conspiracy for his alleged role in the january 2020 insurrection. it was likely to be a drawnout fight over the serious charges stemming from the assault on the capital. elma rhodes entered the plea today during a virtual hearing. he and others are accused of conspiring to wildly prevent the certification of joe biden as president. the u.s. troops on heightened alert for deployment to increase nato forces in eastern europe are "ready to go at a moments notice." the white house deputy national security advisor told cnn today that this is not an aggressive step i need to. he called it a defensive stance and "a reassurance" to what russia has done. another missile test from north korea. kim jong-un's regime appears to have fired two cruise middles of

its east coast. north korea has testfired more missiles this month than any other time since august 2019. it has also warned you as it may and it's five-your halt on tests of nuclear devices and the long-range missiles to deliver them. parts of greece and turkey, people are still digging out from a rear storm that dropped as much as 30 inches of snow in some areas. the greek government ordered businesses and public services to shut down for a second day. rescue crews in istanbul and athens are still working to clear roads. so far more than 3500 people have been rescued from vehicles that were stranded for as long as 24 hours. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: it is 1:00 in new york, 7:00 in berlin and 2:00 a.m. in , hong kong. i'm matt miller. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. market volatility continues, stocks in the red, facing another day of heavy volume and decent swings. we have you covered on all the movement. this only comes as the fomc kicks off its two day meeting. we will talk about how it will affect the markets. and we will talk about where crypto stand with austin reid with falconx. first, a quick check of where we are in the markets. the s&p is down a little more than 2%.

it had fallen further but come back a bit, now back around the 2% level. the nasdaq down about 3%. tech stocks leading the way down because of interest-rate concerns, although rates right now are falling as investors by bonds. it pushes the yield down, treating at 1.7529. the bloomberg dollar index which has been acting like a safe haven continues to gain ground, trading at 1177. bridgewater associates ray dalio says markets are having to adjust to the prospects of fed lift off. >> the federal reserve has been behind the curve, slower to tighten monetary policy. as a result, we are starting to see the rise in interest rates, to be able to deal with that. as that happens, all assets compete with each other. that means all of the other assets have to adjust. we are in the process of making that kind of adjustment.

matt: joining us now is katie greifeld as well as betsey stevenson, professor of public policy and economics at the university of michigan, also a bloomberg columnist. katie, let me start with you and ask you about the insane swings we have seen yesterday. bespoke was telling us only the sixth time on record since 1980 that we have seen a decline of more than 4% and then finishing in a recovery. katie: those numbers are pretty staggering. history is not on our side here. also if you look at one month out from those six declines we have had, the median decline was about 5.5%. three month out it even worse. the median decline was 7.9%. we will see if history holds this time but not a great track record. you are definitely seeing some of that anxiety play out today.

matt: let's get to betsey and ask what is causing this. we have been expecting the fed to raise rates for some week because of the rising inflation numbers. the market was predicting two, dots said three, goldman sachs said four, now some are saying more. why are we seeing markets in no way freak out as this two day meeting kicks off? betsey: the pandemic has been really disruptive in creating enormous amount of uncertainty. if you want to take the glass half-full perspective, why have markets been so stable and smooth as we go through a period where we don't know what is going on? i think they are reacting right now to the fact that everyone is saying, we have higher inflation then we expected, much higher than anyone was forecasting a year ago, six months ago, the fed will have to raise rates.

maybe it is causing people to say what else is out there that we don't know? i will tell you some of the things we don't know. one of the things we have inflation, what we can produce in the united states is lower today because of the pandemic. how quickly that will recover, not just recovering in terms of getting us back to where we were pre-pandemic, but getting us back to that level of potential output, growth rate of output that we had before. we are interconnected in the world and there are a lot of global uncertainties in front of us right now, combined with the fed needing to raise rates. there is a fear that we have recessionary pressures going forward because of those global problems, or another variant. there is some concern about how well the fed's tools will work

in fighting bad times that may come in the future. katie: i would love to get your thoughts on something i've heard about over the last few weeks, basically that the fed put is dead. they will not ride to the rescue this time. if you look at the goldman sachs financial conditions index, it is at the tightest level since april 2021. matt: can i just point out that we have a financial conditions index on the bloomberg terminal. katie: i hope i don't get in trouble for that one. everyone seems to look at the goldman sachs one. financial conditions are tightening. what does that due to to the fed? betsey: they understand they have to balance economic recovery with upper pressure on prices. what has been really heroic and fantastic of that policy is they are keeping their eyes on a full

recovery. while people have been pointing out very tight labor markets, i want to remind people that the on appointment rate for african americans is still over 7%. that is not really an acceptable unemployment rate for any group of people in the u.s. the fed had decided they will look at these broader indicators and try to get us to a full recovery. when we see 7%, annual inflation, it is time for the fed to make monetary policy a little less accommodative and to move it toward neutral, realize that we have had accommodative monetary policy since the beginning of the pandemic. it has done a really great job of steering us toward a recovery, and we are in a much better place than we would have been, if the fed had not been accommodative, but there is broad consensus right now that it is time for them to move toward a more neutral monetary stance. matt: i will ask my producer,

pull up the financial conditions for us. it is interesting for us to look at how much they have tightened over the last week or two. betsey, as we look at that, let me ask you, what is the risk that the fed tightens too much as they execute want to trade of tightening? is there a possibility that they push us back into a recession? betsey: i have a lot of confidence the fed will not push us back into recession. a lot of people are calling for the fed to move quite sharply, and i would be very surprised if we saw anything outside of what most are expecting, a 25 basis point increase in interest rates today, announced for march. there are some who are saying the fed should move four or five times as fast as that, should be

increasing rates sooner, that they should be increasing by more. i think the fed will take a steady position and start to move us toward a more neutral monetary policy. the conditions indicate that is the right thing to do. we are also coming out of this omicron wave, we have seen it peak overall, still has a ways to go in some parts of the u.s. we know the economy strengthens whenever the pandemic receipts. people are happy to get out of their house and do things. not just that, people are able to go to work and not get sick. keep in mind that at the end of december, early january, 14 million people were reporting in the census that they were not at work because of some aspect of covid, either had covid, have to take care of somebody. matt: is everyone going to go back to work or is work from home the new normal for a large portion? betsey: the people who went home

because they had covid are going back. let's not get confused with the labor force participation with people unable to work because they are sick. omicron cost a lot of illness. people focus on the death rate, but when it comes to producing things in the economy, days homesick, whether it is days or weeks, they subtract from our ability to produce, and that is going on around the globe. that is why we are unable to meet demand right now with supply. katie: i want to rewind to something you said, the possibility of a 50 basis point hike. i know it is far outside the consensus but some are talking about it. the five-year option at the treasury just had was very strong, a lot of demand. matt: i'm glad you point that out. our producer is obsessed with the treasury options, but it's important to look at them when we see these kinds of market

routes. when you see this kind of volatility across markets, it's great to see a sign from rates. katie: people in the primary market want to buy bonds right now, but how insane would it be to see the fed hike by 50 basis points? any possibility that they would do that at this point in time? betsey: i think there is some possibility and it would not be insane. a lot of models say that is what they should be doing. as inflation has gone up, monetary policy has become more accommodative. real interest rates are going down as they do not think because inflation is going up. there are people calling for them to raise rates faster. i don't think it would be insane for them to raise by 50 basis points, but i will still be surprised if they did. matt: glad to have you on. betsey stevenson from the university of michigan, as well as katie greifeld.

stay tuned tomorrow, 1:30 p.m. bloomberg will have special coverage of the fed decision. bitcoin back on the rise after it went through some wild swings, now gaining more than 1%. we will talk about volatility in a market that is not new to it. cryptocurrencies with austin reid, with digital trading platform falconx. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> an amazing accomplishment to have programmed it, to have it 11 years that it is not been hacked about used, but it is a vulnerable incident because they can track who is operating on it. it will be outlawed probably by different governments. in terms of its size, it has issues. i think too much attention is spent on crypto. matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. that was bridgewater associates ray dalio speaking to david rubenstein about his concerns surrounding crypto. those comments coming as bitcoin climbs back above the steep declines -- after the steep declines we have seen recently. let's bring in austin reid, chief of staff at digital trading platform falconx.

let me get your take on what we have seen the past few days, the markets have been insane. what do you make a bitcoin's movements and the correlation we have seen two other risk assets? austin: it's an interesting question. thank you for having me. what we have seen over the past month and a half has been an increasing correlation between bitcoin itself and the broader crypto ecosystem with high-growth tech stocks. if we compare crypto, specifically bitcoin and ethereum, versus other high-growth fintechs, we have seen relatively strong performance in contrast to those names that have traded down over 50%. that said, we are still seeing significant volatility in the market, continued correlation too many tech names, which

resulted in the pump yesterday once we saw the equity markets turnaround. matt: have you seen standup performance among the big names? bitcoin, solana, ether, avalanche, have there been any big moves that seem interesting to you? austin: what we saw from an institutional perspective over the last six months was more institutions diving deeper into the crypto asset class, allocating two more tokens themselves. on average our client base is holding at least five different tokens. the reason i mention that, one of the core theses to which people were expanding their crypto portfolios was allocated to other layer ones. what we have seen over this last selloff is an increase in correlation among a number of those assets. if we look at solana, avalanche,

layer two solutions, those are trading down roughly 33% over the last week. vol in those early names that institutions have allocated to over the past six months. matt: we have seen this decline in bitcoin at the same time that mainstream media has been pointing out to people not in the community that there is still a ton of fraud in de-fi, for example, which market participants know about, but others didn't. do you think that has to do with the pullback we have seen in the tokens? austin: i think the pullback is driven by macro factors. if we are looking at defi more specifically, it is an earlier

state segment of the crypto market. we see increasing volatility in those earlier stage segments as they work to defined use cases, basically allocations among both institutional and retail customers. i don't think it is a driving factor necessarily to the recent selloff as much as the uncertainty on the macro side that we see affecting a lot of our institutional customers. matt: what is the new thing we need to learn about? decentralized autonomous organizations? austin: good question. we have seen a lot of activity in the dow space. interestingly, this month, nft volume, specifically decoupling from broader crypto market volume. we have seen a number of our clients who originally allocated to the crypto space with the thesis that bitcoin and other assets would be a good inflation hedge, starting to look more at the nft market. as we have seen crypto markets

be at roughly year long those from an exchange perspective, we are seeing record nft volumes and a bit of a decoupling in the asset classes versus the broader crypto ecosystem. seeing more interest in that space. matt: thanks for joining us, alstom reed, chief of staff at l connects. -- falconx. how volatility is leading to a record volume in etf's. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. it is time for the weekly segment, etf iq. monday selloff led to a record trading with $478 billion in daily dollar turnover, surpassing the previous record of $404 billion in february

2020. joining us now is eric balchunas. where did we see all of the action? >> etf volume correlates almost like we call the people fear gauge. whenever there is fear in the market, etf volume spike. the action was really in the q's. i think that is because there is a chase out of the growth stocks. a lot of the people are repositioning. ark also saw $4.7 billion. a lot of people trading ark. where the action was not was bond etf's. march 2020 they were center stage with all of the discounts. this is really an equity situation.

the volume has decreased a lot today. probably will end up half of where it was yesterday. an amazing day of volume. 99 different etf's saw a record volume yesterday. matt: i wanted to ask about the leverage, triple leveraged etf's. the daily direction semiconductors three times shares have some amazing inflows. why is that? >> people are really looking at the semi space. i think people are looking for a rebound here. other sectors like financials have seen influence. we have seen people repositioning in the sectors. there are places catching bids within equities but they are

usually related to the fed. small caps is another area. they led the intraday rally yesterday, so they are seeing some inflows. matt: thanks very much, eric balchunas. the etf master talking to us about a record week. we will come back and talk more about the markets. they continue to drop with the s&p 500 down 1.6%. this is bloomberg. ♪

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mark: welcome to the bnn bloomberg tv audience. i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news.

pfizer is beginning the study of a covid-19 vaccine that specifically targets the omicron variant. the drug partner and its -- company and its partner biontech says it will look into it. earlier this month, the pfizer ceo said the companies were developing a hybrid vaccine that would combine its original shot within omicron fighting formulation .global news 24 the european union is aiming to make travel within the block easier. it's adopting a new system of covid related travel rules based more on a person's vaccination status than on where they are coming from. travelers with a valid digital certificate would not be subject to additional restrictions. exceptions will still be allowed for travelers from high risk zones. the head of the world health organization is moving closer to serving a second term after securing the groups nomination. he has taken center stage since

the coronavirus first emerged last year. he repeatedly lashed out at about the countries and vaccine manufacturers for doing too little to distribute shots to poorer nations. he also faced criticism that the who was slow to call the outbreak a pandemic and to emphasize the airborne nature of transmission. the days of number two pencils and filling in bubbles are going away for high school students. the college board says the sat is going digital. it will make the change internationally next year, and in the u.s. in 2024. the goal is to make the test more relevant as more colleges make it optional for admission. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.

♪ jon: i'm jon erlichman. welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: i'm matt miller. here are the top stories that we are following for you from around the world. the historic rebound in stocks yesterday proven short-lived with major averages slumping again as investors remain on age over the fed and tensions in around ukraine. we will look at the outlook of the credit market and see -- for the credit market, see if that part of the market is handling the recent volatility better than equities. shopify stock is falling amid the selloff. we will talk about the possible curse of canadian tech. jon: thanks a lot. in matt's home state, they are

known for some epic roller coasters, and it's felt like that in the last couple of days. you were talking about that reversal in the trading session. looking at a negative session once again. coming off the lows of the morning but when you look at and they'd continue to struggle today, like netflix, zoom, it's a reminder that investors have been in risk off mode. the s&p with a decline of more than 2%. with that technology theme, the klein in the nasdaq of more than 2%. i know we are all getting ready for a new interest-rate environment. it really depends on what market we are talking about when we use words like "panic." if you look at credit spreads -- and this chart gives you a better sense of what is happening in corporate market. it would suggest a certain amount of zen, chill.

the reality is the corporate bond market benefited the last couple of years from this low rate environment, got comfortable with issuing a lot of debt, and even with potential yields going where they go, it seems like there is still a level of calm that we are seeing but we will find out with time. matt: you have to say -- wait a second. why does anyone tell you about this? the corporate bond market had a horrible start to the year. we have also see financial conditions really tightened up. we were talking with katie greifeld a half hour ago. on the bloomberg you can see our financial conditions index. it has really tightened up over the last week or two. obviously, not as bad as the depth of march 2020, but the fed has to weigh that risk as they begin to raise rates.

jon: absolutely. let's dig deeper into this. tracy chen is with brandywine global investments as their portfolio manager, zeros in on the reality of the credit market. as you get ready to hear what the fed has to say this week, what are the things you are watching and listening for? tracy: hi, jon. i think the key thing that i will be looking for is how hawkish or dovish the fed will be. right now, the market has been pricing in four hikes, so that is already pretty hawkish. in terms of tapering, also looking at whether they will quicken the pace of tapering. right now, the market is already pricing in a quickening of the pace. that is what i'll be looking for tomorrow. matt: it seems like our

expectations for rate increases had been pushed out. initially, the market was pricing in two. the dot plot said three. goldman sachs said four, and now the market is pricing that in. it appears that that has the ability to get more hawkish if it needs to. for jerome powell, pretty hawkish. tracy: looking at the unemployment number, it is actually below the natural rate, so i think they are thinking the job market is pretty good. also, inflation is pretty high. cpi is already exceeding 7%. they are field full they are behind the curve. the market is pushing the fed to be more hawkish. jon: we made that point that there are plenty of companies in corporate america and around the world frankly that have gotten quite comfortable with issuing

debt these last few years with low rates and may continue to do so. can you give us a sense of how you are positioning in the market for this new environment? tracy: i think it's a very exciting market, interesting times. if you look at the big picture, we are going through the diversions of central bank policies. on the one hand, you have a more hawkish fed, and more easing coming out of china. this divergence of central bank policy will be the primary driver of the market for this year. as a credit investor, any asset class that has been benefiting from the fed easing for the past decade will be facing a kind of repricing starting from the nasdaq, stock market and credit market. you can see cryptocurrencies all behaving violently. but the credit market performance had been relatively

benign. high yield spread only widened by about 30 basis points since the low around 300. right now it is mid 300s. since september, the high yield spread widened, so that will be the next step to go. i was actually contemplating what would be the fed put strike for credit markets. i think that could easily go to 450 to 500. i think there is more room to go. i was also looking at the last time the fed hiked in 2018. credit spread didn't move much in the beginning. they only moved until the later stage when the fed went a little excessive in their hikes. matt: in every hiking cycle, you see the curve really come down. i wonder if you are worried

about an inversion at the end of the cycle, does the fed go too far and push us into recession? tracy: i think the fed will be more careful. the curve is already very flat. that is why i was thinking maybe tomorrow we are in for a surprise, more dovish tilt. the fed will be cautious not to push the curve to invert. that would not be a good sign. we already see some pmi numbers out of the u.s. slowing down, especially services. that could be due to the impact from omicron. but due to the base effect, the economy this year, we could be facing a kind of slow down, not only in the u.s. but also europe. matt: great to get your insight, appreciate your time. tracy chen, brandywine global investments portfolio manager. the s&p crawled back some of its

losses, now only done 1.2%. the dow is currently falling only 150 points. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. let's go back to the volatility in the markets, as u.s. stocks, for the moment, are bouncing off of the lows. at this point yesterday, we had seen the s&p down for percent, then back up to losses of only 1.5%. let's bring in chief equity

strategist gina martin adams. we have been talking about the bespoke investment group pulled out this stat, only seen a turnaround from a decline like that six times since 1988, and it was not good news for stocks going forward. is this a real bruiser for the bulls out there? gina: let me give you another step that may make you feel better. we have only seen oversold levels like we saw yesterday 15 times since 2010. your average gain in the week after those oversold levels is more than 2%. there are a few ways to look at the market. i think you can take some solace from the price action today. we did open relatively low, we even went back to test some of the lower levels of yesterday, but never got to that midday low. as long as we are merely testing levels and still incrementally moving higher, that low from yesterday holds. it's important to watch the

midday level from yesterday for signs of weakness emerging. if we break through it, not a lot of support underneath it. we need to be somewhat wary, but for now, investors are willing to buy the dip, shown by today's price action. jon: when you think about championship sports teams needing to have a bit of a shakeup, that sense of maybe we will not win, your team has been putting together analysis on whether or not this market was in need of a shakeup to get us away from the idea of melting up. how many record highs did we see the s&p 500 last year? is there an argument to be made that we will look back several months from now, and possibly for those bulls, see this as a healthy phenomenon for the markets? gina: certainly a high probability possibility considering economic conditions.

we are coming off of our highest momentum in terms of economic growth recorded in early 2021, but we still have very solid economic conditions behind this rally. our models suggest getting about 50% earnings growth for the s&p 500. double digit earnings growth is nothing to scoff at. at the same time, we need to absorb the reality of tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates, which does suppress stocks. we think about this lockable longer bull market and people, and how extraordinary the gains have been since 2009 but since then we have had four significant corrections of more than 15%, including 2011, 2015, 2018, all affiliated with monetary policy shifts. we should expect rocky conditions to develop from time to time. monetary policy changes have accompanied some of the 50% declines each time, but as long

as economic growth is the ultimate outcome, as long as earnings are growing long-term, there is not a lot to see from these corrections. they are short-term, can be painful, but ultimately provide opportunity for those with a longer-term loans. matt: are you expecting earnings growth still around 8%, 10% this year? what kind of valuations do you think the market will reward us with at the end of the year? gina: we are expecting 15% eps growth, sickened that look better than long-term growth. nothing like 2021, but 50% earnings growth, double long-term average earnings growth for the s&p 500 this year. part of that is an extraordinary rally in energy sector earnings which is behind the curve of the rest of the groups. generally strong earnings. our model suggests that stock multiples are still a little bit too high, imputing a 2% treasury yield with a relatively flat

yield in comparison to where we were at peak suggest the multiple should be closer to 22 times earnings. we have some multiple compression likely this year. jon: gina martin adams, chief equity strategist for bloomberg intelligence. great context on what is going on. we want to go closer into some of the specific stocks we have been watching today. kriti gupta has our stock of the hour. >> a lot of the pain since the downturn has been concentrated not just in tech but semiconductors specifically. that will be key to look at in light of the supply chain concerns you are seeing around the world. that has bolstered price of the stock index. to see the correction concentrated here will be something to watch. when you look at that volatility that we saw yesterday, most market consensus said that is not the best sign of what is to come. we have not seen that that many times historically. matt: i keep looking for a trend

here, and i don't mean over the years going back to 1980, but today compared to yesterday. we were down big during my radio show -- i am on from 10:00 to noon every day on bloomberg radio with paul sweeney. we come back on this program, and by the time i'm leaving, we are back in positive territory. are we going to see the same thing happened today? kriti: i cannot predict it, but yesterday you started to see a lot of hedging demand concentrated in the nasdaq. to see that happen again would tell you there are some big institutional bets being made from hedge funds that had liquidated their funds in the black friday selloff. a big thing to keep in mind is put volume and how much is happening in the options market. matt: i got a message yesterday from peter tchir.

he said that his capitulation, we are going to see a bounce now. i am waiting for peter to message me again. one thing i heard from triggers yesterday was that, we are going to buy the dip at the european close. are we going to see that kind of catalyst again? kriti: maybe not the european close, but around 2:00, accelerated in the 3:00 and 4:00 hour. that historically happened a lot in 2020 when you saw for investors hop in. this is why the dollar is so important, creating that gateway for foreign investors to hop in head of the asian open, just a few hours after the u.s. close. jon: thank you so much, kriti gupta. we are also seeing some headlines about bank of america bringing staff back to offices as new covid cases decrease. looking for some positive signs out there. that is one that we will

continue to track. we will keep talking about the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪

jon: this is bloomberg markets. i'm jon erlichman. we talk about the u.s. tech giant. we have a canadian company that's been growing pretty quickly, shopify. as those companies get bigger and a country like canada, they have that outsize influence. you think back to the days when people were talking about businesses which were put out of business by the likes of cisco, the blackberry story. given that we have seen shopify lose 50% of its value, we wanted

to speak to somebody who used to battle it out with nortel during the .com bubble. the former ceo cisco. >> the tech industry, a key competitor in nortel, they disappeared versus cisco. the canadian startups today are much different. shopify is an example. stocks got beat up a little bit but that is e-commerce. i think they will come through just fine. jon: you are looking at a company that is still expected to grow in the neighborhood of 30% this year. that is not going away. what have to watch is whether analysts change their tune on where stocks go, and that disconnect that we have seen of every technology stock as of late. matt: i don't think there is any national reason for the problem.

certainly, there wouldn't be a real curse of a canadian company. obviously, you have some really big industry there, canada has excelled in a lot of places where the u.s. has not. you have real bitcoin etf's. you took the lead really in terms of legalization of marijuana, a lot of other things. i want to mention, as we get to the end of the program, what we are watching in the equity markets. the s&p 500 -- my producer put it well. this could be the highest low of the session. or will we swing back up to gains again in the last couple of hours? we are seeing the s&p now lose less than 1%. the loss is less than .9%. at one point today, we were down at 4286.

right now, trading right back at 4370. we have made back a lot of the slump that we saw today. it could be that we see another incredible reversal. jon: it would be amazing. our case study, what happened in yesterday's trading session, coming off of those lows, the first time the dow had dropped a thousand points and then ended positive. we will have a lot more market coverage coming up. for matt and myself, this is bloomberg. ♪

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mark: i am mark crumpton was "first word" news u.s.

user on heightened alert for deployment for nato troops in europe are ready to go at a moments notice. white house security adviser told cnn today this is not an aggressive step up by nato. he called a defensive stance and a reassurance in response to what russia has done. more problems for british prime minister boris johnson over allegations of rule breaking parties during the pandemic london police are investigating the claims. the prime minister's office has confirmed that staff gathered in downing street to celebrate his birthday during the first lockdown in 2020. a government report on the parties may be published this week. that could add to the clinical pressure on the prime ministers. rates of covid-19's view on this and death fell in the united states during the omicron-- severe dullness death fell during in--severe illness and d