taylor: let's see how equity markets and cross asset markets performed on the day. the white house briefing with jake sullivan, talking about hiding tensions between russia and ukraine. that is exactly what moved the equity markets, closing at the lows of the day. it looked like it would be positive on the week but all the data erased with geopolitical issues front and centerl. . bond yields are climbing on the week. huge cpi numbers that we got on thursday really impacting the markets with a massively flat

yield curve of 42 basis points. that number was 60 a few days ago. it is all about all of these political events coming together with the federal reserve now looking at a two year yield that has been rising for eight straight weeks. 17 basis points on the week, going back to the highest we have not seen since 2019, and going back again the last 12 years. how do we think about the market moves amid the geopolitical events? that if the discussion of what you missed, which starts right now. ♪ romaine: i'm romaine bostick and risk assets under pressure on this friday. geopolitics at the center of it off. u.s. is warning russia could take offensive military action against ukraine as early as next week. russia has repeatedly rejected

charges that it plans to invade ukraine. the u.s. national security advisor jake sullivan spoke earlier. mr. sullivan: we want to be crystal clear. we are not the saying -- not saying a final decision has been taken by president putin. we have a sufficient level of concern based on what we see on the ground and what our intelligence analysts have picked up, that we are sending this clear message. romaine: bloomberg chief washington correspondent anne-marie on the ground outside the white house within the building where there have been diplomatic efforts to bring this crisis -- this tension to some sort of an end. now, you have jake sullivan talking about a potential military response. is the diplomatic effort over? anne-marie: absolutely not and we are just learning from the white house this hour, president biden will speak with president putin tomorrow morning. the president left for camp david. the phone call will take place while he is there at camp david.

he will meet with national security teams. the kremlin in russia saying president putin will have a call saturday as well with emmanuel macron of france, their second conversation in two weeks, so you see president putin sitting down with the american president and a european leader, the first time putin and biden will speak since december 30. you can see the tension escalation has really gathered pace since then. taylor: is this all to get our attention? the commentary said putin does this because he wants us to listen. well, we are listening and engaged. what is the end goal? annmarie: that is a great question because if the kremlin maintains they do not want to invade ukraine, we should point out domestically, the polls in russia show the public has little appetite for a war with ukraine. 80% in a recent poll seek

stronger ties with the west. president putin definitely wants to talk security concerns. he has made that very clear as of today. they said they reject what nato and the allies have put forward in terms of written responses. they wanted individual country responses. this is something president putin once, not a united america, a heavy hand of american diplomacy and foreign policy alongside european. he wants division within these individuals, within these leaders, within these countries, and so far, they have been pretty united, but we should not discount the fact that president putin has 130,000 troops on the border and in 2014, he annexed crimea and since then, there has been fighting in ukraine. this has not gone away. sonali: the idea that president biden and vladimir putin will meet tomorrow is not new but what do we know about what the conversation might look like?

annmarie: i imagine a conversation will be frank as the president has described his last conversations with president putin and i imagine it will be, if the united states believes that president putin could invade, even before the olympics ends, which is separate 20th in beijing, because there were talks he would not want tag -- antagonized xi jinping, this would be a frank conversation on the offramp to bring back the troops. taylor: our correspondent annmarie hordern. we want to use this opportunity to dig deeper into geopolitical ramifications, and we will do that with senior fellow with the eurasia center ariel cohen, an expert on russia, eurasia, and the middle east. answer some of the questions anne-marie was trying to answer for us. the end goal, if it is to get our attention, putin has our attention.

european allies and the u.s. what do you see as the end goal then? ariel: over the last 30 years, the balance of power in europe shifted. 30 years ago when the soviet union collapsed, russia was lying prostrate, pulled out troops from eastern europe, from germany, poland, baltic states, and nato expanded. today, russia built up a considerable military muscle, ukraine is relatively weak. the leadership in ukraine is divided and not very competent. russia is pushing to engage ukraine, which is considered as historic lands controlled by the russian empire for hundreds of

years and also russian troops are in belarus now. the leader of the larousse -- belarus is going over to talk with putin. this is an opportunity for putin to build his legacy when he is thinking about his place in history books. he would be the one who re-created the russian empire the historical context is important when looking at right he would do this. there is also historical context for nato and western allies as to why they would want to stop this from happening. we fought a world war over this. a lot of people died over this. nato exists over this. can nato, can the western allies, muster the courage to fight back against this if they choose? ariel: i don't think anybody has advertised to go into ukraine and fight russia there, with the exception of ukrainians. also, nato was created in 1948

to contain the soviet union, after world war ii, and if it existed, maybe hillary not have undertaken the aggression -- maybe hitler would not have undertaken the aggression. the invasion of georgia, crimea, in syria, without putin meeting existence from the obama administration was encouraging russia to become more and more aggressive, and then the fruit of that aggression. taylor: we were speaking earlier about a wave of condemnation what that would look like if russia were to proceed and the threat of potential sanctions. what is the bar for sanctions and what would they look like. how can investors prepare for that? ariel: we see that oil is high.

some of the metal that is exported will continue to go up. i think a lot of military equipment companies will go up. we are in the beginning of a new round of world war -- yeah, world war four. the cold war, russia 2.0. if the cold war we thought in the 1970's in 1980's and before that was world war iii, and the united states one, russia is a sore loser. putin's generation is of the kgb, the ones who want to bring it on and teach the west a lesson. they think they succeeded in vietnam or whatever and then we succeeded in afghanistan. they think that are abysmal retreat from afghanistan was a sign of weakness, and that was

an extra trigger, why this is happening now. taylor: that makes sense when you put it into context. talk to us about -- romain has mentioned this and it was posed to jake sullivan today. does prudent risk provoking the chinese if he does this during the olympics -- putin risk provoking the chinese were if he does this during the olympics? ariel: he does, and we saw the big statement in rich -- which moscow and beijing loudly say they are together, opposing the west, and by the west, i don't just mean euros -- u.s. and work -- europe but transpacific west with japan, australia, possibly india, so the world is being divided in two camps as we

speak, as we are watching this history being made in front of our eyes. you know, i have published my phd dissertation as a book on russian imperialism. i did not believe i would see the main issues of that playing out in front of our eyes. i said can russia be a nationstate and a democracy or an empire? it is an empire. romaine: it will be interesting to see what the next chapter will be. giving us a lot of insight into what to expect in the mindset of vladimir putin. we will take a look at the market reaction. we saw the selloff in equity markets and the spike in oil. we saw the assets like gold, treasuries, and the dollar and will discuss that after the break. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ taylor: today's triple take, everything on the political and the market reaction to all the headlines around 1:30 to 2:00 p.m. that the u.s. warns russia could take offensive military action against ukraine as early as next week and russia continues to deny those allegations. let's bring in our own pretty to break down the tensions -- kriti gupta to break down the tensions. you always go crass -- cross assets, yen, dollar, what do you see in the traditional safe havens? kriti: it is a classic haven bed. you saw weakness with the ruble.

index rising .2%, under pressure most of the session today your same story with the yen -- today. same story with again. i will include bitcoin because bitcoin can be a risk assets so it should drop but it has a major russia connection. russia and kazakhstan are some of the top bitcoin minors. when you look at the house rate, the power it takes to matt -- mine bitcoin, a lot of that is found in russia. taylor: i like to talk bitcoin. i don't want to talk bitcoin because i like this note from yelena that says no one wants to hold a high bid currency into the weekend. there is other tradable assets that are still --these talks

continue into the weekend so what is the risk for traders going into saturday? kriti: let's talk about emerging markets because the ruble is something a lot of people look at. it has never recovered in terms of price since the 2014 sanctions. you got 35 rubles for the dollar and now it is 75. once again, it has never recovered and in the process, 77, even worse. romaine: you are planning a trip. this should work out for you on your exchange rate. taylor: on my moscow marathon that i will no longer participate in thanks to remain. the traders are the only ones in the market winning out. romaine: i saw a headline that said -- had sold off everything. is that true? kriti: i do not have our goes on my speed dial but everybody -- several people look at that. it is important to talk about risk trade because it is a big move and when we talk about the currency trade and the exposure to russia, we should keep in mind russia has made a lot of attempts to de-dollarize, trade

oil and things like the ruble and barter. $620 billion of central bank conserves --reserves will run out quick if sanctions arrived. whether these attempts stand the test of potential sanctions is what traders are heading a -- hedging against. taylor: let's talk about full faith in credit. the long-term perspective has been yields higher and romain had a good point earlier that you think yields are rising and then something like this happens . there is nothing like the u.s. treasury, who heads flock to in times of uncertainty. fives and tens fell on the basis --fell today so you are looking at 41 basis points.

how are you looking about the short-term versus long-term trend, which is the fed has to move quickly? kriti: the geopolitical headlines --you can see it in intraday trading. every time a russia headline crosses the wire, you step into the 10 year yield. there is nothing like the usa for haven asset. you should keep in mind going back to 2014 to 2008 with the invasion of georgia, you did not see as much of a rattling in the stock market. you saw a little bit of adept, but the stock market cap marching higher. the bond market, those yields continued to drop so you start to see the long-term effects there. compare that to what you see with the hawkish fed. you see of tug-of-war. romaine: when you come in on monday morning, what will you check for? kriti: oil, wheat, aluminum. taylor: you have to add weight to the board. romaine: kriti gupta, our smartest guests on the program.

let's stay on this topic. we want to pivot more to commodities. we saw oil rising with tensions in ukraine causing people to flock to brent crude and wti. sheila is joining us to talk about this. break down the moves we saw in the oil market today, particularly on the back of the headlines of what is going on with ukraine. sheila: as you pointed out, brent crude, the global benchmark, touched $95 briefly and then it came back down. all of this is tied to the russia-ukraine tensions. we have been talking about that the last few minutes. a sickly, the market is very jittery. the u.s. is telling people there might be -- advising people

there might be -- basically, there could be an attack before the olympics. all of this is projecting tension in the market. romaine: just real quickly, when we talk about the reaction in the market, are people concerned about the potential impact on production or the impact on transport of oil? what is the concern? sheela: the biggest concern is still supply. we have already been seeing the market going up. we have reached seven year highs even before today, so it is all on the back of the fact that supply has not been in step with how demand has been recovering since we came out of the pandemic. demand is still strong, and it is expected to stay strong in the next year or so.

we had the opec revising some of the estimates earlier this week, so at the same time, opec is not producing its quota the way the market had anticipated, so we are seeing a little bit -- the supply situation is as anticipated, and that is what the market is worried about. if any of these tensions boil over and it becomes a little bit -- a lot of difficulty sending supplies here and there, it will definitely call -- take a lot more uncertainty. taylor: are the geo: -- geopolitical premiums built in here or is wait to go here to factor in that risk? sheela: that is already there and it is growing i think. it is probably why we saw volatility going up as well in the options market. you probably saw the headlines on that one, as well, so in

general, i think the markets don't know what to expect from this or they do have an idea, but it is so tense and especially against the backdrop of supply deficits, this is definitely like very, very unusual situation. taylor: we have less than a minute left. the future of the nord stream 2 pipeline. are you following not? sheela: we are to an extent. it is the basis of some of the tension between yeah -- russia and ukraine. taylor: really appreciate it. breaking this down as we go across assets between oil and gas, currencies, commodities, we do it all and will do it next in our final take and break it down. this is bloomberg ♪

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romaine: a wild week here. our triple take focuses on that geopolitical issues in the inflationary issues. you have a market that is working at all -- not working it all out. taylor: data will be a focus for investors, counting down to a month out from the fed meeting in march. we may have to talk about geopolitical events again. sonali: that story will be complicated. the economic data is complicated. stocks down today, safe havens higher. romaine:romaine: this was across asset type of week you're at it we focused on equities a lot by you talk about the move in commodities and treasuries and what we now see in the currency space. taylor: next week, ppi, retail sales, walmart earnings, fundamental analysis as well. it is the story of dollar strength, relative to weakness on the ruble. romaine: that is not very often the ruble is up there but that was the big mover of the day with the bid coming in for the

dollar in the yen. it will be interesting to see what happens next week. taylor: happy weekend, everyone. that was what you missed. bloomberg technology is up next here in the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> from the heart of, money, and power collide, in silicon valley and beyond, this is "bloomberg technology" with emily chang. emily: i am emily chang in san francisco, and this is "bloomberg technology." elon musk envisions that one day this spacecraft will take people to mars. we up at the latest on starship,

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