♪ >> an assortment of different labor market metrics continue to drive home the point that the market is tight. >> you are seeing messy dynamics. >> the fed has to do a better job telling us what they are thinking, how they are thinking. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: payrolls just around the corner. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your market up seven on the s&p. we will catch up with priya misra of td. she said, has it only been a week? is this really just the first week? what a week it has been. tom: there really is true.

all i can say is every jobs report, we all got wrong three or four jobs report ago, and in there is this one in that one. this is the one about a changed market economy. lisa mentioned inflation in europe. this is about a jobs report within rising, and is it persistent, new inflation. jonathan: once again, it is tradition now, the range is incredibly wide, just look it was throughout 2021. lisa: the range is incredibly wide with the whisper coming in at 500,000. basically, people ratcheting up expectations quietly after that blockbuster adp report. how much does the headline number really matter? how much is it going to be the participation rate and the wage picture that is going to direct the fed more than simply the headline number? also via night -- also the idea

that the on the image rate is falling to the lowest since the start of the pandemic. jonathan: what is the whisper number? lisa: i can't wait. the whisper number is 500,000. jonathan: futures up 0.2% on the s&p. i am not going to whisper through this morning. yields higher by about half a basis point to 1.726 6%. on the week, of 20 basis points or so on the 10 year yield. a similar story to what we face when we kick off 2021. it is what we are facing now as we kick off 2022. tom: we've got to stop here before priya. what has not moved is the euro. securities are quiescent given all of the uproar in foreign-exchange. jonathan: euro-dollar unchanged at around 1.13. so much coming up. lisa: it really starts at 8:30

am with that payrolls report. the expectation for 447,000, but people have been increasing expectations. the end of limit rate expected to fall to 4.1%, the lowest since march 2020. is this full employment? really, you are going to have to look underneath some of these other metrics, and particular the participation rate which has still not recovered. why? is because people are waiting to use up their savings? is it because people are stuck at home with their children, trying to figure out what the picture for schools is going to be? this will determine a lot of the tightness in the wage market and how much payrolls could potentially increase going forward. at 10:45 a.m., president biden comes out. it is a very strong labor market. it is a tightening labor market. he still wants to get more spending and employing more americans through some of his programs. how do you do this when companies are complaining about a shortage of workers?

at 12:15 p.m., bank of england's catherine mann speaking on a panel. to me, this is one of the crucial questions as we look at a flattening yield curve. the bond market doesn't buy it. the bond market is saying the fed will not be able to reach the terminal rate is expecting to reach, and get the fed is continuing to say they will raise rates with people ratcheting up expectations for a rate hiking cycle. does the market have it wrong, and it is simply distorted by a lot of the dynamics at "central's around the world? jonathan: joining us now is priya misra, global head of rates strategy at td securities. the pivot at the fed, it is not just them, it is you, too. what is the fed call now? priya: we are looking for the first rate hike in june, looking for three hikes this year, and for balance sheet runoff to start early next year. the big pivot for us, the

fed reaction function very clearly changed between september and december. the dot plot suggested they want to start at least undertaking liftoff. the minutes suggested to could be faster, that it could actually start even before we reach full employment. i think the fed is trying to ingect risk into the market, that if inflation expectations begin to rise, that the fed is willing to take a step to hike, to go faster than they did the last cycle, as well as goes were runoff earlier. i have to say, we also responded to better economic data. we were expecting labor force participation to rise last year. that did not really happen. i was a little comforted by the last report, so we will be looking at that again this morning. does that labor force participation start to nudge up?

that makes the fed think there is more labor market slack. i think their estimate and our estimate of labor market slack is what changed in the fourth quarter. the fed decided to respond. tom: it is a movable feast, hugely difficult to predict in these original times, and there is a school of thought that the short-term space can move around , but the long-term yields will stay down. price up, you'll down. -- price up, yields down. david rosenberg yesterday was heated on this, that we are going to go up and then come back down. you would be someone that would ascribe to that. how likely is it that we will see tempered lower long-term yields? priya: i will say we are forecasting the 10 year not to go above 2.5%. that is lower than the last move

come over the tenure did get to 3%. but it can be higher from here. what i really struggle with is the market pricing in a policy mistake, that the fed will start hiking as early as march. they hiked four times this year. they let the balance sheets runoff. then they push us into a double-dip or realize that they went too much. i think that is not giving the fed enough credit. i do think they want to raise rates, but do they want to raise rates to the point where they tighten financial conditions and derail the recovery? that is what i pushback against. we think it is closer to 2%, but it is not that many more hikes. i think what the fed will focus on is balance sheets reduction, which is massive. the fed owns a ton of treasuries, and a lot of them are short dated, so if they follow the process of the last cycle, there will be a lot of treasuries we need to take on.

the long end of the treasury curve will move beyond just rising in the terminal rate to pricing and balance sheet runoff , which will take the 10 year higher. very soon, i think we'll rate -- 10 year higher very soon. i think real rates are already responding to that. lisa: using people are trained by past experience that we are not going to have a higher terminal rate than in previous cycles just because that has been the rate of travel for an increasingly indebted society? priya: i think the fed has bought into a lower term leverage, which is why even the dot plot, for all the hawkish tilt at the december fed, they actually did not move the long run doy -- the long run dot. they are concerned about inflation, they should be talking about raising rates beyond neutral. so the fed seems to be in the camp that they are not going to raise rates which is why i do struggle with why the market

seems to be pricing in this mistake, but the risk complex is not pricing it in. there could just be complacency on the long end, and a view that the fed will not let financial conditions tighten too much, but i have to say, hiking cycle, balance sheets runoff, the aim for the fed, it is not an undefended consequence. it is what they are looking to do. it is all about the pace now, and we haven't really talked about omicron. how does the economy handle it? we think it is going to make the more gradual than what the market is fearing after the minutes came out. jonathan: that second to last point, how durable do you think the fed put is in this environment? priya: i think there is a put, but it ultimately feedthrough into broader financial conditions. we have had a tightening this week. i thing is tiny. is a lot more tightening that can happen. look at those long and real rates. if we get close to zero, i think the fed put comes in because it

is going to affect the real economy. we are at -70 basis points, so there's a lot of room for real rates to rise to tighten financial conditions before the fed will say this is affecting the macro outlook. they are fighting a tight labor market and the risk of a wage price spiral. i think that is what they are trying to fight, so financial conditions tighten, so be it. jonathan: priya misra of td securities on this bond market. if financial conditions, the market comes down to much, credit spreads widened too much, how much does that have to back away from its plans to hike interest rates this year? mohamed el-erian right about this overnight. "as i suspect, despite recent moves, the central bank is still lacking develop its on the ground, it is possible that policy signaling will further undermine markets' notion of an automatic fed put." i think that line is really important, something we are all

grappling with for 2022 in markets. tom: let's be blunt, if governor al arian was there, -- if governor el-erian was still there, he would not be writing that. they do not get out in front of the dynamics of an economy. every central bank, big, small, whatever, is ex post, so i am going to cut jerome powell some major slack there. jonathan: do you think that was true before the framework shift? tom: yeah, this goes back. this is anna schwartz, this is rich timberlake, alan meltzer. they are all ex post by definition. jonathan: ok, one side of the debate. futures up seven on the s&p, advancing 0.1%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the u.s. jobs report is out less

than an hour from now, and it is expected to show that payrolls grew by 447,000 in december. that would be more than twice the november figure and the unemployment rate is likely to dip 0.1% to 4.1%. it is a test for european central bank officials who insist that the spike in prices is temporary. inflation in the euro region spat up last month beyond record levels. consumer prices rose 5% from a year ago, faster than novembers gain and higher than the median estimate in the bloomberg survey. there's a showdown at the u.s. supreme court today. justice will hear argument on president biden's push to vaccinate millions of workers against the coronavirus. the conservative leaning court is likely to be wary of the assertion of broad federal power to fight the pandemic. you can add john legend to the list of super tarts cashing in on the boom for the market for music rights. he has sold his catalog

to kkr. last month, bruce springsteen sold his entire catalog for a reported 500 million dollars. bob dylan and stevie nicks have also struck blockbuster deals. aston martin says it has put its high-performance project back on track after disappointing deliveries last year. the british automaker shipped just 10 of the $3.3 million cars in the fourth quarter. that lowered ebitda by about $20 million. still, there is strong demand for its suv. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we do see inflation coming down from the levels we have become accustomed to in the last two or three months. although it is coming down, we are still likely to see inflation settling at a level higher than what we have seen over the last 10 years, above the 2% target, and something the fed inevitably has got to respond to. jonathan: seema shah of global principal investors. a fed that is ready to respond to it at some point later this year. from new york city come with tom keene and lisa abramowicz -- from new york city, with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. in one hour and around 12 minutes, we will have some jobs data. your median estimate, 447,000. tom: jobs day could really move the markets. it will be interesting to see how it works out. i am looking at the revisions we will see back two months. where are we? we are at one million units, and that has come down to 800,000.

jonathan: it hundred to 2000, ian shepherdson at pantheon macro -- 820,000, ian shepherdson at pantheon macro. tom: lisa, give us the whisper number, please. lisa: 500,000. tom: thank you. we go to the jobs report a 500,000 as the whisper number. right now, we go to whether girl annmarie hordern in washington. let's start with the president, four days ago on the runway for 36 minutes. the snow was so much that air force one had to sit on the runway. now another blizzard hits washington. what do the politicians do on a snowy day in washington? annmarie: another blizzard hits washington, so they say. i have yet to see snow flurries, but that did not stop a message coming out that the federal government will be shut. as a new yorker, i have to say, i am a little bit shocked on how washington deals with the snow. when it snows and the roads have

to get plowed, it is hours before that happens, and the other day it was complete lockdown and shut down. when i arrive at the white house by noon, even the white house driveway was not plowed yet. that gives you a little bit of a sense of how washington deals with the snow, not the way the efficiency of where you're sitting in manhattan. tom: even more important, your father would have whipped up the snowblower and gotten that fixed in 15 minutes. annmarie: he would have. tom: i want to talk about how the republicans, the gop will respond to the blizzard that was the president's speech yesterday. how will the republicans respond? annmarie: we are not hearing a lot from republicans. we are, in terms of statements that have come out. we heard obviously from senator mitch mcconnell, senator mitt romney talking about how it was a dark day in america's history one year ago, the insurrection and siege and the breaching of the capitol, but yesterday it

was very lonely on the republican side of the aisle. there was only represented of liz cheney who joined the moment of silence led by speaker pelosi , joined by her father, vice president dick cheney. after, dozens of democrats went up to want to greet him in thanks. this is a man that into thousand seven, dozens of democrats wanted to drop his impeachment. so you could see the shocking this of how the republican party has moved. for the most part, republicans want to shy away from what the democrats did yesterday. many saying that what they did his room bring january 6 is important, but they are unhappy with the fact that they feel like they used it as a partisan way to push through some of their legislative agenda like voting rights. lisa: perhaps it was a quiet response from the republicans yesterday. today we will be hearing from

president biden at 10:00 a.m. how is he going to spin this while also push forward his bill back better? -- his build back better? annmarie: it is a tight labor market, so this might be difficult, but if it is a good jobs number, the president will revel in that. when it comes to build back better, at the moment, those talks are very quiet. we heard from senator joe manchin already this week saying he doesn't even know why reporters are asking him about it. it is done. but obviously there will be talk about some policy issues potentially a smaller legislative package, and the president will talk about what he usually does, the fact that longer-term, these policies will help fight inflation and make sure there are competitive jobs in the united states, and potentially that it is a way the united states can stay competitive to china. lisa: we are looking at a scenario where companies save

your top concern is hiring enough people. they can't find the workers. job openings have surged to near records. at what point does that become a challenge to the messaging, saying we will create jobs and we have the jobs, we just don't have the workers to fill them? annmarie: that is going to become challenging for the administration. they will likely say that this is just a kink in one of the many supply chain issues that has started due to covid, and they are now dealing with the omicron wave. you see a number of issues in the labor market, not just for long-term hiring, but short-term hiring. airlines desperate to get people in because they are seeing a number of people call out sick. but the president will likely say these are just kinks in the road, and it is a better problem to have. jonathan: surely there's a ton

of political risk around school closures. i wonder how the ministry she can deal with that on a federal level. what on earth can they do? annmarie: when you're talking about school closures, these are all state and local levels. the trumpet adminstration said at the start of the virus that the way the united states is set up, these issues need to be dealt with on state levels, and the biden administration has struggled with that as well. the president said this week that schools should remain open, and that was reiterated by his press secretary jen psaki, but what you are seeing in chicago is a little bit of a struggle because the teachers union does not want to go back to work, but now the governor of chicago is asking the federal government to help send more tests, substantially that'll ease some concerns of individuals wanting to get back-to-school if they can take a test. we do know that the white house is working now with the postal system, and that website will come up soon where you can go as an american, sign up for a test, and hopefully by next week, those will be shipped out. jonathan: thank you.

i have to say, walgreens in new york city town town actually had a lot of tests yesterday. limited to four per person, but a lot of tests. they were $10 each, compared to the fact that you could get a pack of seven in the united states for free from your government. they are trying to work that out here in the united states. lisa, the reason i associate political risk with the school closures, i wonder how many parents will consider shifting conservative when they see these issues continue in places like new york, chicago, and elsewhere. lisa: a lot of people wrote in when we were talking about kids and how they have been completely scarred by the experience of being remote for a full year, and the prospect of doing it again was scarring for both kids and parents trying to deal with it and for working. the question is, at what point do we start talking about this and addressing it head on? it is something that has been a real obstacle for president

biden because there's so many things that have to happen to get everyone safely back. jonathan: the show this morning is not sponsored by duane reade. futures up six, up 0.1 percent. yields unchanged, 1.72%. from new york on this payrolls friday, good morning to you all. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: payrolls 60 minutes away. your estimate is now 450,000. 206 2000 the view of our next guest. equity futures up around 0.1% on the s&p, up around 0.25% on the nasdaq. let's get to the bond market. the first week of 2022, and a move of around when he basis on the tenure. on 2 -- on the 10 year. pushing 90 basis points on the two-year yield. a big conversation about how far this federal reserve will take it. let's go to remain bostick -- go to romaine bostick. romaine: a low bit of weakness

in some of the tech names, little bit of strength in some of the tech and materials. netflix shares up only about 0.3%, but the damage is done. yesterday broke below the 200 day moving average. apple up about your .5% -- about 0.5%. it continues to drift lower and lower. one of the bright spots this week and in the premarket is for those shares come up 2% today. this was the sixth best-performing stock in the s&p last year. the concerns about tech valuations and multiples continues to persist. texas instruments downgraded at citi to neutral because of margin concerns. those shares down 2%. starbucks getting two downgrades today to neutral at rbc and oppenheimer. those shares down 2% in the

premarket. i would be remiss if i did not bring up gamestop, back in the news here. the share is up about 14% in the premarket, announcing his latest initiative to bring people back into the fold, an nft platform area those shares now trading at $149. tom: greatly appreciate that. we need to talk jobs with ellen zentner of morgan stanley, their chief economist. i want to ask one question first about the view forward. my research piece of the morning is your colleague andrew sheets out of london's, who simply says, do we need to throw out the outlook? do we need to recalibrate the morgan stanley view for the rest of 2022? ellen: no, and i am sure he doesn't mean throughout my

outlook, but no, i don't think we have to recalibrate the outlook. i think what it means is that we continue to be impressed by how aggressive the fed is expressing its angst around inflation and its confidence in the labor market, and they need to begin removing policy accommodation, and to begin removing policy accommodation much more so than people expected. the unknown factor is you are not just raising rates, but reducing the balance sheet. that is where it becomes difficult to get a handle on just how much financial condition tightening we should expect this year. jonathan: what is the most -- lisa: what is the most important number in the jobs report we are about to get? ellen: i think it is labor force participation. i know it fluctuates from month to month, but we want to continue to see that prime labor force participation rate pickup.

decembers data, but more so january, which we have to wait some time to get, is going to be marred by omicron, so you do get some damage to labor force participation around these variants, but we know that is temporary. we know that jobs were positive, and the fed mentioned this in their minutes. so we are continuing to make progress. whether it is 260,000, which is my expectation, whether it is close to consensus, that is still healthy job gains over the month of december, so it is really labor force participation. are we getting people back into the labor markets? lisa: help us interpret it from the fed's point of view. let's say that participation rate has not increased materially. does that make it more or less likely that the fed will go ahead and tighten sooner? ellen: i think when you listen to their words, they are very

confident that we will continue to see improvement, and they like what they have seen so far. so i don't think any fluctuations in labor force participation rate now is going to knock them off this past towards tightening policy. but over the medium term to longer, this is something they have to see to be convinced that we are continuing to reach all groups in the labor market, that we are trying to create that inclusive recovery in the labor market. so it is not just prime age labor force participation, but how does that look between men versus women, black versus white , and different and various age groups within that prime age? you can't have a full recovery in the economy and a fully operational economy at its potential equal and inclusive without higher labor force participation rates. it is a slow-moving beast, and

it is moving in the right direction. we just want to see that that continues. jonathan: we've clearly had a pivot from the federal reserve and the last couple of months. i just wonder what in that has surprised you most. ellen: one, how quickly they were willing to ditch this idea that kobe-related prices -- that covid related prices is temporary. then they changed to could be temporary. then it was, no, it is broadening out. and it is true, there are some signs it has broadened out because the longer those prices remain elevated, you do get a chance for more of those price increases to spill to other areas of the economy. so it is not really the realization itself. it is the speed that i think has been quite impressive. but we have seen this. we should have known this. we have seen this before. when he first took over as chair, one thing i pointed out at that time was that he was

probably going to be more nimble, more quick, and more varied with his decision-making than past chairs of the fed. we have seen how quickly he can pivot. think of in 2018, when the balance sheet write down -- balance rundown was hurting liquidity. look how quickly they went away from transitory to not so transitory to temporary to hey, we really need to tighten policy. so i think in a way, it creates a lot of volatility because of uncertainty about just how quickly things can change, but it does also mean that he has probably the leader that has the first chance to lengthen the cycles because he can respond so quick to. tom: let's -- jonathan: let's talk about that pivot in the history with chairman powell. some might say it is easier to go from hawkish to dovish.

inflation is now close to 7%. it is harder to go from hawkish to dovish when inflation is around 7%? i guess my bigger question for a lot of people, how durable is the fed put under this federal reserve in this economy? ellen: i think the fed put, the weight it has always been to me, it seems to be equities. somehow, the fed doesn't like it when equities selloff, so the fed moves. in this case, are they doing this because the equity market just keeps going up and they don't like these animal spirits? that is absolutely not the case. i would always put credit markets ahead of equity markets. if equity markets are selling off in a big way, and they were in 2018, why are they selling off? are they selling off for some reason that is also expecting credit? credit has an upfront an immediate impact on the economy with long tails, and especially

an effect on the labor market. so equities don't seem to have quite realized just how much fed tightening they have this year, partially because some of the titan is going to come from a rundown of the balance sheet. maybe we forget the effects that has had before on liquidity and credit and the very things that drive equity markets. so i think that would be one worry. but if the bond market isn't pricing in a very hawkish fed, but the equity market does not seem to be doing that, i think it is because it is just difficult to get details on how aggressively they're going to use the balance sheet. tom: a simple question. i will ask this of jim glassman as well. is labor getting wage power? are we seeing labor get a greater wage share? ellen: we are, and we have done that work that i am sure, as an avid reader, you have gone

through. we do think we could see from starting back in 2016 that the labor share of overall income in the economy has been rising. covid has been this catalyst that has really accelerated that. it is not that wages, which have been growing compared to what we have been used to in the past decade or two, it is not that they are out of hand. it is that they are returning back to normal, so we are reaching back towards normal labor share of income. what is interesting is that wage growth is strong. nominal wage growth across low-paying sectors, middle paying and high-paying sectors. it is only inflation in the low-paying sectors because that is where we have the most shortage of labor, people having to pay up to get people to work,

so that is where real wages are growing, where those low-income households, as inflation comes down and wages remain strong, we should get real wages growing across all income segments. jonathan: ellen zender of morgan stanley looking for 200,000 on payrolls. always wonderful to catch up with you on payrolls friday. that 2018 is so important, and the credit component of it. you remember the high yield primary market shut down. that has got to be the focus again. lisa: right now we are very far from that, but it is very telling that she says credit is the market to watch when right now, it looks pretty stable. jonathan: lisa abramowicz, tom keene, and jonathan ferro guiding you through this payrolls friday. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the white house and the postal service reportedly are making

final plans to deliver 500 million coronavirus test kits to households, according to "the washington post." officials are said to want to begin shipping the tests in the middle of this month. an announcement may come next week. bank of america is pushing back its return to office another week, encouraging u.s. employees to work remotely through the week starting monday while it evaluates its next move. the bank will continue to encourage workers to get fully vaccinated and receive booster shots, although it stopped short of a full mandate. in london, about 200 armed forces personnel are being deployed in hospitals suffering from growing staff shortages. london has been at the epicenter of the omicron out in the u.k., and a rising number of national health service personnel can't work because they are ill or having into self-isolate. austria says tennis star novak djokovic is not being held against his will in a hotel for refugees and asylum seekers. djokovic arrived in melbourne to a play in the australian open,

but authorities overruled the state decision to late mn this -- to let him in despite being unvaccinated. djokovic's lawyers are trying to reverse that. officials say he can leave at any time. the largest cryptocurrency is down about 40% since hitting a record of almost 69,000 back on november 10. the retreat comes after the fed signaled that interest rate hikes may come faster and earlier than expected. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm a ticket group to. this is bloomberg -- i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> while there was some from delta, business came back when

we got past that variant. we are seeing the same thing with omicron, that we will see some bumps in the recovery. we have 30 brands and 140 countries, but we don't thing it is going to stop the recovery. jonathan: marriott international, the president. her view on that company, largely the broader view on the economy for many people as well. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." your payrolls report is just around the corner. futures advances points, op. cit. advance six points, up 0.6% . you know the numbers. your median estimate, 450,000, just inching higher through the week. tom: really want to emphasize there's a lot of data beneath the headline data, and we will dive into that. michael mckee us assistance. it will be honest, i go to median duration as one of the quick measurements i have of it,

but really, this time around, i will be watching the math the revisions in mind. right now we revised to a chart. kriti gupta joins us on radio and television. you go where ellen's and there is, the dispersion of the gains in this new bout of wage inflation. what do you see? kriti: you are starting to look at more and more companies trying to recruit as much labor as possible, and that is really what my chart get set. the idea that there is a difference between just a broader labor increases you are seeing, but if you strip out some of those managerial roles, you see that a lot of the wage increases, especially for real wages for the folks that have to deal with inflation in their paycheck-to-paycheck, they are the ones really benefiting from those wage increases, essentially showing for our radio audience, the line gets steeper and steeper. it shows that more employers are hiking up wages for the lower income brackets. think of your food delivery folks, your retail folks who work at walmart or amazon or a

retail company. that is the folks benefiting from this. another case study, i want to point to walmart as the biggest employer in the united states, essentially putting up their wages as high as $16.40. compare that to the minimal wage in texas, where i grew up, $7.25 in 2021. it highlights how badly some of these employers need those laborers, especially when it comes to those low income jobs. tom: it is a reversion to a trend that was in place before the pendant, right -- before the pandemic right? kriti: it is. essentially any wage increases that were into the labor market, you had those show up in the higher incomes. there was this widening wealth inequality or wealth gap. during the pandemic, you start

to see that shift a little bit. these are year-over-year increases, so you are seeing the pandemic change that a little bit. then really exacerbated more by the supply chain issues you are seeing, the idea that there is that recovering demand and you need some of these companies to meet capacity, but at the end of the day, they can't do that without the workers. as you see, workers want higher wages, what better benefits, and better safety precautions. that is spurring wages higher and higher as well. lisa: i was struck by a story today on the bloomberg terminal talking about hospital workers, the idea that people have been traumatized by the entire experience of covid, but also they can get bigger wages many other places where the wages are going up much faster. how much have we seen a sort of expectation for higher wages increasingly baked into companies' valuations right now? kriti: you're talking about

hospitals. nursing was a really big part of that. there was also that dynamic within airlines. flight attendants very vocal about the safety precautions they want. when we are talking about whether or not there's are baked into valuations, it kind of seems like those labor issues are. a lot of that has to do with some of the drops you saw when you had pilots talk about labor unions, for example. amazon also dealing with this when they are talking about warehouse jobs. starbucks also dealing with unions. when you see those headlines cross, that is when the stock market seems to react when it comes to pricing those issues and. lisa: so i'm looking right now, just going back to hospitals, the labor expenses have risen 26% year-over-year, according to one study. so a real bifurcated picture when it comes to the pace of wage increases, depending on the industry. i guess the question is how much of the wage increases have we already seen. can employees have the negotiating power to go in with their managers and demand a 9%

increase in cost-of-living raise rather than, say, 3%, which is more than normal over the past decade? kriti: this is just coming from general career advice i have gotten, that when you move from country to country or state to state, you have to adjust for inflation, and that is essentially the conversation a lot of employees are having with employers. what is getting tricky here is that you are also seeing this past migration out of a lot of these urban centers to places like atlanta, dallas, austin, even chicago, for example come out of new york come out of california come out of d.c. that is also playing a role because you have to play this balance between inflation, the effect on real wages, but also this mass migration and adjusting to the cost-of-living in states that aren't as expensive to live in as new york or california. so once again, there's these very strange labor dynamics. a lot of things they have to price and come up at the moment,

to your point, it does not seem like these employers really have a ton of pricing power because at the end of the day, they seem more desperate for those employees, and therefore you are seeing this emergence of unions, of that ability to negotiate those wages, and that is why these numbers keep climbing and climbing. jonathan: thank you, as always. kriti gupta daily with her chart of the day. just getting some news from "the sydney morning herald." a check tennis player has been detained by australian border force officials and asked to leave the country. the player entered australia with vaccine exams and on the basis that she had been infected with covid-19 in the last six months. we understand this was the same reason used by novak djokovic. so the novak djokovic getting some additional news going into the weekend and into next week, when on monday we should hear a little bit more on mr. djokovic's case. tom: i think it is going to be a busy news weekend on this

pandemic. i believe djokovic's right now can leave australia. there is some debate about was he detained or can he leave. what i know is it has been an extraordinary week. we are going into the jobs report here in 35 minutes, and one of the things on a friday, i go back to that wonderful child's book, "a snowy day." a snowy day in paris is absolutely extraordinary. it is not like london. it is certainly not like new york. but to see the snow in paris likely as i has is just spectacular. lisa: thanks. i am not in paris. i am in my apartment in new york city because i would diagnosed with omicron. how may times do i have to say this? but i appreciate it. jonathan: just in case people are tuning in, lisa, thank you for the update. when someone works out what tom is doing, please let us know.

tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. jonathan: your equity market up 0.1 percent. from new york city, heard on radio, seen on tv, for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

♪ >> we are clearly seeing a fed that is going to move faster in terms of rate hikes. >> the global selloff and rates seems to be spreading. >> will the fed permit real yields to get back to positive territory? >> overall policy remains accommodating. >> the fed has to tighten financial conditions of it tends to affect policy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. jonathan: the jobs report is 30 minutes away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good

morning. thislo