>> we are entering a lower liquidity environment moving forward. we may >> >> have a bit of a bond bubble caused by quantitative easing. >> there's no way floor for rates because the fed has this hawkish bias. >> the is still very strong. >> the bedrock of everything is eroding in terms of its fundamental outlook. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: inflation data 24 hours away. from york city -- from new york city, for our audience

worldwide, good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro, together with kailey leinz. we are -0.3%. the data is the market's next stop. lisa: people are expecting even upside surprise. they know inflation is running hot. at what point does that push the narrative more towards fed rate hikes or more towards a flattening yield curve with the expectation the fed will move faster and quicker, leading perhaps to more normalization? jonathan: lisa, your tenure at 1.4853%. lisa: a lot of this hinges on what to look for long-term inflation will be, and what quantitative easing has done to those long-term rates. the lack of certainty right now in the market is a lack of certainty under the effect that central banks have had on distorting asset values. how much of the been a hand in the asset rallies we have seen. jonathan: some news coming from

american airlines right now. kailey: dow jones reporting american will reduce its number of international flights, purely because boeing will not be resuming dreamliner deliveries until april 1 at the earliest. when you are an airline, it is not just about the planes. it is about getting people on the planes, where the planes are allowed to go. i thought it was so interesting what we heard from gary kelly at southwest, saying it is the worst hiring environment they have ever seen. even if the demand for flights is they are coming got to get the flight attendants and the pilots on the plane as well, and the hiring environment is very difficult. jonathan: and you've got to get the planes as well. betting back to normal is proving to be really difficult. who said reopening would be cheap? lisa: i think about jeffries pushing back the coming to office until 2023, saying they work from home, we encourage it

through 2023. i wonder how much this is being driven by the virus and how much this is being driven by people's preference to stay home. jonathan: how sticky is the behavior shift? lisa: exactly. and how are some of these policies? jonathan: to be clear, mixing goals. it could be a great year. what i am saying is this return to work, they behavior had become very sticking out. it has been 18 months of it. you've got corporations turning around and seeing see you in 2022, maybe 2023. jonathan: to the point about -- kailey: to the point about behavior change and once people have proven that they can work from home, it gets a lot harder to make the case that they have to come back in. at that point it becomes a sort of compass and for talent and retention as well. jonathan: your equity market

down 15 on the s&p 500, -0.3%. in the fx market, euro-dollar negative two. going into tomorrow, that cpi report coming your median estimate, six .8% on cpi america. can become 7% if you believe the likes of sarah house of wells fargo. crude down more than 1%. we need to discuss the range of estimates on wall street for next year. at the low end, 44 hundred morgan stanley. at the top end, be male -- at the top end, bmo. a brilliant piece overnight on the bloomberg terminal and on bloomberg.com. that is the second-biggest bread of the last decade. walking into the unknown into next year. jim paulsen, chief investment

officer at leuthold weeden capital. those bands are so incredibly wide. why? jim: i think we are overdue for correction, and i think we are going to have a continuation of very strong growth in the economy. i think we will may be grow 4.5% gdp. with the unemployment rate now at 4.2%, it is going to continue to aggravate some pressures and mandate higher yields. ultimately, i don't think the fed is going to raise the funds rate until the 10 year bond yield goes back over to percent, a -- over 10%. -- over 2%. i think we are going to have another fantastic earnings year for corporations. maybe $240 on the s&p 500 were better for next year. at the same time, we are going

to finally face some higher rate pressure, and we are certainly going to have policy tightening going on through the year. we are overdue for that correction. i would not be surprised if we get a 10% to 15% pullback, and then ultimately the fundamentals keep us positive and bring us back to 5000. lisa: you have said before you we are overdue for a correction. a lot of people say stocks need to selloff a bit, and then the stocks will go back up, which is exactly what we have seen. the omicron variant was priced in for about a minute, and then people went back to buying the dip. why do you think a correction is overdue if you see this surge in demand and you see fundamentals, earnings coming in very strong? jim: what the fundamentals will do i think is keep the market from staying depressed.

but i don't think it necessarily inoculates them against prices pulling back. i believe what we have done up till now is we have marveled at how can the stock market be doing so well when there are so many issues in the economy in the economy is still struggling in so many ways. i think next year that attitude may change towards why is a stockmarket struggling when the economy is doing so well. i think we are going to fall under 4% unemployment next year and continue to have good job creation. i think optimism could also really go up next year because i think there's a really decent chance that we are going to simultaneously declare some sense of victory over covid and inflation all in the same year. i think we will clear some sense of victory and confidence could really go up, and that could also bring more pressure on

policy officials and the bond market, and that is why i think we could get a really volatile year with the fight between good fundamentals and overheat pressure. kailey: you are echoing something we heard earlier this morning, that we are putting too much emphasis on the impact of monetary policy, when really, all that is going to matter is that corporate earnings stay strong. does that not worry you about margin pressures and what that picture could look like into 2022, especially as we start to get the outlooks a couple of months from now? jim: i think that we are going to continue to have wage pressures up, but i think some of the commodity pressures are already easing out. i think inflation is getting close to peaking. it doesn't mean it is going to go away overnight. i think it will still be elevated next year. if cpi headline peaks out close to 7%, maybe it is 4.5%, 5%, it

is still higher than it has been. but if it moderates, i think that does illuminate some of the intense profit pressure, margin pressure we would have felt if this thing is truly runaway and inflation keeps going up to 10% overall. i think the bigger decision next year is less about what the market does because i think it is going to be choppy. i think it is where you are. i thing this is finally going to be a year that you move away from the s&p 500 and moved to the parts that have been underperforming for years. small caps, mid-caps, international markets. ever since the 2008 crisis, it has continued to outperform most of the time because fares have been asked because fears have been elevated since then. when you are fearful, you stick

with the biggest chip companies, well-financed, that have their own growth story outside of the economy. if optimism spikes next year on victory over covid and we feel good again about inflation, i think that will move investors away from some of those safe haven investments. the dollar may be comes down. bonds do work. the s&p 500 underperforms and broader market plays are where you want to be waited. jonathan: sounded a little bit like q1 of next year, and then that story faded. i wish we had another 10 minutes so we could continue this conversation. great work as always. coming up, we will talk geopolitics with dan tannenbaum of oliver wyman. 2021, market bad, economy good is that what we are looking at? lisa: honestly, i think the call is that we don't know a lot of things. there are a lot of risk factors, but the fundamentals look good.

that is really the story. jonathan: you can get the economy call right, get the macro call right. it doesn't mean you will get the macro call right. i had this conversation yesterday. absolutely nailed the backdrop for inflation. we end the year and i asked the question, you nailed the t word call. you said it was rubbish, but it helps you make the right call. the answer, not really. lisa: how do you factor in policy that is so uncertain that people are hedging the most in more than a year? jonathan: 1.50% on tens right now. yields in three basis points. your equity market down 16 on the s&p, -0.3%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. a new study is likely to confirm fears about the contagiousness of the omicron variant. it warns that it is four times more transmissible in its early stages than delta. japanese scientists analyzed data from south africa and found that omicron transmits more and escapes immunity. the u.s. senate has sent a message to president biden on vaccination mandates. it voted to block mandatory shots and testing for private workers. the house is unlikely to take up the measure and courts have already put the mandate on hold. it illustrates the political polarization of the pandemic. chinese developer evergrande has defaulted on dollar debt. it missed dollar bond interest payments. we asked hong kong's top regulator about the impact. >> it is a significant event.

you can't possibly underplay it. but it is basically that category of events for the financial system. ritika: evergrande has about $3 billion of debt. in new york city, the city council is expected to pass a bill that would allow noncitizens to vote in local elections. that would give about 800,000 people the right to vote in elections for offices such as mayor, city council, and borough president. the bill applies to legal permanent residents and those authorized to work in the u.s. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> u.s. open softer than we did,

and you had this massive hit to service, which we did not indulge. we had fiscal stimulus, but not a much. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. lisa abramowicz, kailey leinz, jonathan ferro. tk back with us next week, celebrate his birthday. happy birthday. i don't want to sing. nobody wants to hear me sing. we are down zero point 4% on the s&p 500. yields lower by four basis points. you want to do a poll? lisa: put it on twitter. if and when once to hear jon ferro sing, put it on twitter. jonathan: the last time i signed was a christmas song, "away in a manger." the president is speaking right now. happening now, a two day democracy summit led by the president of the united states. that is a good way of getting

out of that, isn't it? the president saying we need to stand up for values that unite us. we are getting two days of this. lisa: i think that was very illuminating. it is quite sing -- quite. jonathan: it is not for our audience. it seems this is one country, one government, one leader. lisa: and they have responded by saying it is a joke, and that would be china. how much does this antagonize them at a time when there's growing tension in that region. jonathan: we will bring you more on that. joining us now is dan tannenbaum , head of anti-financial crime act of her wyman. -- crime at oliver wyman. the options available for the united states if russia and the russian leader vladimir putin make a move into ukraine? dan: i think there's a lot of options that have been threatened by the u.s. government and its allies.

i think that last point is really important. biden has brought back multilateralism on sanctions, which is some of what begin to isolate russia when they took crimea in 2014. so i think the threat of sanctions against nord stream 2, the threats of sanctions against cutting off access of their commercial banks to the global economy comedy threats to additional oligarchs, all of these are serious threats that could have a material impact on russia. the question is what does president putin do next. does he really want to push the needle on this? jonathan: you picked up on a key feature of the difference between this administration and the previous one. i think a key feature for last week was the fact that the president had a call with allies before speaking to the russian leader and then again after speaking to the russian leader. that is a change. you are right to highlight it. on that word, change, have we seen a change from the likes of north korea, the likes of

around? when you reach for these options and deploy them, doesn't make a difference? daniel: we have talked about this over the years. i think to an extent. multilateral sanctions in part brought iran to the negotiating table, which created the jcpoa, which president trump blew up and iran began to creep out of compliance with a deal they were largely in compliance with, which forced the situation on iran today. i think really, some of these sanctions may not change behavior, but they can curb further malign activity, which may be just as significant an outcome than seeing a complete about-face then some of the things driving the actions in the first place. lisa: do we have an ally in olaf scholz when it comes to the nord stream 2 pipeline, using that as a point of leverage, as it is been reported? daniel: most of the messaging around nord stream 2 and what could potentially happen off the

back of additional russia sanctions has more been the u.s. leading that message of applying pressure to germany. certainly the u.s. had an ally in angela merkel, and it does seem that with chancellor sc holz, there is additional, you can't definitively say where that outcome will land, but it does seem like there is support from the german government. kailey: you brought up iran, so let's get back to it. the parties at play are going to reconvene today on that 2015 your deal. do you see any real likelihood they will be sanctions released, that there will be a return to that accord? daniel: it seems highly unlikely that there's going to be sanctions relief. the u.s. has made it clear that is the redline to fall back in compliance of the deal. i don't think there is a lot of

hope that iran suddenly backs down from its demands, especially with the government in place now versus when the jcpoa was an act that, but i think the u.s. has been pretty tear there won't be sanctions relief bmw at this point. if there is some caret they can dangle -- some carrot they can dangle, perhaps, but i do think a move is unlikely. kailey: do you see a likelihood that they will actually be more sanctions put into place? the dow jones reporting that the u.s. is moving to tighten enforcement on those sanctions. daniel: there's not a lot of elements of the iranian economy that are left to sanction. it has long been threatened not just in the trump administration, but the obama administration as well, the concept of secondary sanctions. unless the u.s. decides to wield

that authority, it is not really move the dial thus far. but iran itself, there's not much left to sanction there. jonathan: wonderful to hear from you. it has been too long. a headline just crossing the bloomberg's of the u.k. treasury has no plans to restart furlough after new curbs. this is the job support issue that allowed people to garon furlough, allow them to receive some payments, the neglect of a job when things open up again. it was very supportive of the labor market and the u.k., nothing that is in thing we have to focus on in the coming weeks and months. the u.k. has now implement it a much restrictions for people to work from home. let's take new york city as an example of that. if people start coming to new york city to work from the office which about all the coffee shops? what about the food stands, the corner store for their break or the start of the workday, the end of the workday? those people in london now and

cities across the u.k. who will not have that foot traffic in the coming weeks and months and won't get the support, that is an issue. lisa: this is one of the most tenuous times in the entirety of the pandemic because you have a real lack of support for further stimulus, for further support programs, given how high inflation has been running, even of the world has not gotten back to where it was before. how do you bridge this gap for people who are left out? i really ground or how much the bank of england -- i really wonder how much the bank of england will be forced to step into that role, making themselves less reliable. jonathan: this takes us back to the conversation we had 18 months ago. if they go, do they come back? we were talking about building a bridge to the other side. that's going to take about two years. lisa: did you see that rents in new york city arising at the fastest pace ever? jonathan: i can bring you some of the numbers next.

equity futures down 20. we are down 0.4%. what are they saying? lisa: they want to hear you belt out "all i want for christmas is you." jonathan: i will sing at approximately five seconds. 4, 3, 2, 1. 1.

jonathan: waiting for some jobless claims data in the united states. that coming out in a few seconds. alongside kailey leinz and lisa abramowicz, i'm jon ferro. with your economic data, here is michael mckee. michael: remember when we were surprised by the 199,000 reading? 184,000 is the reading for last week, which is rather stunning. lisa: record low. jonathan: it is a record -- michael: it is a record low it looks like, lisa, thanks for jumping in. 199,000 continuing claims. that is nothing.

strengthen the labor market. i am sure there is some explanation for this that has to do with holidays. kailey's honeymoon, all kinds of things. maybe tom is out filing for jobless claims now. this is kind of crazy. last week the number was 267,000 -- 227,000, sorry in a revised level. it is not the record. i am looking at the numbers. lisa: correct me. jonathan: september's -- michael: september 6, 1969. you are still recovering from woodstock the month before. lisa: i remember. michael: if you remember you are not there. lisa: i am 85. jonathan: we are down 17 on the

s&p. tom definitely does not remember at. if you have to go back to the 1960's, this is not population adjusted, is it? for the current population 184,000 is incredible. michael: this is crazy. as far as i know we worked all last week. lisa: when we had those numbers that came in at a post-1969 low earlier this year, people said this must be some sort of holiday does the. then the adjusted -- holiday discrepancy, than the adjusted data came in and it was lower. the jolt data shows the number of job openings increase the second-most ever, more than 11 million. michael: obviously this is a

holiday season when it is hard to seasonally adjust. last week was hanukkah, maybe that had something to do with it. lisa: they did not have anything to do with it. -- it did not have anything to do with it. carry-on. michael: it is the delayed version of what we have been waiting for, a lot of people going back into the labor force. this is the week just before the payroll survey for december. if we saw a number like this next week, you would have really big december numbers. it is also possible may be delayed hiring, a lot of people who had money in the bank and were sitting around waiting to go back to work took part-time jobs at the retailers and distributors that come up at christmas. we have to see how this plays out over a longer period and i do not think economists are making too much of this, but it is head scratching, to say the

least. jonathan: 184,000 on jobless claims. thank you. joining us is glenn hubbard, colombia professor of economics and former chair of council of economic advisors. you also have a book coming out called the wall and the bridge. i want your response, how you gauge this labor market in america. glenn: i think the labor market is improving and is in good shape. from a fed perspective the question is what about the participation rate? if everything else looks good, can monetary policy bring back the participation rate? i am skeptical. it is time for the fed to adjust. lisa: it is time for the fed to adjust is a message you have said before and you are not alone in this, especially with alexa bill dudley saying the

same thing. at what point do we start to see it reflected in wages keeping up with prices? glenn: i think that will happen very soon. in some respects it is already happening. there are law a lot of -- there are a lot of supply problems in the economy, the fed cannot fix those. the fed has been focused on the word transitory. it has backed away from that definition. the key is to stop a wage spiral from happening. the pivot to tapering and weight hikes will have to be more aggressive than the fed has talked about before. lisa: what you say to people who argue -- that some of the pressures will become less of a pressure as we get more people coming back to work. what you say given the fact that has been the regime we have been in for decades? glenn: we will see supply

pressures -- that will help. the fed has been buying back mortgage backed securities. we have very accommodative fiscal and monetary policy. those have to adjust. consensus for pce next year would be about three present -- would be about 3%, cpi more than 4%. it suggested there is still time to adjust. kailey: you mentioned fiscal policy, and michael mckee talking about the idea that may be people went back into the labor market because they have had to start drawing down their savings. what happens as that winds down and what happens to consumers tolerance of some of the higher prices they are facing? glenn: we will start to see people reentering the labor force, but there's still a lot of excess savings, albeit

evenly distributed in the population. a bigger concern may be fears of going back to work. that will have to sort itself out with the vaccine. kailey: we are seeing return to office plans pushed back for some wall street firms. if people are not going to the offices in the cities they will not visit their coffee shops or lunch places. do you see a risk of us reverting if we go back to a work from home environment as we move forward into 2022? glenn: i think most large employers want to avert that for the simple reason having people together can improve collaboration. the real issue is the focus on public health and get people back to work for all the reasons you suggest. having said that, i do not think the new world will look like the

old. companies will have to adjust. michael: can i make -- jonathan: guy make a suggestion, those empty shelves, we fill them with your new book? glenn: we are moving to a new office. i am not offering resignation. jonathan: your new book, what is the objective? glenn: it is a love letter to adam smith across the centuries, a founder of modern capitalism. basically we are living in a world of big change in a big change means good things for a lot of people but disruption to others. our policy makers to build walls on the left and the right to protect people. better to help build bridges. how you bring communities back?

that is what the book is about. jonathan: five. . you are always generous with your time. glenn hubbard making a bit of a move with very empty shelves behind him. we promise the data on the median rent in manhattan, up 23% from a year earlier, the biggest increase on record, the biggest increase in a decade of record keeping. the median is still 3.8% below where it was november 2019. compare the level of buildings with a doorman, they are up 27% from a year earlier, above where they were in november 2019. lisa: it is the opposite trend for buildings that do not have a doorman, that do not have some of those amenities, that are typically liked by the people who work on wall street in offices. who are the people coming back and renting those apartments with doorman?

probably people who may not be back to the office yet but they want to be in the city that since a big message. jonathan: do think there is a bigger demand for doorman buildings in manhattan given the change we've experienced over the last 10 or 20 years. tom always talks about the amazon boxes at the doorman shifting through the mall. as that what people need to function in manhattan? ultimately there is incremental demand. lisa: it is also refrigerated rooms for fresh director whole food deliveries. if you want everything delivered, there are things like that that make certain buildings more favorable. jonathan: i should clarify. i can function without a doorman. for tom keene to function, he needs a doorman. lisa: he needs a lot of things. jonathan: he needs a lot of things and he has a doorman. it is a very special lobby. i used to live there.

yields coming in four basis points. the data is better than decent and your 10 year yield is still style -- still south of 1.50. lisa: it suggests a tightening in the labor market that is not being priced in. people suggest maybe it is an aberration. at what point does it start leading to wage increases that because the 10 year yield to move in a more meaningful way? jonathan: will ask mike schumacher of wells fargo next on bloomberg tv. with the wonderful kailey leinz and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a special happy birthday to our good friend tom keene. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. a world health organization panel says it is best to get people does go doses of the same coronavirus vaccine. it -- vaccine combinations could

help lowood middle income countries deal with shortages. the u.s. is reportedly ramping up the economic pressure on iran. the bided administration is tightening its economic sanctions at a time when diplomatic efforts to restore the 2015 nuclear deal with iran have been unsuccessful so far. china is taking its biggest steps to rein in the surging yuan. the people's bank of china is forcing banks to hold more currencies and reserve. in italy, the nation's antitrust regulators find amazon more than $1.2 million, fusing the company of harmful practices in the e-commerce market. the company has asked banded -- has expanded its shipping services in europe. in manhattan apartment rents rose the most on record.

that is according to appraiser miller samuel. still the median rent is almost 4% below where it was two years ago. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it has become increasingly clear that omicron is growing

much faster than the previous delta variant and that is why it is now the proportionate and responsible thing to move to plan b first. we will reintroduce the guidance to work from home. from this friday, we will extend the legal requirement to wearing past -- to wearing face masks in most public venues. lisa: forrest johnson coming out with further -- boris johnson coming out with further restrictions in the face of the m across variant, taking a different direction from the united states. the key question now is how much are we protected if we have already been vaccinated and how much does a booster help? sam fazeli always wonderful to break it down for us. given the study we heard out of pfizer biontech yesterday saying a booster meaningfully increases

the protection against omicron, what should we count on? what should we do in terms of policy prescription for the meeting of fully vaccinated? sam: that data, we have to be a reminder it is just antibody data. there's a lot more to your immune system than just antibodies. nevertheless they're the easiest thing to measure and the first to measure. it does suggest you should be going for a third's stock -- for a third shot, especially given the two shots appeared useless after a few months, not over -- not only against omicron but also against delta in terms of preventing infection. that is crucial because severe disease are controlled by a much different set of immune responses. lisa: given the data we have about the booster and out of south africa about how your not seeing the same verlyn's in the omicron variant, how worried are

you now versus a week ago? sam: i am still worried in terms of wanting to see more data. i will not base my decisions about the future and how happy i will be about how things will turn out on what is coming out of south africa. nothing wrong with that data set but that is specific to south africa. very different. much younger, the spread has been very fast. once we see some data out of the u.k. and denmark, then we can start building a proper picture as to how this virus interacts with its host, i.e. vaccinated or multi-immune individuals. kailey: when you talk about the unvaccinated, and does fully vaccinated mean you have to go all through -- through all three rounds of shots in six weeks before you have full protection. what could that mean for the

case curve of omicron. even if people start to get vaccinated they are a long way to go before they get full protection? sam: there is. that has led the u.k. government where the country has a decent level of vaccination to go with the plan they have now. better safe than sorry. in countries where there has been a low level of vaccination in adults in a relatively lower level, this is a problem. delta was already in pain when it came to the spread -- was already a pain when it came to the spread. let's not forget omicron is another level of difficulty on top of what we are already dealing with. kailey: you and me and lisa have gotten are booster shots. mine hit me pretty hard and i was questioning whether i was going to go back to get another one.

at what point do we say no more boosters, we need to redesign this vaccine? sam: it is not necessarily to do with the vaccine. the problem is we are running our society based on infection rates as opposed to the severity of disease hospitalizations. as long as that is the case we will keep finding that even after a third shot, maybe at the same pace as after a second shot, which is hopefully not the case, your immune protection against the infection drops and so we start getting infections again in triple vaccinated people. how often we go through the permutation depends on what each country decides what they want to do. if it will turn out to be every four months, i am not sure we are set up to deal with that. lisa: are you saying the way we categorize the virus is wrong, that we are looking at the wrong

variable in making policy choices? sam: obviously at a time where we do not have enough information in the virus is still finding pockets of people who are at risk of developing that severe disease, even if they have had the vaccination, we have to be careful. at some point we have to move on and say the problem is not the number of infections, the problem is are we controlling the severity of the disease? maybe south africa's data, where people are talking about it being a mild disease, is telling us that. that would shape future policy as this virus continues to evolve. kailey: we have been talking about looking at the crystal ball of what the market will do in 2022. when you think about what the trajectory of the pandemic will look like, do you see reason for optimism? sam: this virus has been one step ahead of us every step of the way.

a lot of people have expected some derivative of alpha or delta to be the next variant we are worried about, and comes along omicron, which looks a little bit like a different virus given the number of mutations. i do not think it is the right thing to do to try to call a win or victory in this battle. this is an ongoing battle and i think we have a ways to go to manage this virus. we have the tools. we have the vaccines. hopefully if we need it we have a variant specific vaccine, and then drugs such as the antibodies coming out. managing the disease should be easier and easier through 2022. lisa: sam fazeli, thank you for being with us. kailey, i'm struck by the

diverted approaches in categorizing the virus and dealing with it in terms of the united kingdom and the u.s. in the u.k. suggesting people work from home, having testing regimes three implemented, it in the u.s. the senate just told biden no to his mandatory vaccination policies. the idea of how every country is taking a different approach at is time of scientific uncertainty. kailey: it comes down to political appetite and the politics of the pandemic have been different in the u.s. than other countries. the debate out of her vaccine mandates but mast mandates. that may be why you do not see policymakers putting into place more restrictive measures because that will not stand. lisa: you are saying that represented in the currency market, with implied volatility rising to the highest in a year. you can see the pound at the lowest going back to 2020 versus the dollar at 1.32.

it had been 1.31 earlier in the day. softness in the s&p but very close to all-time high. euro-dollar 1.13 as we expect the diversions next week in the central bank meeting. from new york city, kailey leinz, lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: we are reporting back just a little bit -- we are pulling back just a little bit. after a three-day pop on the s&p we are down one third of 1%.

the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. a massive spread on wall street. >> a wide range of views. >> an extremely wide band of probability. >> 4400 year end target. >> we have a 5300 target. >> this is not normal. we are in an environment where it gets tricky. >> this qualifies for the risk on trade. >> there is a lot of uncertainty. >>