dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters, it has just gone 6:00 a.m. in london. i am dani burger and this is "daybreak: europe." senator joe manchin delivers a potentially fatal blow to president biden's to trillion dollar -- $2 trillion spending plan. risk off, stocks slide amid virus concerns.

plus, more restrictions. the netherlands go into lockdown as the u.k. does not rule out more curbs before christmas. happy monday. we are in the home stretch to the holiday season, unless you have already taken the week off. our attention turns away from the santa claus rally into toward a package that for many americans is no longer going to come. i am talking about the build back better build. the key vote is no longer supporting. goldman cutting its growth forecast next year by 50%. we have seen markets selloff this morning. for one advisor, saying for the market, the failure is not the worry, it is the untimely rejection at the ugly turn of the pandemic. the physical drop will hit at a moment of searching covid cases.

the white house projection was a drop of 9% next year if we don't get the passage of the economic plans presented by biden. do traders need to price in slower growth, lower yields, a flattened yield curve? we are seeing some of that action this morning. looking at the future session, down more than 1%. but it is the economically sensitive equities taking the most of the beating. looking at the russell 2000's, down more than 2%. european futures down more than 2%, and asia down nearly 2% as well. down yields across the board. about four basis points on the 10 year. following yields this morning among the economic growth story also reflected in crude, down 3.4%.

i also want to turn our attention to the lira, hitting another record low, it has been record low after record low for the currency after president erdogan saying over the weekend he will act in line with islamic teachings when it comes to interest rates, saying he valves more cuts for turkey. as we have been discussing, president joe biden's economic agenda is up in the air and this after senator joe manchin rejected the spending package. let's bring in our senior editor. how big of a blow is this for biden? derek: a massive blow for joe biden, for the prospects for his economic agenda. the white house put out a blistering statement suggesting they were blindsided joe manchin's move, saying they only gotta -- only got about 30 minutes of notice on something like this. this is a pretty big hit and a

pretty big hit not just to the agenda that biden's overall appeal. economically, you mentioned the goldman analysis. that is certainly out there, you can see that stuff going on. i am not convinced this legislation is all the way dead. it may be only mostly dead, which is still partly alive. what i mean by that is you could still go into this bill, pick out some things that are literally popular that your mansion supports. things like child tax credits, things like pre-k and things like that for working parents. there are some things that could still make the foundation of a pretty big lift, just not as big as before. the other thing that is key here

that people are not realizing they will soon, is that when joe manchin is talking about the debt being too high, he is not saying let's go pass a radical budget that puts us into balance right now, which would be tax hikes and defense cuts, things like that. he is saying let's slow the growth of spending. so you are thinking ok, this omicron thing is going to precipitate another massive u.s. rescue package, you are getting an argument from joe manchin that says we cannot spend a ton of new money and obligate a ton of new money right now. you have to factor that logic in for what you can get 50 votes for. in sum, mostly dead, not all the way dead. and it has an effect not just grounded to build back better.

dani: the question really is what happens to the economy if we get fiscal support starting to run off without something like build better to replace it. derek, always great to have you on. that news out of washington has been hitting rockets sentiment really hard this morning. we also have a reduction in borrowing costs in china, but that is not easing the negative mood. the loan prime rate cut for the first time in 20 months. for more, let's bring in our china economy reporter. why do this now and ultimately what does it mean for china's economy? tom: well, this move to cut the loan prime rate, which is the rate banks charge to their best customers, will make it easier for companies to borrow to invest, and also crucially for property companies under intense financial strain, to borrow to

refinance their debt. in theory, it provides something of a tailwind for the chinese economy, which has been growing sharply the last few months, driven by a slowdown mainly in the property sector, which has dragged growth below 5%. and it is clear beijing is not happy with growth being at the level it is and it is going into easing mode. there have been a range of different policies. this is the latest one and it is ultimately about banks passing on lower funding costs which they got through reserve requirement rate cuts last week on to their customers. i don't think that it's going to be seen as enough to turn around this slowing trend in the chinese economy and it is likely we will see further easing measures early next year if, as we expect, aging wants to see

growth above 5% next year. dani: tom, thank you. our china economy reporter. let's turn to omicron, which has been spreading fast around the world. the netherlands going into lockdown, closing schools and nonessential shops, and limiting the number of visitors allowed in households. in the u.k., the health secretary has refused to rule out stronger restrictions before christmas to contain infections. joining us is michelle cortez. michelle, will we have to go through all of this again, another round of restrictions and lockdowns as we work through the holiday season? michelle: it doesn't seem like we are back to the beginning again. we are seeing record numbers of infections in many parts of the world and we are expecting it to only get worse when we hear the omicron variant is 70 fold more infectious than delta.

it is important to remember we do have many tools already like vaccinations and treatments, but we are hearing from people like dr. fauci in the u.s. anyway, they don't expect additional lockdown measures. but israel and other places, we will see more restrictions. schools close, mask mandates will come back. while we might not see global lockdowns across the board, absolutely it will affect the economy, it will affect growth, and we are definitely not done with coronavirus anytime in the near future. dani: michelle, thank you as always. let's get to the bloomberg first word news with laura wright. laura: hong kong has reported its lowest ever turn out in legislative elections as voters boycotted an electoral system recently overhauled by beijing. 30% down from 58% in the

previous election. all candidates on the ballot have been vetted for loyalty to china's communist party. the u.k. foreign secretary is to have post-brexit negotiations in addition to her current job. frost has resigned and implied he was unhappy with the increasing covid restrictions. turkish present when -- president erdogan is using islamic teaching as the basis for policy push. he said turkey will not go away from its economic model. the lira is the world's worst performing currency the last three months, losing all must have its value against the dollar. spider-man: no way home posted the second-highest opening in north american history.

it was only available in theaters. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: laura, thank you. coming up, we will keep an eye on the turkish lira. it has hit another record low after president erdogan pledged further rate cuts. first, we dive into goldman's call to cut the u.s. gdp by 50% after the build back better plan looks under threat. this is bloomberg. ♪ omberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe."

following senator joe manchin's comments, goldman sachs has lowered its forecast for u.s. economic growth in the first three quarters of next year. he commented that he will not support the build back better bill. joining us is our guest. lucy, great to have you on the program this morning. you have goldman reducing their outlook, your current protection for gdp in the u.s. is a 4% in 2022. is that under threat at all now given might not have this big infrastructure bill passed in the u.s.? lucy: clearly. the growth rate is going to be slower next year anyway, from a very strong year this year. so it will be slowing anyway if there is no stimulus coming through, it will be slower again. the other side is it means the interest rates expectations will come down. it's not completely dead yet, as we know, but that will increase

the deceleration. dani: we have looked at a bond market that to some degree doesn't really believe the fed is going to be able to be as hawkish as you want. the bond market remarkably calm last week as well. what do you make of those signals? who is right, the fed projections or bond market skepticism? lucy: well as of this morning, it looked like the bond market is well-informed because it looks like there will be more of a deceleration then expected. they are winning today. dani: fair enough. there has been remarkable top and markets because of this -- remarkable chop in markets because of this. is this just a sign of things to come? to be completely give up hopes for a santa claus rally? lucy: it has been a very strong

year, and we have had markets growing in mid teens, in the u.s. better than that, mid 20's, with financial, tech, and energy, an odd combination, driving those returns. any equity investor will have good gains they want to take profits. it is very late in the year. you've had that rally all year. dani: speaking of not being too greedy, does that mean the rotation also needs to be out on some of these highflying tech stocks? already we have seen -- i think we have a chart out of grows into value. lucy: yeah. my recommendation has been this year to diversify away from those highly valued area which

is interest-rate sensitive, and to have either more value in -- or just more balance. i think that is broadly right. it is likely to continue into next year. dani: i know at this point you want to stay invested, so what do you say to investors who look at the market right now and say i want to just be on the sidelines and not be involved? lucy: well, you should always be involved long-term in equities. it has been a very strong year and you can take some profits. but we know you can never really time the equity markets very well. but you do stay i think well

diversified from the most interest-rate sensitive areas of the market, that are really dependent on the long bond yields. dani: we've seen in a lot of these investor sentiment surveys that it tends to be the fed policy risk cited as the biggest curtail for 2022. what is the biggest risk for next year? lucy: i think it is that, the part of interest rates and liquidity withdrawal. liquidity has been the biggest support for this market and the bull run. i know we are talking about fiscal, it has not made any difference, it is all about liquidity. as we get a deceleration and growth, that liquidity will be the main focus for people. i think if you stand back and look at what certainty we have in this uncertain world, the certainty is there is a lot of debt in the system. we have inflation in the system,

that is certain. and we know that china is going to be quite supportive of growth this year. so those are the certainties. so look at what we know for sure and invest on that, i would say. dani: how do you traded the certainty of a china that is diverging from the path of the fed, of a pboc that is easing as we face a more hawkish fed? lucy: look at your allocation to the region. there have been problems this year because of the china property market in particular. and leaving a little more value there. if you get more stimulus in that region, i would look at your allocation to the region.

you might get a more upside. dani: lucy, thank you so much. you will stick around with us. coming up, wilder swings. we look at market volatility up at a time when we have central bank liquidity, as lucy has been discussing, starting to pull back. we will continue the conversation next. this is bloomberg. ♪ omberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's continue the conversation on global markets, where volatility is picking up at a time when the omicron variant is spreading fast, and the promise of an ending central bank liquidity is becoming more of a reality. lucy is still with us.

we just left the conversation talking about some of the certainties out there. where are your highest areas of conviction at this moment? lucy: well, there is a list of three i think are worth looking at. one is diagnostics. that has been a strong area through covid and i think it will continue. covid is not going to go away in a hurry. and the fact that testing is possible now closer to the patient, i think that will be something where lab capacity and reagents are going to be needed. that is one area i would definitely think has more legs to it. secondly, energy equipment and infrastructure. we see what's happening in

energy markets. that is not going to go away in a hurry. we need infrastructure to make the climate transition. so i think energy saving will be a continued focus. and we mentioned asia, that to me is an area where there potential for catch up. it is an area where you've got some good long-term structural growth. dani: if we focus on asia specifically, we have looked at china of course, a zero covid policy. we look at factories of shutting down to contain some of that. how big of a risk is the omicron spread in general in asia to your outlook? lucy: it is a threat everywhere to the outlook in growth and one of the uncertainties we have to

live with. but china went into it early, as we know, and came out of it relatively early. the omicron will have an impact. they are ahead of the curve for one reason or another. they are in a position where they want to be stimulating their growth into next year. dani: we did talk a moment ago about divergence between the pboc and the fed. i wonder if we don't confront a future are necessarily china and the u.s. are diverging in terms of economic growth, at some point we see china's growth slowing down, will the u.s. economy start to look similar? will the u.s. have a similar growth project -- growth trajectory as china?

lucy: the structural growth is unlikely to be quite the same because you are still in china. there is a lot of catch up with income and the consumer. it is still emerging from that point of view. but at the moment, the growth rate is more similar because of the recovery you are seeing in the u.s. from the downturn. but the part of interest rates are going different ways. that's why i think to look at malaysia. dani: if we look at the u.s., michael hartman at bank of america is still bearish on u.s. equities, he doesn't want to invest more until we see a capitulation. are you in the same camp that we are likely to see a capitulation here and that serves as an entry point? lucy: it is always nice.

the u.s. has been absolutely extraordinary in keeping your markets going. when you look at the divergence between the u.s. and elsewhere in this last year, it really quite extraordinary that that is still the best performing area. that has led obviously to higher valuation. valuation in the mid-20's, so not quite so extreme but the u.s. does to look more expensive than elsewhere. there isn't too much absolute value. there hasn't been for years. there still isn't. so a selloff would be good from that perspective. dani: lucy, thank you for joining us this morning, we appreciate your time on this monday.

coming up, we continue the conversation of our top story, no mansion delivering a potentially fatal blow to president biden's $2 trillion spending plan. we will have more next and the impact to markets, will we see every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.

dani: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters, it has just gone 6:30 in london. i am dani burger. this is "daybreak: europe." senator joe manchin delivers a potentially fatal blow to president biden's $2 trillion spending plan. goldman cuts its u.s. gdp forecast. stocks slide amid growth and virus concerns.

plus, more restrictions. the netherlands go into lockdown as the u.k. doesn't rule out more curbs before christmas. it is a risk on kind of day, -- risk off kind of day. we look at the possibility that a fiscal runoff in the u.s. comes head-to-head with rising virus cases. we are looking at equities across the board selling off. what is driving markets? according to global advisors, it is not just the failure of the build back at her bill that is the worry, it is the timely ejection by mansion at an ugly turn in the pandemic. these things coming head-to-head. we were talking to lucy mac donald, who said you want to stay invested but how do you do that in a volatile market? she said you invest in more quality names, health care and diagnostics, and energy has potential. goldman cutting its outlook, and

there is the virus that countries are rattling with and adding more restrictions. we have lines out of germany, the economy minister saying they will need stricter curbs but not lockdowns. saying stricter contact curbs and a closing of nightclubs is likely, on top of other restrictions we have seen throughout europe. that means the global markets a screen is not a pretty one on this monday morning as we gear up for the holidays. china down 1.5% despite that we have had some easing coming from the pboc, the central bank. it is all of those higher risk type currencies moving lower, you have the dollar, the commodity currency, under pressure. that does reflect what you are seeing in the commodities column. looking at crude, gas, the only standout is iron ore. copper moving lower.

this is the kind of market reassessing growth. doesn't the growth outlook need to change if there is less stimulus from the u.s.? president joe biden's economic agenda is up in the air after senator joe manchin rejected his $2 trillion spending package. >> if i can't go home and explain it to the people of west virginia, i cannot vote for it. and i cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation, i just can't. this is a no on this legislation. dani: let's bring in our cross asset reporter. thank you for joining us today. we are certainly looking at markets selling off at the moment, but how much of this is a headwind in markets given that the spending package cannot get through the senate, or how much of this is a short-term gut punch reaction? andrea: yeah, i think that is a good question.

biden's likely torpedo of these been package has come at an incredibly volatile time for markets. we have seen volatility through the end of the year, it has come as you are seeing the spread of the omicron variant we don't know much about except it is spreading very fast and it is leading to some curbs, especially in the you up. not so much in the u.s. at the moment. especially in europe, which is why you are seeing euro stoxx underperforming u.s. futures. it's coming at a time when investors have been fretting about tighter monetary policy. so the withdrawal of stimulus from that part. so yeah, a lot of headwinds coming together today, and joe manchin's shock move, it's just

an unfortunate time for markets already on tenterhooks. and just worrying about what will come in 2022. dani: it really does feel that volatility in the market is the only sure thing at the moment. not even china, banks cutting borrowing costs, could alleviate some of the stress we are seeing. that ltr cut in china, what is the story behind that? andrea: that's right, we saw that cut. china has been committed to stability. it wasn't a surprise, perhaps the timing was a surprise. not many people were expecting it right now. it was a relatively small cuts. given the other headwinds today, it really did not have much of an impact. i think investors are still digesting this, and as we move into next year, perhaps they will look at china, which is

easing compared to the u.s., which is tightening, and perhaps there will be some support for risk assets when investors digest that. but today it had very little impact given what is going on in washington and the omicron variant. dani: our last guest was saying she likes asia. thank you for joining us today. our cross asset reporter. let's get to the bloomberg first word news with laura wright. laura: new york city's mayor called on the federal government to step up supplies for testing and treatment after a spike in infections caused by the omicron variant. new cases in the city have tripled over the last month to a level bill de blasio described as really shocking. meanwhile, the u.k. health secretary has declined to rule out stronger covid rules before christmas, and estimates are new cases are hundreds of thousands per day. omicron is the central variant

in many parts of the u.k. hong kong had the lowest turnout for elections as voters boycotted the system recently retooled by beijing. all candidates on the ballot had been invented for loyalty to john is commonest party -- china's communist party. blackrock is acquiring luxury apartments in manhattan. they are in advanced talks to acquire a residential tower for 900 $30 million from brookfield asset management. it is the latest in a series of recent that's on the staying power of new york's buildings. a tennis player denied accusing a senior party official of sexual assaults. the eight minute interview was the first time she directly addressed the allegations since concerns about her safety last

month. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thank you. laura wright there, in london. global dealmaking in the middle of a historic boom. it is the highest level of m&a since before the financial crash into thousand of them. here to wrap up the 2021 action is our senior u.k. correspondent and u.k. deputy chief. can this record pace of dealmaking continue? ruth: we are seeing central bank governors talk about hiking interest rates. they were historically low, which was one of the things driving record volumes. you are also talking about more scrutiny from the biden administration. the u.k. is looking more closely at these. we are seeing what is going on

in china. it was interesting this morning to look at the equity market indices and see how many of them are in the red, because one of the other things driving deal volumes this year was the sky high valuations of companies that gave ceos firepower to go out and do deals. that is one bit of it. we've also seen situations where companies from the likes of ge to j&j, to universal being spun off. companies focusing more on their core and we could see more of that next year for sure. we could see activists driving volume and just the kind of animal spirits we've been talking about this year in the markets, despite all going on in the world around us.

it doesn't seem like enthusiasm has faded. dani: we are seeing more chop in the public markets. that has helped ipo's to a large extent as well. what is the ipo market environment -- does the ipo market averment look like? is there concern that can continue on if we are looking at a more vulnerable market in the face of covid and the fed? ruth: ipo's had a record shattering year as well, and it was two things. so this fax -- the spac's. and also private equity players looking at these markets and thinking instead of just listing our companies, why don't we list ourselves? ppg has said it, we've been talking about and 10 -- anten. if you turn your eyes to china or some of the tech listings, whether that is didi, these

household technology names that have high-profile listings, they are trading below ipo price. if they are trading below ipo price, that might give some halt other companies looking at the market. spacs have cooled off in the u.s., there is more scrutiny from the fcc. but we are seeing more of that in europe. as long as the billionaires and bankers can find targets, i think it will continue. the height of the spac activity, one of my sources told me my dog can list a spac. i don't think that is the case yet but there is still enthusiasm. maybe a very well bred dog. dani: [laughs] there is enthusiasm for dog-based crypto. to what extent have we seen

influence in dealmaking? ruth: in europe we've been talking about them a lot for nearly a decade. this year it seems like they've had high-profile hits. also in the u.s., you so what happened with exxon. here we have seen bluebell. we seen elliott take on gsk. some of these storied names. we are seeing activists come in, and they are coming into situations where investors are unhappy maybe and pushing for change, driving dealmaking to an extent. we think that is going to continue. the thing is, when the activists drive a company to spin off an asset, you have five it equity waiting on the sidelines, which are huge levels of cash, to buy these assets. it seems like that mix of deals is here to stay. dani: such a pleasure to have

you here this morning. that is our senior u.k. correspondent for deals and deputy bureau chief. coming up, more rate cuts, president erdogan pledges to hike further. we will have more on the lira is at record low next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the et5 is a key product for us to as nio has long focused on suv's. we have been looking for a

product with a larger consumer base. all of our latest autonomous driving technology will be available in the et5. charlie: global chip shortage and supply chain disruptions have been impacting a lot of industries, including the ev sector because he uses a lot of chips. how has that affected your production? how will that affect the rollout of new production for you exterior? -- next year? william: it is a big challenge. our deliveries in august and october were affected by the chip shortage. our supply chain team needs to carefully communicate each chip's component delivery time with our partners every day. of course, we are seeing some good signs. starting next year, chip companies will increase the capacity of car chips which i think will be released the middle of next year or the third quarter. there is no doubt covid-19 has

made production more complex. even a shortage of one single-chip of the over 1000 units equipped on our car may affect production. charlie: chinese stocks listed in the u.s. have been affected by a lot of issues lately, including the delisting of didi. nio as a u.s. listed company, do you have any plan to shift your listing to hong kong following in the footsteps of others? william: we hope political issues won't affect much of our company's growth, and we will abide by the local laws and regulations. charlie: are you considering to list yourself in hong kong one day? william: anything is possible. charlie: you mentioned nio will enter 25 countries by 2025. can you give more details? when you plan to sell cars to the u.s. market? william: we have set up a

research department in san jose in 2015 with hundreds of staff to develop our global product. we started fiercely considering the north american market since 2017 by making our products more competitive. of course, we are still working on the plan. we will enter germany, sweden, denmark, and the netherlands next year. and more european countries the following year. our international strategy has always been making long-term plans and staying patient. dani: the nio ceo and cal -- co-founder saying the firm remains confident about direct -- delivering its new sedan. the lira at a new low after comments from president erdogan. our middle east correspondent joins us from doha.

it's not that it is new that president erdogan wants to cut interest rates. what is special about the comments he made on sunday? simone: no, it is not, this is something he has said any times, but the comments yesterday directly undermining what the central bank was talking about late last week when it cut interest rates again, saying there is limited extra room to cut rates further. that was something that could have had a stabilizing impact on the lira, and instead, we are hearing from erdogan saying more interest rate cuts ahead. also there were comments from a prominent business group calling for erdogan and his government specifically to stop this experimental monetary policy he has been advocating. instead, he fired back yesterday and said the group just wants to

see me out of power. escalating the dispute between prominent business leaders the erdogan government. dani: not being swayed from his path of calling for cutting of interest rates. what have you heard from analysts about how far the lira can weaken from this point? simone: we had someone on the program during daybreak: middle east, and he said there is no floor on the turkish lira, it can only get worse until we see some kind of policy shift. many analysts want the central bank to come in and hike rates. they see that as the most likely possibility for ending the downward slide in the lira, but clearly erdogan not on board, willing to get rid of folks in the government who seem to disagree. we have seen the central bank

doing some intervention in the markets to try and stop the slide in the lira, but so far that hasn't worked. there are only more bearish moments ahead as we look to 2022 and people look at the dollar more as the lira is weakening. dani: dollar lira at 17.4. how does this play out domestically? simone: this whole policy is really focused, or seen as being focused on erdogan's reelection chances. the idea is a huge amount of even to the point of overheating to stimulate job creation, and then people will vote for erdogan in an election that has to happen by june 2023. the risk, however, for erdogan, is the opposition unites behind

concerns about rising inflation. you see people standing in bread lines, people out of work, people unable to purchase the goods they need from abroad because the lira is not worth the same amount anymore. we are starting to see some of the opposition party try to come together, even though they have very different views on a lot of theological things and other things about the state, but agree the economy is an important issue, and also a return to a more parliamentary system. erdogan has done a lot of things that give him a lot of power, and so these parties are seeming to unite behind a desire to have a more parliamentary and perhaps more democratic system. still, we don't have a necessary or obvious contender to erdogan and there is a lot of time before those elections have to happen. dani: thank you for staying on top of the story for us. that is simone foxman. in just about seven minutes, we have the opening of the --

istanbul. coming up, crude tumbles as the fast spread of omicron threatens the demand picture. we will have more on that. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's dig into the oil story with crude extending declines as the rapid spread of the omicron variant increases concerns about the demand for outlook. from oi --for more, our oil reported joins us. what is driving prices and will volatility continue? sharon: that is right, we are seeing a lot of volatility. today, prices are down more than 3% as of this moment, and we

have to remember that the trading volumes are thin as we approach the holidays. the omicron variant is adding more headwinds as well as volatility to the oil market right now and we have fresh lockdowns introduced in parts of europe to stem the spread of omicron. cases have spiked in parts of the u.s. such as new york. that is weighing on risk sentiment near the year end. the brent spread, the market is looking more bearish and showing signs of softening already. dani: and you also have to wonder if we don't have the u.s. bill, if that will crimp demand. thank you. let's dig into these markets. as a sharon was saying, we are looking at crude declining. the one standout is iron ore, up 4.6% in the third column. this is the one asset that is

reacting positively to more cuts , more accommodations from china. that is it for us. european markets is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets: asia europe. i'm an edwards live in london. here are your top headlines. senator joe manchin delivers a potentially fatal blow to president biden's $2 trillion spending plan. goldman cuts u.s. gdp forecast. stocks and futures slide along with treasury yields amid growth and virus concerns. a cut