we are still in a very accommodative place. there is a lot of cash from the global central bank. >> we are still significantly underestimating the earnings story. i think the rally continues. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." >> the band is backed about other -- back together kind of. live on tv and radio. i'm jonathan ferro usually surrounded by tom keene and lisa abramowicz. welcome back. tom: it's good to be back and lisa is healthy as well. what i can say is we have had a great team around us at bloomberg. our control people, we are doing what everybody watching worldwide is doing which is looking at the facts of this illness and pandemic and you

make it up as you go. the team finally back together. jonathan: you both had mild cases and some good news, you are getting better. lisa: we do not know what's going to happen until -- trying to make it work. i do wonder when do we end and what's being priced into the market. jonathan: you are both touching on the difficulty at the moment. how do we get back to work, right now this market is operating on the assumption things get a whole lot better quickly. tom: no question about it. the market is speaking volumes. what i'm watching, i can't believe i'm saying this. this is a pro pair. australia as compared to the japanese yen and that says boom

economy. jonathan: lease i would look to the bond market, of the worst start for a 10 year treasury back to 2009. the bloomberg team putting together that. lisa: very close to highest level since the pandemic. it feels like the beginning of 2020 in many different ways. how much does omicron accelerate inflation and fed rate hikes? how much is that now the commonplace narrative. jonathan: welcome back. futures up 19 on the s&p bouncing back again. yields are pushing higher in yesterday session. in the fx market a very tiny break at one: third -- 1.13. 76-70 -- 76.70.

>> i see brent crude really blastoff. there's all sorts of other indicators. lead indicators was i missed lisa's reporting's on auctions. the fact is the bond market again correlates with all these worries we have. with ian bremmer. and the answer is you know what, the market does not care. >> i do know there's a ton of economic data around the corner. lisa: saving the auctions for later in the week. tom keene goes off or three weeks and gets excited about auctions. today opec-plus meeting to assess oil production and their output expected to increase which would bring about two thirds of the output back online

since 2020. they see the surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day, 25 percent smaller than what they estimated about a month ago. they are calibrating the lack of demand as a result of omicron. oil prices rebounded back to where they were in november. today the technology conference back in person through january 8. a fantastic real-time assessment of how realistic in person events are based on our current situation i am not personally optimistic. they say the cancellations amounted to 7% of the exhibit floor even as t-mobile, meta, twitter and amazon cancel some appearances. isn manufacturing, a very curious to see how omicron

affects manufacturing. job openings are set to surge to an all-time high. you look at the number of job openings per the unemployed. they have outstripped it and are getting close to nearly two openings for each person is unemployed. is it going to be the fact people will start depleting savings? jonathan: in the week ahead it's fascinating as well. into tomorrow we have fed minutes and then later in the week the adp report and onto payrolls this friday. we kick things off with the head of america's research and fx strategy at hsbc. not the outlook for the year ahead alone i want to think about the body of work you've done over the past several years. this refusal of you and the team over the years to join the dollar doom crew.

what has been guiding you as far as that's been concerned? >> i guess we've simply fallen into the cyclical camp at hsbc. that's where we are most comfortable with big dollar bear stories. these simply have not got traction heard -- attraction. the key model if you'd like for effect has been yields just in the last 24 hours with those moving in the same direction. i think that's the overarching issue. what is your framework. if you have the right framework generally at something appropriate by way of a forecast. >> what's so important for me is the litmus paper clearly is japanese yen. explain to our audience what is

the significance of this new about of weaker yen? daragh: it's a very unique narrative of a poignant perspective on omicron. we were truly nervous about global activity. we would also be buying the u.s. dollar. i think that's why you are right to say on the yen as a parameter for the move. it's nice things are moving in the same direction in terms of narrative for the risk on mood and higher u.s. equities in the land of fx multi-yen. there was a local story which is there was an expectation that this was among the more dovish of the central banks which might have to join the less dovish

narrative. that could provide some upsides beyond that risk metric. lisa: you are saying you like the dollar and think there's upside. we are pricing in three rate hikes. where does this come from here? daragh: i do like the dollar. this is the issue. there is a lot on the price. i think a key for the u.s. dollar strained in our view is that the market pricing for the term rate is a five-year one month rate. it is well short of what the fed is suggesting. that's kind of the market perspective and that holds than i think you can get dollar upside. if that begins to change, it might even be higher. and of course that gets you on a

much more bullish camp. that's where i would look for the upside. this is one of modest and begrudging dollar. jonathan: just a final question from me. can you help us understand how the fx market would respond to balance sheet reduction as opposed interest rate hikes from the federal reserve? daragh: i think it's been part of the narrative in many parts of 2021 with changes in balance sheets. i think the markets moved on. we are in the midst of acceleration taper in the u.s., we all have onto when we hike rates first. i'm sure you know assumes we get that first fed hike, how quickly will they hike. the market is always looking for the next.

i think the balance sheet angle for now will be overtaken by the rate. we think that becomes the story december of this year. for now it's all about rates. wonderful as always. a fantastic look ahead. as we think about the year ahead we think increasingly about the sequencing and policy of the federal reserve if they are going to remove this piece by piece. what order do they do that in? tom: it will be interesting to see. we have the january meeting. there are two ideas we got here from that. talks about liking the dollar a little. we got through the holidays and all of that. what i would suggest is we need to pause as we did yesterday with benjamin laidlaw and note 4800 spx today.

we are talking about foreign exchange because we are trying to understand spx futures. jonathan: i want to clarify things quickly. i like lisa and i like tom a little. i like lisa a lot. [laughter] jonathan: if you missed the conversation yesterday, a straight years of double gains. lisa: everybody seems to be bullish, threading a needle. possible acceleration of rate hikes the result of omicron and at the same time you're expecting the s&p to continue its rally potentially even in a double digit year, how do you get these different pieces to move together at a time when there are potential risks and yet everybody is bullish. jonathan: lisa, tom keene, jonathan ferro. futures up 20. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> at&t and verizon say they've agreed to a two week delay on the 5g deployment by u.s. authorities. they proved yesterday to go with her new services. officials fear the 5g signals might interfere with aircraft equipment. united arab emirates on the risk of getting on a list for not doing enough about money laundering and terrorist financing. the financial action task force leaning towards adding the country to its gray list which would be a big step given their position as the main financial hub of the middle east. opec and its allies are poised to ok more production, a greater outlook for global markets. the alliance is on track to boost 400,000 barrels per day.

on monday the group cut estimates. elizabeth holmes is found guilty of criminal fraud for her role in the collapse of her $9 billion blood testing company theranos. she faces up to 20 years in prison but is excited to appeal her conviction. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> when it's needed to do

mandates for certain reasons, let's do so and then come back around. this is the new reality. our city and school system must open. we must remain focused. >> the message from the new york city mayor. good morning. love this tweet, hear me out. abramowitz doesn't get covid, covid gets abramowitz. yields do nothing. crude positive eight, let's call it 9/10 of 1%. that interview with new york city mayor eric adams on this network in the last 24 hours. here's a quote for me, they cannot do their jobs, you cannot run a city like new york on 30%

occupancy buildings. new york city mayor wants to get people back to work. tom: mayor adams gets right into it. what i would suggest in this is so important. lisa and i had it. the answer is all eyes turn to 1600 pennsylvania avenue. and reorder and has spent a lot of time thinking about the -- anne-marie hord turn -- anne-marie has been thinking about the options the president have -- has. what do we need to know about the thinking of the white house this morning on this terrible pandemic? >> the president and vice president will be meeting with their covid white house response team on the heels of that very devastating skyrocket number of a new u.s. global record of one

million cases. that's double the record the united states set just four days ago. this is what the president will be grappling with. on july 4 we declared independence of the united states. his team saying why should we be sending out pretests. it is the third year now we are starting a fresh year and still the pandemic is front and center for the white house. tom: what to me is so important here. lisa has an opinion like mine. john is just the rock of gibraltar. the last number of weeks with transatlantic travel. we are all impressed. what i want to know is the testing. we seem to be short of tests. we put a man on the moon, why can we deliver tests to jonathan ferro to ensure he is healthy. >> the government announced this

in december darting in january they will send home 500 million tests. the criticism the white house faced is why weren't they doing this months ago. over a year ago i was sent a test from the nhs while living in london. many european countries you can go to a pharmacy and get rebates back. it will be sent to your house. the white house has the omicron variant really creeped up on them. but we've been living with this pandemic so why wasn't it done before? they are also working on having more pop-ups for testing but you could see the lines. lines wrapping around the block for people wanting to get tasks. we talk about that number, we should also note some, there's actually likely a lot more. that's likely undetected, the number of people who took add-on tests and did not report them to the federal government. lisa: there's the health concerns and economic policy

concerns and it seems like they are getting conflated with the relaxation of some isolation guidance in the idea of the tony fauci came in over the weekend perhaps throwing in a negative test result on top of that to determine whether somebody is infectious. what's the driving guide for your reporting at the white house about isolation guidelines as a recommendation? >> the white house will point to the cdc and that's where they will take their recommendations when they have a case in the white house. they look to the cdc to decide what they will do. the cdc is saying if you are asymptomatic from the omicron covid right now after five days you are basically released. but as you mentioned, anthony fauci and other officials are talking about potentially having to test in those five days. we are seeing whether or not they will almost backtrack on this isolation and say it's five

days if you test negative. it's incredibly confusing for individuals like yourself that are at home dealing with positive cases. lisa: what about when it comes to taking on more broadly a policy going forward. i keep wondering whether this will be the end of the pandemic and it seems like markets are treating it as such that people will get a certain level of immunity and we will all move on. what is the thinking and washington, d.c. on the beltway. our politicians looking past it or are they freaking out? >> there is a little bit of both. there are politicians who are obviously worried they are still at the moment now we are from the new york governor just yesterday talking about the fact for the most part there are less severe cases, right now new york city hospitals are under a tremendous amount of pressure. he said this was the winter surge we were expecting.

but by and large politicians want to be able to live with it. they need to be able to live with it. eric adams saying you have to make sure you have enough people at work so businesses can continue. right now you will likely see washington, d.c. move on policies that are able to keep people safe but at the same time make sure at some level life is back to normal and you still have the economy open and running. jonathan: our washington correspondent. tom, for many people in the last week or so the messaging from the cdc has been dreadful. let's call it confusing to be kind. it's been all over the place print tom: -- all over the place. tom: we have to be careful because we are dealing with a lot of great scientists.

i'm really hesitant to be critical given the cards they've been dealt, the answer is it doesn't make common sense. the smartest thing i saw was the leader of indiana university who said they went halfway. they have to have the courage to go all the way and that seems to be enhanced and increased testing. jonathan: they cut the isolation from 10 days to five. in the last week the director of the cdc came out and basically said if you had a pcr test after a positive case you could be getting a positive reading for three months so perhaps don't do that. dr. fauci suggesting perhaps we need to consider testing to exit isolation. are you confused? do you understand what the requirements are at the moment? lisa: i understand from each company and what company policies are but understand

state policies are different from federal policies. it's all based on this idea. do they go all the way. at what point do they say we have to live with it, if people get cases they are not can go to the hospital. that's really the sort of unspoken truth.

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jonathan: live from new york city on tv and radio, a good morning to you all. equity futures with a lift up 19 up for tents of 1% on the nasdaq 100. on the russell, the small-cap at 92. your s&p 500 headed back to all-time highs. that's the story stateside. the airlines, this market has moved on. you can talk about cases increasing across europe. look at the airlines on the continent. ryanair up more than 10%. lufthansa up about 4.5%.

it feels like the world is moving on. we can talk about that in the next couple of hours. here's the story in the bond market. the ten-year treasury going all the way back to 2009. everybody here at bloomberg news doing a great job of breaking down bond market action. this morning we settled down. tuesday is of 80 basis points. -- twos short of 80 basis points. tom: the beginning of the year adjustment. yesterday was fabulous. i thought the conversation with elizabeth economy on china was great. we drive forward with that conversation. megan green joins us to give us

a look into 2022. thank you for joining. i want to frame out the many uncertainties we have into the boom economy of the united states of america. greg quotes atlanta gdp now 6% or 7%. buoyant gdp in america. what is your belief in the ability to sustain and surprise a better economy than many people predict? >> on that front i think our conversation around growth and inflation in the u.s. will look fundamentally different in nine months from now. from how it looks right now and from how it looks towards the end of last year's everyone seemed to be jumping down the fed's throat for being behind the ball allowing the economy to overheat, driving up inflation. that could be exacerbated in the short-term because of the omicron variant. supply chain disruptions could

be exacerbated paid over the next six to nine months, a number of risks to growth in the u.s. whereby we will still be growing well above potential growth should look weaker this year than it did last year certainly. one reason is significant physical drive -- fiscal drag. for next year in particular because a lot of build back better is backloaded and not frontloaded. even if we get individual pieces of legislation happening. that will be backloaded. we will see a drag into this year. also a lot of our growth in the second half of last year was driven by inventories work companies were restocking. i think this year we will be d stocking which is a headwind for growth. i think a chinese slowdown at pretty significant risk not

least of all because of zero covid policies. it will be difficult to pull off in the space of more transmissible variants. chinese authorities are pressing on the gas pedal in terms of monetary policy. there is a fundamental commitment to common prosperity. i do not think authorities will fundamentally reverse those two priorities and go ahead and do the same things they have to prop up growth. while i think china will stop slowing down as much as it did last year i think a slower china poses risks for demand not only for the u.s. but also emerging markets. tom: you have an earned expertise. how much right now is jerome powell central banker to the

world and much more specifically, central banker to the new and united kingdom? >> i think jay powell and the rest of the fomc are focused on what's going on domestically. they are not taking it to account much what's happening in europe and also in the u.k.. there will be repercussions so all the fed is tightening in tapering already, the bank of england might also see tightening. the ecb will probably keep policies for much longer. there will be monetary policy divergence for currencies as well. and the eu will be importing its inflationary pressure as fed

policy -- if that policy is tightening faster than need be paid >> there is a night -- then need be. lisa: there's acute -- how much do you buy into this given that it will also likely slow growth on the margins. >> it depends on how long this lasts. if it's going to be a short as the south african data suggests than i do not think the fed will end up accelerating policy in order to address the omicron variant. yesterday i looked at the high-frequency data that comes out looking at bookings, tsa, security screenings and it looks like the impact of omicron on demand has been fairly mild. that being said it's only been dominating for about a month and that was over the holidays. people could have decided we will have a better christmas

than the previous year and ignore this and it could come from now that's yet to be seen. on the inflation front i think the omicron variant will affect supply chains not only because workers won't be able to go to work in the u.s. but also along the supply chain. we seen closures in china with covid policy of the back of the omicron variant. in the first quarter we could see inflation continue to rise. but going beyond that, not only because of the drag stopping slowdown in china that i mentioned. but also statistics, the base effects suggest inflation should be lower as well, supply chain should start to alleviate towards the second half of this year. nine months from now while the fed might be more alarming in the first quarter, the second

half of this year i think inflation, i don't think towards the end of this year that we will continue to be so alarmed about higher inflation. lisa: it does matter where the inflation comes from and there is this idea that it will shift from supply chain disruption to labor market disruption to a wage driven, a driven type of inflation which will be exemplified by the savings rates going down and people having to get a job. how much you expect that to be the dynamic of inflation and encourage the fed to raise rates more heading into year end. >> there are legitimate concerns that higher rents will reset this year to inflation. when it comes to the labor market, i think part of the reason the labor force market is lower now than it was for the

pandemic is a number of hourly service workers are waiting to figure out, they are waiting on the sidelines to figure out how they can get into higher range jobs. at a certain point they will of burned through their savings position and will end up having to jump back into the labor market. debit card data from jp morgan for example suggests that might happen in the next couple of months. so we will wait. even if that does happen even with the omicron variant keeping some people home, others will end up having to jump back into the labor market and that should alleviate some of the labor supply shortages we've had. we've also seen wage hikes over the past years, they are having wage pressures. that is one of the upside risks for the outlook is that we have

had more productivity growth than we expected because companies have taken the opportunity to automate, digitalize and with higher wages you won't drive inflation higher. jonathan: just a note to the control group if you get this to come round, nice and wide. just over here. if people are scared of going into work about getting sick, if you bring the steady round and show what i'm surrounded by, i'm not worried at all. because there's no one here. tom keene is not here. lisa is not here. this will be the issue for a lot of people. even if they want to get people back into the office out easy is that going to be. lisa: how do you get them there? do you take a taxi or subway and when you get them there who will

be there for them to commune with which is the reason goldman sachs backtracked on its get back to the office pledge. it will create an issue for the city. if it is short-lived is basically an extended vacation for a lot of people to stay home with their families with a like. jonathan: you are losing conviction and confidence on that notion. how many times we read that headline, it backtracked. goldman can get people back to work. they keep trying to get people back to work and they will keep trying. they are determined to do it. futures up 18 on the s&p about 4/10 of 1%. a beautiful new york up 4/10 of 1% on the s&p. >> credit suisse says it's laying off 69 employees in new

york according to the company filing. the job cuts will take place in march with them set to wind down by august. the mood comes in the wake of the archegos collapse which cost credit suisse $5.5 billion in losses. bridgewater associates named two co-ceos to replace david mccormick as he steps down for a potential senate run. they will become the joint heads of the world's biggest hedge fund. the white house is set to nominate philip jefferson for a seat on the federal board of governors. the first black man to hold the position in the -- the fourth black man to hold it in the history. more than one million people in the u.s. were diagnosed with covid-19 on monday. the omicron variant continues.

the record was set just four days ago. this came during india's delta surge. hong kong will require people to have at least one covid-19 vaccine shot. that starting in late february. they are pushing back plans until after the lunar new year holiday to allow them to repair and give time to roll out to the one million or so people. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> people who want to avoid the virus at all costs matter what will be stuck at home.

as we get to 2022 and we say look we are going to go back to living our lives, we will figure out our way through this, you have to take calculated risks. jonathan: the vice dean of the bloomberg school of public health -- johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. your equity market up 19. the s&p and on the nasdaq. the nasdaq 100 up 62 advancing. here is a quote in the political nightly addition, the supply chain constraints are not excusable. they are predictable and have been evident months ago. the country and administration needs to come to terms with effective post-pandemic world is not 2019 what a world in which its ever present and the tools, vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, antivirals and rapid tests are provided. that quote from our next guest. tom: some things out front and

center in your next guest leading the charge. even thrilled of the support we have during this pandemic. giving us great leadership. dr. adalja, i want to talk about the mystery of the moment. the ministry for the president of the united states and a mystery for the person who lives three doors down from lisa abramowicz trying to figure out what to do next on covid. what is the timeline forward of this variant? what does the research show of what to expect one week out and three weeks out and a glide path of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. dr. adalja: we have to see if this is bull to the u -- extrapolated for the u.s..

two to three weeks seems to be what it takes for it to peak and then to rapidly decline. not because it's infecting everyone but affecting those who are most susceptible. that's what people are predicting will happen may be the next couple of days to weeks we should be able to see if that pattern holds. it is going to cause a lot of disruption in its wake as many people get infected and we worry about hospitalizations. even if they are lower, at least being a magnitude big enough for some hospitals that are already at capacity to get pushed over the edge. tom: speak of our understanding of its vero lens. 300,000 dead at a given rate or look at a normal flu, speak of

the relevant vero lens. >> probably desk vero lens -- verlyn's desk -- virulence. dr. adalja: because omicron is much more transmissible, even if it has a lower case fatality ratio it infects more people quickly and could be a wash in the end because the attack rate is much higher. what we know is people can be hospitalized last spring -- less. it's still a lot for our system to handle. lisa: how long are people contagious? dr. adalja: most people are contagious for maybe five or so days. that's the average and the median.

some people are less and some are more. that's what we are trying to do with changing the guidelines for isolation. realizing the one-size-fits-all way of thinking about this doesn't actually work. you put precision guidance to see when someone goes negative. we knew that from case-control studies looking at contact tracing seeing when people got infected. lisa: let's say we are moving into an end to make phase of the pandemic which you say probably happened a while back. what should the guy to be for workplaces back into the office and rotation. which aspect, which test should they really be looking at. dr. adalja: organizations could use antigen test because they are trying to make sure there's no transmission in their workplace. trying to exclude people who are

contagious. they could do daily antigen testing and when people get infected may be a five-day default isolation and then have rapid tests to precision guide when that can come off. but if you're using a lot of rapid tests and a fully vaccinated workforce you are in a good position. many organizations of zero tolerance for cases. if you have zero tolerance, there is no path into opening your office because there will always be cases. you have to find a way to go for the sustainable approach. that you know there's going to be cases you can shut down every time like schools and universities had to do the same thing. jonathan: they also have requirements for a pcr tests. can you explain the use of that after someone has been isolating for five days, they had a positive case. is the pcr test useful? dr. adalja: it's the wrong test

to be using. they should be using antigen test. pcr positivity can go on for maybe 12 weeks. but doesn't correlate to anyone's contagiousness. someone who's fully recovered, and contagious. the pcr will continue testing positive. it is going to artificially disrupt your office workplace much more than a few antigen test. that would also be better than using pcr tests. they should not be used for screening individuals. it's giving you the wrong answer. jonathan: thank you sir. we just had carl writing in building on this. the new lockdown, absent work in places where people cannot work from home. he goes on to say there's also

airlines, public transport, construction crews and more. that's why he's marking down expectations for global growth. tom: we will solve this in a uniquely american way. we usually do that with private enterprise. we see the relative success of mario draghi in italy and what you've got in the united kingdom. i'm fascinated by the u.k. story. jonathan: you can feel the effort to slowly try and normalize positive cases. with a big step forward in the last week cutting the isolation down from 10 to five days and then the pushback very quickly. >> how do you create economic policy, a business policy and you have the health science still moving quickly and so many unknowns. jonathan: and then some

backtracking. lisa abramowicz, tom keene. futures up 19. from new york at all-time highs, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> washer 2022 be any different -- why should 2022 be any different from 2021? >> we are still in a very accommodative place. there's a lot of cash from central banks. >> omicron is turning out to not be a huge threat. >> we are still significantly underestimating the earnings story. >> i think the so-called everything rally continues. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the road back to normal is a bit of a bumpy one. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market up 17, advancing 0.3%. tk and bramo back in the seat. tk, we've got to work on getting you back into the office. tom: