tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg December 17, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EST
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very accommodating. >> trying to reestablish credibility as inflation fighters. >> the withdrawal is not going to be enough. >> i think there is going to be a long time the discussion of inflation is in the air. tom: good morning. let the friday begin and it does. jonathan ferro lost somewhere over the atlantic. caroline joins us. this is always an important day to set up for the holidays and set up into 2022 and then, the calm of the markets, there is a real turmoil about where we are heading. lisa: an hour the markets really going to stay so calm? how much of this is just people solidifying profits. how much is this people
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realizing we have a shifted tone that the central banks? tom: in the pandemic fund. you are living in london. we have it in america, but i find just extraordinary that france has decided caroline hyde cannot have a beverage at harry's bar here in a couple of days. caroline: a christmas tradition for me. i am heartbroken. our producer managing to get across the border. amid this eu summit that has been going on, all of these countries acting alone. tom: this is important. for america, this is extraordinary that italy alone in greece alone. what is the strength of brussels in this pandemic? do they have the strength of washington? caroline: from a federal perspective, that has always been the weakness when it comes to the eu.
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covid showed that front and center, the worries and inability, that just erased some of that focus that had been the coming together and now, once again, we see country by country decide their own path and that does not seem to show much working together. tom: i have a folder pandemic fears that we all had really right into what does it mean for 2020 economic growth. lisa: 2022. what i thought was notable was that yesterday, president biden came out and so we face a winter of severe illness and death. at the same time central bankers around the world are shrugging off the implications of the severe winter of illness.
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how do markets respond to this? did they take the optimistic approach or pessimistic approach. tom: we are going to do a data check. pretty quiet in the markets, but let's go through it. the two year yield importantly from a .64 and .63. the 10 year yield, 1.42%. one of the quiet moments of the week is the really old, 10 year inflation-adjusted comeback from a one level to a -1.04. lisa: it gets my attention because right no what you are seeing is a repudiation of this idea that we have the threat of a more sustainable inflationary push. basically, the acceptance of a transitory type of inflation.
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how us can you explain the flight -- flattening yield curve, such low rates. we will hear from janet yellen who is hosting a meeting to focus on stability issues. i'm creative she talks about the risk of a market that is addicted to fed support. how does the fed tighten financial commissions with the degree of debt that has been incurred at the very low rates of potential disruptive force? this is a huge conundrum a lot of people have been trying to wrap their heads around. the amount of oil that the enema states produces has come back, but not that much and now, we have the stille my where we have oil prices kind of fluctuating. how much do they keep coming back? how much does the u.s. or mean the marginal producer at a time when opec-plus has shown they
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are going to increase production? tom: the oil gained that we have cover here with all the different opinions, deutsche bank with a low price view and others well over $100, the research piece, whether you agree or disagree is jp morgan and they are saying simply shale won't come on this time. lisa: because frankly, investment and some of these facilities and inflation and some of the supplies are cost prohibitive to bring things on super quickly. at 1:00, we will hear from a number of fed speakers. how much do they reiterate what we heard from jay powell the it is distorted by overseas investors if you look at the long end of the curve and it is not something tom: -- an important voice today. right now, we begin our discussion on this friday as you get ready for the weekend and jump into next year. head of global fixed income at
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morgan stanley, brian joins us. folding and fixed income to the rest of the market, you know the cliche, don't tell anyone in equities. the fixed income guys are smarter. we all know that. what should the equity market, what is your market telling stocks? brian: i won't come on the equity guys, but the bond market guys usually don't and with the bond market is saying is just what lisa said that the inflation problem is what is transitory. that there is no long-term impact, no long-term fear and that the fed won't really get off the ground. i think you are seeing a little bit of that in terms of relative moves in the last two days. now, we are taking away some accommodation and that is what all is happening. there's not a lot of mishaps. i would argue that the fed being united in this decision wanted to raise rates slowly is
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actually long-term ok for risk assets and long-term rates being the same. lisa: explain that. why does it matter that they were unanimous? brian: i think we have seen some discomfort with the hawks with the policy. we are buying billions of dollars of treasuries and mortgages alone. i think by taking that away and admitting that we don't have to raise rates more than three times in 2022 and three times in 2023, at no point to even the hawks have the funds getting above neutral. the markets disagree. it tells you they are not really trying to aggressively tighten, they just cannot be in a position where they're pumping liquidity at a time where inflation is as uncertain as it is in trending higher. caroline: we speak with the negative real yield and try to search for more yield in corporate wealth and high yield? brian: our clients heavily
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spoken this year, looking for income inflations like bank loans, floating rates where there is not as much duration in the world. you see how much cash is in the facility to move out and capture 1% corporate rate and finance. it is not super exciting and our equity friends will be happy because it is money flowing. look for yield and don't expect rates to go wildly higher. lisa: tom keene raise this conversation saying bond traders are smarter, the bond guys are the smartest guys in the room. are they this time or is the bond market not as much of a signal because of the distortion that frankly fed chair jay powell himself pointed to in disregarding the long end? brian: there are definitely technical factors in a has been a risk for a while, but the truth is, with the exception of
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the last couple of months where inflation has really spiked, which the market did not predict in the bond market anyway, it has been hard to keep long-term growth rate high. we will see if inflation stays sticky. as the fed pares back, we will find out. tom: i was told core inflation would turn in february and march of next year. what does your 10 year yield do if that is correct? brian: it probably inches higher , but looking at a chance to get over 2% for the next couple of months. it seems like it is a lot higher but we were 170 a couple of weeks ago. tom: thank you so much. i want to make clear that mr. weinstein was chosen for bloomberg surveillance this morning only because john said get him on.
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we listen to the fixed income guys and they are out there gaining the 10 year yield. do they know what they are gaining or is it just a guess? lisa: a lot of people are saying you can bet against the bond market but every time you have a get the bond market, you have been wrong. the bond market has been highly predictive. it is a discount rate so if it stays this way, how much does it continue to be supportive of risk assets at a time even with inflation running hot which is the reason why so many people come on and say real yields remain perpetually very negative. much more so than ever before and will only go more so because of this dynamic that the fed cannot get out of. tom: i'm unclear on this, will it get worse as lisa talks about or do we actually get an improvement? in england, with 5.1% inflation how painful is the real yield? caroline: it continues to be an
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absolute, for my personal best person on the street perspective, it hits you hard in your wallet. we have an awful lot of debtors here in the u.k. who want to be more worried about where your mortgage rates go. focused firmly on where inflation is at the moment and that is where they tackle. they have been far more hawkish and moved inside the market yesterday. tom: an extraordinary week. i cannot say enough about yesterday. stay with us this morning, a special focus on the stock are get. chris will join us in his search for value. it is a beautiful, festive new york. good morning. leeann: president joe biden is warning unvaccinated americans
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that they face what he calls a winter of severe illness and death. the president is urging people to get initial doses and booster vaccines as coronavirus cases search. he did say the spread of the omicron variant has been slowed for now. bloomberg has learned the u.s. is pushing the eu to finalize a package of sanctions against a russian bank and energy companies. they were being told -- the u.s. agreed sanctions would send a firm signal to russian president vladimir putin. here in the u.k., it was a stunning political defeat for the prime minister boris johnson. his conservative party has missed it by election. it is a seat the party has been held ever since it was created. goldman sachs says it can now not rule out oil at $100 a barrel in 2023 because -- are
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spreading and it is going to increase. for unvaccinated, we are looking at severe illness and death for unvaccinated. tom: not funny. we welcome all of you worldwide as we all adjusted to a new round of pandemic. johns hopkins university yesterday, christopher breyer, the great epidemiologist, truly an expert on thailand, made very clear what part of this is omicron and what part of this is the seasonal effect of the virus. lisa and carolyn with me. jonathan ferro off somewhere on sabbatical. emily joins us from bloomberg government. we should be talking about blowback better in the failure, but i think we have to go to the pandemic right now. how in lockstep is the biden administration with capitol hill and with the institutions we are trying to trust, cdc, and the
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rest of them. how tight is everybody coordinated? lisa: it is a little difficult to say that just because congress is so diverse. you have the messages from democrats saying everyone needs to get vaccinated and get their booster and continue to take precautions. republican voices saying mostly they are pro-vaccine but they don't think there should be any mandates. you saw that recently with the senate attempt on mostly senate republicans to overturn president biden's mandate on companies that they need to have their employees vaccinated or tested. you are hearing a bit of the mixed message at this point but the biden administration right from the start, they hitched their slate to be the administration to get everyone passed the pandemic and they are struggling to do that because these new variants and there is hesitancy to vaccinate. tom: there was a word invented
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yesterday called case-demic, a frenzy in cases but hospitals and death are not wind up with the agony we are feeling about cases. does washington make the nuance decision -- distinction between cases and hospitalizations and death? emily: i think to a certain extent that happens because that is when everyone starts to panic. one hospitals are full and they can't take people and people who need other medical help have to be turned away because every bed is taken. it has been early prediction on capitol hill about potentially having legislation to address the new omicron variant. at this point, any kind of hinted at this with the whole bill but better package, there really is not a lot of willpower to move major legislation at this point.
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tony fauci he, his proclamation that there is not the need for another vaccine that targets the omicron variant that what we have with the boosters is just fine. emily: i think he has become a very politicized figure on the left and the right. i think what you are hearing is a message that really goes back to what the biden administration has been saying which is really trying to encourage people to get vaccinated, get there boosters. we have heard this from boosters experts that we can do the testing and masking and social distancing, but this is not going to be over until a significant portion of the population is finally vaccinated. i think that is part of the message dr. fauci is delivering. yes, there are still concerns, we are still getting information about how current vaccines hold up to omicron, but trying to encourage people to make sure they are getting their vaccinations and booster even as we are learning more. lisa: in the meantime, a lot of
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people are still unvaccinated and we are not going to get them fully vaccinated before the wintertime before the peak of the season and that is what the expectation is. how much is there any political will left for restrictions or is that off the table? i think to a certain extent, that depends on the state and willpower of local leaders. here in d.c., late last month, the mayor relaxed some of the policies around masking. d.c. yesterday hit its highest number of cases since september. there is a certain extent of where you are, what your local leaders want. i live here in d.c. and when i go to other parts of the country, i am always pretty surprised at how relaxed a lot of things dealing with masking and social distancing are. i really think at this point it is largely in the hands of the local leaders, of heads of businesses. the biden administration is trying to get the message out there but there is only so much
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they are able to do in terms of continuing various mandates. caroline: the governors and the mayors, what to expect or could we expect as we are all about the start to travel for the holidays. here in europe, as tom has been focusing in on, italy and greece demanding pcr tests if you are traveling within the eu and germany and france saying no but putting limitations on u.k. travelers. how much could debbie restrictions on the united states or is that off the table? emily: we have not seen too many states putting in various stands. we have all been alerted to the fact that the holiday season, cases are expected to spike. winter is a time people usually tend to get sick in addition to being with family. you already saw dr. fauci put out the message that people could spend christmas with their families this year. you have seen the biden administration saying even
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though we have the virus with us, things are better than they were last year. granted, that is how they are shifting as we drive the omicron variant. the biden administration is really trying to have their cake and eat it too and so they are making progress. tom: we love you, emily. we see three banners lined up that involve emily wilkins. russia says the united states should have no military ties with x ussr states. russia proposes u.s. deny nato membership to ex soviet states. how important are these headlines? emily: there is something i think lawmakers are increasingly watching closely especially with the buildup on the ukraine border. this is something washington has very much pivoted their attention to. when it comes to the u.s. dealing with russia and dealing
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with them in a strong and aggressive way, there is a really fascinating number of tweet from a lawmakers saying they should be aggressive on russia and immediately had republicans backing him up. tom: we have to run because of time, but this headline out moments ago. nato must return european forces to position in 1997. emily wilkins, thank you so much and this is a movable story. i think of ian bremmer, the joy of talking to him and the risk of 2022. you wonder how much of a risk will be our relationship as we redefine eastern europe. lisa: and the fact russia seems like it is not backing away from a potential invasion in ukraine. how much does the western nations, how much they have in terms of leverage and considering the lack of willingness to cut off the gas supply. tom: and of course, utility
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tom: economics, finance, investment and very international relations. "bloomberg surveillance." welcoming around the world and across this nation. the headlines right now on a friday, holiday pandemic worries. russia speaks, another headline. russia proposals not designed to be rejected by west. that sounds like a dinner conversation at the abramowitz house. lisa: you got that right. tom: quickly, this is a big deal. russia sticking out their territory on eastern europe and what we have done with nato over the last 20 years. lisa: it is a big deal for the energy market and gas market in europe and the big deal in
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respect of vladimir putin getting more attention. how much this really re-jitters politics right now is unclear at the same time, this is something that needs to be dealt with. what you are seeing with gas prices is not negligible in europe at the same time you have the ecb staying transitory. tom: with a data check right now in london, caroline hyde. caroline: gas prices actually slumping at one point all because russia decided today would be the day they would open the flows of gas over to germany. i digress from what is happening on the rest of the border index. s&p futures down. the nasdaq, keep an eye on what is happening in terms of big tech. the big fall yesterday was the worst day since the end of september. concerned that notably federal reserve policy, we don't see
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those rate hikes going up to 2024. bitcoin, it is a risk asset today and down. we look at what is happening in terms of our bond market as well. seeing once again a bit of a flattening yield curve. what this is mean about what the market is trying to tell us of future growth? it is worried about that. the yield takes up slightly. yesterday's pulldown rising ever so slightly. we are seeing a search for a haven as we worry about central bank policy. i look at the move into the swiss bank. money moves into the yen and
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moves out of the dollar and out of those risk focused assets. tom: thank you so much. our interview of the day and may be our interview of wednesday, thursday and now, this friday, america's interesting and original monetary theory. claudia is on twitter with a firestorm each and every day. it bloomberg opinion column this. fearless about what is in the text books and what we are doing right now that is not in the textbooks. the questions the twitterverse wants to know, are we practicing monetary -- modern monetary theory? claudia: that is not the way i would describe it. as you put it, the textbooks have not been written. we really are trying to figure this out, living both a c change in monetary policy. we have a new federal reserve framework that is being tested as we speak and we see and fiscal policy really shift in
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terms of putting support into the economy. you put those two things together and this is not a constellation we have seen for and the ink is not dry on it. this is a very fluid moment. there is a lot to be proud of. we have a recovery that is just so much better and faster than last time. tom: help me with the word measured. arthur burns used to make big moves when he made a move. smoking a pipe and the pikes mode -- pipe smoke coming up and everybody interpreting what it meant. are we measured now in our movements or potential movements? claudia: i think the big change for the federal reserve right now is the communication policy has become so much stronger. even the interest rates are a lot lower than they were and neither of those two paths -- i don't think the word measured is
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what they are thinking of. it is no surprise. we have watched them do so much messaging and you don't want to do big moves unless you have to. we know from march of 2020 the fed is more than willing to just move when it needs to. but at a moment like this, they want to bring everybody along. jay powell spends a lot of time trying to explain to us what they are thinking and where they are headed. lisa: how much are you taking a signal from the fact that jay powell is reiterating some of the economist declining the push. it is something you have to address versus the bond market which is saying it is not a problem? claudia: this also goes very much to the communication. we need and we need to believe that we have a fed that is awake at the wheel. they absolutely are, but it is important that they address some of those individuals and say hey, we are watching this. we see it and we are deeply concerned. i worked at the fed for over a
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decade, they are always deeply concerned about inflation. that is what the central bank is there in part to do. i think it is just been so much more explicit in trying to help the outside world understand the risk and the risks have been shifting. it is appropriate how they are communicating and what they have told us has moved over time as the world is moving. lisa: how much has there been a shift in ideas at the federal reserve, how much is it something more political? there have been massive pivots done by the fed chair, the fact he thought it was appropriate to keep the bond purchases where they were and suddenly we are doubling it and talking about how everything looks very hot. the labor market, we want to get to full participation, we want to see the labor market participation rate go up. now, we don't know what that means. this is a vastly different jay powell than what we heard. we read something different? claudia: i think the question is interesting about the politics.
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i wrote my subset post on this because i found it interesting it has some credence in some circles. the fed is a politically independent in its policy decision. washington, d.c., politics are there. it has gotten pulled into some of these complicated issues especially in labor markets. like how inclusive and the diversity. i really do believe the decisions they are making are being driven by what is happening in the economy and unfortunately, the fed is setting up for this tough trade-off between inflation staying high, we need to get that back down and we want to get every worker back to work. they are going to face this trade-off and they frankly have not done a good job of explaining how that works in the new framework. they are pushed around by politics plays them as i'm sure we will see, but i don't think that is what is driving what jay
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is doing in the fed. caroline: talk to us quickly about where the importance of an inclusive labor market dominates over the next month or so. now, we seem to worry that kind of employment is at 7%. claudia: i think it is right to be focused on next year, but it is important we step back and look at what the inflation numbers are right now and the fun rate is still at zero. this is a fed that is incredibly focused on both sides of their mandate in a way we would not have seen even a few years ago. what does that mean in terms of being inclusive and the broad-based? i think this is a big discussion and it came up wednesday. of the people who left the labor force, who is coming back and how quickly can they come back? that seems to be a big debate
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going into next year. tom: i am depressed. when it came out 32 years ago, i read every word of "the debt in the deficit." i must have sold peter bernstein 30 copies of that bug where i just sent to people shut up and read this so we don't panic. an investor asked you about modern fiscal theory. from your monetary view, the classic book, what is our modern fiscal theory? claudia: i wish i had the answer for you. i think right now, we are going to talk so much about the fed, but when we look at years to come, what is happening in congress right now is where the debate should be.
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i worry that will make it to the models, it gets -- we move past the what are we trying to accomplish and what kind of investments are we trying to make in our infrastructure and people. at the end of the day, those discussions are looming so much larger and i worry that theory is going to be written after the fact. tom: sounds brilliant. thank you so much to the two. i know you are dying to jump in here. lisa: we are not there yet and are you really depressed? how are you dealing with that? tom: this book came out. i was so honored the giant of new school would write this. everybody read it colored -- cover to cover.
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lisa: it is why we have been able to borrow as much as we have. what it does do is perhaps the opposite which is the reason why perhaps the bill but better is off the table. tom: what do you want? i have to start my christmas shopping around the 23rd. i'm gearing up for and i am very depressed. you should get a list of my afterthoughts. it is three pages. lisa: learning from the best. tom: so much love. stay with us on the equity markets. leeann: chinese -- have been
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accused of using technology in a secret hack. strolling officials say there was a software update from huawei loaded with -- u.s. authorities have warned for years that they post a security risk. senate democratic leaders have pushed across the tax and spending and were unable to break -- and have pushed it off until january. joe manchin is the key holdout and is urging the delay. the cdc has recommended coronavirus vaccines made by pfizer and moderna over the johnson & johnson vaccine saying it has been linked to a rare but serious blood clot. women aged 30 to 49 are at highest risk of those clots. it is a surprising blow to
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purdue pharma. d.o.b. white settlement, a judge has reversed the bankruptcy. a number of states wanted to block the agreement. shares are tumbling after its first earnings report as a public company. the electric maker has said it expects to fall short of its annual production target. the startup will be a few hundred vehicles short. this is bloomberg.
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predicted. this is still with delta in europe and the u.s. only about 2% of cases in the u.s. are omicron. the infection curves for omicron, and i have seen the data for the u.k. and germany and for the u.s., look even steeper than we saw in south africa. tom: one of the nation's great epidemiologists here. the new urgency of this pandemic. a data check as we wait for anna and chris to join us later on the equity markets, sort of the meddling of what we have right now. i do want to point out the link between the u.s. to year yield and link that over to what i look at in europe as the litmus paper. euro swissie a little bit stronger.
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right now, we begin a three hour discussion with andrew. i want to go to the cold hard reality that the president of the united states knows. the u.s. has a vaccination rate published and a nation as beleaguered as italy has a vaccination rate of 85%. how far behind is the look that we seem to be far behind? >> we were one of the first country to roll out vaccines and mass and it seems like ever since we started to roll out the vaccines, we have fallen behind other countries able to not only more effectively do it but also convince their population about the benefits of vaccination in many different ways. i think as we move through these variants, we saw it without for an delta and now all of the signs at of the same thing which
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is these viruses are moving through the vaccination and vaccines are protecting us from severe disease. these viruses are spreading incredibly efficiently and they are going to find unvaccinated people and unvaccinated people is yet to be determined how verlyn this virus is. lisa: the uptick in cases we are seeing in new york city in particular, is that the omicron wave actually happening? >> really difficult to differentiate between what is happening with the delta serve which was going on across many parts of the u.s. just after thanksgiving and what omicron is doing. sequencing efforts lacked behind a little bit. we are not hearing about them a crime cases as quickly as we should. it is quite possible that the surges we are seeing are contributed to by omicron
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because the data coming out of europe is showing that this virus is at least as good as delta if not better than delta at transmitting populations that have some immunity. lisa: how important is the psychological impact of a lot of people that got vaccinated ended with a should do and are still getting sick. everybody knows something like that. how much it should that discourage people from listening to health officials by saying you will be protected if you just take these measures? >> it is important to get the message of primarily protection from severe disease is what we are seeing these vaccines doing quite well. that is helped throughout for an delta and now omicron. the real expectation for people is that covid-19 is looking more and more like a seasonal influenza. the vaccines are going to prevent some kind of level of infection.
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that is probably where six months and a year from now, we are really going to be settling in in terms of managing this disease. we will have treatments like antivirals that also will limit the severity and we will be dealing with this as the virus similar to influenza. we are not at the place yet but that is where we will be in a few months. caroline: there is an element in here and the now it's about the worry that eventually, hospitalizations will run much higher than they have previously because once again, we are exhausted from the mental strain of all of this. we are going to put the most vulnerable at risk. the u.s. very much standing by and they want to see families standing together for the festive period. >> there is a way to manage the risk.
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testing is an important part of this. the rapid testing and other forms of testing like saliva testing are great methods to keep monitoring for infections. making sure that you understand your gatherings and workplaces and maintain some level of social distancing. there are ways to manage the risks of transmission right now. what is important to note is more cases will equal more hospitalizations and so we really have to make an effort to limit cases because irrespective of whether omicron is more or less verlyn them delta, if it causes more cases, it will cause more severe cases than delta. caroline: talk to me quickly about why i can walk into a library, into a pharmacy anywhere in the u.k. and get a lateral flow test and have many ahead of the christmas period -- is it right that --
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>> it is most definitely harder to do that in the united states. i think there was not an emphasis early on about using these at-home tests and it was not a real understanding of how to use these at-home tests effectively. other countries have moved forward and are able to use these tests effectively. i think we are starting to learn that here in the u.s. but now, it becomes basically a supply and demand of problem. now, people are trying to get these tests here, but we simply don't have the supply to meet the demand that is here right now. i assume that will change with some of the pandemic plans that the biden administration is putting forward before the short-term, people are really desperate for these tests and not able to get them in many parts of the united states. tom: if i don't speak to you before the end of the year, thank you for your support and education of all of us. he is with johns hopkins university.
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i feel this now more and it was like a week ago there were eight and lenses outside mount sinai here on the east side of manhattan. i feel even more the absolutes around this of masks on the sidewalk. and then, i going to a packed restaurant and no one is wearing masks. and then you go back out on the sidewalk and put your masks on. i go, how did i get here? lisa: basically, the pandemic is moving faster than the communication to what we should do about it. such a motley assortment of different rules on where you should take your masks off and keep them on and people are sort of making it up as they go along. i feel like i am channeling jon ferro here. why is about when you get up from your see at a restaurant, you have to put your mask on. tom: dow futures at -49.
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♪ >> i don't fed is trying to tighten financial conditions. i think the fed is still very growth supportive. >> these are very accommodative financial conditions. >> they are trying to reestablish their credibility as inflation fighters. >> the withdrawal of stimulus isn't going to be enough. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. an eventful friday before the holiday season. russia making strident comments on eastern europe. you know the story on an ever-changing pandemic. jon ferro off today. caroline hyde on duty for us in london. it is getting restrictive to travel in the continent of europe. caroline:
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