on a policy risk. >> it's been higher and broadening out as we sit here. >> i do thinking there is a peak of this inflation story that will have to be squeezed out by the fed. >> they got a little too far behind the curve and trying to aggressively get in front of the curve. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, john farrow and lisa. jon: waking up for our audience worldwide. good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance live alongside tom and lisa. we're waking up to disputed claims from the russia and u.s. tom: things have changed and maybe we're not back to the bloom from a few days ago but there's a tension out there. the race of gold, 1900 an ounce and gold is one indicator of the continental european tensions.

jon: the u.s. disputing claims the russians are pulling back and the russians disputing the u.s. claims of a buildup. i don't know what the market wants to do, down .6%. tom: the ruble walk weakened by the terse statement. secretary blinken made very clear that he's looking at action phrases. there were two action phrases i could discover in that statement and it's real simple. all it comes down to is he's got a few action points and they have to respond. there and there was a headline an hour ago from lavrov saying they'll respond. jon: they are gripped by headlines. lisa: you don't have the same promise of the fed put behind it and is a game changer. the reason we're seeing volatility is the fed is worried about inflation and they're going to react to inflation. they're not going to react as a

fed put if there are disruptions that affect markets the same way they used to. jon: what did you make of the turn around, down .9% and finished positive. lisa: the fed meeting minutes said nothing we did not know. they were interpreted as doveish because they did not say we're going to raise by 50 basis points and roll out the balance sheet by $2 trillion and doveish and people bringing down their expectation below 50% for the first time since the c.p.i. print. you make sense of it. i don't know what people are gleaning from this. jon: bob michaels said at jp morgan, a lot of catching up to do and starts with a 50 basis point move in march and if they don't do that, bob says the market will lose confidence in the fed and too far behind the curve. tom: it comes down to credibility, jon and to your point if they'd done an emergency 25 it gives them a more supple choice set at the march meeting. those days are gone and we're

out to the march meeting, what's the choice from there to the next meeting and they're beginning to limit their choices if they're married to greenspan's phrase measured. jon: let's whip through price action, .1% on the nasdaq, .7%, a bit into the havens yield to lower by 2-3 basis points and north of 2.0 and in the f.x. market the euro-dollar is unchanged. and this one stands out, lisa, curious, crude down 2.01%. lisa: you would think with the disruption heating up and contributing to the risk off environment, oil should be bid up, explain that as you get a resurgence in the reopening of economies around the world. for the data we're looking at today briefly in an hour we'll get wal-mart earnings and that will be interesting. 8:30 arm -- the first read for the day.

u.s. initial jobless claims and looking at continuous claims which are expected to trend downward again. are we at full employment. you have the same number of continuing claims, people receiving jobless benefits before the pandemic. at what point can we say he we are there and this is one of the most disputed aspects among fed officials and today we'll hear from a slew of bank executives at the credit suisse forum. the bankers speak at 8:00 a.m. respectively and i want to hear how much people are decompleting their savings. is there a gucci, nestle divide. gucci reported earnings beating expectations showing they can pass large margins and nestle is struggling. is it a wealth gap and they talk about the growth and dynamism in credit as well as underlying performance. today a slew of central banks i know you'll be glued to this, phillip lane at 9:00 a.m. in st.

louis and fed president jim willard at 11:00 a.m. and cleveland fed president loretta speaking at 5:00 p.m. and speaks to the volatility. they're all going to say something different and people will interpret it differently take different cues. volatility is rise to the highest level going back to march of 2020 in the treasury market and no wonder why. what's your compass when people say the fed is behind the curve but at the same time you have all these geopolitical factors and risks. jon: gucci is clearly a staple in the keene household? tom: they've gone so young and hip. what's interesting about gucci and it goes to the recovery of the pacific rim, what i see in most of luxury is a complete pivot to what china wants and what the pacific rim wants. it's like gucci has walked away from animals like me. jon: you're not happy with the designs at gucci? tom: i walk in and there's

nothing there for me. lisa: you knew what you were getting into, jon, this is on you. tom: selena has gone to a more simple approach. jon: you want to talk about selena later? jon: waking up and trying to process and digest various headlines. how do you think all of this influences a particular central bank decision that takes place on march 16? >> from the fed's perspective, i don't think it will affect it at all. certainly a war is the altering event, particularly if it's a significant one but with the tensions that have been around, i think the fed has made it clear that they're playing catch-up and march is a given and we debate whether it's 25 or 50 and whether may and june are equally live at those levels. tom: do you believe, marvin, the corporations domestically, and frankly globally, can adapt to what they've been given?

marvin: yeah, yeah, i do. they have. from a financial engineering perspective, they've been very quick to embrace and ultimately reshape their balance sheets in a way that buys them flexibility and these are for profit organizations that have been nimble to change it to rapidly changing conditions both from a global perspective as well as from a mobility perspective and you've seen they've been able to navigate it so i do believe that's one of the strengths in the equity markets. lisa: people have been baking this in for a while even when it wasn't the case and you wonder how much it's gotten ahead of things especially as you see the biggest inflows to equity funds versus bond funds going back to 2013. can that continue especially when you see the likes of roadblocks and some of these other pandemic era stocks get pummeled and returned to prepandemic normalcy?

marvin: it's this often described aspect of asset management and equity management, that you're looking for the winners and it's stock pickers market and i would argue that's always the market and what professionals get ultimately paid for. i mean, we're seeing demand for treasuries, the fact that we've repriced as much as we have and still have a 2% tenure and to a degree flattening the curve shows there's a fixed income component associated with that. i do thinking equity markets still have a bit of a catbird seat and might not be u.s. growth stock the way it had been the last 2-5 years and there's potential diversification looking for value outside particularly geographically but equities still do have a catbird seat in this discussion. lisa: are you advising people to buy longer dated bonds in the u.s.? marvin: i do like treasuries in

here. we see from a geopolitical perspective just how demand for that security is from a hedging perspective as well as our longer term views that we're not going to see yields get back to the prepandemic unusual rate levels. i think we're dealing with a different type of environment that way. jon: thank for you catching up with us, marvin loh of state street. waking up to several disputed claims, one from the united states disputing claims of a russian troop pullback and the other from russia disputing claims from the u.s. of a troop buildup and came from sergey lavrov, putting it on twitter moments ago. new from russia the foreign minister said they will respond to u.s. security proposals today and make it public. the kremlin says u.s. claims new troops near the ukraine unfounded and goes on to say it takes time for troops to return to base after drills. you see where the dispute is now and it's been the story the last

couple days. tom: they're looking at the tactical minutia and the u.s. has windows to see how the troops are moving. what i found stunning was blinken's statement where there was so little wiggle room in the language, the action phrases were to be clear by the secretary of state and at the bottom of the short statement, a swift and firm response. what's a swift and firm response today from the lavrov team? jon: and the extra elements overnight. i want to be careful with the developments overnight and accurate with this statement. russian bank separatists in eastern ukraine claims the ukrainian forces violated the cease-fire in five places overnight. the organization for security and cooperation in europe that monitor things like this, could not immediately verify any of this and took it one step further to note that things like this haven't exactly been irregular the last few years

since the cease-fire was put in place. there are some of the disputes and claims overnight coming into this morning with the future down .6% on the s&p. lisa: a lack of clarity here but one thing remains clear, there's a new front with respect to the western russia relationship and what nato keeps sort of hammering home that this is the new normal and i think that that is what a lot of officials, especially as nato foreign ministers meet right now, they're trying to get their hands around how do you deal with that? jon: jitters out there at the moment. down .5%. the price equity in europe is contained and futures on the massback down and yields on the three basis points and 10 year at 1%. on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. >> keeping up today with news around the world with the first word, the u.s. says russia is adding up to 7,000 troops to

150,000 at best are already near ukraine's borders and the kremlin scald that fake. european leaders will discuss the crisis today. europe looks to be leaving the pandemic behind and germany is the latest in the region to unwind restrictions that disrupted life for two years. schultz announced most of the covid curves will be rolled back by august 20 and russia is we employing the similar steps. and there is a testing blitz planned for the entire city. bloomberg learned chinese medical experts have probably been brought in to help. the push will begin in early march. more details coming out about that u.s. investigation into how morgan stanley executives handled block trades. bloomberg authorities are examining recordings of phone calls between the bank and outside fund managers. the recordings are conversations

involving one of morgan family's top equities executives in block trades and he's not been accused of wrongdoing. and airbus is putting the worst of the pandemic behind it. the company posted record net income last year and had plans to reinstate a dividend, a year end delivery push helped ever reclaim the crown of the biggest plane matter of the year. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> prepare fed russia is actually engage in diplomacy and would strengthen everyone's security in europe and also prepare fed they choose aggression against ukraine. the choice is president putins. we haven't seen a pull back and if we see one we'll welcome if and plopped -- and prepared for diplomacy. jon: futures pullback disputing claims from the russia and united states. down .5%. and basis points still north at 2% and crude a little softer, lighter, lower, negative 2% to 9162.

tom: brent crude 91.62. item a compendium of data on the screen as we wait for numbers from mr. lavrov's statement out of russia. with an update, mr. blinken seems to have come into his own. tell us about it it. mr. the president is staying engaged to a certain degree but blinken has taken a role. i don't know he's taken a different role. the u.s. line has been pretty consistent that they're ready for whatever russia does and don't see a pullback from

russian troops and it's at least been a consistent message and nothing they've gotten out way ahead of but a consistent message you're seeing from the secretary of state blinken. tom: in your reporting and it's a delicate question and can you run around it if you want, is it different than the afghanistan ballet in the handlers have said to the president let the pros do this or the president is essentially giving out to blinken a lot more responsibility and development of diplomacy? >> i think it is an issue that lends itself to that. i don't know it's necessarily indicative of a major change in decisionmaking from the administration, for one in afghanistan, you had the president campaigning before he was president on a pullout from afghanistan. we've heard president biden say he understood that could get messy. that's not necessarily a decision to wave away any advisers but that was something

that came from the top whereas this has been a real wait and see game with russia that allows the normal diplomatic efforts to go through. you can delegate to some extent and allow blinken to make the statements he's making. there wasn't some major campaign promise that got ahead of everything from biden saying here is exactly how i'm going to handle a threat from russia. so i think it's a situation that lends itself to that degree of delegation more so than afghanistan did. lisa: jack, you followed congress for decades, for years and really people are looking -- i see jon is looking at me maybe not decades but years but going forward, we're talking ukraine and russia, we're not talking about a domestic agenda, when you look at economists they're factoring if a trillion dollar fiscal drag and not talking infrastructure spending even as president biden heads down to

ohio to talk about that. how much oxygen does it suck out of the room to getting some of that pushed forward? jack: one, it does make it difficult to send the message. two, i think it does distract from some of the agenda. it's fascinating to see the president yesterday on the phons

clearly. lisa: we haven't heard about the gas tax holiday, it sprug up and quickly died. does it have legs? jack: that's a tough one. there's been enough pushback that seems to be one of those ideas that's been floated but we haven't heard that much follow-up on the hilllfollow-upo indicate it's moving forward right now. jon: thanks as always, jack jack fitzpatrick of bloomberg government in d.c. you're not impressed with this prospect of a tax holiday, are you? holiday, are y you don't think itou? moves the dollar enough, it's something. lisa: it's 18 cents, what8 cents it do long term, does it bring the price down enough to increase disposable spending? i want to pull a tom keene and don't want to weigh don in on this. people't want to are looking foy opinion on this and i don't necessarily see -- frankly

there's been very little support for this and you don't hear how it makes economic sense or how it makes sense from policy either. what it does emphasize is the desire to look like there is some control and looks like they're taking some action fromm this. jon: straight from the tom keene playbook. lisa: learning from the best.fr. tom: the history of this is two very different groups come together whether you want to admit it or not and say no. one of course is the west, the oilmakers, you know, people that feel that it's stability, etc.,i we need thety, etc tax. and the other is the environmental crew. they're on other sides on othere debatedes but come together and take out the middle. jon: we have two key stories, the foreign policy and how it spills over into domestic policy here in america and wewe have te federal reserve and how these geopolitical issues may shape the fed in coming months.. tom: i coming months. agree, iar

talking this morning, i don't read the minutes, i find them useless but you read them. and he said they contain four references to political tensions and and one russia, ukraine tensions and that's a first. what's a first here is the excuse as lisa mentioned maybe to delay the march of 7 increasing. jon: i think the minutes are a waste of time. here's the quote of geopolitics on page 17, the possibility of geopolitical turmoil that could cause increase inical turmoil ty prices or exacerbate global supply sources. taking note, underring what it means for monetary policy is another, the latter piece ofanoa that is obviously thetter piecef important. if we go a spike higher in energyr in energy prices i see how it might shape the e.c.b. given the economic spillovers but the ec for the u.s.onomic spillovers but and te the decision is less obvious. tom: i'm not playing the game tom: i'm not playing th data, j, and right now the most amazing

thing of the week is bullard monitoring 3% to 5% real g.d.p. jon: you're playing the game. lisa: every day. jon: coming up later the fed speak. linda: by definition this is the game.is the game. tom: game?

jon: breaking news, lisa has a problem with a price action. what's new? what is new? the nasdaq down .7% on the russell down .75%. down .9% as the fed comes out. here's something new, c.p.i., b.p.i. and retail sales and fed speaking in between, isn't that the information we should be moving on? lisa: exactly. all that information is being discounted with respect to the motion of a 50 basis point rate hike and the meeting didn't happen it because it was held last month. jon: march 16, lisa is losing it. let's keep things on the rail for her. the bond market, yield come in

and we back away. the dispute you're waking town this morning, it's difficult to get your hand around, i know, the u.s. disappointing flames of a russian pullback and russians disputing claims of a buildup. headline after headline and yields come in down three basis points and north of 2% on 10s and yields back on the 160 we based on two's and sub 150 down to 1.4847. something to keep an eye on. i know you're following it closely t.k., euro on one hand and graduate the other and crude backs away to 91.39. and you see that swissy strength in a mix but not in a massive way and going lower. tom: folks seeing subtle moves and yesterday a strong swiss and today i'm watching gold more than anything, 1880 .70. for those waking up, bloomberg

radio and television, across the nation at 4:35 this morning mr. lavrov representing mr. putin said there will be a response today by the russians and we'll have to see what that is. right now eagerly anticipated charles canter joins us, senior portfolio manager, active investors newman short and long. i want to talk about your view of quality of cash flows of corporate america in the next year given the soup, the uncertainty, the degrees of freedom you have day to day within a portfolio, what's the quality of cash flow? charles: i think it depends where you look. if you look at businesses growing well with decent margins, the cash flows are excellent and valuations are reasonable. if you look at businesses growing exceptionally fast with low margins, there's no cash flow there at all. those businesses have been under

tremendous price action pressure and they're down over 50% from the peak. and they're rich from a valuation perspective relative to countries growing a little slower but much more cash flow. our focus is on businesses with innovation and technology, with key businesses that can take pricing and many of the businesses that enabled kind of the lives we live through covid and continue to live today. tom: let's go to c.f.a. wall street and global wall street, mr. kantor and discern how you determine profit-making technology. where do you exactly do that on the income statement? charles: i think you start with gross margin and make sure there's enough gross margin there after you invest in growing in your people and product design and your marketing, you end up with these operating margins and some of the time you look at key performance indicators that

would focus on how much does it cost to acquire a company, how long do the customers stay, what is their pickup in terms of ordering more product the longer they stay in your own ecosystem? but within the environment we're in, it's going to be a lot around which businesses out there can actually get price. there will be no doubt everyone is trying to take price but there are going to be meaningful winners and losers and as value propositions collapse or get narrow across the consumer sector, if you just take in price and not bringing innovation or not bringing brand or sending price like amazon and you don't have scale to manage what i argue would be potentially temporal supply chain inflation cost, your profit margins are going to be under tremendous pressure.

linda: meaningful winners and losers is striking when you look at the likes of roadblocks which took my attention yesterday and plunged most ever and lost a quarter of the value and peloton similar moves and zoom following down the same trajectory as the most beaten up covid stocks at this point and looking at all this and wondering how easy is it to get ahead of this as a long short manager and make the most testify by getting on the right side of each trade? charles: the three examples you provide are classic examples of businesses that saw a tremendous demand pull forward through covid. and i can't speak to all of those businesses but certainly one of those businesses, they pulled forward five years of demand and misread that as a much larger tetonic shift in the

total addressable market and as such as corporate managers went out and built an ecosystem to support a much larger revenue base than they should have. and i think in this environment, you've seen that a lot, not only are the investors misreading the pull forward demand of covid but corporate management has as well. and those that have done that will face stock price action far boars than -- far worse than 50%. we're trying to work through our companies really on a couple layers. one is do they have pricing power and two, you know, how significant was the covid bomb and to what degree is the covid bump understood. and this is showing up in many of the brands out there that

were passive covid beneficiaries, many which you flashed on the screen. lisa: charles, from your perspective as potentially a short seller of some of these names, how active have you been trying to get ahead of this realization that you brought forward demand that may not materialize in the way people expected. charles: we're in the environment where things are moving at breakneck speeds, not just stocks but the fed and we're exceptionally active on the short side and as a big picture, what we're trying to own for the long term are businesses that look reasonable on a free cash flow basis that have proper margins and are growing at acceptable rates. on the short side, there's just a massive valuation gap between diss growing exceptionally fast with no profit and businesses growing just a little slower with a lot of profit. and you can imagine that the

shorting opportunity and the former is boxed and that's where we've been playing. tom: i've got to stop the show and ask you with immense respect and all the people there about tom's reporting yesterday on short selling abuse. i want to make sure mr. kantor and your company was not mentioned. there's one way to short and another way to short and i had this conversation with jim from the new york historical society i think 10 years ago. charles kantor, how do you short versus the criticisms that supposedly the department of justice is investigating? charles: i think i've been clear that i've stayed away from kind of cherry pick individual companies that may be in the main face short term head wind. it starts with our prospects and our short book is comprised of a bunch of companies that we hope not to be short much longer than

3-6 months. we overlay a fundamental approach to that meaning the decline in the share price is likely temporal but driven by earning expectations that don't seem to be reasonable against the backdrop of the industry or market backdrop. and so for us, it's rapid fire, it's renting, not owning, and we want to be very respectful to our firm's thoughts around being long term investors so we stay quiet on the short side and do our work, hopefully we pick up a few pennies and we move on. jon: hope you pick up more than that, charles. good to see you back in the office. charles kantor of newburger berman. we're waiting for a news conference with the secretary-general taking place in brussels and meant to take place about 20 minutes ago so we're waiting for him still.

tom: waiting for him still and i would say far more he is waiting as is all the leaders, maybe the coalition of the willing and unwilling, however you want to put that, jon, they're waiting for a response from putin-lavrov from the blinken statement yesterday. ruble weaken off the terse blinken statement, don't want to being it was inflammatory or too much but there was a shift with the clarity of the blinken statement. jon: what do you make of the claims and counterclaims, the claims from the united states they're seeing a troop buildup and not a troop pullback and what we're hearing from the russian is they counter that by saying no, we reject your claim we're having any kind of troop buildup, it takes time to pullback. the back and forth here, secretary blinken said the following we haven't seen a pullback, we'd like to see one. if we see one we'd welcome it and we're prepared for diplomacy, we're prepared for aggression, we're prepared either way.

#. tom: i'll go back to 2014 and 2009 and on to the horrific malaysian airline tragedy that we've had and we've seen this forever. the difference now is greg and others have said is we're seeing u.s. intelligence so visibly so daily. jon: the u.s., the u.k., lisa, the nato secretary-general over the last few days very much on the same page. lisa: i keep coming back to this, the idea this is what you can expect going forward, a pat enof more aggression from russia is what he was talking about and how they'll respond might be a harder line, not necessarily taking them on face value. jon: when the news conference begins we'll bring you the headlines as they pour in. futures are down about half of 1%. this thursday morning, this week is racing by. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news around the world with first word, officials at the federal reserve concluded they

would start raising interest rates soon. they also were specific with inflation that would justify a faster pace of tightening and comes minutes from january policymaker's meeting and traders maintained their bets the fed will raise rates six times this year. in the u.s. the c.d.c. said it wants to give people a break from wearing masks. the agency is reviewing its mask guidance and is shifting its focus to covid hospitalizations as a key measure of how severe the outbreak is. the current policy is it people live in an area of high transmission to the virus, they should wear masks in indoor public places. the activist kyle ikon will go over war with mcdonald's over pigs. the food chain needs to end the practice of using suppliers that house pregnant pigs in small crates. i can't call that humane and nominated directors to stop it. >> we're probably 90% there to putting up the slate.

we're not fooling around with them anymore, putting up a slate and say hey, you have to live up to your promise and do this. ritika: mcdonald's isn't commenting. a huge dispute was settled with payment fees on visa. the e commerce giant will accept visa cards across the global network and will no longer charge a fee in australia and china who use visa cards on its sight and will not turn oversea cards from customers in the u.k. quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 companies. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the major concern is we cannot let mr. putin take over the sovereignty of an independent state by force.

that would compromise the entire security and fabric of europe. that's something that cannot be allowed to happen. jon: washington on the same page. that was senator ben cardin from new york city. good morning. the futures down half of 1% and the yields come in three basis points, not the 2% on 10's and tom waking up to disputes, claims and counterclaims. tom: absolutely. we're monitoring the markets carefully. there's been a good litmus paper, if you will, of what we see in the headlines and we're waiting for a russian response to what you heard from secretary of state blinken yesterday. we'll bring you those headlines on radio and television. right now in brussels and most importantly, outside the spirit, the building's named in honor of the french diplomat robert sherman is maria who joins us from brussels. in honor of robert shuman it was

his great home as founding diplomat of modern europe that there should be a coalition of the willing. how is the coalition doing this morning? mr. blinken ended his statement yesterday talking about allies, how allied are the allies? maria: tom, i would say they're very much united on this. we know when it comes to european politics, european leaders make a difference between internal and external matters and seen it repeatedly when it comes to china and trade and brexit. it's one thing to bicker and fight on european matters and another different one to do it on foreign policy. we've seen a lot of unity i would argue between the french and germans. nothing gets done in europe if berlin and paris are not aligned and both say they are and the europeans appreciate the help they're getting from west europe. there's usually at times often a tension between the two of them but on this they all have an

interest in making sure that puthen is pushed back. tom: the terseness of secretary blinken's statement was stunning and i heard it from greg value yea and david reubenstein joining us yesterday. what will french and german diplomats listen for in the lavrov or putin response early this morning? maria: they want to look at the references from nato and in particular what to do with eastern ukraine. in europe the focus is very much in the eastern promises and the official told me the situation is tense and ukrainians are saying the russians attacked a school and the russians say it's ukraine that escalated intentions and worry at any point considering the tension going on in the area we could see something that could spark military action. there's real concern what is going on in eastern europe today

particularly in eastern ukraine and far from the escalation, the officials say in the past two hours things are moving very quickly and point to particularly escalation and it's very different stories. lisa: that's what the markets are reflecting and that's been the tone. i was struck by the secretary of nato yesterday coming out and saying they're actually thinking of building up some nato troops in eastern europe in response to what he said is the new normal of aggression from russia. what are we going to learn in this two-day meeting that ends today about the possible buildup of troops? maria: look, what they say now is that they don't believe -- they don't trust the video and say we're never going to take anything russia puts out at face value. they also say they worry -- this is a detail or traps the tech nick cality that they pay attention to at nato, when you pullback it's not just the men but you have to pull back everything, the ammunition and

weapons and a concern, particularly in belarus, that's a fast way to the capital. and russia pulls back the men and leave the weapon which is is concerning and they're ready for a attack and all they need to do is bring the men back. lisa: i want to get to the new normal, the aggression. what is the response from nato, or the approach, will it be a battle of information? will it be some sort of buildup in military alliance or all of the above? what's driving this new rising tension that does not seem to be possibly dissipated any time soon? maria: well, lisa, every eastern european official i've spoken with say they want more nato equipment and more nato troops in eastern europe. that's something that's clear. i would not be surprised to see that nato, particularly on the eastern front, gets bigger with much more investment than in particular countries come to terms that they can't outsource everything to the united states and need to pay up more.

it's something i would not be surprised to see it gets bigger. in terms of the new normal, will this be the new normal? you listen to the secretary-general, he said it clearly, russia and china are working together and do not believe in the democracy, or the way that we do and will continue. vladimir putin a week ago said we don't see any limits to the partnership we can have with china, there's nothing off the table. jon: we'll leave it there from the european commission from maria tadeo and waiting for the news conference from the nato attorney general. tom: and they're waiting as well. you don't want to do a press conference without a full briefing but it's a moveable feast and i see it in the markets. again, gold ebbs away and oil is down $1.60 right now. even the -- well, the 10-year yield in the u.s. under 2%. that shows the tension as we

await stoltenberg. jon: 199.98. you have these two disputing claims at the moment, lisa, u.s. disputing claims of a pullback and russia disputing claims of a buildup and hear the same claim from the u.k., the british government as well and another headline in the mix that gets a lot of people's attention, russian back separatists claiming ukrainian forces violated a cease-fire agreement. hasn't been verified and one of the claims out there at the moment just adding to the tension of this equity market. lisa: it feels like a tinderbox and everybody is looking at mistrusting one another and looking to see when it will become inflamed to see if they can reach a diplomatic solution. the diplomacy aspect is taking very much of a public facing information war which isn't constructive. jon: we'll bring the headlines from the news conference and futures pull back .5% and the

nasdaq down .7%. yield to break at 2%. yield to lower by four basis points now to 199.80. crude, this is the one that stands out. you have equities down, i get all that. crude, 91.48 and is not the spike in crude people were looking for this morning. tom: i would suggest brent be 95ish and it's 93ish and is the oddity. jon: we'll talk with the chief global strategist and asset allocation head at deutsche bank. as we start to being of maybe march into this year is under threat with high prices. lisa: if you look at the downward revisions but which margins, is it wal-mart or gucci? gucci seems to be doing just fine and will wee see the wal-mart earnings struggle more? jon: in about five minutes' time and tom will be a cross them as they drop. futures down .5% and yields drop

four basis points and crude down 1.9% on w.t.i. at 91.86. with tom keene, lisa and jon ferro, this is "bloomberg surveillance."

♪ >> there is a real risk that the fed is about to embark on a policy mistake. >> inflation has been a lot stickier, a lot higher, and is broadening out. >> i do think there's a peak of this inflation story that will have to be squeezed out by the fed. >> they got a little bit too far behind the curve. they are trying to get aggressively in front of the curve. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market down 0.5% on the s&p. it is claims and counterclaims. tom: we got headlines out moments ago. you see those first on bloomberg.

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