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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 9, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EST

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proliferation and tapering. >> the economy has major supply issues. >> if and when they hike, they won't get far. >> i think there's a prospect for a bit of this discomfort in markets. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro, together with kailey leinz. your equity market down to 31%, lisa, down 15 on the s&p. sam rowe, journalist, putting this out yesterday, 47.01 into the omicron scare, like it never happened. lisa: people used it as an opportunity to buy the dip. any good news is further purchased. esther they we were saying it was not purchased as much because it had already been baked in. jon: let's talk about 2022. next year and beyond, if you see some of the forecast, the work
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on bloomberg today is brilliant. the spread between morgan stanley and bema, at least 20%. lisa: it is the widest it has been an second widest in the last decade in terms of spread of the forecast. certainty high given that people are looking at the same economic potential outcomes which completely -- with complete different results in the markets. it is not just economic uncertainty it is what is the markets response and policy response from the federal reserve. jon: and policy certainty on the federal reserve. morgan stanley joining the pack on wall street. they throw in the towel on 23 and look for a hike in september next year. kailey: still later than is largely expected by most economists on the street. they see midyear lift. it morgan stanley having to capitulate. knowing what we heard from jerome powell and the federal reserve, the idea they will probably announce next week an accelerated pace of tapering freeing them up sooner. morgan stanley taking that into
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account. i wonder how that tracks with fair seasons as well. jon: very true. 4400 on the s&p. should we get to the real news, should we sing happy birthday now or later? lisa: are we going to saying? you didn't warn me. i think he would love it. i will do the app and you do the markets. jon: futures down 15. down .3%. lisa: you think i actually would? [laughter] jon: happy birthday, tk. bond market, yields, in 150 ontarians -- on tens. 1.1318. lisa: the drama coming out of the u.k. and we see the pound to the lowest versus the dollar going back a year based on restrictions yesterday. very much dominating the news flow this morning as well. today, 8:30 a.m., we get our jobless claims. today, i'm curious to see the follow-through after yesterday's job opening survey. the second highest read ever of
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job openings, hitting records going back decades. 11 million job openings out there. this was unexpected. it was expected to take up a little bit but this was such a big jump. why is the market so tight? why are we experiencing this still? is that reflected another -- reflected in another all-time jobless claims. president biden will be speaking with the ukrainian president and nato allies in the eastern region of europe, interesting to hear of anything comes out in terms of conversations with vladimir putin having to do with what kind of sanctions there could be, having to do with whether there is easing on the pressure of the troop buildup on the ukrainian border. at 1:00 p.m., the u.s. plans to sell $22 billion of 30 year notes. i'm curious to see any backing away of the yield curve flattening. the five-year, 30 year curve has been the lowest going back more than year. how much do we see this continuing as people start to
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think perhaps the federal reserve will hold off on raising rates or we will see higher inflationary push as momentum continued? jon: would you like to see real rate hikes? 150 basis points yesterday from brazil, signaling another 150 basis point hike in february as well. e.m. this year has already made a move, a massive move. brazil and others. lisa: and it has not worked. that is the biggest take away to me. it has not worked if people take a look at the deteriorating situation and say i don't know if we want to park our money here. will it work more? -- more if the fed holds off longer? jon: looking forward to doing that later. kailey, we have to discuss working from home as well. jeffries pushed it back. i thought lyft was the real headline the last 24 hours, saying at the earliest, 2023. never mind 2022, we see you in 2023. kailey: basically calling the entire next year a wash. this has been the story the entire pandemic.
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return to work as pushback because a new surge. lyft may be avoiding all of that entirely by going out this far, but i think jeffries is interesting and it will be interesting to see if other banks, jp morgan, goldman sachs, who pushed the return to office harder start to rethink their policies as we face the omicron variant. jon: is 2022 a write off now? can we say that? lisa: are you kidding? jon: let me be clear, i'm not being depressing right now. [laughter] i'm talking work from home specifically. are we done with that already? lisa: i think increasingly people are understanding the importance of getting together. i think honestly you see the and travel and in offices making accommodations. jeffries is perhaps a stalwart among the wall street banks. do you really think people will be mostly working from home year? jon: no idea. i thought you might take the bait but you have not. [laughter] the ceo of --
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i want to start here, jeff. it is in your notes and i think it is important. we look at the data, the 69 handle, the labor market report friday, looking at gdp, and you think at the headline level they look good but people do not feel it. how important is that? jeff: i think that is very important. when we try to unpack these things, we have this two-part process. we want to look at the driver's people are responding to but more importantly, the nature of the response. the drivers, it is everything we talk about, inflation this, covid, supply chain tightening, labor market tightness, fed tightening, all of this i think creating a general anxiety overshadowing what is a robust economic recovery and it is affecting the type of assets people want to own. the s&p is up 23% this year largely driven by secular large-cap growth. that is because that is the type
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of asset that to malaise in that environment. that is where the puck is out. for us, we want to go where we think the puck will be. we think, and maybe we are not at a consensus, but we think these factors normalize in 2022. including covid. we think in that environment, you will want to be positioned for what will be defensive then and what type of assets people will want to own and i think it will be things overlooked today, not to large-cap secular growth but as an example, smaller cap cyclical names are positioned well for 2022. lisa: what happens to the rest of the sectors that have benefited so well during this malaise? fa malaise leads to a 23% gain on the s&p, sign me up. jeff: i still think a lot of these larger cap secular growers can do well because they have such robust business models. i think valuations -- and i hate to be the value guy that keeps saying any valuations on a lot
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of these businesses are stretched, what i think they are. i think there are parts of the market -- we talk a lot about the barbell strategy people have gone into. you want to own growth and value, but there is an entire middle part of the spectrum being ignored. as this is with good business models nobody's paying attention to and a lot of misunderstood situations. we think that benefits from a normalization in 2022 and that is what we want to own. kailey: what kind of companies is and what you're talking about? jeff: full disclosure, one of our favorite positions is acacia research. this is like letters of an onion, the more you peel back, the more players you find. it is a misunderstood patent enforcement company but when you dig into it, you see it is misunderstood investment people, capital structure, misunderstood partnership. we think it will create
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long-term value. it has a misunderstood portfolio assets acquired in the depths of the pandemic on pennies on the dollar. what we think will matter with an investment like this, if you look out two to five years, is how misunderstood it is today compared to how it is performing. that will trump what happens with inflation and fed policy. that will trump these things people are focusing on. i think really digging into parts of the market nobody's paying attention to is a great way to invest in this environment. that is what we have been doing. jon: jeff is supersmart as always and enjoy catching up with you. jeff henriksen. and happy birthday, lisa. [laughter] jon: it's not lisa's birthday. it's tom's. lisa: we look similar. [laughter] jon: go away. lisa, can you get away from the indexable story and when people come on talk about valuations, is that a simple as saying the
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federal reserve will hike and the multiple will come in? we have been discussing that over the last few weeks and here we are with the exception of this morning as we pull back, we are basically at all-time highs. lisa: i love when stephen mader said it i not my job to understand was going to happen, it is to have an idea on what other people think is going to happen. what happens to the headline index numbers and what does that do to sentiment? what does that do to positioning on a broader level? that is the one question i have when it comes to some of these specific vets echo beyond the indexable. jon: do you have an idea on what people will think will happen next year, the 20 year spread, the high and the low? lisa: we can discuss some of the diversion points. jon: -- lisa: are we making progress?
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jon: we are not. isn't the take away the wide range of outcomes for 2022? kailey: a wide range of outcomes for everything. we see it in the forecast for the economic data and for the bond market. it is hard to find consensus in a pandemic-era market and economy. i was thinking deluca paolini -- speaking to deluca paolini and he said influence on the market is overblown. it is not monetary policy that will matter, it is earnings and earnings will be the story the drives markets. it will be interesting to see if that is a case in the coming years. jon: that has been the story big time. in the tower, we catch up with marcus, joining us from bank of america shortly, about an hour from now. you are down on the s&p. from new york this morning, good money. this is bloomberg. -- good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word
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news, i'm ritika gupta. a new study is likely to confirm years of the contagiousness of the omicron variant. it warns omicron is four times more transmissible in the early stages then delta. japanese scientists analyzed it from south africa. he found omicron transmits more -- boris johnson is moving the fight against the coronavirus on what because plan b. he tightened pandemic rules to curb the spread of the omicron variant. he also advised people to work from home and mandate so-called vaccine passports. he did rule out making vaccines mandatory. for the first time, chinese developer evergrande has a default on debt. the company is restricting default after it missed dollar bonds interest payments. the liquidity crisis has rocked china's credit market. the u.s. house passed legislation to punish china for its treatment of weaken.
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this is to rise tensions -- is expected to rise tensions between the countries. in italy, the nations regulator find amazon more than $1.2 billion. they have accused the company of practices in the e-commerce logistic market. they say they will appeal. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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pres. biden: the meeting with putin, i was very
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straightforward. there were no minced words. it was polite but i made it clear. if in fact he invades ukraine, there will be severe consequences. jon: the president of the united states on russia and the russian leader vladimir putin. from new york city, good morning. equity futures down 19 on the s&p. we declined by .4%, pulling back from close to all-time highs on the s&p 500, a three-day winning streak finally on the s&p, the first time in about a month. in the bond market, yields in to 1.4939. focus on the front and as we debate rate hikes. morgan stanley joins the club. we revise our fedco and expect the fomc to raise rates to september 2020 to two quarters earlier than our prior forecast. in 20 23, they expect another three times. they look for three hikes next year and three in 2023. lisa: the pressure is on fed
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chair jay powell next week. how much does he edify the ideas getting confirmed to markets that they will raise rates one or two times next year and follow up with additional rate hikes next year? i wonder how much flexibility bought himself that she bought himself. jon: we had the call from bill dudley. he is looking for the dot plot to shift and 2024 from 180 to 250. kailey: that goes to show you it is not just about one lift off his, it is about the pace of the cycle and how high the rate eventually goes, how far it had to get, what is our star. these are unanswered questions and the market is focused on liftoff, how the pace of tapering dictates when maybe the fed will have the capability to do so. then there is a hiking cycle that has to happen after that. jon: we start the program by talking about 2022 and the uncertainty of next week, maybe, having no idea what happens next year, the dot plot and 24 is maybe a little curious next
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year, isn't it? it is crystal ball stuff from the fomc. lisa:lisa: there is a polarity and some of the discussions, whether the fed is behind the curve in raising rates or behind the curve if they do raise rates and have to get ahead of economic slowdowns. that, to me, highlights the uncertainty you need to know. so debating 2024, you're right, is a potshot. but is good to get a guide on what the fed is thinking about. jon: let's get to d.c. and get to what this administration is thinking about with jack fitzpatrick. i want to start with a vote in the senate to strip back repeal the president's mandate. is that just optics? any substance here? jack: that's really going to end up being a symbolic vote. they did manage to get two democrats to join all 50 republicans for a majority to try to block the private sector vaccine and testing mandate. this is through the congressional review act which does require the bill be enacted
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into law. there is no plan to take that up in the democratic-controlled house. it is subject to a veto by the president if it were to miraculously get to his desk. this is a symbolic measure. a couple weeks ago, you had republicans bringing out the vaccine mandate and briefly threatening to shut the government down over -- it is clearly a significant issue headed toward 2022. this in particular is maybe a more political notable vote than anything i could become law because the president himself would have to sign into law. lisa: perhaps, though how much does it tie president biden's hands in regard to the omicron variant? especially as you see similar restrictions put into place over the united kingdom. jack: his hands may end up being tied, especially because of the court system. you did see a suspension a couple of days ago, not of this particular mandate but of the government contractor mandate,
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and there are a lot of questions about the legal standing of some of the vaccine mandates. there is a vaccine mandate for private sector employment. he does not have a lot of options. any pushback from congress that shows a majority vote in the senate against him could be difficult. the question is, does this get tied into something broader. so far, republicans are keeping their powder dry. their greatest point of leverage was the shutdown threat they backed off of. so really this issue is more in the hands of the courts than of congress. any pushback that gets a majority in the senate against the president is pretty significant. kailey: while the senate was focusing on vaccine mandates, there is a question on whether we will get the passage of the defense spending and debt ceiling extension by the time they leave for the holiday recess. what is the timeline looking like on that? jack: they are acting pretty quickly on the debt limit and
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particular. the house voted on the nda, the national defense authorization bill. we can see a senate vote as soon as today. it is a bit convoluted, on a process measure that would set of the debt limit vote. they need 60 votes for the process measure that would allow them to take a simple majority vote on any actual guesstimate increase. there is a bit of a back-and-forth and a few steps left to be done but speaker pelosi said yesterday this is going to happen by december 15 at the latest. senator mcconnell said he does expect there to be 60 votes for the early process measure. it will probably be a close vote but it does look like they are on track to take care of those two major bills in the near future. jon: just to jump in, i don't know if you've seen this, there is a 100-country summit donning today. i don't know if anybody is
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talking about it. it is a two day summit of democracy led by the united states. have you seen this? lisa: i have. i was not sure what it was. we have been talking about this with jack. taiwan was invited and that really is the headline because there is no policy prescription out of this. the response in china i'm sure is predictably unhappy. jon: just to wrap things up and put a bow on it, is this for an audience of one? is it for us or for china? jack: again, the headline i think is correct to say is about china. the inclusion of taiwan in something titled the summit for democracy, it did get a rise out of china. chinese officials called it a joke and it giot pushback. -- got pushback. it is popular to take a tough on china stance and that is the headline the biden administration was going for. jack fitzpatrick, thank you sir.
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be cautious when you hear chinese reaction is a joke. what the say on the international stage and what they do at home, there are some daylight between the things. lisa: i don't think they mean it is a joke aha ha. feels like schoolyard behavior. there is a sort of behavior arranged in one place to send a message to someone else. that is essentially what it feels like. jon: do you think this is the state of things in the western world, that we need to have a get-together of 100 countries to convince people that this is the best model at doing things? is there a bit of sadness about that? lisa: do you want me to get sad about it? [laughter] you trying to get me set and riled up and feeling depressed, i will. you have to work harder than that. jon: i thought you just get going like that, we press the button and the doom started. as tom the expert of pulling that out of you? kailey: it is his -- lisa: it is his birthday. i thought i would lighten up a little bit. i don't think i can.
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i think i need a couple beverages. jon: we pulled back from close to all-time highs on the s&p 500. tom is back next week and the seed. with lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jon: the first three new winning streak on the s&p 500, going back about a month, close to all-time highs into thursday. good morning. we are -16 on the s&p 500, down .3%. -.4 percent on the nasdaq, and the russell also lower, up by .5%. a range of outlooks have come through in the last couple weeks. morgan stanley, 4400, at the top end, be more at 5300. and rate hikes as well. that is where we have consensus. it is 2022. in the bond market, twos, tens, 30's, short of 70 after breaching that level a couple of times. 0.6757%. we talked about morgan stanley looking lonely with everyone else looking for the end of spring next year.
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our pleas in may, june, july, morgan stanley going for q1 23. that was almost there go looking ahead to 2023. in the last few hours, september 2022 is what they go with. lisa: so there is one lonely forecaster and we have to ask whether she will change her's. jon: where is she at, march 23? even tds had to come in from december of 23 over the last week or so. everyone got whiplash from that move. maybe they were not expecting such an aggressive pivot. december 15, all have it in the diary. this is what i want to talk about, in e.m. foreign-exchange. get my words out and speak clearly, emfx, over the year, is -8.5% on the jp morgan e.m. index. what is remarkable about this, brazil made a 150 basis point
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move just like in february and this has been the year of interest rate hikes. we have seen it in e.m. and it has supported the market. the story has been hiking into weakness, hiking into weakness has in the story for emerging markets. lisa: i think there was a pimco outlook and they all want to one to like the markets. they see value because of household -- how sold things are. but pervasive through asset classes. jon: i'm not expecting the e.m. style hikes next year but maybe that will be the story. i think socgen touched on that in the last aorta -- last day or so. maybe the story for next year's developed markets turn. lisa: how much can this market handle tightening? i think about the developed market. we are talking about the emerging markets, but a huge question has been what the end point will be with respect to rate hikes for the federal reserve and back pinning that is how much we can tolerate given
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the dead we have incurred, given the momentum that will necessarily be waning as the fiscal overhang starts to be a drag into next year. mark howard joining us now. you expect the federal reserve to show a projection of 25 basis point hike next week and projections coming out next year. then six rate hikes through 2024. is that sustainable given where we are in markets today? mark: good morning, lisa. it is but it will come with disruption in volatility. the outlook for markets broadly, not just for rates but for markets is based on growth and predicated on growth, predicated on a decline in reaction function to variants of the virus. and really strong balance sheets broadly in the u.s.. the corporate sector, consumer sector. higher rates are not going to have a huge knock on and
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topless over into recession. that is why you see the buying of the dead, even with a hawkish fed over the last few days, because people believe both next year will be quite solid. lisa: perhaps so. bill dudley was talking about how he thinks the backend of the yield curve is mispriced and part of this is because of ongoing quantitative easing, the fed buying bonds. does the scenario and potential for disruption increase if the fed accelerates its tapering and starts to think about shrinking its balance sheet? mark: i think bill has the direction right, and his concern about the fed being behind the curve is more -- is warranted too. but there are powerful technicals to the back end of the market. maybe you will see it with the auction you are waiting to see. we do not see a dramatic move. we see more of a flattening into the year. we think there will be a number of rate hikes, including starting june, then several more
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in 2024. that will cause the front-end to move up more dramatically, the two and five year, then the backend. the backend, there is a voracious bid for the rest of the world for that asset. that will help moderate as qt starts and the qt will started to 2024. but we do not see a dramatic repricing at the backend. jon: what is it do you think should dictate capital allocation, the front end of the curve or the long end? mark: in the near term, call it the next three to six months, it is the front-end that will be important. as you know, that is what drives rate differentials, currency market, one of the reasons we think the dollar will be relatively robust versus euro or the yen. it is one of the reasons you referred to around e.m.. -- e.m. e.m. people have the hesitation because it is not just inflation in the u.s..
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you have to talk about that tomorrow, it will be ugly. that will put upward pressure on the front-end as we keep em currencies on the back foot. that is why central banks have to keep hiking. jon: this is what surprised lisa and i, that we had this on the front-end. we are try to figure out was we have this -- out as we have this rate hike discussion, a lot of the stuff has not fallen out of bed. we have had a ton of volatility. the equity market is basically back to where we were, spreads have come in. what is that from your standpoint? mark: there are couple things. one of the most notable is the high-yield market is not your grandfather's high-yield market. we have this huge loan market and you have this huge clo market which supports the loan market which is floating-rate, and as a result, demand for those product categories has absorbed some of the pressure that would normally be in the high-yield market when rates -- when we get into a hawkish cycle. bra rowers can go into the --
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borrowers can go into the market and get their fancy meet there without pushback because the loan market and clo market have become important cogs in the wheel that there is not the same stress. the second issue is amortization schedules have been pushed out across the high-yield space and that leaves a lot lower credit stress here. not in china, of course, but here. lisa: you touched on the demand. let's talk about the supply and amount of issuance we have gotten this year that is not over. what do you make of the companies tapping the debt market? mark: thanks for asking. i do think it is a really interesting thing that does not get quite enough press these days, corporate america sending a message. you talked about it in the context of lyft and back to work but they are doing it in their financing. 2021 is the second-highest year ever for investment-great issuance at 1.5 trillion. december is the highest december ever and we are expecting
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january to be the highest investment -- second-highest investment grade month for january ever. corporate america is speaking loudly. they see growth on the horizon, higher rates, a more hawkish fed, they are taking the money now and trying to set lower coupons and a stronger runway so they do not have to worry about potentially dropping markets in the new year. i think corporate america sees growth but they also see higher rates and they want the money now. they want to fix their liability structure and that is why they have taken so much money. unlike 2020 where issuance was driven by the crisis. the left grew 1.8 trillion and was plugging the holes and cash flow. this year is about anticipating future growth. kailey: do you think that signal is being taken at face value by the market? is that kind of activity being price in as far as the meeting? mark: no. i don't know. it is hard to say. i think within the credit space, there is a pretty strong recognition of what corporate
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america is saying. in the equity space, to a degree, but they tend to focus on earnings commentary and quarterly results as opposed to what companies, treasurers, and cfos do with their liability structure. i think there is an important message there. jon: great stuff as always. thanks from the outlook. mark howard joining us from bmp on 22 and beyond ash 2022 and beyond. it is cristobal season -- 2022 and beyond. it is cristobal season. -- crystal ball season. the revised 2022, took yesterday, raising 22 s&p price target. the constructive outlook is based on projections for economic growth to the margin upside. they go on to say a pickup in buybacks at favorable discount rate despite their timing. that is the view in the last 24 hours. lisa: i wonder how much that relates to what mark howard was
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saying and your excellent question, which matters more, the two year yields or 10 year yields? if you see the 10 year yield pinned or capped in terms of how high a goes, does that give a lift to markets that have not been disrupted by some of the tightening you are seeing reflected in the front-end? jon: have we seen the move now? is this it on tuesday? p jim thinks so-- on two's. bottom line, i don't know but that is the question we will keep asking. lisa: a lot of it is pinned by what you see as a long-term trajectory of inflation and whether or not bill dudley is right or danny blanchflower of dartmouth is right because they have polarized views about the long-term mutual rate and that will dictate how much the 10 year yield can be penned. jon: did you hear -- pinned. jon: did you hear mark howard on the report? kailey: it's not going to be pretty. we were speaking earlier in the week with wells fargo who said
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the cow for a seven handle in about a month. does that move the dial in a market that largely is already priced in? is that accelerating its taper next week anymore quickly happening tightening cycle? we were expecting a hot inflation print. does it change anything or is the market add of that? lisa: as the fed -- jon: as the fed still on that inflation fades the middle of next year? that is still the baseline for chairman powell. he still believes that from what he told congress last week. that seems to be the case. lisa: the issue is it is affecting confidence. the issue is people are already restricting purchases on the margins as a result. so they have to make at least a signal. this is going beyond just whether it will face. jon: for the 200,000th time, coming up on the program, we talk about the pandemic with johns hopkins. [laughter] it's getting depressing, isn't it? lisa: you are still trying? jon: still trying. [laughter] very happy, don't know why.
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17 on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: i am ritika gupta. world health organization panel says giving two doses of the same coronavirus vaccine. a recommends against mixing and matching unless countries are facing supply problems. vexing, nations could help low and middle income countries deal with shortages. the u.s. is ramping up the pressure on iran. according to the dow jones, the administration's tightening enforcement of economic sanctions coming at a time when diplomatic efforts to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with iran has been unsuccessful so far. in china, inflation down last month from a 26 year high. the price index rose 12.9% from a year earlier, higher than estimates. that will provide policymakers room to support the economy. the consumer price index rose
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2.3%, the fastest of 2020. british employers increase starting power is at a record pace to deal with what is called an unsustainable shortage of workers. that is according to a survey by the recruitment and employment federation. it painted a picture of companies struggling to fill jobs and forced to increase compensation. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> what i think the data is telling us, it is three doses for the pfizer biontech vaccine
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will provide for omicron the same protection like the first two doses provided for the initial strain. jon: the chairman and ceo of pfizer. from new york city, good morning. tom keene is back with us next week. kailey leinz in the sea, together with lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. the s&p down .4%. the euro weaker dollars stronger, 1.3150. yields back here at 150, a brief breach, 1.4939. back below that level, down three basis points to round things out. crew down .8%. 71.79. a couple months ago, evergrande, all anyone talked about, and we get the dword overnight. kailey: finally. jon: it has not been discussed. kailey: it seems like we already have known it had defaulted on this debt. it was never actually declared because this payment was due over 30 days ago. the grace period expired on the
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sixth, monday, and it has been declared in default, cutting its rating again to restrict a default. this has been a long time coming. it now seems the conversation has moved from the risk of the contagion effect to the maybe " china will not bailout evergrande but it will provide the necessary support to provide====---- support to prevent any sort of spillover. jon: there is the move. we have to think about a couple things, not just from the financial channel but the broader economy. how much support we will need from policymakers from here now. lisa: and the perverse market reaction is positive because they see this as a reason for china to back off some tightening. and to loosen things up and give more money and leverage to the system. jon: that news is good news. lisa: i'm getting a little depressed, jon. jon: 49 minutes. i've been trying. [laughter] doctor, things for being with
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us. professor at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. yesterday, all we talked about with this lab-based study from pfizer biontech, can you help us understand the difference between a lab-based study in real-world study, how why the gap is between the two? >> the lab studies are very informative and are important but at the end of the day, what matters is what the real world data looks like. what we are seeing with infections, hospitalizations, serious disease. the pfizer study was small, fewer than 50 people. it is lab-based data, just good antibody responses to omicron with the third dosed boost -- dose boost. there's other data we are excited about, that's what we are seeing from south africa is many of the people hospitalized with omicron are on room air and don't appear to be is gravely ill as people infected with delta. lisa: i have been asking for a couple months now when we can
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transfer from a pandemic to something and make, when the illness is not severe enough whether because of immunizations or because of a variant that is less severe, to allow us to treat it like the cold. are we getting close? is omicron close to that threshold? dr. beyrer: unfortunately, the world is in a serious delta surge, so i think right now the answer is no, infections are up in europe. they are up here. we are approaching 800,000 american dead -- americans dead. we will pass that in a few days. we had 118,000 infections yesterday, most of that or almost all of it is delta. i think the answer so far is no. it does appear omicron is more transmissible, even then delta, and if it is really true, and we will know it in another week or two, that it is a milder disease, that may be something of a turning. for right now, we are in the middle of a serious delta surge.
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lisa: can you elaborate on this idea that if it is four times or more transmissible than the delta variant as one japanese study showed and less severe lent that it would cause herd immunity, and i hate to use this on tom keene's birthday, in a realistic way. how realistic is that possibility among health care professionals you speak with? dr. beyrer: herd immunity has been elusive. one of the reasons why is because one of the things we have seen with omicron that is concerning is many of the people infected with omicron have recovered from previous infections with coronavirus. so natural immunity does not appear to be that protective. what we need to see is people getting their full immunization and clearly needing to be boosted. if you look at the total u.s. population including children under five, we are only at 61% fully immunized. that is not enough to achieve
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herd immunity in this country for sure. kailey: when we look at the policy response to this in the public sector of the u.k., for example, where they put in massive restrictions on the entire country or the private sector in the u.s. where you have jeffrey saying work from home again, lyft pushing their off estate to 2023. what is the appropriate policy response in the pandemic given how little we know? dr. beyrer: i have to say i think the vaccine mandates are an important part of this. and as i have said before to you all, they are constitutional, at least as far as the 1905 case that went to the supreme court in the case of the smallpox vaccine mandate, determined to be constitutional. so i think the workplace employment mandate that president biden has put forward is a really important policy step. in the meantime, we are in the middle of a delta surge, we are seeing that related to winter and cold weather, people going inside. that means non-vaccine
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interventions like indoor mask mandates and people working from home are again going to be important. we know now omicron is here in 50 states. we are still very carefully following this to see if indeed it will be less severe lent -- less vera lint -- virulent. but we need to practice the basics of coronavirus. jon: dr. chris beyrer there. how close are we to the administration saying to be fully vaccinated you need a third to be fully vaccinated? how close are we to that now? lisa: that's a good question, especially as we get a michelle jet on the show saying he is -- gets a mischa doll joe -- then you have some data we got yesterday from pfizer bond tack from this isolated study suggesting perhaps there is more
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to this. we have not gotten this versus a health prescription and a big way. there are overlays as some of these health mandates. jon: that question has huge workplace applications as we see vaccine mandates go through. do they mean the booster now? will they mean that in the months to come when we look back? do you need a third shot to go into work? what does that mean? lisa: it's an unanswered question. this is the definition of constantly changing. you had to have at least one shot of the vaccine to go into a restaurant and now you have to have the full two dosage. will that be a 30 shot. we have spoken to scientists in the past that they may be these mrna vaccines always needed to be three does vaccines given the fact we do see efficacy waning as time goes on. jon: as the prime minister
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announced the birth of a healthy baby girl with his wife. sharing a birthday with tk. what eight when he for hours for the prime minister and the u.k.. lisa: do you think he will become the baby chair? [laughter] i'm wondering. jon: solo. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> the bond is essentially telling the fed they are making a mistake. >> i was surprised by this reiteration of the declaration of the tapering. >> we think that if and when they start to hike, they won't get very far. >> i think there is a prospect for a bit of a surprise, a bit of discomfort by markets. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. the birthday boy will be back next week. happy birthday, tk. the people making fun of the 2022 5000

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