♪ >> i like to say the fed specializes in crowd control. they are coming undone and being compromised by inflation. >> inflation at a 7% handle is just not except about. -- not acceptable. >> i do see chairman powell wrestling with inflation as you see much higher volatility. >> it is not going to be a year of a rising tide lifting all boats. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a monday into february, and tons

of economic data. we are going to refrain 8:35 friday morn. jonathan: look out below on payrolls. the range is still wide. positive all the way down to 400,000. will it change the thinking at the fed, given this is an omicron induced slow down? tom: it will be fascinating to see. lisa hornby coming up in a moment. but i think is so important is the backdrop of this, for rowley and cosman -- for rowley -- we are doing this within slowing economic growth. that changes the dialogue. jonathan: bank of america looking for a hike at every meeting this year. seven hikes through to year-end. that is the outlier call of the moment. the direction of travel has been moving in that direction. the center of gravity, five hikes right now. that is the call on wall street.

tom: what is so important is the mix around the pandemic. we see cases rolling over, hospitalization rolling over, maybe deaths. i'm getting some constructive tone. from strategists, it is a fairly constructive tone within a lot of different angst. lisa: on the edges, there is this gross concern, and i keep going back to yield curve. is this an instructive tool that something like the u.s. economy can't really withstand higher rates for much longer term? that seems to be the suggestion. is this still a telling tool, or has it been corrupted by some of the fed policy, and frankly the international policy, at least as a pure read on what is going on? tom: we are going to interrupt the program right now. this is so important. it is about the cloud and how apple adapts to it. thursday we've got amazon. microsoft with stellar earnings

days ago. here is elliott stepping in at this moment to suggest over the weekend they take out citrix, which we use at bloomberg as part of our cloud technology. jonathan: still deploying cash even with the threat of higher interest rates beginning to work, and maybe in some cases, that is why they are getting to work. we talked about the microsoft deal. they are by for tha acquisition what the company was worth 12 months ago. it has had a big correction. tom: life goes on. you see that was in the data this morning. the vix down to 28.87. war constructive in the last two days. jonathan: she used that word corrupt, they corrupted the yield curve. [laughter] i did not miss that. the federal reserve has corrupted the yield curve. lisa: whoa, you sort of reframed it. i said it has been corrupted by policies. jonathan: i am just saying what you meant, let's be clear lisa: it is a very lisa: let's be clear.

it is a very -- let's be clear. lisa: it is a very strong word. what does that mean in terms of what we mean this money. jonathan: tends up 3% on your tenure right now -- tends up -- tens up three on your tenure right now. yields up a couple of basis points. crude still positive, $87.27. tom: curve flattening with some real velocity. $91 six cents on brent crude. we start strong with lisa hornby at schroders with a backdrop out of her rutgers economics and the great michael puerto as well. you are grounded in economic history. place the economic history right now as you allocate forward to the market. how do you combine all of the

econo babble into an investment view? lisa: i think it comes back to lisa's comment about being corrupted. [laughter] it is not yield curve. it is not just the yield curve that has been corrupted. it is all financial assets. you look at the price appreciation we had over the last couple of years. you would say nothing could justify that except for the fact that we have had trillions of dollars poured into the economy thanks to both fed and policymakers. markets now need to correct to some level of normalcy, and that is what we are seeing. we are in a transition phase now. our view on risk assets is a little bit more cautious. we have spoken about that on this show over the past couple of months. when you get valuations in the bottom quartile and the bottom decile in november, you have to be a bit more cautious in your approach to risk taking. that is where we are. we look at all in treasury

yields right now and say they offer a little bit value. the market is discounting a lot. in terms of the said, maybe we could go further, but we think we are a lot of the way there at this point. we are being cautious and waiting for the macro backdrop to stabilize the debt. hopefully the fed gets this right. the chance of that is fairly low, but hopefully the fed does navigate this fairly well and does not over tight into a swelling economy. but if they can land this well, there should be opportunities for more risk-taking later this year. jonathan: i am are lying on other programs and other networks now for fed speak because no fed official is coming back on this program anytime soon. [laughter] atlanta fed president raphael bostic opening up to be in maybe -- to be and may be quicker if they need to, not if they don't. i am wondering where the gap is between the commune case we are getting from the fed and what the market is basing and you do

think that is widespread, or do you think it narrows the next time we get the dot plot in the middle of march? lisa h: i'm seeing some of the street forecasts for has seven hikes. i said that is too much. the market -- my base case is still that they probably do 425 basis point hikes rather than 5 -- four 25 basis point hikes rather than five. i think where the gap is probably next year, the market is discounting very little. i think you probably need to shift some of what is in 2022 into 2023, so i think that is probably where the bigger gap is. the overall terminal funds rate is still fairly low in the market, so between 1.75% and 2%. i had there could be scope for that to move higher as well. lisa a: you said something earlier, the chances that the fed act well orchestrating a

soft landing is fairly low. can you walk us through what looks like if they fail to? what you see in your likely scenario in terms of tightening and subsequent economic reaction? lisa h: i think it looks a lot like what happened in 2018, where the fed was basically over tightening into a slowing economic drop, and they were forced to pivot in the first quarter, the first month of 2019. i think that is the template. this time i think there is potentially even more danger of that. a lot of the market, at least in financial asset terms, has been predicated on the fact that we have very negative real yields for quite some time. if we continue to see real yields normalize, which i think they should to some degree, that should put some pressure on how other financial assets are discounted, and that macroeconomic backdrop, that volatility is a bit concerning. it does not immediately

translate into slower economic activity, but if it happens to aggressively or too quickly and we start to see different decisions based on hiring, that could pose a challenge. so it is financial conditions ultimately we are watching. i think there's a lot of metrics that feed into that. so far they are relatively well contained. i think the other part of it is that powell was pretty clear financial conditions don't matter insofar as the household balance sheet is strong. that is what they are watching. i suppose there is a potential for a cap there -- a gap there. there are stills some excess savings. see wage gains. household net worth is high. that could probably remain a little bit stronger than the financial asset back drop for some time. jonathan: if you look across sectors just quickly, some people have been raising cash. if you look across sectors right now, what would you be using to fund that cash position, where

you would completely walk away from credit right now? can you do that on a sector to sector basis? what is the process you go through to do that? lisa h: i don't think it is as simple as that at the moment. i think you have to watch the companies you own. companies doing m&a it had little bit harder, at least at the outset. i think we have to be careful on securities selection here. i think it is about taking broad data down, but there has been sector outperformance. energy has done well. i think you have to be more specific than just say sector at this juncture. it is more about the individual names and overall level of beta in your portfolio. jonathan: good to catch up, lisa hornby of schroders on this credit market and the difficulties right now of just managing money given the volatility we have seen through 2022 subpar -- 2022 so far. lisa a: because of not just the

fed, but central banks globally and some of their interference with the market functioning. right now, the amount of debt that has negative yielding globally has fallen the least since march 2020. this is a sea change in the world economy. jonathan: we are pushing ahead to payrolls friday. median estimate, 150 thousand. we are preparing for a weaker number over at citi. their number is 70,000. they are still looking for five hikes this year. $70,000 -- 70000 and a fed that will look through the week reading. yield up three basis points on t ens. for our audience worldwide, heard on radio, seen on tv, with futures down 0.4%, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm but. u.s. senators are close to agreeing on russian sanctions, according to foreign chair bob

menendez. the measure could include penalties, even if vladimir putin does not send troops to ukraine. the biden administration will brief lawmakers this week on the standoff over ukraine. in washington, congressional democrats return to work no closer radio on president biden's tax and spending plan at a time when american families are feeling the financial squeeze of soaring prices. and simmer sentiment plummeted in january to the lowest in more than a decade -- consumer sentiment plummeted in january to the lowest in more than a decade. north korea appears to have hired one of its biggest ballistic missiles in almost five years. the missile flew eastward for 30 minutes before landing in waters outside of japan's economic zone. british prime minister boris johnson has received the report of a government investigation into the partygate scandal. the probe looks into possible

wrongdoing over parties at downing street during lockdown. earlier, investment management and vista equity have a guide to buy six tricks -- to buy citrix systems. citrix access software that is used to log onto corporate programs. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> can it be selective -- you need to be selective. to drive those earnings, the main lever is going to be pricing power. companies which have the pricing power to overcome inflation will be able to drive those earnings, and they should get rewarded this year. jonathan: brilliant from saira malik as always, nuveen chief investment officer. your markets lower. the nasdaq just about in positive territory, up by 0.04%. over the weekend, here's the story you need to read from sunday. "credit traders like the edge in the new regime. the corporate bond market used to be the early warning signal." lisa says that is no longer the case. lisa: my point being we are all

talking about the equity repricing, and people are talking about the slow down featuring into what we are seeing in the equity markets. we're not seeing the same type of repricing, and that eysenck is compelling, the idea that you are not seeing that and it is lagging behind other signals. that is not how it used to be known. jonathan: perhaps because the federal reserve has corrupted. [laughter] a brilliant piece, i have to say. the picture selection of lisa abramowicz for this article is pretty special, too. tom: i missed that. for those of you on radio, it brings me to silence. jonathan: how often are you going to publish now, every sunday? lisa: every sunday. jonathan: fantastic. tom: futures -17. the vix moves higher a point off

the bland friday close. 28.92. gina martin adams, chief equity strategist for bloomberg, i was blown away by your colleague's work on amazon. how does a pro like you frame the unimaginable spending of capex by the cloud providers? to me, i can't get my hands on the size of it. hyper scalars, how do you fail -- how do you value hibor scale -- how do you value hyper scalers? tom: very carefully. -- gina: very carefully. capital spending has been surging, certainly contributing to overall growth and absolute

can to beating to bottomless -- to bottom line earnings growth. our view on the overall capital spending outlook is that we are going to have the strongest boom in 30 years over the course of 2022, reflecting a much stronger-than-expected sales recovery over the last two years. i think it is absolutely impacting earnings. it certainly is contributing to elevated valuations. we have obviously been focused on rates for the last couple of months. i think this underlying certainty with respect to the earnings trade is keeping economic conditions afloat, and certainly a portion of that is coming from these heavy spenders which are impacting the entire chain. tom: look at the capex that is being spent. there's an optimistic tone on what it means for valuations. moments ago, inquisitive elliott comes in and takes out another cloud-doer, citrix, as well.

the difference between these two immovable cash forces to me is completely underestimated. gina: it is, and i think m&a is going to be a key characteristic of this environment. the fact that we have had major acquisitions announced in the course of the last several weeks while interest rates were as volatile as they have been does send a signal of some degree of confidence from corporates that is not necessarily evident in pricing dynamics right now. i think what we have done over the last couple weeks is completely underestimated the power of the economy, and that is where we get our optimism for the year. our overall value estimate is for stocks to model their way through this year, but earnings that are persistent, earnings that are consistent are offsetting valuation pushes coming from interest rate rises.

lisa: with that risk reward equation on the table, how do you determine when to get involved, or have we not gone far enough? gina: bottoms are always characterized, you can never time a bottom based upon fundamentals. you always have your benchmark for where you expect valuations to trade based upon your anticipated economic and interest-rate outlook, but frankly, bottoms are always sentiment washouts. you look at things like rsi, things like oversold levels on stocks, percentages trading above their 50 day moving average, all of these characteristics usually frame bottoms. over the long-term, you need to pay attention to where valuations are, but valuations on a relative basis are significant and more important than valuations in a vacuum. if you listen to popular consensus, you would get the notion that stocks have been too

expensive for doing on a decade. but the reality is stocks in comparison to bonds is really what drives capital flows. that comparison has kept equity valuations afloat. you want to keep a very close eye on what is happening in the bond market, as long as interest rates are stable, and especially when real interest rates are negative, the value of stocks is going to remain elevated. jonathan: gina martin adams of bloomberg intelligence, leader of the stoxx team. this from luke kawa. this is a valuation selloff. yield has risen more than 50 basis points since the start of the year. a move that big, that fast, typically causes discomfort for risk assets. that is what we have seen. the question you have been asking is what happens when we conflate a valuation centric selloff with a slowdown story, a growth scare, as the data starts

to soften through q1 for other reasons. that is when you get into a much more difficult spot as well. tom: nobody once to hear this, but corporations are going to adapt. i think you are going to see a feeding frenzy in the selected parts of technology where people are really going for scale and market share. you can carry that over to other industries that indirectly use technology. jonathan: using the microsoft story is a taste of things to come? tom: i think it is unfair to blanket apple or microsoft over to the rest of the world. those are profit juggernauts that we have never witnessed. maybe we can witness it in shipping in britain in the 19th century. but what i would say is we underestimate corporations; ability to adapt -- corporations' ability to adapt. jonathan: rob rosner --

why do i keep calling him rob croson are -- rob krozner? coming up for morgan stanley. on radio come on tv, for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: never mind the bramo c am. just keep the mics on. and he keeps a straight face. on the nasdaq 100 we are unchanged. on the 10 year up to 1.8124. this from morgan stanley. the safety net of forward guidance from the fed is gone just as pmi's are set to decelerate. bramo has not edited this piece. we remain sellers of rallies and the views the s&p 500 remains closer to 4000 tactically. the call for morgan stanley on the equity side. lining up with a call from

morgan stanley on the fed side. tom: i am so glad you bring this up. this is what makes it fun for us. the difference in opinions we are seeing at any time. right now mark crumpton keeps a list of guest names i've mispronounced over the years. jonathan ferro catching up. this with the duo of cross nerve and rosener. rosner and rosener have left spotify. jonathan: why did they leave spotify? are they uncomfortable with the misinformation from the joe rogan podcast. robert rosener of morgan stanley joins us right now. tom: robert rosener, senior u.s. economist. you stop when you see a research

piece that is carefully considered. i did that last week as the team did a terrific essay on our fiscal debt. congratulations on the essay. really simple. you have confidence we can generate a growth rate to pay off this fiscal morass? robert: thanks for having me. it is that important point because we saw debt to gdp ratios rise. that was driven by the fiscal deficits we saw in 2020 and 2021. coming out of this year our projections for public debt relative to gdp are set to come down. they are not set to come down all of the way, but it doesn't it -- it does evidence how much a nominal rate of gdp can do to help those projections. tom: the doom crew will use that as a tool to say it can adjust fed policy.

will fiscal dynamics change fed policy? robert: fiscal matters for the fed as much as much as it impacts the real economy. not being driven by the state of fiscal policy but the state of the economy. it is the economy real activity and inflation that are in charge when it comes to driving fed policy. jonathan: you are at four 2022. you say the risk now as they do more. what is the more risk -- what is the more risk for you at the moment, that they frontload, or what they do later this year into 2023? what are you more focused on? robert: this is a very data dependent fed and where howard -- and we heard about a million times from chair powell it has to be a nimble fed guided by the data. that will take a number of months to see sign sequential. a lot of focus on the incoming

data and given the fed positioning right now, it raises the risk we could see the fed frontload the rate hikes we are anticipating. what is really important is this is not a fed committing to forward guidance, and so it is going to be the data in the driver seat, particularly the inflation data that will determine how fast, how much content what level we end up settling of fed funds rate. jonathan: and how that data on the inflation side is offset by the growth site with the pmi, with the output numbers. are you anticipating as a base case that they hike into weakness? robert: our base case is they are going to raise interest rates for the first time 25 basis points in march. two things they were clear on last week, they are gearing up for the first rate hike and during up to start the process of qt sometime thereafter.

that is happening against a backdrop of first quarter growth that looks to be dampened. we started off our growth tracking at -- gdp came in closer to seven. but as a sequential step downward in the pace of growth. the fed has given good reason to look through word -- to look through that. in particularly there is messiness from omicron and coming out of the year we saw the week retail sales report that said a week base effect for first quarter growth. the first quarter numbers from the activity side are looking softer. we have to zoom out and look at the fundamental story. how long is this first quarter slow down going to last? from the medium-term we remain constructive on growth. we have to get through this first quarter softness but the balance of the year looks like it will come in solidly. lisa: it seems like the fed

agrees with you and will probably agree with this. i want to go back to what john was quoting from luke kawa at ubs, the idea this is not a growth scare, this is a valuation centric selloff. at what point does a valuation based selloff become a growth scare, become exactly what the fed is trying to orchestrate which is slower growth and some sort of easing? robert: it is all about financial conditions and how much do we need to see financial conditions tightening? very connected to what we are seeing and the markets. what is the objection of the fed. we have heard from a number of fed policymakers that given the backdrop of shifting fed policy, it is appropriate to see some tightening in financial conditions. by our forecast that is set to continue. rather than being a source of concern for growth, it is almost a desire for the fed to get those conditions stuffed up.

by our measures this is the state of financial conditions, the level of financial conditions, while it has tightened on the margins is still not supported for growth. sci still accommodative. that means there are some further room for financial conditions to tighten before we get close to a place where financial conditions are more neutral to the growth backdrop. bottom line, this is about financial conditions tightening in response to fed policy. more room to go before we see it becoming a material growth risk. lisa: which goes to the point of can the u.s. go it alone? is this a fed story or a global story where if you get a tightening on a global level you will get the global rise in yields that will allow financial conditions to tighten. how much are you looking for that magnifying effect by this global tightening we are expecting? robert: is a very important trend. we speak to our colleagues

across the morgan stanley department in economics, there are number of central banks moving towards tightening, even echoing what we are talking about with the fed, the bank of canada, the bank of england where we are looking for policy to be tightened in a more frontloaded way. there is a global theme. there are idiosyncratic stories elsewhere. that is certainly an important theme that will be driving financial conditions tighter. what we have seen in the past is the fed can move financial conditions on a down. it just matters -- on its own. it just matters what lever. is it risk market? visit the dollar? is it rates? tom: what is the latest math on your desk -- can you game that or do we have to wait to see what happens? robert: we are expecting goods

inflation starts to turn the corner into the middle of the year. what we have seen so far in terms of our forecasting is sequentially we are getting slower. we have seen some high-frequency data pointing to a moderation in the pace of increase in the things like used car prices. we are just aren't to see flashes of light at the end of the tunnel. we are not there yet -- we are just starting to see flashes of light at the end of the tunnel. we are not there yet, but we have seen some indications of reversal. other indicators like our surveys of analysts have indicated the peak of disruption in global supply chains may be behind us. we are starting to see some signals we could see goods prices were versed in back half of the year. the key question is how much do they reverse because that will play importantly into how much we see inflation come down. we are expecting core pce

inflation to end the year at 2.4%. that depends on a big decline. if we do not get that, there is upside risk. jonathan: fantastic to read through some of the research. robert rosener of morgan stanley. looking ahead to the ecb and the bank of england on thursday. david goodman on the bloomberg, we are looking at the prospect of the first back-to-back hikes from the bank of england in 17 years. you have to go although i back to 2004. it has been a while. tom: i must admit it is so unusual for you to say that. i do not know how to comprehend it. my gut reaction is can the island nation withstand that. we do not know. jonathan: joining us that thursday, i believe, danny blanchflower. tom: he is fired up. jonathan: he joined two years after that.

he is fired up. on the fed as well, he does not see a reason to hike. tom: is probably just confirmed growth slowed down. jonathan: he is looking at the confidence numbers. on friday consumer confidence sentiment not pretty. lisa: unless there is a sea change to the economy the argument is inflation is a constraining effect. people will reduce their purchases unless they're getting huge wage booms. jonathan: nobody jumped in my ear to tell us danny was not joining us thursday so danny is joining us thursday. he says the fed should do nothing. lori heine preparingl for this fed to do something. from your city, this is bloomberg. ritika: several developments in

the crisis in ukraine. the un security council will debate the issue today. the pentagon says the moscow has increased the number of troops deployed on the border. russia's president says he has no plans to launch an invasion. raphael bostic says a central bank could do a half interest rate hike in march if needed. in an interview bostick stuck to his position that the most likely scenario is three four point interest rates this year. the fed typically raises rates in quarter-point interest. the united arab emirates is about to shed the tax-free status that made it a magnate for businesses around the world. the tax will not apply to personal income from employment, real estate, and other investors. mexico has fallen into recession. the economy declined white 1% in

the fourth quarter following a .4% contraction in the third quarter. mexico is one of the world's largest exporters and has been hurt by the global supply chain problems. spotify is trying to end the controversy over misleading coronavirus vaccine information. neil young and joni mitchell pulled their music from spotify to protest jarreau been, who has hosted -- to protest joe rogan, who has hosted outspoken critics of the vaccine. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is larger in scale and scope than anything we have seen

in recent memory. i think it would have to go back quite a while, to the cold war days, to see something of this magnitude. they do annual exercises, but this is different. tom: the gentleman from the joint chiefs of staff with an update. many updates through the weekend as the message is managed in washington and the message is managed in europe. a great honor for lisa abramowicz and i to bring you someone who viscerally understands this story. as we spoke to the ambassador of france to the united states last week and his history of eastern europe. so to, george friedman of budapest. he is founder and chairman of geopolitical futures and has a family that has viscerally lived living near russia. what does the media get wrong about vladimir putin? george: he wants ukraine, but he

did something very strange. he did not attack weeks ago. you do not launch an attack without surprise if you can get it. sitting there waiting for the united states to build up defensive capabilities, which the u.s. has done, just increases the chance of losing. right now he will not invade ukraine. he is looking at how to split nato. tom: splitting nato, and this is angela stent writing in foreign affairs on the putin doctrine, what is the putin doctrine that will allow for a fracture of nato? george: natural gas. russia is supplying almost all of germany's natural gas. if germany joins with nato, it risks having a rush cutoff of natural gas. if on the other hand it does not

come it goes against the grain of the united states, the british, and other players. what putin is doing is grading a situation with his lock on natural gas where the germans are in a position and are likely to split from the west and resisting the russians, or at least to the extent of not cooperating in building defense. lisa: and other nations we might ask about popularity. does it even matter if this move is popular among the rank-and-file russians? george: at this point, popularity does not matter anywhere. you notice in the united states everybody is quiet about it. the germans are opposed to any operation. the british are deep into it. each is following their natural -- their national interests. the decisions will be made

quickly and rapidly. no one wants to come out of this looking like a loser. lisa: how does vladimir putin look like a winner from all of this? george: at this point he appears to be a winner because the west has gotten alarmed. already he shows the russian people they are taking him seriously. the second step is he has to do something. an invasion is a risky thing. you could lose. he cannot afford to lose. on the other hand, you're in a situation where if he can manage to split nato, if he creates a crisis in nato, he can do something, which is why the united states is cramming to find a natural gas they can send to europe to support them. that is where the key is. if he does not want nato to advance into the east, a perfect way to do that is to split data

wide open on the natural gas issue. tom: this is important and this goes back to your work at stratford and your academics at cornell. is it feasible to salvage europe with a delivery of hydrocarbons. have you ever seen a study when we can deliver to germany and the rest enough oil and gas and the rest? george: what i have seen is it can be done. at any rate, the united states has to give it a try, has to make it clear to the europeans we care about this situation. ev and if there is going to be an interruption it will be a short interruption. the problem, what putin has done well, is to shift the burden to the germans in particular and the europeans in general, where the choice of defending ukraine and having their economy impacted has to be made. ukraine is not that important to them.

tom: is it a generational shift of the new german government? after angela merkel, does that matter in your analysis? george: germany has built an economy that is very powerful in europe. it is a leader in europe. without natural gas it does not have that economy. the u.s. should have tried to build alternatives years ago, but did not. it let the situation develop and now it is playing out. it is a reality that cannot be ignored. tom: george friedman, thank you so much. authentic analysis. one perspective on our international relations. very quiet, dxy out to 97. one of the quiet stories. lisa: this is a perfect way to lake the beginning of the show

with the end of the show. black roxanne betting on the dollar and betting on cash are some of the best risk off pages -- how much does that continue to be the trade as wall street analysts get more hawkish with respect to the fed prognostication. tom: we agree? the hawkish nest, i am taken aback by get. i get four rate increases is just 1%. it is not that much within the scheme of it. i am still surprised at the certitude of gaming the power game out. lisa: you senate this morning. the washington post story talking about 40% increases in rents. this is becoming -- 14% increases in rents. this is becoming a problem. the vet has to get ahead of it and they want to present a shock

without it being too big of a shock. it is a dance they have not done for decades. tom: say the post is wrong on 14, split the difference. his 7% rental inflation acceptable to two thirds of america? absolutely not. lisa: especially because wages are not keeping pace. there falling further behind. you have a -2.3% real wage rate in the u.s.. tom: i will be on the edge of informed and go to eco . this is how lisa abramowicz does it. ism tomorrow is important. lisa: also jolts this week will be important. and the payrolls report on friday. let's mention the bank of england and the ecb. tom: are they this week as well? lisa: thursday.

tom: that will be interesting to say the least. a turning to the market. nasdaq 100 show some green on the screen. stay with us. richard haass at the 12:00 hour. ♪

jonathan: their we close out january? -- can we close out january? let's do it now. your equity market slightly

negative. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: from new york, we begin with the big issue. one big guessing game. >> as we approach the march meeting. >> all options are on the table. >> we start to hear talk of seven interest rate hikes this year. >> the center of gravity is now five. >> inflation stays stubbornly high. mably get seven or more rate hikes. >> bank of america at seven. >> who can forecast number o