tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg December 17, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EST
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>> there's always this tension between the market and policy makers as to where is the breaking point. >> omicron and covid more generally is going to take a bite out of growth. >> the market is whopping -- is welcoming the fed to move. >> this has been an earnings led market. >> we want to see balance across sectors. we want to remain a global investor. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: here comes the post central-bank hangover. good morning.
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this is "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. on popoff. perhaps -- jon off. perhaps he is in capri. caroline hyde oneness today. we are looking at a slew of tightening decisions. doesn't mean the policy tightening doesn't matter for stocks until it does? tom: exactly. if and when yields go up or get to b -- go up. to me, the market here is low interest rates. everyone has been looking for the when and how much of higher interest rates, and the main message on a friday is it did not happen wednesday. it did not happen thursday. lisa: the idea that we have these very low discount rates even with the federal reserve planning out hikes may 3 times next year shows to me one of two things. either that the bond market is completely distorted, or we have a message here that perhaps isn't that encouraging.
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it is tolerable for equities at this point. tom: the abramowicz crystal ball goes to gloom. a change here, a greater negative yield over the span of the week, over the span of those for three -- those three central-bank meetings. we've got the cap from anna han and -- of goldman sachs. lisa: caroline, you have been pointing to the omicron variant and how much it has changed the narrative in europe. it has not changed the narrative among economists. it not change the narrative for central bankers, who are largely shrugging this off. i do wonder how much they are saying that perhaps people are underplaying the risk. caroline: david riley making
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that exact point. the man was saying this is going to take a bite out of the economic growth longer-term. this is going to affect europe first and foremost. but it is down to the restrictions taken. you saw the pmi data out of germany earlier this week. the fact that it rollover into negative territory when you are looking into terms of contraction for german services. we look at retail sales, backward-looking. full throttle today in the united kingdom are good but what of december? what if the fact that every bar is empty, the restaurants are not full, and the retail industry is going to hurt? lisa: right now you are certainly seeing hurt in markets. nonetheless, i am really watching big tech. are people taking stock of this and saying, wait a second, perhaps we did not accurately price this in, was nasdaq futures down? tom: i'm going to go into the
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noise camp. to me, the tech market is something some people are really looking at. i love the phrase i heard the other day, the defensives, the tech defensives. let's do a defensive data check. right now, the vix moving from 18 out to 21 over the last number of days. i went to look at the swiss 20 year. it is a lesser negative yield. that is somewhat enthusiasm perhaps for what christine lagarde said. the u.s. 10 year is a pretty shocking one point 39%. that bears watching this morning. i'm going to stop the data check there because a sub 1.40% 10 year yield gets my attention. lisa: it is just amazing we have seen a potential hiking cycle and have the verdict that markets are saying the fed is wrong to drop transitory. chris c -- chris grisanti
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is the ceo at maa at capital -- at mai capital. chris: i think they are being somewhat wise because for example, the u.s. economy is really a supertanker still running full steam ahead. inflation that we are all obsessed about is actually a feature of a strongly moving economy, as long as we can be sure it doesn't run away with it. i think we are all relieved to have the fed meeting in the rearview mirror, but i am really afraid of omicron get it is going to get worse before it gets better. but i think it gets better relatively fast compared to the other waves we've had, so that may be good news for january as well. tom: i was sticking of david
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kostin at goldman sachs saying high quality and high growth. a three year perspective, what do you do with big tech? what do you do with the fancy 5, 6, 7 names? chris: i think the end of the year, they are offering you some opportunities. some of the names that have been real high quality, amazon comes to mind, it has taken a breather this year after such a great year responding to the covid pandemic. if i had to pick a faang that was really going to outperform, it would be amazon. they have so many levers to push . also visa and mastercard are actually down from the middle of the year. in some cases, almost 20% in a market that has risen. you have these high-quality names. i think there's less there than meets the eye. they are does down because of rotation, not because of market fundamentals.
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caroline: talk to us about her not we ever get the -- or whether we find the haven trade in big tech because we thought we might have apple getting to $3 trillion, still just shy of it. chris: i think the rotation is clearly away from tech yesterday . it was a perfect example. but the earnings haven't rotated way. when the market is looking for those companies with reliable earnings growth, they are going to go back to large-cap tech if the values are reasonable. for amazon, which is trading pretty close to the low of its 10 year ebita arrange, i think it is very attractive. everything looks great when earnings are going up for everybody. that is probably not going to be the case as we get to the second half of 2022. lisa: concentration risk was an issue when you saw such a big divergence and when you made a
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bet on such specific names based on a picky a revenue stream. it has not always played out correctly based on valuations and some of the trends. how much is concentration risk one to abate, and we will see more of a wholesale rally or selloff next year versus more of the same of what saw this year? chris: i do think the market will broaden for the sheer fact that earnings are going to be quite strong in the first half, so you will see energy and finance will still be strong. tech will still contribute. this all assumes that omicron is not a many month trend, but just a month or two. so we will see, but that is what our base case is right now. having said that, i would get concerned about concentration again later in the year. i think the year gets very complicated. tom: can you buy big oil? chris: i don't think so. our investment horizon is three to five years, so it is really
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tough to make the case for carbon-based energy three to five years from now, and a growth area where you want to put your clients for many years. tom: chris, thank you. hugely valuable always through this year. that is not a small issue, of big oil and to comfort. if you are like grisanti, where you got clients to report to, do they want to see big oil in their portfolio if they are considering the electric porsche? i can't remember the name of it right now. lisa: this is a real issue amrita sen was talking about. people don't want to invest in fossil fuels in the same kind of way, and what you get is a lack of investment that will lead to oil prices going higher, and perhaps some of these names being out performers, but nobody wants to hold them because of the esg consideration.
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tom: the legendary bill sneed with phenomenal performance saying oil is a place to be comfortable. i've got to say, on the ev front, the single best experience i have ever had are your glorious electric cabs in london. i want one. i don't know what they are called, but they are phenomenal. caroline: they are made by a chinese maker. i'm not sure. i'm not sure. i and you look into that. but it is unnerving how silent they are. i'm just waiting for next year when suddenly, all of the bmw's come on tap, the vw's come on tap. we will see what the competition looks like for the almighty tesla. tom: i think you are dead on. i don't have any answers, but to me which we talked to mary bar at -- two mary barra at general motors, you've got to listen. lisa: every time you bring up
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the london cabs, i think, how are we going to finagle a road trip to go tech them out? tom: it is penciled in. i would really rather not talk about it on here. with immense respect for dr. schwab, he and his team at the world economic forum, they have got some tough decisions to make. lisa: as does everyone else who has to do with this pandemic right now. tom: you have just got to wonder where we are on davos. we are working towards dollars. importance comfort -- towards davos. important conversations there. there are some real challenges ahead. we say good morning to the world economic forum. stay with us. helane becker on the airlines. this is bloomberg. leigh-ann: with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. president joe biden is warning unvaccinated americans that they face what he calls a winter of severe illness and death.
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the president urged initial doses and booster vaccines in the midst of a surge of cases. he did say the spread of the omicron variant has been slowed for now. more evidence of the omicron variant's ability to evade vaccines, according to a study. covid jabs from johnson & johnson and cap china's -- and china's sinopharm were found to produce less antibodies against omicron. the same goes for russia's vaccine. in the u.k., it was a stunning political defeat for prime minister boris johnson. his ruling conservative party has lost a key parliamentary election to the liberal democrats, ac the party held since it was created in 1832. johnson says he understands voters' frustrations with his leadership. amazon customers in the u.k. will now be able to pay in monthly installments, as result
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of a new tie up between the online retailer and barclays. purchases of $133 or more on amazon will be eligible for the new flex of a payment method. buyers will be able to spread out the cost from between three months to four years. a key european authority has issued a key negative opinion on biogen's controversial treatment for alzheimer's disease. in june, the u.s. regulators approved the results. i'm leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪
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turning to an endemic that we could then manage on a seasonal basis with the technology we have. we are not seeing it in our bookings in a material way. some international, yes. but it is something that i think come over time, we will look back and it was another step to get healthy. tom: i will not mince words. in my pandemic travel, the best service has been mr. bastian's fortress, delta of atlanta. trying to manage the message for all of us into the holiday season. jonathan ferro on sabbatical. caroline hyde in a beleaguered london. helane becker, our senior research analyst at cowen, the airline franchise at cowen has been globally respected for decades. we are thrilled you could join us this morning. i want to get to the story of the moment and do sell side 101. your single best buy right now
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is united airlines. they are down 17% since valentine's day 2020. why, when the airlines get off the mat, is united going to be? the winner -- going to be the winner? helane: that is a good question. thank you for having me. they are leveraged to international and corporate. about half of their revenue comes from international travel. delta is seeing this, too. we could easily have gone with delta, although they are less exposed to international. the key element is that consumers are buying up into premium economy or into premium seats because the price points between the two have narrowed, and people find that they like having that little extra room or little extra comfort in the front of the cabin. they get extra miles with the more expensive tickets.
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which i think is important to people because they work towards free tickets and upgrades faster. but with united, they are adding a lot of service this summer, especially into leisure international destinations, places that have never really had international nonstop service from the u.s., like mall orca, norway. tom: the points guy, brian kelly, worships of the altar of helane becker. are miles going to matter after the pandemic? helane: yes, i think so. i think that is why you see card acquisition increasing. one of the things united did yesterday and delta said yesterday is that they are seeing the increases in a number of cards being issued. i think it is millennials who weren't supposed to own anything and now own stuff and have
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bought all the things they need to buy, so we are now going to see an increase in service spend once the pandemic becomes endemic, which we also think is going to happen sometime in the first or second corder of next year, or at least people will realize it. then i think we will see more people travel, and of course, if you spend on the card to buy your things, if you are buying clothing to go back to the office or you are buying washing machines or dryers to replace broken ones or to get out of your house, then i think you are going to want those miles to earn free trips quicker. lisa: in the meantime, we are still dealing with omicron which is not fully been priced in. what is your view with united, delta, and american air, that have lost more than 20% of their value since the beginning or middle of november? helane: it is priced in. i think investors think it is
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not priced in are being shortsighted. the stocks have underperformed, to your point, quite a lot in the last four weeks, in an environment where we are seeing really good strength. we saw a record thanksgiving traffic. domestic leisure is above pre-pandemic levels. pricing is above fourth-quarter 2019 levels. we are going to see very strong revenue this quarter, and it is going to be partially offset inflationary pressure and wages, and fuel for sure, but fuel costs aren't even as high as we thought they were going to be. they have come down a little bit. going into the first quarter, we think that after the first week of january, we will see about three to four weeks of a slowdown, and then we think mid-february, i ran president's day -- around president's day week, we will see a pickup, and that will continue through the summer. caroline: it is interesting that in the u.k. and europe, some of the airlines have been clamoring
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for more government support, wringing their hands at the latest need for pcr tests travel internationally, saying that is going to wreak havoc on their bookings. what real-time data are you looking at? is it always the tsa data? helane: that is a good question. we rely on tsa data first and foremost because that gives us the best read on what is happening exactly today. not only tsa. we get the data from eurocontrol as well. in terms of the forward bookings, we rely on arc. it gives us the number every week, so we rely on that as well. we don't have a credit card company with which we are associated. tom: i've got to ask you this news driven question. airbus is cleaning boeing's clock. what do they talk about and she ech -- in chicago and seattle
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today to write the ship? helane: i think the key element is getting the 787's delivered again. that is number one. i thing the other big issue is getting the maxes out there and in the air again, which is happening. i have flown the max a few times now i just love it. it is a great plane, and my opinion. tom: helane becker at cowen on aviation. thank you so much. we make light about this, but there's a real angst to travel at this moment. lisa: it is exhausting to travel because of how any pcr tests you have to take, where you are going to take them, when you have to take them, what the restrictions are going to be when you leave because they could change in the process. how many people are staying home because of that, or even adjusting what their appetite is going forward? tom: now for the most important observation of the day, we go to caroline hyde in london.
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what are you going to do about the fees at heathrow? i mean, it is an outrage, the taxes and fees that it costs to fly through lhr. how did this happen? caroline: i think tax is how it happened, and a government that needs to raise money in some ways to dig ourselves out of the spending hole we have had throughout covid. people are relatively inelastic when it comes to flights. i am looking at flying to the u.s. on generally second. -- on january 2. the flights are extraordinarily expensive for economy. i am wondering whether the prices will come down in some way. tom: i don't mean to interrupt, but i think you may be able to get the "surveillance" call stream on january 2. i know ferro for certain is done. tom: he needs -- lisa: he needs a fiat to capri? tom: he has to stop
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tom: good morning. we welcome all of you with futures at -29, dow futures -145, and the vix a little but of angst, the vix up 22.02. a modest find of $200 million, something easily affordable for jp morgan. they announce fines over message lapses. caroline hyde and lisa abramowicz with us. i am sorry. this is a huge deal. buried within is does your employer have rights to your iphone messages and email? lisa: how did the work from home era complicate scrutiny?
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what are the parameters the banks should have when it comes to scrutinizing what you do on your personal devices? there been different kinds of missives, understanding we do not know all of the details. it adds another layer of complication to what was already highly confusing with people texting on their iphones in order to remain outside of the bank system. how they do this without putting up some of their employees? tom: how is this addressed in london? caroline: we have to -- the work from home scenario was confusing when you had bankers from one bank in the same apartment as bankers from another bank, and how you keep that wall to ensure you're not hearing each other's conversation? there was deep concern, now we see going back to 2018, what that messages, maybe they are text messages and trying to
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cycle what was work and what was play. that is a huge amount of task for an individual, let alone an entire bank. tom: that story out and i want to get good citation to people on this. also just out, turkey halting equity and equity to riverine -- equity derivative debt. bricklin dwyer is chief economist at mastercard. he is saying when do i get to talk after turkish lira and jp morgan sanctions. let's talk about the holiday season. talk to us about the economic analysis of our transaction. bring over your remit at mastercard to the new digital world. >> thanks for having me. just to bring that home, what we try to do with the economics institute is to come up with
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unique economic measurements of what is happening in the world. i am focused on those underlying trends to make the unique twist and capture the secular twist as opposed to the specific number. tom: do you have confidence that online, and obviously amazon is dominant, you have confidence people like you can count the impact and rate of change of digital? bricklin: it a great question. what we have done to make sure we have a good idea what is happening online and how to calculate that as we have partnered with the imf and friends at harvard and a forthcoming paper. where we look at that shift to digital and how permanent it is in different sectors. that is critical. lisa: as we look at 2021, it has been supported in the united states by a strong consumer with
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the huge amount of cash in their back pocket and they are looking to spend it on durable goods and other items they can buy in the store. this is been the big question into 2022. how much did they start to pare back their purchases, especially given the inflationary outlook? do you have any insight as to whether you are seeing anything that? bricklin: as an economy gets richer, people tend to spend more on services. this is been something we have seen for the last 27 years where economies have spent more money on services, less money on goods. what we have done is look at the measurement of goods versus services, we have seen that 27 year trend unwind and start to see is people are locked in their homes more of the spending shifting to goods. now as we see the reopening and the reemergence of folks around the world, you are seeing that friendship back. that is great -- that trend
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shift back. that is critical for how things will evolve as we think about inflation and the rebalancing between goods and services. lisa: that is what paula krugman was talking about in the new york times. we have concentrated our purchases and a small group of things. are we seeing signs people are shifting to services and paying less for the inflation is that much less prevalent in terms of those expenditures? bricklin: when we look at that shift, the 27 year trend, we have seen an unwind of about 6%. quite significant. you can see the details in our report if you google the mastercard economics institute, our latest report. that unwind, and what paul and others are talking about is the delayed effect on inflation and it matters how you measure inflation. we are looking at what people are spending and the carts fear
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-- in the cart sphere -- that translates into a lot of these services like housing and other stuff -- it is important to appreciate the big rise in housing prices has yet to show up in a lot of inflation around the world. we will see some of that as well as services prices coming up as the goods demand has faded. we will see the goods prices start to fade away. kailey: -- caroline: i'm interested in how real-time the data is you are looking at and whether you are seeing omicron filter into any of it. you talk about services, you talk about getting on airlines. we just had helane becker talking about airlines. you see any nervousness? bricklin: we are seeing both sides. we see the real-time impact when we look at things like the biden
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administration announcement to simplify travel rules. we see a big pickup in travel. the micron effect has affected -- the omicron effect has affected economies. most economies have taken more precautionary measures. less of an impact on consumer spending thus far. tom: thank you so much. bricklin dwyer with mastercard. it is always good news to have damian sassower join us on em. i want to focus on the unraveling of mr. erdogan. it becomes about the people of turkey and we are seeing that on this friday morning. with turkish lira depreciation through 17, i have the turkish stock market up 43% and down 37% year to date in u.s. dollar. it is beginning to unravel. what does that signal for mr. erdogan?
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damian: not much good. there may be a call for an early election. the elections are scheduled for june 2023, a lot of people calling for a regime change. we had forecast growth in 2022 of something north of 3%, that is out the door. annual inflation we hope to remain around 20%. that is out the door. unemployment at 11%. things are going to get worse. tom: the history you and i studied, our global institutions to the rescue. can the world bank, the international monetary fund, president biden, can they rescue mr. erdogan? they can but they will not. turkey is a different animal altogether. think about how many locals have money sitting offshore. when the lira declines, the wealth effects on those
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households are quite goods. there dollars offshore are worth that much more. we should approve export competitiveness. this move is nothing short of spectacular. my colleague in london is looking for the lira -- they have buffers, but they would need to get a 20 before the banks rollover. lisa: let's say president erdogan is kicked out of office and there is a new leader who believes in a traditional central banking all of the that calls for rate hikes, not rate cuts. will that fortify the lira or will it require something more? damian: only if it would result in a regime that would pivot towards the west and one that would approach the u.s. and europe with open arms. that is not for me to say. we are some way off from elections. my speculation that erdogan would even call for an early election given that approval is
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that an all-time low and your hearing about all this going on the ground, it is anyone's guess. the concerns are well justified. where we go from here? the top is off. caroline: the top is off, and this is a personal story, this is people in turkey. a beautiful story from our bloomberg colleagues about those in the heartland's turning hostile to erdogan. does it have spillover effects towards the rest of em? damian: from our perspective the banks have built enough buffers to stem the blow. we know foreign bank claims on turkish banks are $140 billion. those most exposed domestically, the banks their least exposed, the turkish banks should weather the storm better than others. it will be the financial system. the top is off.
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they do not have the reserves to protect the lira from plummeting. tom: the shift on a friday afternoon in ankara and istanbul. damian sassower, thank you. at bloomberg intelligence, these people are adults. lisa: they have incredible perspective and incredible history in the market. also with incredible history in the market is robert tipp of the gym. we will be speaking -- of pgim. we will be speaking with him on the open. he says the bond market is not noise, it is signal. tom: stay with us. futures -31. just got an email in. i need an ugly sweater. no i do not.
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leanne: u.s. regulators have find jp morgan $200 million for breaking rules on employee communications. bank officials were supposed to make sure workers messages -- platform such as whatsapp or personal email messages. chinese spies have been accused of using huawei technology and their secret telecom hack. bloomberg has learned that took place in australia in 2012. australian officials say it began with a software update loaded with malicious code. u.s. authorities have warned for years that while products poses security threat for any country that doesn't use them. positive -- that does use them. positive news from the omicron variant in south africa. authorities have reported less hospital -- the number of cases
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remains high compared to previous waves of the coronavirus. south africa announced the discovery of the omicron variant on november 25. in the u.s. there is been a wave of shooting rats on tiktok and other media threats and it has prompted several school closings . a number of schools have boosted police presence. tiktok says it is working with law enforcement to assess those risks. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the vaccine will prevent some level of infection, but they will make a big dent in terms of severe disease. will be dealing with this as a virus similar to influenza. that is where we will be in a few months. tom: the doctor from johns hopkins with an update on the pandemic. so much concern of our families, team surveillance, doll listening and watching. lisa abramowicz preparing for an eventful market opening. dow futures -137. caroline hyde in for jonathan ferro. we are thrilled to extend our pandemic discussion today with lauren sauer of the university of nebraska medical center. her heritage in baltimore, maryland noted. thank you for joining us. i am seeing headlines from pfizer and i'm not asking you to translate them for us. one headline is -- when we hear
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the booster talk, when we hear booster talk, or the kids talk on vaccines, how important is that versus the blunt instrument of getting everybody vaccinated? lauren: when we think about boosters, we have to consider the global population that needs their first and second toast of some of these vaccines. boosters can be important and i think we will see we will start to need boosters regularly as this becomes more of a seasonal virus we deal with. right now the blunt instrument is getting everyone vaccinated is the most important tool we have. looking for ways to reach populations not getting vaccinated yet, having important conversations between health-care workers and people still unsure about vaccination,
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making sure parts of the world that do not have current access to vaccines for various supply chain or purchasing reasons, all of those are the most important steps right now. tom: what is so important, and i think it is less spoken of in america, is how far behind we are stop italy, 85% vaccinated. united states 61% vaccinated. mario draghi wins, biden loses. caroline: i will not begin to say about the premier league and what some of the players are there, even more because it is only about 60% getting their first vaccine. you make such a good point. from country to country the vaccination rates, but also the testing ability. this is what fascinates me. the ease with which i can get a lateral flow. the difficulty with which you
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find the lateral flow handed out in the united states. how much will we be missing in terms of real data? lauren: it is missing data, and when you do not have that denominator you do not have the picture. one of the things we need to do a much better job of in united states is not just making testing -- we are moving towards making testing free but we need to make it available. you should not have to go from drugstore to drugstore to get the test. with omicron we have to make sure the tests we are delivering do work. the science has to catch up very quickly. it is happening on the science side but we need to make sure anyone who wants a lateral flow test at any point can get it. caroline: pfizer headline saying -- i'm to make a very selfish question as i have a two-year-old and a four-year-old , how important is it to get the
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children vaccinated? how much are they likely to be carriers? how much it is it for school? lauren: getting children vaccinated is so important. one of the challenges we have faced is making sure kids go back to school when we see the surges. we do not want to be in the position when we are closing schools and because it's are getting exposed, they are taking infections home and exposing more at risk love ones. getting kids vaccinated is a huge portion of how we address this problem at a global level. kids need vaccination. they will need vaccination to keep the global population and themselves safe. tom: i looked up the tenure track record of how many people -- the 10 year track record of how many people die from the flu
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every year, i will i buy it at worst-case 58,000. 107 people a day die of the flu. are we at a point yet where conflating a better covid, less purulent -- a less virulent covid with flu, are we there yet? lauren: it is still a new and dangerous disease and we have a ton of people who have had no exposure yet. we get more protected as the flu move through the population every year and we get exposed to it. we improve our vaccines based on what we see coming around the globe. that is not where we are at yet with covid-19. the people were being newly exposed, their bodies are maybe seeing covid for the first time.
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we have a long way to go before we get to where this is seasonal flu. tom: lauren sauer with university of nebraska. thank you very much. all of that very good. i look at the wrapup, futures -30, deterioration in the market. i have to go back to the stunning equity observation to buy quality. that seems to be where the zeitgeist lands on friday. caroline: quality, when is it ever bad, even when it comes to a fine christmas jumper. whether big tech is the place to be putting your money, whether they can calm some of the margin erosion we will get through inflationary pressures, or whether it is time to get out of big tech and start to find those quality elements. interesting talking about visa, paypal.
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certainly will be turning towards our credit cards this time of year. tom: all part of the new technology and the division between profitable technology and the less profitable. i want to bring your attention to global wall street on a friday where we are slipping up to parties and gatherings. on the bloomberg and on the iphone, on the bloomberg iphone, it will be simple. you will want to look at usd t.r.y.. we have turkish 10 year at a level back a decade. turkish lira pushing 17 again. for those of you not up to speed, this is such a shocking number to see 16.91 on turkish lira it is buttressed to breakthrough 17 to a new record weakness, 17.20. there could be news in the late afternoon out of ankara and istanbul.
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right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: let's begin with the big issue. markets adjusting to a new regime of monetary policy. >> the fed is close to lifting off. >> they have to open up their options. >> some of this is confidence in the central banks to say they are dealing with it. >> i think they have been trying to catch up. >> the bank of england said the impact of omicron will be assessed in february. >> doing the right thing is focusing on the labor
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