decrease a little bit on the year-over-year number. >> you will see potential for real diversions in monetary policy. >> the early part of the cycle where we see rapid growth is behind us. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom king, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: will 69 become 70? for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside kailey leinz and matt miller. i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up by .1%, another all-time high. kailey at the close yesterday. kailey: 60 this year, will we make it 70 today echo we are dancing around -- today echo we are dancing -- today? we are dancing around the 40 degree yard. how far we have come and how far above or rethought where we would be. jon: do know with a high

estimate yesterday was going back 12 months? goldman at 4400. that was the high. you remember people said 4400 is ridiculous? what were we, 35, 3600, something like that, felt like way out there. do you think there is a similar attitude toward the forecast coming for 12 months now. -- now? kailey: there is why diversity in the area still. was interesting is i was talking to eddie vendor bell earlier, he says there is so much uncertainty going into 2021 and a lot of that has cleared up 2021 into 2022 so we have a better understanding of what happens to us although that has not formed into any consensus. jon: i think over the last 24 hours, we have taken a baby step toward normalcy. the cdc saying you don't have to isolate for 10 days, you have to isolate for five, isn't that a

small step to treating this like your regular seasonal virus? matt: absolutely. still recommending you wait until your symptom-free and you continue to wear a mask -- you are symptom-free and you continue to wear a mask after but it gets workers may be the ability to get back to work at banks, apple stores if they are open, at a much faster rate. maybe we had closer and closer -- remember when bill gates forecasted it would become the flu in 2022? we are getting close. jon: goldman sachs saying if you want to come back in february, get boosted. kailey: if you are eligible to get boosted by february 1, that is what you have to do. goldman testing twice a week but they are bringing people back to the office. unlike other banks like wells fargo have indefinitely postponed the return. people are sticking to the coming back except tighter instructions. jon: get back to the office

becomes february. let's hope we are not talking about march and april and so on. in the equity markets, good morning to you all. a lift in this month's stock market again, up .25 percent on the s&p 500. on the nasdaq 100, about 82 on the nasdaq 100. about .5%. yields coming in at half a basis points. your bond market not doing much at all. kailey: not going anywhere and not where we thought we would be at the end of the use year -- of this year. we will talk about all things research coming up at 7:00 a.m. eastern and they see us going out to 5200. where does the 400 points of upside coming from? why are those that morgan stanley wrong on that idea? we will continue that conversation with patrick armstrong, interested in buying into volatility.

then we talk with an economist over a green capital. it is not just were monetary policy goes, it is who will fit into the vacancies? we do not have the picks from the biden administration. speaking of geopolitical situations, we will have all things covered on radio. jon: i'm looking forward to catching up to wendy schiller. in the last 24 hours, the fed saying there is no federal solution, taking real heat from conservatives from those remarks. matt: i saw that headline while we are live on air yesterday when he was speaking, listening to him for a while, and it is interesting. you made the important point i think yesterday that there have not been any governments that have nailed this on a federal level or more local level. the u.k. has had its issues, germany had its issues, the periphery of europe was in flames with covid cases at the

star and is climbing back up. in terms of a federal solution, maybe something think you want to strive for but it does not look like anyone has found one. jon: i think the president acknowledging there is work to do on testing. hopefully you -- hopefully we get improvement on the quickly. let's talk about this bond market. jim karen joins us now from morgan stanley investment marriage. -- investment management. you picked up on this pivot from the federal reserve is unanimous. how important is that? jim: thank you all for having me on the show. i think it is quite important. when was the last time the fed was unanimous? it was basically when there was more of a pandemic crisis going through. now they are unanimous in a sense we will -- they will hike interest rates and almost at a preset path to hike by 200 basis points by 2024. what that does is reduce volatility and provide certainty.

what matters in interest rates and bond investors is the pace of rate moves. in this case, higher. what that allows you to do is protect your cost of capital into the future if you are an equity investor or business owner or something of that nature. effectively, this is something i think lowers some of the volatility, at least of the interest-rate part of the equation going forward. the most important thing about being unanimous is there were no hawks lurking in dark shadowy corners that will jump out and surprise the market and become more hawkish unless the data becomes -- unless the data really shows that. this is something that will be helpful to the markets going forward and we will have to see how this unfolds ahead. kailey: and it is not just about when the fed licks off, it is about what the hiking cycle will look like in high how -- how high that rate goes. do you think the market has a understanding of what that rate will be?

jim: the market really doesn't. i know it is priced by the market and one of the things people look at our these five-year forward overnight index swaps. this is a market pricing of the fed funds rate. that is 1.5%. the fed says their terminal value is 2.5 percent, meaning that is when the fed will end hiking interest rate in this cycle. there is about a 100 basis point disconnect based on market pricing versus what the fed is saying. what i also think is important is even in the fed -- even in their own productions, they say by 2024, the feds fund rate will go to two and 1/8 percent. so if we look at the nominal funds rate and inflation at that rate, that means the real fed funds rate will be zero or neutral. so even though the fed is increasing interest rates now, they are not tightening, they

are moving towards neutral. that is something else showing a lot of combination for markets, even still. so people clamoring for a tightening, they are not getting it. they may get that in the form of tapering and potentially balance sheet runoff. the balance she will continue to grow until $9 trillion at the fed until the end of march or somewhere around the time. then it will start to come down. i think that is the bigger issue going forward. matt: you focused on fixed income on the global fixed income team and clearly monetary policy is incredibly important there as it is on the equity side but not as important everywhere as the fiscal has been. what do you think about the gridlock we are seeing -- i guess if you could call it gridlock -- in washington, the lack of a bill back better passage and the pessimism there. jim: i think this is somewhat

being misread by the markets. one of the things that gets criticized is without the passage of bill back better, gdp will be lower and many people have taken down their forecast. that is because government spending is part of gdp. that is math. think about it in other ways. if the government spent a lot of money and went into jet -- and into deficit, the gdp could go higher because of government spending. eventually you end up getting higher levels of expected inflation, which means your quality of growth, your real growth, nominal growth minus inflation or inflation expectations, with a smaller fiscal package that might have a bigger fiscal multiplier, might do better. so effectively the fact that we may get a lower amount of gdp, but higher quality gdp due to some of this gridlock in washington, means you get higher quality profit margins and higher quality earnings going forward. i do not think this is being

missed by the equity markets are by credit markets because it also means default risk can stay relatively low as well. i think there is a consequence of information that is out there, and i think it is very complex and we really look through it. it is not just about build back better and creating higher fiscal spending creating higher gdp. we also have to note the cbo studies show this is a $3.5 trillion spend and the studies that show it is a $4.5 trillion spend, which is really big deficit spending and markets tend to not like that over time. jon: wonderful to catch up to you. is it too late to say merry christmas? jim: merry christmas. jon: good to see you, buddy. a whole lot more. moving forward from here, i thought it was the least surprising surprise from washington dc all year, that this broke apart and senator manchin was at the epicenter. if the fallout after the

interview with fox news sunday, a week before christmas, what was that about? what was the surprise? matt: i reviewed -- i agree it was not a huge surprise but i think many people were hopeful and optimistic. for some parts of the plan. it depends on where you are regionally. outside of new york and new jersey and california, people don't care about a lift on the kappa but in the tri-state area, it is pretty key. even if you were not optimistic you had to be hopeful. jon: for a long time, i know things get personal with him quickly. it has nothing to do with the move. kailey: nothing at all. that's not coming to the tri-state area. jon: he's not buying a house. [laughter] your equity market up advancing .25%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: wit the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.

a new study says being infected with the omicron variant can strengthen against the delta strain. this comes from research and south africa where omicron was first detected in south africa -- in south africa where omicron was first detected. u.s. health officials are shortening the recommended isolation time for people with covid who are no longer experiencing symptoms. the new period is five days, half of what it was. the cdc says that people with covid should wear a mask for another five days when around other people. goldman sachs is standing by its office return plan despite surging covid infection rate in new york. the firm will make vaccination booster shots compulsory. anyone entering offices must get a booster by february the first if they're eligible for the stock -- the shot by that date. cancellations disrupted u.s.

travel and continued into the work week. 2400 new flights after 2000 were dropped over the weekend. winter storms added more pressure to airlines already shortstaffed because of spreading covid cases. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: we are now able to

purchase 500 at home rapid tests to be sent to the american people for free and we will continue to use mass production act to get as many tests as possible. starting in two weeks, private insurance will reimburse you for the cost of at-home test but we have to do more, we have to do better. and we will. jon: the president of the united states there. good morning with kailey leinz and matt miller, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive 12 to 13 points on the s&p 500, advancing .25%. all-time high on the close yesterday, number 69, approaching 70 later. in the bond market, 148.07. shout out to the analysts who have been made to work this week. maybe a suggestion for the kids at goldman the next time they at that deck together, add in a slide closer to markets the week after christmas. they might get what they want next year too. kailey: they got what they

wanted this year to a large extent. notches goldman, you see thanks upping the starting salaries. goldman inspired real change on wall street. jon: they are still working this morning i guarantee it. with an equity market and all-time highs, trouble in d.c. with the president of the united states and joining us is wendy schiller. let's start there. the president and the last one he for hours saying there is no federal solutions and in many ways that stays the obvious. but you think he has lost control of the messaging in a way he thought he would have control over it when he ran to become president of the united states? >> in some ways, he is back where he started when he first was dealing with a lot of holiday surging on covid and the vast majority of americans were not yet vaccinated. they were told let's get vaccinated and things will go back to normal or as normal as possible and the vast majority of americans did get vaccinated,

and many millions have not done it, but nonetheless, mother nature is a powerful force and to your we are a year later and it feels like deja vu. i think that is a really big problem for the biden administration which has been doing a lot of things successfully, just on the wrong messaging with the failure of bill back better. build back better is about more government and when voters look at government, they think you are failing us with covid, failing us with testing, failing us on care. why would we give you an opportunity to do more when it looks like you can do what you are supposed to do now? kailey: the president yesterday said there is no federal solution, getting stalled at a state level. is that the president trying to shuck the blame away from himself or is this a president who is not adequately responding to a national challenge? >> i think when we are in crisis, we still want to hear blame on somebody else. even if there are realities where you have like the governor of florida actively trying to

prevent mask mandates, prevent vaccine requirements in private businesses, penalize people for trying to take safety measures, he is popular in florida but that does not help. the problem is that is not just -- it is one state out of 50 and then blaming the person who is not getting vaccinated, that causes more divisions. i think it makes communication and messaging to those people harder. i think the issue will be public health. does the government have the right to do what they have to do or president biden demand dating -- mandating vaccines. we are about to find out if the supreme court allows the government to tell larger businesses what to do. this will be a big issue and will be a turning point in the 21st century for all of america. will we make the sacrifices, will we allow the government to issue these mandates and it is not clear that will happen yet. kailey: we will see how those arguments go when the supreme

court hears them into weeks time. do you think of a 19 is the president's biggest political headache or is it something else? wendy: i think it is twofold, covid-19, obviously existing polarization in the country that he inherited, and it is still the fractures in his own party. if he can come out of the gate, the state of the union will give out covid, it will not be about what we can do next. he's got to lineup the democrats and i think 23 announced they are retiring so he is looking at a loss majority probably for 2022 and beyond. he's gotta figure out a simple thing he wants to get from his own majority party. they've got a figure that out too, another headache. things like making life easier for people who struggled during covid like childcare for example, that is likely to be popular among voters coming out of a very difficult situation and stressful situation with the pandemic.

think small, targeted, what you can accomplish to get that done. jon: we talked to mohammed yesterday from gallup and he pointed out the president's approval rating has been low since the fall of kabul and have not changed much since then. in the meantime, we have seen inflation ramp-up. his critics blame that on president biden. how important is the resurgence of inflation and what can the president do about it? wendy: it all goes to the same sense of misery on the part of the average citizen. you go to the shell and can't find -- shelf and find things you can't find. it is hard to get a used car, a dishwasher, things americans are used to getting easily. it is all about we can't even live the lives we want to live and inflation is part of that. it is all going to the fact that things are out of control and

the government can't get them back into control and inflation has become another thing feeling this sense of europe's ration -- sense of frustration. jon: this is perfect. i want to finish it with you. there's something about the attitude of the administration where they missed the moment. i remember when the press secretary was asked about home testing and why can't we do what the u.k. does, which is send a message and you get something the following morning, and she said what would you like it to do, send one to every american? that is what they're going to try to do now. do you think you need to adjust a little bit and have lust of the attitude and start listening? wendy: police they have to be appearing to be listening. that can go a long time on the political malpractice various politicians were in. president will have to step up. biden -- obama did that later into his term and you have to shake it up. if those staff you have are not

working well and you have issues, you have to make a change. you have to get people better attuned to this and who can pivot not only under the president but the president himself to focus on the things people are caring about in their daily lives and with this policy are covid and make that the only message you are conveying the next three to six months. jon: thank you as always, wendy schiller, looking forward to catching up soon. i can think of several occasions where the president and this white house has been let down by several individuals, including the messaging on the gas situation, oil situation in america. i can think of several more. that needs to be that adjustment or maybe a shakeup on that front. matt: absolutely. i can think of a few where it seems like some members of his cabinet did not really understand the policy for which they were responsible. but you can think of these

examples in every administration. we have to say they have a very difficult job. it is not exactly the easiest climate in which to operate in. jon: without a doubt. your equity market positive .3% from new york city. this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: we're just short of 40 and hundred on the s&p 500 at the close yesterday. another all-time high on the s&p for 2021. we have had 69 and pushing 79. kailey and i were talking early minutes ago, 12 months ago the highest estimate on the screen was 4400 on the s&p from goldman and many people written for it. look at where we are now, closing out close to 4800 on the s&p. users 13, advancing .3%. on the nasdaq, more on big tech in a moment, up .5% on the s&p. that is the equity situation and let's talk about bond market. the negative feedback loop that is talked about, on why may be the move higher on a 10 year is 2%, if there call. 148, yields higher by one basis

point. bank of america saying we may be limited with how much higher we can push 10 year yields because he says ultimately that will hit risk assets and you have this negative feedback loop and captures a move higher on a tenure. we can touch on that this morning. i want to finish on this, equity market, a single name. we can talk about goldman. apple, 1.82.6. we are up about .4%. when you get to 182 point six, that is your market cap. kailey: it's unbelievable we are not talking about treat -- $3 trillion where five minutes ago it seems like we were talking about $2 trillion and $1 trillion. the velocity this company has added to its companies amazing. it is not just a massive milestone but $3 trillion companies are a reality. jon: i like the round number. kailey: like the dow.

jon: we don't talk about the dow. [laughter] the speed at which we have gotten there has been so impressive. it felt like yesterday, we have been talking about $1 trillion and all of a sudden we are talking about $3 trillion. an equity that makes up much, 7% of the equity 500 -- s&p 500? matt: and i think a stunts figure. the importance of apple on the index is, you have to put it into perspective. historically, it is still not as big as like the dutch east india trading company, which had its own army. so apple still has a ways to go i think before it becomes like nationstate big. jon: i miss tom too, that is the most tom keene thing you have said all year. apple is positive .4% in the free market. kailey: a huge weight in this equity market. let's bring in the ceo and cio at wynn crest capital. you talk about the outlook for

u.s. stocks and how much of a very tech has on that. to bet against the u.s., do you have to bet against companies like apple? >> no. i think you just have to know there are better -- is better relative value elsewhere. looking at the s&p, this value has been concentrated. the joe, is there new towns, which, the company's other all-time highs, are far less interesting than the ones at the 52 we close. i would add to that, the u.s. has done so well but that means other places have done less well and to me there is more opportunity there. i prefer europe and some of asia and i think there are better opportunities there if you just want index-type performance. kailey: let's talk about the

differences regionally and how central bank policy had to bearing. the fed is moving toward a hawkish stance and the ecp not so much. even china is moving toward easier policy. how does that inform your thinking about regional performance outpacing? >> if you can accept a lower cost of capital increase, you have to accept an increase higher as well. i think you have to be vigilant about where you are investing. i think you one companies that are not predicated on free money. this is what the fed did, they just told you the game is over. so that means the winner take all tech platforms of the last decade, those are the place to be. i do not think that is the place to be going forward. i think you need a different playbook. matt: how much further can animal spirits take us to call

back to tom keene here? you can forecast earnings growth and forecast dividend payouts, but you cannot forecast how much the market is willing to pay, right? last year we were able to pay 30 times earnings at the end of the year. this year, at 4000, we are only able to pay 26-times earnings. is that willing to come down? barbara: last year, we were taking that in sales, not earnings. i think going forward, mass matters and people would be far more focused on cash flow and asset value because masks -- mass works. if the market is not pricing something accordingly, private equity will. that is where i feel safe, where you have the margin of safety, which is always mass and not send -- not sentiment. matt: bleeding into that, we have the incredible sloshing of liquidity. especially when you bring up pe,

i think of the 2 -- $2 trillion something number that people throw around every year. we see massive bids, even at under $50,000 for coin is worth under $50,000. you see bids for companies that are never going to make any money on wall street bets. isn't this liquidity assessing the market and as it drains out, will that change the picture and paint the equation? barbara ann: absolutely. i think what we have is we have a bubble of speculation. draining liquidity drains that bubble and that is not a bad thing. the world i grew up in, traditional metrics based on cash flow, are what will matter more then when you have a rising tide that lifts all boats. to me, this is far more interesting and more rules-based. kailey: and the reason the

liquidity tap is turning off is because the fed feels held to do something about inflation. you are saying this is not transitory. do you think we have seen the worst of it or is it poised to get worse than it is? barbara ann: potentially, we have seen the worst of it because now we are laughing -- lapping higher year on your numbers. i have seen a lot of value arguments for disinflation and inflation but i am in the camp that we will see higher inflation then we have seen in the past for several years to come and even decades. there are a lot of underappreciated factors influencing inflation right now. if you just start with -- one of the key under paintings -- underpinnings is china will become a disinflationary force it has been the last 25 years and i do not think it will. if you look at apple where they heard on sales, it was because of energy and water crises in china, curtailing production. china is becoming a little more nationalistic with their

resources and that impacts global ability to outsource to them. you look at the wealth distribution cycle and we are now in and we have higher taxes and will have higher social spending, higher wages, all of that is inflationary. biden has told you he will spend $4 trillion over the next 10 years and that is inflationary. you look at the energy transition, that takes investment and not divestment. that is inflationary. looking at the crunch, what will follow it is higher wages. what will suffer is your truck drivers and retail and that is sticky. looking at demographics, aging populations means we need labor redirected toward old people at the very time our labor is contracting. all of these things are sticky and not going anywhere. and not easy to resolve. the last one is the crisis of fossil fuel. this is perhaps the most underappreciated one because what is not factored in by a lot

of governments but starting to is the cost of the negative externality. you look at countries like canada or states like california and they are starting to put in carbon taxes. when you change the price of energy, you change natures discount rate and change the cost of manufacturing everything. so these are things that -- when you look at inflation, you have to look at it holistic lee. yes there are some things that are disinflationary but on balance, i think the average cost of living is going up for the reasons i say this. jon: that final comment was important and i look forward to talk to you about it more. barbara ann bernard on the situation on this market and looking ahead to inflation next year. the economists we track here, four point 4% is the headline cpr. you have i -- you and i have been talking about to let down the president of the united states. someone wrote in almost instantly on the bloomberg terminal and said "say the federal reserve." the federal reserve. matt miller, how they let down

this administration too? matt: i thought it was very interesting. i won't say whether they have let down the administration but in terms of the factual timeline, you did not get the hawkish pivot from jerome powell until after he was confirmed. i'm not sure if that is because of what the market expects from the federal reserve or what his political base expects from president biden. he could not really confirm how -- confirm powell as a hawk. there was so much pressure to get him out and put brainerd in because his constituency wanted a more dovish of the federal reserve. as soon as he was confirmed, you had that pivoted right away. jon: at the very end of the news conference, chair powell was asked about the piven and what was behind and wasn't linked to the fact he got a second term. kailey: it was an exact timeline

of the data point -- data points he was seeing. he said there were a lot of things that built up to it, trying to put aside the notion. it strikes me when talking about nominations we still have empty seats that the biden administration has not said who they want to fill them. a lot of the progressives did not one powell to have a second term, they wanted someone like brainerd. you get a progressive in that role and what does that mean for the banks? jon: someone that might make senator warren happy. what do you make of the potential for that later on this week? matt: i think it will be interesting, the effect it has, on inflation. i think this is one of the biggest problems the biden administration faces. jon: futures up 11. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ mberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the world passed a grim

milestone, coronavirus cases at a daily record monday. more than 1.4 million infections happening a year after vaccines started rolling out and two years after the virus emerged. the seven day rolling average of cases was 841,000, up from 49% from a month ago. that was when the controlled virus -- the coronavirus train was discovered. despite the rapid spread of the omicron variant, the health secretary urged people to be careful, especially in new year's celebrations, and said the government will not hesitate to active necessary. the coronavirus surge prompted apple to close its major new york city stores to shoppers. this move comes at 16 locations and it will let customers place orders online and pick them up at the stores. in new york, the jury in guillain maxwells trial will again a fifth day of deliberations. the judge said starting today,

the jurors will have to stay an hour later as they reach a verdict. maxwell is accused of luring underage girls to be abused by jeffrey epstein. tensions between the u.s. and china are rising on a new frontier. in space, beijing complained to the united nations about elon musk's satellite. two of those satellites came close to chinese base stations, forcing astronauts on board to take evasive action. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> one of the challenges in the u.s. are sequencing -- our

sequencing was delayed. while we made gains in that space since the pandemic began, we have sort of gotten complacent. we had stopped sequencing everything to understand when the new variants came out. we are catching up on the data. jon: that was the associate professor at the university of nebraska medical center. from new york city, good morning with kailey leinz and matt miller, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up .1%, another all-time high yesterday and set for more of the same this morning. yields higher by a single basis points. we are light on the data, light on the price action too. euro-dollar 1.1332. unchanged, positive by 0.4%. an adjustment of the isolation period down from 10 days to five days if you are no longer experiencing systems -- symptoms. let's bring in the senior scholar of the john hopkins center.

let's start here, this is so important. have we taken a big step toward normalizing how we treat this virus from getting back to normal? >> i do think the cdc revised guidance based on science and what we learned about the virus does give us some sense of normalcy. what we are seeing is this is a less disruptive event to get covid-19. one is mild, one symptoms have evaded, and we are making the isolation period something people can easily cope with and doing it in a safe manner. it is important to remember this one-size-fits-all 10 days did not apply to everybody because many people were becoming not contagious earlier in that time period. i think this is more precision and something people will find much easier to cope with when they do get the mild breakthrough infections that will become ubiquitous. kailey: dr. adalja, to understand you have a positive case and to isolate you need to have a test in some cases stop

isolation and return to your office. yet testing does not seem to be easily accessible. how does that problem go solve? >> this is going to take a concerted effort by the federal government to incentivize companies and make it easier to get tests on the market. we have only had a handful passing through the regulation process. $25 for two tests is out of most people's reach and this is the result of the fact that tests have always been undervalued, that we never had a robust testing program in place during the trump administration, start of the biden administration, but it has been flawed and not really optimized. this is going to be the key part of how we move through this pandemic. as people want to be able to navigate a life with covid-19 as being an ever present issue they deal with, they need these tests. i think we cannot wait until the federal government solve this problem over time. it has to be done now.

europe has done this well but in the u.s., it is something not prioritized. more people assume more people will be vaccinated and we are stuck in this limbo. kailey: have we learned we cannot vaccinate our way out of this? that you need more than one weapon in this war? or are we still putting too much emphasis on that in particular? >> the vaccines are the best to we have by far because they remove the ability of the virus to cause serious disease, hospitalization, and death. that has to be the key to our response but not everybody will be vaccinated and tests are one-way, especially with a contagious variant like omicron, you can get around vaccine-induced protection. tests are going to be equally important because people need to know their status and many organizations do not want to have any tolerance of cases in their workplace for example or at their event. this is something that needs to be done for the country to move forward. even if all of these cases are mild, there is not a risk

tolerance to have these cases and you have hospitalizations under stress from delta patients and omicron patients. that will be the key thing. until we get to that point where this is treated like another respiratory virus, tests will be something people want to do frequently and it is still a major mess. matt: how soon until we get there? you mentioned you expect this to become the breakthrough mild cases to become ubiquitous, meaning pretty much everyone is going to get it. it seems like, with 1.4 billion new cases yesterday, that will be fairly soon. we are not fighting the spanish flu anymore, even though we still get the spanish flu, and it is one of the biggest killers . it is just so common. is that what this will become? >> yes. this is going to go the way of the other four coronaviruses that cost 25% of our common colds. this will be something everybody gets and they will probably get

it multiple times but it will be a chain reversion because our immune systems will be trained to respond with vaccines and prior inspections. and also rapid tests so people can know what their status is and not infect others. we will probably get away from these public health recommendations -- regulations and more toward an individual-based way of dealing with this. the problem is we still have hospitals in the united states and around the world where there are still issues with capacity. that is the key pivot point for me is when we remove the ability of covid-19 to cause hospital capacity concerns. that is the case in many parts of the country but there are still areas, specific regions, with low vaccination rates where there is still at risk -- where there are still risks of people needing hospitalization. that is where we fully and the disease, when we do not see hospitals rapport over 100% capacity in the icu for multiple

days, for example. matt: when we get there? have we had that in the past with flu seasons that were really bad? some hospitals get overcrowded? do we end up next christmas in a situation the likes of which we with cn bad flu seasons 10 to 20 years ago? >> hopefully that will be the case. right now it is worse than influenza season, worst of our influenza seasons, and in many parts of the country, that has to be what changes. probably by next winter a year from now, we should be at that stage in the united states and many developed countries that this becomes handled more like influenza but i think it will have a bigger influence for some time because of the attack rate and how many people get infected. it seems on a pound for pound basis to be worse than seasonal influenza when it comes to mortality but that will adapt over time. the new to very will change that prediction and might move faster or slower but i think we are looking at next flu season being

probably closer to our baseline but probably a little more intense than usual. hopefully manageable. jon: thank you for all you do. i know you are busy over the christmas weekend as well. we appreciate everything you have done and for us. we will catch up with you. hopefully we are taking the steps to treating this like we treat everything else. matt: absolutely. the interesting thing is, for me, how political will the shots remain? previously, people got flu vaccines without making it a trump versus biden, democrat versus republican thing but it seems so ideological that people opposed to vaccines are not opposed on scientific health reasons but really on political reasons. jon: it is a bizarre couple years.

matt miller, kailey leinz, jonathan ferro, your equity advancing .2%. the president of research why -- from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

♪ >> we could end up with a good year, not a great year in 2022. >> you are underestimating the fed's ability to tighten. >> it will start to decrease of the year-over-year number. >> you will seek real divergence in monetary policy. >> we see the rapid growth behind us. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with john keane, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live alongside kailey leinz and matt miller. i am jonathan ferro. kailey, let's start with the cdc decision. a sigh of relief as the covid quarantine gets cut from 10 to 5 . kailey: