♪ >> the markets right now are cut between a rock and a hard place. we are seeing this mismatch between fiscal stimulus and central bank support winding down. >> growth is going to continue to be important, but it has to be profitable growth. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. kailey: good morning on bloomberg tv and radio. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." kailey leinz, gina martin adams, and guy johnson in for tom keene

, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz all week because it is the holidays. people are at the office, -- are out of the office, and that means volumes is light. guy: i think monday was an exception. saw a huge amount of turbulence. i think we are definitely winding down into the christmas holiday. a lot of people i think are just isolating. a lot of people don't want to go out at the moment. that probably is restricting their desire to trade as well, or their ability to trade. so the volume story has been tapering off. i'm here tomorrow. i will hate to see what it looks like then. kailey: i will be right there with you. this just seems to me like a market that is looking for a catalyst. the question is, is it going to get another one by the end of the year? gina: it seems unlikely, but the calendar would favor equities right now. this is the beginning of the so-called santa claus rally. maybe santa left early. yesterday we had a really nice rally. you would normally see

follow-through into the end of the year. the fact that we are not getting it, it has been a very volatile december so far. they be santa got off to a really rocky start into january 2020 as we continue with all of the omicron variant. kailey: i think back to 2018. then it was more about potentially a trade war. now we are talking about policy normalization in a still persistent pandemic. guy: there was a survey out overnight, and reading between the lines, the market is really confused. there are so many countervailing forces that work here. so many unknowns for next year. we got a lot of known unknowns going into next year. what does inflation look like? that seems to be a major catalyst one way or the other. it we can get some clarity on what it will look like, how will the fed react to that? what is going to happen with the variance? is it going to become trickier to manage? or, as the president seems to

suggest, i thought the president talked yesterday about the idea that we are now in the position where we need to learn to live with this, and i think that is a big policy shift. kailey: that may mean no lockdowns, no restrictions. the question is, does behavior change anyway as consumers are maybe a little worried about cutting the virus? how much is there a lack of disagreement in these market right now? brian nick, chief investment strategist at nuveen. as you look ahead to 2022, what do returns look like to you in a world of normalizing fiscal and monetary policy? brian: thanks for having me. we saw 2021 is really an upside surprise to interest rates, inflation, economic growth, corporate earnings growth, and ultimately returns, at least on the equity side. i think we will see less of that in 2022. people are paying attention to the prospect of monetary tightening, and on the lack of

fiscal stimulus which is exacerbated more by the fact that they don't appear to be moving forward on a proposed framework. i think the concept is so original. the first derivatives of the economy are prices. inflation will still be higher than normal. i, growth will still be a lot -- economic growth will still be a lot higher than normal. it is the second derivative. there's no reason to think corporate earnings won't support further gains in the equity market. it just won't be the present we got. guy: are we late cycle? if so, how different is this late cycle versus other late cycles? brian: i would not call this late cycle yet. the fed started to raise rates in 2015 and we were still in

what felt like a mid to light cycle as of the beginning of 2020. we know how that ended. just because we are talking about fed rate hikes does not mean the cycle is about to come to an end. that said, valuations on credit, on equities in the united states, they look like they are priced to be later in the cycle, but a lot of that is low interest rates are. the economic cycle i don't think is quite yet. we need to make sure we don't to low unemployment and end of overheating and getting higher inflation. we still think the cycle easily carries into the middle of this decade. kailey: for you and the rest of our listeners and viewers who don't live in tv world and might not know what a stock string is, it is basically when you to up what everyone says and did altogether to craft a narrative. guy: we use a lot of them, and kailey is like the guru. [laughter]

you want her to find all the great little bits that everyone is saying throughout the day, kailey leinz is the perfect person to turn to. kailey: that is the best compliment you could possibly give me. let's get back to the markets. gina: just a quick question for brian. with was picked to all of the prices in 2021, perhaps one of the biggest surprises is the fact that the yield curve pretty much went nowhere. we had this really big steepening in the yield curve in the early part of the year, adding to the optimism for risk assets, and since then we have given back all of that. what is the signal you take from the yield curve, and how are you, lamenting that into your forecast for the year ahead? brian: if you look at the 10 year specifically, it has been doing its own thing since the end of march. what i have taken from it is that the longer-term part of the u.s. treasury curve is responding in an interesting way to higher inflation data and the prospect of monetary tightening. normally you expect that head of the yield curve to respond to

higher inflation by seeing yields move higher, a signal the man should be -- signal demand should be hiking. we have seen the 10 year yield because they are not seeing as an inflation problem. they are seeing it is a fed tightening problem. so i would say the more stimulus we get, that the fed may have to hit the brakes hard, that may be good for a lot of our calls in the euro zone banks, but also small caps in the u.s. kailey: i know financials are your favorite sector. do you have to see the steeper euro curve -- the steeper yield curve for that to work out for you? brian: that can be fine for financials, but a steeper yield curve would be more them has of. i think we see inflation come down because it is about the fed what they are going to do. gina: one more signal from the

bond market worth noting is the fact that high-yield and high-grade spreads tend to be tight. if there is any cycle indicator, maybe we are looking at the bond market and saying we have already done a whole cycle within the course of the last year and a half. you are also pretty optimistic about small caps. can small caps lead the way in an environment where credit spreads don't have any more room to the downside? brian: you are right that that you are definitely correlated. we have seen spread cash we have seen credit spreads -- we have seen credit spreads come down a little bit. we are not quite at the lows we had over the summer. that can be correlated with a much better performance. i think that is a function of the yield curve and what a prominent role banks in particular play at a small-cap index. guy: if i've got fresh capital

to deploy at the beginning of next year, what would you advise me to do with it? do i put it straight into the market? do i wait? what kind of volatility are we going to see? what are we going to see that will have a big and meaningful impact on my performance in 2022? brian: i would say the best absolute return we think will continue to be in stocks. risk return, i think it is going to be not quite as stellar as this year. with those entry points are going to be, with their -- whether they are around hiking events, that is going to be hard to tell because it is so short-term, but if you are looking for higher risk-adjusted returns, we like a slew of different hybrid type investments. preferred stocks, very much in line with our financials on the income real. we like publicly traded

infrastructure, where they will be spending money on infrastructure budgets. those tend to be higher income as well, and have been a pretty good alternative. those are the areas where i think the best opportunity on a risk-adjusted basis probably is. kailey: thank you so much for sharing your thoughts with us this morning. no shots yet. it is only eight a clock in the morning. maybe guy is closer than gina and i are. i want to bring a headline to everyone from mayor bill de blasio -- from mayor bill de blasio in new york. he is saying there's a difference between government mandated policy to shut down and what these are actually doing because here you are seeing a lot, and in cities across the country, of restaurants and other places shutting now because staff is getting sick. gina: i think it perpetuates the conundrum the market has been tending with for several months now, and that is slightly slower

growth, may be materially slower growth, paired with the persistence of inflation pressure because the effective shutdowns globally is more and more inflation, more constraint on supply chains, less labor input to create the products that we need and create some really big storm for corporate markets. it is going to continue to be a problem into 2022. kailey: that is one factor this equity market has to consider. it goes nowhere with just over an hour to go until the opening bell. we are flat on sb features at 4639. the other thing this market is considering, the prospects of fiscal policy. we get build back better or something like that? we will talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. divide and demonstration is ramping up plans to fight the covid-19 pandemic as the omicron

variant continues to spread. bloomberg has learned the white house will take delivery of 4 million cova treatments by the end of january. the treatments include new antiviral pills that are waiting for the green light from the food and drug administration. that could come as soon as today. there are new concerns that anyone trying this holiday season my airline passengers are twice or three times more likely to catch covid-19 during a flight since the emergence of the omicron variant. the international aviation association says business class may be more affordable than economy. a crillon spokesperson said today he is hoping to come away from negotiations with clearly formulated positions. the comments come a day after president putin threatened a military response if kremlin

demand's are not met. it talks of russian proposals accessible. it looks likely to be delayed after a parliament tree committee said holding it on friday would be impossible. local media cited the head of the election commission i saying care officials had resigned amid a failure to hold -- ending a decade of conflict that has ravaged the country. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> we are going to work with anybody interested in taking steps to lower costs for the

american people, with or it is on child care or elder care or health care. we want to get build back better done because the packer hedges -- the comprehensive package is going to have an impact across the board. kailey: the white house wants build back better. that was the white house press secretary speaking yesterday. there's a massive question around the president's economic agenda. that a whole creates a question for financial markets. not seeing a lot of movement when it comes to futures. we are off session highs, but still down 0.10%. so we are talking fractional moves at this point. we want to dig more into this school question. we are looking to be joined by republican congressman brian styl -- congressman bryan steil. thank you for joining us. you put out a statement after joe manchin said he was a no on this plan. "common sense prevailed.

it is far too costly, pushing things that will not solve the economy." are there any parts within this legislation that would find your support? rep. steil: i think there's topics in the bill that republicans would come to the table and work on, but this bill was drafted in a partisan manner , and now a majority of the united states senate disapproves of it. manchin just being the sole democrat that has realized how transformative this bill is. there's key challenges this country is facing. childcare is a problem for so many families. we should be able to address the fact that we need to improve quality, make sure it is accessible, affordable. for you to look at the underlying provisions in this bill, and makes it less affordable. it makes it less available by putting federal mandates on it. drops quality because there's mandates that will ultimately make individuals currently providing childcare lose their jobs. so what we need to do is move away from the partisan approach

that this administration has taken since day one, and there are areas where we can come together to truly address the challenges this country is facing. kailey: you have worked across the aisle on the issue of child care. you worked with democratic colleagues on legislation to provide new parents with a $5,000 advance through the child tax credit. as an extension of that tax credit, a continuation of payments, something you would like to see happen? rep. steil: the bill i support as a reform relation of how the tax bill is provided. . . it does not raise taxes. it does not cost revenue. it just allows parents to pull that forward to the days after a child, where parents need the ability to stay home with their child. we do have common sense approaches. under the democratic provisions, what it is is a child allowance. it is money from the government not tied to work and not tied to the early days of a child after

birth. we need to scrap gold back better -- scrap build back better and get proposals that actually solve the problems americans are facing. guy: let me ask you a kind of high-level question. will the republicans do better in the midterms if the democrats pass build back better, or don't pass build back better? because i can see it both ways. i can see that the inflationary concern, there is a concern about an overheating economy that may work in your favor. but if they don't pass it, maybe there's a lot of people in your district and elsewhere who are going to feel they have been let down. can you walk me through, from your political point of view, what you see happening here? rep. steil: i will never cheer against the united states of america for political purposes. the concern is we need to stop build back better in its tracks today. we've got this thing on hold with senator manchin.

we need to continue to prevented from moving forward. if it does, it would be disastrous for the united states economy. americans are already feeling inflationary pressures every day when they go to fill up their car, when they go to the grocery store, when they are going christmas shopping in the final days before christmas. build back better would simply drive costs higher. it will clobber americans in the pocketbooks. going back to childcare, many economists redid it would increase the cost of childcare by $13,000. talk about inflation. if this bill passes, i think it will be as unpopular for the american people as we predict it will which is why we need to stop it in the first place. i think bmi can people are waking up as to how far left the policies are coming out of the batted administration, how partisan they are. i think there's going to be repercussions in november either way. guy: in terms of the inflationary impact you think it is going to have, outside of childcare, can you be more specific in terms of why you think this is going to be a

negative for the of us economy? -- for the u.s. economy? rep. steil: take the child allowance and go into the text portion of this bill that continues to provide americans funds not tied to work. we have a labor crisis playing out not only in cities where i am sitting today, but across the country. we need to get workers back to work. the provisions in this building nothing get workers back to work . as we continue to see a labor shortage in the united states, we continue to see rising prices as a result. you also see stores that are closed. you can pretty much drive anywhere you want in southeast wisconsin or across the country. we have restaurants closing on certain days because they don't have workers. that is true not just in the restaurant industry. that is true across the board. so the provisions and build back better discourage workers from getting back to work, and as a result will have a big impact on rising prices. gina: it strikes me that the

market is starting to get nervous about the removal of the extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy supports that were enacted throughout 2020 and early 2021. do you see a path by which the fiscal policy makers can start to remove and normalize, rationalize spending without creating detrimental impacts on the economy? rep. steil: as chairman powell has testified before the house financial services committee, for over a year i have brought up my concerns with the mismatch between the united states fiscal and monetary policy. at a time where we are spending well beyond our means, spending trillions of dollars more than we are taking in. at the same time that is occurring, the federal reserve has been pumping in and dramatically increasing its balance sheet. that gives me great concern for the inflation we are seeing today. other people disagree with that, but i believe the monetary policy and fiscal policy we have seen for over a year is detrimental. i think it is positive that the

federal reserve is finally recognizing that the inflation is not transitory, and that we need to alter the policies coming out of washington to get prices under control. i supported powell's move that we need to taper down the balance sheet. i would like to see the balance sheet come down quicker than he will ultimately do it. he is planning to hold many of these securities until maturity. what we need to do is shift policies quickly because we continue to see rising prices, and it is clobbering everyday workers across this country in the pocketbook as we head into christmas. kailey: thank you so much for giving us some of your time this morning. that is bryan steil, representative of wisconsin. we are going somewhere, even if it is to the downside, after being relatively unchanged for a lot of the session. we are now down about 0.23%

on the s&p. how does qt actually impact this bond market when it starts to happen? stay with us on tv and radio. this bloomberg -- this is bloomberg. ♪

kailey: just about 10 tickets away from a data drop here in the u.s. we are starting to roll over bit in the futures session. in the bond market, the 10-year treasury yield basically unchanged to 1.46 86%. we are going to get more of it tomorrow, including the core pce deflator. we are getting the read on u.s. gdp, and it is higher than the survey and the prior read at 2.3%. the prior read had been 2.1%. a little bit better growth in the third quarter of the year than we previously saw. when it comes to personal consumption, that is up more than expected, two percent. economists were looking for 1.7%. when it comes to core pce, also

higher on the more inflationary read. guy: real rearview mirror stuff here in terms of what is happening in the of us economy. as you say, a little more inflation and a little bit more growth. the chief u.s. financial economist at jefferies's joining us to give her take on this. this is rearview mirror. what i am now trying to focus on and understand is what was the momentum coming into omicron. what kind of a story was the u.s. economy telling by this data, and how is omicron going to change that? at the moment, behavior is starting to shift. what do you see in terms of the story coming into now and how omicron is ultimately going to affect the data going forward? what are you seeing about the story of the moment? >> we saw incredibly strong

momentum, very strong consumer activity in general, and going into the thanksgiving weekend. we were tracking 9% gdp growth for the first quarter. they're going to lose some of that momentum. we are still going to have a very solid gdp. right now we are estimating about 7%, 7.25% both, but q1 really looks in question. businesses have responded. have seen in new york city, restaurants closing, broadway shows closing. those employees are being furloughed, but even if it is for a week, they don't have the unemployment benefits they had last summer, so even those temporary closures of businesses do represent lost sales and lost income, and i think that will be a drag on first quarter gdp.

right now our guess is that we will slow down to 1.5% in q2. guy: in prior cycles we have seen generous fiscal and monetary support. this time, less so. is the story this time that as inflationary as it was in the prior cycles, or are we going to see a continuation of what we have seen thus far, that each way turns out to be inflationary, and this will be no different? aneta: i see this wave as having more or less the same impact on demand. i still think that the inflationary impulse was exaggerated in the fourth quarter because we had a seasonal spike in demand going into the holidays, so seasonal patterns really matter. that is the really exaggerated

demand imbalance in the economy, and as we go into a signal slow down, i think some of those supply pressures will ease. certainly foreclosures -- certainly more closures are a risk, but when there are more ships floating on the pacific, as long as the u.s. ports are not impacted, i don't expect a major inflation from this. gina: let's shift a little bit and talk about the fed and what you see from the fed this year. if your base case does prove to be correct and we get some easing of supply chain concerns, is the fed path likely to be too tight or too easy? aneta: i think if they hike three times this year, that would be an appropriate pace of

tightening. i think that the fed should stick to the framework and waited till we reach maximum employment. i don't think we will necessarily be there in march, so i think just to preserve the credibility of the new framework, they should set that meeting out, and my base case is that they will hike in may. i think it is an appropriate case of tightening. where the market is may be missed pricing relative to my view is what happens after this year, and what will it take to get inflation back down to 2%. while there is a transitory component that has to do with the supply chain, when you look at labor dynamics and labor costs, they are not suggesting we are going back to 2% inflation. they suggest we will settle somewhere around 3%. at some point, and noted to get back to do percent, the fed will

have to tighten more aggressively in a way that is consistent with the framework. to me, that >> i'm glad you brought up the framework because it does seem they are backpedaling a little bit from this idea of maximum employment really playing a big part which, to me, is a pretty big shift from where they were just a year ago really leaning on the axmen employment idea use same way? are they backpedaling from this idea or are they just putting it on ice and will bring it back into next year? aneta: there is definitely backpedaling. they revise their definition of maximum employment up until the last few weeks. it was broad-based and inclusive employment. they want to see the participation rate make much more progress towards pre-pandemic levels. the racial unemployment gap.

they want to price signals to gain prices of the labor market. there is definitely been in terms of -- how far are they willing to defend or alter that definition? i think they want to see the economy or slightly below. i do think we need to get towards 4% or a little bit under in order for participants -- march is pretty iffy at this point given the impact from omicron. taylor: so often when we talk about the mysteries of the labor market and the lack of the recovery in participation the

conversation comes back to childcare and working parents who need to stay at home. that brings me to the fiscal part of this equation, it is the build back better in the child tax credit, some of the family leave policies. if that does not come to fruition, how does that impact your forecast for the u.s. economy? aneta: i think we are in a chronic labor shortage not going away. the fiscal stimulus created so much demand for product and services which is created this appetite for labor we will not be able to meet. there are about 4 million more before the pandemic in my assessment on the cost of labor supply is it is about 3 million at most. there is going to be an unmet labor demand that will continue

to put upward pressure on wages. the provision in bbb that encourage women to go back to work would've been very helpful, although i do not think necessarily they would go into effect very quickly. these are long-term programs that take some time to set up. i do not think they would help relieve the pressure in labor supply we are seeing this year or even in 2022, but certainly would be helpful longer-term. kailey: thank you so much for joining us. in addition to the data we just got when it comes to gdp consumption, we will get more economic data in the u.s. at 10:00 eastern. in that there will be consumer confidence. our team at bloomberg economics is pointing out you did not want to look at the headlines come you want to look at labor market expectations, how defensive is around the job market and the inflation expectations. guy: that is the key thing i go

to. alix steel and i race to talk about that number when it comes out. what is the consumer seeing on the inflation front? it is ok in terms of predicting the inflation narrative going forward. normally this is about gas station prices and the visible sticker we see in terms of how we understand the inflation narrative developing. the consumer has been growing more concerned about inflation, and that concern is as important as what the inflation number is. the consumer sees inflation coming that has a meaningful impact on behavior. the other thing i want to talk about is what is happening with the 50-year-olds. you talk about the younger age group at the working mothers. the 50-year-olds have left of labor in huge waves. one of the reason for that is financial markets have allowed them to do so. the narrative changes, maybe they come back. kailey: if your 401(k) is doing well, maybe you can retire

early. we also have to have a conversation about shifting behavior in light of the virus. sometimes it is forced on you. the buffalo bills announced they will require proof of vaccination to be able to enter the stadium. that is already status quo in new york. you want to show your id and your vaccine card. the question will be what requires full vaccination. it is not me two shots in your booster. the bills doing quite well this season. 8-6 an interesting post season when it comes to the nfl playoffs. i know that is not your kind of football, but it is my kind of football. i had to get it in. coming up, brian kelly will be joining us. on tv and radio. this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden will

host a meeting at the white house later this morning to discuss global supply chain bottlenecks and the covid-19 pandemic. the white house as members of the president's team will be on hand, as well as participants from the private sector, including the ceo of fedex and cap. if you contract the omicron variant you find your 80% less likely to be hospitalized compared with the other strains of the virus will stop the research in south africa found once patients are admitted to the hospital, the risk of severe disease did not differ from other variants. the research also shows those with omicron may have harrier -- may have higher viral road. broad recovery in the south america region helped with -- southeast asia continues to populate the bottom of the ranking as the region lags in vaccination and reopening. in december vietnam took place -- took over last place from the philippines. xi jinping told hong kong leader carrie lam the city is

developing in a good direction, that is days after an election installed a legislature of beijing loyalists in the financial hub. during a meeting in beijing president xi told carrie lam he recognizes her government. questions have been rising on whether carrie lam will seek a second five-year term next year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we do not think today there is enough evidence to justify

any tougher measures before christmas. we continue to monitor omicron very closely and if the situation deteriorates will be ready to take action if needed. kailey: that was boris johnson. we are all monitoring the omicron situation very carefully and we continue to watch each and every headline as a relates to the virus. in the process of doing so i made a slight mistake and thank you to the viewer who pointed this out to make. the buffalo bills vaccine policy where you have to show proof of vaccine was already existing, they have announced an expansion of that from ages five to 11. now the children are able to get the shot they need to do so to watch the bills play. we will see if their support to bring the bills into a good playoff picture. we also need to talk about travel and how that may be looking different this holiday season. brian kelly, founder of the points guide, joins us. has demand been sapped

substantially this holiday season? brian: it has not. we've been clocking over 2 million passengers a day through tsa. international travel is still highly depressed, especially to asia. we had high hopes japan was going to open up for tourism. all of their have been extended. domestic travel is still strong. yesterday we had the same amount of tsa passengers screened as two years ago pre-pandemic. guy: do you think that might change over the next few days? we are starting to see reports that becomes of the transmissibility of omicron and that number being higher than delta and previous variants, even on a plane which has medical grade air filtration you are significantly more at risk, particularly in coach? brian: i did see that report today on bloomberg.

i think there still needs to be more data. i have always recommended, use those frequent flyer miles for business class. some airlines during the pandemic labview to take your mask off if you are flying business. -- allowed you to take your mask off if you're flying business. use those points and upgrade. i think there is fatigue amongst travelers. people are still waiting to see, omicron is more transmissible, but if you're traveling what is the actual threat? people are not afraid of going to the hospital with covid but getting stuck abroad. in those costs and go to a government quarantine facility. as long as there is still a cloud of uncertainty, we are not going to see that rebound in travel. the airlines have added tons of the routes for summer 2022. michael: let's talk -- guy:

let's talk about 2022. i've been surprised how well the airline stocks have hung up -- has helped -- airline stocks have held up. the expectation is there will be a huge rebound in demand for the summer. my question to you is when will we know how strong that rebound is? anecdotally, and i see it in the data when i talked to the airlines, they have real-time models giving us this information, people are booking super close to the point of departure. when are we going to start understanding what summer bookings look like? brian: it is going to be until the spring. i think this will be a dark winter in terms of uncertainty. as we see covid pills will be coming out that will hopefully cut the impact of covid infections and take down that 10 day quarantine window, which is a big obstacle to most travelers. they cannot afford to extend the trip by 10 days.

there are a lot of breakthroughs that will happen. we will learn more about this virus and how much protection the vaccines and boosters give us. i did not anticipate until an april timeframe, but the airlines are bullish. delta turned a profit with almost a fraction of their international travel. barring any falls, i do think summer 2022 will be the year people get back out there, take just a week long trips and spend that cash they've been stockpiling. gina: i would like to talk a little bit about how the travel companies are utilizing points and loyalty programs to try to incentivize travel and activity. what are some of the more creative changes you have seen to points programs over the last couple of years and are they starting to work? brian: the airlines survived this huge downturn by selling and mortgaging their loyalty programs for cheap cash.

they have done that in the past. these loyalty programs in many cases are worth more than the planes themselves. they are lines have been very flexible. it is even more flexible to use your points to book a trip. you can cancel them get them all back in those cases. the airlines tried to do that with paid tickets, but if you book basic economy you would get a voucher you may not be able to use that might inspire some points. they have actually become more valuable because they give extra flexibility. we see most of the airlines extend elite status for a second year so as to not disenfranchise excess business travelers who used to bring them tons of cash and probably will again. they did not want to completely say no to them and drop into the lowest levels. there been lots of promotions, whether for people who are not

traveling to go shopping online. i do not think the day of points and miles being valuable are over any time soon. kailey: i am looking at a ski trip out west in a couple months and i checked flights every day and they are so expensive, thank god for points because i do not the code be able to afford it otherwise. when should we expect prices to go down? brian: it depends on supply in the market. you can still get cheap international deals. business flights to europe used to cost $7,000. you can easily find $1500 round-trip business to europe. kailey: on that note, i know tom keene is watching, where should he buy his ticket next, what is cheap? brian: europe is cheap and europe next summer, not even though summer. i love europe in april and may or september and october.

it depends i recommend people wait because unless you like the process of planning a trip, which i believe is good for mental health, even just having something booked, things have changed so rapidly that when you are buying tickets i would wait to see what the situation is 90 days out from your trip. kailey: i hope tom keene heard that. not just waiting for an entry point into the market, entry point into the travel space. thanks a much to brian kelly, the points guy. gina martin adams has helped us fill in all week. thank you so much for joining us on this week. what is your number one take away from the past couple of days? gina: i think it is that everyone remains generally pretty optimistic. we have had a few bears, but most people are pretty optimistic about the year ahead. definitely balancing strong growth with inflation pressures.

i get a sense of optimism from many of our guests. kailey: thank you so much. guy and i will be here tomorrow and guide will be coming up on bloomberg markets. futures negative about point -- about negative point when he 5% on the s&p 500 -- -.25% on the s&p 500. this is bloomberg. ♪

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alix: from new york city, i am alix steel in for jonathan ferro. futures trading heavy. volume disappears. "the countdown to the open"

starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ alix: we begin with the big issue. a new test for markets. >> year end liquidity is pretty terrible. >> the s&p has more volatility. >> virus fears and short-term economic concerns are perking up. >> the omicron variant and future variations. >> here we are in 2000 21 dealing with the virus named after 2019. >> there is so much uncertainty. >> the bigger question is what regime are we going into next year? >>