they do not get aggressive. >> i would like them to get on with it. >> they have been going 85 miles per hour in the left-hand lane, and they need to catch up quickly. >> we actually think the fed comes into this year like a hawk and leaves it like a dove. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: risk aversion in the markets. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. down.8 on the s&p. tom: the vix going to the 30 level. we had a 31 handle moments ago. the global metric right now being brent crude. we got up to 96, 94.72. jonathan: the last thing the

economy needs is another leg higher in energy prices. tom: i did the math with matt, kailey, and dani. the over $100 a barrel -- it's $118 a barrel, the average price , so that gives you a much to look hold -- to look to hold onto. jonathan: welcome back. lisa: i heard i missed nothing. if you look at yields, they were almost the same place they were when i left. it seems like it was an incredibly eventful couple of days. the interesting thing about oil prices are some of the projections about what that means for global growth, whether it is mike wilson, who is becoming known as a perma-bear, even though he is not, $100 a barrel would take about half a percentage point off of u.s. and

european economies over the year. jonathan: 4900 on the s&p down from 5100. lisa: but that is a bullish call p of their art people coming in even further, mike wilson saying there is a polar vortex of risk. there is i diversion of opinions -- there is a diversion of opinions. jonathan: let's get the view from tom keene -- tom: what happened over the weekend and what we will really focus on this week, particularly with retail sales coming in in a few days, is growth. mike wilson mentioned date. he is focused on growth. we have been talking about it. i think we have been upfront about this. at the end of the day, it is about economics and what is gdp going to become a real and nominal. jonathan: when you read through the mike wilson note, consumer

confidence friday, fresh decade low. that is where his focus is right now. higher prices are starting to hurt confidence. tom: the bulls was a we have had a nice washout, correction, if you will, and you have to go optimistic here. again, we start the week focused on growth and focused on these raging debates, plural. jonathan: futures on s&p down 0.8%, down 150 or so on the nasdaq. -- jonathan: do you want to come back to that in a moment? have you said happy valentine's day to mrs. keene? let's try and have a serious show. tom: i know. jonathan: thank you. lisa: how is that serious show looking -- working out for you? there's not as much data as later in the week we get retail sales. we do get your men chancellor olaf scholz heading to ukraine

today. tomorrow, he is headed to russia. he to see how he thinks with the nord stream 2 gas pipeline and how oil prices have surged. overnight, they surged 10% as part of renewed tensions. we get word from ecb president christine lagarde, addressing the e.u. parliament. what will she say about the rising yields because of the concern over ukraine and russia? there is the sense they could talk about raising interest rates by the end of this year, moving away from negative rate policy for the first time going back to 2016. 11:30 am, that is a routine meeting -- routine -- of the board of governors of the federal reserve. it is interesting, given how much concern there is, about some sort of destabilizing action by the federal reserve. mary daly, essay for fed president, said abrupt and

aggressive action can actually have a the stabilizing effect on the growth and priced stability we are trying to achieve. so what i favor is moving in march and taking the next steps in a gradual way. that actually gave comfort to markets. does it have a lasting effect or will it be trigger happiness depending on who talks? you see the.2 yield curve -- 2 0 10's yield curve. jonathan: have you seen how much fed speak -- lisa: well who do you listen to? each person has an incredible effect on markets. you saw markets swing with mary daly speaking. how much are we depending on wranglers -- light language that does not make a difference given that jay powell holds most of the keys? jonathan: i think chair powell needs to put in a speech somewhere in the next couple of

weeks, get a hold of the narrative and talk about what they will do. tom: i strongly agree with that. we have seen that many times before where the big guys have to come out and reset the landscape as they stiger -- stagger to march 16. like inflation last week, when lisa was gone, retail sales this week are a big deal. jonathan: joining us now is david kelly, chief global strategist at jpmorgan. this quote that -- the polar vortex. do you agree? david: not if it is just energy prices. there is a risk, of course, if we get all out war in ukraine. we do not know how far that goes in the long-term implications could be significant. but if it is just tensions

higher, oil prices, it is not enough. there is a lot of momentum as we come out of the pandemic. there's a lot of pent up demand. i think the world can handle oil at $90 or $100. if a war comes with that, that is a different matter. tom: if we assume buoyant nominal gdp, whatever the makeup is of real gdp and the inflation dynamic as well, how do we fare? david: it helps corporate profits. it is kind of what it is. there is talk about the fed being more aggressive, but that will have an impact later this year. right now, the economy -- it will be slow in q1. those are low numbers for q1 gdp. then it will bloom in q2 inflation is obviously high in q1, but --

that is what we have got the fed needs to take it easy in normalizing policy and do not think they can actually fix all of this at once do you think the message from the yield curve is basically saying it is an important and instructive pool right now for a while you think the fed should not move as aggressively as people are pricing in because i think the yield curve is telling us the fed will overreact and then pull back here that is exactly what the fed should not do. what the fed should do is the patient, be gradual. 25 basis points per meeting the next four meetings, get going on the balance sheet over the summer. but keep at it. don't get spooked. but the yield curve, they go they need to be aggressive. jonathan: this idea of engineering a soft landing, how wide-open is that window to do so? david: it is bumpy anyways.

it is kind of like a plane coming in with the wings flapping all over the place. you are wondering should you have the option to go around and try it again? it is bumpy. the very first quarter, there was blooming inflation, but there was not a lot we could do about it. a lot of it has to do with the waves of distortion caused by the pandemic itself. you just have to play it out. could we achieve a soft landing? yeah. the economy does seem to have a natural a continent -- tendency to put out 2% growth each year. a lot of years look like that. i think we can get back to that. but it is looking bumpy and challenging right now. jonathan: david kelly, thank you. difficult time in this market. i will just share with you what is on my screen right now. it is european banks, and it is a sea of red. socgen down six points, bnp down more than 5%.

think about where we have come from. this index was up more than 40% through friday off the back of this conversation with higher interest rates, higher bund yields in europe. tom: you are right to make it a regional story. the regional tone of what we see with russia and ukraine and, frankly, the rest of continental europe, is that regionalism. can i state that what lagarde stunned us with has been totally walked back? jonathan: pushed back. i would not say she walked back what she talked about last week, but she has pushed back against how aggressively the market priced off what she was talking about. it is a bit of a subtle difference. if you think about sequencing, the first hit -- rate hike from this ecb is only likely to come at the very back end of this year. the market was pulling it all the way into summer. tom: i am looking at euros

swiss, one barometer of the tensions. the 2's-10's spread really caught my eye. under 40 basis points gets my attention. jonathan: classic risk aversion. you look at balloons coming in, the yen is stronger, european equities, the banks are down and down hard. lisa: i think there are two different stories between europe and the u.s. in the u.s., it is classic risk aversion. in europe, it also is, yet the spread continues to remain at the highest levels going back more than a year. jonathan: coming up on this bond market, subadra rabaa subadra rajappa of socgen. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the abbasid a bridge that links

the u.s. and canada has reopened after a five-day protest against vaccine mandates stopped traffic. police cleared emma schrader's before removing barriers at the site. pakistan is warning afghanistan could descend into chaos. prime minister imran con said in an interview that -- he pointed at the u.s. refusal to --the taliban. and -- nearly 57% supported the initiative but it lacks behind most wealthy nations and restricting tobacco, blamed by lobbying on some of the biggest tobacco companies that are headquartered there. and japan's as more work needs to be done to boost the

venture-capital sector. he tells bloomberg the lack of willing risktakers means promising companies still need to look abroad for capital, despite prime minister for sheer kimye -- despite the prime minister making that his focus. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> the way they have built up their forces, maneuver them in place, makes it a distinct possibility they will be major military action soon. jonathan: the message from jake sullivan, the u.s. national security advisor. equity market down 37, down 0.8% . yields come in at a single basis point, 192.50. the ftse stronger and so is the japanese yen. crude, 93.29. tom: we do not talk enough about dollar-ruble. there are different ways to look at ruble. my mark on two standard deviations is not out on record

weakness, but 79.4 zero is important. right now, 77.06. jonathan: what i expected to see , that is the playbook. tom: right now, as we move forward and washington moves forward into an importantly, and rewarding -- annmarie hordern joins us. i think, over the weekend, what i heard is a nascent containment by president biden. this goes back to george canning, his arch article of 1947 -- when in doubt, contain. is it your reporting in washington we are setting up a policy of containment of mr. putin's desires? annmarie: honestly, nothing really changed over the weekend. that phone call between president biden and president putin basically said with sides still have the rhetoric they have been for the past few weeks, and they have not moved an inch closer to an offramp for

president putin or a diplomatic ending to this, so the only takeaway i've from the washington briefing on the moscow briefing, following that form call, is both president biden and president putin believe their team should remain in contact, but the rhetoric from both sides is the same, setting up or a challenging week. olaf scholz will try his hand in kyiv and moscow, but it comes as the united states says russia could launch an invasion before the end of the olympics. we should note that russia continues to maintain they have no intentions to do so. tom: for our american listeners and viewers -- and i mean this in a diplomatic sense -- are the russians dividing and conquering, where they talk separately to continental europe and separately to the united states? annmarie: that is part of it. president putin does not want a heavy-handed and european policy.

he has said that and shown that for years. what he is doing is it is easier for him to meet these leaders one-on-one and that any concessions he can out of them, particularly the ones out of europe, whose businesses are integrated with the russian economy. that is what he is trying to do. we should note that since president clinton and biden spoke december journey -- december 30th, this whole month of january, the u.s. has worked tirelessly, dispatching people to europe and vice versa to make sure they can confront russia on a unified front. lisa: when it comes to informational strategy, because the war has been on that front, from both sides, what do we make of the fact that the u.s. is releasing information almost as soon as they get it by potential mendel terry -- military action?

annmarie: the new york times really had a weekend piece that detailed all of this step-by-step. part of that was what united states is doing on the diplomatic front with their engagement with european leaders. what they want to make sure they do is what they did not do in 2014. in 2014, they did not release the intel they had regarding a potential annexation and invasion of crimea, so they have changed paths, potentially learn from what they would call a mistake of 2014, and they are trying to get the information out now. when jake sullivan was asked that there have been instances in the past, a la iraq war, that the u.s. had put information out, he said the information i am giving a from this podium prior to 2003 is we are trying to avert a war, not trying to put intel out there so we can go into a war. lisa: so proactively trying to get ahead of a weapons of mass

destruction or an accusation of that type of activity. what could the strategic benefit before the united states, giving out this information now, in terms of deterring putin from going through the invasion? annmarie: many would say it would change his calculus at the kremlin. if you have all this information at a global scale, and russia has come in the past, used false reports -- potentially, they would do that again. we had to say russia, at this moment, still says they have no plans to invade terry but if they were to, now that this is out in the open, pollutants credibility will be heard on the international stage and globally. but also, this divides his calculus on whether or not he should potentially go in or not. they are really mapping this out across the board, so no one can come if he was to invade, say we did not warn you. politically from the american standpoint, it is smart. if putin were to invade, they

could say this is what we have been warning for weeks, we told american citizens to get out, told european allies this was coming. if he does not, they will take it as a victory that they deterred him from invading ukraine. jonathan: almost exclusively come this story has been covered from the american, european, or russian stance. there is not as much coverage from the ukrainian stance. there was -- about the ukrainian ambassador to the you care about maybe leaning away from joining nato. annmarie: when i heard that, i was shocked. saying that they may lean back from -- she was complaining of loud the lindo wing from the midst -- minsk -- the ukrainians have walked back

a number of times. clearly, that ambassador got a bit over. jonathan: an important week ahead. tom: what we have to focus on is what to watch for. as the new german leadership go to moscow, entrenched in it is the history and emotion of that. i would suggest the emotion is still there, the ties between germany and berlin and moscow. it is just steeped in history. jonathan: let's go all the way back to that line from baker in the early 1990's and how much we argue over that line. tom: there was a wonderful comment and read this weekend. it was a henry kissinger quote -- if i could -- if i have to call europe, who do i call?

brussels? may be there prime minister of the unit kingdom? jonathan: futures down.8 on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, down a little more than 1%. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪

jonathan: you can pick your poison this morning -- geopolitical risk, inflation. on the nasdaq 100, down a little more than one percentage point. goldman sachs going down from 5100 year end to 4900. david kelly pointing out this is about valuations and when they look -- put out the forecast, there were only looking at two hikes. now they are looking at seven. the u.s., the spread between 2's and 10's in the 30's. first week of this year, january 7, just short of 90 basis points paid we have cut it in half and some. the yield curve is flatter. in germany, yields back in.

european banks underperform in a big way. capturing that for me, the risk aversion for you -- the frank and the swiss franc, that comes in about 0.5%. tom: a 104 is a 104, 105 is weaker swiss -- the trend going back to thanksgiving is the swiss franc to a 1.04. that's the glide path that screams tension. jonathan: negative on the day, 94.23 brent. tom: i think some of the work over the weekend is extraordinary, especially by our julian lee in london. he nailed the reset, demand appears to be greater than the pros are calculating, which gives a knowledge up in price.

-- a nudge up in price. us, chief economist at stifel. let's get back to the recalculation i am sure you did over guacamole last night on the couch. that is the terminal rate of inflation, whether they near rate outside one year or a rate further out. what is the trend we are heading towards on inflation? lindsey: right now, it seems as if inflation has nowhere to go but up. but pent-up demand is satisfied. as we start to see some of the supply chain disruptions move and balance restored, we would expect to see the second derivative decline or a lower pace of provident price increase at an by the second half of the year, giving us a nice downward trajectory heading into 2023 p this is what the fed is banking

on. the fed is convinced inflation is at or near peak level. tom: do you agree with this? the arch restore -- research notes this weekend, what is the path we are going towards? lindsey: we could easily see 4.5% by the end of the year and a continued downward trajectory for 2020 three. when we put that in perspective with the fed target of 2%, the take away is we are excited to be well above those target levels for some time. for the market, it is the trajectory of inflation that will set the tone for the expectation of a change in monetary policy over the next 12 to 24 months. lisa: how do you push back against the assertion inflation is becoming more entrenched? you can see this in the fact cpi came in that much hotter than expectations. lindsey: there are two types of

inflation, the demand side and then the supply side. on the supply side, production costs moved up quickly because of these distortions and imbalances. this is what the fed will focus on. we expect that to ease in the medium-term as islands is restored across the global marketplace. we are already starting to feel a little bit of price pictures ease, looking at ppi, with this week's report excited to ease further. on the other side, you have demand pressures, and that is where the concern of the wage price spiral is setting in. that will the a component more difficult for the fed to control going forward, if we see this more entrenched as prices rise across nearly every sector of the economy. lisa: do you see a wage price spiral, given that wages are still deeply negative? lindsey: there are certainly

still negative when we talk about that 5% to 6% wage increase. it is less impressive against the backdrop of 7% inflation. but we are still seeing the cycle set in, higher prices leading to higher wages leading to higher prices. the wage price cycle, although still inefficient for workers, has set in, at least over the previous six month period. tom: let's look forward to retail sales. we have a few distractions, but the key distraction of the week is this measurement of the american consumer. is it math worth focusing on? lindsey: absolutely. it tells us the health of the consumer, the comfortability of the consumer to move back into the marketplace. if you look back to the beginning of the fourth quarter, we had this buy now mentality, the fear that inflation would continue to rise, so we needed to buy what needed today because tomorrow it would cost more, if

it was available at all. what we saw was a lot of these metrics pulling forward traditional end of the year holiday spending. these measures, this momentum is likely to wane as we look for that in the first quarter. we already saw that weakness in december sales. if we see this weakness carryforward, i think this reinforces the notion that pent up demand is being satisfied. savings from the pandemic is already being drawn down. this will lead to a much more modest pace of growth for the longer run in the domestic economy. tom: what is your real inflation call for this year that gets you to nominal gdp? real gdp, inflation to the end of the year, and the total nominal gdp statistics? lindsey: real gdp slows to a range of 2% to 3%. you factor on a 4% inflation

figure at the end of the. lisa: lindsey piegza, one thing a lot of people are talking about is how oil prices might change the equation dramatically and could illuminate quite a bit from gdp. how do you factor that in? what is the choque .4 oil prices? lindsey: the fastest way to derail the american consumer is raising gas prices, sustained, elevated gas prices. we are already seeing that with double-digit gains across the country with some of the highest prices felt on the west coast. when we look at the health of the consumer and talk about businesses being able to pass on these cost increases, the consumers already absorbing sizable price increases in these key categories, energy and groceries. businesses will have an increasingly difficult time passing on further price increases if the household balance sheets, majority of the

household balance sheets, are being allocated to those categories. lisa: do you have a chokepoint level? some said $117 a barrel, some say $150 a barrel because of inflation. lindsey: i think the chokepoint would be a lot lower, between $90 to $100. we are rapidly approaching or even teetering into that category already. lisa: to follow up, this idea of $90 to $100 a barrel, we are there. are you saying, if oil supply -- if oil prices are sustained where they are, the u.s. will not be able to avoid some sort of downturn? lindsey: it is clear that as the economy continues to recalibrate to a normal level, we are set to slow from that 4.5 percent range from the second half of last year. i expect gdp to remain positive but slow to arrange nearer to 2% or 3%, which is very much in line with pre-pandemic worth. we tend to romanticize where we

work prior to the crisis, but ruth was already slowing from 3% in 2018 down to 2% in 2019. with elevated inflation and rapidly rising energy costs, i think it is a leader trajectory back to the pre-pandemic with rate of near 2% to 3% gdp. jonathan: lindsey piegza of stifel. those questions were so important. if you get another leg higher on energy but this time it is driven on supply shop because of something like russia, that rock and a hard place the fed is stuck between, it gets a whole lot harder. what on earth you do if that is the case? lisa: especially when you get political pressures from the likes of joe manchin, saying that the fed needs to get more aggressive. there is a big divide over whether this is disinflationary or inflationary. it is often disinflationary,

because people can buy less with their paychecks. if that persists, where -- jonathan: the biggest key off of high prices is growth that hurts. tom: nickel up -- they know the price of a gallon is a lot higher. this goes back to joe forward and inflation now. there will be a struggle in washington as this trend continues. jonathan: there is a struggle in this equity market. down three quarters on the s&p. that is the picture in the u.s. bear in mind we had a late correction friday, so europe kind of sat that one out. the cac 40 in paris down 3.5%. the equity benchmark in frankfurt, germany -- tom: it is a strong observation.

as the world turns on the markets catch up, they slow down, they get behind. i would say you are dead on, the vix rounded up to 31. jonathan: lost in this conversation as well, we are just backing away from covid restrictions kid state after state -- we are backing away from covid restrictions. we will discuss with dr. joshua sharfstein. yields coming in with a couple of basis points of 1.9198. from new york, this is bloomberg . ritika: with the third worst -- first word news, i am ritika gupta. president biden told the ukrainian leader that the u.s. and its allies would act swiftly

and decisively if russia were to invade, echoing comments he made on a saturday call with russia's vladimir putin. the u.s. as an invasion may be imminent while russia has repeatedly said it has no plans to invade. german chancellor olaf scholz is said to meet with putin tomorrow. hong kong's daily virus cases topped 2000 for the first time ever with the worsening outbreak threatening the city's covid zero push. cases have exceeded capacity at hong kong's hospital's peer hong kong officials asked for beijing support, including help with test kit supplies. saudi arabia transferred and $80 billion stake in aramco to the kingdom southern wealth fund. the deal which transfers an asset from one pocket of the government to another is the latest move taken to bolster the fund's assets. and -- felt the most in two

decades after the company said it was investigating allegations by internal whistleblowers that staff manipulated accounts to meet financial targets. this was chemical company says it may need -- the los angeles rams beat the cincinnati bengals to win the super bowl. it gives the rams their second ever super bowl title. the rams scored a touchdown with less than two minutes left in the game to take the lead. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the pandemic is slowly falling behind us.

we will certainly continue protecting people with regular vaccinations. but for people not vulnerable -- jonathan: much of the world moving on. that was astrazeneca has ceo. equity markets down three quarters of 1% on the s&p. the nasdaq 100 down one full percentage point. europe struggling with attentions over ukraine. in the fx market, euro-dollar negative 0.4%. some strength where you expect strength to be. tom: the tension is there. you have to look at the 2's/10's spread. it is sort of like the dow -- jonathan: i would not compare that to the dow at all. i think we should be watching it, hence why would not compare it to the doubt.

a break of 40. we were at 90 the first week of this year. tom: and a 39 handle as well. i love getting jonathan going -- lisa: i was just going to say i couldn't believe he let himself get triggered by that, it was so obvious. jonathan: i just want to get the tone of the show right. tom: the doubt down 238 points as well. joshua sharfstein with us, vice dean of johns hopkins bloomberg school of health. it is a better america, when we look at the statistic of this pandemic, yet there was work from the office and a meeting mr. micron had with mr. putin, at a table 20 feet apart because mr. micron would not take a test etc., etc.. how close are we to work from an office, or will we be 20 feet apart forever? dr. sharfstein: i think we can

see the omicron wave is starting to subside. it is not gone. the number of hospitalizations is still very high, the number of cases still very high, but it is going down quickly. in a few weeks, hopefully, we will be in a much better place. as cases and hospitalizations go down, we will be able to do more and more. at the same time, we should be pressing forward, still trying to find the people who are unvaccinated, supporting them with boosters and all the rest. there is still a lot of work to do, by the year on the right road. i mean, i am teaching in person this term. tom: good. there was an article on the quality of older people and deaths. i'm surprised how the booster is so important. reaffirm, with all this good news, the efficacy, the importance of the booster shot. dr. sharfstein: absolutely. the evidence is very strong for cases as well as for hospitalizations, particularly for older people.

boosters really help. if people are on the fence about it, do they need it, given the virus that is out there, i would very much encourage them to make those plans today. lisa: a lot of people are sick of hearing about covid. they want this to be over. frankly, they are acting like it. micron and putin may have been at a table 20 feet away, but people in bars are not. how much are we heading towards a 1918 flu pandemic fourth wave that nobody talks about, where people get sick and die but no one wants to hear about it because people have moved on? dr. sharfstein: i think it is that cartoon of people in a crowded restaurant saying "i can't believe we cannot get back to our lives yet." people are doing the same things as they were before and completing the other people are doing stuff extra careful for themselves. i hope we can come to a bit more of a consensus.

i realize it is hard, that we should be watching that wave come down and scaling up our activities on the other side and not just throwing caution to the wind. if you go back to the beginning of this pandemic, every time the curve goes down, people go like i am so glad it is over. and how many times do we have to learn this lesson? we will and we are doing a lot more than we have before, we just have to to be thoughtful about it. lisa: people point to the ratio of hospitalizations and deaths to the number of cases, and that ratio has declined. if you look at the number of actual deaths, it has declined dramatically versus the people who actually contract the virus. at warden -- at what point is this a determining issue, that this is like the flu versus something that has a much greater mortality rate? dr. sharfstein: it is probably around the time that mortality gets to that point, but we are

still at 2400 deaths a day. it is not today, but it is not unimaginable. what we are seeing is countries highly vaccinated are able to withstand a omicron wave without nearly as many deaths as we have had. we are building between the vaccines and infections -- we are building, between the vaccines and infections, a lot of immunity. we just have the way. i think we will just prolong this if we are not able to find some ability to have a reasonable approach to the virus for the next few weeks, if not months. jonathan: it has been almost the exclusive focus of the health care industry for the last two years. there are other issues becoming a bigger concern, particularly for young children with speech development delayed. you can think of the

psychological issues as well. how big is hangover -- the hangover going to be for you and others in the industry for the next several years? dr. sharfstein: i agree there will be an enormous shadow cast by the pandemic. from children's perspective, many kids have fallen behind on immunizations. it will be an enormous catch up period, and that is what i think it is very important for this country to invest in kids. they have sacrificed, in many cases, for the greater good, the good of adults who are much more vulnerable to serious illness. we owe them a lot. i would like to see that child tax credit extended, for example. jonathan: dr. joshua sharfstein of the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health. balance is what a lot of people are looking for. lisa: you are speaking to a lot of people who also have

children, yours truly, and i can say personally that you see the ramifications of this. at the same time, if you look at polls, most people do not want kids in schools to which masks just yet, so how do you create that balance in order to protect their health while also allowing the same degree of items that we enjoyed when we were kids? jonathan: country after country, europe and elsewhere, are dropping restrictions quickly. tom: it is hugely cultural. america is a larger -- frankly rush as well, 6000 miles east to west -- it is region to region, culture to culture. we have seen that in spades. i like the idea that you said that this extends out in many different ways. as lisa mentioned on inflation, what we are not talking about yet is the dispersion of inflation impact. it is very different. jonathan: your equity market down 0.8%.

tom has a lot of markers on your bond market. curve flatter. lisa: like the dow. jonathan: they relationship between the dow and the equity market. subadra rajappa of socgen joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ rg. ♪

>> the real question for the fed is if they want to surprise any dovish direction. >> their patients will be rewarded if they do not get aggressive early in the cycle. >> i would like them to just get on with it. >> they have been going 85 miles per hour in the left-hand lane, and they need to catch up and catch up quickly. >> we think the fed comes into this year like a hawk and leaves like a fed -- like a dove. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: geopolitics gripping this market. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. down.8 in the s&p. tom: equities, bonds, currencies , most information on the bond market, and i am looking at the