growth and market opportunity. >> i would want to make a distinction between unprofitable tech companies and other areas of the market that are profitable. >> i think the frothier areas of the market will continue to have headwinds. >> it will be a volatile ride. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, donovan ferro and lisa abramowicz -- jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance, live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. some big moves in this bond market. tom: big moves and we really recalibrate. i nailed that jobs report. i got that right. jonathan: you nailed the cpi report as well. tom: what we know is we are adjusting in real time.

you've got bears and bulls and they are far apart. jonathan: let's look to italy as well. we've gone from -17 basis points in the open last monday on a two-year, deposited 46 in the blink of an eye. tonight, up another 30 basis points. does that get the attention of president lagarde? tom: kailey leinz was talking that up. i look at italy, it has the economy about the size of texas and it is a bellwether. explain to our audience in america why italy matters. jonathan: it has had the support of the ecb for a long time and that support is going to get pulled away over the next 12 months if the guidance from the ecb is anything to go by. tom: commercial banking in europe is going to be fascinating. what is the one day when negative yields become positive yields? jonathan: even the most hawkish member of the ecb thought this was important.

teeing up q4 for a rate hike, 25 basis points and then again in the spring of 2023. what we are grappling with is going from nothing to something, and it is a big change for the europeans. lisa: going from worried about being -- keeping markets calm to more worried about inflation. they are now more concerned broadly about inflation which means are they going to act on the same foot on those italian spreads? jonathan: did you like that line from morgan stanley? it begins. lisa: to put some context, $2 trillion to come off the balance sheet of the four biggest developed markets central banks. tightening like we have never seen. how do markets respond given the turbulence and what could potentially come? jonathan: that is what we are wrestling with right now.

into the bond market, yields higher on a 10 year. it has been a while since we've been comfortable. here we go again. up again last week. seven weeks of gains. we talked a little bit about it. eurodollar pulling back a quarter of 1%. lisa: i don't envy fx traders trying to put in perspective all of these conflicting moves. this is a countdown to thursday kind of week. we are looking at the cpi and the united states but it is very much geopolitics front and center. olaf scholz set to meet with president biden, his first meeting since overtaking germany from angela merkel. we've not heard much from him in terms of his agenda or inflation. if you take a look at breakeven rates the next two years, they have climbed the highest in decades in germany.

how does he come about this at a time when there are 70 geopolitical concerns about oil and a potential for sanctions on russia? today, antony blinken plans a trip to austria to meet and show unity -- australia to meet and show unity with the indo pacific nations. you've got china and russia working together with some sort of relationship with ukraine, but also with the backdrop of the olympics when everyone is playing nice and getting together. it is a very strange dissonance right now. the federal reserve is going to report -- for the month of december. the december reading will be interesting. how much are consumers starting to borrow again as they deplete some of their cash piles or does this indicate a lack of confidence of the consumer if we do not see that increase in borrowing? jonathan: if you want -- did you watch any of the olympics?

lisa: i did not, but i read some of the headlines and i was struck by the quarantine camps for some of the athletes. questions around some of the supplies given to them during those quarantine periods. jonathan: i didn't watch a minute of it either. looking ahead to the date of this week on thursday, cpi, 7.3%. the low estimate, 7%. a lot of people think this will have a seven handle again. tom: as you know in our audience has a good understanding of this, there are ways you read research. this was a weekend after the to multiple last week where i really sat and read -- the tumble -- the tumult of last week where i really sat and read. do we begin to embed 7% or 6% or 5% inflation? jonathan: the head of u.s. equity strategy at rbc capital

markets joins us now. you say five good things we are seeing in the data right now and we start with the good stuff. let's start there. >> one of those we are right snack -- smack dab in the middle of, we've put out something over the weekend where we talk about how we have seen earning investments move up for this year and next year. i would say another thing that is really good right now, i think we have largely priced in a more aggressive fed. we haven't priced the economic damage and aggressive fed might incur but it has been about 17% of the january lows, right in line with the average of the last five or six fed tightening cycles, going back to the 1990's. i think the fed is in the market right now. lastly i would give you that debt bullishness. a couple weeks ago we got down to levels below 2020 lows.

what we have seen historically is that we get below -10% on a four week average, the bears outnumber the bulls by 10% or more, you see a 15% in markets over the next 12 months. that is something else that is telling us we have priced in a lot of this from the fed already. tom: hro calculates a 26% lift in earnings. coming in better-than-expected. can you already model that confidence forward? can you construct a confidence in earnings for this q1? lori: i think q1 as i have read through transcripts, it seems to me like it's going to be a messy quarter. we haven't really seen companies sit and say things are a disaster. if you look at the consumer, people are being vigilant in watching the low-end. i would set a confidence level does seem shakier than what we

have seen the past few quarters, whether you're looking at demand or confidence or uncertainty. maybe there was a little more confidence or nervousness right now, but by and large, companies are being given the opportunity to reset expectations in a nasty way for this year and the quarter and they are simply not doing it. they're telling us that demand is generally ok even though you have come through a bit of a rough patch and they've had more trouble than usual dealing with that. lisa: is there a sense of how much pricing power these companies have? lori: we used the bloomberg transcript analyzer tool. it is fantastic. we did a search on pricing and we found it has spiked so far this year. it was moving up. i noticed that as i have gone through the transcript, to be a little less discussion on the supply chain, obviously a lot of discussion on labor, but pricing has been much more in focus in a

way that we have not seen in the past and even companies that are expressing a little bit of concern about the low-end consumer are saying we will manage pricing very carefully and we are taking as much as we can get, but we will pull back a little bit if we feel like we need to. jonathan: the banks had a massive week last week. finally starting to see higher rates translate into better performance. do you see that continuing? lori: it is interesting because the financial space broadly, they weren't cheap coming into the three 40's season. the news has generally been fine outside of the higher -- i thickly got some of that bad news out of the way, we reset expectations on the valuation side, and it has allowed the good fundamentals in place right now to propel the banks higher. we will watch for that to continue. let's enjoy it as long as it lasts.

jonathan: lori calvasina, head of u.s. equity strategy at rbc capital markets. lisa: a real positive for the banks. the issue for me is how much consumers are continuing to remain able and willing to spend at a time when their dollar goes less far and frankly real wages are not keeping up. jonathan: you mentioned yield. the negative yield in debt. the move we seen -- the move we've seen, we had nearly $3 trillion wiped off of that board, of negative yield and debt. that stock is down to the low five, just underneath $5 trillion, after being close to $20 trillion a couple years ago. tom: i just finished teaching that chart on tv 40 minutes ago. all i can say is we are not back

to zero yet but it is amazing that the plunge is almost the right way to put it. you have to look at the german two-year as the mother of all benchmarks. jonathan: what time, you did beat me into the door this morning. by about three minutes. i'm pretty sure lisa beat us both. tom: you mean they can tell? jonathan: i can check. i've got the access. lisa: in real time. jonathan: you've got half that access. yields up a basis point. new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the "first word news, im ritika gupta.

a minimum of 50 members of parliament would have to support a vote and to times reports that some predict the total is approaching that. one conservative lawmaker told me it is going to end. over the weekend, boris johnson -- president biden and french president emmanuel macron talked on the phone about responding to russia's buildup on the ukraine border. the u.s. on the u.k. say russia has now amassed over 300,000 troops. a state of emergency has been declared in canada's capital over a protest against vaccine mandates and covid restrictions. hundreds of trucks have been parked in downtown ottawa nearly public -- near the parliament. the city mayor says increasingly

rowdy demonstrators pose a threat to security and safety of residents. -- has reopened to international visitors after border controls were used to stem the spread of the coronavirus. tourist and visa holders that have been vaccinated at least twice will be allowed to enter the country. shares of peloton are soaring today. the company is exploring to cover options. peloton stock has fallen more than 80% from the high a year ago. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i rick agrippa -- i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we believe there is a very distinct possibility that vladimir putin will order an attack on ukraine. it could take a number of different forms, it could happen as soon as tomorrow or could take some weeks. jonathan: that is the view from the national security advisor from new york city with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. last week on the s&p, the best week of gains of the year so far. in europe, the stock 600 has been down for five straight weeks. a single currency, the euro negative 6/10 of 1% -- two tense of 1% -- 2/10 of 1%. tom: i don't have a strong

opinion here, but europe equities? i don't know what to do with that. jonathan: i would keep an eye on two things, the euro and banks, away from the bcp or the italian markets. the euro has just come up the back of its best week of gains since march 2020. tom: sort of middle tendency, off of the guesstimate. we turn our attention in the jumble of news over the weekend, front and center, ukraine, russia, the united states and 14 other countries. annmarie hordern summarizes for us. the lead here from germany is united and decisive. are they united indecisive at the white house? -- united and decisive at the white house? annmarie: you probably heard where he said all options are on

the table. the white house were more direct over the weekend with what the sanctions package would look like. a step we have not really been very clear on the german side. i imagine the conversation in the oval office will quickly move to you have a national security advisor saying if there is a single russian troop heading over that border, that will have swift, severe sanctions. that means there is no further project -- no further progression. we have yet to hear that kind of clarity from olaf scholz, the chancellor now in washington, d.c. tom: what is our update to move any form of hydrocarbons across the atlantic? i have not seen a good summary. does it exist? annmarie: that is what they are working on. they are in discussions with not just american lng producers, but others. libya, egypt.

there are a number of little things the administration could do, not one big package. you also have to remember that europe does not have mass storage. this is not the easiest of the hydrocarbons to store. they don't have a ton of it because they use pipelines. it would be a band-aid, in terms of how much lng they could get to europe to fill that hole if russia was to cut it off. jonathan: the focus as always is on the president of the united states but today, this is about chancellor scholz and what he stands for. we still don't know the answer to that. annmarie: we know exactly what the president stands for. the merkel administration when she was chancellor, they really tried to lobby washington to not put sanctions. now you have olaf scholz, who in his own press at home is getting very much criticized. a headline over the weekend says where is olaf scholz?

it is difficult for him domestically. his party was one that wanted to engage with russia. we talked about the business ties between germany and russia. many in his own party think he is not talking tough enough when it comes to vladimir putin. we know germany will not send military equipment to ukraine. we have yet to hear him talk about -- nord stream 2 two is very much a use of leverage point -- nord stream 2 is very much a use of leverage point. i would bring you to one comment he made in german press, which is that they have to be prudent. he said prudent when it comes to sanctions and that no one should be under the any illusion that sanctions on russia won't have hard impact on others. lisa: how about this russia -china nexus, the idea that they are working together? annmarie: at the moment you have the moment you have allies trying to court president vladimir putin as well. olaf scholz is going to be in

washington, d.c. but you have resident -- president vladimir putin -- president macron heading to moscow to sit down with president putin, who just met with xi jinping of china at the beijing olympics. you have moscow and beijing forming closer ties, and part of that comes at a time when the west is trying to clamp down on russia, but at the same time trying to talk tough on china. a lot of this signals to what could potentially be a precarious future. jonathan: did you see it was jay powell's birthday? lisa: he's in aquarius. jonathan: i forgot to mention. we should be careful about birthdays and make sure we don't miss them, and say happy birthday to annmarie. i promised her i wouldn't do this but these moments are important. this is a big one. lisa: she is literally light, i'm going to run away now. jonathan: why are you at work on

your birthday? annmarie: because the past six months when olaf scholz was here, i was able to have 10 minutes or so with him. i didn't want to miss his visit. jonathan: does chancellor scholz know this, that you turned up on your birthday? annmarie: i've made it pretty clear. jonathan: happy birthday. tk went missing. where were you? tom: i was too emotional that it was her birthday. lisa: you are the schedule police today. jonathan: tom got the message and i got the reply. the response was, we are bonding over medical bills. tom: a bit of a domestic. jonathan: the carlisle has gone downhill. tom: i have to be careful what i say. jonathan: in a massive way. tom: there was a new place downtown. jonathan: what's the new place? tom: south of 59th street.

jonathan: that is downtown. are you going to tell me about it? tom: i don't know. i'm doing research. jonathan: futures down 2/10 on the s&p. futures down on the nasdaq. lisa wants to talk about the bond yields, up 1/10 of a percent. tom: just a machine. jonathan: brilliant piece on bloomberg.com. the global real yield tantrum of 2022. lisa: the tantrum is that you don't have any kind of compass when it comes to the market readout. what you were talking about with the negative yield, how do we look at a new regime where there is not that weight on yields? has the u.s. market actually priced -- accurately priced in this cycle question what i don't think anyone can predict the magnifying effect of all of the banks working in universe -- working in unison.

jonathan: are you committed to publishing every sunday now? lisa: unless i'm on vacation. jonathan: it is a great piece. i have no doubt that lisa will push that out through the day on twitter as well. from new york city, and our audience worldwide as we kick off the trading week, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: coming off the back of the biggest gains of the week for the s&p 500. good morning to you. the nasdaq right now, down a 10th. equities up last week, even with another monster move in the yield curve. switch up the board. your two year yield is higher every week so far. big move as well. this is not just a u.s. story. it includes europe and as deutsche bank points out, as more european debt escapes negative yields, there is more pressure on treasuries considering this has been an anchor for the debt market for so long.

let's get to the chart. worldwide, the stockpile of negative yield and debt. this has moved so much so quickly. back in 2020, it was pushing 20 trillion. in just two days we wiped $3 trillion off of that amount just like that. front end of the yield curve for italy. we were negative last week to start the week. we are now heading to 50. it has been a big move on the italian debt market and worldwide for that matter as well. tom: we will have to see. it's been a big move in the yield space. the focus is on europe and to me, it is global. jonathan: i know you spent a lot of time on what europe will do now as the story start to bleed out to the rest of the world. lisa: do they have a put? are they concerned about market disruption or spreads blowing out in the peripheral region, or

do they see inflation is the main concern? that seems to be the shift we heard from christine lagarde last week. jonathan: they're going to want to take things slowly. i want to be clear about where the se -- where the ecb is at. yes they are looking to unwind qe but even the biggest talk of the ecb is not looking to go quickly. it is looking to raise interest rates in q4 and do the same thing in q3 2023. people -- it has been 10 years since we's -- since we had a serious conversation about raising interest rates. the last hike, july 2011. you have to price in something as opposed to nothing and then work out what that something is. i wonder how far they can push this because before they are doing anything, we are seeing some big moves in this debt market. tom: right now we will do something which is recalibrate

off of friday's stunning jobs report. the chief economist at pantheon macroeconomics and fire on the same page. i am saying we will anticipate in early march to february wages report. that is what we've come down to is the non-accountability of two jobs a series but the real accountability of surging wages. how do you study wages 30 days from now? >> the wage numbers on friday were a surprise. the attention went on the payroll number but there is also bigger revisions to earnings and other data shows that within the three months of -- 7.7% compared to the previous three months. it just got lost in the noise. the question is what happens february and march because i can promise you that if we see that

sort of growth rate sustained, the fed is going to be extremely unhappy because there is just nowhere in the world that they can possibly imagine productivity growth would be high enough to offset the wage growth. even when the supply chain pressures have disappeared and the chips are back online and even if oil prices level off, if wage growth is running at 7.7%, they will be raising rates until it stops. tom: which way -- which wage series is most informative for our viewers? ian: you've got to be patient. we get the earnings numbers every month. it is just a crude average. the employment cost index is much more reliable because it adjusts for all of these effects and the last number, one of the reasons why the earnings report is so startling, the last eci

report was relatively friendly. it showed wage growth at annualized 5% and then we print out the earnings of 7.7% for the last three months. the pressure on that next eci which we route -- which will be released just before the may fomc meeting is enormous because if it turns out the earnings surge is some kind of statistical fluke, and the eci remains calm, then the fed is in a much better position. if the eci print matches the earnings numbers, then heaven help us because inflation -- expectations of shot up over the last couple of weeks and will rise further and people will start to talk about a much longer timing cycle as well. all the focus is how many hikes in 2022 but if we are on the verge of sustained wage inflation, it will be how many in putting 23 and what happens in 2024 -- in 2023 and what happens in 2024.

tom: -- jonathan: i remember a few payroll reports ago when you had a big number and you were sitting there, thinking this does not make sense. then we got the revisions and it started to make sense. ian: for sure. if we had the wages numbers we had, maybe the talk would have been more hawkish. i am very intrigued to see what fed officials say over the next couple of weeks, because they will be digesting those numbers and saying we weren't really banking on this. it has become a real problem. i am a big fan of the that editions -- statisticians. they are really hamstrung by the difficulty of getting survey response rates at the time that used to be, and also because the seasonal passes have gone

haywire. they do have a difficult job. i think there is a case to be made in delaying the release of some of these reports, especially payroll numbers until they have more information. that would reduce the revisions, if they just wait until they can process more data. we could be kicking our heels for a little bit longer but we would get more quality data out of this. what are these numbers going to look like in a month? it is a pretty good bet they won't look the same. we are all in the dark but the numbers cannot be ignored even if we think they are not reliable. lisa: confusing but so is the momentum of the u.s. economy. i asked to understand whether a camera stand five interest rate hikes as the market is currently pricing in, at the same time that a tightening cycle is beginning and the likes of the european region as well as the

u.k.? ian: we are in a rising rate environment. real rates are too low everywhere. balance sheets have to shrink eventually. we are definitely moving into what will be an extended time cycle. from a stepping back and looking with a third idea, i am not happy about this because it means the economy is normalizing and sustained rising real rate is a signal of normalization. for markets, it is a dislocation and it will be whipsawed by the speed of these movements. it is a difficult environment and it is not going to get any easier for the foreseeable future. the thing that i think is different is the short tightening's we have seen the last few years is the private sector is in much better shape. both households and corporations in the u.s. are sitting on massive piles of cash they didn't have the last time the fed was tightening. service ratios are extremely

low, going back decades and that means their ability to absorb higher interest rates probably is a bit better than people think. certainly not in a camp that says a couple hikes in the economy will fall over -- and the economy will fall over. they may not be doing damage to the real economy immediately but if they over tighten or they scare markets and we end up with a big correction, that complicates the situation. i don't envy them but i'm pretty sure they're going to be tightening in the first two or three hikes are a done deal. after that, everything is contingent on the market and economic response and it is pretty murky at this point. jonathan: great to catch up, ian shepherdson of pantheon macroeconomics. tom: this is a bill frank deal. bill frank is legendary in

low-cost airlines, including all the way down in south america. he is chairman of the board of frontier. he is doing this meeting. i don't have in front of me, the overlap of frontier associated out west, denver, spirit down in florida, but i would like to believe the overlap is not that great, and that is synergy. what is important is it is right at the top of the press release, they go after the hot button, a third rail for politicians in washington, which is their presumed service of midsized and small cities. that is the huge issue that will affect this transaction. jonathan: the implied value, $2 5.83 a share. lisa: who do you think among the three of us has flown either frontier or spirit? jonathan: i already thought that when the headline dropped and without a doubt it is you. lisa: it is me. i just know that we go on frontier because we have to --

he knows i won't do it. there is an issue of real budget airlines and the future of them, especially at a time when you do have larger airlines raising prices. there is a niche of how they get a foothold, whether it is that critical mass that is crucial to overcome supply chain and labor issues. jonathan: i'm distracted now. you don't buy the boys a drink on the plane? lisa: i will, but i use it as leverage to make sure it goes smoothly. jonathan: you use hydration as leverage? lisa: it is not hydration, it is coke. i would get them water. jonathan: it is tough in the premo household -- in the bramo household. futures down seven on the s&p. tom: i fly frontier from fargo to bismarck. lisa: i've done that. jonathan: the nasdaq, down a 10th of 1%. this is bloomberg.

♪ ritika: with the "first word news," i am ritika gupta. data showing inflationary pressures in the u.s. kept heating up at the start of the year. that would put a federal reserve interest rate increase next month on autopilot, likely jumping 7.3 -- a member of the european central bank season interest rate hike as early as october. they told that stevie that a 25 basis point increase is likely. a second rate hike could then take place in the spring of 2023. he is considered one of the ecb's most hawkish officials. pandemic control is still damaging domestic spending. down from 2021's already low

levels. -- down 2% from last year and a 26% drop from 2019. in hong kong, the number of coronavirus -- is now doubling every three days. a new record of more than 600 cases, putting pressure on the government to ramp up restrictions as it tries to eliminate the virus. the ceo of spotify has apologized to staff for the controversy over joe rogan's podcast, but he says he does not agree with the calls to drop him from the streaming service. rogan is under fire for making racial slurs and spreading covert misinformation. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg ♪

>> we are different in the u.s. we knew there was going to be a lag, this hospitalization wave.

we knew there was going to be this loss of life and we still don't have high enough immunization rates and we still don't have high enough boosters, particular for people aged -- over age 65. jonathan: the epidemiologist and professor at johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am to nothing pharaoh. -- i am jonathan ferro. often we get people reaching out saying just use the h word, hyperinflation. i want to remind you of where zimbabwe is. the central bank just maintained their interest rate of what? 60%. let's not use the h word when it does not apply. tom: that has been true for decades. there is some fancy mathematics involved that we don't do on monday but the answer is, you are right. it is overused and you are correct to call on it right now. let's go to the pandemic and get

an update. certainly good news for america. joshua sharp steen joins us, from the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. we are beginning to see politicians act. jonathan ferro brought up the positivity rate. can we have a rule-based or single rule system to unwind our policies on the pandemic, wrapped around a ratio like a positivity rate? joshua: i think positivity rate is important but probably not enough, because it depends on the number of tests and getting tested and a lot of tests are not getting reported but the concept you are bringing up, having an approach to unwind, i think we are seeing that happen in different places organically but the key metrics for me would be around the number of covid related hospitalizations.

potentially cases, number two. i think there is room to move and i think we are going to see over the next couple of months, it is going to be ok to slowly back down on certain measures that we have been living with. 2022 is different but it does not mean we are in 2019. tom: i will ask the question i have asked every single week. cases roll over and you mentioned the good news, hospitalizations rollover. do you presume debts will roll as well? joshua: i do think that is going to happen. it is terribly tragic because summative people are losing their lives and it is a reminder of how much is at stake and how we can't just forget about the pandemic. i don't know if you remember at the beginning or in december we were talking about this, we saw the curves in south africa and we set we are going to get a similarly shaped curve in the united states, and that is what

we have been getting. we are onto that second phase and on the others of the omicron curve, we have important work to do. lisa: dr. sharfstein, how important is it for you to keep talking about remaining vigilant , having caution, staying away from people and not necessarily going to the same sorts of pre-pandemic activities at a time when there was a primal cry going along -- going on in the likes of ottawa, children dealing with the scars of what happened. people saying we can keep going with this as we see other health issues are springing up that are consequences of the social distancing era. dr. sharfstein: i think part of the message isn't just stay away. part of the message is due more. find your place of risk tolerance, and do more. generally the person i'm talking to is ok that it's ok to do things. i'm not trying to come in with a doom and gloom message.

people want to be cautious and do not want to go racing into a huge cloud of covid, so while there are some people who are quite upset and obviously they should be listened to, but at a certain point, society gets to decide how to protect itself. i think overall, it is not that hard. lisa: going forward, you think it is important for people to loosen up. do you think this world has gotten so polarized with respect to those who are cautious and those who think it is all bobcats coming out and saying we have to take a middle ground and you have to move on, but it is difficult to do that? dr. sharfstein: it is difficult. i'm worried and i have done some podcast interviews, that you find a good middle ground and you find those thresholds and you take a step as a society, and nobody is happy with it because half of the people think it is too far and half of the

people think it is not far enough. it emphasizes how important it is for public officials and public health officials to be explaining, explaining, explaining. relentlessly trying to get as much information and social understanding of the policies getting put into place. it has been hard. people are dug in but there is no alternative. the more people who understand, the better off you are but i agree there is a big risk. jonathan: i just want you to speak to something more clearly. summative people have been talking about this report that came out of johns hopkins, that lockdowns did not work. that was not affiliated with your school. can you walk me through the conclusions of that or questions you have about it? dr. sharfstein: that was a working paper. one of the authors was related to johns hopkins. it is not peer-reviewed. the conclusion purported to be that lockdowns do not affect

mortality much but to reach that conclusion, they greeted their own definition of lockdown, and they picked and choose to -- picked and chose which studies they will review. it does not present new data and it does not change any of the basics that we know, which is that the coronavirus is a respiratory virus that transmits between people. the more contact between people, the more transmission and the more hospitalizations and deaths. early in the pandemic, stay at home policies were necessary, to prevent the transmission of a serious virus that we didn't know a lot about. fortunately we have other tools now. those include vaccines, tests, masks. because of that, we don't have to resort to stay at home policies. jonathan: we appreciate your time, joshua sharfstein, vice dean of the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. australia is opening up to double vaccinated tourists from

february 21. tom: new zealand and australia. i also just noticed in one of the papers, the governor of new jersey looking at getting away from masks in schools. as dr. sharfstein says, it is going to be on a micro basis. you wonder what it means for new york state and new york city. jonathan: qantas airways trading in australia, the stock up by 5%. lisa: and the one outlier amid all of this, china. i wonder with the focus on the olympics and the quarantining segment, wind we say, ok, we are done. can they get there, given that there is not that base of immunity that other nations have? tom: i think australia is celebrating up of the -- celebrity after what they did over the weekend -- celebrating after what they did over the

weekend. jonathan: are you wanting the curling over the weekend? tom keene, lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. features down a 10th on the nasdaq and the s&p. i wish we could repeat that.

♪ >> we absolutely think this is the year of the stock picker. >> you have to look for those companies with sustainable growth and market opportunities. >> i want to make a distinction between unprofitable tech companies and other growth areas of the market that are profitable. >> i think the frothier areas of the market will continue to have headwinds. >> i think we have to fasten our seatbelts. it is going to be a volatile ride. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: i am just here to see tom's impression of someone curling for the olympics again. can we do that again? tom: never done it. [laughter] jonathan: futures down 0.1% on the s&p. we are negative on the nasdaq 100, too. lisa: look at those bond yields in italy. the questi