tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg February 9, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EST
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manus: good morning from my middle east headquarters in dubai. i am manus cranny with dani burger alongside me at london hq. it is the stories that set your agenda on daybreak europe. global stocks climb as the selloff in bonds -- easing concern over monetary policy. a giant today for earnings this morning. we speak to the ceos of multiple
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companies. moscow undercuts emmanuel macron, saying no was reached in ukraine. we get the very latest. a warm welcome to the show. i came in this morning and one of the three things i need to know, it's quite anemic. it's time to buy the dip with no real solid reason for the term. there are known unknowns and there are things that we know. when it comes to hatching for tail risk, there are profound lack of appreciation of the risk. let's take a listen to the man who hatches for black swans. >> there is a profound lack of appreciation for how dangerous the market is and how embedded all this liquidity is in the financial system. dani: isn't it earnings that are supposed to save us?
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people don't appreciate it. there is concern out there that we are not getting that safety net. bank of america says 6% of earnings have beat so far in the season but 40% of that is down to amazon and downgrades are exceeding upgrades as well, manus. i don't know if we are headed for a bubble. earnings are not that good. where do you hide out? manus: joseph sums it up you to flee from you. let's take a look at what he is saying. it's about the cure. you can raise the interest rates five or six times. increase in rates is a cure worse than the disease. you should not attack the supply side of the problem. therein lies the conundrum. sibor six rate hikes. there is a pause for thought in
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the equity markets. take us through the board. dani: pause for thought after some slight gains yesterday. looking at your s&p futures higher by .5%. we are looking at bonds. some buying today, yields coming in by 2.7 basis points. brent crude, a little bit of a pause after the huge rally we are trading at around $90 for brent crude and aluminum. trying my best accent here. it is trading at a 13 year high. it is all about tight supply. both in china, europe, demand so strong. chinese state backed funds have intervened in the stock market to support battered equities. the move is intended to slow the pace of declines and comes as market stability remains the key priority for the government. for more, let's get to paul dobson. national team coming in strong. what sort of impact have we seen so far? paul: we have seen a
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stabilization in the markets today. in the first half of the day, the session in the morning, you know, the chinese mainland indexes were trading behind the rest of asia, not falling, but not rising very hard. we have seen a bit more of a pickup in the afternoon as well. everything across the board looking pretty green and healthy today. as you were saying, from our reporters, the purpose of the intervention was not necessarily to trigger a big turnaround and rally but more to slow that pace of declines, to act as a circuit breaker to study -- steady the shift. what we have seen in previous instances where the authorities have stepped in, the more immediate index has been a decline in volatility. that stabilization of the violent forces does not necessarily mean that there's going to be the bottom.
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it continues to drop even after the fall from the international team. it plateaued and is starting to rise again in that period of time after the authorities intervened. manus: one of those came out during your conversation. a hefty sneeze. thank you very much. paul dobson with the latest in the market spewed our executive editor in asia. intervention stabilizes in the stock markets. juliette saly has the data and history to decry that proposition. juliette: as paul was saying, we did see momentum coming through in the afternoon session. certainly underperforming some of the other moves we are seeing across these markets. we are seeing most of them
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mentioned in the tech players. alibaba rising after softbank said we are not behind the one billion adrs earlier in the week and easing regulation bringing some calm to the property developers in china. while also watching the bond selloff updating similar to what you are seeing in the global treasury market, that is being reflected. the yield coming off the march 2019 highs. let's have a look at what the boj did because we know yields on the 10 year have hit that fresh six year high and they opted not to intervene and step up their quarterly bond purchases. the boj is kinda comfortable at the moment with where yields are but there is a lot of speculation if you see it getting towards that ceiling of .25 percent. there could be intervention. that will be a bit of a guessing game for bond traders. dani: comfortable but for how long? thanks as always. juliette saly. let's get straight to our guest.
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multi-asset fund manager. georgina, good morning to you. i want to pick up where jules and paul just left off. are you a buyer of chinese equities? >> that morning. thank you for having me. i think china is really interesting. they are at a very different point in the policy cycle. a lot of other markets and while we are talking about tightening, they have done their tightening and now they are looking at easing policy measures. it is an interesting market. we like the mid-caps in china because i think some of the more targeted ways they are using their policy tools right now and market stability is important to them. so it is interesting but focusing on the mid-cap arena rather than the larger cap stocks in china. manus: good morning. good to see you. where does the dollar go?
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i want to get your topline thoughts. a lot of people are are calling for a pause in the bond drought, calling us to buy the dip, and i'm wondering where we jump off with the dollar in the cross-asset allocation? a lot of people said it should rule over. do you agree? georgina: i think the u.s. dollar still has some support, to be honest. it is always that tug-of-war -- is there a cyclical reason to buy the dollar? better growth in the u.s.? versus more defensive. if things go wrong, we want to hold onto the dollar. we were somewhere in between at the moment. we had to be careful buying the dollar against. some areas are playing catch-up on policy. still having some dollars in the multi-asset portfolio. manus: georgina, stay with us. georgina taylor, multi-asset fund manager. coming up, the ceo's of
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companies to talk about the oil markets and the conversation on the buyback. that is in 20 minutes. dani: a rough ride for peloton. the company cuts its revenue guidance for the full year. investors focus on speculation that there could be a takeover in the works. more on that story later. this is bloomberg. ♪
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so-called black swan events. now to him, it correction in the nasdaq is moderately relevant. georgina taylor sharing his stoic abuse. 40 basis points doesn't matter. correction in the nasdaq, who cares? georgina: it's interesting. 40 basis points historically is not a big move but relative to where we are today, it still feels proportionately a big move in markets. we have not really seen, you know, a huge move in recent months past the initial phase of the pandemic. i also have sympathy that markets are very vulnerable to changing macro environments because all of the areas that have done incredibly well have been big beneficiaries of low interest rates, discounting cash flows. we have been able to put aside
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valuations and set more of the same. this can carry on because there is no alternative for equity markets. i think there will be more volatility this year. maybe it is too early to call the big moves because you have got the bottom up support. the earnings support for the markets but i think we just got to be careful going forward, accepting the one-way election will move for it. dani: earnings to start the wednesday morning. i do wonder, when we are talking about liquidity, i want to get into the walker -- wonkery. liquidity conditions for the stock market are some of the weakest that they have been. they look similar to march 2020 where people putting in orders are not able to get the price quoted on the spread and thus we are getting these huge moves in single stock names like facebook and amazon. is this a problem you are seeing and how concerned are you?
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georgina: i think anything that questions liquidity is an issue. as an investor, you have to be very aware that we have been in pretty exceptional times when it comes to liquidity in the markets coming from everywhere. be that from the investor base, be that from central banks, and so for us, the one area that i would be a little bit more concerned about now is credit. you have to be very careful in the corporate bond market and some of the changes that are happening on the policy side. we are not seeing anything overly concerned yet but there is a changing condition ahead and i think we have to factor that in. it has been very one-way for a lot of the stocks that we mentioned. the macro environment has been supportive. there has been a huge amount of flow into those areas of the market and that means we have to reassess what we think the downside will be for positions if we are going to have exposure there. it is certainly more we have to consider going forward from here versus what we had to consider
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for a few years. manus: which parts of credit are you most concerned about? we looked at this yesterday, georgina, and the high-yield space in europe, asia, and the united states of america. in a relative sense, it is not exploding. it is rumbling. what are you most concerned about? where would you reduce your credit exposure? georgina: we are least excited about investment grade but i'm always slightly torn on this because, you know, the spreads are low. as yields rise elsewhere, that hurdle rate i suppose is holding corporate bonds in our portfolio, rising every day at the moment. but when you look at the high-yield market, that is a slight concern because it is a low level of default rates that are really being priced into some parts of the market. it's across the board, we would be a little bit concerned. more in the investment grade space.
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given the themes this morning, the risks are rising so that's be mindful of that in our exposure. dani: i do want to ask you about leveraged loans. they have held up remarkably well over the past six months despite the fact that we have seen high-yield start to fall. investment grades start to fall as well. peter points to this and says that it is just a simple repricing of credit risk, not a reassessment of credit risk. in other words, the market is not that worried. what is your take? georgina: i think that there is no suggestion that the market is incredibly worried. it is not something we focus on quite as much but i think that there is nothing that suggests the market is really repricing the corporate risks that are out there. we would agree with that and we all often say when we are looking at the corporate bond
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market, the loan, it is ok that it's not ok. we don't quite know where the risks are coming from yet but it might be through to the bottom up. this change in backdrop and how many companies are hostage to a higher interest rate going forward, a lot of companies have been very dependent on bank loans, for example. that is something where the conditions are changing quite markedly. you really want to factor in some focus on strong balance sheets for companies you want exposure to. the interest rate environment is certainly changing in the background. it is a slow burn. it doesn't feel like it will happen in one go. manus: when you see such extreme moves on days last week in the likes of amazon and then on the other side of the trade, facebook, i just wonder what
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goes through your mind when you hear people sort of say it has dropped by $250 billion, maybe it's a buying opportunity. when you look at tech, how are you going to dissect tech as we go forward? there has to be a reappraisal of what your view on tech is in the united states of america within the mega tech and mega beast companies? dani: -- georgina: as far as macro investors, it has been complicated because these are not just single names in their own right. they are dominating so many indices now so even when you are taking a view on the u.s. market relative to europe, you are having to factor in a view on these tech names. what i do think is that some of these labels that certain segments of the market have been given, we have to put them to one side. be that growth, be that technology, it's all about single stocks within those segments. again, if you think about from a
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regulatory perspective, from an interest rate and discount rate perspective, these companies have to be vulnerable. for us, it's more about be careful how these names are dominating. i think secondly, volatility. the volatility of the whole index will be driven by just a few names. as investors, we are having to incorporate that. amazon over here somewhere but let's think about the semiconductors and all of these areas within global tech which perhaps is more interesting or more sustainable. dani: before we let you go, where are you looking specifically for that outside of the u.s.? georgina: taiwan is interesting. again, there is a huge amount of political risk out there. we understand that but some asian markets can see that tech theme and do it from a better valuation starting point said that is where we would focus and maybe you just admit the global sector as well as a theme going
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forward. dani: thank you so much. a pleasure to have you. multi-asset fund manager. let's get over to the first word news. juliette saly is back with us in singapore. juliette: russia has -- emmanuel macron account of his talk with vladimir putin after a five hour meeting with the russian leader in moscow, an official said putin agreed not to undertake any new initiatives in the region. the kremlin declined to comment on the details of the discussion. moscow repeatedly denied plans to invade its western neighbor. >> we spoke with president putin. he told me he would not be at an escalation. i think that that is important. >> there is a warning that border controls imposed since the end of the brexit transition period have piled costs on businesses and hit trade blows. the report says they may face
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more holdups if intervals tighten further. boris johnson carried out a reshuffle of his top team, promoting jacob to a new job in charge of delivering the benefits of brexit. the competition chief says ditching instagrammed would free up 20 minutes of her day. she made the comments when asked about a row with facebook's parent company. meta was threatening to pull out of europe. it now says it is not planning to do that. >> if it doesn't work anymore, that would give me may be another 10 to 20 minutes today. it is for every business to consider if they want to do business in europe. this is not for us. this is for them to do. i think it still remains to be seen. europe is a very attractive ways to do business. in politics, you should never threaten to leave.
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you should always threaten to stay. juliette: a cybersecurity firm has surged on a report that it has been an acquisition target. microsoft is in talks to buy the company to bolster efforts to protect customers from hacks and breaches. a deal would add to microsoft's range of products. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani, manus. manus: i will pick it up from here. a rough ride for peloton. the company cuts its revenue guidance for the full year. investors focus on speculation on the takeover story. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i have been doing this 30 years and i have never seen markets like this. >> our production was a record. >> 12 months that go on this channel. we were reporting the largest loss that the company ever made in its history. >> begin to put the pandemic behind us and we see demand growth is very strong. >> this is a molecule crisis. we are out of everything. i don't care if it is oil, gas, you name it, we are out of it. >> and you can easily see a further tightening market throughout this year. frexit will continue to be a situation. >> what we have seen is extraordinary volatility in the gas markets. >> we need more investments in that to help. >> we saw it towards the end of last year really peaking.
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>> oil prices, it's always difficult to tell. >> $100 is certainly within the realm of what we could see. longer-term, we think markets rebalance and prices will moderate. dani: moises speaking to us about the oil and gas earnings and really speaking to the ceo shortly. let's stick with the earnings story. peloton and lift -- lyft reported earnings after the bell yesterday. the firm's present diverging narratives for investors after the pandemic and later today, the return of disney to the world's largest entertainment company. laura wright has been digging into the details. a turbulent week for peloton. ring us up to speed. laura: the results are a sideshow given the drama that we have seen play out. another intraday record yesterday. peloton rising 25%.
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actually, 50% over two days. the ceo and founder capitulated to the demands of the activist investor and will be replaced by an executive experience with leadership roles and netflix as well as spotify. for the fiscal full-year forecast, they came in below estimates. connected subscribers will be around 3 million. for lyft, we learned that covid is still a headwind. they came in below the forecast but interestingly, lifting's revenue reached an all-time record in the fourth quarter at $51. for disney, it's all about disney plus. the streaming service. analysts are concerned following what we saw from netflix because it turns out that adding more subscribers is expensive. can disney bring up the goods to keep us all interested in content? manus: i am solidly behind
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estimates. moscow says no deal was reached on a meeting monday on ukraine. we get the latest. manus, bulls have pointed to the earnings picture as the thing that will save us as central bank liquidity gets sacked from the market. -- sapped from the market. according to bank of america, 40% is due to amazon, and at the same time -- the micro is not saving us now. manus: no, it is not. amazon is a big portion of that. what we need to grapple with is the regina shift in the central bank narrative from -- regime shift and essential make narrative. and from monetary policy easing to monetary policy tightening. therein lies the challenge for the market.
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a manager of risk for those dark moments, the black swan moments, and a lack of appreciation about how dangerous it is for the market is embedded in all the liquidity in the financial system. that is his view. he says last month was not anything to get distressed about. regina taylor said she had sympathy for that view. we are in for more of a bumpy ride. dani: there is no alternative. manus: we have a ceo waiting in the wings. s&p 500 index brings it over the line this morning, up 0.5%. is the bear market done? 43,600 on bitcoin, down 1.2%.
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let's get to our ceo, it is norway's equinor. it is europe's second largest supplier of natural gas. they are beating the estimates with a comfortable set of numbers. alexander lacik, -- anders opedal, president / ceo, equinor joins us. where do you need to see oil markets remain to continue a $5 billion payout and the dividend you have delivered? anders: good morning. sadly, we have record response this quarter, and because of the record results in 2021, a proposed increase in the share buyback from $1.2 billion to $5 billion in addition to the $.20
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per share and extraordinary dividend for the fourth quarter of $.20 per share per quarter as well. this is because of the good results. it is because of the high oil and gas prices but due to solid operations. we increased our production by more than 3% in 2021. and in particular in gas we increase production by 16.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021. dani: how long do you see energy prices staying is elevated as they are? anders: it is always hard to predict oil and gas prices, but the fundamentals that we see at the moment, it has been invested
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not enough in oil and gas. we see that there are low inventories in the oil and in the gas. there are geopolitical tensions, ukraine, russia, iran and the u.s. and the european gas market because of extremely low inventories, this needs to be filled up over the summer. we see a strong outlook for oil and gas in 2022. we also see every time there is a lot of changes in the prices, we expect strong prices, but we expect also volatility. manus: those are a heady combination. if nord stream 2 is blocked, and escalation in the crisis in russia and ukraine, it could be nord stream 2 is blocked.
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the gas market would panic. if that happens, how do you see it playing out? will the gas market panic? what will that mean for supply and your demand sequence to europe? anders: we tend to have gas coming in other ways. it could be more lng or gas from russia or other pipelines as well. it is not necessarily only the nord stream 2. the only thing i can focus on is to ensure we are delivering as much gas as possible to europe. we will continue to do so. the annual production from equinor over the next six years will be around 40 bcm. we can look at those as a reliable supplier of gas to europe.
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despite all the other activity and geopolitical tensions that we see. dani: i understand no one wants to make a prediction of what geopolitical tensions will look like in months to come, however, as equinor, you need to be prepared for these things. what steps are you taking should we face an escalation of tensions? anders: to be quite open, there is nothing much more we can do. norway is already producing regarding gas. we are also producing oil at the maximum rate over production capacity. the hope is for us to ensure we do not have any operational issues, that our gas operation to europe holds down. our risk management is what we are focused on. europeans can expect gas from
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us. manus: you said you are the reliable partner. with bernard looney on the show yesterday, we talked about how much capex you will put in in the transition to more renewables. bp will put in 50% of capex 2030. what will you deliver in capex to renewables and the diversity at equinor by 2030? give me the meat and match number. -- meet and match number. anders: we will have a ratio of more than 30% in 2025, and more than 50% in 2030. this is up to 2026, we will spend $3 billion u.s. to invest in renewables and low carbon solutions, and up to 2030 we expect to invest around $50 billion in renewables and low
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carbon solutions. and then 50-50 between oil and gas and renewables. this will demonstrate the transformation we are doing as a company. in 2021, 11% of all the spending we did were in investments in renewables. we are investing. dani: we are running out of time. i want to get one last question. carnegie analysts entity or balance sheet and described it as drowning in cash. it is so evocative. if you are drowning in cash, what is the priority of putting that to work at equinor now? is it shareholder return or capex? anders: what our priorities are now is to invest in projects, and we have a solid
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project pipeline in renewables, oil and gas, and low carbon solutions. it is about distributing competitive capital dividend to our shareholders. we will focus on this going forward. manus: thank you very much for being with us, president / ceo, equinor, anders opedal. let's get the first word news. elliot sally has that from singapore. -- juliette saly has that from singapore. juliette: [indiscernible] the report by a committee as u.k. lawmakers may face more hold up. separately, boris johnson has carried out a mini reshuffle of his top team. hong kong is to limit gatherings on private premises for the
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first time since the covid outbreak. no more than two families can meet in a home while public gatherings are restricted to two people. people will require vaccinations to enter shopping malls, hair salons and food markets. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thank you so much, juliette saly in singapore. diplomatic efforts are continuing over ukraine. fresh from talks in moscow, president macron landed in berlin to meet with german chancellor, olaf scholz, who returned from washington where he met with president biden. we are joined by maria tadeo in brussels. we have german chancellor olaf scholz who is back. germans are satisfied with this trip, or are they in terms of optics? maria: the substance and the
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optics were very important for the germans. the german diplomacy was very concerned and has been for weeks about the way the narrative of germany closing up to russia too much, about business deals on the gas front, and this is a country that is not a reliable partner. coming back from this trip, the german delegation did say this was a successful trip. all of olaf schultz made it clear in english and a full press conference on prime tv to make it clear that germany is a country that defends and supports nato. germany will make russia pay a price for invading ukraine. he reiterated this is a country that has spent billions on helping ukraine. we are not sending weapons but we are sending billions to this country. they feel they were successful with the trip, and that the optics were important. going to ukraine, going to d.c.,
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to moscow, to ensure they are taking their security seriously. manus: the question remains, are we on an offramp, as you look at macron, and the various responses from la olaf schultz, where are we on the ground? maria: if you look at the market, especially russia and the stoxx yesterday, the ruble, they were pointing to some relief. on paper, nothing has changed. we know vladimir putin and the kremlin made it clear they gave no assurances to anyone that they will pull back at any time. the french say there has been no escalation, and for the time being, that is the goal. they say vladimir putin will never change his mind in 24 hours. only he knows if he will invade or not.
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the reality is, the goal we need to aim for is to make the situation stable. that is a description of where we are. nothing is changing or worsening, it is stable. european diplomacy says that is good enough when you have 100,000 troops stationed in eastern ukraine. dani: thank you very much, our european correspondent in brussels, giving us the latest, maria tadeo. manus: coming up, the ceo of pandora, alexander lacik, joins dani and i. how are they balancing physical to digital? this is bloomberg. ♪
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i'm dani burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai. pandora has forecast and adjusted ebit margin for 2020, and announcing a dividend of 3.3 billion kroner. joining us now is alexander lacik, ceo, pandora. we have the numbers you are reporting here. your reporting a dividend, a buyback program of 3.3 billion danish krone. are we at a normalization in terms of where we are versus pre-pandemic? china is a sore spot. how close are we to normalization? alexander: first of all, last year was a record-breaking year for pandora despite the pandemic. our company is in a good spot. your specific question, are we getting back to normal? i think so. except the asia-pacific, where
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we still see some restrictions being imposed. across the rest of the world it feels like we are moving a little more back to normal. that new normal might look different from what we are use to. the browsers we had coming into the stores are more online nowadays. the people coming into the stores are much more intent on purchasing. commercial rates in the stores are very strong. manus: we need to understand the balance for your business going forward. how much will be digital to physical? do you think there is a case to rip up the script and go full digital? alexander: that is the old way of looking at the world. everything in digital these days, the transaction might end up somewhere else. 65% of our customers are men.
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men need help buying jewelry. the services we offer in stores are far superior than what you would find online on your own. that is a fact of life. there is nothing to be ashamed of. dani: this is close to me, because i am of the age were everybody i know is getting engaged. everybody is talking about diamonds. i know pandora has debuted lab grown diamonds. what advances are you looking at next? can we expect any partnerships, or new styles that will get people excited again, as everyone is looking to get hitched, apparently? alexander: we test launched a lab series, a narrow collection in the u.k. last year. that was for us to figure out if the pandora customer was willing to trade up the type of pricing. it is different from normal
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business. we got a resounding yes from our customer base. now we are looking for a global rollout of this collection, and probably expanding the collection to more than the current cut that we offer in the brilliance collection. we see that this is an interesting market. we offer an interesting proposition not just from a price standpoint, but the whole concept. we offer diamonds accessible to more people. i'm quite excited about this. manus: we are going to go off piece. on my phone i have a variety of social media that send me messages about products on instagram. if instagram was banned from europe, how would that hit your business? alexander: listen, our base communication platform has been and continues to be broad traditional media like tv.
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social media is a good complement. if a platform like instagram would be banned, i'm sure that interest would find itself on other social media platforms. i do not think that would be on an ongoing basis a major disaster for us. short-term may have some shakiness. fundamentally, our media platforms are not based only on social media. a little bit less of an impact. dani: before you can advertise a product, you have to have the product. we have seen record commodity prices and tight supply. how difficult is it for you to source the materials to put into pandora jewelry? alexander: the biggest product or material we use is silver. there is no scarcity of silver, there is plenty of it. within silver what we try to buy
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is recycled silver. there is plenty of this to go around, so we do not have any shortages when it comes to the raw materials that we use. dani: higher prices? alexander: silver price went up at the beginning of the pandemic two years ago. it cruised around $16 per ounce for almost 10 years, then it skyrocketed up to $28. now it has come back to $22-$23. that inflation has already been around for a while. no major issues there, no. dani: thank you so much for joining us this morning, alexander lacik, ceo, pandora. coming up, plenty more ceo interviews.
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manus: it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." 12:00, u.k. time, it is brazil cpi. a small climb in the december reading and the 12 month inflation. expected to pick up in january. 1:00, we get the boe economist. dani: later this afternoon we are also expecting russia cpi. inflation continues to accelerate, as it is everywhere, keeping the central bank on course for further monetary tightening. then 5:00, policy. finally, disney released its latest quarterly numbers after the close of regular trading.
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let's get a quick check on the markets. manus: i've got more than one provider. dani: on a more serious note, we are looking at futures moving higher. manus: the nasdaq -- our guest this morning made it clear you can no longer look at the confidence in indexes because of the movement we have seen in tech. one hour two -- one or two names cannot bend the indices. -- can upend the indices. dani: 40% of the beat due to amazon, and we are seeing guidance missed estimates the most since the start of the pandemic. not everything is as rosy.
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"bloomberg markets: europe." i'm anna edwards in london. mark cudmore will join us from singapore to take us through the market action. the cash trade is one hour away. mark a relief, global stocks climb as a selloff in bonds abates on easing concern over monetary policy. freight rates are in focus. the danish shipping
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