tight. >> you're not seeing a wage hike spiral. >> you're getting rate hikes. >> the fed has to do a better job telling us what they are thinking and how they are thinking. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom, jonathan ferro, and katie -- and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance" live. your equity market up 10 on the s&p. up 2/10 of 1%. your job states, close to 450,000. tom: what i would say is that the jobs falls into the backdrop of the market. we have to spend as much on the recalibration of what the markets are doing on yield as to what the jobs will signal to jerome powell. jonathan: 8:30 eastern time,

will it stop the fed from hiking soon? lisa: a lot of people think the headline number is not going to change the equation. they're looking at wage inflation and the participation rate. i'm curious to speak with priya later in this show. we have the fed waiting until 2023 for rate hikes. jonathan: i'm looking for listing to -- as well. we are looking at a 50 as below, looking at 150 -- this is the labor market that is difficult to read. tom: it is tough to read on a month-to-month basis. i would dovetail that immediately into the dispersion of calls on what rates will do. the goldman sachs overnight was extraordinary on this conundrum going back to 2005.

this is a job stay where we have to fold in rate and fed analysis. jonathan: let's get to it. your equity market with a lift on s&p 500, advancing 2/10 of 1%. on the nasdaq -- greater losses going into friday. up 2/10. goldman looking for 2% year-end this year. now 172.31 on the week. up 20 basis points on the week. 12 months ago, the first week of 2021, what move did we have? one just like this one. about 20 basis points. lisa: a lot of people are looking at this and saying if you strip away what we saw in 2020, this looks like a taper tantrum in terms of the scope of the move. how much does this have legs? we keep asking that because as you are saying, when does the fed come in and try to stop the

turmoil and back away from their hawkish positions? 2.5 hours we get into the payrolls report. the unemployment rate projected to fall to 4.1% which would be the lowest going back to march 2020. are we there yet? the mystery persists about the participation rate. why does it remain below where it was pre-pandemic? is it because people have a big cash cushion of savings? this mystery underlines how tight the labor market is. at 10:45 a.m., president biden is giving remarks on the labor market. how does he talk about the gains in the labor market while talking about the need for more stimulus at a time when wages are picking up and inflation is a key concern? at 12:00 p.m., the goldman sachs bond market conundrum, -- is

speaking on this panel. will u.s. growth be higher than the previous decade after the pandemic? this is the key question underlining that flattening yield curve, the idea that the long and is pinned even as we three -- events receipt 3, 4, 5 rate hikes over the coming years priced in at the federal reserve. why is it so flat? is the fed getting ahead of itself or is the bond market giving the wrong single? jonathan: that will be much of the discussion this morning. we have to start with wonderful guest, randall kroszner, the former fed governor. for a lot of people going into the labor market, there try to figure out with the latest variant, it hit economies worldwide, and what it will mean for the labor market report. what is your read on that? what are you expecting? randall: it did not hit in the labor market until late

december. this report were going to here today, it will probably not have much of an impact. tom: i look at chicago and i don't think it is a static analysis, i think of a dynamic analysis. i see in the of static inflation , static yield curve, static fed analysis. explain the dynamics one year out and what you are watching within a dynamic analysis of these moving parts. randall: i think that is the key. it has got to be, where is inflation going, what are people expecting inflation to be and what is the fed talking about with dealing with inflation and what it actually does. the big worry is we get into a situation like in the late 1970's where expectations moved

up because inflation was high. it took a lot of action by the fed to bring that down. so far, we have seen the 10 year rate move up 10 or 20 basis points. that is small potatoes compared with what happened in the past and with inflation being 6% or 7%. as long as the fed and jerome powell and his colleagues can keep dancing so everybody is happy with what they're doing, inflation will not get out of control and we can work through this. that is a very delicate dance. tom: i look at this jobs report today, what will it mean for chairman powell? when you take a given jobs report, it is another event. i don't have that sense. what part of this jobs report will matter to determine. -- will matter to the chairman?

randall: it is not really the headline number because as we discussed, when the number is low -- firms cannot find the employees. we are looking through that particular number, because it is just one of many numbers. we will be looking at things like wage increase and wage inflation. they will be looking at labor force participation. is it coming back or not? i don't think it will come back for older workers. the challenge for younger workers is they have not been coming back. they will be focused -- focusing more on wage inflation instead of the headline number. lisa: one thing that has got the attention of traders is a hawk's position by the federal reserve, more than the expected a few months ago. how far do you expect this hawkish impulse to go given the

destructions we have seen in certain stocks and given the fact that people are recalibrating expectations in the debt market? randall: i think it is good they are recalibrating expectations. they were risking inflation expectations becoming a nightmare. they really needed to act and i was glad they pivoted. i think they're going to stick with that. they see that inflation is very high. i don't see inflation coming down soon. the key impact is going to be a lot of lockdowns in china and asia. they have the zero covid policy. this is super transmissible. fortunately, it does not seem to be deadly it is very transmissible. we see 13 million people lockdown in china, more lockdowns coming. that will tighten supply conditions over the next few months. i think it is going to be a lot

of inflation pressure over the next few months. lisa: at what point does the market selloff get the fed's attention to back away some of their projections for an earlier rate hike and earlier shrinking of the balance sheet? randall: it is not just the level of the stock market. they worry is something becomes disorderly or dysfunctional. we think back to march 2020 when the markets were not working. you could not trade a security. if you cannot trade that, you cannot sell anything else. the markets are liquid. even if there moving down, they will be comfortable with that. they don't want disorderly movement and they don't want a lot of liquidity in cash a lack of liquidity -- a lack of liquidity in the market.

jonathan: randall kroszner, thank you. payrolls reports in about 2.5 hours. the estimate is 450,000. a fantastic lineup of guests in the next hour including priya. this came from a man you know well, he said the following on twitter. "the fed knows they cannot fight inflation with tightening, but they don't want inflation to become an expectation so they will lean hawkish while doing as little active hiking as possible." lisa: this is the reason why so many people are doubtful the fed can follow through with rate hikes in 2022 and tricking the balance sheet. a lot of people are saying you say bigger selloff not only in

bonds, but in these tech stocks if people got conviction the fed would follow through on rhetoric. jonathan: let's talk about the long and. is city calls on goldman -- ucd calls on goldman. -- you see the calls on goldman. is there going to be a limit to this selloff on tens and 30's? is it the terminal rate or something else? lisa: they are saying it could be due to the distortion, some of the demand pressures from overseas. how much is the dynamic right now in the german bond market -- and suddenly inflation rise? jonathan: german bond yields creeping back towards zero. good morning to do all with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. payrolls on this friday, in around 450,000. the jobs numbers, two hours and 20 minutes away.

ritika: speaking of the jobs report, it is out in a few hours and expected to show that payrolls grew by 447,000 in december, more than twice that the november ticket. the unemployment rate is likely to tip 1/10 -- to dip 1/10 of 1%. european central bank officials insist the rise of inflation prices is temporary. they speeded up beyond record levels and rose 5% from a year earlier. that was faster than november's gain and higher than the median estimate. a showdown at the u.s. supreme court, judges will hear arguments on the president's push to vaccinate millions of workers against covid-19. -- australia says novak djokovic is not being held against his will

in a hotel for refugees and asylum seekers. he arrived in melbourne to play in the estrogen open but australian officials -- despite being vaccinated. he is remaining in detention. australia says he can leave anytime. you can add john legend to superstars jumping in on music rights. he has given his recordings to a private company. bruce springsteen sold his entire catalog for millions of dollars. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> is the head going to be hiking aggressively if inflation

is falling around their years halfway through the year? it may be a sort of bungee affect or a reverse bungee on inflation. it has gone up but it is going to come down sharp. that is a forecaster's nightmare. jonathan: steve major at hsbc, what is start to 2022 it has been. i am jonathan ferro. your equity market up 11, 2/10 of 1%. down on the week. yields higher on the week, around 20 basis points. 172 -- the words of the st. louis fed president, he said it would make sense to lift off and if inflation moderates as much as hoped by some forecasters, we would be able to slow down on rates in the second half of the year.

it feels like that is where the fed is. make an early move and then wait and see. tom: i love that. i would say it is too much overthinking. they're going to wait for the data. the most important research, andrew sheets from morgan stanley. he says should we throughout the outlook? the bottom line is does the new year starts march or april when we are further. omicron? jonathan: chairman powell is talking about the middle of the year. there is still a belief for some people at the federal reserve that middle of the year, inflation fades and could fade materially. bringing up the process -- the possibility of a head fake. this is where it gets difficult to forecast. i think that is what he is getting at here, the data warrants the move. let's adjust then what's the data and see how the inflation story evolves through 2022. tom: this is what we will talk

about on the job reports at 8:30. there is a moment at the end of the daniel day-lewis masterpiece "lincoln" where, the jones and says something about the emancipation proclamation. that occurred at a different house of representatives and the president alluded to that yesterday in a chiseled speech partly written by a historian where he spoke of abraham lincoln sitting at desk 191. it was a different speech, whatever your political belief and emily wilkins briefs us. what happens day two after that speech at the biden white house? emily: what the white house is going to pivot to is look at voting rights, really try to make a big push to get legislation done on voting rights for signal to voters this is an issue democrats care about. there does not seem to be a path forward at this point for voting

rights in the senate. they would have to change the rules. your typical corporate, joe manchin and kyrsten sinema, they are not standing for that. you will see president biden go down to georgia next week, a very key state for him when it came to the 2020 election, do a speech there, ask chuck schumer to continue to push to get voting rights done. this is something he will continue to hear. as far as a path forward to legislation, there does not seem to be one unless democrats scale back their ambition. tom: what do republicans do? we saw the image of the congresswoman from wyoming or the former vice president from wyoming along with a republican, empty on that floor. what do the republicans do, spinning this into the weekend and the talk shows?

emily: it was interesting to see the republican messaging. it was not really there. they might've put out some paper statements but they were not specifically in the building or talking to anyone. the party line seems to be while they condone violence, they're not supportive of this push of the voting rights act. they suggest that concerns about january 6 are overblown. who was in the capital yesterday? dick cheney and liz cheney. dick cheney saying the leadership of the republican party is not like who he served with. matt gaetz and others talked about conspiracy theories that have no evidence linked to january 6. the messaging is all over the place. lisa: the conversation has moved

onto the jobs report today. how this dovetails into the legislative agenda and what it does with the federal reserve. why have we not gotten picks for the other fed seats given it is such a pivotal year for monetary policy? emily: that is a big question and it is and across a number of agencies. they are slow on nominations, especially for key positions dealing with health and a time of pandemic. i don't think this is related just to the fed. you are hearing more conversation about certain positions. you heard surber raskin's -- you heard sarah bloom raskin's name being mentioned. to a certain extent, this is something the white house is aware of. i would not say it is only the

federal reserve. jonathan: emily wilkins down in washington, d.c. lisa, what is your interpretation of things question mark do you think it would change anything, these three seats when they are filled? do you think it would change things in any shape or form? lisa: i'm not sure. i think people are trying to game out where the concern is. right now it scenes unlikely there would be radical picks -- it seems unlikely there would be radel -- be radical picks that would keep policy on for longer. when i read analyst notes, they talk about the uncertainty in their strategy with respect to these open seats and who will be making these decisions. tom: and what this -- jonathan: at what this administration would like the federal reserve to be. we know this federal reserve has pivoted, do you have any understanding of what this administration wants this federal reserve to be? how it once it to act -- it

wants it to act? tom: it starts from the previous administration. there is a whole social and overly where we are not only asking for fed monetary policy. i would suggest they are making that up as they go. what it will come down to is a given crisis, which is why the fed is around, based on what ben bernanke has written about, the monetary phd's show up at the door and that is what you focus on. jonathan: tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz continued on to jobs report. your price action looks like this, the equity market futures up 11, advancing one quarter of 1%. on the nasdaq, up 152. yields are basically unchanged after drifting through much of this week. 1.7231 on tens. a fantastic response to the jobs report.

we will catch up with ellen zentner, priya misra, and more. at 9:00, we will catch up with rick rieder, michael collins, and the reaction from the white house. don't go anywhere, the best lineup on this payrolls friday, right here. ♪

jonathan: we are heading towards a week of losses on the s&p 500 and on the nasdaq. taking out a little bite with futures of 2/10 of 1% on the s&p 500 and nasdaq futures up around one third. the risk reduction we have seen over the past few days, let's talk about the bond market. we have seen the 10 year yield was higher around 20 basis points. right now, 17213 on tens -- 1.7213 on tens. first week of the year we had a move on treasuries about 20 basis points. that shift hire was fast as well. it topped out at the end of q1 at 177. we were short of that level earlier in the week. that is that is the u.s. bond market head of payrolls this morning.

the european bond market, let's finish on there. some european a data out earlier, eurozone, record high 5%. away from the five handle, look at call. just north at 2.5%. when we talk about inflation in america, that is close to seven and call is around five. when you talk about european inflation, for the ecb, the guide has been what happens with court. it is around -- look at core. -- it may be a policy. the 10 year yield in germany getting closer to zero but still down around seven is busy -- down around seven basis points. on the italian 10 year, drifting higher. that has been the composition really, at 129. yields up around a basis point. inflation in america has woken up the federal reserve and driven a vivid that for the ecb

has not happened in the same way. maybe they could be 12 months behind. tom: you wonder how transitory translates into italian or the french of christine lagarde. a its analysis there. i'm watching the swiss 20 year moving out 14 or 16 basis points against showing a trend in europe. on this jobs report, this is always a joy on this friday. carl riccadonna joins us. december is always a strange time, particularly with retail labor dynamics. you take the hollow payroll gains we may see and bring them over to a new phrase from princeton university which is the lisa abramowicz report -- abramowitz bull.

carl: payroll reportcarl: it is like a trojan horse in that it is a misleading outcome. that could be the case today as we look at the jobs report. it will be above consensus, but will reflect a lack of layoffs rather than a real acceleration in hiring. therefore, it is misleading because it will look like a pickup in hiring. and a lot of sectors that start seasonal layoffs, retailers not start till january. a lot of sectors like professional business services, leisure, hospitality, places where they have been struggling to land workers, because they are facing those difficulties in a tight labor market, they want to be willing to let the seasonal workers go to the same extent as usual. smaller seasonal layoffs will create the illusion of a stronger hiring game. -- hiring gain. a bit of a hollow gain. tom: jeffrey sachs at columbia

here is the, i give him immense credit for showing the partitions of the american labor economy. he is way out front on talking about an unemployed america that was never going to be employed. is that still true today? does that skew this report, that there is just part of america that will not be employed in as olden times? carl: this goes back to the issue of scarring in the labor market could be a persistent feature in the labor market, especially if the fed is responding to inflation and starting to normalize policy while a certain cadre of the workforce remains on the sidelines. we can see that, especially if we look at labor force participation by education level. as we look at college-educated and greater, not that dramatic of a swing during the covid recession. also a complete rebound.

if we look at those with less of a college degree or less than a high school degree, we can see more persistent the location in the labor market and a more muted recovery. the risk -- this risk is something jerome powell has highlighted, that those individuals will remained -- will remain sidelined as the economy recovers and economic cycle gets underway. by keeping fed policy in the accommodative position and letting the economy lean hot, you would potentially have success bringing those individuals off the sidelines. we saw that in 2018 and 2019 ahead of the 2020 downturn. the fed does not have the luxury to do that given the inflation pressures we are looking at. christine lagarde's translation as transitory, she has described it as a hump. lisa: thank you, that was

helpful. the abramowitz rule -- the abramowitz bull is more of a unicorn than a trojan horse. given the sense it could be a hollow report, do you think there will be a deceleration in the labor market and wage gains want to be as robust as people think and frankly even as the fed is penciling in? carl: can iso that -- can i answer that in april or may this year? as we look at the data, whatever we see for the december report, you might as well put a negative sign in front of that for your forecast for the january outcome and february will be lousy as well. as we look at the mid-march fed meeting, they will have a clouded radar screen to make their economic assessment due to what we are seeing with omicron at the moment. they will be a lack of clarity

over the next couple of months due to the coronavirus. the fed is going to struggle to see what is happening in the underlying forces with labor and inflation. that is a reason why we might see the fed keeping its options open in terms of pricing the interest rate increase either at the march meeting or the june meeting. thanks looked prior to omicron that march could be an interest rate lift off opportunity, but i suspect we are going to see, not only with q1 gdp forecasts falling from 6% down to 2%, that combined with the labor outlook is going to complicate march left off. it does not mean it can't happen, but i think the pricing on that will slide as we see data reflecting what is happening with omicron. we see the first of that with

things like december motor vehicle sales, expectations, seeing a drift up in jobless claims. i think we will see more of that in retail data and so forth over the next december week. lisa: this goes to something john was talking about which is that the fed is dependent, but then they suddenly came more aware of inflationary reads we were seeing. what data is most important for a federal reserve facing a slowdown from omicron yet persistent supply chain disruptions that may push the inflation rates higher still? carl: the most critical data point is going to be the unemployment rate, as flawed as it can be due to distortions from labor force participation. if we continue on at the momentum we have seen in the improving labor market, that will push the unemployment rate before 4% -- below 4% relatively

soon. it could happen at 8:30 this morning, if not it could happen in the next couple of months. that signals to the fed we have achieved what we wanted to achieve for interest rate lift off. the unemployment rate is the most obvious indicator, but the fed takes a nuanced approach so they will be looking at labor force participation, the population ratio, especially for an aged workers and keeping a watchful eye on inflation-adjusted wage gains and comparing that to productivity. this is how jerome powell has explained that he is thinking about the labor market. jonathan: carl riccadonna of bloomberg intelligence. i don't think abramowitz bulls does not work as well as

abramowitz bears. it doesn't work for me. lisa: they do exist. they're looking around the corner for what they could be missing. bullish in which capacity? i don't think we are headed into a recession this year. you just have to look around the corner. jonathan: let's get serious about the inflation story and pick up on the words from carl. even if you are the most dovish policymaker at the federal reserve, one thing you are worried about is higher inflation expectations becoming more embedded. you speak to anyone in any long-term negotiation, they will be looking for where core inflation is and headline inflation is. that is the issue that even the most dovish policymaker on the fed has right now. that is the concern they have. even if you believe everything we have seen and belief everything about supply-side

constraints, that will be a number one issue. the number one worry is that higher inflation expectations become embedded. tom: the embedded part can be behavioral. far more than behavioral is a reality of the idea that we go up to 7% inflation and come down in some linear fashion. it has extended out of the x axis. i wonder if the upset we have seen over the last five days is recalibrating somewhat lower inflation. maybe it is farther out than we thought. jonathan: tom keene, this abramowitz and jonathan ferro on this payrolls friday. yields unchanged on tens at 1.7231. the jobs report, a couple of hours away. ♪ ritika: the white house and postal service making final plans to deliver 500 million

coronavirus test gets to households. officials want to begin shipping the tests the middle of this month. any announcement may come next week. -- encouraging employees to work remotely through the week starting monday broad it evaluates its next move. thank hurt workers to get fully vaccinated and received a booster shot, although it stopped short of a full mandate. and because, the president declared that order has been restored. protests erupted over fuel price increases, leaving dozens of people debt. russia and its allies dispatched troops to quell demonstrations. it has been the biggest threat to the government since independence three months ago -- 30 years ago. beijing is calling on banks to boost up lending in the first quarter. it is a key debt restriction for developers.

regulators try to engineer a soft landing after years of debt fueled expansions. bitcoin has fallen below the $42,000 level since -- for the first time since september. hitting a record of almost $69,000 on november 10. it comes after the fed signaled that interest rate hikes may come earlier than expected. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the guidance has changed, it needs to change. the communication from the

administration has been challenging. what we want to see from the cdc is not that they are taking political calculations, but rather that there looking at what is the best evidence and tracking that evidence as it changes and communicating. jonathan: chris berra was brilliant, the professor and epidemiologist at the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. i'm jonathan ferro. futures up 10 on the s&p, advancing 2/10 of 1%. a third of 1% on the s&p. yields unchanged. euro-dollar advancing around 1/10 of 1%. 1.1306. crude is up, 1/10 of 1% higher. heading towards payrolls friday, we will be consumed, drowning in the economic and about one hour 40 minutes. i want to bring up the story in

china because it has not been talked about much. china calling on banks to boost real estate lending in the first quarter. they also ease the key debt restriction for developers. there is concern going on in the world's second largest economy. officials are worried about that particular part of the economy. tom: it gets down to an embarrassing issue where it is not just evergrande. one thing going into friday and into the weekend is what this is about is preparing for sunday evening in america, the time went typically china will act. jonathan: previously unreported window guidance, regulators told banks to step up lending after two quarters of consecutive decline. this is the story for a lot of people into 2022, just cushioned the blow of what has taken place over the last 12 months.

jonathan: i'm going to watch the news flow -- tom: i'm going to watch the news flow on china on sunday. andrew pekosz is at the john hopkins university and gives us an a omicron brief today. even a dummy like me has figured out omicron is not delta. but there is a mystery to it. what is the biggest mystery into omicron -- with omicron into this weekend? andrew: it circles around why this virus seems to be so much more transmissible. it has mutations that can invade immune responses vaccines give you, but it does seem like this virus is a spreading better than other variants. we don't understand what that is, but it seems like people are getting infected in conditions that were previously highly unlikely to immediate infection.

that is fueling this massive surge of cases. transmission is something difficult to study in a laboratory, but it is one of the things omicron is doing fantastically better than any other variant we have seen. tom: is there a zeta after omicron? do you just assume there is another variant after this one? andrew: there absolutely will be. this virus has shown the ability to evolve, change, and respond to its new host humans. it is not trying to evade some of the immune responses coming down the line. i do firmly feel we are on a path to make the disease caused by this virus much more mild, much more contained because we will have population immunity. we will have the vaccines that

are effectively knocking down severe disease and we will eventually have antivirals to help limit that. there are ways we can control this disease. this virus will be around for a long time and it is looking more like we will have to deal with this like we with seasonal influenza. lisa: when do we get to that point where we have enough herd immunity or immunity in the general population, along with the remedies and the vaccine, where we can go back to life as it is and treat this like the common cold or flu? andrew: i feel like this surge of omicron cases will be the tipping point. with the massive number of cases , and some of the official counts are probably underestimates of the true number of cases out there right now. this surge of omicron cases may be what pushes us over into enough immunity in the

population is so that transmission is limited and therefore the likelihood of getting infected will be lower going forward from here. lisa: how do people avoid getting sick? andrew: it comes down to the basic principles we have been talking about, perhaps boosted up a little bit. i am a believer that people should worry about wearing kn 95 masks or masking with a surgical mask and a facial mask on top. this increased transmission of omicron requires people to take an even greater effort to limit exposures. masking is one thing. the other is its issues we talked about. those are important to continue to do. do as much work as you can remotely. what you're going into situations where you will be exposed to people, realize you need to up your game to protect

yourself and be wary of getting infected. jonathan: thank you, sir. the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health now entering year three of all this. it feels like a lifetime for some people. tom: snow on the ground here and i was thinking we are one week away from our sojourn to davos and that is not going to happen. think of the microcosm of -- that have been blown up the length of this pandemic. things that really matter, whether it is sports at high schools or church events or whatever. jonathan: all of the conferences in this country and around the world. that is why this conversation that shifted to a conversation around targeted relief. that relief come i've no idea when it comes or how big it will be. lisa: the idea of small baseball stadiums or other gatherings,

arenas or places where people would go to see shows are still closed. how do you keep them afloat for a few months longer? my focus has been on schools and kids getting back in person and the challenges there. new york city is trying to keep schools open. this going influence on children, i cannot stress enough. the idea of possibly going into lockdown or going remote was traumatizing to the kids. that highlights how much this has shaped an entire generation. jonathan: for many people, if the bars are open, the school should be open. how can you have a city where the bars are open and the cities are closed? that doesn't make sense to me. lisa: and people are setting up bars in their homes if they have to deal with at home school again. tom: no. jonathan: i think if this

conversation goes on, we can hear how lisa feels about certain circumstances. lisa: [laughter] jonathan: i think it is safe to say lisa might be struggling a little bit. i will come and rescue you and bring you back in a week or so. up to tens of 1% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> an assortment of different labor market metrics continue to drive home the point that the market is tight. >> you are seeing messy dynamics. >> the fed has to do a better job telling us what they are thinking, how they are thinking. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: payrolls just around the corner. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your market up seven on the s&p. we will catch up with priya misra of td. she said, has it only been a week? is this really just the first week? what a week it has been. tom: there really is true.