host: a very good morning and welcome to daybreak australia. we are counting down to asia's major market opens. host 2: good evening. the top stories. investors eye inflation risks

after friday's jobs reports. china is due back online after the lunar new year break. host: the energy market heating up signaling a rally in oil may be set to continue. host 2: and australia's prime minister facing a fallout. host: let's kick it off with asia markets. we had the u.s. jobs numbers showing how hawkish we might see central banks. sydney futures. seeing a little bit of weakness. looking like relative to fair value, a fall of 0.5%. the tenure yield holding steady. -- the 10 year yield holding steady. a little strength after closing

the day 1% lower in new york. we do have u.s. dollar trading mixed against g10 peers. looking at trading in japan and korea. seeing some modest upside. host 2: look at how we finished on wall street. two weeks of gains for the s&p 500. 270 companies reporting on the s&p 500 and more than 80% have met or beaten expectations. volatility is the name of the game. the optimism was there even for the u.s. listed track. one the chinese and mainland markets open, perhaps we could see some catching up to do. the 10 year yield topped the 190

level. and u.s. jobs report beat estimates. we continue to see fresh seven year highs. it has been about the u.s. jobs market and how it is perceived and what the fed will do. this chart showing we continue to beat expectations. we saw jobs gain last month coming in at 467,000 beating all of economists' forecast even when it comes to hourly wages. leading to inflationary concerns. you have been away for a few days but the rhetoric has not changed. you come back and it is still the same. it is all about inflation and price pressures. we will get another indication this week with u.s. cpi. expectations are for a gain of 7.3%.

the highest and you will gain since 1982. decades high inflation again. host: it is like sliding back into your comfortable favorite chair talking about inflation, the labor market. all adding up to the picture of global central banks saying goodbye to the era of easy money. more central banks are expected to speed up their rate hikes. the fed a have to do more as early as next month. strong signals coming from the boe. this really coming on the back of seeing the bank of england delivering back to back hikes. the bank of canada is also set for lift off next month. the ecb could be getting in on the action next year. host 2: inflationary pressures

not being helped by the supply chain pressures. and the pandemic continues. more tensions simmering in canada. this weekend there were massive protests and spreading across the country. we are talking about incidents of violence around toronto and winnipeg as demonstrations against taxing mandates and covid restrictions continue around these major economies. host: in the meantime, i have been watching some of the events going on at the beijing winter olympics. they are some of my favorite things to watch. this is a special set of olympics in terms of the geopolitical pressure built going into just the opening ceremony but also the nature of being able to hold a massive sporting event in the age of a pandemic but also covid zero, beijing's strategy. we are seeing a close lid

system. there is a dedicated transport network. 22 million residents in beijing being protected from covid-19. a strong role in place is for athletes that test positive as well. within the loop, there is unrestricted internet access. we are really enjoying some reports coming out of the athletes village and some of the other venues. and the winter olympics kicks off in full force this week. top story, the u.s. january jobs reports blowing past expectations reinforcing that the fed can go full speed on rate hikes in march. kathleen hays is here with the key takeaways. we are hearing a lot of conversations including at the white house saying that there

were expectations that the coronavirus would crush job expectations. >> this was not just that it beat forecast. this happened at a time when the peak of the omicron cases was supposed to suppress jobs. a lot of people could not go to work because businesses were closed. let's look at the headline number. 467,000. it beat the estimates by three miles at least. it came in first at the economic reports olympics. you can see the blue line was supposed to be a gain of 125,000. 460 7000 is three times as big. let's move onto another charge. i want to show you how strong the revisions were. what we saw was 709,000 more workers. look at november and november --

look at november and december. if you look at the white and blue lines, the third is the november payrolls. on revision, up 667,000. the blue line came in -- not bad. 510,000 is a lot better. look at the omicron cases. there were 6 million people unable to work. the red lines, that is the omicron case surge. that includes the week that the government does its payroll survey. that is why people thought it would be a very weak number. there was an expected drop of 400,000. instead, businesses have opened and stayed open. they want to retain workers. the labor market is so tight. average earnings rose 5.7%

year-over-year. this feeds into the argument, the expectation of a rate hike at the march meeting is a done deal. will the fed raise rates at every meeting? >> markets have to be prepared for a rate hike at every meeting and they have to be prepared for the possibility that as the inflation process continues, we might need to have meetings with more than a single 25 basis point rate hike. >> he is part of our bloomberg's editorial team. he appears regularly on balance of power on bloomberg tv but larry summers is eluding to a 50 basis point hike. many fed officials said we did

not say much to markets but a lot of people will be wondering if that is what we are going to get. shery: and it is not just the federal reserve. we are talking about the boe and the ecb. china is seeing a silver lining. >> you left out all of the meetings in latin america. aggressively fighting inflation. the report over the weekend that china is saying they think inflation could cut down by these aggressive moves i western central banks. how will that work? if it rains in commodity prices, slows down demand, maybe that will pull in part of their inflation picture. that is another thing that could help them. we will see how much the economy slows. the u.s. economy, many say it looks plenty strong to withstand

rate hikes when we see how strong the jobs growth has been. shery: kathleen hays with the latest. we are also watching the geopolitical front because the u.s. and france have discussed joint efforts to strengthen nato's eastern flank. the french president is preparing to travel to moscow and kiev. tony, there have been media reports about u.s. officials seeing russia's buildup of 70% of what is needed for a full-scale invasion of ukraine. what we know? >> those reports were not confirmed publicly by the white house. the national security advisor, jake sullivan, president biden's top national security eight, was on several sunday tv shows in the morning here. he stuck to the timeline we have had for some time now that this could happen, a potential

invasion could happen at any time or maybe in a few weeks or president putin could back off. that is the speculative scenarios we have seen over time. but, the reports including in the new york times seem to come out of briefings that administration officials gave on the worst case scenarios including tens of thousands of dead as well. russia has denied it plans to invade ukraine at all. haidi: looking ahead to this week, what are we looking at? what do we expect given the french president's visit? >> macron has taken on a mantle. he has scheduled to go to moscow and then to kiev. the obvious sequence there including a meeting with

vladimir putin. europe generally, including france and germany, have taken a diplomatic stance over years now in dealing with russia and ukraine. after the 2014 events where russia annexed crimea. and the u.s. has to take that into account. now, biden and macron held a phone call today, their second in less then a week, presumably to coordinate their stance before the german chancellor meets biden at the white house on monday. haidi: tony, our bloomberg editor with the latest. let's turn to the oil rally. pretty key inflationary concern. ahead of u.s. inflation expected to spike again this week pointing to higher oil prices.

a fresh seven-year high above $90 a barrel. we have been watching this. a lot of traders saying demand is being underestimated. >> because we have saudi arabia saying we are soon going to return to p pandemic levels of demand and then we have the -- pre-pandemic levels of demand and then we have the iaea saying we are still below demand. they say there is a disparity but the market structure is trading clearly at the strongest level in years indicating supply is scarce. let's go into the bloomberg. at the end of last week, we were coming off seven straight weeks of gains or west texas intermediate and brent crude. the momentum has been strong. your to date danes, already up

20% and just starting the second month of the year. the pressures of the market are several -- the pressures on the market are several. traders say there is every indication we will go higher. on monday is the direction question --does a market pullback? do investors refocus? there was a lot of focus on the options contract above $100 a barrel. it is where the market believes it is going. another strong indicator is that the demand for diesel fuel because of the cold weather the u.s. is experiencing is at its highest in three decades for this time of year. another bullish factor. and the fact that acellena prices are at the highest we have seen since 2014. that is at the gas pump. that adds to president biden's concerns about inflation. we were talking about the supply

issues from libya and other major opec-plus producers. the alliance continues to boost their promises to increase oil on the market overwhelming evidence that they have not been able to do so. shery: where does china stand in all of this? and there stockpiles? >> we heard mike mulder saying he believes china may need to replenish it stockpiles and that might have investors increase their long positions. a situation he says could lead to higher prices. he says all eyes are now on china. the tail end of the lunar new year. he believes china does not yet have high enough oil prices to dent consumer demand but he says it does not look like they have taken the foot off the pedal so they are poised to replenish at the tail end. hedge funds and others he said

could increase their exposure given how tight the market is and he also points at the contract backward is asian, the bullish structure of the actual asia market continues to point to higher prices. lastly, he believes opec-plus bear capacity, the cushion that some of the big oil producers such as saudi arabia have to make up for those having problems and that is getting more narrow. he believes a could fall to levels considered alarming later this year. shery: su keenan with the latest on the oil markets. let's get over to vonnie quinn. reporter: boris johnson's from office has been called inevitable by a prominent member of the conservative party. in an interview with the observer come he says he wants johnson to have some agency in his departure. he faces a grilling tory rebellion over reports of downing street parties during

lockdown. johnson will hold a no-confidence vote soon. hong kong reported 342 covid cases on sunday. or than double the previous record. all of the latest infections were local with about 40% untraceable. health officials say there are invisible transmission chains and the community. further social distancing measures may be announced on tuesday. australia is planning to reopen its borders to international forests as soon as possible -- tourists as soon as possible. following a report saying tourists would be allowed back into the country at the end of february. the government is gathering information and could be close to a decision. australia has closed its borders for more than two years. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn.

this is bloomberg. haidi: we are still -- still ahead, a professor of political science says she believes a russian invasion of ukraine is unlikely. coming up, but the latest jobs report could mean. ben emons joins us in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: it is time now for your week ahead. jampacked on the earnings front. joe biden will host the german chancellor on monday to talk through the situation in the ukraine amid questions over germany's resolve to stay firm over russia. asia will see a handful of rate decisions in india and thailand. the uscp are printed on

thursday. the headline number for january is expected to rise further to 7.3%. setting the stage for the fed's tightening cycle with the first hike expected at the march meeting. those are your major week ahead events we are looking out for. let's bring in ben emons to talk through some of these major risks and opportunities for investors. let's start with the superstrong jobs print. and expectations for the cpi number to be strong as well. is there an outside risk that the fed will be more aggressive? ben: the base mark positions we saw in the data indicated that the economy in 2021 was stronger and also that the jobs market reached maximum employment. [indiscernible]

starting in march with a lift off. to your point, the market needs to think about futures. moving forward quickly with the rate hikes. if you take that to what the bank of england decided on thursday, they are somewhat anxious about the inflation outlook in the u.k. indicating they have to move faster. markets caught on to this. that means that is likely to happen. a faster rate hike cycle beginning in march. shery: more valuation concerns on this bloomberg charge. we continue to see a divergence between the names that don't seem to be an asset class

anymore. how do you pick the winners from the losers? ben: if you look at the difference, it is a story about the valuation was inflated so much by the pandemic, it had to be rectified. that has been going on for some time. but it is still getting a major boost from the pandemic, demand is so strong and valuation has to come back to a normal level. difficult to pick the winners. i am of the opinion that you [indiscernible] or even consumer durables. i will take australia as an example. a way to balance the act against

raising rights and rising inflation. -- raising rates and rising inflation. haidi: [indiscernible] ben: the market that is the cheapest across equities is in hong kong and it has outperformed the other markets. i think this is a function of a lot of money coming into hong kong from mainland china. it is one reason. and the u.s. -- hong kong has a very restrictive covid policy. hong kong will have to reopen at some point completely. the other asian countries including australia [indiscernible]

shery: this is how we are setting up for the market opened, new zealand is away on holiday. we see a shery: you are watchings

australia. dachshund daybreak australia. -- daybreak australia. the two discussed moves to strengthen nato's eastern f lank. they are confident about reaching a deal to avoid workbook associates may have to be made to russia. china's top economic planning body says inflation remains

immodest due to monetary policy moves outside of the country. at the reform commissioned expects tighter inflation risk to fall this year and the inverse impact of covid grows a less severe this year. producer prices are get to rise but will cool from last year. the rb eye has postponed -- rbi has postponed the three-day meeting after the death of a famous singer. slug exchanges will operate as normal. the singer was known as the nightingale of asia. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. >> scott morrison is crumbling from the fallout of

text messages sent by his own government. more, how serious is this issue for the p.m. given that an election is called to be soon very soon? >> it is not great in terms of timing or optics. one of the messages related by the deputy prime minister was some years ago and he said in that message he is a hypocrite and from my observations i dislike the way that he rearranges the truth into a lie. he offered his resignation to the prime minister when this was revealed. the prime minister declined and forgave him. some of the colleagues have been apologizing on his behalf as well saying that that wasn't a few years ago when he was in a dark place having been recently demoted to the backbench. it comes on the heel of another text message that was revealed last week of the former premier

gladys, allegedly writing a text describing morrison as a horrible person. another unnamed cabin minister sent a text saying that the prime minister is a complete cycle. --psycho. the opposition is making a a lot of mileage out of this at the moment. haidi: away from the politics we are seeing australia perhaps moving forward with plans to fully reopen its orders. what do we know? >> we heard from the home affairs minister who is one cabinet minister has been defending the character of scott, australia is to open its borders as soon as it can. it would be a huge boost for the tourism sector and the economy more broadly. pre-pandemic international

tourism in the country with $85 billion and employed about 5% of the workforce. if we get an announcement within the next 24 hours, it will be an welcome one. -- a welcome one. haidi: beijing is the first city to host both versions of the olympics. here is a look at the changes in the economy and the markets. last time beijing played host, there are climbing out of the great bubble post. the government took steps to have companies lift. back in 2008, we saw the hong kong and mainland markets growing more than six fold in size combined. that is an increase of $10

trillion in value right now. in 2022, 3's are looking for consumption to drive growth -- authorities are looking for consumption to drive growth. that is why the president is focusing on every the wealth gap which hit it -- narrowing the wealth gap which hit its big during the last olympics. we have seen a bigger divide between a witch poor and urban versus rural areas -- between rich and poor and urban versus rural areas. they have more tools at their fingertips to help them consume. at the time of the summer games, 20% of people back in 2008 working at the to the internet. the iphone was due to arrive in the country and we chat was not

invented. sportswear is a landing in chinese shopping carts. the market has grown sevenfold since the last time the olympic athletes competed in beijing. this game is among one of the factors that will see the segment grow nearly 15% per year over the next five years. the beijing winter olympics has gone off to a muted start. what we saw in the summer games, that is as covid researches and the democratic boycott highlighting political undertones of this event. let us bring in david. what do we read from the messaging so far in these games? >> it is more of a muted start. the summer games, i was there, it was one big party and it is a tired cliche but it was china's

coming out party. how we have come since then over the next 14 years, it is a different environment with covid-19 restrictions and the athletes and staff are the olympics in this closed loop because of covid restrictions. we have the diplomatic boycott that left just bought 21 world leaders coming to beijing -- that brought 21 order leaders coming to beijing. on friday, issuing a joint statement, supporting russia's claim to seek u.s. assyrians is to safeguard security i made the -- assurances to safeguard security. interestingly on taiwan, the taiwanese delegation there have competed under the name chinese

taipei but local state media was calling it by a subtle difference, calling it china's taipei. it highlights again because of the diplomatic boycott led by the united states over the uighur situation, the political undertones that is going on and china even a knowledge that one of the torchbearers who li fted the cauldron was a uigher athlete. haidi: we have the fire to contend with. the olympics closed loop containing the virus? >> it is sticking to the dynamic zero covid approach and that

dynamic approach is to lock down. there is another city in its was in china, 4 million people as of yesterday under lockdown and they are doing mass testing. that is completely outside of the closed loop and olympic bubble. within the bubble they found another 10 cases that they reported yesterday. that is in addition to the 45 or so that was found on the opening day on friday. a total of about 263 infections has been found within the closed loop. you can say it is successful or futile. china is keeping all of its athletes within the closed loop transportation, and the venues. i have spoken to a number of my former colleagues and peers who were within the bubble and it is different from the party atmosphere of 2008. haidi: thank you.

it is time for morning calls ahead of the asia trading day. hong kong can rally further after the big post-lunar new year advance. the executive director sees a more medium-term outside for the benchmark. hong kong stocks will get a lift as chinese monetary and fiscal policy further to support economic growth. haidi: investors are turning more mutual when it comes to asia local debt, that is the new fidelity monetary manager is avoiding asian bonds. central american eggs expected to finish the tightening cycles before asian bonds have slumped so far this year. putin's power-play. how uncertainty is working as a strategy for russia in destabilizing ukraine.

this is bloomberg. ♪

>> ahead of the trip to moscow, we spoke with the secure general, he told us that he is optimistic about a political solution to the crisis. >> we have nato allies and nato has capabilities that are monitoring what is going on. we see not only in across the border to ukraine and crimea but also we see in russia. we expect that there will be 30,000 russian troops. for biggest russian military --

the biggest military presence since the cold war. we have seen nuclear capable missiles and short range missiles. all of this together really is something that which is of great concern and that is why there is a danger for russian invasion. that makes it even more important to look for a political way forward. haidi: let us bring in our next guest to assess militarization is a strategy -- who says militarization is a strategy for putin. a professor at stonehill college. shery: is a full invasion of ukraine in the cards at all for russia? >> everything is on the table. i am skeptical.

russia will proceed to the road, it would be a war of conquest. such wars have been on decline and nearly disappeared. it would be on systemic and the cost for the total of that kind of war of conquest would be significant for russia. russia's economy has been struggling, pandemic has introduced all kinds of uncertainty. i am not sure. putin has an author. st -- putin has an author authitarian state. this is creating division inside of europe and highlighting pushing for a new deal in the new security deal in eastern europe. >> how is it the current

environment sitting with the chinese? putin met with the chinese president and they reaffirmed their relationship. >> it has been deepening over -- since 2001 in terms of trade levels and the russian energy relationship, china is emerging market. at the same time, what you saw with the distinguished highlights, these are two different powers when it comes to global orders. china has become a power, superpower within the big world order which rests on rules and the protection of territorial integrity of states. if you notice in the last statement that the issued,

ukraine was not mentioned. taiwan was mentioned. the russia china relationship has been increasing economic, deepening. it is dependent on the economic relationship with europe and this is relying their limits of how much russia can rely on china. >> we heard both putin and talk about others talk about the new stage of the relationship between russia and moscow -- asia and moscow. the look to -- has the need to find the alliance grown since the interference of the u.s. and the west? >> may have -- some of the language was from president putin who has been

democratizing international relations. they do, to a certain extent, are highlighted that this is a definitely new period. i am paraphrasing a book, america has exited hegemony. it was fascinating in this argument that both the document had all kinds of language in liberal internationalism. things like open shared security, safety sovereignty, democracy, they had a big session for democracy. how that is very much should be contingent on on the cultural past. is a specific -- there is a

specific scene that should be read as nato world in eastern europe as well as u.s. is on australia and u.k. and united states relationship in china. >> what about the big players in this piece? what is the ramification of the fallout of the confrontation we see in eastern europe after some of the smaller democracies or on some of the smaller rations that are not, credit? -- that are not democratic? >> we focus on a great power in geopolitics and we tend to forget the impact on some of the smaller countries as well as nations' democratic processes that have been happening there.

the skill that they are discussing here in the united states, it -- there are social studies demonstrate that this type of revelry -- rivalry will end up corroding the rule of law in countries. it will geopolitical side democratic positions in some of the cases, i, georgia, ukraine -- in armenia, georgia, ukraine. it introduces constant revelry and insecurity and makes it difficult for smaller states to pursue sustainable state building. haidi: it legitimizes the division. thank you. that is the stonehill college professor. go to your function tv go, you

can watch us live, you can dive into any of the securities are burke functions we talked about -- bloomberg functions we talked about. this is for subscribers only. check it out on tv . this is bloomberg. ♪

>> cryptocurrency is falling in

the asian trading session with bitcoin under pressure. risk appetite has returned to the market and we have not seen bitcoin about over 40,000 in two weeks. even we have seen a big surge in the session. we had seen at the boom in jobs and start ups given this huge rally that we saw in cryptocurrencies. with the burst in the puzzle with that coin falling more than 50% in november or so, hiring in that space is overflowing. we are hearing from 21 insurance which is a provider of exchange rate products, they are freezing the hiring plans. haidi: the backdrop is the great

resignation. many feeling pretty treated with the idea of working for wall street institutions, the elite and big bangs who have had so much trouble retaining young talent. of a have returned the skew. -- we have seen them return to the skew. successful candidates need to play by a different rulebook as well. we are hearing from hiring managers that they want to see projects run by the, and community and they can work anywhere, this idea of a decentralized organization. it is kind of being described as an internship. it is a whole new world in bitcoin and the talent that is being attracted to that state. shery: the long-term trend could

be upwards we may see more of these changes in the drop space. let us change to the latest business flash headlines. the peloton is considering takeover options. it is said to be working with an advisor for options. it may not lead to an transaction -- a transaction. amazon and nike could be potential buyers. india's profit jumped thanks to strong lending and the pandemic easing. the reporting the income of more than $1 billion during the period, fbi has been taking advantage of low interest rates and high consumer demand. japan is awaiting final arrangements for other assets to singaporean oil fund gic before the company is selling 30

companies which includes flagship hotels in a deal that is $1.3 billion. daybreak asia is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> very good morning. we are counting down to asia's major market open. >> welcome to "daybreak asia". our top stories is our. asian stocks set for a cautious start as rate hikes role with traders waiting for china to come back online after a weeklong holiday. oil prices continue their march upward to a fresh seven-year high. it