>> in terms of the fed, i think they are in one of the most difficult situations of our lifetime. >> they have to take monetary policy over the coming months to combat the upside risk to inflation. that's what they need this year is a hefty dose of patients. >> i would like them to get out of this. >> the market is being overly simplistic in pricing five .5 fights. jonathan: this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: we are almost at the weekend. from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. futures down 0.5% on the s&p. the focus is the bond market. tom: a lot more data checks and the dynamics of the market. what matters is the ratio on the

real yield this afternoon. the real yield moving, giving us a lesser negative number. the ratio is the difference in yield between two's and tens. jonathan: deutsche bank, citi, they are looking for a 50 basis point rate hike in march. goldman looking for a move every meeting. bank of america, we are out with that call two weeks ago. seven hikes in 2022. when i put out that call on tv, radio, the amount of criticism for that call, and all of a sudden it is almost consensus. tom: this is important. we make careful note of who is wrong and who is right. we have respect for people who are getting it wrong. from transitory to where we are now, can we stop and do a shout out to two guys were the lights are very bright, mohamed el-erian and william dudley.

they may be wrong down the road. they absolutely nailed the shift of the last eight months. jonathan: they have been right. i am catching up with mohammed later at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. gina, looking at equity strategy, what are we baking in? gina: i think the equity market is pricing six or seven hikes over the course of the year. we have seen the biggest correction in the equity market prior to a fed hike going all the way back to the 1970's. the equity market is prepared for interest rates to rise on the short end. the problem is uncertainty about the balance sheet. some denial that ultimately the fed will have to address the balance sheet. i am worried about that risk in the future. as long as the fed does proceed with increasing rates in relatively short order, the equity market is well prepared. tom: let me ask you a question because our guest is not going to answer it. gina, what does it mean for the

major banks of the u.s.? gina: the banking sector has been on fire over the last five days. we have seen financials leading the s&p 500. we have seen capital flooding back into that space in anticipation of interest rates moving higher. as the yield curve flattens, that short rate moving higher is generally considered positive for earnings. the market is telling you this should be a good condition to invest in financials. jonathan: equities down 22 on the s&p. we are down 0.5% on the s&p 500. the nasdaq down 0.7%. yields coming in a couple of basis points, another 2% on tens and twos. with us now, we get lucky. the head of u.s. rates strategy at bank of america global research. ethan harris came out with the

fed rate call, seven hikes two weeks ago. that has changed quickly. you oversee the balance sheet side of the call. what is the team looking for now? mark: kudos to ethan. he had a great call at seven hikes this year. the market is now pressing that. that is rapidly becoming consensus. there are still questions about whether the fed goes 50 in march. we have been recommending clients position for 50. in the markets mind, it is likely the fed goes 50 in march and maybe even 50 in may as well. on the balance sheet, we have been pretty aggressive on the timing of balance sheet qt. we believe the balance sheet reduction will start in may, and it will go aggressively. the fed will likely have 100 billion reduction caps on treasury and mortgages.

they will face into that over three months. while they are phasing into those caps, they are going to allow the holdings of which they have 125 billion to rolloff immediately. what this means is the fed can shrink the balance sheet by over $100 billion right out of the gate as those redemption caps phase-in. we think the fed will see the balance sheet shrink by $1 trillion in 2022. that is $1 trillion in 2022. and another trillion in 2023. the fed will be tightening not only through rate hikes at the front end of the curve, but they will also be tightening by adding duration risk at the back end of the curve. jonathan: stop. let me jump in. seven hikes this year, one trillion dollars of balance sheet reduction this year. i want to talk about the

call. what does the yield curve looks like with all that going on? mark: maybe inverted by the end of this year. we think the back end of the curve only has a limited capacity to rise. we revised our tenure call from 2% to 2.25. the backend of the curve is going to have a hard time rising in the face of tightening financial conditions and concerns about slow economic growth. meanwhile, the fed is going to be raising rates at the front end aggressively. we think you're going to be looking at a pancake flat curve on twos and 30's by the end of the year with risk that becomes inverted. we don't think the fed is going to feel bad about that because they have inflation problems. they need to tighten monetary policy pretty quickly. they need to tighten beyond neutral in order to slow demand

and get control of the inflation issue. gina: if you have an inverted curve forecast by the end of this year, are you calling for recession in 2023? mark: our forecasts are only for a flat curve. we are not at inversion yet. we are not calling for a recession. what we are calling for is a gradual slowdown in the economy over the remainder of this year and into next year. an inverted curve does not necessarily mean you are going to be in a recession right away. inverted curves have a reasonable history of preceding recessions, but with variable lags. we are not in the recession camp at this point. we are saying the fed has to take policy into a place where becomes tight in order to deal with the inflation issue. you have got to slow aggregate demand to get a handle on inflation. that means the curve has to be

flat or inverted. tom: i don't want to front run you on what bank of america is going to suggest. with the top of an emergency meeting and the fundamental idea that threatens central bank credibility, if they have an emergency meeting to change the balance sheet dynamic, does that threaten fed credibility? it is an original effort, original action, does it actually threaten fed credibility? mark: great question. there is a lot of chatter in the market right now, especially following st. louis fed presidents comments yesterday. we think and intra-meeting hike is quite likely. they will follow the market in the hiking path, but they do not like to surprise. we think it would be unexpected to see the fed deliver and enter

meeting hike. from the san francisco fed saying she thinks a couple hikes are appropriate. she is not sold on 50, let alone a hike. i would encourage you and everyone listening to pay attention at 3:00 today. it is important. at 3:00 today, the new york fed is scheduled to release its final purchased calendar, the final month of its paper scheduled to be released at 3:00 today. if the fed releases that today at 3:00, that is strong forward guidance that they are not going to be doing an intermeeting hike. jonathan: is there a chance that they do not publish that and just end qe now? mark: there is a chance of that,

but we do not believe they are going to wait until 3:00. we believe if they make the decision to end taper early, they probably are going to tell us soon, like within the next couple of hours. we would be surprised if they waited until 3:00 to make that announcement. i don't think the fed is ready yet to signal an intermeeting hike. that means they are probably going to publish the calendar at 3:00. look at the february fed funds futures. it is showing rising odds. you want to play for a continuing fight, we think you're better positioned to play for a 75 basis point hike in march. jonathan: the idea of seven this year, the possibility of maybe 50 in march. you seem to be having a discussion about that. balance sheet reduction one trillion this year, one trillion

the year. talk to me about destination. can you put a number on that? all the calls we are seeing, some people going to five. some people joining you at seven. they are not moving the terminal rate. they ultimately think we end where they thought we were going to end three months ago. where do you think this ends? mark: the housecall is that the terminal rate is between 2.75% and 3% at the end of next year. terminal is going to be above neutral because the fed has to tighten. tom: i want to go to the history of this and the incredible moment you just described on this friday morning in 2022. the late alan meltzer of carnegie mellon wrote an important essay four years before he died in 2013 where he was scathing from the conservative over quantitative

quicksand. the fed has got to deal with quantitative quicksand right now. are you suggesting we could see action as early as this morning to delay or dismiss the new york fed action this afternoon? mark: it is certainly being talked about in the market. the chatter around this was very high from our clients on the trading floor yesterday. there is a buzz about that in the market following comments yesterday. this 3:00 announcement is a very strong signal, forward guidance. if it comes out as expected, than they are not going to go into the meeting. if it doesn't, then the odds are going to go up meaningfully. we think the intermeeting hike is a fate. if you want to position for that, you are better maybe

driving the fed to go 75. jonathan: unreal. just fantastic. mark cabana of bank of america. i remember talking about it on air. the pushback we got was big. two weeks later, there we are. people gravitating towards that call, not running away from it. tom: this is important. what is important is rarely do you have a strategist representing such an institution like this bank to start talking about what ifs of this friday. it is something to talk about within the gossip of this historic moment. jonathan: it is an original moment. i am jonathan ferro. futures down a third on the s&p. the nasdaq down 0.4%. yields are up on twos. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> mi open to it conceptually? sure. there will be times when we need to do that. there have been times in the past where we have to. i think there is a need right now? i would have to be convinced. jonathan: the richmond fed president on the fed guesses. they continue to pour in. with tom keene, and gina martin adams, i'm jonathan ferro. they are down a similar amount in the bond market. the 10 year down three basis points. on twos, what a move it has been.

up almost 90 basis points year to date. yields coming in at a single basis point. the rate hike calls keep building for 2022. tom: we have had a bit of a pause in the last hour. looking at the difference between the two year and 10 year, round it out to 43 basis points. a little easing off of tensions over the last two hours. i proxy is 24.55 on the vix in the equity markets. nowhere near the tension of a 38 vicks. let's look at the politics of disinflation call -- of this inflation call. emily, 1974, i remember it as clear as i can. it was a comedy from the moment gerald ford said whip

inflation now. it signified how absolutely powerless authorities are to whip inflation. what does whip inflation look like now? emily: a lot of it looks like tackling the covid-19 pandemic and the results of the covid-19 pandemic. bottlenecks we have seen in supply chains, the inability for so many companies across the u.s. to get what they need. there is some division on this. you have seen president biden say this means we need to help americans more with prescription drugs and childcare. you see those like joe manchin saying any spending is out of the question. tom: gas tax, this, that. at the bottom of her note, she says one way is to target some form of relief to poor people who are hammered by a gas tax,

hammered by a gallon of gas. why can that not be done in your washington? emily: there are discussions of starting to be done. two senators who are going to be facing tough reelection, senator maggie hassan and senator mark allie are calling for a suspension of any gas tax while prices are so high. you are seeing republicans do the same thing. virginia governor glenn youngkin says he wants to suspend the grocery tax in virginia. there is some discussion about that going forward. democrats are increasingly aware that high inflation is not going away anytime soon. if it continues into the summer, americans are going to continue to feel hurt and blame the party in power, the democrats. that is not going to look good for the midterm. you have heard from congressional leadership that they want to continue moving legislation to address the supply chain backlog. from the white house perspective, they have been talking with the fed.

they have been looking at potential other options for how they can address this issue even though it is a global issue, and the white house only has so much power. gina: given the white house only has so much power, how much do you think they will start to lean on the fed? they have addressed a lot of different angles of inflation. at some point maybe they start to shift. it is clear the present as the face of america that's a lot of the blame, cannot control everything. do they start to shift blame to the fed and lean on the fed to tackle inflationary conditions? emily: it would be interesting to shift blame to the fed they have gone ahead and renamed powell. that shows a sign of confidence. we will be interested to see those nominations go through the senate, how much republican support they are able to get. that is something to be watching. i think president biden can only

shift blame so much. he is the president. he said he is going to be getting out more, going to places around the country. you saw that in virginia. he is willing to be the face of his party. he is willing to accept the responsibility and the blame. it is a question of what the white house is going to be able to do. it will be interesting to see if there is a shift in the messaging. certainly biden has said inflation is going to go down. this is only temporary. it has become quite clear to the biden administration that is not a line they can continue to use because they continue to be proven wrong. gina: when he does go out, how much do you think he does need to take the blame to shelter congressional members that are rerunning? he needs to take the blame for his own party to get his own party reelected. do you see some of that language starting to emerge? emily: to a certain extent.

one thing you always watch during an election year, do democrats in these challenging races stick with the president, or do they try to distance themselves? congresswoman abigail spanberger faces another tough race this year. she was welcoming biden. she tweeted out a photo. she was in the front row while he was giving his speech. there is confidence among democrats that biden is doing the right thing, that they are not going to harm themselves by being seen with the president. you have seen the president trying to show empathy with families struggling with high gas prices. jonathan: emily wilkins down in d.c. i am still reeling from the conversation we had five minutes ago. if you're just tuning in and missed the conversation with mark about. seven hikes this year. 50 basis point hike in march possible. emergency meeting unlikely.

$1 trillion of balance sheet reduction this year, and one trillion again next year. you wanted an idea of what balance sheet reduction would look like, if you plug that in, what with this equity market look like? gina: i don't think the equity market is going to tolerate that well. i don't think the equity market is accepting the idea the balance sheet will contract. we are accepting the idea that balance sheet expansion will end , which historically has been difficult for the equity market itself. a contraction is tricky. in the grand scheme of things, we are in a balance sheet that is at nearly 40% of gdp. that does not even get us back to 20% of gdp. we have become accustomed to this degree of support from the fed. removing that support is not going to be an easy task for anyone. tom: this is a fed that needs to find cover. maybe the cover is 3:00 p.m. this afternoon. jonathan: matt of deutsche bank

is going to weigh in next. he is looking for 50 basis points in march. these calls are huge. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: what a moment for this economy, this market. futures recover a little bit. down 0.1% on the s&p. two year yields start to back away from that 1.60 level we broke through earlier. two's, tens, and 30's. two year yields come in by three basis points. we had a little look at 1.62 earlier. the calls we are seeing on wall street at the moment warrant more attention. bank of america, seven hikes for 2022, terminal rate of 2.75 for three. $1 trillion this year. $1 trillion next year. can you imagine what this yield

curve is going to look like? tom: i cannot imagine. the distinction, we don't have time for it now, is this word flat versus inversion. that is a loaded observation we just heard. jonathan: essentially talking up the possibility of this chart, two's versus tense, inverting. the spread between the 246 basis points. it has narrowed. that curve has gone flatter. tom: to a lot of our listeners and viewers, this idea of inversion just means recession. tony dwyer has been articulate on that. what is important here is not like japan, managed flatness, just the market reality of flatness as they unload those cash flows out. everything we are talking about is original. jonathan: i think to trillion dollars of balance sheet reduction, i will let gina do the speaking for me. is it fair to characterize your

thoughts as messy? gina: i think it will be very messy. think of how methodical the balance sheet changes were in the last cycle. each one of them resulted in a market correction of between 15% in 20%. anything this rapid is absolutely going to create turmoil for the market, unless we get an explosion of growth. that is the one thing the equity market can continue to hope for. hope is not a strategy, but we can continue to hope that growth continues to come through at a faster pace than anyone had anticipated. that can offset some of this risk. jonathan: futures recover. that is the bank of america call. deutsche bank coming up in a moment. they are looking for a 50 basis points in march. let's get you some movers. good morning. >> nothing in this market has been orderly. the tail is wagging the dog. you talk about the selloff yesterday led by tech stocks i'm

out all the gains tuesday and wednesday -- tops, wiping out all the gains tuesday and wednesday. they are basically flat to slightly higher in the premarket. when we talk about what has been moving this market, keep an eye on these names. keep an eye on a firm. those shares came out yesterday. they came out earlier. accidental tweet by the company. confusion about whether the earnings were good or bad. the market decided they were bad. they are down another 10% in the premarket. a lot of concern about that company's growth story and the idea of some of the gains they made during the pandemic may not be sustainable. we will see them at the 4:00 hour on bloomberg television. we were focused to lock in on zillow last night. the shares fire 13% in the

premarket after they made a little more progress winding down that home flipping business. we are going to focus on the gambling apps. super bowl lvi is sunday. tom: is that profitable? is the basic idea going into the super bowl that draftkings is a going concern and it is grow, grow, grow for bedding. >> they have turned it into profit. with national and mgm moving into the online betting space, you are talking 35% more people are expected to bet on the super bowl. about 70% more dollars gambled is the main metric here. tom: he will have his super bowl prediction. on short notice, we are thrilled to bring you matthew lives at eight, chief u.s. economist at deutsche bank. quantitative easing and out quantitative tightening. i go back to 2013 and the axis

of alan meltzer out of ucla, legendary, alan meltzer saying this is a bad idea and david for birds in the heat of the bundesbank had the courage to say ecb must qe. just damage for that. the heat was there. bring us to the deutsche bank call on quantitative tightening. >> thanks so much for having me. we have seen a lot of movement in terms of the inflation data yesterday. we could talk about rate hikes as well. from a balance sheet perspective, our view has been at the may fomc meeting the fed will announce the maximum amount they will run off. at the july fomc meeting, they will announce the actual drawdown. think that amounts to $600 billion this year, $1 trillion next year, 1.6 trillion over the

next two years. what does that mean in terms of overall tightening? we have done a lot of work trying to equate that to interest rate hikes. that is 2.5 to three rate hikes. seven times equivalent this year, three times next year. you are talking more than three percentage points and effective tightening from the fed. jonathan: let's start with the 50. 50 basis points in march. what a difference a ten made. why did 10 basis points move that call in for you to 50 basis points for this fed next month? >> it is a great question. no doubt, 0.1 does not seem like much, but i begin with the jobs report, which was stronger than expected, which showed

accelerating wage inflation. the number one data point was the inflation rate that gets rid of the two tales. it is a good metric of underlying inflation. that rose on a 12 month basis the most on record dating back to 1983. there is evidence within the underlying details, rent inflation picking up, health services inflation picking up, a little upside surprise today, but it tells us about the inflation trajectory over the course of this year since the fed will have to upgrade their inflation forecasts, risk to the upside remains. for march, the question is does the fed need to rebalance themselves so they are better positioned to deal with a base case of higher inflation and upside risk? i think it as akin to the doubling of the taper we got in december. the fed should undertake a 50 basis point hike in march. jonathan: gina is going to have

questions for you on balance sheet reduction. there is another cpi before the meeting on march 16. is there anything for you between now and then in the schedule data that could reshape your call for this fed in march? >> we will get munication from them. we will hear how they are thinking about it. we had a few fed officials yesterday giving divergent views between jim bullard and mary daly. the jobs report will be important if that shows weakening. the next cpi report, we expect to see higher year on year rates than today. i don't think anything is going to look better by the march meeting. i think it will put additional pressure on the fed. if we enter that blackout period, the real question for the fed is do they want to

surprise in the dovish direction to meet inflation at record high levels? my sense is note and that they will want to deliver on that expectation and reposition themselves better to respond to the inflation outlook. gina: we have been talking about the balance sheet this morning. it has been terrifying to think about the equity market contending with much greater activities from the fed than anyone was anticipating having come into this year. what is your outlook for growth? we have talked a lot about the fed and what the fed will do to contain inflation, maybe suppressed growth expectations, but the offset for the equity market -- what is your outlook for growth going into 2023 to offset some of this tightening? >> our growth forecast this year is 2.6%. it is nearly 1.5 percentage points below the fed's forecast. that is very optimistic given the current data. we have growth decelerating to

2% next year. that is a backdrop of meaningfully decelerating growth. if that is what you get, you get a tightening labor market. the real risk is we have not been able to factor in this more significant tightening we are anticipating from the fed. i think that is pointing to greater downside growth risk. the bigger picture story is we have a fed that is fighting inflation, achieving a soft landing is never an easy thing for a central bank. it is especially not easy in a world where headline cpi is 7.5%. the fed will try to do so. we do see risk of a downturn recession as you head into 2023 and 2024. our favorite cyclical indicator is sentiment index is at record low levels.

it is suggesting recession risks are approaching 50% over the next year. i think it is overstating the case in the near term, but it is indicative of the risk we see further out. gina: what is your forecast for the curve if you have this combination of slow growth but aggressive fed normalization? do you see the curves and burning over the next 12 to 18 months? do we avoid an inversion? >> i think that is a risk. how does the fed balance the tightening on the front end versus the balance sheet? we have heard from a number of fed officials that they want to do more on the balance sheet to do less on the fed funds rate. i'll don't think that is the base case for chair powell, governor brainard and john williams. i think they want to tighten via the front end. if they are forced to tighten as much as we anticipate at 175 basis points of tightening this

year and another 75 at the front end care, there is a risk we see the curve invert. the lag between that and in session varies, -- and recession varies, eight to 24 months. there is a risk that there are meaningful downside risks to growth. jonathan: thank you. tremendous work on consumer confidence. we get consumer sentiment numbers from the university of michigan later this morning. we have got to work through some massive calls. 50 basis point rate hikes the middle of march. huge balance sheet reduction. we started this morning talking about how much in the market and where in the market we discounted moves of that magnitude. do you think we have price to be market for that? gina: i don't think we have priced balance sheet and the equity market. think about the whiplash we have experienced in six weeks. you go back to december, and we

were talking about a slow tightening phase emerging. nobody had a real sense of when the balance sheet expansion would and. now we are talking about massive change from the fed. i don't think the fact -- the equity market has had enough chance to forecast what is happening with tightening. i think we have gone a long way to forecasting it, but not yet. jonathan: i remember when people thought the december news conference was dovish. it was not that long ago. gina: just shocking. jonathan: jim is going to join us next, copresident cio apollo management. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

>> we believe if they make the decision to end taper early,

they are probably going to tell us soon, within the next couple hours. we would be surprised if they wait until 3:00 to make that announcement. honestly, i don't think the fed is ready yet to signal an interm eeting hike. jonathan: why is 3:00 important, that is when the new york fed puts out its purchase schedule for the mother had. look out for that. a little later this afternoon. tom: we need to stop here. we have the perfect guests for this. what is so important here is it gives chairman powell cover of a calendar item where he maintains control through something that is on the calendar. jonathan: the only thing we can say is that is something some market participants are looking at. what happens, i have no idea. should we get to that perfect guests? tom: jim zelter of apollo global

management. what is great here is the immense cred of actually running money. the path from smith barney a few years ago onto citigroup and apollo. jonathan: copresident and cio joins us now. let's talk about the business and then into markets. the inflows fantastic for the quarter. credit strategies accounting for 60% of that. what is driving that? jim: it has been an amazing platform, banner year. we have performed across the firm. we deployed a tremendous amount of capital from all those metrics. investors do well. we provide a variety of solutions. the business is performing on all cylinders. 2021 was a banner year in economic performance. we certainly need to expand our

role in the infrastructure of the economy. credit is the lifeblood of the economy. last time i was out we talked about a variety of platforms. we are still expanding that area to one of our three five-year strategic goals. 2021 in the revere very -- in the rearview mirror. jonathan: what is dominating the conversation this morning is the price of credit. we have heard maybe 60 basis points in march. what does it change for you for the company on what you do day-to-day? jim: we play in expanding role in the credit markets, whether it is the platforms on auto free finance businesses, all of those we are in touch with the end-user.

the marketplace is robust. consumers are in relatively strong shape across the board. no doubt we are seeing wage and other inflation in the marketplace. the credit markets are not rolling over now. we are at historically low rates . defaults are expected to be low the next six to 12 months, certainly as you get to 2023 and 2024, that may change. tom: you are such a student of wall street. i have got to go to the leverage question. usually when things blow up for wall street, american wall street and global wall street, it is this evil thing leverage. what is the state of your wall street now? are they exposed with the leverage to any interest rate dynamics that we could see? jim: in my three plus decades, i am not seeing on the wall street

participants of sized areas where there is a complete lack of discipline. if there is aggressive lending, they distribute and syndicate in a manner. certainly, if you look at the leveraged loan market, the high-yield market, with equity valuations so strong, there are a number of things to talk about loans of value on enterprise values that are at the extreme levels of high. in most of the things in our business, what we do at apollo for our institutions, we are a senior lender, top of the capital structure. i am not seeing the big pothole out there, housing or leveraged finance that you saw in 2008 and 2009. tom: the wall of money that is out there, a terrific infrastructure announcement of

luggage billion dollars, i cannot remember the details. it is a blur. how do you adapt to the limited alternative investment wall of money that is out there? jim: you evolve. the reality is the world is short duration. long dated yields on tension assets. there is a lot of secular drives that growing wealth around asia, the middle east, latin america. tensions are in good shape. the rallies of the last three years have put many pensions around the globe in better shape. as they get to 100% funded, they transfer that equity risk to more income. if you look at the role of private credit and yield is now a permanent part of investor strategies, your point is

well taken when in japan rates are relatively zero, they need this type of yield strategy. when apollo does well in terms of responding to that with our returns, there is an insatiable appetite that exists out there, and all we are doing is putting the capital from our investors at the intersection of borrowers who need solutions. it is a trend. we are fortunate coming into a business where every day the backdrop and the technicals actually get better. jonathan: great to catch up. appreciate your time on this market. what a fun time for a lot of people. jim zelter. in the market it might be fun. in the real world, it is not so much fun. consumer confidence numbers later this morning. tom: i have not looked at five and 10 like i will be looking this morning.

i cannot remember when. i want to go back to someone who was immense support to meet on bloomberg on the economy. this was stephen, who came out of the midwest and went on to a claim at brandeis and then the bank of international sentiments. -- international settlements. out of the cleveland fed, brian and wiggins, a million years ago, 1997, i could be wrong. they said there was a better way to measure inflation. what cabana is saying is the adjusted trimming where you take 80% of disinflation -- take 8% of disinflation, what is left tells you what is going on. the cleveland number is ugly for chairman powell. jonathan: that is why those banks, deutsche bank, have got

to do more. what a great lineup of guests this morning. it continues with emily roland and john hancock. from new york city, jonathan ferro. futures down a quarter of 1%. ♪

>> i think the equity market is a little bit of reprieve here. >> are called this year has always been more subdued market returns. >> in the u.s., standup, take about. >> the opportunity for this year will be more outside the u.s. >> i don't know that anyone prospers in an inflationary environment. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, lisa ramos, and jonathan ferro. tom: most interesting