romaine: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm romaine bostick. we saw a little bit of a comeback in u.s. equities. investors taking some comfort -- so far, the omicron variant is not going to be as bad as feared. we will dig into that cautious optimism because even as markets turn more upbeat, experts warn it is too soon to draw conclusions.

vaccine mandates being declared in some hospitals are taking measures to take the stress off the health care system. we will hear first hand from caroline hyde and the u.k. about international travel. we will talk about what's going on from a scientific perspective. but traders right now are waiting to see what comes next. sonali: really trying to avoid some of the intraday movement. but from an absolute trader point of view, it looks like the classic reopening trade. with the stocks, looking at the transportation index, the key outperformer. united, up, american, gel -- delta, jetblue, all up. broader travel, even cruises are up 8%. expedia, if we are thinking about booking trips, up 7% as

well. let's get some more insight into what the virus means for travel with johns hopkins epidemiologist dr. david doughty. what do

variant? it seems like there's relative calm, but perhaps cautious optimism as well? dr. dowdy: thank you so much for having me. i think what you are saying is right. we are starting to see the initial surge of omicron died down a little bit in south africa. we are seeing it expanded other countries, but maybe not the level we were fearing. i think also looking at hospitalizations, death rates in south africa, those have been lower than what was expected. overall, i think we are likely to see an uptick in this virus worldwide, but it doesn't seem to be quite as dangerous as we might have feared at the very beginning of this outbreak. taylor: is it too early to ask what this means about this variant and the overall spread of the virus? dr. dowdy: yes. it is too early. but i think we should as a global society get used to the fact that we are going to see these sorts of outbreaks from time to time. viruses mutate. we will be seeing new variants in the coming months and coming years and we have to make sure we learn to take them in stride, to treat them with respect, but not necessarily panic and fear. romaine: what it sounds like is this is something we will be living with at least for the foreseeable future, maybe even the longer term. i'm curious, as we prepare ourselves for that possibility, do we need to make changes to our messaging going out of the

government? is there more we can do to prepare the american psyche and global psyche for what covid is and may become? dr. dowdy: when we are talking about living with this going forward, one of the key messages is this may not be as deadly or serious in the months and years to come as it has been in the past. so even though cases are rising somewhat, death rates throughout the world are not. this hopefully will settle into being on another one of those respiratory viruses that we live with. i don't want to draw comparisons to the flu, but it may be a little more serious than that going forward, it may not. we don't really know. we need to get used to that sort of reality.

taylor: we have data here on the terminal, also tracking your data at johns hopkins, tracking the death rate. still very, very low. is this fascination with cases the wrong way to be looking at it? we should be looking at the death rate. is that the vaccine were is that herd immunity? dr. dowdy: i think it is important to start looking at deaths and hospitalizations. we want to look at serious illness, not just fatal illness. looking at cases is probably not what we need to be focused on. you are saying very, very low, it's still a thousand deaths a day in the u.s. and that's quite a lot. so we should be trying to push it lower than that. but it is important to stop looking at surges in cases as being evidence this virus is taking a toll. romaine: really appreciate the

levelheaded response. dr. david doughty from bloomberg's johns hopkins school of public health. johns hopkins school is supported by michael r. bloomberg, the owner and founder of the network and company you are watching right now. let's continue our discussion and talk about the impact on the travel sector. the president of tourism and economics will be here to talk about it. looks like people are still booking trips, getting on cruises, still going out to restaurants. sonali: i think that's a good point and when do these restrictions become so difficult that it causes people to cancel? personally i'm not there yet, but i don't speak for everyone. romaine: and there are some regional differences. going from here to europe is one thing. from here to certain parts of asia may be another. or some of these african nations now being completely locked out.

sonali: and we get a -- an update from our chief belfast correspondent. romaine: don't go anywhere. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> thanks to the speed and effectiveness of vaccination, we have 95% of the population vaccinated. so the impact so far is much lower than other neighboring countries and it's giving confidence to citizens that they can come to spain and our tourism sector is booming. romaine: the deputy prime minister of spain with a relatively upbeat take on travel. a lot of concerns about do you

require them to quarantine or get them tested before they come in. we sent our very own caroline hyde on an international flight to the u.k. to get some real reporting on the ground. you just flew from the united states to belfast and you are not out and about, you are in quarantine? caroline: this is my view for the next few days until i get my pcr result. you have to isolate the minute you arrive in the united kingdom. i was hearing for a long time -- i had an american airlines flight that was full. the u.k. was about to increase some of those restrictions further. now they need to have a pcr test before you fly as well as on arrival and isolation until you get that result on arrival. so many people rushed to get the flight and you have passenger forms to fill out and the lines

are longer with people missing their flights because of it. many people taking different means of restricting and you just know that the u.s. is doing the same in return. when i fly back to the united states, this trip i had to take on personal visa issues, i have to take a test 24 hours for my flight. there are more and more restrictions coming in. sonali: the rules keep on being written differently and that kind of confusion, how much does that create an overhang for any travelers into the holiday time and in new -- into the new year? caroline: you don't have to come. many people are going to be putting off travel because there are so many hoops to run and you can't often postpone your flight. so why would you be taking these

sorts of restrictive steps when you don't -- i don't even know what test i'm going to have to take to get back into the night it states. i can't get a pcr test and have the results. i have to look at a myriad of other viral testing that will give me the result as soon as i want. and or member this is not cheap stop i'm paying 60 pounds for each test. so this is something that is weighing heavily on their purses. this is why the business travel sector and travel in general is so frustrated. shares down on some of the stoxx 600 airlines. taylor: i'm trying to figure out a way to ask about an fts and the yield curve and the producer says don't even try. thank you to our belfast and british correspondent, our coanchor, caroline hyde. stay safe there and see you soon.

let continue the conversation. joining us more with insight is adam sacks, president of tourism economics. i know we are taking a long-term perspective, but as of the last few weeks, given the heightened concerns on the variant, what have you noticed? adam: i think one of the most striking things about the traveler we are observing as they are increasingly resilient. even as we saw the delta wave crest at the end of summer and early fall, travel demand did not wane. demand for air travel, hotel rooms, all continued to strengthen through that time. that was even more striking because as we move from the peak leisure season into business and leisure travel. even though people were worried about delta and now we are worried about omicron, the

actual behavior of travelers is not being reflected in a notable way. sonali: i'm curious because you see it in the things like stock prices -- it's gone through the roof in anticipation of a comeback. what evidence do you have that investors are onto something or are they in over their skis? adam: we remain very bullish on the recovery of travel. what we are seeing is the fundamentals are and savings are high as well as on the deleveraging side. combine that with pent up and the shifting of consumption from goods to services we are seeing at a macro level, all of this bodes really well. while we are concerned about the unknowns regarding the omicron virus, what we do know right now is enough to say the smart money

is that travel continues to recover as we move into 2022. romaine: there's no doubt a lot of us are willing to take measured risks to do so. there's also a question of how smooth the process is going to be. we spoke to our previous guest and she talked about the testing protocols and quarantines. i know that's not every nation, but that has to factor in where people go and when they decide to go. i'm wondering how the company you worked with how they are looking to accommodate people to make sure wherever they are trying to go is going to be as painless as possible within reason. adam: from a communications standpoint, it's all hands on deck to make sure the protocol is clearly communicated. the travel industry is actively lobbying not only for clear commute occasion but off ramps

to current requirements. that's because we are requiring certain testing now. let's keep in view that we don't want to be a year down the line requiring something. people taking their shoes off at the tsa checkpoint when they don't necessarily need to. keep in mind international cross-border travel is going to come back no matter what. we are not expecting international travel in the u.s. to fully recover until 2024. in the meantime, domestic travel, canadian, mexican cross-border travel, those things are helping to fill in the gap. we have seen domestic travel capably fill in the gap of the loss of inbound travel and that has been true globally as travel has become more regionalized and

localized. while people are traveling differently, businesses are still finding customers. it's a different mix. taylor: what about the differences in the way people are booking? we have consistently heard the timeline is getting shorter. people are still looking for trips may be a month out but they're not booking six months or a year out. is that a permanent shift that you see? adam: it's a shift that hasn't normalized yet and even in that one week booking window, things are pacing really strongly. so right now, i think the uncertainty is keeping things within that shorter booking window. but there is no reason to think this resets the way people plan their larger holidays. those things do require planning and scheduling and assuring you got the accommodations and travel all lined up. i think that will normalize as

we move into 2022.

taylor: today, we are focused on the omicron variant ended to impact on the recovery. talk about this new strain --

governments have been cracking down, but really cracking down on the unvaccinated, seeming to take this to the additional level. romaine: there was a lot of talk today about the announcement by the outgoing mayor, bill de blasio, basically declaring a mandate for private businesses. we should point out that this is in a city with one of the highest vaccination rates of any of the major cities in this country, but you are starting to see more of a push by the government to say you've got to do this. sonali: is it going to move the needle? romaine: i don't know. let's talk a little more about what the impact this might have. we know the government at the federal level was reluctant to impose a mandate and we saw a lot of companies pick up the mantle, whether it was a soft mandate or a hard mandate. but it seems people are willing to say you have to get this done

or you can't come into our business or into our city. john: good evening and thank you for having me on. this reflects the level of anxiety and maybe desperation. you seen countries around europe that are raising barriers to unvaccinated people. the message just a few months ago, we were deeply in the pandemic that was stultifying the economies and societies and nobody wants to go back there. as to whether this is going to stick, i agree with you entirely. the federal government has already attempted to impose a vaccine mandate. it has been challenged legally.

it's anyone's guess how long that is going to take to resolve and as whether de blasio is going to be able to go ahead with it as the outgoing mayor, i don't know. sonali: given that other cities may seek to go along the route new york is going by, what are the legal challenges they may face? john: they may face court challenges, there is a public health issue that is still an open question. keep in mind schools are able to mandate vaccines for kids who come in. there's some ability to challenge those mandates, so i think there is every indication that some degree of this position may be able to go

forward. but as far as the legal ins and outs, i really can't tell you. taylor: what are you thinking about the global appetite for these lockdowns at this point? there seems to be some pushback at least. john: there is absolutely no appetite for it whatsoever. that's why we are seeing countries in europe crackdown this late. it's important to keep in mind that other countries are going to be watching. countries like germany, which is very closely eyeing the idea of not a vaccine mandate but making it difficult to participate, to get into restaurants and their beloved soccer games without a vaccine. these are strong measures and to make them appetizing is going to be very difficult. romaine: we are seeing cities

across the world and a lot of pushback. john lower been who covers everything here. we have seen protests in the european nations, lockdowns and mandates and we know the drama that has been created in the united states. nothing violent so far, but there are a lot of people who are just tired. sonali: and say we are vaccinated, we did what you told us to do. let's get back to normal. i think adam sacks had a good point. i think people are ready. this isn't not being able to book things far enough in advance. taylor: the vaccine efficacy, we were talking about that -- let's see where we get and how that might impact. romaine: i think right now, the

science suggests we don't need to panic, but we will see. sonali: have a great night. taylor: this is bloomberg. ♪

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