court nominee. he is hosting dick durbin and chuck grassley as he considers a replacement for retiring justice stephen breyer. the president says he is committed to nominating a black woman to the high court for the first time, following through on a promise he made in 2020. in north carolina, thousands are forced to evacuate their homes after a raging fire tore through a fertilizer plant this morning. firefighters went door-to-door with warning reasons -- morning residents -- war residents that chemicals at then site could cause an explosioning. firefighters had to pull back from the scene and leave behind an unmanned truck to pump water on it. no injuries were reported. the winter olympics in china may be more of a drag on beijing's regional economy than a boost.

covid flareups and pollution curbs are weighing on consumer and industrial activity. a ban on public spectators means there will not be the usual bump in tourism that a city hopes to gain from hosting the games. the olympics begin on friday. in pro football, it's official, tom brady is retiring. the quarterback is stepping away after 22 seasons in the national football league. he won seven super bowls, six with the new england patriots. five times he was the games most valuable player. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: it is 1:00 in new york,

7:00 p.m. in berlin, and 2:00 a.m. in hong kong. i'm matt miller. welcome to bloomberg markets. here are the top stories we are following from around the world. market so far today have remained calm and there is a lot going on under the hood. the world's biggest etf post its worst monthly outflows in history. gm reports earnings after the bell as supply chain issues continue to grip the auto industry. we will dig into what to expect on the top and bottom line sales . as demand for lithium-ion batteries increases with the ev sales skyrocketing, we will speak to the ceo of novonix which makes the materials for those batteries as the company prepares to go public. first, let's get a quick check on what is going on in markets, what little is going on in markets. we have seen the s&p 500 bouncing back and forth between

gains and losses for most of the session. tech stocks had been a big drag but they are now recovering as we get ready for a slew of earnings from google, facebook, amazon after the bell and throughout the week. the 10-year yield, 1.7946. not a lot of movement in terms of the yield, but the real yield dipping down. it was -50 basis points, now back to -70. the bloomberg dollar index is down. the dollar is a loser against the euro, pound, but also against bitcoin, gold. nymex crude and brent have been up and down today. at one point, brent crude was above $90, now $89. we are watching the commodities very closely. speaking of, novonix has

announced that its adr's will begin trading on the nasdaq. the produce chemicals for lithium-ion batteries. it's customers include global giants like honda, samsung, 3m. joining us now is the ceo of novonix, chris burns to talk about the growth. it has been amazing in terms of ev sales, for sure. what about at novonix? are you mirroring what we are seeing in the ev industry? chris: you are right, we are entering this incredible wave for batteries, they have powered everything in our homes, offices, medical devices, and now we are finally seeing the commitment from the auto sector

that will drive this next wave of growth to electrify our vehicle fleet. at novonix, we are focused on bringing materials to the u.s. where there is a nonexistent supply chain to feed all these three plants that you hear being announced to support their automotive partners. matt: what are we looking at in terms of battery development? this is a conversation i had with car enthusiasts a lot. right now we are looking at ranges of 200 to 300 miles on the batteries and high-end electric cars. there are people who say that could double to 600 miles an even more over the next five years. what kind of growth do you see in terms of battery storage? chris: we have seen that kind of growth in the past but we are at an inflection point now with where the market is growing, we

need a multitude of technologies to support these use cases. we talk about batteries, as if there is just one chemistry that will power the entire fleet. lithium may be the core technology for that, but even from long-haul truckers to long-haul passenger vehicles to your standard commuter car, there are different chemistries in play. the growth in the sector will really require multiple technologies to become winners, including huge growth in today's base of nickel, lithium-ion. matt: where'd you get the materials that you sell to these customers? these are big names, huawei, honda, samsung. is it difficult to find these resources? do you have to work with far-off governments and countries? chris: that has been historical

challenge of the supply chain, it's been dominated by asia and primarily china. a lot of the companies we work with on the research and development side, now working on supplying materials primarily from our first plant that we are standing up in chattanooga, tennessee. we make graphite material, the dominant material for lithium-ion batteries today. a few of the advantages we have in the u.s. are the ability to source those materials and process them like we do in tennessee with a low cost of power and clean source of energy. last year, phillips 66 came our largest shareholder, investing millions of dollars into novonix. we can source some of our materials from their facilities here in the u.s., so reducing that form reliance on any part of the supply chain is where we are focused. matt: should we expect a future

where phillips 66, shell, sunoco, all of these gasoline operators are also operating electric charging stations? chris: i think that is realistic. we are entering the space where everyone is reevaluating the way society thinks about energy, energy generation, energy storage. we focus so much on the electric vehicle fleet because it is so present and there are giant commitments from everyone. but the other really important part of that is, as we push for society to lower our carbon footprint and produce more power from clean sources of energy, there is a huge requirement in the grid to increase the amount of energy storage. the sun does not always shown, the windows not always blow, and you have to couple of these assets.

the ability for batteries to reach the price point they have, the ability to last 10, 20 years, will allow us to rethink whole industries. matt: you are in a sweet spot in terms of demand, everyone wants work product. what is the biggest hurdle you face in 2022, the supply chain? chris: our biggest hurdle is a as fast as we can. with that comes supply chain challenges. of course, for some of our input materials, we have a good relationship with phillips 66, source materials, but as we look to invest in our plant in tennessee, scale it to a new level by next year, getting the equipment and the people on the ground to make that happen is one of the biggest challenges. that scale growth target of next year is just the beginning as we look to go to 40,000 tons in 2025, 150,000 tons by the end of the decade, which still only

represents a small amount of the domestic level global demand for this type of material. matt: thanks for talking with us. chris burns is the ceo of novonix. they make the stuff that goes inside the batteries that goes inside the stuff that you buy. the federal reserve bank of philadelphia president patrick harker says we need to move now to control inflation, favors four 25 basis point increase is starting next month. speaking of, sherrod brown has said that the senate banking panel plans to vote on all federal reserve nominees by february 15. joe manchin says that he thinks the nominees are extremely qualified. they have a better chance of going through. quick programming note. bloomberg's key future officer featuring the macy's cfo is out right now.

you can find that on bloomberg.com or on youtube. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. let's get to something that caught my eye today, the repositioning by markets for changes in central bank policy. we have a chart that you can see, shows the fed imply rate

change through 2020 and white. ecb in blue. we have seen a real pickup here in the fed, and now we expect four increases in 2022. that is priced in even though the dot plot showed us three. before that we thought only two. now some are talking about six or seven, and we have some people telling the financial times, maybe we could even see a 50 basis point increase at the live meeting in march. philadelphia fed president patrick harker spoke exclusively this morning with bloomberg. take a listen to his stance on rates. >> this has always been the question, how quickly are the supply chain constraints going to believe us? it looks like now that they will take some time. slowing down some demand, which is what monetary policy does, is

appropriate. i don't think we are behind the curve in that sense because we don't affect why there is inflation. that said, i do think we need to move now to try to control inflation. that is something that i firmly believe. matt: move now but then how often after that and how fast? mike: the questions are out there, 50 basis point in march, seven rate increases proposed by bank of america. where do you come down on that? >> we are going to stop the tapering in march. i would be supportive of 25 basis points in march. could we do 50? yes. should we? i am less convinced of that now. we will see how the data turns out in the next couple weeks. when we are sufficiently away from zero -- and we can argue with that is -- then we start

normalizing the balance sheet, start bringing it down, which will also reduce accommodation. it is really a two step process. we want to increase the fed funds rate, our primary tool of monetary policy. but at the same time, we want to shrink the balance sheet. those things have to happen in tandem. >> let's step into march and then build on your comments. tell me the data you are looking at, the data that will influence that decision. a lot of peoplede-emphasizing friday's payroll print. we will love and understanding of how you will process that information, and additionally the data going into the march call. >> i heard some of the comments earlier from your colleagues, people who tweeted about maximum employment. i think we are there. this is really an inflation story in my mind.

what we are looking at is the signs that the precursors to inflation, like supply chain issues, are starting to mitigate. if i don't see that, i would be for a more aggressive policy. right now, four 45 basis increases is appropriate but there is risk here. if the upside risks to inflation is worse. there is also risk that inflation will start to ease faster than we have anticipated. i think that is a lesser risk, a good risk to have, but this is grammy to keep flexible with respect to policy. we have to look at the data. >> can be keep building on the inflation front? is persistence enough, if it persisted enough? which would be? >> persistence would continue to

worry me, which is why i want to see some signs, whether in the inflation numbers themselves, and the precursor numbers to inflation, starting to see an ease on the wages. >> what would be looking at to possibly go to 50? what kind of inflation rate? >> i think we are looking at a significant spike to where we are now with inflation. if inflation stays where we are now, continues to come down, i don't see a 50 basis point. but if we see a spike, we may have to act more aggressively. matt: that was patrick harker. still ahead, a bad month for the world's biggest etf as it posts its worst month since 1993. we will discuss what is behind the outflow in spys.

this is bloomberg.

matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. we are getting some breaking news on pfizer. the drugmaker submitting data to clear covert shots for kids under five. the aim is to clear this for children as young as six months old. we will bring you more news on this story but pfizer is looking to secure fda authorization to provide covid-19 vaccination to kid between the ages of six months and five years old. the world's biggest etf posted its worst monthly outflow in its three decade history, underscoring weeks of turmoil in u.s. large-cap companies. joining us now is an etf analyst

for bloomberg. i was watching the qqq's this morning, and they bled out but spy posted their biggest outflow ever. >> i think you have to take a step back and look at a few things. there are a whole bunch of different players, institutions, traders, portfolios, also buy and hold investors. the other aspect is what is happening with spy. there is some aspect of these outflow that is due to tax harvesting. spy is the go to for tax law harvesting to keep from exposure to the market. after the window, they buy into other securities. $6 billion out of qqq's in january, almost a record. it is the second most since april of 2000, so not a great

sign, but they lots 7 billion in april, which i don't know what that is in today's money. matt: i actually have a chart here. it is on the bloomberg. this is the qqq's. incredible selloff last month, the worst since the .com bubble burst. i thought this chart was pretty amazing. another thing we were talking about this morning on bloomberg surveillance is the fact that the tic data showed a feed of algo selling last month. we saw an incredibly broad amount of names. is that related to the outflows in etf's? >> it is certainly possible.

we have seen outflows in huge selling, equities that are high duration, high risk, high profitability. we have seen bond etf's selloff hugely as well. it is possible there is hedging going on with algos, but i don't know that it would cause that much selling with the algo traders. matt: we have a good chart for the tic data as well. for those of you playing along at home. you can see this fascinating indicator. it has come back down a little bit today. in terms of etf's as an investment vehicle, i feel like they were already booming in popularity before the pandemic, and then they took off.

made a whole new generation of investors sees these as a way to do active passive investing. have i got that right, will that continue? >> two things going on here. there is a lot of talk about active passive. it is really high costolo caused. that is the way that our team looks at it. it is also becoming a structural change. we are seeing outflows from passive mutual funds going to etf's, something that has changed since 2020. definitely people going more to etf's. spy has 30 billion in january, qqq's had 6 billion out, but etf's are still nearly took in $20 billion. vanguard is an issuer and took in $22 billion, so their net inflows was greater than the entire etf industry.

for these smaller player etf's, sub level etf's, it is basically the bench outscoring star players. a team winning the game without the star players on the court. there is a lot of things going on underlying, not just these big-name etf's. matt: thanks for joining us, great intelligence on the etf world. coming up, a shortage disruption. how today's u.s. auto sales were rattled by supply chain issues. jessica caldwell of edmunds.com. it is a go to if you are buying a car. this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: i'm jon erlichman. welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: good afternoon. i'm matt miller. jon: let's get up to speed on what is happening on wall street and across north american stock markets as we begin this new month of trading. right now, we are seeing mixed performance. some agreed when it comes to the s&p and nasdaq, tsx also higher today. it is feel like a back-and-forth, the bulls and bears having a truce after that roller coaster january. we saw a lot of appetite returning for some of the hard-hit technology stocks coming in at the end of the month. you think about the nasdaq 100 performance in the friday session, monday session, nice bounce back. not enough to change the narrative that the s&p was coming off of its worst month of performance since march 2020.

we have a number of earnings helping out today. if you think about the street reaction to ups, exxon has played a role in at least keeping the s&p 500 in the green right now. we also want to talk about the outlook for the auto industry. gm is in focus today, a company navigating all of the bottleneck issues. we will get into that later today. jessica caldwell is the executive director of industry analysis at edmunds.com, looks at consumer shopping behavior and trends in the auto market. i think there is a good case to be made that people habitable to go out and buy a car, paying a little more, but it has not always been the net benefit that automakers want to because of those bottleneck headaches. jessica: transaction prices are at a record. they are over msrp by hundreds

of dollars, and it's been that way since august this is something we have never seen in this industry. it is usually massive incentives. ho we have more consumers and fewer vehicles, which is frustrating for automakers. things like loyalty comes into question, they go to whichever brand they can get a car at the price they want. there are a lot of negatives with these high transaction prices we are seeing. matt: are we going to see a recovery? we are hearing from general motors after the bell. i will be focused on what they say about chips, production. there are some new vehicles that i'm excited to see but i am worried they will not come as announced. there is a lot of functionality, things as basic as heated steering wheels, lumbar support, the autostart function that they just cannot sell right now in cars because they don't have the chips. jessica: that's right, and that is frustrating.

you have one chance to wow customers. those small things like heated steering wheels, that is something that customers come to love. while i understand you have to make business trade-offs and you have to ship them of these cars without those features, it is a negative. they will be important for this year especially as we see these big lodges. they have one chance to get this right and roll them out. if you don't quite do it, you may lose customers forever, which is tricky in a competitive market right now. jon: i want to try to get some anecdotal perspective from you on how far a consumer is willing to go. let's say all of the bottleneck issues cannot be resolved overnight, so there is still a bit of tap dancing going on for gm or ford. consumers have already shown a

willingness to pay up for cars and used cars. are we reaching a point where they may be drawing a line in the sand? jessica: some already have. if you cannot get the car that you want and you are paying a huge amount over msrp, some are just sitting out. a lot of people are forced into the market, whether they had an accident, a lease comes to an end. for makers and dealers, the important thing is not to sever those relationships. we know that vehicles are expensive and in short supply. if you cannot get it to one customer, there are five more waiting, but that relationship is important. you just have to mitigate the process the best you can because consumers are getting frustrated. they are not finding anything they like in their neighborhood. i just spoke to someone who went to eight different dealerships and they could not find anything they wanted. it is what we are seeing and that is the reality of what is

going on right now. matt: it hurts dealers perhaps even more than consumers. in terms of ev sales, we have seen big spikes in other parts of the world. our american consumers buying a ton more evs? jessica: not yet. i think that is still to come. in terms of these companies that are the winners and losers, that has not yet been determined. we are still looking at a market share of ev's under 3%. this year, we are looking at 4% for electric vehicles, so it is still anyone's game. consumers have not come in droves yet. it is not about the technology but the vehicles have not been quite right at the price point that people want, infrastructure is not there. and they tend to flourish in a few places, just not as part out across the u.s. as it could be. matt: i spent a lot of time on

edmunds.com. you get an incredible amount of feedback from consumers. i wonder what people en mas are se are thinking about evs. i know that i'm an older consumer but the field is just different. know where same as a push rod v8. the lack of sound i could get used to, i don't mind the silence, but i just don't feel like i'm driving a vehicle that costs tens of thousands of dollars. he doesn't give me that experience. jessica: some people like the acceleration and that feeling that you are just going infinitely, but it does come down to the consumer. i know other people definitely do not like that. if you look into younger demographics, people with less experience from owning

vehicles will be more open to different types of ownership. right now, people are so burned out, that is really an issue of trying to relearn this process of going to a gas station, filling up the car. that is also a. to entry for some people, especially millennials who are busy with kids, careers, this pandemic that never seems to end. matt: at least in got out in january. jon: i was going to say, the industry needs to work on his pitch for you, the potential ev consumer. in terms of the money that we are seeing across the industry now to ensure they can get up to speed and be ready in part to satisfy consumers like matt. how closely are you watching those friends? jessica: pretty closely. right now it feels like the

battle between the startups and traditional companies. will the newer companies emerge victorious, or will it be the old guard? that is something that we can look at. in terms of the detroit automakers, ford, gm particularly, they have come out in a short time convincing people that they are not out of the game, they will not allow rivian take their truck share. that is definitely of interest, but a lot of people are interested in the technology. matt: i have to say, breaking news right now, ford is planning a reorganization to speed the shift to electric vehicles. we are getting headlines right now. ford considering up to $20 billion in additional investment in electric vehicles, electric vehicle production. ceo doug field is leading the restructuring efforts.

i believe he is a former apple employee? let's bring in ed ludlow right now who is breaking the news. what do we know about this investment? it seems similar to what we heard last week from general motors. they will ramp up their spending to the tune of $20 billion to quicken their ev production. >> sources tell us this is a refocus of ford's ev transition, very focused on how they produce them. they are considering additional investment up to $20 billion to literally retrofit and prepare facilities around the world to manufacture electric vehicles. ford has around 60 production facilities globally. we understand doug field along with other executives are looking at the structure of the business. they want to restructure so that the ev plan is more closely

aligned to something like tesla. jim farley has spoken in the last week about how much he admires tesla, but according to sources, he has been sending articles around about tesla internally saying this is what they are doing. there are a number of options on the table but they are focused on hiring the talent specific to ev's. everything from battery engineers to software, hiring in silicon valley and beyond, away from that detroit mindset of auto manufacturing. matt: i remember a decade ago talking to farley in the napa valley area, where he and bill ford, mark fields were setting up shop to attract this type of talent. they have been doing this for a while but it seemed like they are doubling down right now. look at the stock chart. up another 2%. ford's stock has been on fire

the last 12 months. going from a $10 stock to a $25 stock in the space of 12 months. is that what this is, are they just doubling down again on this future strategy? >> remember the stock has been under pressure this new year. you were talking about gm earnings after the bell. the fourth quarter was tough because of semiconductors. ford has committed that $30 billion to the capex plan. it has committed to building the three battery plants, ev plant in kentucky. what sources are telling bloomberg is this is the bigger picture. what do we need to make sure the ford business globally is set up in such a way that we can match evs. let's look at the talent base we have got, how everything is run. what we are hearing is this reorganization is focused on building a business that works

similar to tesla. farley -- maybe we can play that soundbite later on. he talked about how tesla overcame manufacturing and engineering difficulties. he admires that. my understanding from working on this story, that is the message that he is trying to instill across the workforce. jon: i want to bring jessica caldwell back into the conversation, who was already with us previewing gm results later today. you said that you are watching some of the spending in the industry but these numbers are pretty amazing, based on the reporting that ed and others have done. x on the rating that roadmap by as much as $20 billion. what do those numbers mean to you? jessica: they are really massive. they are showing that further commitment to electrification,

and this is the way the business is going. right now, they may be reporting trucks as the majority of their profit, but this is the future for them. this really sets them up well to be market producers of ev's. the u.s. and other countries need this for the price to go down, for people to widely accept them. ford or general motors can do this more easily than the startups. spending shows us this is the direction they are going. matt: jim farley -- and mary barra as well -- has to be pretty angry about the chip shortage. they could be selling loads. they had to close reservations for the f-150 lightning because so many people will just pay whatever they want. >> i have to give a shout out to my colleague keith norton. he has been covering this industry for decades. he makes the key point, what is

the key difference between gm, ford, tesla? gm and ford had to transform their portfolio to ev's while maintaining profitability on their best sellers. the frustration of the fourth quarter with gm, with this lack of semiconductors, and when you have that, you have some options. ford has built them without those chips and then looking to replace them later on. tesla rewrote code. it is almost a leading indicator, the sales you get in the fourth quarter, when earnings are reported later in the first quarter, it is a frustration and mixed messaging. a chip problem looks to stay into 2022. matt: thank you for bringing us this scoop. ed ludlow working with keaton on to really move the markets. they put out the story and the stock jumps 2%. jessica caldwell, thanks for

joining us. thanks for joining us from edmunds.com. i will continue to go to your website for all of my car research, which i do pretty much all day every day. you can see again there the big pop in ford shares. up to percent after ed ludlow and keith naughton put out that story, ford will invest another $20 billion into ev's, doubling down on their electrification strategy. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is bloomberg markets. i'm matt miller. time for our stock of the hour. it is not ford or gm, but it is

at&t. shares are falling 3% after slashing their dividend and spent of warner media holdings to discovery. we knew that what happened but the dividend is disappointing. kriti gupta has the bad news. kriti: double whammy when it comes to stocks. the spinoff is looking to combine its warner media business with discovery. this would get a $43 billion in proceeds to finance a 5g buildout. at&t and verizon have been at the heart of this issue a building up a 5g network, claiming to give the u.s. and edge. for now, they are trying to get that $43 billion to help them do it. the other piece of the equation is also that it will lower their dividend payout ratio to $8 billion a year, down from 15 billion. almost having that amount. -- halving that amount.

there was that there would be a share sale or volatility in general but they were not expecting a dividend cut, especially when at&t is one of the largest dividend payers in the s&p, only behind microsoft. on a performance basis, let's look at at&t relative to verizon and the s&p 500. it is lacking both. not good news when it comes to future prospects of at&t. jon: thank you for the breakdown. challenging day for at&t stock. we have been watching a lot of action this hour in ford shares. going back to that scoop on the plan to continue reorganizing upwards of $20 billion going into the ev strategy. take that tesla playbook and bring it to detroit. more details throughout the day. this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: this is bloomberg markets. i'm jon erlichman. today we got some data on the u.s. quit rate. it was little change, 2.9%. still near the all-time high in november. one of the areas where we have seen departures is in education. joining us now is the call so are as of kelly services, who focuses on the education sector. this is a much talked about subject. in the past, the perception was, if you are a teacher, you are a teacher for life. we have seen evidence recently there's a lot of soccer flexion taking place. what are you seeing right now? nicola: it has been a journey. even prior to the pandemic, we were experiencing a major teacher shortage.

of course, the pandemic has only exacerbated the high number of teachers leaving the profession. right now, it is pretty shocking but we are seeing in the last two years of teachers leaving for a variety of reasons. also, recently, just in my conversations with lots of former educators and teachers on the reasons why they are leaving, primarily due to pay or the beauty and exhaustion. we know what the pandemic has contributed. but now they are thinking about their careers. when they think about the foundation of the skill sets they have, they discover, like the rest of our talent market, there are the career they can go to with their skills. particularly where they're soft and hard skills can translate. from the employer's perspective, that is highly attractive. matt: the wall street journal says the rate of people quitting

jobs in private educational services -- i wonder if that means prep schools, like the columbus academy, csg. previously, a teacher their state forever, because they become a part of the fabric of the community around them. i would imagine during lockdown times with online classes, that is not the same. nicola: from my perspective, certainly within the experience we have in kelly education, the fatigue and high rate of resignation, not only is it occurring in your private and parochial, for-profit, day cares, but you are also seeing it primarily in the public education sector in terms of our public school districts from k-12, for sure. matt: it is a fascinating story, one that we need to follow closely. there is also always an

interesting back and forth between wall street and education. a lot of people who leave wall street, banks go to teach. people in the teaching sector are very employable on the street as well. the call also are as -- nicola soares, thank you for joining us. i want to recap the ford story. and ludlow and keith naughton reporting that ford will ramp up their investment into electric vehicles with an additional $20 billion. as a result, we saw a spike in shares. still up more than 1% on what is otherwise a down day. for jon erlichman, i'm matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪

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mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. thousands of new york city police officers are paying their respects to one of the two

officers killed in an ambush a week ago. the to seven-year-old officer was taken off life support. he and eight the two-year-old officer, his partner, were shot while responding to a demand stick disturbance call. he was laid to rest last week. the funeral will be held tomorrow at st. patrick's cathedral. russian president vladimir putin says he hopes diplomatic talks continue, though u.s. secretary of state, anthony lincoln and serge rao got -- serge reg knobs show little in the agreement over ukraine. they said they will keep diplomacy going after a phone call today. vladimir putin met with victor or bond while u.k. premised are boris johnson and the dutch prime minister were both expected and ukraine to meet with its president. western officials