paul: good morning. i'm paul allen in sydney. we are counting down to asia's major market opens. kathleen: i'm kathleen hays. welcome to daybreak asia. the world top central banks emerge as concerns flipped policymakers. they will be eyeing policy decisions from the federal reserve and 19 others this week. asian stocks up for a steady start as investors way covid

concern. boris johnson warns the u.k. is facing a tidal wave of omicron infections. and it's predicted china will start adding fiscal stimulus after beijing says stabilizing the economy is its top priority. paul: let's take a look at markets around the asia-pacific. us trillion has just opened for trade. the fickle to get a handle on things but we are flat in the early going. a couple of energy stocks performing reasonably well and we will be keeping an eye on crown, the gaming resorts company said there will not be a dividend. value underpinned significantly by its property. crown is one to watch and we will be keeping an eye on the drugmaker as well. new zealand pretty flat at the moment. nikkei futures looking flat.

economists in china predict china will start adding fiscal stimulus next year. top leaders in beijing say they want to ensure stability and that's going to be a top economic priority in 2022. for more on this, let's bring in stephen engle in hong kong. what guidance have we got from the conference that wrapped up on friday? stephen: that chinese leaders like stability, maintaining economic stability after what was a fairly tumultuous year on the regulatory front and the debt front and subsequent crackdown on the likes of evergrande. the main priorities turned out to be de-risking the property market and controlling the debt loads on these big conglomerates like china evergrande, but we've

had a confluence of economic pressures come up flareups of covid, weakening consumer demand and property weakness remains a main pillar of the economy in china. let me give you some of the key takeaways from three key economists coming out of this central economic work meeting that wrapped up on friday. that's the meeting every year where they set economic priorities for the coming year. ensuring stability is number one, but the comments at mccoury expect policymakers to start with more conventional monetary and fiscal tools such as further rrr cuts and infrastructure spending. we are likely to see more fiscal spending right in the beginning part of the year. authorities love to frontload the fiscal stimulus. look what we saw in the first quarter of 2021 -- a big jump in

economic growth and then a tapering off. then it is getting down to what economists expect, about 3.1% in the fourth quarter. they could loosen property curves and restraints on local government debt if those conventional methods, the old tools they like to use if they do not bear fruit. standard chartered says fiscal policy is expected to play a main role in supporting growth next year while housing policies will see fine tuning, not a major shift. the crackdown on the pressure and some of those property curves that have limited some of the sales have dampened sentiment and could stay in place. finally, at barclays, a call for countercyclical policies -- the first time authorities have used that phrase this year.

she said that should help ease market concerns of a sharp slowdown. sounds like a recipe for what the authorities in beijing like in stability. kathleen: good catch on the countercyclical phrasing. that's our chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle. i minister boris johnson warns the u.k. is facing a quote tidal wave of omicron infections. let's bring in ian fisher for the latest. boris johnson is warning of a tidal wave the same time the european centre for disease prevention and control says that so far cases have been a symptomatically mild. note micron-related deaths. it still seems we are quick to jump on these dramatic phrases and yet so much of this variant so far looks like it is doing what a virus is supposed to do, get weaker over time.

ian: exactly. and there are large numbers, it's incredibly infectious and it has a great ability to evade vaccines and boosters, which is why boris johnson was saying he is worried about this tidal wave and everyone should get a booster. all adults will be eligible by the end of the year. one of the issues is simple math. we have hospitals in europe and many places and in the u.s. that are overwhelmed. if omicron is highly infectious, if you have only a small number of those infectious enough or sick enough to go to the hospital, you are putting a lot of pressure on the hospitals. they are not getting as sick, not as many are going to die. it's a year after the vaccines have come and the pressure on the hospitals is way down. but still, there is that danger -- simple math.

hospitals could get overwhelmed. paul: when it comes to vaccine efficacy, there seems to be some debate. it seems -- ian: it seems omicron has a great ability to evade vaccines and fully vaccinated individuals, people with two shots. one of the johnson & johnson. now people are saying full vaccination is three. dr. fauci was on the morning shows today saying maybe the standard for vaccinations is in fact three shots while regular vaccination, which means what used to be full vaccination doesn't show a lot of effectiveness against omicron. boosters do show some help. kathleen: thank you so much to

bloomberg's ian fisher. one of the big stories is as the asian trading weekend day gets underway, is inflation policy. as expected, inflation in the u.s. came in at 6.8%, the strongest since june of 1982. markets shrugged it off because it wasn't the worst it expected. one of the reasons it remains to be seen is inflation is eating up people's paychecks, the average hourly earnings. so there is a shortage of workers and companies have to offer more money and get people to come back to work, but if inflation is so high, look what is happening to your paycheck -- it is knitting not. it's becoming apolitical issue. the white house is talking about what it is doing to bring inflation down. larry summers telling wall street over the weekend that he

thinks the fed is going to have to do not just two or three rate hikes but even more because they let the economy start overheating and they have to rein it in. but it has become a much bigger story than it was three or six months ago. paul: inflation may not be transitory. mohamed el-erian said some pretty stern ideas over the weekend. he called the use of the word transitory the worst inflation call in the history of the fed and it results in a high probability of a policy era -- error and the fed needs to regain the narrative on that word and its own credibility. he doesn't think the u.s. is past peak inflation yet. kathleen: omicron not expected so far to cause lockdowns in

many countries and that is a big deal. the banks are going to wrestle with that issue. 20 of them, starting with the federal reserve, the fed expected to speed up the taper and the forecast and what they are thinking about rate hikes and the next year could show us a rate hike move. they say it's transitory and ease prices are going to come down and now the expectation is they are going to do anything. bank of japan doesn't have any inflation. they have to figure out whether they are going to continue and what level their pandemic level business lending program is. paul: we have brazil, russia and mexico looking at the typing and indonesia might stay on hold. divergence replacing transitory, the great buzz word of 2020 one.

let's get a check on first word headlines with vonnie quinn. vonnie: the south african president has tested positive for covid-19 and is receiving treatment for mild symptoms. he was vaccinated with the single-dose johnson & johnson dose. the office did not immediately respond to requests for a comment on whether he has received a booster shot. south africa is in the midst of a fourth wave of infections fueled by the omicron variant. foreign ministers from the g7 warned russia to de-escalate activities around ukraine or face massive consequences. in a joint statement, the minister said they were united in our condemnation of the buildup and aggression toward ukraine. it has been three weeks since vladimir putin that drew up plans for an invasion that could take place though putin has denied any intention to invade. president biden has approved help for the state of kentucky.

storms ripped across the south and midwest killing dozens. biden has issued an emergency declaration mobilizing efforts for 15 counties. the president says he has spoken with the governors of arkansas, illinois, missouri and tennessee and stands ready to approve their help. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. kathleen: still ahead, the bank of japan's fourth-quarter survey is likely to be a bag. we will have the numbers what they board of -- monetary diversion is said to be a fee -- a key theme of 2022. we will talk about what that means for fixed income investment. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> you are continuing to see inflation broaden out, particular he among the service sectors. >> high inflation is a problem for the economy, huge problem for the most vulnerable segment of the population. >> we are at peak inflation from the supply chain right now. you can already see some signs of production and some of the supply chains clearing up >>. people proclaiming the supply disruptions are going to be over, they are not. >> i think it keeps pressure on the federal reserve. >> the fed vacillates with the word transitory, but they believe and i think wall street still believes this inflation problem we have is going to resolve itself. >> the inflation data is pushing the fed to accelerate tapering next week.

>> we are looking at between two or three hikes next year and two or three hikes the following year. paul: various guests reacting to consumer prices and, as we have been discussing, the central banks diverging and the split that looks to widen in 2022. they are not going to be alone -- 16 other global counterparts meeting this week, so let's get some analysis. i want to start with the cpi, what does it mean for the word transitory? are we going to see it build from fed statements? >> he has already mentioned that they are due to retire the term

transitory. i think the transitory narrative has been the biggest myths of the year and if someone mentioned we close close to 7% inflation, you would have get in -- gotten left out of the room, but that is where we are. and it is global as well. it's not just a u.s. phenomenon, it is deep-seated and global. paul: we were talking about mohamed el-erian earlier, calling it the worst inflation call in history of the fed. where do you place the odds of a policy error? >> you have to look at central-bank playbooks and how they respond. the table currently exists for a

crisis such as covid in the way we characterize it is central banks potentially go down the elevator shaft, they go straight to zero and then dial up qe. however, it is quite varied and divergent. you go up an escalator and it's a case in which you go up or the number of steps central banks take is certainly the big unknown here. if inflation was the buzz word for 2021, i think divergent monetary policy will be the buzz word of 2022 and beyond. kathleen: a lot of bond measures seem split to the right now. some are very sure the fed will only due to rate hikes and they can just sit back and the fed is not going to upset their apple card. you've mentioned your concerns they might have to start taking

away the candy, all the bonds they purchased and liquidity that helped keep bond yield so low and stocks keep rallying. but which side are you one? where is your bet? >> my bet is that they do hike and it's only six months ago the fed wasn't even talking about talking about tapering, so it has been a significant downturn. in order to ensure they avoid that policy error, to avoid inflation that becomes more persistent and more broad-based, we are expecting two or maybe three points from the fed and a similar pace in 2023. however, the key determinant for

the pace of those is going to be financial markets to ability. we know the fed's dual mandate is employment and stability or inflation, but there is the unwritten mandate, which is financial market stability. to the extent we see volatility in assets, it might give the fed reason to pause, and that is something we will have to pay attention to as the taper progresses and prices come into play later next year. kathleen: the two-year note yield keeps rising. the 10 year rally to bit on friday after that number. what does that mean? how do you interpret that? if i'm a fixed income portfolio manager like you? >> interpretation varies with fed hikes.

i think the front end of the curve, yields rise in the back end isn't doing too much. there is a perceived interpretation that a flat yield or inverted yield could lead to a recession. that's something that is probably not a 2022 story. we do believe we will have transitory throughout the next year but i'm not concerned about a recession. from a bond portfolio managers perspective, as it flattens, you don't go out for the duration risk. we had enjoyed flattening in our portfolios over the last few months and we do think that continues for the next number of months, but keeping your interest rate risk at the front end of the yield curve is one

way to mitigate that volatility. we have seen interest rate volatility climb higher and higher throughout the year as policy uncertainty has taken hold. kathleen: thank you so much. moving on to indonesia, the finance chief cut estimates with a fresh round of tax hikes. >> inflation rates are low if you compare it with the united states and europe. first, [indiscernible] we are very good lucky with very good weather in the past years. we see [indiscernible]

we don't see yet supply disruption as we have in the united states as well as europe, so there is more or less a demand increase, but we are not in the position like in the united states as well as in europe. especially on the commodity price, especially on the energy price. >> it doesn't seem as though you're going to be able to be cured deficit target for 2023. what are you going to do to address that? >> this year, we are expecting

the deficit to be lower than last year, 5.1, five .3, or 5.4%. i think we are at the lower end. because of the strong revenue and growth, we are showing around 15% of revenue growth for this year. next year, there are a couple of things that we will be able to reduce the deficit, but we are expecting it is going to be much lower than that. why? because we expect additional revenue from the tax reform and we are expecting next year is going to be the last year. we will reduce the need for

financing. i think we will have a much lower dividend and for 2023, to get the maximum debt certificate, i think we have a very good chance. paul: the indonesian finance minister speaking exclusively with bloomberg. 20 more to come on "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

>> a check of the latest business flash headlines. sbi holdings secured in a-shares in its offer. the brokerage will hold a 48% stake in shinsei. and kkr has given its co-ceos

incentive packages if they meet all their targets in the coming years. they would have to wait five years to receive the full payouts. next, global

kathleen counting down to the start of trade in tokyo and seoul. japan, data is due. big reports in the next 30 minutes starting with the boj's sentiment survey. expected is weak sentiment in manufacturing. also a sense of how exports are going to look for japan. industrial production, and financial services. sbi holdings has enough shares

to take control over shinsei bank. we will also get data over the first 10 days of december. the government is likely to freeze electricity and gas charges in the first half of 2022. president moon jae-in is in australia for a meeting with a student prime ministers scott morrison. paul: staying with korea, one of the country's biggest conglomerates is jumping into the metaverse. it is investing heavily in crypto and it once every portfolio company to have a metaverse presence. let's bring in our seoul bureau chief. peter, this seems out of character for these big south korean conglomerates. peter: yes, on the surface it seems like that. this is a company that is heavily invested in the traditional industries like construction, petrochemicals, and of course, chipmaking.

but if you look back at their history, they started off as a polyester fiber maker. then they would engage in new emerging technologies and new businesses, and that is why they are the third-largest conglomerate in korea. so this is not a surprise in terms of the historical direction. they see this metaverse world -- it is really huge, obviously, and i think our own bloomberg intelligence just the other day estimated that the market, the metaverse market could be 108 billion dollars in two years. so nsk group is moving where the money is. kathleen: what steps are they going to take? these are big numbers but it is still a bet that has yet to

become fully realized. peter: also it is very vague. every day the concept of the metaverse changes. so it is a very fast-moving market. right now, it seems they are primarily trying to put money into whatever could have some technology or service wargaming that touches on the metaverse world. so this investment, part of this was, i think they were saying earlier that they want to spend about $5 billion investing in companies that are related to the metaverse world. kathleen: wow. well, we will see where it goes. seoul bureau chief peter pae, things for joining us. let's get to the first word news with vonnie quinn.

vonnie: the divergence among top central bankers. 20 rate decisions are due this week including from the fed, boe, and other countries. others want to tackle inflation and others want to tackle demand. it's impact on growth and price pressures will be key in decisions next year. economists predict china will start adding fiscal stimulus in early 2020 two after authorities laid out key goals in their annual policy meetings. priorities include stabilizing the economy. the hawkish language on real estate suggests that a pretty curbs will remain. a growth target will be revealed in march. prime minister boris johnson is warning u.k. faces a tidal wave of omicron infections. modeling suggests the country could face 75,000 deaths this winter if measures are not imposed. johnson said an end of your deadline to the country's

booster vaccination program has been set. new lab data from south africa indicates that two shots of the pfizer vaccine are just 22.5 percent efficacy against symptomatic omicron infections, but they count toward severe disease. the variant results in a 41-fold reduction in the levels of neutralizing antibodies. still, they said a booster shot could increase immunity, backing up studies carried out by pfizer. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i have vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: thanks very much. an alibaba employee who accused the manager of sexual assault was reportedly fired last month. the employee told local newspapers that she was accused of spreading false information,

after claiming she was raped by a senior manager. our greater asia executive editor has more details. john, where is the story heading next? john: well, we don't know what the reaction will be from the public. obviously, this woman told the newspaper she was terminated over the weekend and that is just getting out to the public. back in august when her claims first came to light, it caused quite a reaction, especially the most of the technology sector here. it was back in august when she said she was sexually assaulted by a manager and a client during an alcohol-fueled dinner. later on the police investigated, sadly didn't find evidence that they were able to use to charge that manager with rape. they did investigate an allegation of forcible indecency but he was eventually led off. he did 15 days in detention before he was released. he did lose his job and alibaba

did fire an additional 10 other people who were there, for their role in releasing information. these claims were originally posted on an internal forum and two people were fired by alibaba earlier for releasing those kathleen: is this the way these kinds of things are handled in china? if you want to say there is a metoo evolution, where is china on that path, and where is it heading? john: the metoo movement here in china has had its fits and starts, really. a lot of instances go unreported . this lady who told the newspaper that she was terminated by alibaba also told, she said lots of women reached out to her and told her similar stories, but they are scared of repercussions so they have not reported the incidents to their company, to police. a case like this, where a woman

does come forward and then is seemingly as a result of this, lose her job, is not going to help the situation at all. kathleen: thank you so much, greater china executive editor, john wu in beijing, with a recap of that story -- john liu. more from the days big newsmakers, and in-depth analysis from the team broadcasting live from austria in hong kong, you can listen on the bloomberg radio app. stay with us.

paul: former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers says the highest inflation a three decades confirms that price pressures are not transitory, and they could take years to work through the system. he and another guest book to bloomberg's david westin. >> we are having it confirmed that it is not transitory, and i think everybody recognizes now with the statement from chairman powell, statements from secretary yellen, that this is not just going to go away of its own accord. that the fed will have to take some substantial action to control inflation unless there is some kind of other adverse development in the markets or

something of that kind. but we have put in motion for the first time in 40 years, excessive inflation caused by overheating of the economy, and that will have to be worked out of the system, and that will probably not be such an easy thing. >> also with that, how easy it is -- steve, do you agree, what are the prospects that the fed can do to slow this down without causing some damage to the economy? >> i completely agree with larry, it is a problem that was not created in two months, it was over the last two years, so it will take multiple years to work it out. i don't want to predict that we will go back to where we were in the late 1970's, but i was with paul volcker when he announced his policy and i watched it happen and it took years to get out of that. . it will be painful. it will be painful for growth. it is going to be painful for

jobs. we have an election coming next year which will be complicated. >> listening to the white house, they still say it may be transitory. one thing they point to is guest crisis, it is artificially -- gas prices. what about the difference between headline and so-called core? >> there are transitory elements in inflation, no question about it. but here's the thing, if you look at annual rates, take this month's number and you annualize it, it is 10%. a lot of that is no doubt transitory, to say that a lot of it is transitory is not to say that you will get price stability on its own. there is another point, we always talk about the things that are high and might be transitory. house prices on every index, rental prices on every index except the consumer price index, our app 20% over the last year -- are up 20% over the last

year. the vast majority is not in the consumer price index, but it is probably coming. every person i talked to says, we will have much higher labor costs going forward to retain our people, we will have higher input costs, and it is kind of ok. but that is an environment where there are pressures in many places for higher prices, not falling prices. one of the benign sectors is medical services. but as you see all the nurses who are quitting, there's going to be pressure there. as you see all the backlogs of elective procedures from the last year or two, there are going to be backlogs there. so i think we are going to entrench inflation way above 2%, perhaps in the 4% or even higher range, unless something happens

to break the current mood, to break the current trend, and i don't think it's going to be three rate increases or two rate increases next year. i mean, remember this, monetary policy today is far looser than it was a year ago. looser is measured by real interest rates. looser is measured by financial conditions. loser is measured by the size of the federal reserve's balance sheet. so we have got looser monetary policy even as job vacancies are way up, and even as inflation is way up, as well. kathleen: former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers, and willett advisors chairman steve rattner. ♪

paul: tracking the fallout of the global supply chain crunch. these are the top stories. returning home to celebrate the see festival early next year will mean a shortage of port workers. in goods from factories in china to consumers around the world relies on an integrated network of coastal sea vessels run by independent companies to haul containers off and on mega ships. the government will establish an office to work on the ship-related supply-chain security and act as a command tower overseeing economic security issues, including ensuring a stable supply of semiconductors. and in germany, tsmc is in talks with the government about establishing a plant there. this comes at the european union and others to increase domestic sheep reduction -- chip production. kathleen: i want to pull up this

chart from our oxford economics on how supply chain stresses eased in november. the report says omicron is slowing the pace at which supply chain problems are resolved, and achieved thus far.e progress bloomberg terminal users can read more about stories quinoa newsletter "supply lines." dhl supply chains global chief operating office says supply chain issues are unlikely to go away due to disruptions created by the growth of e-commerce. he told bloomberg television about doubling the count of robots at the world's largest contract logistics provider. >> doing this season, we have to hire about 16,000 people. we did, start early we did plan ahead of this, and at the same time, we had to double our automation. 1500 robots that help.

because of that, we have -- we are on par with -- at the moment. so it is also about planning ahead and knowing ahead what is going to come. on the other hand, i agree, the labor cost increase is there, we have already seen that as well. 15%, we have seen, in some cases around the u.s.. another point i wanted to make is, in my view, the supply chain disruption at the moment is not a one-time thing. the growth of the e-commerce, supply chains are now organized differently. there are hops and jumps at the end of the supply chain. all the stores, wholesalers, distributors that used to be in between are less, that is where you get more disruption in the supply chain. that is not going to go away. it is just that our customers

need to planet differently in the future to be able to deal with this. kathleen: that suggests you will also need to plan differently. are you adjusting some of your thinking about how you manage things as a result of your customers changing? >> we are assisting -- real estate to make sure we have fulfillment centers close to the customer. that is one element. we are starting to invest heavily in robotics to make sure that --. you have to solve it with automation and with robotics at the same time, and make sure we train our people in a different way so the people can grow with us and stay with the company as well. those three elements together a very important. >> how much does it cost to ship a large box now compared to,

say, december of 2019? what kind of growth have you seen? >> depends where it comes from, what product it is. >> from berlin to new york city? >> that will definitely be, at the moment, i could say, that would be about twice the cost. paul: the dha supply chain global cio office carter bulk speaking with bloomberg anchors. don't miss an exclusive interview ahead. this ceo joins us later. this is bloomberg. ♪

kathleen: breaking news, the back of japan's quarterly survey, where they talked of small and medium-sized businesses, manufacturing services, about their outlook, is just breaking. some of this aligned with expectations. this is sentiment from people working at the large manufacturing companies. that index was unchanged. it did not weaken in the fourth quarter as expected. services got stronger.

the manufacturing index was at 2 in the last quarter, it is up to 9 now. we have a guest joining us now. i don't know if you can see these numbers, but it looks like the small manufacturing index improved. still at -1. we have the services index getting a little less weak, at -6. how do you assess these headline numbers, for a very important look at what the economy is doing? >> well, i think the manufacturing is supposed to be ok, but because of the global supply chain problems they stack through october. but through november, the semiconductor chip shortage improving, so i think we will start to see a pickup in exports to china and other countries. all depends on this new variant.

but for nonmanufacturing sectors, at least on the large companies, because we have a lot of flexible mobility now, very limited number of covid-19 cases , so there is more activity. john: we have also just had the call, machine orders for the month of october, a pretty good beat, an increase of 3.8%. the market was expecting 1.8%. what is driving that? sayuri: that was better than expected, at least to me. the programs are improving for the chip shortage. and also japanese manufacturers are already seeing these things

improve. they started to see a lot of orders and exports. so it was expected. much better development in october to december. kathleen: what do you expect from the back of japan? it seems like there is uncertainty around omicron that maybe it will not be as bad even if it is transmissible, etcetera, what do you think people say about the economy? sayuri: it is very unique to see very little information in japan now. the headline is just 0.1% but producers are saying the piece is 9%. in the u.s., inflation is at 6%. what does it mean? it means a company that is growing from very expensive commodity prices, but unlike the u.s., japanese companies are not able to pass those increases in

import costs to the consumer prices. this leaves consumer demand quite weak. having said that, i don't see any reason why they boj is able to change their policy stance. they will continue to maintain low interest rate policies. sayuri: we have got about one minute left, i wonder what your thoughts are on the fate of the bank of japan's pandemic support plan meant to expire in march? stick with that man or reassessed in light of omicron? syuri>: the bank of japan may extend. one of the reason is because the balance sheet may drop. that is why we saw a pickup in the bank of japan balance sheet. one reason the bank of japan forward guidance is staying

until they get above 2% inflation, they have to increase the monetary base. this is the wide contradiction they are facing now. paul: former bank of japan monetary policy board member, sayuri shirai. thank you for joining us. the market opens in japan and seoul are next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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kathleen: welcome to "daybreak asia." paul: asia's major markets have just open for trade. asian stocks look set for a study start as investors wake over concerns. boris johnson warns that u.k. faces a tidal wave of omicron infection. investors also eye a key central

bank decision. an economist to predict china will start adding fiscal stimulus in early 2022 after beijing says stabilizing the economy is their top priority. kathleen: let's look at how some asian markets are opening. getting a look at japan and tokyo. the nikkei moving up more than 1%. it is interesting because the large manufacturing companies index of business sentiment in the quarterly tankan survey did not tick up a bit. it was unchanged. it looks for now, at least for stocks, that they continue to climb. the fact that the s&p 500 and the nasdaq both rose on friday. s&p hitting another record, even after inflation came in at the highest since june of 1982 in the u.s. that resilience in stocks seems true to sentiment there. we can see that the yen is

weakening just a little bit. maybe if risk sentiment is good you do not need to buy so many yen. the 10 year yield showing a little bit of a change. let's move onto the kospi, because it was under pressure last week as virus cases have risen. they seem to be gaining more positive sentiment, seems to be following true again on the first day of the asian trading day, perhaps risk is back on a bit in the world despite rising inflation in the u.s. and other countries. of course this week from the bank of korea, we will get a sense from their minutes of when they see their next rate hike. a deputy governor at the dok saying they are watching micron cases closely to assess the impact on the economy there. looks like the juan is getting some strength there. paul: also getting strength, the asx in positive territory.

.5% right now. the gains are fairly broad-based, most of the sectors are higher. energy and materials, two of the strongest performing sectors. csl as well, flat, but confirmed earlier it is in discussions regarding a potential deal. csl saying there is no guarantee it is actually going to happen but the company confirming those rumors which have been swelling. new zealand losing a little bit of ground, the index off by about .33%. kiwi and aussie dollar's slipping a little against the greenback. kathleen: let's bring in chris weston, head of research at pepperstone group. great to have you as we see how asian markets reacted too many things, including how the u.s. markets reacted on friday on that very hot inflation report. what is key next? i know that you are in the camp that says two rate hikes the

fed, we get the decision on wednesday. do you still hold that view, and is that a risk to bond investors and may be a risk that points to a higher dollar? chris: yeah, it's easy to continue with the central bank divergence theme. it will continue to be one of the biggest themes into next year, and people will actively continue to position portfolios for that situation. whether we continue to see the spread differentials between u.s. treasuries and respective of the markets, that has been a major driver. that is what we are going to need to see. we are going to need to see u.s. treasuries a selloff more aggressive than other markets to continue to boost the u.s. dollar. but what i like is that for the first time in a while, we are going into 2022 without the dollar being a can -- a significant consensus trade. one of our strategists is saying the dollar is still very bullish. the euro-dollar, medium number

is about 1.17, which is higher than where we are at the moment. so that is a big positive for the u.s. dollar, but we will need to see yield differentials continue in that direction. to me, i stay in the camp that we go for two. i know some people are calling for more than four now for next year. the issue with two gives you a little bit of a buffer if we are to see a correction in risk, a drawdown in financial conditions, which i think will happen at some stage. then obviously rate hikes will be priced out. and if we have some elements of tactical positioning in that situation. you need to be open-minded. we could see more than three. but if we do see the draw down, if we're going to see markets correct, a lot of that rate hikes will be priced out and it will give you that buffer. kathleen: how much does it depend on what other central banks do? let's say the fed hikes two, three, four next year, but if

they signal they are on the path for higher rates, it will be enough to convince people of what their intent is. so what about diversions, then? is this whole move into dollar accentuated if other central banks lag? is it mitigated a bit if they don't? chris: it is a fantastic question, because the divergence theme is still very much one of the big macro plays, especially in fx markets. as we look at that closely what is priced in. we also have to look at the starting point. we have a meeting this week where we are toying with the idea of will we get a complete closure, will we see a whole closure of the asset program by the end of 2022. also potentially even earlier than that time. excuse me. then you have the rba. the market is discounting a similar path as the federal

reserve, but the rba refused to go to the open-minded stance. they are saying we are still looking for rate hikes in 2023 and beyond. a lot depends on wage pressures there. but the market is like, these guys need to change their tune. at some point they are and they are going to keep apace with the federal reserve. they are hellbent on that. then you are going to see the aussie under pressure and the dollar rally. a lot depends on china as well. you have to look at where we are as a starting point and look into the future into 2023. it's very easy to say you like the dollar. it is easy to love the dollar, because you have an element of potential safe haven play if you see drawdown as well. but i think the relative -- is really important. paul: so it is easy to like the dollar, but i spoke to a number of people last week who see very good without -- very good value

in e.m. at the moment, particularly indonesia. chris: i don't really focus on e.m. but obviously a lot has happened in terms of heavy lifting from e.m., and we are going to see more of that this week. there are a significant amount of e.m. that are going to be coming out, some will be doing rate hikes. if we are going to move into a restrictive world and a more normal setting from policies, it really depends on real rates. if we are going to see the u.s. real rate move up sharply, if we are going to see an element of steepening, we really do not want to be putting statements out at the moment. we could say that about the flattening continue to play out. if real rates in the u.s. are to move up to -50 basis points, which is a decent move in this environment, then e.m. will still be very underweight. we will be a tough time to be an e.m.

you still want to continue to be in u.s. dollars in a situation. let's have a look at what happens in the yield curve and real rates, and then we can look to 2022. paul: you mentioned the rba. we are not going to hear from them again until february. the market for us to the rba's abandonment of its bond buying program. there is a huge diversions when they think they will raise market rates and when the market will do it. will the market force the rba's hand again? chris: if anyone will force anyone into anything, it will be the market forcing the fed to pivot. we have already seen the fed pivoting pretty hard. what i think is interesting here in australia is we have just had markets hellbent in their belief of what will happen for so long. we have had aggressive rate hikes being priced into the curve for weeks now, if not months. people listened to what philip lowe and the board said, but

they have made their mind up that we are going to see inflationary pressures. philip lowe can come out and say we need to see 3% in wages before we start as a starting point, but they are hellbent on the belief we are going to see lift off this year and it will keep pace with the federal reserve. part of the nuance you have seen with the rba's language is they want to keep pace with the fed. but as long as the fed is going on this road the market is in tune that they will follow suit. paul: chris weston, thank you so much for joining us. let's get to vonnie quinn for a check of the first word headlines. vonnie: prime minister boris johnson is warning the u.k. faces a tidal wave of omicron infections. new modeling suggests the country could face almost 75,000 deaths of this winter if additional control measures are not opposed. johnson has set an end of your deadline for the country's booster program. every adult should be offered an additional dose by the end of december. he south african president has

tested positive for covid-19 and is receiving treatment for mild symptoms. he was vaccinated with a single dose of johnson & johnson shot in february. his office did not immediately respond to requests from comment on whether he received a booster shot. south africa is in the midst of a fourth wave of infections fueled by the omicron variant. foreign ministers from the g7 have warned russia to de-escalate its activities around ukraine or face massive consequences. in a joint statement, the ministers said they were united in condemnation of russia's military buildup and aggressive rhetoric towards ukraine. the u.s. has warned for weeks that vladimir putin has drawn up plans for an invasion that could take place in early 2022, though putin has denied any intention to invade. president biden has approved help for the state of kentucky. storms ripped across the south and midwest late friday in the united states, killing dozens. biden has issued an emergency

declaration mobilizing federal assistance efforts for 15 counties. the president says he has also spoken with the governors of arkansas, illinois, and tennessee, and is ready to approve further help. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. kathleen: still ahead, we will get insight on beijing's economic policy worries with bert hoffman. next, our exclusive interview with the indonesian minister as she weighs in on the latest budget and tax reforms. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪

kathleen: omicron is

complicating monetary policy around the world. 20 central banks this week will put a spotlight on diverting paths, with some turning to tackle inflation while others feel they have to keep stoking demand. let's bring in enda curran. is this a really unique or special diversions that we are seeing between major central banks, and what is causing it? enda: i would not say it is unique. there has always been diversions through the cycles over the years. but that is a pretty stark one. all the central banks early in the pandemic were synchronized. thinking they had to do everything they could to support the economy. but the exit from that support is anything but synchronized. you are going to have the fed talking about tapering, maybe hinting at an interest rate hike. you have the european central bank, the bank of japan remaining doggedly dovish. the bank of england possibly

tiptoeing away from expected rate hikes. the people's bank of china has already started to ease again. they have shifted policy in the other direction. so there is no doubt that while i would not describe it as unique, it is certainly underscoring how complicated the exit from these massive stimulus measures has proven to be because there is no clear path out. some economies are focused on inflation and some are having to stay focused on growth. paul: one of the great variables in this mix is the omicron variant of the coronavirus. so what kind of scenarios are central bankers thinking about here? enda: this is really the wildcard. we all know it is a wildcard around us and every walk of life anyway, but for policymakers, the big questions are, ok, just how effective are vaccines against it, and that will determine what kind of restrictions need to be imposed on people's movement and how they can work, etc. that will by extension impact is gnu -- impact consumer spending

patterns. that will flow through to the whole supply demand debate. so omicron is absolutely critical to how the world economy gets back on its feet next year, whether the recovery endures or whether it's put to one side because governments have to reimpose strict lockdowns. we just have to sit and wait and see over the coming weeks that will dictate economic policy for much of 2022. paul: all right. chief h economics correspondent, enda curran. prime minister boris johnson is warning the u.k. is facing a tidal wave of omicron infections and set an end of year deadline for boosters after the number of new cases doubled sunday. let's bring in emma o'brien for the latest. this surge the u.k. has seen, what has been the response so far? emma: they have raised their

covid alert by a notch. as you said, cases have quite quickly escalated. more than 1200 new infections on sunday, up from some 600 the day before. boris johnson address to the nation in quite a short speech. he said they are facing an omicron tidal wave, and brought forward a deadline for the booster program there, so everyone eligible over the age of 18 in england should have been able to have gotten a third dose by the new year. that's the new target there. but obviously trying to get in front of this one, boris johnson, and put in place a sort of structure whereby he appears to be responding to this and trying to mitigate the surge that we are so obviously seeing, but also very mindful of the fact that families want to be celebrating christmas together

after curbs last year. kathleen: let's move onto china, emma. it still has not approved the pfizer biontech vaccine, even know it is in use around much of the world now. your team has a story today on how that is affecting one of the country's conglomerates. emma: yeah, it is a fascinating story, really. the drug making arm of one of china's conglomerates there, they had a quite prescient deal early on in the pandemic where they got the distribution rights for the pfizer biontech mrna covid vaccine, which at that point had not even been really developed. they got the distribution rights for greater china. now, they have been rolling out shots obviously in hong kong, some have been getting into taiwan and macau as well. but over a year into the dissemination of vaccines, china

has not approved or authorized this vaccine, or any foreign vaccine for use in the mainland. which is sort of -- paul: all right. bloomberg managing editor emma o'brien there. we're going to take you over to the australian capital now. seeing some live pictures of australian prime minister scott morrison with the south korean leader moon jae-in. south korea and australia have signed a defense industry memorandum of understanding. also signed a clean energy technology partnership. and also signed a critical minimal supply memorandum of understanding. jon of course has recently been restricting supplies. local media here in australia reported south korea will be using military transport to fly 27,000 leaders from australia. this is a key material for

reducing emissions of diesel vehicles. south korea for its part has been a bit more cautious on its china policy. it is not joined the diplomatic boycott of the winter olympics, but president moon in australia to shore up a very important partnership with the country, and these memorandums of understanding being signed from the defense ministry, and critical minerals supply as well. those are live pictures of prime minister's scott morrison and moon jae-in. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

kathleen: oscar to box so supply chain issues are not likely to go away due to disruptions created by the growth of e-commerce. he also told bloomberg television about doubling the count of robots at the world's

largest contract logistics provider. >> we have this year, during this season, we had to hire about 15,000 people. we have been able to do so because we did start early on, we did plan ahead of this. and at the same time we had to double our automation. we now have about 1500 robots that help. and because of that, we're actually on par with orders as we speak at the moment. so it is also a little bit about planning ahead and knowing ahead about what is going to come. but on the other hand i agree that the labor cost increase is there, and we see that as well. in some cases we have seen around 15% around the u.s. the other point we also wanted to make is in my view, supply chain disruption we are seeing at the moment is not a one-time thing.

because with the growth of e-commerce, supply chains are now organized differently because to get major hubs and jumps at the end of the supply chain. that is the end consumer. all the stores and wholesalers and disturb her tears that used to be between are now less, and that is why you get more disruptions in supply chains. that is not going to go away. we are helping our customers with that. they need to plan differently in the future to cope with this. >> that suggested that you will also need to plan differently. are you adjusting some of your thinking about how you manage your business as a result of your customers changing theirs? oscar: there are a few elements. we're investing to make sure that we have facilities close to the end customer. that is one element. we are investing heavily in collaborative robotics to make

sure -- because you cannot all solve it with people. you have to solve it with automation and collaborative robotics at the same time. and make sure we treat our people in a different way so people can grow without th -- grow with us and stay with the company. those three elements are very important. >> how much does it cost to ship a large box now compared to, say, december of 2019? what kind of growth have you seen? oscar: depends a little where it comes from and what it is. >> let's say a portion from berlin to new city. oscar: the one you just bought. at the moment, at this very moment i would say it would be at least twice the cost. paul: dhl supply chain global ceo oscar de bok speaking with bloomberg. let's get a quick check of the

latest business flash headlines. tsmc says it is an early-stage contact with germany about building a new plant. they have not picked a location yet. we are told the company will consider various factors including government subsidies and the talent pool. discussions come as the eu and others look to increase production to mitigate future supply chain disruptions. an amazon warehouse collapsed and killed at least six people on friday. it is amplified returns of the company's mobile phone ban. the building was reduced to rubble after being hit by a tornado. amazon workers shows the incident shows they need access to phones for information updates and emergencies. and bond relax to their phone ban during the pandemic but it is slowly being reintroduced. coming up, china's economy facing mounting pressures on multiple fronts. we will discuss the outlook with bert hofman, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

paul: china has stressed it will aim to keep the economy expanding in stable manner next year as it looks to counteract the effects of a property slump and slower growth. at the end of the economic work conference, the top decision-makers said the top priority is ensuring stability. let's bring in bert hofman, director at the national university of singapore and he served as the bank director for china. what are the key pressures facing the chinese economy and

how do policymakers ensure stability? bert: the theme that came up 25 times in the release after the meeting. there are some concerns around the real estate sector. demand is slowing. consumption has not caught up with pre-covid in part because services are still at a bottleneck. there has been a supply shock and energy and some of the covid related closures of ports have given some of the supply shock. authority see a weakening of expectations going ahead. there is a clear weakening of growth. 7.9% in second quarter. 4.9 any the third. something between three and four in the fourth quarter, which would add to a growth a bit less than many people expected. maybe around eight or set. paul: if we look at some of the rhetoric, the word stability comes up time and again but we

have also been hearing about common prosperity. no more recently, housing is for living in. as the ccp remembering that second c stands for communism? bert: the release talks about seven areas of policy. five areas of theoretical and practical consideration. common prosperity is part of the latter. we are still figuring out what we are doing. we are leaving it transfers from rich provinces to poor provinces. we are looking as social security but we have not decided. in housing, a contrast. they are quite specific. the most important thing to note is that the document says the problem is largely for enterprises to solve. the evergrande has to resolve

the issues they have with current debt repayment. no bailout. no massive stimulus in that area. they do say we give appropriate support when there is genuine demand for housing. it is not a mixed mash-up but the emphasis on there will be no bailout. china has chosen to bite the bullet on the real estate sector. that may lower growth in the coming few quarters. kathleen: such an important sector for china's economy. something like 30%. if you look at this, china new or maybe they did not know there was so much growth in speculation. your move to tighten up on the big developers seems to have precipitated a lot of what happened. do you get any sense they are still going to say nobel out but they are part of the -- no

bailout but they are part of the reason they will have to work so hard to maintain stability in the economy? bert: on the positive side of the balance sheet, you do see a bit more flexibility in monetary policy. it is still prudent but flexible. it signals they have loosened up a little bit. it happened last week with the reserve requirements. i can expect a little more loosening. there is no target for macro deleveraging, which was in the previous work conference. it provides more flexibility for the authorities. third is on flix -- on fiscal policy but did the proactive fiscal policy maintained. i think authorities have realized the fiscal mechanisms for giving a bit of a fiscal boost have not worked very well this year. they are looking at early release of the bonds quota and perhaps a bit more in the fiscal

sphere so that local governments can make the investments that would make up for some of the reduced demand that would come from real estate. kathleen: do get any sense there is concern even though there was a barrage of commentary from some of the top institutions in china showing authorities are trying to manage the evergrande collapse? it is ok, we have it under control. do you think there is some sense that as they move forward with the tightening up on sectors, they have to move a little more slowly or take steps that are not going to trigger similar situations? bert: possible. what is significant from this meeting is the central government has decentralized a problem. they made a local government problem. that is where the workouts are going to happen that may involve some of the local funds to smooth over for those realistic

companies in trouble but there is not going to be a central solution. that is the most important thing to see. not all real estate companies are in trouble. there is a genuine demand for new housing particular in the first tier and second tier cities. that would continue. it is a big chunk of the economy. it is not that that whole trunk is in trouble right now. kathleen: shedding a lot of light on what is a complex and interesting situation in china. bert hofman, east asian director at the national university of singapore. let's look at how we are trading on the first day of the trading week. a couple days after u.s. stocks rebounded from an early selloff on a big jump in inflation. off the day's best levels across the board. the nikkei had been up more than

a percent as had been the kospi. still, you see green on the screen including in australian stocks. australians -- the aussie dollar a little bit of a move higher against the yen. pulling back a bit on the sense that risk is not may be so off as people thought it was. new zealand's docs a bit lower today. -- new lynn -- new zealand stocks a bit lower. paul: a fresh round of tax hikes. speaking to bloomberg exclusively about that and her sanguine view of inflation. >> seems low if you compare it with united states. contributes very significantly

because we are lucky with good weather the past three years. we also see -- has not been adjusted. this is creating and contributing. we don't see yet to supply -- see yet supply disruption. there is more or less a demand increase. we are not in the position like in the united states as well as in europe. especially on commodity price. especially on energy price. >> it does not seem as though you're going to be on track to meet your deficit target of deficit below 3% in 2023.

what are you going to do to address that? >> evergrande this year, we are expecting the business to be lower than last year. around five point one to 5.30 5.4%. we are on a lower end possibility. because of the strong revenue growth, we are showing around 16% on the back of revenue growth for this year. next year, there are a couple things we are thinking will be able to reduce the deficit on the budget. especially for 4.8. we are expecting it will be much lower than that. we're going to expect additional revenue from the tax reform. we are also expecting --

which will reduce the need for financing. combine all those three. i think we will have a much lower deficit. for the 2023 for us to get the 3% maximum debt deficit, we are still having a very good chance. >> then we have other perhaps headwinds as well. such as the omnibus law appear the because a duchenne court ruled it had procedure of false. -- the constitutional court ruled it had procedural falls. that could affect your target. >> the parliament getting the decision from the constitutional coy. -- constitutional court.

we are going to fulfill all the requirements for this law to be back again. a good process and is will not affect the sbi. >> when you going to liberalize energy prices? >> there is an increasing opportunity around 1.6 million. also increasing unemployment. we definitely missed on this area. all the same time designing the policy and also preparation in order for us to be able to steadily increase the liberalization on the pricing of the energy.

we have to be mindful of -- signaling is very clear on that side. paul: the indonesian fine ministry -- inanition finance ministers speaking with bloomberg. stay tuned for another interview coming up later. the bank of taiwan governor about divergence and how his central bank is never getting the pandemic. up next, reports of alibaba employee who accused her manager of sexual assault has been fired. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: this is daybreak: asia. growing divergence among the world's top central bankers. 20 rate decisions are due including from the fed, ecb, boj and 15 other countries peered some officials are aiming to tackle inflation while others want to stoke demand. the omicron covid variant is the latest wildcard. the impact on growth and price pressures will be key for central bankers until next year. economists predict china will start adding fiscal stimulus in early 2022 after authorities laid out key goals either economic policy meeting.

parties include contracting growth pressures and stabilizing the economy. all caps leg which in real estate suggests property curves will remain. official gdp growth target will be revealed in march. new data from south africa includes two shots of the pfizer fixing had 22 point 5% efficacy against septa medic omicron infection but can thwart severe disease. scientists found of the variant resulted in 41 full reduction in levels of neutralizing antibodies. they said a booster shot could increase immunity, backing up studies carried out by pfizer. the first formula one championship and a controversial finale. the champion had been set for a record-breaking ace title. -- hamilton had been set for a record-breaking ace title. the champion had the advantage of fresher tires.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. paul: just want to get you across and alert on the bloomberg. i couple stocks to resume trading in hong kong. the builder fantasia will be trading again. shares in that company have been halted since november. 29 after fantasia defaulted. fantasia will be trading again today as will sun city, the casino operator. suspended junket operations. the founder got arrested during a crackdown on the casino hub. sun city is going to return to trade today. a couple stocks to keep an eye on when hong kong begins trading in 45 minutes. one alibaba employee who accused

her manager of sexual assault last month was fired. our asia tech executive editor joins us. give us the background. >> the story starts in july when this young female employee who is only known by her surname went on a business trip with her manager. she says she was forced, pressured into a night of heavy drinking with the manager. some of her colleagues from alibaba and also clients. she woke up the next morning and said in her tote -- her hotel room, there was evidence of a sexual assault. she says a rape in addition to that and she took her allegations to people inside alibaba. there were several days when nobody responded her -- responded to her. eventually she went into the

company cafeteria with a megaphone and pamphlet. this is a critical moment for alibaba. the ceo finds out about it. the ceo puts out this internal memo where he calls the incident a humiliation. her manager ends up getting fired and two people resign under pressure. he says it is a very important the company varied and they needed to take action. if you fast-forward now, what we are seeing is the resolution of this. alibaba ended up firing her. they are not saying why she is leaving the company. she did give an interview. her attorney talked about the details. they're saying because she went public, some of them were inaccurate and they damaged the reputation of alibaba. they were terminating her employment. kathleen: seems like the reaction of alibaba -- at least they got rid of some people involved in this but it was not very supportive of her.

>> that is right. there was a police investigation . when the ceo made his -- issued this memo where he talked about the humiliation, he said internally they had not handled it very well. they had not been committed getting about it. the lower level employees had not surfaced the complaints quickly enough so he had take action and called it a terrible incident for the company overall. he said this is subject to the police investigation. the police said they did not find any evidence of rape and the manager denied anything like that had happened. he was investigated for forcible indecency but the penalties were modest. only about 14 days and he was quickly released from custody. fast-forward a couple months and you have the company saying they are getting rid of her because she was so public about these allegations and they were not as serious as she alleged they were. kathleen: thank you so much. asia tech executive editor for

an interesting recap of a very important story. you can watch us live and see our past interviews on our interactive tv function, tv . you can dive in to any of the securities or bloomberg functions we talk about all the time. come part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during the show. this is bloomberg. ♪

kathleen: a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. sbi holding secured enough shares in its offer to and control of shins there. the brokerage now holds a 48% stake in should say, which will become a consolidated consider ari. they jumped earlier plans of an unsolicited takeover bid in september. a significant property portfolio was valued at $30 billion at the end of june. crown told the investor briefing it is making progress in remediation plans. it is scrapping dividends for the first half of 2022. in october, crown was given two years to address a litany of misgiving.

paul: sun city has released junket operations following the arrest of the founder. joining us is our telecoms and media reporter. what happened to bring us to this point? >> on friday, sun city's macau junket operator issued a statement to all its employees saying the company will cease operation starting from friday because of the suspension of partnership with local casinos as well as the suspension of company systems including computer servers due to the police investigation. there was not any further announcement about arrangement with staff or any follow-up arrangements. the macau government has set up a counter to support the affected employees affected. kathleen: what does this mean to

the gaming industry overall? >> it is really the end of an era for sun city as a group as well as macau's gaming industry. sun city's junket operator in macau was macau's largest junket operator and these operators bring in vips, hireling gamblers to fill macau's vip rooms and extend credits to them to some of these practices are in the gray area and ira from beijing who are concerned about capital outflow and money laundering. that is why beijing has been cracking down on junket operators over the past decade. with the arrest, it is an unprecedented crackdown on the junket operator and analysts are saying this may be the end of the operators and macau's vip revenue, which accounted for one

third of overall gaming revenue may become nonexistent in the future. paul: sun city sold off pretty hard last week. it is going to resume trading today. what can we expect? >> since the arrest on november 30, the company has plunged 46% while the company does not operate a junket operation in macau, it operate overseas casinos and hotel and travel agencies and businesses like that. it itself is facing uncertainties while china is cracking down on overseas gambling. we have not really seen any positive news that could reverse the downward trend of the company stock price. kathleen: thank you so much. coming up, we will get more insight on markets from the bearings investment manager. that is it for daybreak asia.

coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of trade in hong kong, shanghai and shenzhen. a lot of green on the screen as we look at japan on the -- and korea. standby for bloomberg markets china open. this is bloomberg. ♪

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david: happy monday morning. welcome to bloomberg markets. we are counting down to the open on the chinese mainland and here in hong kong. economists see china adding fresh fiscal stimulus in early 2022, as beijing lays out its key goals for the coming year. 20 central banks set to meet this week,