. let's bring laura back. laura: three democrats have backed a deal with the social democrats and greens, bringing the party closer to governing europe's biggest economy. in berlin, 92% supported the new coalition's plans for the next four years. the new government, headed by olaf scholz, is set to be sworn in on wednesday.

in france, republicans have nominated the first woman presidential candidate to challenge emmanuel macron april. she won the final round of the ballot with 621% of members's vote. she was seen as the more moderate of the two candidates. saudi arabia has raised oil prices in asia and the u.s., signaling demand will stay strong despite the spread of the omicron variant. this days after opec and allies -- to build -- boost crude output. all crude raised to the highest price since february 2020, before the pandemic took hold. the u.k.'s biggest business lobby has cut its forecast for growth this year and next, warning costs and shortages are hampering recovery. they now expect an expansion of 6.9% in 2021, down from 8.2%.

a weaker performance in recent months with headwinds caused by inflation and supply chain issues. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. let's get the latest on was happening in the asia session. are they assessing risk in asia versus equities? >> we've got a lot of balls in the air. on the one hand, we've been talking about the new pathogen causing havoc around the world and closures and spreading. the regulatory overhang in china, also a hawkish fed. a seemingly more hawkish fed. overlaying that, a head scratcher of a jobs report. then we have u.s. treasuries,

perhaps trying to make sense of this as well. 30 year yields falling back, recovering somewhat to levels we haven't seen since january. overall markets, let's look at those, the nikkei down about one third of 1%. the hang seng off lows, 1.2% to the downside. the kospi with a gain of about one third of 1%. the australian market pretty much unchanged. investors with all of these moving parts. it is steady essentially if you don't have a tech component. alibaba, 4.8% down. tencent, all because of fears sparked by didi, they are moving their listing from new york to hong kong. the regulator making some seemingly futile attempts to get people not so excited about all of this and calm things down.

then we have property on top of this, and the property market here being developed. evergrande, supposedly we were going to get a restructuring plan on the offshore debt, we have not had that yet. we were supposed to get that on friday. evergrande down 12.4%. a default on sunshine 100. they were supposed to make a payment yesterday and they defaulted yesterday. not looking good, everything in the air, and it is hong kong with the brunt of it. dani: thank you so much, copperheads of coverage. -- comprehensive coverage. coming up, a jobs report and a more hawkish fed. manus: plus we take a look at the new curbs in germany for the unvaccinated. they join a number of countries in the bloc cracking down on

unvaccinated citizens. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. markets continue to adjust to a hawkish fed, confusion over the jobs number yesterday reinforcing the end of the week higher, but longer duration. i find it remarkable how wrong we have been in this position, hedge funds really got burned. to what degree do they need to reconsider how they were positioned before a hawkish tilt

from the fed? manus: they got wrongfooted. you look friday at the 10 year part of the curve and you begin to understand. omicron and potentially a tighter, more aggressive fed. citi calling for a faster taper of around $30 billion, that would meet the taper would end of the end of march. yesterday, we have lots of people on about what they thought would happen, that the fed should go faster, more aggressive, with larry summers pulling for four hikes with a two way risk that in the chinese on market, different narrative. with a rrr cut, declined for basis points. the bond market -- four basis points. the bond market could go below 2.8%. owsley -- aussie rising in the

dollar on a back foot from one year highs. something to think about in terms of the dollar. the dollar movement you are seeing this morning. dani: let's put some of the movement to our next guest, an economist at fidelity international. happy monday and good morning. manus was walking us through some of the market action this morning. how much of a re-think have you had to have the last week because of the pivot from the fed? >> i think it does make sense. looking at the u.s. economy, the labor market is strong, inflation is picking up. i do think they are going to continue being relatively hawkish for the time being. we do think that ultimately it is unlikely they will be very aggressive in tightening through

next year, because is not just about the u.s. economy, it is about global financial conditions, and the fed is looking at global financial conditions. if we see aggressive tightening, i think they will have to be much more paced. manus: if we look at your positioning, i know you are neutral on equities, but in terms of duration, i had a guest yesterday, he is a hungry duration hunter and was warmly rewarded at the end of last week on tens and 30's. are you a duration hunter? anna: we are neutral on duration. we do think being underweight duration into next year, on the

horizon from six to 12 months, makes sense. it will stick at some point. it will stick some adjustments downwards. at the same time, we think the fed is not going to be very aggressive. that reaction function is when you need to figure out the new, flexible framework of the fed, and if it does what it says, will be able to tolerate high inflation for the time being without needing to be aggressive. we think yields will be higher. not extremely higher from here, given the headwinds and uncertainty, but higher from where we are now. dani: even if the fed is not that aggressive, at what point does tightening policy mean there will be issues going forward for risk markets? at what point does it start to

weigh on markets that over the past year have had a tremendous run-up? anna: i think it honestly depends on the pace and how rapid financial conditions tighten. look at the equity markets and currency. given the growth of duration in the next two months and inflation, they could potentially also the client. i do think the fed isn't likely to tighten three or four times over the next 12 months because it is too much for the markets to take. manus: in my inbox this morning, a bit of a pun, do you see any historical shade throwing of

2018 where fed tightening mode, earning strong, equity markets, but literally convulsed? is that a risk? anna: i think there is a bit of 2018 shade, but we are in a different environment, given the inflation backdrop and omicron. but it is possible we might see -- that's why we are neutral risk for the time being. we think volatility will continue as we move to the end of the year, potentially early 2022 with uncertainty about omicron and tightening restrictions. that might be a huge drop in growth going forward. manus: anna, economist at

fidelity international, stays with us. coming up, we continue the conversation with anna, including more on what omicron means globally. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "daybreak: europe." anna is our global macro strategist at fidelity. the market is anticipating a rrr from china, excuse me, from the regulator, that could put up to one trillion yuan back into the system. does that shift for you to take more risk in china, in asia, going into 2022?

anna: china policy, very tight policy, has been one of the major headwinds for the global economy, even though it has been offset by strong demand overall. but we have been worried about that thing part of this policy, all over the world. it has been encouraging to see the data, and we've been expecting bigger easing. i think it will be a signal in terms of the risk for china and asia overall. always asia and emerging markets, plus the signals from china. dani: at the same time, risks from china have not gone

anywhere, didi now listing in hong kong. does your overweight in asia also extend to china tech? anna: it is normal overweight, but we have to be very much selective across countries and sectors, and you are right. i would say, going back to omicron more generally, if it is spreading and spreads to china, given their zero-tolerance policy, we might see more lockdowns, and that is not going to overall be good for growth and risk in general. there are risks in particular from regulation and omicron, given the policy, it is likely to be more supportive, so we are overweight for now. manus: goldman sachs are cutting their growth forecast for the

u.s. over the weekend. what do you think in terms of growth going into 2022 overall? are you of the normalization camp, but nothing too dramatic on the downside? anna: i think there are risks to the downside, modest and nondramatic. i think there will be differentiation between countries that will depend on the government's reaction to omicron. here in the u.k. in europe, we have seen restrictions that will have an impact. for the u.s., it is uncertain. we have seen less restrictions, and the growth sensitivity to those restrictions have been very low, much lower. i think there is risk to the downside, but more so the u.k. in europe. dani: anna, thank you for joining us.

enjoy the rest of your week. coming up, germany locks down the unvaccinated and leaders plan to make shots compulsory as covid cases surge in the country. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters, it has just gone a 6:30 in london. i am dani burger manus cranny in dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." treasury yields trim friday's plans with focus on a fed and a hawkish pivot. futures said he as investors weigh risks of the omicron variant. u.k. tightens travel rules, forcing inbound travelers to get

the fright -- pre-flight test. plus, we'll gains after saudi hikes prices. they have confidence in demand despite the resurgent pandemic. good morning to you, manus, back together and at least for now, rockets taking solace -- markets taking solace and calmer than the past week. i have to wonder how long it will last given there is evidence that bit buyers might have disappointing -- disappeared. a lot of retail favorites, be it bitcoin and etf, those have seen significant outflows and have fallen. can we keep relying in the -- on the buy the dip strategy? manus: you are showing the arc, you've got tesla, teladoc health. when we looked at it going over

the weekend, slammed over 20%, i was taking about how is tesla going to do today? we know a lot of it is crypto exposure, we don't have the exact numbers in tesla. but you are right, and also the number of these making new lows in this selloff is widening. i think definitely there is a pressure point. what can be better in terms of higher rates, that is the question. dani: fantastic point, not just the correlation, i did not think about that. we have a lot of tech companies with bitcoin exposure. that 52-week low, the most we have seen less week of stocks making new 52-week lows since march 2020. having those echoes of march 2020, obviously a very different environment but not something that instills confidence. manus: you read the exact detail

of windows 52 week lows were made, i just breezed past -- of when those 52 week lows, i just breezed past. let's look at the markets, the bounceback and equities, yields rising from the nadir. you just had anna on saying she wants to be short duration. moved up half of 1%. bitcoin awful, down 20% from its highs last week. the question is, will the buyers of the crypto dip -- go have a look at this twitter account, he says if you buy some, you switch it off, and then you come back and have a wee look and then you switch it off. dani: the most important twitter accounts, mike and also manus.

germany is making life tougher for the unvaccinated. only people who are inoculated or recovered from covid will be allowed into some public venues. what is olaf scholz planning to do when he comes into office on wednesday to fight the fourth wave of the virus? >> he will implement what you just said. the vaccinated and recovered people are getting access not only to events but also shops, so that impedes christmas shopping for people. the other thing is he has basically threatened to introduce mandatory vaccination for everybody in february and march. obviously the impact will be postponed, it will be delayed, almost at the end of the fourth

wave, but it is more of a threat so the people will take on the offer now so that will we really see an impact? hopefully soon. manus: we have seen that vaccination and struggling in the pandemic, democracy versus some other structures, doesn't do so well. what are the difficulties he is facing? is there much social clash? have you -- social backlash? have there been protests? birgit: there have been protests at the weekend, and the group is not homogeneous. there are those i call individualist that don't like the state telling them what to do and infringes on their freedoms. then there are people who are genuinely afraid of taking the vaccination. then there is probably the larger group who still doesn't care. i think this is the group they want to target now. that is the most easy to get to

the vaccination, they just needed to see it is not practical for them anymore to ignore the advice. that is where the pressure is on. manus: thank you so much for being with us with context on what is going on with the new administration and germany. joining us now is judy dempsey, a carnegie senior fellow. good morning. threats of mandatory vaccination potentially to come in germany. restrictions and austria. fines in greece. this is a very different narrative to the one we had at the start of the pandemic. what is the risk of severe social unrest across europe in 2022? good morning. judy: good morning, nice to see both of you. risks are hard to measure and a lot depends on the kind of leadership, firstly.

secondly is the increasing role of social media, how it is spreading conspiracy theories. and thirdly, the stress of the state, whether it is france, germany -- this trust of the state, whether it is france, germany, the u.k., and that is something olaf scholz will have to deal with. dani: distrust of the state, it doesn't seem straightforward to solve. what are the tools he has at his disposal as he comes into the chancellorship, to shift the narrative? judy: olaf scholz has at his disposal, i suppose he has wind in his sails. he is not an entirely new face but it is a new era. there is an interesting coalition with the democrats is promising a new beginning.

in some ways it is a new status quo. that is the first thing. secondly, olaf scholz has made dealing with the pandemic his number one priority. he has already set up a special committee, an expert group inside the chancellery that will meet he wants to push the agenda as soon as possible. we have seen inflation rising very high indeed. he really wants to deal with the pandemic and then get on with his bigger agenda, which is the labor market, unemployment. manus: linked to this is he has got to deliver on covid triumphantly if he ever wants to walk in the footsteps of angela merkel. my sense is the axis of power in europe is migrating south at a rapid clip to mario draghi. germany runs the risk of losing the mantle of the leader of europe. judy: i am not so sure about

that. there is always speculation, is germany using its rule in europe? first of all, is not possible, it is the biggest economy, and it carries so much weight in the european council and indeed the commission. and the bigger countries do need germany. some could say, look at this new franco italian pact, this could be an option to germany --no, i think this is good. different coalitions and triangles that are needed because you cannot just rely on one country to solve all of the problems of the european union. dani: speaking of those problems, much as been made of angela merkel's relationship with russia and vladimir putin, and this is coming at a time when the u.s., eu and u.k. are weighing sanctions on russia should it follow through on threats to ukraine.

what position does this put germany in amid this geopolitical turmoil? judy: in a very challenging system, because part of the spd is very pro-russian. they went along with the sanctions with angela merkel, but this is a different constellation. the greens want a much tougher line by germany on russia, even stopping nord stream 2. the u.s. last week was threatening more sanctions on companies dealing with nord stream 2. olaf scholz comes in with a major foreign policy issue. he's got to juggle the relationship with the united states and determine what sort of policy he, the u.s. and the eu will have with russia, and i don't think he can afford to be the odd leader out when it comes to dealing with russia. manus: what kind of relationship do you think he wants with the u.s.? judy: olaf scholz has to move

his parties credentials -- prove his party's credentials are rocksolid. inside the social democrats there is a hard left wing faction skeptical about nato and skeptical about america, and socials have to bring them on board. i think he will do because of the coalition he is building. the greens, the realistic wing especially, are very much prone nato and pro-america and skeptical of russia. essentially olaf scholz can always lean on his coalition partners if he is troubled with the social democrats. dani: judy, thank you for joining us. that is judy dempsey, carnegie europe senior fellow. let's get over to the first word news, laura wright is back. laura: south africa at the

center of the omicron variant, not showing a surge in hospitalizations. dr. anthony fauci says it doesn't look like there is a great debris -- degree of spread so far but cautions it is too early to be certain. >> we absolutely have community spread in this country, we have community spread with the new york-and assorted case, were someone in minnesota went to new york and got infected and people he was in contact with got infected. we don't know how many are of them but there is community spread. laura: myanmar sentenced a former leader to four years in prison according to reports from a news agency. he was removed in a coup in february, found guilty in breaching covid rules. the party won more than 80% of

the seats year ago. france has nominated the first woman to challenge emmanuel macron. she had six to 1% of member's votes. she was seen as the more moderate of a kind it is. evergrande's debt restructuring may finally be in the cards after the developer announced it plans to actively engage with offshore creditors. that would be seen as an knowledge meant that it's -- acknowledgment that is liability is unsustainable. the 30 day grace period ins today. -- ends today. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you. coming up, a combination of active and passive investing,

the future of money management. we will talk the big take on bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is monday and this is "daybreak: europe." it is an existential challenge to the world's asset managers, deliver the etf boom or risk extension? now the giants hope they have a way to fight back. blackrock and morgan stanley among those racing to offer software that can create a unique, custom index for every investor and let them buy sell shares directly. christina lee wrote today's big

take story. long live the anti-etfs. is that the message? christina: if you kind of pay attention to the name, it doesn't sound a bit reminiscent of an etf in the sense that there is still the world -- word index there, but it is typically adding stocks like the s&p 500, so you still have a personalized portfolio on the cheap, and at the same time, you can sell individual stocks so you can essentially harvest tax losses to offset your capital gains tax. dani: why is it winning more assets and leading to a string of deals as well? justina: that's a great question. this is not exactly new. it seems to have gotten an upgrade lately and i think that's partly because trading has gotten cheaper.

it is more convenient to offer this. technology has gotten better. i think there are some people in the industry that feel like how anymore etf's are we going to get at this point? it is time for the next big thing, and that's what they think it is. manus: the bigger question is what does it mean for the industry? justina: right, i think a lot of people are wondering if wall street has finally hit on something that can be the latest wave, kind of a pushback against all of the bleeding assets from mutual funds as well as this big etf wave. if you think about it, it is fueling more trading flows, good news for people who count on that, but at the same time, because direct indexing is still more complicated than etf's or an average index fund, now you have a reason to charge a little money, whether you are a product

provider or a financial advisor. dani: justina, thank you. fantastic story. quickly want to pull up this screen, as the asian session wraps up, we're looking at the csi 300 in the red, it was earlier. leading the way lower, health care and energy, and of course the tech story continues to weigh on china despite the fact that we might be looking at easing in the region. manus: you mentioned it earlier, natural gas, when the warm weather comes, down goes natural gas, down 8% at one juncture this morning. down 7% now. this after the worst weekly route since 2014 last week. a lot in the energy complex. a lot in wti and brent. did you know even though i was off work on thursday and you know i like to put in the extra hours unpaid -- dani: [laughter]

manus: just in case the buses are listing. the opec can be live for 33 days. they are caught in a conundrum of not having enough data. i would not necessarily go to the opec-plus zoom room, you might be on your own there, but live for 33 days. dani: you know the superlatives better than i do, i don't know what you are on about that i have the data covered, you have the better grasp of this and i would not be surprised if you were tuned in to the zoom room for 33 days. manus: the opec account is great on twitter. coming up, we have our energy reporter and we will talk about why saudi is raising prices in the face of adding barrels to the market. go figure. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is your monday morning "daybreak: europe." oil is marching higher despite the saudis raising the price of crude -- does that signal confidence in demand despite the spread of the omicron variant? we are four days into the current opec-plus meeting, which has added 400,000 barrels at the start of january to the oil market. paul wallace is our energy and oil reporter on the ground. the saudis, let's be honest, they are the ones with the capacity to move markets, and they have raised the prices by $.60 to their asian customers. what does the market make of

that move? a swaggering, aggressive move or just good fortune? paul: it is a pretty bold signal. it was more or less inspected the market, at least after the opec less meeting -- opec-plus meeting on thursday. traders did see aramco raising prices, yes, this is a sign of optimism from the saudis in a signal they see demand staying strong despite the spread of the omicron variant of the coronavirus. dani: at the same time, you have opec and saudi arabia, the market switching from a supply deficit to a surplus of next year. what does that mean for prices? paul: that's the interesting thing about the saudi arabian move, even with opec-plus's decision to raise output by 400,000 barrels a day in january. most analysts, including opec,

see this which from a supply deficit to a surplus early next year, and i most accounts it will be quite a rapid and quite a big switch. that is likely to put downward pressure on prices in the first quarter of next year. however, you do have things that are still playing to the hands of the oil bulls. oil industries are still pretty low by recent historical standards. that doesn't necessarily mean we will get a dramatic drop in crude prices in the first quarter. manus: a guest called it a brilliant move by opec to leave the meeting open. it is still running. i encourage everyone to look at the twitter account. energy outlook cutting demand

for jet fuel and other products as well. is that part of the reason we have this open meeting? they just don't have enough data, do they, in terms of outlining 2022? paul: yes, i think that's the reason the meeting has been kept open and why opec-plus and saudis have said they can react quickly to change plans if the market opens. you mentioned the energy aspects. for them, the big thing is a jet fuel demand, they are seeing a drop of oil demand because of a reduction in air flights. from now until the early part of next year. we will have to see how the omicron variant plays out and just what it means for crude demand across the world, but it does seem like the most likely thing to get hit is jet fuel. dani: paul, thank you so much. manus, it is the low markets and

the fed weaving themselves some flexibility. manus: flexible power. a tone change, and sped up the consideration of tabor and he got reappointed. -- taper and he got reappointed. ♪

anna: good morning. welcome back to "bloomberg markets: europe." i'm an edwards live in london. -- anna edwards live in london. the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. goldman cuts forecasts for u.s. growth, warning about the omicron variants. crypto crumbles. bitcoin and other digital tokens plunge over the