♪ man us: good morning. is it daybreak europe the stories that set the agenda. u.s. stocks hate record as 10-year treasury see the trading year since twine as u.s. records a million covid cases in a single day.

balancing act opec meets today but the cartel set to announce another boost in output. plus, elizabeth holmes is con convict after defrauding theranos investors. she face 20 years in prison. -- a very good morning, din. we have breaking news coming from my part of the would the uae is set to face a gray listing, dani but the finance watchdogs so this is a breaking news headline for the u.a.e. this isn't going to go down well the u.e.a. is taking the issue seriously, very seriously action top official says. so what you have here, dain is an increased wrist of being play placed in the global watchdog list for companies that will be on oversight for mainlandering and terrorist financing after a

recent government push to stamp out ellis it transactions. so this is the red headline that we have here, dain. dani: the um a.e. is the financial hub there. but manus in the rest of the world, it's all about bonds, isn't it? manus: i mean, just look at this eruption, it's a face in and the fed has been challenged. you look at the spike in the tens and you're looking at the worst start to trading since twine so the question is this, are you going to go get a nike swish from the fed? good morning. >> good morning. even though we are seeing three weights priced in, it's still a very loose financial condition and because of that, it seems like the yield did not upset the apple cart. i meant that literally. we had apple touch $3 trillion in valuation. you had the vick under 17.

those la adding $750 billion in market cap. s&p 500 at and all-time record. all those superlatives are piling up b, but when they pile out the doubters creep in. manus: what can be thrown at you that's above average spanner? when it comes to the market. byron and dennis gaarmin was on the radio yesterday. you can get a one clip 50 hike from the fed. that is a risk. but it's byron wing. 2.75% is the surprise. surprises is something ha the average trader in the street doesn't think could happen. 2.57%. a lot to get you there, danny? dani: we are 1.6% on your tenure yield. we've been talk about the worst

start to tenures since twine. we are unchanged a in the moment so we are not getting that call from gartman. you're looking at similar gains in european futures as well yen at 2017 low. we're going to have juliet saly touch on this in a bit. we will look at brent crude just above $79 a barret >> looks like they're going to take the 470,000 barrels that we were talk about. more than a mill won people in the u.s. are diagnoseed with covid-19 on monday. it's a record number of case it's the highest figure recorded by any country for a single day by a large margin. let's bring in tim low assessing the data. it's a mind-blowing number. but is that even the full -- the full scale of what could be present in the united states, tim? tim: yeah, it's truely after two

years of fascinating case numbers around the world to see one million in one country in one day is mind-blowing for a lot of people this a lot of people might think there would be under degrees counting. this does not include a lot of the take home tests that a lot of people are using and using it decision based on the results of that. and that is, you know, because people with omicron action silver lining here is that the -- for most people the disease is proven to be milder. some people are testing positive and not feeling that bad. >> right. right. we'll take any silver lining we can get to oil, opec will be getting more halted production. today it's a joy small with us.

is it going to be that 400,000 barrel hike that we should be looking at for today? manus: let's get audio track there had with -- with -- with -- with paul. oh, the joys of live tv. nowers she's a veteran of live tv that won't go wrong. let's get to jules. she's been all over dollar yen and evergrand e? >> china's market aren't little bit of pressure as we can see the concerns of omicron and the pboc draining from the system raising a few concerns too. that's the overall gains on what is essentially first trading day for the year for a number of these markets but australia's market look like it could hit a record. and as dain mentioned dollar y

nerves with the yen at five-year low boosting the nikkei that is up by 2.4%. let's look at evergrande after the big plunge yesterday and the halt in concerns or with concerns the demolition of 39 of its provinces properties. you do have a rebound coming in on evergrande but we saw it jump by about 10% of a lot of analysts telling bloomberg this is short coverings. don't think what that what we saw yesterday expect a lot more volatility in this indebted developer, manus and dani. dani: july yet saly. i think i might have jinx myself by saying what a joy it is to have you in london. >> hi, dani. >> what are we expecting? >> trader are expecting a smooth and short meeting today this afternoon. as you said opec plus, is

expected to agree to raise crude output by 400,000 barrel as day and in february so continue the strategy that it's had for the last several months now. manus: paul, let's see what they're brave enough to do. our team leaders, paul wallace on his world wind tonight federal jury convicted holmes of four out of the 11 counts that she face. bruce, the background what exactly did the jury find her guilty of? bruce: this is a company, of course, that was founded in 2003 with the promise that they were going to be able to deliver hundreds of tests -- different tests, cheaper, faster with

better -- better reliabilities than traditional tests. that fell apart t we had a three-month trial. and that -- during the trial we saw testimony from people like james mattis who was trump's first secretary of defense and people like that who testified that holmes had misled them the jury believed them to some extent. they found found her guilty on four counts of conspiracy and wire fraud. they found her not guilty on three other counts and they deadlocked on three counts. >> all right so what happens next, bruce? bruce: what happen next, she's not in jail. the judge has released her on bond. the prosecution has proposed a meeting next week. the defense has not objected to that. so we'll see where things go. there are those three counts that the jury deadlocked on. and so the u.s. attorney does have the option of having

another trial on those. the attorney -- the u.s. attorney's office has not yet comment on whether they're going to go ahead with that. in aaddition to all of this, holmes faces additional time in court. in arizona there's a civil that's brought by customers alleging that they were fraud. so there's a lot more legal action for her lawyers coming up. >> a saga that's been extremely interesting to follow. bruce, thank you so much as always. that's bruce einhorn. let's get back to juliet saly. hi, jules. juliet: bloomberg has been told that the white house is likely to nominate phillip jefferson for a seat on the fed board of governors. he would be the fourth black man to hold a position in the central bank's 100-year history. he is an economic es profess or in north carolina and his work as a fed twice before. hong kong is to require female

have that's one covid-19 vaccine shot to enter restaurants in public ledger facilities from late february. the government is pushing back its plans until after the lunar new year holidays to allow businesses to prepare and to give the city time to roll out the vaccines to the one million or so people still with the first dose. u.s. regulators have approved the pfizer boosters shot widening access. the f.d.a. will allow a third shot for immune compromised children as young as 5 the u.s. has seen an increase in hospital admissions with children rising more than 500 a day. bridgewater associates have named two c.e.o.s to replace david mccormick as he explores a senate run. nir bra dea and mark bertolin

will be the c.e.o.'s. bloomberg powered by more than 100 journalist and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: jules in singapore. treasury use. we take a look at the moves in the bond market. a bruising 2021. more to come. >> plus, we're going to be looking at oil. we're going to be joined by the head of european oil and gas research at morgan stanley and the opec plus, meeting coming up. this is bloomberg.

♪ dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak. u.s. treasury yields have surged led by 10-year yields jumping as much as 13 basis points.

it successed 1.6% for the first time since omicron emerged in november. that also means in the tenure notices are having their worst start of the year in decades. joining us is janet moody. janet, happy new year to you as well. can equity markets remain unspoiled by this marked higher in yields? janet: hi, good morning. happy new year. dani, thanks for having me it is what we think. we have be pro risk for pretty much throughout 2021. primarily because of economic assessment. we are currently in the mid cycle face of the business cycle. we are likely to see a slow growth of a very strong case last year. but still it's going to be very supportive for risk asset. with bond yields, it's going to

heighten the policy but we saw inflation .8% at the end of the last year and is it likely to moderate towards more like 3% by the end of the year. and as a result, we feel that the fed is able to able dial back some of its hawkish load toward the end of the year we don't think that the volume will rise so much to the extend that it will shock the market or will deter the equity well. manus: people say it's about embrace risk. omicron is less viralent. this is about strongest more rapid growth and perhaps a little bit faster inflation. let's focus on the growth narrative. 27% on the s&p 500 last year. people have said to me, look, it's not going to be achievable again that level of double digit growth where is the dominant exposure for you? and what kind of equity returns

do you expect this year? >> we continue to like equity. we think a long with a lot of consent that the very strong equity returns -- unlikely of a repeat this year because a lot of the very supportive stories like liquidity, it probably passed the peak already so what we're looking for is modest gain of height and good digit. we still like the u.s. it's still our favorite region. we are constantly assessing these by the way as we -- as we progress throughout the year it has worked pretty well for us. and we don't think currently that that position has changed or the backdrop as changed. so u.s. formality is still our favorite. we think that our growth will perform well among slightly higher bond yields, the environment and slower growth rate environment. and we like europe and uk as well. it has done very well.

it continues and the formality likes to develop economies more. we prefer the u.s. and the european for that kind of exposure. dani: if we can dig into that a little bit more. you're talk about the growth year stocks and the cyclical stocks. i was talking to lowery arv esino, she said that we should will booking at those more. would you be bottom feeting for the more unloved equitys in the u.s.? janet: i'm not sure about that because what we have seen rerecently that some of the most speculative, most profitable stuff has done pretty poorly. those needs a supportive liquidity environment and very strong growth and we have passed that already. i'll be cautious in buying those

stocks at the moment. we actually have -- you know, going 2022. we still like growth, we still like, you know, those u.s. -- u.s. victor -- we have a equal buy formality, we are moving to a more mature stage of the business cycle. and we just -- you know, we don't want a risk at this point. manus: what risk would you like to take in asia? we saw evergrande action daily story of slaughter and that feast within some of the property developers do you think 2022, the landscape is going to become more of an equitable land jay: you can think about taking new risk in tech and developers in some of those higher risk areas in china? let's start there in terms of the asia exposure.

>> we don't think it is the moment yet. after the correction last year in the chinese market we have been holding out our current position. i feel a lot of uncertainty growth concerns and we don't think that the regulatory is over yet. there may be surprises around the corner we don't like that uncertainty and i think a tiny risk is actually one of the top risk for 2022, primarily because of the covid zero strategy. and the other economies develop economies actually we are seeing the end of the tunnel. china seems be stuck in a space where it is -- it is pretty much not open to the world. and it's fairly restricting people's mobility just because of a small outbreak. it is really one of the biggest risk and of course there,'s a property sector action slowdown

and it was seen today how drastic the measures can be with the chinese authorities ordering some demolition of some 39 markets some of we are not adding yet. i think we will continually assess the situation. i think liquid think be important support for chinese equities. but i don't think we're seeing that huge -- huge support yet. it is just incremental. it is just to stabilize -- we're not particularly excited about it. we'll see how it goes. but we're constantly assessing the situation. >> thank you very much for being with us. janet mui, the head of market analysis at brewin dolphin. valuations sore after a pandemic fuel the boom. we take a look the magic number the power of three. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> 2022 -- >> 2022 -- >> kicking off 2022- >> happy new year >> the problem is going to be the story of 20 it's 1. >> same questions and concerns -- >> because we have inflation. >> market should be worried about it. >> will it come down fast enough to prevent the fed for going for a rate hike? >> if the inflation superoverheats it's going to force the fed's hands. >> very, very critical for the market next year r. we've had three years in a row for zero. >> make sure you have a flexible mind r. humility is very critical. manus: that's a short clip from the bloomberg guests about 2022. it's interesting.

i was reading when you read the stock rap, it's got the almanac and they talk about three things that can help us rally the santa claus rally. the first five days of the year and the whole january barometer. but this is the first full day everyone is coming back to work at home in london. it's the first full day back at school so to speak. >> yeah, exactly. i was thinking the same thing. we didn't have european markets hitting all-time highs yesterday. but of course, the uk was off line. when the u.s. market hit and all-time high it was helped by the mega cap stocks. it was apple. it was tesla. it was those that take up a larger portion of the s&p 500 thrusting it higher. >> yeah, i mean, there are stocks that rip up the top 20%. i think 20% of last year's performance was driven by am. let's have a look at this. because this gives you a sense. $3 trillion they kissed it and said tada. it came back off that. but when you look at that kind of momentum, what is it,

newton's law does not apply. so look, dain, the question is this -- by the way dan, look, i've got a new iphone. the joke is this. it's got a great lens. i look 10 years younger. the camera on this thing is brilment and i didn't even get pro version. -- brilliant. and i didn't even get the pro version. dani: you don't need it, manus. you have tesla adding $144 billion in market cap yesterday as well. you know, even though we had yields move way higher, these are stocks that you think high valuations. they didn't -- wouldn't do well when you have that rate higher in rates. yet you do. the party has not been spoiled. >> no, it hasn't. my guest said three rake hikes

that 3.5% is that going see the equity rally? and the answer to that from sandy charter was probably not. but you know, i think there's a couple of things we both looked at it. one was the guardman letter. guardman is calling about a 15% drop potentially in stocks. you think there's going to be a slow laborious decline. that's quite contrarian for what people have told us over the past few days, is it? d arrest ni: there's really an interesting boom opinion piece talk about apple that this is a stock that will not do well if inflation bites. manus that amount you paid for your iphone it's higher for most other products. how much room do they have to continue to raise prices? >> can i just say, i would like somebody from apple to call because the battery -- it's two

days old. and the battery is not doing its job. i know. complaints. i'm one of those customers. i'm on the phone. dani: we're going to talk opec every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.

>> morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." u.s. stocks had a record as 10 year treasuries see their worst start to a year since 2009 as the u.s. records a million covid cases in a single day. balancing act. opec-plus meets today with the

cartel set for another boost to output. elizabeth holmes is convicted of defrauding thier nose investors. -- theranos investors. yields lurching higher. equities unbothered. the vix below 17. quite the risk friendly environment despite the risk we had in 2021 sticking around this year. manus: what else are you going to need to propel them forward? earnings, buybacks, and build back better. don't forget the fiscal laps before christmas could be an element we have not spent time talking about. is this something you are going to need to give it the kicker into the rest of the year? stocks are up. dollar-yen on a five year low. you are seeing a conundrum of

divergence in rates between dollar-yen, dollar higher. you are looking at a five-year low on the end. stocks, record after record in the s&p 500 driven predominantly by technology. apple, tesla, roaring higher, and oil markets are up by 0.8% as we prepare for 400,000 barrels to be added at the opec meeting today. the allies are poised to revive more production. after giving a certain amount of -- i suppose a tighter outlook for the global markets. this was just before christmas they talked about the surplus. the delegate said the alliance is on track to ratify. output revival. do we need it? good morning and happy new year. the debate is this. the surplus is going to be 25% smaller than they told us before christmas. therefore we should be easily

able to take on 400,000 barrels of oil. is that correct? >> i would say so. the oil market is in a relatively strong position. the fact of the matter is that several of us have been mulling these oversupplied quarters -- sort of since the start of last year. we continue to see inventory draws. i think by now we can say we have a relatively good almost real-time picture of global inventories and they continue to draw. perhaps adjust demand is running hotter -- it perhaps suggests demand is running hotter. frankly, if you layer on top of it that they did not cut the last meeting when there was uncertainty about the omicron variant, and since then i think it is fair to say demand on the

back of omicron is turning out to be rather modest, you have the recipe of another month of opec increasing. dani: it does seem like the market is able to look through the omicron impact. we have seen air travel cancellations in the u.s.. do those show up in the demand anywhere? >> that is where theber hits the road on coronavirus. one thing we can track our scheduled flats -- are scheduled flights, commercial flights, and how much jet fuel is embedded over the next couple months, the next couple quarters. this is analysis we can do every day or every week. if you look at the jet fuel amount embedded in commercial flight schedules, the first

quarter they dropped be about 400,000 to 500,000 barrels a day. a 10% impact. that is pretty much the majority of where the pain is felt. a couple hundred thousand barrels a day of jet fuel. if you look at other forms of mobility, the indicators we have our that mobility elsewhere has held off very very strongly. our expectation is that the impact is not spread much beyond aviation. interestingly, the last couple weeks, refining margins have also rallied back. when refining margins are strong, typically that is indicative of relatively healthy demand. i think you are exactly right. jet fuel is where most of the impact is. beyond that, indications that omicron has diminished -- not

diminished demand all that much. manus: we have libya with outages, venezuela doubling their crude exports. there's a couple of elements on the supply side which are going to have to be taken into consideration. getting to the extra 400,000 barrels, are there any concerns for you around libya, around nigeria, around some of the other members that they will be able to make their quotas? >> this is a critical issue. if you look forward across 2022, this will arguably become the critical issue. this issue will probably become more and more serious. look, the practical reality is the oil industry, there are disruptions. political events, weather events, all sorts of reasons why oil sales do not produce what they should.

to manage the experience, we need spare capacity. capacity is dwindling fast. estimates vary widely. you will hear different numbers from different people. very broadly at the start of 2021, we had something like 6.7 to 7 billion as sustainable spare capacity. that has diminished throughout 2021. it is running at 3.4 to 4 million barrels. if opec does half of what it says it will do during the course of 2022, ad 400,000 barrels a day for every month until september, if they only do half of that, sometime in the second half, capacity will fall below 200 barrels a day. these are very low levels of spare capacity. at the moment, if libya is out

for a bit or there is still some margin in the system to absorb that, but you start to think about spare capacity dropping, the markets will think very differently and that will be a very tight market indeed. dani: you are expecting prices to be supportive. how high could oil prices get this year? >> that is the billion dollar question, understating even. look at the natural gas market in europe. for short periods of time, prices can be quite volatile. $90 by the third quarter is a level at which you start to see evidence of more meaningful demand erosion. we have strong economic stimulus. we have above consensus gdp forecast. we are optimistic on that. there is an oil price at which it starts impact, where the marginal buyer might not be able

to afford the large barrel because of price. the answer to that question, to the question what is the price at which the marginal barrel will not be -- that underpins our forecast for the year. we put it at $90, but it is not easy analysis. manus: you are going to make a few people smile in regards to budgets and breakevens. we are showing the gas prices here, european natural gas prices jumps 20% yesterday. i was extolling the 50% implosion of the previous nine sessions. this is a wild ride in gas, isn't it? we understand the spike comes on a cap from russia, supply into europe. talk me through your thinking on this supply bottleneck. a flotilla is on its way. what happens next for europe?

>> these gas prices in europe are beyond anything even a couple months ago we think would be possible. they highlight how little margin of safety there is in the system. look, it all depends i would say on two things, one of which is whether -- this is always the case in the natural gas market, the weather, and how much will be coming from russia. our base case expectation is that ultimately gas prices will converge back to a level in the mid teens on the expectation that the weather will turn out to be fairly normal and that more russian gas will be forthcoming. the route to that sort of new stable outcome is turning out to be rather volatile and the

underlying factors are hard to forecast, so us ending up in a situation we have now seen twice before over this winter period so far should not be excluded. if you look where gas prices are in the united states versus europe, you see there is a factor of 8, 9, 10 times difference, plus gas prices in the u.s. are more stable. in europe they are turning out to be far more volatile. you have to feel for anybody in europe who runs an industrial company dealing with gas prices. dani: to that point, apologies for interrupting you, but i wonder if you are a big producer in europe, at what point do you see demand destruction because of high prices? >> look, again, the question is

what is the demand erosion price? it is not only very relevant in oil, it is very relevant in european cash. in the longest of examples, aluminum smelters have been shut down. we have 40 or 50 examples basically since october. we have been seeing evidence. the prices we saw when those examples came in were easily in the $30 type price range. those types of prices are -- dani: good to have you on the program. everything on his call from oil at $90, opec, and natural gas. juliette saly is with us in singapore. >> elizabeth holmes has been

found guilty of criminal fraud over the collapse of her $9 billion blood testing company. a u.s. federal jury convicted holmes on four of the 11 counts she had been charged with. she faces up to 20 years in prison. she is expected to appeal her conviction and any sentence she gets. credit suisse says it is laying off 69 employees in new york according to a company filing for job cuts. the move comes in the wake of the rk goes collapse which cost -- archegos collapse which cost credit suisse. the washington post reports that today is the end of life date for the blackberry. the company is warning devices running on the blackberry operating system will not reliably function, be able to send text messages, or dial emergency services.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: coming up, the new ceos have been named at the world's biggest hedge fund. david mccormick stepping down from bridgewater. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." to bridgewater associates. they have named a new co. chief executive officers, the world's biggest hedge fund. a new chapter for the storied firm. david mccormick steps down.

he seeks a career in politics. simone foxman is tracking the story. surprising that two people are named co-heads. i have seen this many many times. do you think it will work? >> it is not the first time bridgewater has had co-ceos. it has worked in the past. frankly, the firm has had a lot of issues. moving the succession plan away from ray dalio as he steps back from the firm onto the third phase of his life, that has been going on for many, many years. mccormick, for what it is worth, was named one of the people who were a likely good candidate for the pennsylvania race, very good for republicans in maintaining their presence in the senate. what is interesting for me about this new co-ceo relationship is that you have this young guy who has been at the firm for quite a

while and has really grown with the firm, this is bar dea, and you also have a former aetna ceo in bertolini. he is not somebody you would expect to find at a hedge fund, though he has been on the operational board. a different flavor for a firm that is known for a culture of -- a closed culture, radical transparency and the like. dani: i was going to ask. anyone who has followed your career knows ray dalio and bridgewater have a specific culture. are we expecting that they carry on the legacy of this culture? >> this culture has been chipped away at for a long time. to a certain extent, bar dea having come from within the firm may be continuing that.

on the other hand, it is not just the radical transparency, but a culture that is very controversial and caused problems to the firm in the past. there have been lawsuits about discrimination within the firm. we have seen the firm at times at pressure kind of cut staff that were focused on this. it is not necessarily something investors are super excited about anymore. at one point it had this legendary sort of appeal and now we are seeing investors say i want governance that is esg focused. i want to see exactly how you are doing that. frankly, it is a time when investors have not been kind to bridgewater, although it did see gains of 8.1% last year after a substantial loss in 2020. dani: simone, thank you so much.

coming up, a wall of maturing debt and a surge in seasonal demand for cash is set to test china's financial markets. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> chinese exports are still supportive. the most important driver of chinese exports is external demand. if you look at our global gdp forecast, 4.4%, which is lower than what we saw last year around 6% of global growth, but still higher than a typical 3% global growth. as long as the global demand is strong, that would support chinese equities -- chinese

exports. we are expecting exports in nominal u.s. dollar terms to increase 12% this year. >> what is the endgame policymakers want? what is the ultimate goal they want to achieve? >> at a very high level, the repeated phrase, if you look underneath the fundamental demand for housing going forward, based on china's urbanization rate, china's demographic trend, we can estimate that in the 2010s, every year china was building many units of apartments, and fast-forward to 2050, we estimate you only need to build 6 million per year. if you are thinking ahead and taking a long view, how should we manage the sector, and you

know the fundamental demand, right now there is still fundamental demand, but the next few decades we are going to see demand falling. you have to do something to control so you know if fundamentals are deteriorating, you know not to have a huge volatility factor you have to do something today. the long-term goal is to manage that. dani: let's bring in our chief asia economics correspondent and a current. we had a note out from goldman this morning saying that china is likely to keep its border curbed through most of 2022. how consensus is that call? >> it certainly is a view china will not be opening anytime soon. the winter olympics are coming up.

china does not want a public health crisis around that. later in the year you have the all-important party congress. add to that mix of course questions over the effectiveness of china's own homegrown vaccines against the virus and we could see that china is sticking with his zero covid approach. the most severe lockdown since the crisis started in wuhan. there are reasons on china's political economy side to want to keep the border shut. but of course, it is not a sustainable approach. there are questions about the impact it will have. manus: we have had some manufacturing data from tatian. that was more bullish than

people anticipated. is it recovery rolling over inflation? >> we had two readings in the manufacturing side, the official and the tie shannon read. the pmi went back into positive territory. commenters are taking that as a sign that the manufacturing sector is doing that -- is doing ok. there is no doubt both pmi's .2 stabilization. there are hints of weakness on the employment side in the pmi indexes. business confidence is somewhat weaker. certainly that is surrounding the broader covid zero approach as well. be it for production or transportation, when the authorities sweep in and try to

contain the virus. stabilization, but not yet -- manus: thank you very much. enda curran setting the agenda. day one back together. "bloomberg daybreak: europe -- "bloomberg markets europe" is up next. ♪

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anna: good morning. mark cudmore joins us from singapore to take us through all the market action this hour. the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are your top stories. the u.s. hits a record one million virus cases in a single day, the most of any country since the pandemic began. european futures gain after u.s.