>> they are attempting to engineer a soft landing. the risk of recession is exceedingly low. >> it appears the fed is -- jon: alphabet knocking it out of the park. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. your equity markets are up nicely. pretty tidy. tom: then nasdaq up with the vix back hundred 22. this is a sea change moment. we saw with microsoft, with apple, and google said once and for all this is different these companies are different and they have a playbook that is based on cash flow and profit. jonathan: before we get into the stock split, 33 percent ad

revenue for google. these are real numbers in a massive business. tom: what is important and i go to general motors with the long-term price target from 54 to above 200 dollars at gm, what i will say is that what is common here is a new confidence that successful companies can get beyond the pandemic and generate again profit and cash flow. jonathan: the stock up in the premarket by almost 11%. a 20-1 stock split for alphabet. lisa: trying to make their shares more accessible to mom-and-pop investors. that they will be able to buy inside. you can buy fractional shares. that is an argument that has been discussed for a long time. they had a small one-time dividend that they put with this. i feel like they have to blow up the show, though. it is about getting included in the dow jones. it is literally the truth. a lot of people are speculating --

jonathan: you are taking my role today. you and i have been going back and forth on this for much of the last decade. i remember our first argument was in 2014 when apple did this. i hate the way that it is covered. tom: i hate the way it's covered. we agree on that. jonathan: i don't think it makes a difference. fractional share ownership. i think it is a big pr event, which is what the dow is too. tom: i will be blunt. this all has to do with appeasing washington. they are hypersensitive about regulation and they have people saying to them get off of your silicon valley high horse, do a stock split, get more accessible to the public. nothing says accessible like being on the dow for microsoft.

microsoft is 5.7% of the dow. intel is 1% of the dow. jonathan: does it actually make it more accessible or make people think that it is more accessible and they should probably buy it now? it drives me insane. i will say this. tom has been about this for a while. look at amazon. tom and i have been having a fight about this for much of the last 10 years. he is saying that amazon needs to go. maybe they will. lisa: the fact that shares are up as much as they are come they had a blockbuster earnings season, but this is being attributed to the stock split where others are buying into the idea. why wouldn't amazon do it? what's holding them back given the fact that their shares are in the thousands of dollars for each one? jonathan: we will spend time on this, but we have other things to cover too. futures got a nice lift. the earnings from big tech have been tremendous. my producer jamie shot this one

over. the tech shares will now go back into hibernation mode after this job dropper alphabet quarter, t.k. tom: he has been dead on talking about generous motors. saying that gm is a tech company. he agrees with a shocking forecast with gm out years. jonathan: we catch up with mary barra today. the euro leads to an inflation pop. the headline number in the fives. lisa: up more than 5% on an annualized basis. the median estimate was from four point 4%. no one expected an acceleration like this in the euro region. a lot of it has to do with energy prices. today we get the opec-plus meeting that we will be discussing the potential increase in oil output, if they can actually deliver is the

question at a time when oil prices are at their highest levels going back to 2014. how do we factor this into inflation? honestly, move we look at inflation expectations if oil remains this high for this long at what point does it become ingrained in consumer psychology? a lot of people trying to parse through the data from the 1970's to understand that. the headline number doesn't matter, we've learned that from fed officials in washington, d.c. when we look at the jobs report on friday. wages is what i will be focused on. how much our average hourly wages going up year-over-year? can we get a sense of surprise momentum that could shock the fed in some kind of way, maybe a 50 basis point rate hike? aftermarket we get facebook, i'm not going to call it meta, after the bell. the expectation is that they will repeat what we got from

google, i'm not going to call it alphabet. we were talking about content being king. really? we saw netflix. the advertisers coming back and forth even without services coming back online in full. jonathan: i called it alphabet and not google. who would like a sneak peek of the inflation estimates for next week? cpi in america, barclays and seven point 3%. morgan stanley at 7.3%. these estimates just starting to come in. north of seven, tom. tom: it is they are and it is rental and oil going back to $90 a barrel. in europe we saw higher numbers in europe this morning. jonathan: the ecb gets my attention tomorrow too. the global head of research at global chartered. you called for for rate hikes this year. it is not just your typical for hike call -- four hike call,

you're looking for it to be loaded. why is that? >> there are a couple of factors that we think are interesting. number one, according to jay powell in his press conference last week there is a real commitment now to shifting into a monetary tightening regime. if you read between the lines it looks like the fed feels that perhaps they have waited too long keeping rates at zero. i think that's one issue. number two, as you can discussing, the inflation statistics look extremely elevated. -- as you have been discussing, the inflation statistics look extremely elevated. doing four hikes before the midterm elections in november could be a big priority. lisa: do you think the markets accurately priced in the frontloading? eric: i do. if you look at how the rates

curve has behaved every time the fed gets more hawkish, every time the data is stronger, what you see is the market pricing and rate hikes in 2022 and 2023. if you look at the spread between 23 and 2024 it is completely flat.the market is effectively saying that the fed is going to have to do all of its hard work of the next 18 months before the business cycle starts to rollover. lisa: i'm trying to understand how much to look at the earnings. yesterday the story was my goodness, the fed is going to hike more than people expect and the markets are not recognizing it. today people i've have not listened to how great the earnings are in the fed has been priced in. which is the correct narrative? eric: one thing that is interesting and that we are still trying to get our arms around his there seems to be a slightly different narrative coming out of the fed this week. -- is there seems to be a slightly different narrative coming out of the fed this week. the speeches have led more in

the direction of we are comfortable with four hikes but we don't necessarily want to do anything that jars the market or the economy. that has given equity and fixed income markets a little relief. in terms of earnings come you made a great point that high-quality names, the mega cap tech companies for example, have produced stunning results and that is obviously getting comfort back into that portion of the equity market. jonathan: you have a great call, curve inversion may be for the end of the year. will that dissuade the fed from pushing on or does it not care that we may end up with an inverted yield curve? eric: if you take jay powell literally he said that yield curve signals are not ironclad. frankly, i am less interested in what the fed says about it now. our view has been for a long time that the yield curve would continue to flatten, that we would approach a flat yield curve by the middle of the year

with the significant risk of inversion. we know regardless of what the fed says if that happens the market will start to question the continued rate hiking cycle. the market will have serious questions about the sustainability of growth. i think that that is a big story in q2 and q3 and something that we've been arguing for since late last year. jonathan: i've enjoyed the research, particularly from you. keep it coming. can we finish this segment on good news on the covid front? the numbers are so much better. the numbers in new york were 90,000 a few weeks ago. there were 7119 new cases on monday. the positivity rate in new york is down to 5.92%. it was 23% january 2. that is a massive turnaround. tom: as predicted by our guests that we speak to.

the northeast leads the way because of vaccination. the new york times has a fantastic article. it is a disgrace the way america is versus other rich countries. even britain, it is stunning the gap between us. it is all regional. as you say, the northeast is great. jonathan: when it comes to economic data we can ignore the numbers on friday. for a lot of people that is the view. tom: we need to inform. let's look at the dow make up. we have to look at microsoft. sorry, microsoft is there with a big number and intel is a bad number. jonathan: this is why you did not take part in the interview with eric. you have been doing that for the last five minutes. tom: i have been doing dow work. jonathan: the nasdaq 100 up by 1.3%. from new york city, this is

bloomberg. ♪ >> russia's president putin is repeating his claim that it is the u.n. and nato causing tensions over ukraine. at the same time he suggests further talks could help to resolve the crisis. u.s. and european officials say that they are open to diplomacy but will not agree to a demand that ukraine be barred from joining nato. lowering expectations for the jobs report. the white house says omicron could overstate the number of underemployed people last month. payroll numbers were taken as coronavirus cases soared. opec and its allies are expected to approve another modest oil output today. at the same time they will have to struggle to deliver. they only implemented 60% of its increase. members from nigeria to russia have been running out of spare

capacity. bringing a big stock split to the market. the google parent announcing a 20-one split dropping the price to $40 from almost $3000. it could gain entry to the dow jones industrial average. sony reported strong third-quarter earnings and raised its fiscal year forecast. the credit goes to a new blockbuster spider-man movie. global news, 24 hours a day on-air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

>> inside other countries we are also preparing a package of sanctions and other measures to be enacted the moment the first russian crosses further into ukrainian territory. jonathan: the u.k. prime minister on the tensions between russia, ukraine, and the rest of the world. i am jonathan ferro. this equity market has a lift up 7%. the nasdaq up another 1.3%. a three-day winning streak, a 7% plus gain on the nasdaq. the bond market unchanged at 17912. euro-dollar positive one third

of 1%, a stronger euro going into the ecb tomorrow off at the back of a higher than expected inflation trend on the headline number. tom: is it a snooze fest? jonathan: a test of the ecb strategy this year. can they sit out 2022 without an interest rate hike? headline inflation, higher energy prices already kicking in. will that persist for the rest of this year? tom: a smart note out of germany saying the bund terminal value continues to signal negative interest rates. jonathan: they have a softer economy too. the numbers out of germany have not been great. tom: in washington we are join,d washington correspondent. we have the president coming to new york to see the mayor and they will talk domestic issues,

but he seems to be completely taken by ukraine. give us the amount of energy that they are putting into the study of ukraine. >> the president will be in new york tomorrow and i will be there with him. when it comes to the crisis now regarding russia-ukraine you can see the movement we've seen from the administration across the different institutions. you have the white house, the state department, democratic and republican senators. you can see how everyone in washington has had to shift focus. you have the head when it comes to cyber going to europe, you have individuals in the administration having to focus on this issue when their time would have been spent on a number of other things, especially a pit it to the indo pacific. tom: closer to war.

are we? >> we heard from president putin yesterday and i wanted to see what his tone was and his rhetoric when he was standing alongside a nato member, but his tone was quite modest and there was not a ton of rhetoric against ukraine itself. this is what the tv data is showing on the state-controlled russian television and websites and press. the rhetoric from president putin was against nato and the united states. he left open the possibility of diplomacy. that is what we are hearing from the criminal spokesperson, that putin is optimistic on potential security dialogue with the united states. he is not saying that he is not going to invade ukraine, you cannot write that off when you have 130 thousand troops on ukraine border as well as russian troops in belarus -- if

you look at a map belarus on the lowest point of their border is a two and a half hour drive to kiev. putin left over this door to diplomacy and the main attack yesterday was that the united states "ignored" their security proposals. lisa: we have been talking about the ukraine-russia issues amid the washington whack-a-mole. what is biden doing when it comes to new york? >> he will stand alongside mayor adams and he will talk about tough on crime, something republicans have really tried to take a hold of ahead of the midterms. that democrats are not in place to address what we are seeing, potentially higher crime in cities. he will also talk about the fact that he stands alongside police officers. he will be with eric adams, who himself was the head of the nypd. lisa: we have seen stories

talking about how certain public service jobs, police officers, teachers, health care workers, have been dropping out of the profession because they've had to be out during the pandemic, exposed, as well as the pay lagging behind other sectors. how much is this becoming a conversation that is significant in washington? >> the biden administration has been focused on the fact that they want to push forward a discussion on wage again. also, the fact that we should be giving individuals like police officers, teachers, people who have been working throughout the pandemic, people who they want to get back into schools and on the streets, but some of them, especially women who are still dealing with childcare issues, they will push forward on how there are different issues in their build back better administration, which we should note that senator joe manchin did say i don't know why you're asking me about it again, i told you that it was dead -- but they

will point to pieces of that legislation within the broader economic agenda that they are trying to put forward that will help these individuals. jonathan: when you hear the republicans speak they want three conversations: inflation, crime, education, any one of the three or all three put together. does the situation in ukraine register domestically for voters at the moment? >> when you look at the polls recently they would show things like foreign policy in afghanistan, it just doesn't. you saw president biden's polls take a hit in afghanistan, but do you hear afghanistan being spoken about on mainstream media ever? these are issues that americans will hear about and a lot of the time the press will focus on, but it is not at the top of the polls. when you look at the michigan consumer sentiment index, 70 5% viewed inflation as a crippling economic issue and there was not much of a difference when you

pulled democrats and republicans. jonathan: that is the big issue going into the midterms. >> and tomorrow. jonathan: inflation, crime, education. the biggest issues in america. lisa: out of the pandemic we saw crime rates tick up. below where they were a decade ago, but still very much a concern. education, this is difficult as teachers quit and with some of the restrictive rules around critical race theory. there are so many hot button issues that will be hard for the democrats to message that are key issues driving voters now. jonathan: in europe for one further beat, bringing ford rate hike bets for the ecb into the summer. saying that this inflation number is a bit too hot to handle. the ecb coming up tomorrow. tom: it is political.

it will be interesting what christine lagarde does as she tilts towards the dialogue with germany on this. jonathan: futures positive here, up 1.4%. on radio, on tv for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: equity futures doing nicely. three days of gains on the nasdaq. it looks like it could be four. a left on the s&p of .7%. coming down to name, alphabet. this name is a $1.8 trillion company. it is up 10% in the premarket. think about that. up 10% in the premarket. we can talk about the stock split later. let's talk about the numbers. revenue growth in the ad business for google up 30%. that is what is leading the stock higher. tom: what is the terminal revenue growth value for these different companies? no one is talking 5%, 6%, 7%, a

percent. they have a run rate percent of 15%, 18%, whatever. this is a three-your move on google, microsoft and apple. jonathan: the tech bears can go back into hibernation. can you do the same if you are a central bank and a dove? let's look at the u.s. and germany. the two-year yield in the u.s. just below where we have been. we can talk about that and friday, get payrolls. let's talk about ecb tomorrow. inside the depot rate, trading at -46 basis points right now. the german 10-year into positive territory. the curve at the front end a little higher as a push higher. we are having a conversation now about interest rate hikes for the ecb.

maybe something at the end of the year. maybe perhaps in the summer. that's a conversation i did not expect 18 months ago. inflation on the headline numbers surprise to the upside and go deeper into the five's. tom: 6:31 wall street time. you are focused on america. europe matters. we speak with gilles moec at accent investments. we are thrilled you can join us this morning. 5% inflation is a general statement. how does the germanic culture react to that and adjust the tone at the ecb. gilles: they are not going to like that. it is a big number we have got. not just because headline inflation is strong. core inflation was expected to fall below two and that's a bit

of an issue. i think many people at the ecb will look at the numbers and think we need to really think hard about normalizing policy. i was expect in them the hike in 2020 thre -- 2023. they should resist pressure to do so in 2022. trouble is clear. quite different from the delay three or four months ago. the big question was whether or not they would hike in 2024. moving into 2023, it would be complicated for them to move in 2022. we will continue q. week until october at least -- qe until october at least. it would be a stretch. central banks don't always move

away from the fortin guidance dashboard guidance. tom: one more question. how does christine lagarde deal with the heritage and legacy of okta marketing -- ising? and the germanic angst about inflation. how did she deal with that? gilles: the debate is more open than it used to and germany. 10 to 20 years ago, yes, it was dominant and you could not hear any prominent economist thinking at a less hawkish measure about policy. it has changed. the debate is more open. it's true with fiscal policy as well. not as stringent as it used to be. that helps legard.

everyone has limits and what's going on with core inflation, all christine lagarde can do is slow down the process and get the central bank to wait until next year to do it. lift off there will be. jonathan: it is not inflation in germany that gets my attention. taycan down a bit. it's inflation in italy and elsewhere. do you think that moves the dow this time and a way it did not 10 years ago? we are at five in italy. how does that move the conversation as we go deeper through the year? gilles: you have to be careful. we have tons of movements in many countries, in particular the way the decrease of oil prices filtered due to retail prices is heavily regulated in many european countries.

you have lots of pressures that can explain spikes in spain. energy prices have increased in spain because they deal -- because of how they deal with wholesale shops. for the time being i don't think there is much of a debate on cross-country differences. the focus is on the fact that inflation looks stronger than what is expected in general, globally but also in europe. the next step is to check how this plays out and pays out on wages. the big difference between the u.s. and europe is we have inflation but it has not triggered anything significant on the wage growth. if we start seeing wage data that is accelerating, probably the ecb will have to change. for the time being it is not

happening. it is taking more time than expected to get results and that is creating tension and concerns. wages are not reacting so far. lisa: time matters. as central bankers look at consumer expectation it becomes ingrained when you start putting away the transitory word. even if they subside inflationary pressures, people have a deeply ingrained sense the prices they pay at the grocery store may be higher tomorrow than yesterday. how does the ecb deal with the expectations of consumers which is such a big talking point in the u.s.? gilles: what they can say tomorrow -- it is not as if monetary policy has not reacted to the situation. there is a tapering in europe, which was not obvious a few years ago -- a few months ago. but it will end in march.

monetary policy is on a normalization path. that is one thing they can say. as a move along into the year, the ecb has been clear that probably rates also are going to stop moving. probably next year only. they need to be seen as responding to potentially adrift and expectations -- in expectations. it is not as prominent an issue as it would have been two years ago in germany. i would argue it is complicated for monetary policy at the moment to deal with inflation without creating significant adverse risks for the economy. that is a debate in the u.s. and in europe. lisa: there is an issue with how high-yield can go in your region based on the growth that has been lackluster in germany.

what is your view on that? gilles: it is fair to say the interest rate in europe is significantly lower than what it is in the u.s., because potential growth is lower. i came related debt in the countries, the risk you trigger systemic issues at a fairly low level of interest rates is much higher than it is in the u.s. we have a central bank that by nature of how we have our eurozone works, the central bank that needs to produce. the terminal rate is significantly lower than what it is in the u.s.. jonathan: the perfect guests of this morning. gilles moec. as inflation in the euro zone comes in at 5.1%, the estimate was 4.4%. a couple of years ago we got a in a bit of hot water base

we called a news conference a snooze fest. i think you might be able to stay away in the news conference even the recent data out of europe. tom: i think it will be fascinating. it will be about the politics as christine lagarde -- jonathan: you might be able to stay away tomorrow. lisa: we might actually. jonathan: we have an ecb that is finally talking about interest rates. when the federal reserve and the last cycle did its thing, the ecb set out all of it. mario draghi did not get the opportunity to raise interest rates. we thought maybe the same thing that happened with christine lagarde. lisa: in the united states people are talking about consumer expectations. people are going to get ingrained and believing inflation.

why is that not a discussion in europe as it climbs to the highest pace in modern history. they are still at historic lows when you look at your region. tom: lisa mentioned 5%. in the dow jones, microsoft is 6% of the index. mcdonald's is 5% of the index. the s&p 500, mcdonald's is only half a percent. mcdonald's has a 10 times greater weighting than it does in the correct standard & poor's 500. no one cares. lisa: it will keep going the matter what. jonathan: futures on the dow. i'm not even going to do it. nasdaq futures at 1.4%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: in the euro area

inflation surprisingly speeded up to a record in january. consumer princess jumped 5.1% from a year ago. none of the economists surveyed saw inflation accelerating. federal reserve officials have a message for investors ramping up interest rates, not so fast. not have backed the idea of a halfway rate increase in march. the most aggressive saying we expect five hikes this year. some wall street forecasts are calling for seven increases this year. and congress there is growing republican opposition to a once bipartisan bill intended to make the u.s. economy more competitive. republicans say the measure goes to easy on china while trying to eight the semiconductor

industry. the legislation is aimed at bolstering u.s. manufacturing, research and development. in winston-salem, north carolina, there's a risk of an explosion at a fertilizer plant after a fire that forced thousands to flee. the flames arrested monday night . about 6000 people were told to evacuate. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> is inevitable they will get covid cases with the omicron variant.

its ability to evade immunity and questions about the efficacy of the chinese vaccines. that will cause a perfect storm for their covid policy. it is something the world will see and the population will see, this was not a sustainable approach to a virus. jonathan: the equity market has a knife lift to it. google, alphabet making up 7% of the nasdaq 100. just for you, tom. they are trying to work it out. futures on the s&p higher. yields unchanged. crude, it sticks. tom: if google and amazon split and enter the dow, who exits the dow? do they take out intel and cisco?

lisa: the name with the lowest price. i have no idea, tom. tom: they take this very seriously. it's interesting to see he will go out the door if they enter the dow. dr. bhakti hansoti, cases rollover. hospitalizations rollover. do you presume deaths will rollover from 2500 a day? >> i do think so. there are a number of patients in the icu. but death rates will definitely go down. tom: do we have to pay attention to other climbs like india or south africa or the next country where there is the next variant? dr. hansoti: cases continue to rise. we see a 14% rise over the last

two weeks. globally deaths continue to increase for a global society. what happens in other countries matters here in the united states. we have to watch very carefully. lisa: there have been studies showing covid is killing people at a much higher rate than other developed countries. can we take a step back and look at what the problem is in the health care system the u.s.? dr. hansoti: the covid pandemic has given the significant lessons. one is about misinformation. the other is about the health system. for example, what happens to patients now with long covid? how they access care? what primary health care services are available? how does this impact their ability to get a job? we also can see the lack of primary health care has resulted in higher numbers, hypertension,

diabetes, obesity resulting in higher deaths compared to other countries. lisa: some of the data coming out from the hospital systems in terms of professionals leaving the industry. new england, which traditionally has lower on employment rates, has a much higher one now because of the lack of people in the health care industry and education. what is the main driver for the exits? dr. hansoti: the main driver is burnout. lack of sustainability. while children had to stay home due to covid exposure in the classroom, parents still have to go to work. if they did not, there were consequences to those actions. that lack of work life balance and the inability to be supportive to manage the family and professional life has lead to burnout and people making difficult personal decisions. tom: when did the silly plastic

around the desks -- what is your framework for one all that goes away? other than people wanting to wear a mess because they want to wear a mask. we saw that for asia for decades. when is all the anti-science go away? dr. hansoti: it is not antiscience. tom: the plastic around the desks, there is scientific justification for it? dr. hansoti: absolutely. the virus is spread through eva's allies asian -- aerosolization. the plastic prevents -- provides protection. it is not silliness. it is a physical barrier. when is a go away? i'm not sure. likely when we get to a stage where we are comfortable

there will not be a future surge. as we move past omicron i think it is in the near future. tom: lisa, i have to sit next to matt. he's a walking cloud of virology because he is in every bargain brookland all weekend. -- bar in brooklyn all weekend. jon says we have great statistics. when we start getting back to normal? lisa: how do we get to a normal when people believe if they get covid they are automatically going to die? how do we shift to this scenario where every illness is treated more equally rather than if it is covid you will die and anything else go out and keep coughing on people? dr. hansoti: don't go out if you are coughing on people with the flu. flu also kills. having at home testing means you

know what you have. you can protect yourself and others around you. mortality decreases if you are vaccinated. what is the new normal? i don't remember. do you, what normal was, 21 to go when we would have had these conversations? we defined the new normal and make sure it aligns with our goals as a society and what brings us joy. i do like personal interaction. i love hugging and kisses, but i'll be selective in who i hug and who gives those kisses. lisa: how do you select the latter? jonathan: i hope people are selective about doing that. tom: completely inappropriate for radio. tv can go either way. lisa: she is talking about -- never mind.

please don't leave us. tom: do you play wordle? dr. hansoti: i do, addictive. i did not do it today. jonathan: there we go. can the kind dr. go now -- doctor going out? tom: what is the capacity of the super bowl? 80,000 people? i don't know. jonathan: i have no idea. you should clarify the question you asked. there is a difference between a plastic barrier at a store separating you from paying, and the plastic around the cubicle. tom: the regional numbers, let's be clear about that. idaho is not new york. the bottom line is we got good news. the barriers in the measurements

that tell us this is over. like when google and amazon joining the dow. jonathan: this segment is over. can we pretend it never happened? s&p up .8%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is dancing on the head of a pin for the fed. >> this is not a fed that's committing to forward guidance. >> we're attempting to engineer a soft landing. >> big fears the fed is going to be more aggressive. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa, i'm jonathan. your nasdaq 5%. tom: microsoft, apple, now google. amazon tomorrow, facebook this afternoon. it's a renewed confidence in they got. jonathan: let's talk about the numbers, not the stock split.