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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  December 31, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EST

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a very volatile year. >> we are not going to see a repeat. >> the volatility market has gotten used to the new normal. >> it might just be the fact that it is slow growth, sort of high inflation air that we were in pre-pandemic. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. matt: from berlin, london, and new york and our audience worldwide, this is -- good morning, just one time, because the birthday boy is off today. tom keene is off, lisa is off, and jon ferro has a birthday. happy birthday buddy. it is also new year's eve, the second most important thing to discuss today. do you both have plans, are you going out, what does new year's
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eve look like in new york? kriti: i am staying in but i hear that times square will be popping, they will be confetti and the ball drop, i will just not be a part of any of it. dani: i cannot think of anything i would rather do less then going to times square on new year's. i will be noted -- nowhere year -- nowhere near anywhere as that. i will have a nice dinner party, it will be chilled out. matt: a little pretested -- pretexted murder mystery? are we seeing celebrations already? auckland fireworks, i hear. so, it looks like at least they are setting off fireworks. it sounds like there are people out there, i see cars driving as well. >> one of the best financial narratives to ever come out is
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from bradley hope and one billion-dollar layout -- one billion-dollar whale that jho low but celebrated here and then rented a commercial flight for 14 of his closest friends, flew over to vegas and celebrated again, we will kinda be virtually doing that across programming. matt: in some ways just really a champion, wasn't he? we have a lot coming up. jay bryson, a chief economist at wells fargo joins us and michael purves joins us, the founder of -- and a global airline analyst and christina cooper at invesco. looking forward to a lot coming up on this program today. let us take a look at what is going on in the markets. mostly for the most part you will see close markets around the world today. right now s&p futures down 7.5
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after a little bit of a pullback yesterday. there was one point yesterday where we were up over 4800 and that pulled back, so we did not get your 71st record close, the euro was unchanged at 11325. not doing too badly considering what we have seen of late as of dollar strength. the 10-year yield was 15067. as i move back i need to consider do i continue saying one spot five -- one. 5067 or do i switch back? is that a british thing? matt: is that a british -- dani: i say you take it with you. you say in berlin we say that. matt: i picked it up from guy johnson so it is a british thing, not german at all. let us get over to sebastian,
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the senior at mass -- at investment funds and say happy new year's eve, i hope you have a fun and healthy night of celebration. what do you make of 2021 and what are you looking forward to most in 2022? sebastian: to follow bloomberg and the second element is what you have is a wave of liquidity that everybody talks about but what is surprising about this one is that normally the market is driven by expectations in terms of interest rates and currency and when that starts to turn, everything turns with it and people become more prudent and they lighten up on credit and high-yield and things start to pop in different sections and then the correction comes back and it is what everybody has been speaking about. as we continue to push stock and
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price creating a feedback loop. this is, of course, completely nonsensical because interest rates are rising and monetary policy is becoming higher. even that will start to turn more hawkish and that is means that we are in an era of nonsense that suggests that having staff on the side and that may beat flexible solutions and long-duration positions. that we should -- that is something you should be prepared for. and also should be prepared for things going very badly wrong at some point. >> nonsense in 2022, but if we are still liquidity dependent what will it take for fundamentals to matter again in the market? sebastien: the fundamentals are
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a belief in the long-term and they are typically more optimistic than europeans. you think that things will pan out and think maybe i can put them through college and then inflation starts rising and you start to ask questions because it is eroding the value of assets and savings and the decline considering -- considerably and then consumers are more sensitive to inflation and less so in europe, but the long-term story is one of optimism based on what you see and the nasdaq apple and the breakthrough companies and they will continue to do well in the innovative markets and push out other companies and just do better and better, but that storyline is based on a belief that cannot be sustained in the long run but there are some the apples in the world and regulation is starting in the united states and becoming
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anti-apple and it will ramp up because like the chinese and the europeans and americans are realizing that as you build mega companies it is also innovation against competitors and they became against the code and the longer run. there are so many apple companies and we have seen unicorns underperform and the belief remains strong and it will probably continue. apple company and samsung will compete more on prices because their belief in long-term growth will be moderated. we have been looking at better growth in europe, but not so great at one point. that is not actually quite completely legal and it will start to break down. >> you said apple and my ears perked up and you are saying that as you see the growth, big
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tech will perform pretty well at least in the short term into 2022. what happens the recovery trade that we were so confident into 2021, the recovery on the u.s. stock market, where did that go? sebastien: it is so much more attractive to north american equities and the competition for liquidity and it is most fascinating in the u.s.. they are innovating and managing and there is this belief in long-term, and that is inherent to these companies but also in the wider populations and european and asians because they happen much better than what we do. matt: sounds like we are getting cut off. great to get some time with you for new year's eve, thank you for joining us. sebastian talking to us about a
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year that was and the year we are looking forward to and we have less than 12 hours before 2022. the dax of course is closed and has closed early. in terms of europe, we have the ftse and the cac's and the aex are still open but closing early. in terms of the u.s., the s&p futures down 11 points? >> treasuries closed 2:00 p.m. in new york time. matt: jonathan was asking the difference between the dumb money on smart money. the smart money is the one that takes more holidays. the 10 year it will be bond trading half a day, and one point 509, s&p kind of giving up some gains at the end of the year. yesterday the rally petered out and we are down 11 points in the
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futures. >> light volume and liquidity, the pattern we have been hearing a little long. investors were so sure going into it that they were taking it for granted, and there was for second monday and wednesday, but the tuesday-thursday we pulled back, very normal after you hit that milestone, it seems to be another kind of one of those let us get this new year started. matt: we did have last wednesday and thursday, 1% plus moves and then friday, christmas eve, still a decent rally into monday and tuesday. five days in a row of gains, better than a stake in the eye and where we are right now at 47 -- 47.70? 47.61, not too far off from a
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record high. what is the forecast for 2022 year end, 5000? kriti: some say 4400, depending on how bullish or bearish you are and the question is is tech the one leading the charges and you see that leading the gains and does that happen in 2022? matt: there is a wide dispersion and i've heard as high as 5300 -- 53 hundred. coming michael purves the founder and ceo of capital advisors joins us he is never nervous. we are looking forward to that conversation. do not miss it on this new year's eve and also jonathan ferro's birthday. this is bloomberg. >> with the first word news, the kremlin says that russian president vladimir putin is satisfied with the outcome of talks with joe biden.
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the phone conversations at the stage for three sets of negotiations on european security next month. the white house said that president biden urged putin to de-escalate with ukraine. the president warned that the u.s. and its allies will respond decisively if russia invades. the omicron variant is setting some grim records. for the first time the number of daily new cases of coronavirus went over 2 million. it was the fourth day in a row of one that -- of more than one million cases. more fallout from the search in covid cases. one of the staunchest advocates returning to the office is off visiting employees. jp morgan is not changing its long-term plans but allowing more flexibility in the first two weeks of january. citi group has asked for employees to work from home for the first couple weeks. the port of los angeles will charge a fee on ocean carriers
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that fail to pick up empty containers. the port is the largest in the u.s. and the main gateway firm importance for china -- for imports from china. a devastating wildfire in colorado destroyed hundreds of homes and forced thousands to evacuate. the disaster took place outside of the city of boulder. the fast-moving fire spread through neighborhoods in a matter of hours. one official says close to 600 homes might have burned down. so far, no reports of casualties. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think that manchin is the biggest wildcard but he would be
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willing to take a scaled-back provisions and child tax credit and a scaled-back on a lot of issues, instead of 2 trillion going down to 900 billion, but i think there is a deal and i think the white house and progressives will take anything that they can get. matt: that was greg valliere agf investments and chief u.s. policy strategist on the build back better plan, still on hold into the new year and we do not know what we will get in terms of a number of things importance to americans, that child tax credit, important to some americans are not to others which is why they are on hold. the salt tax deduction cap is an issue that still needs to be dealt with, or maybe it does not depending on how you deal with it. looking at markets on this new year's eve morning we are, i
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guess you would say afternoon in berlin, but still morning ish in london and definitely in new york city. s&p futures down nine dark and early. euro trading one .332. u.s. 10 year 1.5067. safe to say, very thin volume today. kriti: very thin volume and liquidity. i have been saying that on repeat all week long. what is interesting is that you are seeing record highs and usual trade kickback into tack and utilities, real estate and even when the bond market is doing a whole lot of nothing. matt: we will continue to keep our eye on markets regardless how thin the volume in. -- volume is, so let us get to geopolitics. james is here as a managing
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director of cap -- kappa alpha partners, he is looking at what is going on the world, but some trepidation. let us look at the u.s. and russia, and we had a call in which president putin came away happy and there is still a lot of negotiation to go on between the west and russia in terms of what he intends to do in ukraine, how do you view it? >> i think the world is actually a dangerous place as we come to the end of 2021. the united states is totally focused on its domestic internal politics, and yet we have a pattern whereby russia is testing the united states and testing the nato alliance really across the length of their entire border with the nato alliance from ukraine all the way out to sweden and the baltics. and china too we have this pattern of warfare where china is simulating attacks on u.s.
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carriers and stimulating attacks on u.s. forces. china has a fishing fleet that behaves a lot like a coast guard or paramilitary force that periodically attacks oil projects in vietnam and so forth. it is like we are on a trip wire outside the world and i am not going even into our ran at this point --iran at this point but washington is all about the domestic politics and elections. dani: given the geopolitical risks and that the u.s. is concentrated internally, does the u.s. or reston world have the ability to exert any type of influence in these various issues, given that russia and china see the internal conflict happening in the u.s.? james: we see china, russia and iran becoming aggressive because
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lacey internal division in the united states and precisely because they see us as being distracted and without focus. also there is the question of president biden himself, will he run for a second term. nobody in washington believes that he will. we all believe that the year will end whether it is december or january with biden announcing that he will not run for a second term. that is difficult because a president who is essentially a lame-duck who has two years left is not going to be a president who can conduct a trade policy and a national security policy where foreign policy generally becomes most countries waiting for the next person. dani: if joe biden does not run again, who takes his place and do you expect continuity in terms of who the dems put up for the presidential seat? james: every presidential cycle is different. i think we will have
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competition. we will see many qualified candidates, and i think the field will include names that we saw in the last cycle like tulsi gabbard, she is a dark corpse -- course candidate, or cory booker or pete buttigieg, and kamala harris are part of the mix. all of this is frozen, you cannot begin the process of taking the new nominee until president biden announces his intentions, which certainly cannot happen until after midterm elections. once that does happen, we will be in full presidential succession mode and it will be very difficult for the white house to get top quality people to join the administration from the assistant secretary and above. so we are entering a period where the united states is looking for new leaders. that will be a total focus one
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year from today. kriti: let us talk about what we will see in a couple of days when congress get back into session and i am talking about the build back better plan. how much of this is priced in. we saw goldman downgrade in terms of growth and impact on u.s. growth, but in terms of pricing it in and the impact, what changes in 2022? james: the first thing we know is that we will not see a major corporate tax increase, that has been priced into the market much of this year and i think that anticipation that the tax increase will be less than the anticipated hike of 5% really supported the equity markets since summer onward. also the new capital gains tax and no broad-based tax on individuals. all of this is supported and has been priced into the market which is why we have a fundamentally constructive view.
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if you look at parts of the packets that are -- package that are of most concern, the clean energy parts of the plan i have very little doubt that that $200 billion package is going to get done one way or the other. so, the stuff that the market likes is baked into the cake and i think that supporting markets, the markets would like to see a boost, but there is enough worry about inflation that we can live without more fiscal impact. you mentioned january 12 when we get the inflation print, and if that print and the estimates in the month of december has a seven handle, washington is going to come screeching to a halt. matt: thank you for joining us. real pleasure talking to you, thank you so much for your time on this new year's eve day, james of capital alpha partners
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talking about the headwinds that we face in terms of geopolitical risk and domestic political issues as well. coming up, we talked to jay bryson, the chief economist at wells fargo as we finish off 2021 and look forward to 2022. ♪ this is bloomberg.
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♪ dani: this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg to envision and radio. -- television and radio. not a lot to catch up on if you are taking the day off because we've failed to hit another record in u.s. equity markets and we don't seem like we will do that today. it has been 70 all-time highs this year but we are looking at a weaker start, down about 2/10 of 1%. for the s&p, nasdaq, and russell, a little bit more weakness in russell and nasdaq futures. yesterday the russell outperformed so may giving back some of that. european volumes are off by some 90% today, what you would expect for the last trading day of the
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year. the market has been weird all week given that the fed is not present. we saw some extreme selling, heavier than you would expect earlier in the week and now we are pretty much hanging tight. we can't even get a move of a basis point. the 10 year yield still hovering above the 50 day average at 1.50. we will see how that shapes up for 2022 as we look at the fed on course for tightening and some of the yield differentials. given that we are looking at a fed going on a tightening path and europe is not, we've seen dollar strength. euro-dollar on track for its worst performance since 2015 so another way the dollar is on track for its best year since 2015. that is ebbing and flowing a bit today, lighter volume and volatility but currency markets
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is the one that will stay open as we get a lot closing early. euro strengthening versus the dollar by under 1/10 of 1%. matt: breaking news crossing the bloomberg terminal right now. looks like the u.k. regulator has approved pfizer's covid pill . the u.k. medicine and health care product regulatory agency said it was found to be safe and effective at reducing the risk of hospitalization and death in people with mild-to-moderate covid-19 infections who are at increased risk of developing severe disease. more news out of pfizer yesterday, we got a story from "the new york times" that the fda approved the pfizer booster shot for use in kids ages 12 to 15. now the u.k. regulator is coming
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out with an approval of the pfizer covid pill. that will be clearly a highly debated issue, who gets those first, where can you get your hands on them? i'm sure they will be sold out and difficult to obtain. we will continue to cover all that covid news. not completely disconnected, the economy. jay bryson joins us. thanks for coming on the program on this new year's day. what kind of effects are you expecting the pandemic to have on the economy as we get into 2022? jay: you know, matt, if you look at a year ago when cases were spiking, we had a pretty weak first quarter. we could be setting up for the same thing here. there has been a little bit of a pullback in travel, a pullback in terms of people going to restaurants.
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all that said, i wouldn't expect a complete downturn or anything coming from those, more of a little speedbump in the road as people get more cautious. it seems like most of us continue to go about our daily lives and in general, consumer spending should hold up well. matt: how does inflation look to you as we go into 2022? is it going to come back down or are we going to see inflation hold or rise? jay: in the near term, i wouldn't be surprised if you do see a seven handle in terms of the overall rate of cpi inflation among the euro. you talked about the pandemic, this is only going to make the supply chain problems a little bit worse over the next few months. i would expect inflation to remain elevated the first part of the year. i think the supply is on the
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upside but as you go through the year, assuming the supply problems work their way out and they eventually should, demand is decelerating. both of those things should cause the overall inflation rate to reseed on a year-over-year basis but it is going to remain elevated more from what people generally believe. dani: we've also seen staff shortages start to bite, certainly in the u.s. with airlines. to what extent are you concerned about labor tightness and costs of labor feeding into inflation? jay: that is a little bit of a concern. the bigger concern for me in terms of the labor market is what happens to inflation expectations, what do people think will happen going forward? if people generally start to believe inflation will remain elevated, then they start asking for bigger wage increases as you
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go forward and that starts to perpetuate the whole inflationary cycle. so far, we haven't seen that at least in terms of the further out inflation expectations. this is certainly not the 1970's yet but if we get to that point and people believe inflation will remain elevated, you start to have a problem. in the near term, the labor market tightness could cause issues but assuming the pandemic starts to recede, though short-term issues start to go away as well. it is longer-term inflation dynamic that is more concerning. dani: what would you say to those who argue that we've seen inflation show up in consumer sentiment surveys but we haven't gotten that wage price spiral, therefore it is unlikely to affect sentiment? jay: it is not as likely as it
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was in 1970. we had a lot more union power. people had cost-of-living adjustments built into wage contracts. you don't have that automatic spiral that can happen today. it gets back to the inflation expectations part that i talked about. people expect inflation to remain high, they will ask for bigger and bigger wage increases and that's when you get the cost push inflation. kirit: can we zoom out and talk about where the u.s. fits with the world broadly? the big consensus is coming out of the 2020 pandemic we would be entering a global growth period similar to 2016 through 2018 before the trade war with china began. why can we still see that perhaps even if we are seeing the virgin circumstance -- diverging circumstances between the u.s., europe, and china? jay: it is not like policy is
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tight anywhere, not like central banks are clamping down. maybe a few of them are starting to tap on the brakes. you can see this global acceleration together or global growth out book -- outlook that remains reasonable. next year we are looking for global gdp growth around 4%. to put that into perspective, the long-term average is around 3.5%. we believe next year on a global sense will be a year of above trend growth. kirit: how much of that factors into -- or how much of china factors into what you just said and the fact that there zero covid policy may be hurting some of their growth? how does that chuckle into -- trickle into the rest of the world? jay: first of all, there is a cyclical thing with china that resolves around covid clamp down and there is a longer secular thing going on.
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if you look at the pre-financial crisis period, global gdp growth for those four years averaged over 5%. we are not going to get back to their. china will not grow 20% year-over-year. that's why we are looking at a slower pace of growth over the next year then you had back there, but assuming that china doesn't completely crash and burn in terms of the covid policy, it's potentially, you could get those strong -- 2022, that's 4% or a little bit higher. matt: even if you get higher than that, is there a risk that the u.s.-china relationship deteriorates and that hurts u.s. economic growth? jay: i think there is certainly the possibility, godless of whether you have strong growth or not, there's a possibility --
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regardless of whether you have strong growth or not, there's a possibility to deteriorate the relationship. the exports to china are roughly $100 billion a year but you have to look at that in terms of a $23 trillion economy. if we have an aluminum trade war with china, will that cause a recession in the united states? probably not. we need a bigger shock. really deterioration if china invades taiwan, that's a completely different story. if all we are talking about his continued trade tensions with china, it will affect the u.s. economic growth on the margin. it will not cause a u.s. recession. matt: thanks so much for joining us, a pleasure having you and happy new year, jay bryson of wells fargo talking about the economy. take a look at markets now in terms of s&p future.
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we have red arrows on the screen and equities or equity futures, red arrows mean it is falling unlike when i am talking about bond yields where red arrows means it is rising. the euro at 1.1329. the 10 year at 1.5339. what's your thought on the arrows and colors we have? dani: matt, i feel like i've been brainwashed by you because i hear you complain about this every day and i to think we need to change -- i too think we need to change the colors. matt: coming up, andrew pekosz from the bloomberg school of public health joins us to talk about omicron. this is bloomberg. ♪ dani: with the first word news, i'm dani burger. boris johnson's government said every adult in england will have
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a chance to receive a covid booster. it's a critical part of the strategy for tackling the omicron variant. the soaring caseload is putting more pressure on hospitals. hong kong is becoming increasingly shut off from the rest of the world because of strict covid policies. the city has imposed a number of flight bands and airlines such as cathay pacific have been slashing service. u.k. reported a spread -- americans didn't let omicron stop them from going out the week before christmas. activity at businesses increased as much as 4.8% last week compared with the beginning of the month, according to a company which tracks mobile phone location data. the fourth quarter is turning out to be good for exxon mobil. higher crude oil boosted quarterly results by as much as
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$1.9 billion. shares are up 47% this year, on track for their best annual performance in 30 years. the top airline trade group in the u.s. filed an emergency request in the rollout of 5g. they say 5g airwaves could interfere with aircraft equipment and disrupt flights. the companies say they will rollout the new service at temporarily reduced power in the coming months. global news 24 hours a day, on air and bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm dani burger. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> mandates have been constitutional in the united
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states for 116 years. there's good evidence they work and it takes the onus away from the individual, moves at more onto society, employers, the government. back in have a big impact on people. matt: that was dr. chris beyner, johns hopkins public school of health doctor. i want to take a look at the markets. we are closed in germany and the u.k. and france are closing early, but the u.s. is open or will be. right now, we see futures indicating it will open down 9.5 points down on s&p futures. euro-dollar unchanged, 10 year yield little change. nymex crude is down 1.7%. if you pull up your wei screen,
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you can check the box for comparison, average volume in time, down 40%. kirit: 43% in the dow and we've got to talk about the nasdaq down 17% from the 10 day average. it is an understatement to say volume is light because it is lighter than it was all week. matt: i won't ask what it is like on the street because it is 6:48 in the morning and you haven't been out since probably 3:00 a.m. kirit: i can say the light is finally coming up. the studio is a little bit lighter, starting to see more people trickle into the office. matt: what about london? what's it like in the city? if you were to walk outside and go to greg's for a sausage roll, you run into a lot of people? dani: i don't know whether that's a compliment or like a weird insult that you picture me at greg's.
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i'm going to take it as a compliment but there is nobody here. it hasn't been anybody here for the past two weeks. people are back working from home but it is also the holiday period, lots of offices are closed. it does make me excited i can get my sausage roll without having to wait in line. matt: delicious. kirit: and i missing something with greg's? matt: a very good traditional sausage roll. there are greg's people and there are nando's people. kirit: i've only met them in the london office so now i know. matt: the spread of omicron has been like wildfire, not to draw any comparisons to what we saw happen in boulder overnight, but unbelievable, another 2 million cases globally.
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that's the fourth day in a row of more than a million cases. andrew pekosz, from johns hopkins public school of health, joins us now. are we going to see 3 million? are we going to see in a few weeks pretty much everybody getting this virus? andrew: it's important to note that the total case count, the official case counts are staggering and they are probably underestimates of how many cases of covid-19 are going on in the country now. it's been very difficult to really predict on a weekly basis how cases are going to go. there's some data out of south africa showing that the surges have fallen off as fast as they've increased. hopefully that's going to happen in other places as well but it's really staggering the number of cases that we have. important to note also that
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hospitalization rates are going up because a total number of cases we are seeing. matt: we've heard this as well from u.k. officials, but the estimates, the numbers we are talking about are likely underestimates. by a factor of two or three. it wouldn't surprise you, when i say we had 2 million cases globally in one day, it wouldn't surprise you if the real number was 5 million or 10 million? andrew: absolutely not. all of us are near people who are sick. the idea that the home tests are probably not being reported as effectively to public health officials as tests from a hospital or from another testing center would be, all that is contributing to an undercount in the number of cases we are seeing. outside of hospitalizations and deaths, because we can get accurate numbers on those. dani: it's also of course new year's eve today.
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happy new year's eve. i'm wondering how comfortable you would feel going to a bar, a crowded priced -- crowded place to celebrate if you are vaccinated with a booster? andrew: given the number of cases and the fact that so many individuals are home sick and not working or contributing to some things in society, i would be cautious about going out to any event with a large number of people. vaccines are protecting us against severe disease but it is not protecting us as well against symptomatic disease. so if you get sick, you will be out of work a few days and out of touch with other things for a few days, and that's what's taking a larger toll on our society right now than even the deaths. the number of people that are out sick particularly here at the hospital and other places, is taking a massive toll in terms of how things can function. kirit: talk about the testing
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piece. over 300 million people in the united states, joe biden talking about 500 million rapid tests. that's less than two tests per person. how often should people be testing and how much of that should be a factor given the size of the country? andrew: in an ideal situation, if you are coming in contact with people on a regular basis like going to work and those kinds of things, ideally you would love to be able to take a rapid antigen test or saliva test once or twice a week. that is impossible right now because of the large number of tests that are being unfocused to -- focused on people who are symptomatic. it is nice to give yourself a test before you go out to any kind of large event. anytime you feel symptoms, it would be good to take a rapid antigen test at home because the sooner you take yourself out of
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circulation, the less cases that you will potentially lead to because you won't put yourself in a position to transmit the people. those ideal situations are just impossible right now because of the backlog in tests and the unavailability of testing in the u.s. matt: andrew pekosz, we appreciate all the work you've been doing off-camera as well as on camera. you been very helpful to us all year and we wish you and your family the best for a happy and safe new year's eve. andrew pekosz of the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health, just one of the countless workers in the medical industry who are doing it -- i'm going to guess 16 hours a day pretty much seven-day's a week, giving as much as they possibly can during this pandemic. coming up, michael purves,
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founder and ceo of tau back in capital advisors to talk about what he sees in 2022 and what he's doing with his money as we see s&p futures down 10 points. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> we are going to have a very volatile year ahead of us. >> we will not see a repeat of what we had in the last two years. >> the volatility has essentially already gotten used to this new normal. >> we are back to the slow growth, sort of high inflation era that we were in pre-pandemic. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: from berlin -- matt: from berlin, new york, and london, this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg television, on bloomberg radio. you can stream us on the internet. you can probably get us in smoke signals. i'm matt miller, alongside kriti gupta and dani burger.

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