host: welcome today break australia from bloomberg headquarters in new york. i am shery ahn. >> we are counting down to asia's major market opens. top stories.

china may post its weakest growth in more than a year fueling expectation that the pboc could cut rates to boost the economy. china reports its first omicron case. just before the winter olympics. novak djokovic check departs australia. a federal court upheld the decision to revoke his entry permits. let's take a look at our asia markets. after the huge waves of volatility last week, we have prints when it comes to the state of the chinese economy. we are seeing a little bit of downside already. a second straight session of losses. kiwi stocks. when it comes to aussie futures, we are looking positive but we did have two such -- sessions of

losses. so much of it depends on the data coming out of china and the softness we see in that economy. nikkei futures up 0.1%. we are getting the latest numbers on the virus situation coming out of new south wales and victoria. new south wales reporting 20 -- 29,540 cases. lower than the last few days but the rapid antigen test that are part of the tally are still very hard to get. reporting 2776 people in hospital. victoria state reporting 22,000 -- more than 22,000 new cases in the last 24 hours as omicron continues to have a broad affect when it comes to the supply chain and services and hospitality as well. >> adding to the volatility the markets have to follow. markets in the u.s. will be away

for the martin luther king holiday. perhaps a good break. on friday, the s&p 500 spiked at the end of the session two inch into the green. this after a lot of pressure given some disappointing economic data. the tech leading the rebound. we also had energy leading the gains peered the energy sector, the best performer by far this year. the msci world energy index at the highest level in two years. not surprising since we have seen four weeks of gains or wti. it leading to more inflationary concerns. one stock -- jp morgan, the worst performance in the previous session. they have unexpected expenses, they surprised the markets at a time we are seeing the fastest inflation in the u.s. and decades. jamie dimon saying it is clear

that wage and other inflation is in transitory. bloomberg has learned that goldman sachs topped 1% and has received a special payout of millions of dollars in addition to annual bonuses after a year of record earnings. >> when it comes to inflation expectations, we have heard so much fed speak over the last few days and many fed speakers have floated the idea of hiking as early as march and potentially four or five moves throughout the course of the year. bill ackman thinks the fed needs to shock and awe the market. coming out with a 50 base move in march to restore credibility. bill ackman says this would have a reflexive affect to moderate the need for more aggressive and

economically painful steps in the future. this aggressive action -- he is not alone in saying this. we heard from a chief economist, henry kaufman saying if he was advising chair powell he would say go for the draconian measure of an immediate 50 basis point move. >> a tough decision to make at a time when you -- when if you would tighten the economic policy -- you mentioned earlier how beijing is seeing its first case of the omicron variant just ahead of the winter olympics. in the u.s. also we have the surgeon general paying the outbreak will worsen. we have a tough few weeks ahead. >> so much of that comes down to pushing through the booster. pushing through the vaccination levels. that does seem like one of our

last lines of defense against omicron as it continues to spread. and as we continue to see hospital cases and cases in children start to climb. and australia, -- in australia, the position is clear regarding vaccination. the idea that one individual person could give a voice to the anti-vaccination groups, and this is novak djokovic. he has already departed australia. the decision to overturn his visa was upheld by the federal court. it was as much a nailbiter as any central court final. i don't know many people that have otherwise -- that would otherwise be watching federal court proceedings on youtube this afternoon.

let's get more from our top stories. yvonne mann, kathleen hays, paul and sydney. beijing is reporting its first omicron variant case. just three weeks before the olympics are set to begin. what kind of disruptions are we expecting and what are policymakers doing? yvonne: this is something they were hoping to avoid. the first cases of omicron in john chen, -- tianjen, half an hour away from beijing. it does not seem like omicron will be changing much the olympics plans of late. over the weekend, they pledged to have a simple, splendid, and safe games in contrast to the beijing summer games they hosted

in 2008. the current virus restrictions will be effective in containing omicron. we have more on the adjustment of the zero covid strategy. it is not so much zero covid with big lockdowns, it is called dynamic clearing where they focus on the high risk areas. the rest of the country, they are going to try to operate in a normal way. that is the statement we are getting over the weekend. trying to boost consumption saying supplies will be ample, you will be able to have some mobility and you should be going out to spend and have more normal activities. also encouraging more e-commerce , entertainment channels as well. they say tune into that during the lunar new year holiday.

as of the first case in beijing, we know that people in close contact with that person and those that went to the same occasions as that person are being tested. this is adding another heading to the winter games which have been facing headlines including the like of a u.s. diplomatic boycott. the clock is ticking for them to stem this latest outbreak before february 4 when the winter games begin. >> and before that, we have seen disruptions from the outbreak of covid-19 not to mention the deepening property slump throwing a 1-2 punch to china. what do we expect in terms of their fourth-quarter gdp numbers today? >> no surprise, a sharp slowing. the number -- 3.3% year over year for the chinese economy, for the gdp and that will be the

slowest since the second quarter of 2020. a big decline. the good news is that as you look at this chart, you can see that earlier in the year the big 18% rise in gdp, it was a base effect -- after you have negative growth you will have positive growth at on a year-to-date basis, china's economy is expected to grow at 8% by the end of the year, down from 8.3 percent in the first quarter. it is a good news. the kind of growth that china likes to see. above 6%. the bad news is the omicron variant is spreading and we know how quick that can go. we have the lockdowns or limited lockdowns. the property developers are being hit hard. that is one third of china's economy. what you are seeing here is the chart of china's key economic

indicators. retail sales expected to go to 3.8% from 3.9% in november. not so bad. if you're having limited travel or limited ways to go to the store, you will spend less money. property investment slowing to 5.2 percent. the weakest since 2015. industrial production even with the purchasing index just a little above 50 is seeing slowing to 9.7% from 10.1% in november. that is a big reason why so many economists are saying, they will have to add some more monetary stimulus. bloomberg economics is predicting today that the people's bank of china will trim its one year medium lending term facility by five basis points to 2.9 0%. the majority of the economists survey said they don't expect them to do anything but it is

something everyone will be on the lookout for. >> one of the top stories and australia, novak djokovic is on his way home losing the final court battle to overturn the decision on his visa. what did the court say on its decision? >> the government is painting it as a win. the federal government agreed with the cup -- the federal court agreed to the government. novak djokovic says he is extremely disappointed. the government argued that he was a high profile vaccine skeptic. there was concern that he might increase anti-vaccine sentiment. his lawyers said there was little evidence to suggest that he was anti-and -- anti-vax, kicking him out would stir up

anti-vax sentiments. the context to all of this is important. melbourne was one of the most locked down cities in the world and now it is one of the most vaccinated cities in the world and with an election coming up in australia, allowing in a high profile millionaire tennis star around the rules, you can imagine the optics of that did not look terribly good. scott morrison welcoming this decision saying it is a tribute to the efforts of australians that did get vaccinated. and andrews was on local media a short time ago and she said, the saga could have been avoided if he had just gotten vaccinated. >> paul allen joining us from sydney. yvonne man from hong kong and kathleen hays from new york. let's get over to vonnie quinn what the first word headlines. >> u.s. surgeon general says the countries covid outbreak could

worsen in the short term. murphy called on health officials to close the gap with a severe shortage of testing. despite an increase in screening, that is still not enough to meet the spike and infections. he says the u.s. faces a tough few weeks ahead. a new poll shows most americans -- the cbs news survey suggests price pressures are the biggest challenge. headline inflation is at the highest since 1982. a separate survey indicates the president's popularity among black voters has plummeted. u.s. labour party leader says boris johnson broke the law and lied regarding parties at number 10 downing street during the lockdowns. the controversy is still -- some members of his party calling on him to step down. however, all of says now is not

the time for a leadership battle. iran says it is seen a huge rise in oil sales over the last 10 months. officials are factoring in daily sales for the year starting march 2021. despite iranian oil exports being subjected to u.s. sanctions. world powers are currently trying to revive a nuclear deal which had eased restrictions on iranian crude. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. >> u.s. banks earnings season is in full swing and muted long growth is the theme. we will hear why one market watchers sees many more u.s. companies struggling to beat wall street forecasts especially

tech stocks. this is bloomberg. ♪ks. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: it is time for your week ahead. this is what we are watching when it comes to china. gdp data on monday likely to show fourth-quarter slowed to its weakest level in more than a year. and a boj decision as well. the fed moving to tighten. kuroda will be looking at any kind of signaling on the economic rebound. u.k. inflation printed on wednesday is predicted to confirm surging prices. president biden marking his first year in office on thursday. shery: it has been a busy year from -- for the president from

the covid crisis to ongoing tensions with russia and china but a majority of americans fault president for his handling of inflation, the economy and covid guidance and it does not get any easier. republicans appeared to be in possession -- position to dominate the 22 elections. he has worked to remind voters of his legislative victory on the infrastructure. >> there is a lot of talk about disappointments on things that we have not gotten done. we are going to get a lot of them done, i might add. this is something we did get done and it is of enormous consequence to the country. shery: the earnings season getting underway. goldman sachs and bank of america reporting after jp morgan and wells fargo last week. and keep an eye on the australian minors. american airlines and united airlines are on the agenda also

as omicron continues to impact the travel outlook. those are the major events in your week ahead. let's bring in our next guest who says companies will have a harder time beating wall street forecasts this time around. joining us is andy capron, co-ceo of rid gentle landtag capital. -- regentatlantic capital. andy: the losers are tech stocks particularly for software companies that have a longer pathway. the other is inflation. they have a high cost structure. cost structures are predominantly the wages. that will make them hard to impress investors in the coming quarters. winners will be cyclicals.

energy, materials, they are likely to have a good quarter and a good year. shery: which is why bill ackman is calling for a 50 basis point hike from the fed to restore its credibility. what do you think? andy: i think that would be incredibly effective. as i think of central banks over the last 20 years, any time they have needed to avert a crisis, they have had to act with shock and awe. we saw it in 2020 from the federal reserve. they have had to provide liquidity. they might need to use that shock and awe to withdraw liquidity. the market is not expecting enough out of them and they risk losing control. haidi: the shock and awe, it -- does it restore credibility or does it run the risk of seeing the economy wrong?

it makes it hard for policymakers. andy: investors and central banks alike are running blind. we have never been in an environment like this before. this looks like what we would see in a local crisis where there was a hurricane. it is happening globally. central banks have never seen this before but at the same time, they have to admit that they called it wrong. calling things transitory was a major mistake. they got behind the curve and they need to get ahead of it in a big way or they risk losing market confidence. haidi: when you say there is caution with regards to tech -- andy: they started in an overvalued position. not every company can be the

next google or microsoft. the other thing as they are starting to see a lot of sentiment turn against them and a lot of fundamentals also. the biggest one is rising prices are not favorable for software. because software has one cost come wages for workers. wages rise at the same as inflation. haidi: always great to have you with us. andy capron -- andy kapyrin. novak djokovic has flown home after having lost his chance at a 23rd grand slam title. we are also seeing several bushfire alerts in effect in western australia.

australia is also still recovering from the extreme fire season just two years ago. it was acquired by square. the online payments company is run by jack dorsey. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: here's a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. unilever is talking to banks about more financing to raise its offer for a glaxo consumer unit. unilever is considering eventually selling some assets from its portfolio to help fund an acquisition.

the drugmaker says it is sticking to plans to spin off the portfolio plants. walmarts filings with the patent office reveals plans to create its own cryptocurrency and meet its customers in the metaverse. it is preparing to make and sell virtual goods through an fts. the retailing giant refused to divulge further information about says it is continuously exploring how emerging technologies may shape the future shopping experiences. targets top executives say u.s. consumers will drive less and make fewer trips to stores as they adjust to inflation. he says he is also expecting shoppers to eat more at home and buy cheaper, generic brand goods as prices rise. consumer prices jumped 7% last year, the fastest since early 1980's. target and other retailers are waiting to see how the trend impacts business after years of

soaring demand. coming up next, china's biggest developer, country garden had been relatively unscathed in the property crisis until last week when it's bonds plunged. we every day in business brings something new. so get the flexibility of the new mobile service designed for your small business. introducing comcast business mobile. you get the most reliable network with nationwide 5g included. and you can get unlimited data for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. p- [announcer] imagine. having fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. they're personalized to match your own natural hair color

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vonnie: china is likely to post its weakest economic growth in more than a year when it releases data in the coming hours. it's -- amid a deepening property market slump in disruption from virus outbreaks. that would be the slowest rate of growth since the second quarter of 2020, boosting the case for a rate cut by the pboc. the deficit for the fiscal year

could rise as much as $23 billion. the financial secretary says the bigger shortfall may happen if factors including debt issuance are taken into account. housing reserves and future fund investments could contribute to a larger figure. he says hong kong is making a steady economic recovery. billionaire investor, bill ackman, says the fed is losing its battle against inflation and should raise its rates by 50 basis points to restore quite ability. he said the market is anticipating three or four hikes of 23 basis points ekes -- each. president biden's national security advisor says it won't be surprising if russia was behind hacking of several ukrainian government websites. he says the u.s. is working to determine who was behind the attack.

ukraine saw several cyberattacks on friday and officials there say all evidence points to russia. moscow denies the allegations. novak djokovic has been deported from australia after the federal court upheld and austria to revoke his visa. they could revoke his potential payday. the austrian government says he risked boosting anti-vaccine views. djokovic says he plans to rest and recuperate. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: worries about contagion from china's crisis have reached country garden. more financially viable firms --

for the latest, let's bring on david engel it from hong kong. what is going on with country garden now? stephen: warning signals were raised last week when they failed to garner any demand for the $300 million convertible bond. as you rightly said, this was one of the more financially viable developers. this had been the largest developer contractor of sales in china, overtaking evergrande in 2017. they have been number one and like the other developers in this liquidity crunch, they relied heavily on the overseas credit market to fund expansion and what they have done, like evergrande, is expand into third and fourth tier cities.

where the risks seem to be mounting at a faster pace than the more developed places like shanghai and beijing, the tier one cities. they have relied on this access to funding to grow exponentially and you have to look at its upcoming liabilities. it has the largest pool of outstanding dollar bonds excluding the defaulters like evergrande. 11 point $7 billion in outstanding liabilities. the next maturity is january 27. it is relatively small, given their 29 billion dollars in cash mountain at the end of june, but were hundred $25 million is the first of a lot of liabilities coming due this year to the tune of $1.1 billion of bonds do this year. this has 200,000 employees, more than 3000 of element projects in

almost every single province in china. any china -- any trouble at country garden is going to reverberate across the economy and across society. that's why this is a big one. shery: what is the property sector going to look like in a few years? stephen: that is the million dollar question -- what is the endgame of xi jinping as they take on big tech and these property developers and multibillion-dollar tycoons who have racked up huge amount that to fund this expansion. look at the video we have of any developer -- wide expanse as far as the eye can see -- these properties are seen all across china. it's not just contained to guangdong. it is all across china. we have been putting this question to just about every

economist that comes through our doors or across our screen and they have a similar scenario. let me run through it quickly. in hong kong, they say this transition will be long and painful, the transition of knocking these private and over dented developers down to size and letting the state own enterprise, those with implicit guarantees, they will be taking a bigger, outsized role in the property sector. another says a slowdown is inevitable. the best we can expect is a relatively soft landing over the coming quarters. the outsized influence on the economy as represented by the property sector should fade out and will be replaced by high tech and green investment. we will have to see the scenario for high-tech as that is undersea just well. shery: stephen engle with the latest on china's property

sector. up next, we are also watching u.s. banks. earnings season in full swing. we seen muted long growth emerging as a theme, including j.p. morgan and wells fargo. morningstar joins us next for more on what's to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> i think 2022 may be the year the pandemic enters an endemic space, but it depends on the decisions made across the world. that is encouraging in some ways, but we have to stay very vigilant. haidi: time now for more ahead of the asia trading day and we will start off by taking a look with investors positive about the investor's ability to whether the omicron storm. they say waves of cases are likely -- likely to be more short-lived. timely social leave -- timely social distancing curves will help recover from the current

wave. shery: oils hot start to the year is expected to continue. we will see further gains for food prices after surging more than 10% do to tight supplies. the world's biggest independent oil trader says it is justified, near term futures are more expensive. oil prices have forced users to cut consumption. shery: wall street earnings season is underway. j.p. morgan, wells fargo and citigroup reporting results. the bank showing wage and inflation pressures taking a toll. joining us is an equity strategist at morningstar. what is your biggest take away given that we know there are number of seismic shifts affecting the broader industry after what was a banner year

last year? >> my biggest take away, and we have been telling clients is in our conversations, if there is a lot of positive fundamentals in the banks, the markets have priced a lot of that in already. it's a pretty high wall of expectations. the level you have to hit with earnings to get outperformance from here, where names like j.p. morgan, the quarterly results were not bad at all. they reported a ford guide for expenses that was much higher than what everyone was expecting and over the long term that's not bad but it's hard to beat a lot of these expectations right now. that's the big takeaway -- fundamentals are solid, but things are priced in and will have to go better than that.

haidi: even when we have fourth-quarter earnings that do better or meet expectations, not all of the banks tend to trade hyder -- tend to trade higher. what's going to be the drag on stock performance? eric: a couple of big drivers -- one is interest rates. i think everyone agrees they are going to go higher in the u.s., but there is active debate about how much higher and how quickly and what the economic impact is going to be. i would say right now in the bank stocks, there is a decently positive outlook priced in as far as we are going to get a series of six or seven or eight rate hikes and the economy is going to be able to bear that. i think that's going to be a big driver if rate hikes are more rapid and the economy comes an

even stronger. that could push things higher. loan growth is another big one where if long growth can come in exceptionally strong, things like high single digits or double digits for the industry, especially in certain parts. i think that is the game we are playing now where you need exceptional results to move the needle. decent results are already priced in. haidi: who will do well in advisory fees? eric: bank of america hasn't reported yet, but that is one where they have a big advisory business. wells fargo has already reported. they are losing advisors overall. the productivity is going up, i think you will see decent results for advisory fees in general with assets having grown. the wealth industry has been a good space to be in and for

that, there is strength across the board in general. shery: how much willy's banks struggle with rising wage pressures customer? goldman sachs is expected to have a payout for its top 1% in the millions, multiple of millions of dollars. at the same time, there is the broader inflationary trend, not to mention that the competition for talent is really tough right now. eric: that's a great point and something people will be paying attention to. for example, with jp morgan's earnings, they broke out there expense increase into two categories and one of them, they called structural increases. by that, you can assume one of the major drivers was wage increases driven by inflation. that was an expected 6% increase in 2022 and that's like put that

in the backdrop of 6% or 7%, wage inflation picking up. that's a kind of number you did not use to. definitely expect to pickup and expense increases driven by wage inflation. you've seen j.p. morgan say they -- say that is going to play out across the street. shery: eric compton with his take on the banks earnings season. let's dig deeper into wells fargo because they reported tepid growth in the fourth quarter but say borrowing is likely to pick up as clients start to take on debt again and government stimulus wanes. the cfo told bloomberg consumers have a lot of liquidity to grow the economy. >> we did see in the quarter continued progress and i think you saw that through the numbers we saw. ultimately -- both on the consumer side as well as a

commercial site. on the consumer side, we saw growth in auto, cars, underneath, we saw growth in our nonconforming mortgage portfolio as well. we started to see some of that growth materialize which will be a good thing. >> on auto loans, can you give more perspective there? if i'm reading the data correctly, a lot of it was higher value of the loans themselves. was the volume and loans higher? >> we had a record origination quarter again, the third quarter in a row. about two thirds are auto businesses used cars, so we are benefiting from higher used car prices but we are also seeing the buy-in be really strong there as well. the new car market is a little more constrained, but we are seeing the growth come through in used car buying, which is good. >> inflation could impact

consumer spending and on the other hand, we have higher interest rates. i had wonder -- i wonder how much those interest rates could stifle the loan growth and deter consumers from taking on more loans? >> you have to first start with the fact that we are talking about raising rates means we have a strong economy underneath. you see that in consumer spending, you see that in the equity markets and loan growth. coupled with that, consumers still have a lot of liquidity. it may be off the peaks we saw a couple of quarters ago but on average, 30% more in consumer deposit accounts. that should help consumers continue to be out there growing the economy. rates will be helpful for us and we talked about that in terms of the net interest income. but it's a good sign the economy continues to be pretty strong underneath, which should be good

for the rest of the year. >> the on the consumer business, you did show some strides in your investment banking business. i'm wondering about plans to grow that business more into this year and how competitive you think it could be. >> we think we have a lot of opportunity in the investment banking business, in particular as you think about going after the opportunity where we have a great market share. we've talked about that opportunity for the last few quarters. we think there's a lot of room to continue to grow and we are adding people in the commercial bank and investment bank and that is in the context of us continuing to execute on our agenda while we are able to make those investments to go after that opportunity, which we think will be significant over time. >> talk about those investments and adding those people where you want to expand. you're talking about 500 million -- how are you having to compete

for the right sort of talent right now? >> it is certainly a competitive market and we've seen some wage inflation. that $500 million is above and beyond normal increases we see in pay each year. part of that is us increasing our minimum pay across the board somewhere between $18 and $22 depending where you are in the country. we are seeing that have an impact on both recruiting and retention and we are going to continue to have to be competitive but we think we are able to do that and we seem good ability to attract people to the platform and that's in the context of us being able to manage overall expenses down as we look at 2022. haidi: that was the wells fargo cfo speaking with us. you can go to bloomberg for more on bank earnings. a lot going on this week. we will get commentary and

analysis from bloomberg's expert editors. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

shery: take a look at crypto assets -- we are seeing a little stabilization after they fell to that september low. seesawing throughout the weekend and this coming at a time when

we continue to see perhaps more pressure on these moves by central bank to tighten monetary policy, the end of the ez monetary policy around the world pressuring the index. perhaps we are seeing a little upside in the session given the findings they are planning to create their own crypto currencies and own and ftes. having a little optimism to those who think the 40,000 level at bitcoin was already the bottom. haidi: it is fascinating, the walmart story that we can determine from these huge trademarks and they covered things like the potential to make and sell virtual goods, decor, electronics and personal care products. it represents a significant step for walmart and mainstream retail in general as we see a

lot of studies on how to participate in the metaverse and in august, saying they were in a position to develop the digital currency and growth as well as looking at crypto-related opportunity investments and partnerships. they were recruiting for a role that would be working in that part of the business. very interesting when it comes to this idea of walmart connect and some of the filings we saw at the end of the year. let's get a check of the latest business flash headlines. the bank of nanjing planning to boost its holding to take control of its finance business. it intends to hold talks with shareholders about acquiring the stake and a deal would need regulatory approval. the consumer finance approval is 1% as of june last year.

hpsc -- india's largest private lender reported income of 1.4 billion dollars, up 18% from one year ago and beating analyst estimates. loans jumped 5% during this time with the bank stepping up retail lending after the are b.i. put up ban on issuing new credit cards. a proposed semiconductor deal raise antitrust concerns and germany. it offered a range instead but said they have received limited feedback from authorities and it can be closed if the takeover is not approved by january 30 first. u.k. news is reporting -- that's more than double the salary of the company's founder and ceo.

the apparel maker is aiming to attract experts in e-commerce and supply chain. taking a look at some of the stocks we will be watching ahead of the market open -- after pay will be removed from the fx 200 upon its acquisition by block, formally known as square. -- formerly known as square. also watching oil stocks -- a high -- a hot start we've had to the year, set to continue with oil prices continuing to rally -- consumption trends at this point withstanding the important ofhe omicron spread. still ahead, we look at the factors for a slowdown in china's gdp growth and what action that pboc might take. it does look like a different

story out of japan where higher economic growth and graded corporate earnings are expected this year. we discussed what could spear the policy decision with a former boj policy board member. daybreak: asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: a very good morning. we are counting down to asia's major shery: shery: market opens. welcome to daybreak asia -- our top stories this hour -- asian stocks set for a steady trading ahead of china's gdp data. expectations are for the weakest growth in more than a year. china also grappling with the spread of covid-19 -- omicron