>> the fed has probably overstated its welcome on qe by about six months. >> there is some limitation and what the fed can do given a lot of the inflation pressures. >> once they do that rate hike in march, maybe that is the end of the dollar strength. >> they are moving towards neutral. >> monetary policy stays in the middle. that is great for markets, great for the investor class. it is great for the country. what we don't want is shocks. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- what we don't want is shocks. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene,

jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: two more trading days to go. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. your equity market up six on the s&p, advancing a little more than 0.1%. we've had 70. will we get 72? kailey: it looks entirely possible. in 1995, it was 77 back then. still, this is the greatest number of highs we have seen since then. the market dancing around 4400 at the moment. we have blown out expectations. jonathan: this any will performance not just this year, the year before that, the year before that, has been absolutely phenomenal. 2020, up 16%. this year, up almost 28%. matt: and i believe you are rounding down as well because

wasn't last year 16.6%? it has been unbelievable, and the question is can it continue. there are bulls out there who say yes, but it is hard to fathom. even if we have tremendous growth next year, haven't investors already priced that in, and that is part of why we are seeing such big gains? on the other hand, you have those who say prepare for a decade of lower returns. jonathan: we have been talking about it over the last week or so. if we all think about our own respective surprises of the year, for me and many others, even if you nailed the market call or the economic call, you might not have got the market call right. the bond market has been fascinating in that respect, with inflation close to 7%. kailey: there has been a massive disconnect between the economy and what is going on on the

policy front and the market. that has been the case really for some time. we were talking about the gains we signed 2020. that was well before even vaccines. we saw this incredible rally off the bottom. i believe it was the quickest return into able market we have seen on record. there is some extent of animal spirits here, regardless of what is going on with the economy. jonathan: nasdaq futures up 29, advancing 0.2%. into the bond market, yields lower. we are negative three basis points on the day to 1.52 38 -- 1.5238 percent. euro-dollar not doing much, 1.135%. joining us now, steve wi eting, chief strategist at citi global wealth management.

the rapid growth rates of truly innovative companies should be rewarded handsomely. your thoughts on that quote. steve: i think we are going to have some growth fears, which we should when we have faced a real threat, which is inflation. but i think it will come down, and if it does, it is likely to help the expansion be sustained. it will be at a slower pace. we will not see a repeat of what we had in the last few years. the covid stock itself was extremely narrative and severe. it was destined to get us. a powerful return in markets. it has been consistent with record high corporate profits for large firms, so therefore share prices did what they did. when we look going forward, it is going to be a different environment. it is going to be an environment

where we are trying to restrain all of the stimulus. consequently, i think equity returns will slow as well. the question will be, will elevate of companies be rewarded -- will innovative companies be rewarded? probably most importantly, will we see investors focus in on generating income in portfolios? that means some of the more higher-quality staple companies will not take out the innovation portfolios, but definitely put in a little bit of caution in equity portfolios. kailey: how do you define quality? steven: this would be earnings stability, dividend growth, consistent income flows. the firm's again that are not necessarily taking moon shots, but have very steady cash flows that they pay out to investors and a higher premium return the bond market yields. matt: so not a lot of growth, or

do you think you can get quality growth as well? steven: i don't really think growth and value metrics have been really good ways to drive portfolios. we really need to look at cyclicals and defensives. after many of the cyclical shares have outperformed by double digits, we think we are at peak cyclical momentum. we are actually passing it, with factory orders, for example, near the highest level we have ever seen. our largest overweights are in health care shares. we think our consumer staples which suffered a rise in commodity prices over the last year, we will start to see that negative drag ebb and they can catch up some performance while paying high dividends. if we take a look at the surface again, we think there are unstoppable trends that have suffered from the rebound in

cyclicals in terms of relative performance. it is about alternative energy, fintech or cybersecurity come of these long-term performers which have good performance over a few years, but where energy or banks had to rebound, some of those shares probably outperform well, particularly if you look at a five-year return. jonathan: you are looking at your exposure across industries. walk us through how you're thinking about exposure allocation across regions, geographies beyond the united states. jonathan: at the moment it is a bit more overweight the u.s. and other regions, and that is partly because of fed tightening. i would contrast it a little bit with where we were in 2013 through 2018, that period with the onset of the end of qe, fed tightening from 2015 with nine rate hikes from 2015 to 2018. that was a period in which the u.s. dollar was extremely weak

at the starting point. oil, petroleum, $100 for many years, while the u.s. doubled oil output. we subsequently had a 65% drop in oil, a 20% surge in the dollar. that dynamic we think is not going to be as severe this time, partially because the dollar is higher on a trade-weighted basis, on inflation-weighted basis, both on emerging-market as well as developed market currencies. if we take a look at china, it's equity market was soaring into the start of fed tightening. this time it is down 32%, at its low point as the fed begins tightening. so it is a different set up here. i think international non-us dollar assets hold a little better, but we will still buy if they are selling a little bit here. kailey: talking about fed policy, we just ran through some fx commodities, can you take

your assumptions about what the fed will do next year, where you think inflation or growth are going, and make a call with conviction on where you think the tenure will end 2022? steven: that was much conviction, but it is at a rate level that is offering negative real returns, probably out for a decade. you can just take a look at the treasury inflation protected security market. we think 10 year average consumer price inflation will be on the order of 2.5%. we are not really disagreeing with the bond market. the rise in inflation expectations we see we think is very realistic. the federal reserve and other central banks are not going to try to knock down the trend inflation rate by using recession to opportunistically push down inflation. but we think the rate of inflation will come down, and there were some a usual aspects

-- some unusual aspects to demand and supply. some of that can come off. in other words, we think we can see modestly rising real yields, but this is not compelling enough to get us to really move into safer fixed income. we do have an overweight in tips. we have contemplated reducing. it has really been well-positioned get these upward inflation surprises. but now the tips market is at a high valuation. jonathan: got to leave it there. as always, thank you. inc. you for everything this year on this morning. steve weiting on citi global investment. some upgrades to price targets. this on gm from citi. they are looking for $96. matt: gm and ford both seem to be a little late to the game

when it comes to hybrids. of course, forward a few years ago when completely away -- ford just surpassed general motors' market cap for the first time in years. gm has the hover coming out, and it may not be the same kind of broad accessibility as you see with the f-150. jonathan: have you thought much about the secondhand market, given the battery replacement costs? how do you take a risk buying one of these cars in the secondhand market down the road? matt: it would bother me if it is difficult to swap out the battery to buy an electric vehicle. jonathan: it sounds like lease, lease, lease and the future. futures advancing a little more than 0.1%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word

news, i'm ritika gupta. today will be the second time this month leaders of the u.s. and russia have talked. the white house as president biden and vladimir putin will discuss a range of topics, but the issue of ukraine is likely to be prominent. early this month, president biden told putin that russian aggression would be messed with unprecedented economic penalties. a new study on the johnson & johnson coronavirus vaccine is welcome news for africa. two doses of the shop -- doses of the shot. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken calling on china to stop arresting hong kong journalists. that comes a day after the biggest remaining pro-democracy news renovation shut down following a police raid. blinken said a free press is key to hong kong's future as i financial hub. goldman sachs has the number one

advisors on mergers and acquisitions, and it came during a record year for gold making. -- for gold making -- for goal making. the bank held at the nearly $4 million in fees for the year. the chairman of credit spruce -- of credit suisse reportedly broke quarantine rules for a second time. he attended the wimbledon tennis finals in london, an apparent contradiction of u.k. rules. he was said to have flown out of switzerland when he should have been in isolation. he is not commenting. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think it is going to be a good outcome for inflation. i don't think it is going to

return to our 2% fed target. i think it is going to stay elevated around 3% in the balance of this recovery, but i do think it is going to moderate next year, and that is going to calm fears of runaway inflation. jonathan: great range of guests to close out 2021. with matt miller, kailey leinz, i'm jonathan ferro. the s&p advancing a little more than 0.1%. the nasdaq 100 advancing 0.15%. yields lower by two or three basis points on tends to 1.5238%. a big feature of 2021 has been the discipline of commodity players. typically over the last several decades, they will dig a hole, pumped more crude, extract more copper. it is different this time in many ways. we want to discuss that with jeanine wai, senior e&p analyst at barclays -- senior enp

analyst at barclays. can you build on that line for us, please? jeanine: sure. inflation concerns continue to be rampant. in the last segment, i know you talked a lot about it. it is really going to put a spotlight on both capital discipline and efficiency. most investors think inflation will exceed the 10% to 15% that our companies have been talking about on our last earnings call. higher inflation equals higher capex, and that is clearly bad. but the name of the game in energy is still capital discipline, and therefore we just don't think our companies are going to chase production growth if inflation runs ahead of what they expect. the wildcard is really inefficiencies. companies think they can offset inflation with efficiencies, but we are in the later stages of that for the industry, so there

is a lot of skepticism on that. kailey: how does that feed into your expectations for dividend payouts and buyback action? jeanine: the key is capital discipline. if you have capital discipline, we have a very positive view on what value will be next year. our averages about 9%, which is a really attractive proposition for investors. kailey: obviously when we are talking about capital discipline and the prospect of returning cash to shareholders, you have to be a public company. what differences are we seeing versus the private behavior, specifically in the shale complex? did they start to feel pressure if shale players are drilling more? jeanine: that is something everybody has their eye on. the rig count in the u.s. is a very visible metric. we kept her week, we have not seen a difference between public and private. the public rig count has been more modest in terms of its increase, and the private rig count has been pretty quick. we don't think that private

companies are held to the same standard, so we think the private operators will continue to spend more, but we think the public operators in 2022, just like in 2021, are going to be very modest and disciplined. they are still seeking that low growth, high free cash flow model. matt: we saw a little but of activism in 2021. does the esg movement make any difference to these companies and 2022? jeanine: esg makes a difference to everyone of our companies. it depends on which subsector you look at. for esg on the enp side, companies are somewhat more limited in with their scope can be. they have already done a great job at going after emissions. some companies are deciding to look further down the value chain at hydrogen, wind and solar. if you look at the u.s. integrated, that is where you can make a bigger impact on that. you've had large announcements from chevron and exxon, with

exxon spending $15 billion just on lower emissions and esg efforts, so we think it matters to companies and to investors as well. matt: do you still have the u.s. government asking the saudis and opec to please pull more oil out of the ground? how do you view opec production next year and opec discipline in terms of production? jeanine: our upstream call is still positive. we are clearly married oil prices. if we look at opec+ behavior come our oil strategist's are saying they will still -- that paper will slow or they will hold production instead of increasing. jonathan: what are the top calls for next year? jeanine: our official designation is conocophillips.

if you think shale yield is going to drive that performance next year, we are overweight on marathon, pioneer, and debit energy. we think there's a couple of ways to play inflation in terms of companies being more insulated. you can be diversified. you could have contract logins -- contract lock-ins. chevron and exxon we are overweight, as well as pioneer and conocophillips. jonathan: jeanine, thank you, as always. joining us from barclays on some of these oil stories. we go back to the beginning of this conversation. do you remember 10, 20 years ago, if prices were up? more drinking, -- more digging, more drilling. a different factor now in this story. matt: although as prices risematt:, i think it is interesting that after cop-26, u.s. government officials were talking about climate change, they came back home and then

called up opec and said please pull more natural resources. jonathan: they were doing it while they were there. they didn't wait to get home. they were doing it before they went. think the president was in rome. matt: i think that is ironic. alaniz morrissette would approve of that use. it is very interesting, the changes to me, and opec. greg valliere would be a great person to ask was a geopolitical fallout is going to be if we have continued or elevated problems with russia. jonathan: let's talk about domestic politics. for a lot of people, the road ahead, the year ahead all goes back to that headline inflation story, for domestic politics exclusively about that headline inflation call, closed his heaven percent at the moment. -- close to 7% at the moment. kailey: at the end of the day, the higher price at the grocery

store, the higher price at the pump is what consumers actually feel, and there is political pressure that comes with that. we have seen the administration try to take action to ease up some of the shortage in supply chain issues, but at the end of the day, there's only so much that the president is able to do about inflation. encouraging opec to pump more, while it may be contradictory, it may be one of his only options. jonathan: you've always got to blame the man in charge. the tone from the administration at times has been lacking. we have talked about that briefly. sometimes it is just wide of the mark. matt: absolutely. it is one week and one day until i come back to new york city, as i have been reminding you pretty constantly. i can't wa -- i can't wait to get back to the cheap gas in the united states. it will instantly be a $0.50 cut. i am looking at a huge discount. jonathan: you enjoy the new york city rents, -- rents, too,

compared to what you pay in berlin. you will have fun in that. down on the 10 year, 1.53 76%. with matt miller, kailey leinz, and jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg -- i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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jonathan: a sprinkle of economic data to close out the year. initial jobless claims any second. live on tv and radio with kailey leinz and matt miller, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up six. 198,000, below 200,000. the median estimate 206,000 come the previous read 205,000's. they are the numbers we want to see. 198,000. kailey: that is the lowest we have seen in decades. this is the week that ended december 25 so there is holiday impact. the labor market recovery is chugging along. jonathan: that is one heck of a number. that is good to see. 198,000.

matt: absolutely. what the fed is focused on and what tom focuses on a lot on this program is the labor force participation rate. that still is not come back to pre-pandemic levels and that is what the fed is trying to focus its policy on, especially certain groups that have had real trouble bouncing back. you will see the new nominees focused on those issues. jonathan: hopefully we get those fed picks pretty soon, hopefully at the start of next year, maybe next week. data on u.s. retail foot traffic. here are some interesting numbers. u.s. retail foot traffic rose 36.9% last week from a year earlier. you're on your stuff, but improvement. up 6.9% year-over-year. kailey: people may be getting in last-minute holiday shopping but

that is a consumer out and spending even in the face of the omicron variant. we have seen the propensity to spend has not yet been hit by that. jonathan: let's get to the analysis. the senior u.s. economic at bloomberg comments -- at bloomberg economists joins us now. your thoughts? >> perfect number. that shows you that companies are really eager to keep their existing labor force in place. the number i look at in this report is the unemployment rate, which dropped to 1.3%. this is the number of people who are getting unemployment insurance as a percentage of the labor force. this is just .1% lower or higher than the lowest level before the

pandemic. that tells us we are good to hit 3.5% unemployment rate pretty soon. in fact, the bar is so low for that that even with moderate improvements in jobs, we will hit 3.5% by the middle of next year. kailey: i should correct myself i said that was one of the lowest in decades, but we did get the 188 handle earlier in the month. we look at jobless claims continue to trend lower. the unemployment rate, 3.5 is what we are looking at, yet you are still seeing low participation. are we starting to understand that structural changes in this labor market when you can have not as many people seeking jobs and unemployment benefits simultaneously? yelena: i think we are going to see continued slightest dish in the participation rate recovery, unfortunately.

3.5% this time around is not the same as 3.5% before the pandemic. nonetheless, it will satisfy the definition of full employment the federal reserve is looking at. the number of people who are looking for jobs as a percentage of labor force, that will be perfectly fine next year. that will prompt the fed to hike rates in 2022. kailey: we last heard from the fed the chairman made it clear they are able to act on inflation without necessarily having fully met their employment part of the mandate. you think the employment data matters or is it just the inflation front and reacting to that? yelena: i think the focus has shifted away from the labor market, which is improving quite rapidly, and the focus is now clearly on the inflation side of the story.

matt: i want to ask your take on a question jonathan has been asking me all week, i do not know why. is it possible for the fed to fight inflation without negatively affecting economic growth? yelena: i think it is, at least in the beginning of the process. i think it is free much priced in and set in stone for the fed to start tightening policy. the question will become more interesting by the end of next year as we sit and talk about the prospects for 2023, that will be more difficult. i think we will see three rate hikes next year, at least, but as inflation starts to slow, our projection is for 2.8% by the end of next year, and if a lot of more hawkish members of the fomc rotate off the voting roster at the end of 2022, we

will face some difficult questions about what happens in 2023 comp especially with the new board members joining the fed. matt: what did they do that triggers a tightening of financial conditions? is it about the taper? is about unwinding the balance sheets? is it about raising rates? how do they gauge how they are affecting -- yelena: all of the above. they need to talk tough. that is what they have been doing. chair powell at the latest press conference said the way they already communicate is already starting to show in some data. they need to be vigilant, they need to talk tough that they will fight inflation a matter what. we will see by the end of next

year what happens. it will depend a lot on what the markets are doing, the yield curve comment economic conditions. our projection is for solid growth going into next year. we see growth in the passivity of 4% by the end of 2023. this is way above potential. economic conditions are there. if you are talking about the data, last week we receive the personal income and spending report, a lot of people talked about real pce being flat, but services recovered pretty well in that report and it was right there. this is what we are going to see going to 2022 as well. kailey: i am glad you brought that up because obviously flat spending when adjusted for inflation was something we focused on. fed policy can influence demand, but even independent of monetary policy do you see any threat we start to see a demand hit

because of inflation and that consumers tolerance of higher prices will start to wane? yelena: not necessarily. i think the november pce report serves as a good template of what we are going to see next year in terms of consumer spending and consumer strength. so far we have seen a significant recovery in goods spending, but what we have not seen so far is the significant recovery services spending. this is what we call rotation into services. we have talked about it for a while. a lot of savings and consumer's pockets, they are still there. more wealthy households are going to spend on services. not necessarily on goods. we may see good spending slow down. matt: when you see those retail

savings burnt off? do we go through them in 2022, or do americans become frugal savers? yelena: i doubt it. i do not think i will save much. i think we will see that deflation quite significantly in 2022. we will not have programs like unemployment insurance that add to the savings. the savings rate is back to the levels we saw pre-pandemic. we will go through quite a significant portion of those savings next year. this will continue to support spending, especially the focus will be experience uncertainty.

the big if is the virus. if we continue to see the spike in infections and things like that, that will hold back the recovery. jonathan: you sound like matt, you both have kids to look after and i imagine they cost a lot of money. thank you. that just about does it for me. the next time you and i see each other will be in the flesh in new york city. matt: yes. i am jealous because you still have an hour of television to do and you have one of my favorite guests. you saved them for yourself. you wait until kailey and i are gone and then you talk to mohammed. jonathan: is a separate show at 9:00. mohamed el-erian will be joining us on the year that was, what we have learned from 2021 and a look ahead to 2022. a lot of this comes back to the transitory story. he was calling on the fed to pull back. they started to pull back now.

what happens next? we have learned so much about the economy this year, what does it mean for the market call? if you get the economic all right does it help you make the right market call? after that i am done for the year. before i go, i've said thanks to my audience in my guest. i often describe my job as herding cats. that job someone else's. a lot of those people are in the control room. i started my career on the other set of the camera. i know how hard they'll work. thank you so much to all of you. an easier job this week because the guy that needs a lot of handholding is not here. he wears a bowtie. an easier job for them. thank you to them all and a happy new year. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ritika: president biden and

russian leader vladimir putin plan to talk by phone on what the white house calls a range of topics. the u.s. is russia's military buildup is likely to be high on that list. weeks ago the u.s. warned russian aggression would be meant with unprecedented economic sanctions. u.s. navies costly as worship can deploy on its first operational patrol. the uss gerald ford now has all of the elevators needed to lift bombs from the lower deck. bloomberg reported the problem in 2018. the carrier cost of $.3 billion. another record number of coronavirus cases worldwide. that is the most ever in the third day in a row with more than one million infections. the higher transmissibility of the a micron. it is expected to drive records in the days to come.

ghislaine maxwell faces years in a prison that is likely to be harsher than where martha stewart did time. the ex-girlfriend of jeffrey epstein was convicted in new york on five counts tied to sexual abuse because she was convicted of sex crimes, ghislaine maxwell is not eligible for a minimum security prison. thousands of bank of santander customers got an unexpected christmas gift. spain's largest lender accident lee made a 175 billion -- a $175 million payment. the bank is now trying to get that money back. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> earnings will be good, the stock market will go higher, inflation will roll over back to

2% or 3% and it will happen faster than people think as the shock adjustment rolls out. kailey: insightful conversation with david co. talk we had yesterday -- with david kotok we had yesterday. he also very focused on the pandemic and along covid. let's continue to talk about this virus with deborah fuller, professor of microbiology at the university of washington school of measured -- of medicine. we have seen a change and guidance from a 10 day isolation period to a five day isolation period if you have tested positive. for families across the country who have just gathered over the holiday and now though they may have had direct exposure for someone who is positive and are living in the same house and they do not test positive, what does the science say those people should do? deborah: it depends if you are vaccinated or not.

there are two levels. isolation means if you did test positive you need to self-isolate for five days. say the family member comes home and they start to feel sick and go get tested and they become positive for covid-19, they should self-isolate within their home for five days and after five days they can come out with their mask on and hang out with you. if the rest of the families are vaccinated, that means you know you were just exposed to somebody. if you are vaccinated, you do not need to quarantine. you do need to go around if you go out and about, you need to wear your mask for a minimum of 10 days. that is the recommendation. if you become positive, you are in the same boat as your family member and need to self-isolate. kailey: some of the other confusing messaging we have gotten out of the cdc, rochelle walensky was speaking saying the science does not necessarily tell us whether positive test

indicate your ability to transmit the virus, saying people should not get pcr tests after they test positive because it may tell you you're still positive for weeks. what we know about the connection between positivity and giving that other people, especially with omicron that is more contagious? deborah: the pcr test is a test that measures the sequences of the virus. what can happen is even after you have cleared the virus from your body, you can still have those sequences stick around for quite some time. what is happening is the pcr can measure dead virus. you can come up positive by pcr for weeks even after you have clear it. the antigen test is little bit more specific in that it only comes up if you are shedding virus. the difficulty there is it is not necessarily as sensitive as the pcr test.

with home testing, if you can take that on a daily basis, the repeated testing and repeated coming up positive or coming up negative, that will provide much more assurance and confidence of whether your positive or negative. matt: it seems to me you should just use conservative common sense and we will all be ok. deborah: exactly. [laughter] matt: if you spent the holiday season with someone who tested positive should chill out and wear a mask. i wonder about long covid. what we know about people who suffer infections or disease that might indicate infections that have gone beyond the respiratory system? deborah: this is the big unknown right now. there is a lot of research going on to understand better what are the causes, what are the mechanisms underlying long covid.

we do know that a virus infection does cause inflammation and sometimes inflammation, even long after the virus has cleared the body, can persist and has a feedback loop that can continue to cause inflammatory responses in any part of your body. to some extent we believe long covid may be related to this durable inflammatory response. we do not know for sure. that is an area of ongoing study. we will learn more about it. certainly one of the big reasons i tell people you do not want to get this virus, it is something you do not know long-term how that is going to impact your body. matt: although isn't it likely we are all going to get this virus? especially now that we are seeing numbers approaching 2 million new infections globally in a single day, and we have

seen that three days in a row. are we not all going to get this? angela merkel, not only was she the chancellor of germany, but also a phd in chemistry. at the very beginning of 2020 she said 60% to 70% of the population is going to get this. deborah: especially with omicron being so widespread and so massively transmissible, there is an expectation the majority of us will get exposed. will we all come out positive? will we all get along covid? to a great extent vaccination will make a huge difference. we have seen that when you get vaccinated you are able to recover much more quickly. there are higher chances of asymptomatic infections. vaccination does help to more effectively clear the virus from the body and control that

inflammatory response that typically arises in response to the infection. kailey: deborah fuller, university of washington school of medicine, thank you for sharing time with us this week. happy new year to you. matt, you raise an interesting point. at the beginning of the pandemic we were talking about herd immunity. it has always been a moving target. but now is it something that is feasible at becoming a reality? matt: i do not know about herd immunity, but it does seem like a large portion of the population is going to get this. the problem is we know you can be reinfected, which we were not sure about at the beginning of this. they can get it over and over again. it will be interesting to see how bad those infections are, maybe this become something like the common cold or the flu. it will also be interesting to see if they develop a kind of

pan-coronavirus vaccine that is hopefully more effective than the flu vaccine and can address different kinds of variants. kailey: the question is when will that be coming? will we all be getting boosters to oblivion or will we have a one-size-fits-all vaccine? omicron is the variant we are focused on now but it could be a different one two months from now. this virus has proven capable of mutating quickly. who knows what is coming down the line, not to be a downer at the end of the show. matt: i do not think it is such a downer. booster to oblivion, is that really so bad? people bring that up as if it is a horrible worst case scenario. i do not mind if i could get a booster every six months for the rest of my life. there are plenty of other chemicals i ingest on a daily basis, and better living through chemistry. kailey: i have to say i've never

reacted so poorly to any vaccine as i did to my covid booster shot. that could have something to do with that. futures in positive territory, 4790 on the s&p, we could be looking at the 71st record high of the year. on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: how may times have we said this? coming into thursday at all-time highs. from new york city, good morning. your equity market advancing a

little more than .1%. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. the lessons of 2021. >> the big lesson of 2021. >> do not fight the fed. >> p patient. >> this was the year we finally saw a real economic inflation show up. >> in january if we had said 6.8 inflation at the end of the year -- >> it would not have predicted a 10 year treasury at 1.5%. >> you would've thought markets