>> we are seeing more and more of these fed members becoming a bit more worried about inflation. >> the game is to stop a wage spiral from starting. >> there's a risk that all markets go down. there's really no place to run and hide. >> what people forget is negative real yields are a very positive thing for risk assets. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a massive week ahead. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance

," live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro, together this one with caroline hyde. your equity market at all-time highs. it is wednesday. lisa: the expectation is for acceleration in the number of bonds they purchase each month. people really think perhaps they are going to go further and talk about the rolloff of the balance sheet. that could be the main upset to markets. other than that, everything else pretty much big and. jonathan: the last meeting -- pretty much baked in. jonathan: the last meeting, they say we need to re-accelerate the whole thing. that has happened very quickly. lisa: we were talking about whether this had to do with reconfirmation, or the idea that he was re-nominated to the seat. the data has changed, and i think that is the issue. you have seen the rhetoric change among the members of the federal reserve, and we will continue to see that. how far will they go? will they go too far?

jonathan: the pandemic has changed as well. that is maybe what surprised people at the same time we had this uncertainty around omicron. the global times reporting that china has reported his main -- it's first mainland omicron case. caroline: an hour ago, the uk thang the first person has died here from omicron. that narrative is going to affect the federal reserve questioning, i am sure, already affecting the bank of england. they now wait more patiently, worried about the economic ramifications. this is worldwide. the impact is still to be born out in the economy. jonathan: typically if you saw a headline like that, it is obvious the variant would be in the u.s., and the u.k. in china, the tolerance for covid cases is solo that it

matters so much more to policymakers over there. lisa: zero covid policies lead to potential shutdowns. how much does this disrupt supply chains further, and how much pressure are they going to feel to try to remove some of this zero covid policy? how much is this being done ahead of the olympics versus something more sustainable? jonathan: this came from citi over the weekend. continued supply chain risks in the coming months and beyond. just the idea that this is going to stick with us for months and may more quarters as well. lisa: i was struck by a story last week about supply chain disruptions off the port of l.a., and how there's been anecdotal data that it is getting better. but if you look further outside of the lens, you see there are all these ships outside of view waiting further out so that they can't be surveilled in the same kind of way, and the supply chain issues are not getting materially better. jonathan: our use adjusting they

are massaging some of the numbers? lisa: i am just saying these things are out there. would you say it is massaging the numbers? jonathan: i haven't seen the story. lisa: a lot of people think that the idea that there is a certain easing in the supply chain disruptions is a facade that can easily be disrupted by a number of these. jonathan: the biggest week of gains of the year so far, going back to february, on the s&p. a record high on the s&p 500. yields in a couple basis points on tends right now. crude negative about 0.7%, just $71 19 since. joining us is whaley -- is wei li, global chief economist at

black rock. what is your view on that? wei: what we have seen so far this year is that there is this greater private towards social objectives then common prosperity, and there was regulatory clampdown earlier in the year come about what we have also seen is this deteriorating from quarter to quarter from about 70% in q1 to q4 looking even worse in terms of the growth levels. as a result of the deteriorating growth trajectory, we have been of the view that support will have to head into a significant year that is 2020 two, characterized by the winter olympics, characterized by the party congress. sure enough, we have seen support did come through in the form of greater fiscal spending expectations. we continue to think that will

be the case as we head into next year, which is why we are moderately constructive on china assets on the equity side, as well as on the fixed income side. lisa: a lot of people have said there needs to be more accommodation in china because of some of these issues, and get over the weekend, the politburo of china came out with rhetoric that was new around the housing market, talking about bringing down pricing because this is a place that people live, not just invest in. how much is there a talking out of both sides of the mouth, and frankly, a harder line in maintaining the deleveraging stance from the politburo over the past couple of weeks? wei: it is a fine balance. it is always this longer-term journey of thinking about deleveraging and balancing that with the near-term support. so indeed, we have seen rhetoric pointing to wanting to del ever and thinking about the

resolution of how it is going to look like. but in order to contain the spillover effect from deleveraging, the growth side needs to be shorter which is why we see easy policy coming through to make sure the way it is happening, the housing market is appropriately contained in does not lead to a broader downturn and a broader risk, which is not what we expect heading into next year. caroline: good morning. it is great to get your perspective. from china to its world impact, the equity markets reacted off that earlier, what about supply chain issues? we get that first case of omicron coming into china. are you worried about the inflationary pressure we might see once again if the new variant hits china, hits supply

chains, and hits us in the u.s.? wei: you are right that the zero-tolerance policy in china does mean that omicron cases holding up in china will have even more significant impacts on the supply side, on the economic activity side which is why on the policy side, they would have to shut down in comparison with developed market counterparts. interns -- in terms of the spillover more broadly, thinking about a policy move, we do see on the inflation side not to elevated in the case of china. ppi is high, but cpi is still reasonably contained, and that does give them room to ease a bit more. if you think about this last year, the developed world has come through with policy

coordination, on the monetary side as well as the fiscal side. china has been rather reserved in their policy response, leaving them to act. so that is why our case in china is moderately constructive against the broader allocation. thinking about 2022, we talked about supply-side constraints. we do expect that kind of getting alleviated somewhat, and the combination of still robust growth dynamics should continue to support equities, and when he developed market equities over emerging-market equities. jonathan: is there an international bias to that equity allocation away from the united states, or is it toward the u.s.? wei: it is interesting you should mention it. our dm equity call has gone

through a bit of a journey in 2021. the first half of 2021, we preferred u.s. equities because real estate was way ahead in the u.s., and peak acceleration shifted from the u.s. to europe. sure enough, the approach to play the uneven pace of restart also replicate a difference in material earnings growth in europe and the u.s., and now looking ahead to 2021, the uneven pace of restarts is washing through a little bit. if you look at the earnings expectations difference across the u.s., europe, ranging from 12% to 15%. so instead, we see actually what

i just talked about, this combination of the real rate and dynamic growth in supporting equities across the board. we want to think about the cyclical sectors, as well as central growers like technology and health care. we l -- wei li, thank you. the s&p 500 up 25.4% year to date. lisa: the most outdated call heading into next year i think is overweight europe. we have heard this from some people, that europe is going to be on hold from a policy standpoint. how this plays out will be pro europe. jonathan: we will get the policy view on the fiscal side from isaac boltanky. we have a record high to start

the week on the s&p 500, going into a fed decision just two days away. from new york city, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. boris johnson is warning that the u.k. faces a tidal wave of omicron infections. in an address to the nation last night, the prime minister set a deadline for the end of the year for the country's booster vaccination program. a number of new omicron cases in the u.k. almost doubled sunday from a day earlier. in europe, natural gas futures rose to the highest levels since october. there is increasing concern that russia's nord stream 2 pipeline won't operate this winter. it may take up to eight months. in kentucky, death tolls from the tornadoes friday may be less

than originally feared. the storms killed at least 40 people and for other states in the south and midwest. in a paris court today, it was a victory for ubs. the swiss bank was ordered to pay a heavily reduced to billion-dollar penalty for helping clients stash funds in swiss accounts. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the characterization of inflation is transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the

federal reserve, and it results in a high probability of a policy mistake. jonathan: mohamed el-erian of queens college cambridge. he's said that line a few times. i think we should clarify that, the worst inflation call in the history of the federal reserve, not necessarily the worst call. some people might look back to subprime is contained. lisa: that might be considered the worst call ever. honestly, mohamed el-erian has been ahead of the curve, and he's been talking for weeks about how concerned he is about the fed not moving quickly enough. what is interesting is people are catching up to him. jonathan: it is consensus now. lisa: this has become consensus, and he was ahead of the curve. being the same drum he has been beating -- he's beating the same drum he has been beating all along. jonathan: the call they made months and months ago was actually a two-part call. the first was that we get a lot of inflation that was not be transitory. the second part is that it would

overwhelm the policy effort in washington, d.c. that policy effort right now is the build back better plan. when you listen to larry summers and mohamed, they support a lot of the stuff in that bill, but the numbers and d.c. are getting spun another way. lisa: there's a difference between sending checks to american households and building bridges, building roads. they are trying to distant was between that as we see the inflationary reads come in at the hottest pace indicates. -- pace in decades. jonathan: want to talk about this fiscal ever and bring in isaac boltansky, policy de-risk are -- policy director at b tig. what is shaping the view right now? isaac: there's an overarching reality in d.c., which is things up here impossible right up until the point that they are inevitable.

i think that is where we are right now with this bill back better package. i think it is going to be an credible busy week. we are waiting for an outcome from a procedural effort in the senate. there's a meeting between the two most important joes in d.c., joe biden and joe manchin. ultimately, they will narrow the bid and ask between senator manchin, senator schumer, and the rest of the democrats. we will get to a lower number from $1.3 trillion to $1.5 trillion, rather than the $1.75 trillion. lisa: is it really a headline number still, or are we now talking about the salt cap deductions, capital gains taxes, things that are very specific? isaac: given the inflation

prints we have seen, given what we are expected to see on wednesday, i think senator manchin is going to ask for the headline number to come down. right now, we are bidding over if you'd specific issues. there are also some ongoing fights regarding between energy tax credits, the electric vehicle tax credit, and some of the prescription drug changes as well. when you are arguing about specific issues like we are right now, you are very close to the goal line. i personally think they are not going to make their christmas deadline, that this is going to bleed into january, but i am still very optimistic to get a variable package done in early january. lisa: this morning, jared bernstein, academic advisor to president biden, had a tweet storm about inflation and the

build back better plan, trying to push back against people who say it is inflationary. he talked about the stimulative aspects of this. how much is that line of thought gaining traction in washington, obsessed with the inflation reads that will affect election chances in 2022? isaac: for most of the politicians in ec, data is a rorschach test. you can pick and choose your own data points. i think the white house is going to say, and this is accurate, that the bill as structured pays for itself and the investments are over it in year -- over a 10 year window. that is what the white house is going to push. i think that is going to gain traction because it is factual. republicans are going to push back and say if we actually extend all of these programs beyond their scheduled ends, it

would extend beyond $3 trillion. ultimately, democrats will get something done because this isn't as inflationary, as structured as the recovery plan that passed earlier this year. caroline: good morning to you. i am interested in how much you feel the administration will try to get a grip in and of itself on inflation, whether they are going to try to control the narrative. you read about when jay powell was going to be renominated, and that it is to them that the at ministries and looks to take away inflation. isaac: i think the white house is going to continue to drive headlines. i think there will be focus on supply chains and we will continue to see some of these

investigations and supply chains continue as well. there really isn't that much that i think the white house will alter in its actual policy. they renominated jay powell for a reason. i think in the next few days they are going to nominate three new governors to the federal reserve board. i think those are going to skew towards the progressive and more dovish side of the ideological spectrum. i think ultimately, there a hope within the white house that the supply chain issues being resolved over the medium-term are going to help with the pricing pressure. jonathan: always good to hear from you. isaac boltansky on the road ahead, on the build back better effort. the spin down in d.c. in full swing now. give me the insight into that and the effort to convince people that this bill is not inflationary. lisa: they are talking about the

idea that basically, some of the fiscal spending is going to rolloff and not be included in the coming years, not that is going to have an effect on the overall growth picture. they also talk about how some of this will be stimulus in the economy, and that is not being featured. yet, what this really comes down to is distinguishing between this and the emergency effort earlier in the year to try to send checks to all of the americans. they are saying it is different, and a lot of people agree, but it is a hard needle to thread given the fact that we are seeing inflationary prints at the highest level since the early 1980's. jonathan:jonathan: distracted by a call from oppenheimer, now most bullish on the street, 5330. we do not expect the fed to choke on liquidity come but pump the brakes as lightly as it can. lisa: this is the bearish case for a lot of people's portfolios. a steepen yield curve. this is the whole thing.

there is no alternative doesn't change if you have a federal reserve that has the same kind of ease house it has had the past few years -- kind of ethos it has had the past few years. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathon: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, , i'm jonathan ferro. all-time highs into monday on the s&p, the biggest gain back to february. the fed decision just a few days away. i keep calling it crystal ball season, because that is what it is. we have a new ball on the street at oppenheimer asset management. going to 53.30 on the s&p ear and next year. something that is crazy, too

bullish and we played that game 12 months ago. the high forecast coming here and call was about 4400 on the s&p at the time. we are well north of that. lisa: the biggest downside risk has been not being bullish enough. and tom keene us of that everyday as he looks at his cash fund. jonathon: very upset with tears running down his cheeks. futures up 2/10. the chief economist, stephen stanley, you have things to say. it is sounding the fed is -- it is astounding that the fed is still easing as inflation is at a 39 year high. how are they going to change this? stephen: they are working and starting to accelerate the pace of tapering. it looks like they will be done with tapering in march.

that doesn't clear the decks for rate hikes beginning as early as next spring. let's not get too distracted from the main story, which is that the fed is well behind the curve and even with the step they are likely to take this week, they will remain well behind the curve and they may have fallen further behind. jonathon: looking for 5330 on the s&p year and next year and they say don't expect the fed to slam the brakes. they expect the central bank as well. stephen: that is my baseline case. i think the case that they believe neutral is white low means they don't have as far to go -- is quite low, means they don't have as far to go. as to the fed tightening two to

three times, that will leave the funds rate at 1%, which is still extremely accommodative. you can see why that is a favorable atmosphere for risk assets. the liquidity in the system, we will stop adding to it soon and the fed is going to start to raise rates next year. we will have to see how that goes. it is a tenuous time period for risk assets, but the real risk is the fed at some point concludes that they have fallen so far behind the curve that they have to really rush to get rates up and that is a scenario we haven't seen, certainly since 1994. lisa: i have so much respect for you and mike collins, who has the exact opposite call that not only is the fed way behind the curve but needs to be more patient than the market is currently pricing in. if you are in a conversation

with him, what would you point out? stephen: the obvious thing would be inflation. i think we have gone rapidly, and less than six months, where inflation was high for a bunch of special reasons, reopening from the pandemic, and it was a handful of categories. now suddenly you look at the cpi over the last two months, and inflation pressure is broad-based. you look at other sources of information, firms have a great degree of power. there is a lot of talk about more price increases in 2022. the idea that this was a flash in the pan has gone by the wayside. i would also point to the labor markets. the labor market is quite tight and i wouldn't be surprised if we get full employment in the next three to six months. i just the the economic system is such that the economy has been overheating for most of the year and as long as the fed remains easy, that is not likely

to change. lisa: how much is housing a part of this as bill ackman reported two, given the month over month year-over-year comparisons we are seeing anecdotally for mental home companies? stephen: in the cpi, rent and owners equivalent rent, shelter costs, present 40% of the core. the much smaller percentage in the deflator but the still biggest part of the inflation what we have researched out of different fed banks is that those numbers tend to lag the home price appreciation numbers by one to two years. so we are just starting now within the last three months to see the acceleration in those categories of the cpi. there is much more to come. it could get worse. i think that is one of the key things and developments we have seen over the last few months that point us toward a more

broad-based and troublesome array. caroline: i am interested in the longer-term, potential dovishness of the federal reserve. in the here and now you are asking why there are not tackling inflation head-on. in the longer-term term, what does it mean? stephen: the fed thinks neutral is 2.5. i think it is higher. i think i will have to go beyond neutral in this cycle given how far they have let inflation run already. my thought is we will be in the three to three and a half range. if you look at what the markets are pricing, the markets don't think the fed gets to 2%. caroline: is that a steady pace, rate hike after rate hike or do they have to amplify and then tail off? how does that look to get to three and a half?

stephen: my baseline is steady, once a quarter, four times a year until we get to whatever level we need to get to. the risk scenario in my view is the fed ends up having to scramble and move more rapidly, whether that means moving at every meeting or at some point a move that is larger than 25 basis points. that is a scenario that most people working in the financial markets have never seen, because we haven't seen that since the 1990's. lisa: when does the balance sheet come into play allowing it to roll off? stephen: let's say they will end asset purchases in march, the way they handle that last time was to make sure they were safely away from the zero. i think that is less of a concern today, but they are probably not going to let the balance sheet to run off until they have gotten a few rate hikes under their belt. for me that is a 2023 story and once it happens it will be slow. they actually, last time, they

overshot, in their view a little bit, and allowed the balance sheet to strengthen too much. i think they will be careful about that and i think they can handle a large balance sheet without allowing that to have undue influence on the economy. they will not be in a huge hurry to get the balance sheet down but that is starting in 2023. caroline: you have focused on the united states. paint the global impact to this. what happens to the other central banks, some who have tried to be hawkish and backed off, where do you see the ripple effects? stephen: look, inflation seems to be a global phenomenon. higher in some places and lower in others, but i think it has accelerated in most places.

i think we will see a lot of normalization of policy in 2022. as you say, different central banks on different time schedules. it seems the bank of inland may be a little ahead of the fed even though expectations were rate hikes there have back off the omicron outbreak pushing things of this week for sure. the ecb and boj, much further behind. their economies are not in a position for them to be tightening just yet. the emerging markets, they definitely do in general need to react to the fed. it is a scenario that as the fed starts to raise rates next year, i suspect it will see banks around the world who follow suit to try to keep up with the fed. jonathon: do you take the rest of the year off after wednesday? stephen: i never get a day off. i am going to take a little time off around christmas, but we will get the year end pieces out

and keep everybody up-to-date. jonathon: i am just lobbying management, looking for support. stephen stanley of amherst. you have to have the people's backs. this came from the financial news in the u.k., goldman rolling back its return according to the financial news citing a person familiar with it. that is the direction of travel. lisa: this comes after a directive from boris johnson, one of the many discussions he has been having that people should work from home if they have to. are we starting this all over again? you wonder what the ripple effects will be in the business in the heart of the city who are trying to reopen. jonathon: just how quiet and sleepy is it in the city of london at the moment? caroline: you walk out and our office is quieter.

people are worried. the trains will certainly be quiet. i spoke to a cabbie who already is saying it is a lot quieter than he anticipated. he is disappointed. restaurants are feeling it. people are slowly but surely canceling their plans. jonathon: it has been a tough time for the cabbies in london and beyond and it is getting hard again aired almost two years of this. lisa: i am ready for this year to be over. i am just saying there could be other things that happen. jonathon: you will have to clarify, it is the final week of the year with a big scheduled event on it. lisa: but that said, it's been exhausting. jonathon: counting down to a fed decision. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

leigh-ann: i'm leigh-ann gerrans with bloomberg's "first word news." the u.k. health minister it is once again in a race between the vaccine and the virus. they want to give all a vaccination by the end of december. he also said there is no guarantee the government will be able to keep schools open. in kentucky, searching for victims of a tornado that left a 200 mile path of destruction. governor andy beshear has lowered the death toll. 50 people have died. in illinois, six people were killed when a tornado hit in amazon warehouse. chuck schumer insists they will pass the $2 trillion tax spending package before christmas, but time is running out and democratic moderates

still not on board with the proposal. it would hurt momentum for the democrats as they prepare for the 2022 elections. apple engine closer to the $3 trillion stock market value for the first time. apple is up more than 200% since the coronavirus first hit the world last year. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have to make sure that not

only people feel safe but they are safe. the city is a thriving. we have come back strong from covid. today in new york city, it is a much safer city. lisa: that was mayor bill de blasio as he tries to save a city battered by the pandemic. we have seen the city rebound if you look at the real estate markets. jonathon miller, president and chief executive officer , we are hah the record surge in rent in manhattan. start talking about how in the some ways the diversions between high-end apartments and low and apartments is the widest you have ever seen. jonathon: when we look at the

rental market, we are looking at a polarized market. if you look at the upper half of the market, that is the narrative with bidding wars, apartments, people waiting 75 deep to rent an apartment. we are looking at rents that are higher than pre-pandemic levels a few percent. we are also looking at year-over-year record growth of 23%. if we look at the other half of the market, to the lower half, lower wage earners, rents are about 11% behind pre-pandemic levels, even though they have been rising for the last couple of months, up 10% year-over-year . there is a tremendous polarization. i have been covering the market for 30 years and haven't experienced this type of

differential in performance. it largely has to do with post lockdown economic damage toward lower wage avenues versus mid and upper tier salary types didn't see nearly that type of damage. lisa: this is something i am sure is seeing around the world. united kingdom going back to work at home. goldman sachs saying just stay there, it is going to be rocky over the next few weeks. what are you thinking that you are seeing a return to the city, despite the fact that you are not seeing the robust return to offices that people were expecting? jonathon: if we were having this conversation last spring, we were saying, september october, that is when the light switch gets turned back on and everyone is going to go back to the office. the delta variant kicked the can down the road and what we end up seeing is a very slight return

of workers to the office. two thirds are empty. that has implications, and not breathing oxygen into street-level retail, which is one of the things you notice the sidewalks are full anecdotally retail is very empty and that is going to be playing out over the next couple of years. caroline: and certainly exclaimed in the weeks and months as omicron takes its hold. you serve on the new york city economic advisory panel, talk about the push forward. it is the lower rental market hasn't seeing the uplift because of the long-term damage to low income and now we start to see wage increases to some extent could do you think that will come back or is there an issue

that workers do not want to return to new york city and will go elsewhere? jonathan: i think it is both think even with higher wages i don't think we will return to business as usual. i think there has been a fundamental, structural change, basically due to the ability to remote work. i think right now market, there is not a clear direction on that . i think this is going to be a multiyear discovery process as opposed to some sort of like a light switch being on and off and everything is normal. i think it is a long process of discovery. it is encouraging to see record sales volume in real estate and a quick rebound in rental prices, which indicates or suggests that at least the consumer is thinking that things

will normalize over the next few years. caroline: and what are they wanting? at one point it was we could not get outside space. is that what people are wanting or are people putting that initial emotional damage of covid to one side and wanting apartments living in the city and have places on the weekend? jonathan: i think the latter. there was the initial panic and people wanted more space, but if you break out the skew towards larger space, it really is a function of what i was talking about before, the higher end so more strength and that inherently is a larger property sizes. we are looking at the average size of property skimming larger

in terms of what is selling. i think a bigger part of that is more affluent people who are more active in the market. lisa: we have been talking about the salt tax deduction and the state and local tax induction which matters for new york city real estate. how much has this been a factor in people's purchasing versus renting part discussions in general for potential homeowners? jonathan: the salt tax because it came into effect in 2018, the market had to use to price it. we are looking at a housing market that dropped in value 14% to 15%. there is a modification -- if there is a modification of that salt tax, you will see a jump in prices as a result because it has already been priced in

housing prices already. lisa: jonathan miller, thank you so much for being with us on this pivotal moment, discovery process in markets at all-time highs in the united states. in the united kingdom, caroline hyde, i am glad you are here. looking at gas isis in the u.k., do people still talk about this in the streets and family dinners? is this a point of concern? caroline: if we are able to gather around the christmas table, is that gas prices that will dominate the conversation? it comes from increased tensions with russia and ukraine, people are worried about the safety and it very much dominate. how much will that dominate conversation come thursday when we anticipate to be left hawkish. lisa: it is a great concern of inflation running hot with a

slowdown in the economy. coming up, professor emeritus at the wilson center at 12:00 new york eastern time, getting a sense of the road ahead in washington, d.c. from new york and london, this is serve." -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

jonathon: from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. equity market with a lift,

all-time highs. the countdown to the open starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg, the open, with jonathan ferro. jonathon: from new york, we begin with a big issue, it is fed decision week. >> fed chair powell fed meeting. >> the fed doesn't need to tighten here. >> clearly they are starting to act. >> may be getting hawkish when inflation is ready to crash. >> they have made it clear they are going to accelerate the pace of taper. >> the taper is coming. >> they are giving themselves the option to hike faster in 2022 should the data support that move.

>>