♪ >> will not a repeat of what we had in the last few years. >> we will see less in return when it comes to developed markets. >> the buy the dip half-life has been drinking. >> the market has essentially gotten use this new normal. >> why should it be any different than 2021? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: your equity markets flying out of the gate for 2022. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. adding to last year's monster gains. kailey: 27% gain for 2021, following big years before that. three years in a row of double-digit gains.

we heard from ben laidler, who sees a fourth-year. the consensus seems to be that returns are going to moderate in the year ahead. not going to be as blockbuster as the last several years. jonathan: big week ahead. take your pick. the ism, payrolls friday. a lot coming up. matt: are those the things you are focused on? jonathan: i will be focused on payrolls this friday. matt: for me, you know what i am doing? jonathan: your moving, matt. matt: i am moving. my mice, -- my wife, a one-year-old child, two cats and a dog. we cannot leave until we officially go to a police station and tell them we are leaving. got to do a bunch of tax things, get rid of some vehicles. do you know anyone who wants a ducati? jonathan: is this about you to start the hour? i could give you five more minutes and then maybe don't touch it again for the next 50 minutes. matt: i'm just concerned about

the flights. that's the final thing i will say. do you think we are going to get out of here? jonathan: i think you're going to be ok. matt, thank you. futures up 31 on the s&p, advancing 0.6% or 0.7%. yields open higher by two or three basis points to 1.5360% to kick off the year. kailey: that is right where steve major at hsbc sauce ending the year, so he was right on target, but the bond market unsettling to so many over the year. as for where we are going throughout the day, we will get some economic data. the big one is going to be payrolls friday, but we will get market manufacturing pmi. it could be the lowest since december 2020 or get at 10:00 a.m. eastern time, construction spending is going to be the read for november. we will probably see an uptick

for november, but we have seen recent data including production in november on the housing front and sentiment, so that does post an optimistic some before the read this morning. president biden will be baking -- will be making his returns the white house after spending his holidays in delaware. he's going to be focusing in this first day of the new year on meat prices, and he will be meeting with some family and independent farmers to address that. his fiscal agenda still pacing an uphill battle. jonathan: we will catch up with the team on that a little bit later this hour. as labs italy surging, up 7% in the premarket. tesla -- tesla absolutely surging, up 7% in the premarket.

matt: you can talk about what ian bremmer was talking about, more companies in china. in terms of the economic data, we have the trade balance coming out i believe thursday. it will be interesting to see how much we are selling over there, how much we are importing over here. tesla, bmw, bmw much bigger because i think they're one of the biggest exporters in the u.s. they build the cars in carolina and ship them over to china. jonathan: tesla doing nicely come up 7% or so. through $1100 on tesla. off the back of really strong deliveries numbers. joining us is dan alpert, managing partner of westwood capital. inflation close to 7%. the degree to which you think that comes down through the year ahead. dan: i think it is going to come

down for a bunch of different reasons. at the end of this quarter, supply chain backups are going to look like some thing that has been resolved for some time. the pandemic era of relief to consumers that caused the enormous spike in consumer demand is already petering out. you look at the november data from two weeks ago, you can see it already. the savings rate is below 7%. if you strip out a little bit of additional government transports -- government transfers that occurred to nonprofits for covid related issues, personal income only rose about 0.27%, not the 0.4% that was in the headline. so the gap is widening, that is going to be maintained for a certain amount of time for

people stop spending. a lot of that is going to be reflected over the course of this quarter. they are ramped up, running shifts around the clock sometimes, with the logistics problems erased over the course of this quarter. you will see them continue to produce at those same unit levels, and they will be very price competitive. as ian bremmer was saying on your network, notwithstanding, all of the aggressive tone of the white house, there's not a whole lot of protective stuff in place to prevent those bids from falling in, so i think we will see quite a bit of contraction in inflationary pressures. kailey: you brought up the conversation with ian bremmer. part of that is china's

persistent covid zero policy. do you think that poses an upside threat to inflation, given it could mean factories shutting down, ports shutting down, for the issues? dan: -- further supply chain issues? dan: i think what is interesting, omicron is turning out to not be a huge threat. it is going to cause enormous disruption in these are in hospitality and transportation -- in leisure and hospitality and transportation. nobody is running out to get the disease. but at the end of the day, i think the market is rallying because this is the perception that they are not going to be these lockdowns that resulted from the first several waves of the virus simply because omicron itself is, while massively contagious, not as threatening as a disease. i am no epidemiologist, but i am basing that on what i read. as time goes on, i think we are

going to get a clearer picture of that. by the end of the quarter, we will probably seeing vaccines targeted towards omicron. so the answer by and large, i don't expect the pickup and omicron to really affect factory production coming out of china. a lot of the early stuff we saw in terms of lockdowns out of china was just china learning how to manage the spread of the disease. i think those days are over. matt: dan, thank very much. dan alpert talking to us about his expectations for the economy and the impact of the omicron virus. it is interesting, we are seeing not just omicron is a problem for the airlines, but also the weather, and now you've got the 5g issue. it looks like there's so many possible impacts, and you had

thousands of flights canceled. kailey: it has been a rough holiday season for a lot of travelers. it really started over the christmas weekend. those issues are persisting now into 2022. of course, there is this idea that the new cdc guidance reducing be quarantined time from 10 days down to five will help with some of the workforce issue, getting flight attendance and -- flight attendants and pilots on the planes, but you have to have people wanting to get on the planes on the first place. people aren't really rushing out to get infected. that is really not what people want to do. jonathan: no, but we all want to get back to normal very quickly. have you seen this range? upwards of 5330 on the s&p 500 for the year ahead. morgan stanley down to 4400. these forecasts all over the place. kailey: it really is a

continuation of what we saw, but there seems to be a consensus around the economy, a consensus around earnings growth going forward, and yet there is a big difference between the bulls and the bears. mike wilson of morgan stanley at the low end is really concerned about multiples. that is not actually a concern a lot of people share. jonathan: to bond market is not much of a concern either. if you are tuned in on tv and radio, futures up 29 on the s&p, advancing around 0.6%. your bond market open was delayed given the closure in china -- in japan, rather, and the u.k.. the united states as well. yields up by a couple of basis points, and that has been the issue for me over the last 12 months. where are tenure yields -- where are tenure yields -- where are 10-year gilts? still in and around 1.50%. kailey: it has confounded a lot

of people. what economic data is going to matter to the bond market and to the federal reserve, because we are beating the drum towards the payrolls report on friday, but there has been a clear shift to focusing on inflation and needing to combat that. how much does the labor market data now really matter after that hawkish pivot we saw last month? jonathan: weighing in on that in just a moment will be gene tannuzzo, head of fixed income at columbia threadneedle. looking forward to that conversation. from a beautiful new york city this morning, good morning. a happy new year to you all. we've agreed that we will stop saying happy after today, given that tomorrow is january 4, and matt miller is losing patience, apparently. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden has reaffirmed u.s. support for ukraine's sovereignty in a call with

presidents a lot of your zelensky -- president volodymyr zelensky. sanctions on russian banks and commodity exports are among the measures being discussed. u.s. defense secretary lloyd austin says he plans to quarantine at home for the next five days after testing positive for covid-19. often says his symptoms are mild and that he will attend meetings virtually when possible. he said his last meeting with president biden was back on december 21, more than one week before he started experiencing symptoms. oil analysts expect opec and its partners to boost exports. a bloomberg survey suggests the alliance is likely to proceed with a hike next month of 400,000 barrels a day. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the fact is there is enough worry about inflation, that

inflation print for the month of december has a 7% handle. washington is going to come screeching to a halt. jonathan: washington already has a problem. that was the managing director of capital alpha partners. from new york city, with kailey leinz and matt miller, i'm john barrow. -- i'm john barrow -- i'm jonathan ferro. yields headed north by two basis points on tends to -- on tens to 1.53 43%. crude at $75.75. joining us is jack fitzpatrick of bloomberg government. the white house press briefing has been canceled over bad weather in d.c. just how bad is it? jack: not that bad just yet, but d.c. gets stalled pretty easy. when i was coming over here, there was a little bit of snow sticking.

bad enough so federal workers have the day off, but we do expect the senate to come back in, which can make some news. they've got a vote at 5:30, so hopefully by the end of the day we can get a bit of a joe manchin update or something along those lines. clearly for the white house and executive branch federal workers, it is expected to get bad enough, but it does not look that bad to me, to be honest. kailey: i grew up outside of d.c., and snow used to be closed for the date if -- for the day if you had one inch of snow. you just don't have the infrastructure to deal with it. snow or not, is there a sense of more optimism now than there was three weeks ago, when joe manchin said he was a no on build back better? has anything fundamentally changed? jack: there might be very mild optimism compared to immediately after senator manchin said he was a no on the boat back better bill as it exists. we have heard from democrats across the spectrum saying they want to get something done. per milledge i paul, the top

progressive in the house -- pramila jayapal, the top progressive in the house, said she once to work on something that meets senator manchin's demands on how much is paid for and how much it really costs in the long run. nothing has come together. it is not as if they have a deal in the works right now. their goal is to get something together in the senate, may be by the end of this month, and that could head back to the house. there is a long road ahead, but democrats are not giving up, and there is plenty of news to look for in that regard on a scaled down version of that. their dreams have not died in that sense. kailey: also this week, as they returned to congress, it is approaching the one-year anniversary of january 6 and the insurrection on capitol hill. what is the feel now a year-round? -- a year on? jack: detention is still there -- the tension is still there. they will have an event at the

capitol on the anniversary of january 6. watching the progress the january 6 committee has gone through and the way a number of republicans have really called it legitimate -- called it illegitimate, there is a tension about what we heard about after january 6 that is still there. there's not a lot of faith between the two parties. it is something that democrats want to make sure does not fall by the wayside and is not forgotten, but obviously this has turned a do something that is very partisan that mainstream republicans outside of the liz cheney types don't want to participate in, and it really shows the political divide that you knew was there, but is really probably more stratified now than it was previously. matt: in terms of president biden's focus this week, is it really all about getting joe manchin back on side somehow?

i don't want to say distracted, but is he perhaps going to be spending more of his time on covid as those numbers ramp-up? is he looking at what is going on in colorado after the wildfires there? what is the focus? jack: when it comes to the president's focus, i don't know if you would necessarily say he is distracted, but we have not heard any concrete news about him trying to be more involved right now in the congressional negotiations previously has been. that is really going to be more or less up to chuck schumer, joe manchin, and senate democrats to work out an alternate proposal because clearly, the president cannot just strong-arm senator manchin and get him onboard was something he does not support. matt: i mean, the reason i am thinking about the president talking director with m anchin is because on one of the talk shows, senator manchin said he really had a problem with

white house staff, and made it clear, not with the president himself, but with the staff around the president. to me, that sounds like an invitation or a plea to the president to come talk directly to him rather than have his staffers promises they can't keep. jack: that has been an issue. senator manchin hasn't quite gotten into the details is exactly what he was referring to. for one, the president has really maintained his popularity among democratic lawmakers, if not necessarily the public. it has gone well typically when he has met and talked directly to the lawmakers. but that has not led to breakthroughs. when he has come to congress, they have been appreciative to hear from him, but really, the main sticking points are within congress's own account, what they can get 50 votes for.

the issue is how do they do the math to make sure this adds up to the number that senator manchin is comfortable with. you can have a good talk with the president, and there have been some issues with staff putting out statements, and sometimes the wording of those have rankled senator manchin, but really, talking pleasantly with the president has not broken through the main issues. the issue is how do they get 50 votes in the senate and a majority in the house on $1.75 trillion or less in ways that do not use budgetary gimmicks, including ending things early. jonathan: there's a lot of work to do in d.c. jack fitzpatrick in washington for us. it seems like we are about to get some new guidance, if you listen to dr. fauci over the weekend, around testing to leave isolation. isolation cut down from 10 days to five. dr. fauci flirting with the idea over the weekend that maybe you need to test to exit after that,

and maybe we get news on that in the next couple of days. matt: i think a lot of that has to do with the difference between the pcr tests in the lateral flow tests. if you test with the former, the chances that you continue to test positive are a concern, and you will never get out of quarantine. but if you test with the latter, reportedly that shows your viral load, and it is reduced enough that you will not be transmitting the disease to anyone else wherever you are hold up -- else if you leave wherever you are holed up. the guidance has sometimes been difficult to understand or made no sense at all, so i'm not incredibly optimistic. i think if you just use common sense and stay home until you feel fully recovered and better and ready to face the world, you will be fine. jonathan: the guidance has been fluid. let's put it that way. important headline for the parents of new york city. new york city mayor eric adams,

cummins he made on msnbc a few moment's ago. still to come, more on eurasia's top risks with ian bremmer. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ jonathan: three years of double-digit gains on the s&p 500 in america. take a three year chart and play a game of spot the pandemic. unbelievable. the market advancing 0.6% this morning. outperforming this morning. the small caps up 20, advancing 0.9 percent. that is the equity story. here's the bond market picture. yields pushing higher as we get 2022 underway. on tens, up to 1.53%. let's call it $76 -- let's call

it 0.76%. some people making the call for march, the very end of the first quarter of 2022 in the books for a lot of you out there. finish on this in the fx market. for all the talk of inflation being incredibly high and the federal reserve to make a move, in the ecb on the euro zone, there is the belief from the chief of the ecb that they can sit 2022 out. can they? right now, euro-dollar 1.1351, negative about 0.2%. kailey: is 2023 going to be the year of ecb moves? it is a question christine lagarde has repeatedly said that inflation is just transitory. as we look onto 2022, we are also looking at a year that brings the u.s. midterms, so let's take stock of politics in the u.s.

ian bremmer of eurasia group joining us on the top risks of 2022, and also joining us is -- and former member of congress. we talk about the one-year anniversary of january 6, are we more divided now than we were a year ago. ian: yeah, we have learned literally zero lessons from the election of 2020. that is a serious problem. this was the most dysfunctional and delegitimized election of our lifetime in the united states, and we have done nothing to fix the underlying problems. the republican party is more controlled by president trump today and more republicans believe that the election was stolen today than did on january 6, and the likelihood is overwhelmingly that the republicans are going to take the house. they may take the senate.

they will take it with an underlying message that the election of 2020 was stolen. this is deeply blood problematic -- deeply problematic in probably the most important election of our lives. kailey: the picture ian's painting is of a very politically divided me united states that does not this early -- does not necessarily project a picture of strength to the rest of the world. is the u.s. positioned to be a leader on the global stage? >> not so much. ian has just produced a wonderful report on political risk going around the world, and i have been in europe three times in the past few months, and people there are very worried. you don't see the biden administration delivering on what promised, but they also understand the underlying reason. maybe some of it has to do with the administration, but a big reason is that congress is totally dysfunctional. something that is in the report that got my attention is the comment that the only thing

possibly worse than president trump in reelected is president trump not being reelected. the point of which is underlying lack of confidence in our voting structure. i am listening to all this talk about inflation and whether or not we could pass any form of build back better. i think it is crucial for congress to pass some form of voting rights reform, or else we may be abdicating our democratic voting process and letting elected legislators or appointed electors, elected officials, decide what the vote is after peoples's valid votes are discounted. matt: what example do you mean by that? which direction with this perform go -- this reform go? are you saying congress should pass laws that require you to prove your identity, prove your citizenship, and limit the amount of absentee voting that

could happen so that people on the right have more faith in the system? jane: i want people across the spectrum to have more faith in the system. it is true that in our constitution, the states set the terms of elections, but the federal government and our constitution does preempt certain aspects of this, and it is appropriate, for example, for the federal government to declare voting machines critical infrastructure. it is also appropriate for the federal government to decide what our basic conditions of counting votes. joe manchin, his name comes out every five minutes, has set out the terms he would accept on voting rights, and they seem broadly acceptable. so i think it is crucial for congress to act soon before all of these laws take effect in 19 or 20 states and we end up with a hot mess after november 20,

202 -- after november 2022. matt: let me ask about the international reputation of the u.s. in terms of dependability. was the withdrawal from afghanistan really damaging to the u.s. reputation? ian: the way that the withdrawal was executed was damaging, perhaps most so with america's gulf allies who are going to be affected by the taliban running afghanistan, the refugees, the radicalism, more than anybody else. the emiratis, the saudis, for example. much more broadly, the issue is that of the underlying american political system. that is what is damaging america's ability to be seen as credible going forward. jane hit on this.

we have just had successful elections and some of the world's biggest and richest democracies, in germany, and japan, and canada in the last few months. no problem, no dysfunction, no questions of legitimacy. united states, on the other hand, increasingly has a fundamental structural issue of whether or not the average american believes in its political system, what it stands for, whether the elections are legitimate, whether the two parties are equally legitimate and a representative democracy. these are fundamental and profound issues that are not only not about to be resolved in the midterms, but are very likely to get proximately worse. i agree completely that voting rights is becoming much more important than build back better, but voting rights is not about manchin. voting rights is about houston cinema -- about sinema.

so your baseline when you think about the top risks for 2022 for the united states is probably one of the more negative calls that you have. when i first started this firm in 1998, the united states was never on this list because frankly, the question of american democracy, representative democracy, the question of our institutions was something you could count on. something even our adversaries had to count on, even if they did not like it. that is no longer true, and obviously that is a dominant issue for anyone considering what the state of the world is going to be going forward. jonathan: how do using the rest of the world is going to view this? the number one risk last year at eurasia group was this presidency. now it is the midterms. that's got to be music to the years to the likes of russia, the chinese communist party, who are looking ahead to places like taiwan, looking at ukraine.

what does it mean for their decisions that they make? jane: i don't think they are unhappy to see dysfunction in the united states, and in various ways they are exploiting it. surely russia is. ian's report points out that we should expect more disinformation through social media for 2022. i think that is dead right. on china, china has a lot of its own problems. again, pointed out in the report, but i think since we have made china a focus of our foreign policy and the rhetoric has been pretty harsh, xi jinping is again probably quietly smiling at our dysfunction. what worries me, and afghanistan is emblematic of this, is you may be targeting the right issues, but our execution is poor. leaving afghanistan was a mess, and there was preplanning by the biden administration, but there's all this finger-pointing about we had a hard deadline

that wasn't based on situationally based, and we did not let the military act sooner, and our intel, which was pretty bad, i've heard this from a very important member of the senate, was ignored, etc., because the president decided we had to leave. i am not against any of the military mission, but as the world looked at this and europe felt discounted, nato did not feel fully consulted, there was a huge tail on this that was very negative, and it has hurt us ever since. i don't think we should be abdicating our role as the international global leader. i just wrote a book on this. since the cold war, america has not had a foreign policy strategy for the world, and i think it is long overdue. biden had the beginnings of this, and i salute him for it. it was human rights, working with allies, surging diplomacy,

making foreign policy relevant to americans, average americans. all of these are good things, but now we have to execute. jonathan: when you hear the president say america is back, do you believe him? jane: i want to believe him. europe does not believe him. he came to a g7 meeting a year ago and said america is back, and then the afghanistan to partner happened last summer, and the messaging around the australia nuclear sub deal happened, which even he admits was very caustic. the process somehow does not convey the kind of competence in planning that he should be known for. he was the chairman of the senate foreign relations committee for a long time. he knows everybody.

a lot of them work for him. so just let's hope that 2022 is a better beginning, although it is fraught with this other controversy around build back better, inflation, covid never ending. and as far as i'm concerned, this looming voting rights catastrophe. jonathan: we've got about 90 seconds left. we were going over the top 10 risks from last year. one miss from eurasia group was the belief that energy prices would remain low. one win was turkey. turkey in your top 10 last year. it is in your top 10 again this year. in 60 seconds, why the concern about turkey again this year? ian: inflation spiraling, unemployment really high, and erdogan and his party at record lows right now, and he is not someone oriented towards representative democracy. he is willing to cause lots of repression at home and also be

much more experimental in his foreign policy come with plenty of places he can cause trouble in the region. think about greece and cyprus, syria, libya, nick on a karabakh and azerbaijan. this is a headline for major emerging markets out there, countries a lot of care about. jonathan: yen, wonderful. our congratulations to you and the team on another fantastic piece of work to kick off the new year. ian bremmer of eurasia, and jane harman of the wilson center. thank u.s. well. futures up 29, advancing 0.6%. heard on radio, seen on tv as we kick off a new trading year, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> i think we are going to see less returns when it comes to developed markets.

i think we are going to see more the convergence of asset classes. that typically is the case when we enter a slowdown phase. jonathan: the year ahead with christina hooper there, the global market strategist at invesco, after the year behind us delivers a year of massive u.s. outperformance and a 20% gain on the s&p 500. futures up 25 on the s&p, advancing about 0.5%. you would's advancing on tens to 1.5291%. on twos at 76 basis points, basically the highs of the last 12 months, anticipating a move from the federal reserve. crude $75.48. matt miller, i mentioned at the top of the hour the week ahead. ism, adp, pmi's, fed minutes, initial jobless claims, payrolls friday. just an unbelievable week ahead to kick off 22. matt: yes, and trade balance.

the interesting thing is going to be how much of this data has a bearing on the march meeting. you were talking last week about the fact that governor waller says march is live. does that mean that we could actually see rate movement in march, or does it just mean that we are going to get the details on sequencing that we all want to know? are they going to finish the taper by then? what does it mean if march is live? march is starting to feel closer and closer. jonathan: i don't know if you know this, but matt miller is moving. you might have heard a few times if you have been following this program over the last week or so. don't worry, we've got that in the diary, too. matt: thank goodness. it is noted. jonathan: looking to the year ahead, kriti gupta joining us with her chart of the day. kailey: we are looking --kriti: we are looking to the year ahead, but some of the same

risks persist. remember when we were dealing with that trade war with china? i've got news, it is not over. when you look at the stock market, it kind of feels like it is. my chart of the day looks like at the -- looks at the goldman index. the chart you need to know is how it compares to the s&p 500. how are those china exposed stocks doing relative to the broader index? since 2018, the line pretty much goes down and down until you hit that crash in march 2020, in which case those china exposed stocks outperformed the market through 2021. the biggest question is why is it doing that, even though used to have those tariffs in place? i believe we are looking at 20% tariffs on both sides, which absorb 90% of the cost, and yet the stock market looks right through that. i found it kind of funny. kailey: and why are they doing that at a time when china is cracking down hard on many

industries? the adrs have performed very poorly over the last six months and change. kailey: the chinese adrs come and you have the company is looking at supply chain concerns. a lot of the companies are now, as a function of the trade war, looking more at shortening supply chains, pulling them away from china and in the face of these supply chain concerns, and a zero covid policy which continues to shut down ports on the coast of china, you start to see a lot of these companies in corporate america say maybe we should bring supply chain closer to us, bring that production capacity onto the mystic soil or perhaps even in canada and mexico. those are some of the moves you are seeing take place among toymakers or other major production lines. the biggest question is why doesn't that reflect in the stock price. as we heard from ian bremmer and your other guests on the show, 2022 is going to be wrought with geopolitical risk. does the stock market start to

reflect that, even though a lot of those concerns persist? matt: when isn't it, right? it is always wrought with geopolitical risk. i like to try and get back to basics and see what earnings forecasts are, and especially, i know i have been hammering on about this, what multiples investors are willing to pay for those earnings because i think that is the biggest key, other than dividends and buybacks. do we expect 240 in terms of s&p 500 earnings in 2022? kriti: i think you are 100% right. if anything, it shows you there is going to be a fundamental return to the stock market. arguably you are already seeing that in the gains for 2021. when you talk about the multiples they are really trading at, perhaps these extreme valuations, perhaps that is the new normal. why not now as we enter this new

economic cycle? jonathan: thank you. much more through the year on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. help me out with the american football, the nfl. i wasn't the only one that watched the jets yesterday, and for the jets fans out there, that was pretty brutal. i can to be the only one worried about antonio brown. that was concerning, the way he walked off that field yesterday. matt: i've got to say, i love football, and especially college football, but i am willing to watch pretty much any football that is on. still, i am not the expert of the three of us here on the nfl. kailey leinz knows more about american football then probably anybody else on bloomberg television, so you should direct your questions on football to her. jonathan: i did name check you both. what happened yesterday afternoon? kailey: i am not sure any of us know what really happened. to see him strip off his jersey on the sidelines, walk across

the end zone shirtless into the locker room in the middle of the game, i don't think anyone knew what had happened there. i think you are right to voice some concern. note the response from the bucs has been he is no longer a number of this team, but i think we will see how that evolves. tom brady probably not thrilled. jonathan: did you see the tom brady interview after the game? he talked about showing him compassion and the importance of friendship. i thought it was pretty interesting, actually. maybe a little bit of insight into what was going on behind the scenes. kailey: and of course, brady was one of the driving forces behind getting antonio brown to the team, so there definitely is a relationship there, but that may indicate there was something else going on behind the scenes that none of us were privy to until we saw that go down . jonathan: allegations of a fake vaccine card.

what a couple of weeks for antonio brown. mohamed el-erian, i'm sorry. futures up seven on the s&p, advancing 0.6%. yields higher by a couple of basis to 1.326%. in and around 1.50%. matt: it is unbelievable that we are still hovering around these levels and not making any big moves. i was looking at the 10 year yield over the last couple of months. we have been here for a while in this general area. if you expect inflation to be fought by the fed in terms of a live meeting in march, why would you want to be buying these bonds? it just doesn't make any sense. i know people are letting go of them today, which is why the errors are up and read, but it still seems to be a band that you want to get out of. jonathan: tenure yields last year were up 60 basis points, but it felt like they were much lower given where inflation came

in. your tenure right now, 1.5343%. with the brilliant kailey leinz, the questionable matt miller, i'm jonathan ferro. on radio and tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> the covid shock itself was extremely narrow and severe, and the policy set wasn't readily widespread. >> i would not be surprised if you see a 7% handle in terms of the overall rate of cpi inflation. >> inflation is probably a concern for markets as we move into 2022. >> the fed has pivoted, but it hasn't really done anything. >> what long-term treasury yields are telling us is that the fed cannot hike that much. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: hitting the ground running.

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