>> let's look at how stocks fared today and the week. the intraday chart of the s&p over the past five days, oscillation from gains to losses, but lower lows towards the end of the week. friday, we started talking about the kleins. we ended this friday with the weekly gain of about .8% on the s&p. similar story with other indices. the nasdaq composite closed higher on the weekly, only .1%, but people will take it. a 3% rally this friday. the two year yield higher by 17 basis points.

we did not see those types of gains on the longer end of the curve. a flattening of the yield curve. dollar strength on the day and week. keep an eye on base metals. the commodity space sending mixed signals. base metals down on a weekly basis, the most we have seen in quite some time. that is all we have for this afternoon. triple take starts right now. >> chaim caroline hyde and what a week, what a month it will be. the end of the month monday. as romaine was saying, check out the rally to end this week. the nasdaq ends flat. imagine that. it was in bear market territory, the worst month since 2008, managing to crescendo into the end. we have seen similar to us reversals every day.

indices green for the way. seemed unimaginable considering where we started. we will give you the triple take on what drove this comeback, discussed one stop that got left behind as we still talk about inflation and supply-chain woes. >> and what turnaround we have had today. started lower, ended a little higher. the question is, can insisting any of these gains into next month -- is, can it sustain any of these gains into next month? >> yeah. the big rebound here, even with that, it will shape up to be a relatively down month for the s&p. pretty gupta joining us now, bloomberg cross asset reporter. this will probably be still the worst month we have seen since march of 2020. >> that is a superlative we can put into the history books. whether or not it is a turnaround, you have hit significant milestones not just

going back to 2008 but in the last two years, the pandemic era. the last technical correction we saw since before this was back in september 2020 ahead of the elections related volatility, and even after that, you saw a 6% drop. if feels like forever since we were talking about the elections but that wasn't what was driving the technical correction. i have some numbers if you don't mind. the average s&p 500 correction has been 14% down throughout history. they have gained an average of 17.7%, only negative once over that same time. that's coming from ubs of course. you can see that if this is the bottom, if, the turnaround is looking good respective to the drop. >> given that people have lost money this year, many funds this month, do you think there are dip buyers ready to come in still given that people are walking into next month with hurt egos a little bit? >> hurt egos, portfolios.

yes and no. let's talk about the players. we will have to separate the retail from the institutional. looking at securities data that tracks some retail buying, turns out they have been buying consistently every day barring one day of aggressive selling a couple weeks ago, but they have been consistently buying, just not enough to move the market. on the institutional side, a lot of the selling has been driven by algorithms, tentacles. -- algorithms, technicals. >> we are blaming algorithms? >> it makes sense. you have abigail doolittle for weeks talking about these technical levels it continues to breach. >> we did a whole show about robots and not talk about algorithms. >> will the robots take us over? >> i don't know. >> there are certainly already ai driven anchors in china. pretty gupta, thank you. we have to bring the opera

rhythms. let's go to a real human with insight on whether to blame the machine or the human, cameron crise. i'm getting notes that some people are trying to front run this play. are you seeing that question mark >> that is part of what drove the rally today. the rebalancing is not just the last day, but really the last three to five of the month where you see that materialized. arguably, maybe some of the rebalancers were bidding down 10% on the month, which is kind of where we stopped a couple times over the past few days, and, in the afternoon, in what i think we can agree is terrible liquidity, if there was some flow to start a more aggressive rebalancing, there was no one left to take the other side and up we went. >> what is the conviction going forward once we get into

february and beyond? >> i think the issues that got us down here have not gone away yet. people are still marking out their prognosis for what the fed could do this year. i think somebody, i cannot remember who, said seven hikes this year. >> bank of america. >> that would have been unthinkable a couple weeks ago. importantly, the market has not marked off its estimate or pricing of the terminal rate for the fed, so basically, the thinking is the rate hikes that were priced for this year and next year have been telescoped into the next 15 months or so. now, the big question is will the market be disappointed in the sense of is the fed going to hike and then keep going?

the last several cycles, the market has tended to be too optimistic about how little they will hike and quickly they will stop, so that's something to consider for the future, but today at least, we got the employment cost index, which perhaps provides some comfort that the inflation train, well still moving too quickly, is not off the rails. >> you are writing about the cftc positioning. if the bond market and bond traders are telling you something the stock market is not is what i am wondering. >> i would be weary of saying that -- i would be wary of saying that. obviously, the stock market plays role as well -- plays a role as well, but crucially, the credit market has been well behaved, so that sort of eliminates one potential source of a flight to safety, to

treasuries. typically, the bond market moves in a very predictable fashion. when they expect the fed to start hiking, they start flatten the curve and that's more or less what we have seen. >> how muc are earnings and earnings results playing into the moves we have seen? >> today, the biggest company in the world had good earnings, and they were up 5%, 6%, so that's obviously -- that's obviously beneficial. then again, tesla had pretty good earnings on a backward looking basis and they got pain yesterday, so we have a lot of big companies, a lot of market cap left to report over the next couple weeks and i think that will, to some extent, drive the tone of the market, but we still have the macro, and the

sort of withdrawal of liquidity is still a theme that may ebb and flow but will be with us certainly for the next several months. >> market strategist cameron crise helping us break down some numbers we have seen today. another number raising eyebrows is the pay numbers for the goldman sachs. >> this is after we have gotten morgan stanley and jp morgan already. we have the payout for david solomon after a banner year at goldman sachs, $35 million, including base pay of $2 million, unchanged from 2020, as well as annual -- >> unchanged? >> that's the base. let's look at the rise in the variable compensation, $33 million, 70% higher, in the form of performance-based stock. >> he is doing ok. >> $35 million for solomon.

another executive at morgan stanley got a $35 million package, and jamie dimon. who is going to quibble over $500,000? i mean, is there some coordination. obviously they are not coordinating, but there -- but is there some metric they are all falling into? >> you have to make sure your cvo doesn't leave the bank. at the same time, you see the banks have different metrics in which they say they are judging the ceos on. at morgan stanley and jp morgan, they did fight some of the inclusion and equity across society that the bank has been moving toward, but a lot of it is tied to pure performance, make no mistake. >> james gorman got a 6% pay rise. jamie dimon did get 10%. what is solomon? >> a lot more.

variable compensation is 70%. >> that's a little bit higher than inflation. >> remember, we were looking at issues that had tied some of the pay reduction there, and you have to think on top of this the special bonuses that the bank executives talked about. >> we should point out too that you conceal the big ceo pays on the bloomberg terminal. if they saw what some of these tech ceos are making -- >> or private equity ceos -- >> they will cry little bit. i'm kidding. caterpillar, some concerns not only about them but the broader industrial space. we will break that down a little more and see what the potential ramifications could be ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are talking earnings today and will focus on caterpillar result. they came out earlier. when you look at the bottom and top line numbers, they were a disappointment because of some of the commentary caterpillar gave with regard to the supply chain pressures they face and the idea that demand in china may not be as strong as what it was in the past. for more, brooke sutherland, bloomberg opinion columnist who knows everything about this space. let's start with the demand side of the equation because it was mixed. they said we are doing all right in north america but do not expect the boom we saw in china to continue. >> that is where the weak spot is, and specifically in their construction industry segment. this of course has links to what

we are seeing in china with questions around property development going forward. caterpillar is not expecting very robust construction demand out of china this year. they say this is fairly isolated. they expect the rest of asia-pacific to be strong. to your point, they see strong demand and every other market they operate in, whether north american construction, energy or transportation. mining is starting to see some life in it. so i think they feel pretty good overall about the growth outlook but the constraints continue to be on the supply side. >> let's talk about that. president biden talking about supply chain issues today. a company like apple, which navigates it beautifully, and companies that have not, tesla, caps this week -- cats this week. >> the issue for caterpillar was not so much the input costs coming in out of whack with what

they expected. it is that they wanted to meet that customer demand so they made the decision to keep their factories open even when they did not have all the parts they need and to pay up premium parts options to fly parts in where they could so they could get things built and get them to the people who need them but that heard their margins. that was a decision they made in the short term. the question, do they have to continue? we got some positive comments on the supply chain from other industrial ceos. i spoke to one who said that as far as resin availability goes, they are seeing improvement. dover is seeing improvement in the cost of raw materials, but the speaking point remains -- the sticking point remains semiconductors. we are seeing so -- seeing expansion where so much equipment needs these, and they are having a hard time getting

them. >> investors trying to parse for the pain, how did they discern which companies have the most power over the pricing issues in the supply chain? >> i think we have seen very robust pricing power out of the industrial sector. looking at around 4% last quarter. estimates are now calling for 5% this quarter. the pricing power is not really the problem, just can you raise prices fast enough to get ahead of these input costs? there's a natural anchored what companies will tell you is they expect these increases to start to boost their profitability in the back half of the year. then you get that little bit of boost from the pricing power. on the positive side, we are not seeing any evidence of demand destruction from those increases. it will be natural for growth rates, orders and sales to moderate into the back half of the year and -- that's different

from demand destruction, which we are not seeing yet on the industrial side. >> brooke sutherland, our go to at bloomberg for all things industrial, thank you. a busy week for you. have a wonderful weekend. let's stay on supply chains. let's talk about what the courts are looking like, what it is like to ship things. anton pozner will join us any second to talk about international supply chain consulting, where you are trying to ship dry cargo around the world. what is it like on the seas right now? >> chaos. great to see you and happy friday. we are seeing, certainly, congestion. talked about ad nauseam and continues. we have had situations in los angeles, long beach, about 100 ships waiting in the queue.

the container ship situation is spreading to east coast ports, where you have ships waiting offshore in charleston, savannah, new york, new jersey. the issue of container ship congestion has been significantly ramped up over the past couple months, past several months. we are seeing -- >> is that because of efficiency or because they have finally gotten a handle on some of the labor issues they were dealing with? >> remain, you are seeing a shift from the west coast, to some extent, to shippers, operators looking to avoid the west coast congestion and shipping over to east coast ports, so that has been part of it, but we are seeing this now carry over into the bulk commodity industry also, steel and metals, where we have ships waiting, looking for berths in

philadelphia, houston. >> why are we seeing that in bulk? last year, we saw a lot of ports were prioritizing bulk, so we were not necessarily seeing those pileups. what has changed? >> volume has increased in steel and metals, and a shift from congested container operatio to bulk operation. take a look, for example, at a big agricultural trader that recently moved a bulk copy shipment into new orleans. that's not something typical. coffee is typically moved in containers, but they did a bulk copy shipment into the port of new orleans. we are seeing more of that. that is certainly an example of a shift out of the container world and into the bulk world. >> to the extent that you are seeing people find solutions

around some supply chain backlogs and issues you see here for so long, what are those solutions? >> yeah, sally, good question. -- yeah, should -- sonali, good question. infrastructure development, truckers to come on. the administration is putting efforts into training there, so it is multifaceted as to what is needed, but there's certainly strain everywhere, at all points. >> i want your thoughts on something tangentially related to this, and that's some of the media reports we have seen about crimes and thefts at some of these ports and warehouse facilities. these images we are seeing, is this representative of what is going on? is this a problem? >> it has always been an issue,

theft, particularly of expensive commodities, consumer goods and so forth. we have seen it with copper over the years numerous times. what you are seeing in the media right now, what's happening in los angeles county, is of course adding to the dread of bringing containers and goods and freight via los angeles, so certainly having the effect on the consumer goods and shippers looking to ship their cargo away from congested los angeles and then you are dealing with railcars being cracked open, containers being cracked open. we had a situation of a railcar being cracked open just last week with metals being taken out, so i don't think that's what the thieves were looking for, probably something easier to handle, but they ended up with metal. >> we appreciate the time. anton posner, ceo of the mercury group.

don't go anywhere. final thoughts next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> an overused phrase but certainly a wild week, up, down, finished in the green on the more important major indices, the s&p and even the nasdaq. >> it went from the -- the extraordinary week but the month is looking ugly still. >> even though we are making comparisons to 2020, you cannot use the same playbook as that. -- as then. >> you can see most of the damage done for january, down 12% on the nasdaq composite monthly, 7% -- 4% on the s&p. >> where do you hide when you have small caps, meant to be rebounding when you have a good growth story, on the downside by what, 12%?

and also big tech. you will have to start to separate the wheat from the chaff in this kind of market. >> talking about apple this week, amazon next. what else? >> meta. >> alphabet. >> this is bloomberg. ♪

>> from the heart of our

innovation money and power collide in silicon valley and beyond this is bloomberg technology with emily chang. >> i'm caroline hyde in new york in for emily chang. apple soaring on results. this is the nasdaq 100. it managed to jump 3% to end the