>> what we are seeing over the past couple of days is more demand for hedges. >> we just don't know how much of this will suffer correct. >> over the long-term, we are still sticking with the view that things will moderate. >> we think it is going to be a subpar year for growth. >> focus on the here and now earnings, not those far in the future. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, a momentous thursday. claims in 30 minutes, but far more, we await comments from mr.

putin and mr. lavrov as they respond to blinken and the united states, stoltenberg and general austin front and center this morning. jonathan: we are the same thing in the last one he for hours. we have not seen a pullback. we would like to see one. russia saying they have pulled back. that is the dispute we with up to this morning. tom: we are watching the market reaction. we will talk to michael holland about this new equity market and inflation in a moment. but as we await, as you said earlier, little bit of a nudge to angst, but it cuts either way across asset class. jonathan: it is i headline driven equity market. for now, no drama. for the fed, mike for early of jp morgan -- michael feroli of jp morgan talks seven hikes for

the fed. suggesting that if the fed does not deliver what the market expects, you would get an adverse reaction in this market because the belief would build that the fed would not deliver on the issue of the moment. tom: we just heard reticence from blackrock. there is still a group out there that says improving inflation will get us away from certitude of seven hikes. jonathan: we really are super divided. we can talk about what is priced. whatever i put out on twitter, goleman says seven, bank of america says seven, jp morgan says seven come of the month of the mountain pushback you get to that, the same old line. they will not be able to do this without causing big problems. tom: a fractured washington, particularly the legislative branch, tries to respond to what we observe in kiev. lisa: and also to inflation, and it is related. the gas tax and the gas issue, and how much gas prices have climbed. this all plays into this idea of the self-limiting kind of spiral

you are seeing. how much do you see inflation come down because you see demand coming down as well? consumers pushing back. it is fascinating to put this together with the walmart earnings that show consumers are still showing up, and as long as they are showing up, people do not see inflation or impulse abating that quickly. tom: i will start the data check with gold of $17. i start with gold -- gold up $17. i start with gold because we have never made a dime in gold. jonathan: on the nasdaq, down 0.25%. on tens, 2.005%. crude with a break down by 1.5%, $92 to any five cents. tom: on radio and television, we monitor the headlines, particularly from moscow, eight hours in advance. i believe it is 4:00 p.m. in moscow. .

while you are going far away, as i talked to david rubenstein yesterday, there was a small matter of cuba and a missile crisis. i remember clearly as a child my father saying they had the newspapers from us. michael holland was holding court on the football field at saint edwards in cleveland during the cuban missile crisis. one question on the geopolitics of the moment and our combined history. you push it aside when you have money at risk? gargi: absent -- michael: absolutely not. all of the things you have been reporting this morning are part of the battle for investment survival. there is a recurrence of things that are going on right now, including comments about saudi arabia, what was going on back then. prices went up dramatically. i think we are concerned that a

number of people, smart people are echoing the problems of inflation, which many people listen to this right have never experienced. back in the 1950's, it was one of the worst things that happened to our country because the most horrible and the least able to cope with inflation are those that are hurt the most by inflation. it would get it again, it is going to be very ugly. people have not experienced it, so people are easily able to deny it. the fed has a 6% forecast -- has a 2.6% forecast several quarters out. i hope they are right. jonathan: let's talk about the words of the former new york fed president bill dudley. he has called it fantasyland, the dot plot for 2024, just north of 2%. we are trying to work out the pace of the journey and the destination.

how far do you think this fed is going to have to push it? gargi: my guess -- michael: i guess -- my guess is it is going to be much more than anyone in february of 2022 believes right now. i think we listened this morning and previously to all of the supply problems, supply chain problems, energy problems. labor is the largest component of concern that hyperinflation is caused by. i think the fact that we don't have a lot of people looking for jobs right now, we have a scarcity of labor. wage price spiral is a phrase we use to hear years ago. lisa: if the fed is forced to move well more than the market is currently expecting, are you saying that there's no way for the fed to adequately address the inflationary pressures

without causing a recession? michael: in a word, yes. paul volcker came into his position to try to cure the ugliness of inflation. it started in august 1979. inflation peaked in 1980 at 14%. on treasuries, went to 14%, 15% in 1980, 1981. i can't believe i am saying all these negative things, but i am just repeating history. these things are possible because they are possible for people serious about their own investments. so what would you do if you had some certainty that might happen ? lisa: what are you doing if you see this as a likely possibility? michael: people will throw out

that stocks are an inflation hedge. that is true if you have moderate inflation. if you have large inflation, which we may or may not have, i think you may have a situation where all markets, the tradable markets are affected negatively. look at the history of gold. look at the history of real estate in these periods. go back to the 1970's and 1980's and read the history. all markets are affected. it is a question of where you lose the least money. one of the things the people listening to this forecast would be wise to think about is even though you lose money holding cash, you lose less than if you were long treasuries because when you are long treasuries and rates go where they are now to the years ago of hyperinflation, it was a ton of money, so bonds

are a bad place to be. jonathan: we appreciate your time. you are a true market historian. i always learn something speaking to you. michael holland, thank you, sir. we are all waking up this morning to claims and counterclaims. the united states is saying they see a troop buildup. the russians are saying they are pulling troops back. russia is denying repeatedly that they are planning to invade ukraine. we're hearing from the u.s. envoy to the u.n. speaking to reporters and saying, "the united states saying that russia is moving towards imminent invasion." what you hear from the u.s. and what you hear from russia are worlds apart at the moment. tom: it is a nuance in between as well, and i would suggest that europe has come to more of the u.s. conversation in the last four or five days. that will drive forward a headline five minutes ago. the secretary of state to discuss ukraine in some form at

the united nations here on thursday, so that will ruin our midtown traffic for the day. nevertheless, a very important moment. i really want to emphasize for those on radio and tv that this is a stay tuned through the day moment as russia is scheduled to respond. jonathan: i think my commute home is a high-class problem i won't even talk about. these are serious issues. the good thing for nato at the moment is we are seeing some real unity. everyone that speaks is speaking from the same hymn sheet and saying the same thing repeatedly. lisa: the idea that european members may increase their troops and recognize the presence, i just want to go back to something michael holland said. this is another prong of the risk aversion we are seeing this morning. whether the fed can avoid

spurring inflation is something of a question. in order to even prevent a recession, they have to spur a selloff in riskier assets, particularly mortgage debt, and how they do that without escalating into some sort of crisis, that is one of the main debates right now among a lot of strategists. jonathan: futures down bureau .4% -- down about 0.4 percent. yields did break lower today by about three or four basis points. euro-dollar unchanged at 1.1 317% -- at 1.1317. oil down there .6%, 0.7% at $93 a barrel. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world come up with the first word,

ritika gupta. european leaders holding an emergency summit on ukraine today will not discuss a sections package in detail. instead, they will focus on diplomacy. the aim is to avoid leaders picking and choosing proposed sanctions if russia does indeed attack ukraine. moscow has denied it has any plans to do so. meanwhile, europe looks to be gradually leaving be penned up behind. germany is becoming the latest in the region to unwind restrictions that have destructed life -- that have disrupted life for two years. most of the curbs be rolled back by march 20. hong kong deploying a tactic used to root out coronavirus cases, planning a testing blitz of the entire city. bloomberg has learned chinese medical experts will probably be brought into help. local media say the push will begin in early march. some surprises from walmart today. the world's largest retailer had a better-than-expected quarterly

profit and an upbeat forecast for the current fiscal year despite cost pressures and flagging consumer sentiment. federal regulators are investing complaints about tesla cars that suddenly break at high speeds. national highway traffic safety administration says it has received 354 reports of so-called phantom breaking. no crashes or injuries have been reported. there has been no comment from tesla. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> the good news is that all sides, including russia, or at least vocally still open to diplomacy. as long as that is still an option, i think we will still see a lot of effort in that area. there might be a little wiggle room there. jonathan: an important moment for the people of ukraine. dooley norman, university college -- julie norman, university college london politics and international relations lecturer. on the nasdaq, down by 0.6%. there is some firmness to the treasury market, a break of 2% at 1.9998%, down four basis points on the 10 year yield. as we have said repeatedly

through the morning, a morning of claims and counterclaims. the dispute between russia and nato ongoing. tom: we will have claims in 12 minutes as well, but on a different topic, and that would be jobless claims, and what some say is a fully employed america. we continue the dialogue on those claims on the european continent as we monitor headlines from moscow from mr. lavrov and mr. bruton, and we do this with terry haines -- mr. bruton, and we do this with -- mr. putin, and we do this with terry haines of pangaea policy. the august committee with mr. fulbright of arkansas and others. right now the foreign relations committee is paralleled by the gentleman from new jersey and the gentleman from idaho. can they get on the same page of kiev and ukraine? terry: i suppose so.

the big divide in congress is not inconsequential, but not unbridgeable. it is when sanctions should take hold rather than whether they ought to, and there is a little bit of discussion about what they ought to be. part of this is congress' continued desire to want to be relevant in the policy discussions, as they should want to be. but there's active dialogue about whether sanctions ought to be imposed sooner rather than later, and that is fair enough. i think right now they have dithered enough about this, that they are unlikely to come out with anything real serious, and of course, it is as much or more up to the president than it is to them. the net effect of congressional action is seating the timing of substance to president biden.

tom: if i do the mass, perhaps the democrats will take the house, is the continent of europe right now the kind of issue that will allow the rebel codes -- the republicans to take the senate? michael: the answer is it depends. it depends on the bite in response. if this comes into some sort of afghanistan replay, not really so much refugees, but kind of a unilateral break slamming cash -- unilateral brake slamming , keeping congress outcome of that helps republicans, certainly. i don't get the sense that republicans are trying to game it at all. it is very important domestically, as well as internationally, for the president to handle this well, to handle it in consultation, to

handle it in a way that the public and congress both understand, but the stakes -- understand come up with what the stakes are and what the steps are. lisa: this is the noise to an issue that president biden does not want right now. he is trying to deal with the inflation issue that might become a factor in the election. they are putting it in your to the fed, saying you have to do something about this, and yet the fed has a lot of vacant seats with the nominees left in limbo. tom: to me -- michael: to me, the pushing off on the fed is highly diversionary. it does not help them politically. my view of this for some time has been that the vast majority of the fed seats that have been nominated, the five out of the seven, have been people that will largely continue an

inflationary posture. they are going to be more dovish than is expected. i understand the markets took yesterday's statement as somewhat dovish as well. but two of those five i think have problems and are unlikely to be confirmed, bloom raskin and cook. but you will have fed policy stasis for quite some time, and that is well out of the administration's wheelhouse or congress's wheelhouse to deal with. these problems linger a lot longer as a result. lisa: the reason i bring this up , it is related to the international tensions right now because of gas prices, because of oil, one component of inflation, and people are pointing the finger at the fed, and yet there does not seem to be any other cohesive plan. are you expecting any other proposal from a fiscal standpoint or a legislative

standpoint to try to bring back inflation? michael: nothing that is likely --terry: nothing that is likely or would be consequential. the gas tax idea is at most a band-aid on the problem, and it helps undercut infrastructure spend because that is what the gas tax is for. it would not make a difference certainly before the election, so therefore no time soon. i see it as a political problem without a solution, but i think it is a substantive problem that does not go away and does not change, regardless of what other bluster happens in the administration or in congress. jonathan: thank you. wonderful to hear your voice on the program, as always. it's work through it point by point. overnight, the u.s. disputing claims of a russian troop old back.

the russians disputing u.s. claims of a troop old up. . the russians have repeatedly denied any plans to invade ukraine, but we just had stern words from linda thomas-greenfield. she went on to say, "evidence on the ground is that russia is moving towards imminent invasion." what we will hear a little later this morning, 10:00 a.m. eastern time, we will hear from security blinken, scheduled to speak to the un security council this thursday morning. tom: and i would say within the nuances of "surveillance" this morning comes the markets have moved, and particularly oil with a new spike up to 94.50% -- up to $94.05. jonathan: we are down 20 on the

s&p, down by 0.4%. the nasdaq is lower by 0.6%. yields down, heading south by three or four basis points to just a little north of 2% on the u.s. 10 year. from new york, with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. jobless claims in america up next. ♪

jonathan: there is a massive focus on the situation in ukraine. at the moment we have to turn to the jobless data in america. futures in .5%. on the nasdaq down .6%. yields lower on the 10 year, break of 2% at 1.90 980%. with your economic data here is michael mckee. michael: jobless claims are worse than anticipated. i'm not sure whether the market will react at this point. 248,000 claims for the week ending february 12. that is up from 222,000 it in the initial report last month. that was certainly not expected. it is about 30,000 higher than we had anticipated.

housing starts are out and that is a big report because were trying to see what the effect of rising mortgage rates are. we see housing starts dropped 4.1% on the month. there is a seasonal rate of 1.6 million annual homes. the december estimate was revised up -- i cannot get the revision. let's switch over to building permits and note they are up at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.9 million, that is a .7% increase. building permits and starts are decoupled from home sales because there a lot of backlog for builders. it does look like they slow down in january. it could be whether but we also to do with rising mortgage rates. as i mentioned the jobless claims up 248,000, the revision 225,000 last week. a significant increase.

philadelphia fed comes in at six green -- at 16, down 23.2 from the month of january. this is below the expectation for 20. a slowing in philadelphia for manufacturing. jonathan: that downside surprised got my attention. i am pleased you brought it up. yields down five basis points. on the housing market, in the fed minutes, and a shout out to luke kawa for bringing this up -- remember luke -- this headline, the fact the rising housing prices is not being fueled by rising increase in mortgage debt. i had this back-and-forth with bob michele yesterday. when interest rates start to back higher, can you walk me through how much impact this can have on the economy compared to previous cycles given you see the rising housing prices not being fueled by a large increase

in mortgage debt? michael: we did get a report from the new york fed yesterday that mortgage debt had risen significantly in the fourth quarter. it is the largest source of debt. what has happened since the housing crisis is far fewer subprime loans are being made. that means less of issue. also many more people have gone into fixed-rate mortgages. they will not see their mortgages but just because the fed is raising interest rates. an issue for businesses with short-term debt and the u.s. government which will have to pay more on its debt. michael: -- tom: blackrock is reticent on seven rate hikes. i see philadelphia is psaki and also empire statistics were soggy as well. what you make of this tertiary

statistics showing a soggy spirit? michael: the new orders index is always important, and the new orders index for philadelphia drops. it does look like there was an economic slowdown in january. a lot of that is philadelphia omicron. the interesting number, prices paid in philadelphia falls to 69.3 from 72.5. still very elevated but it is a decline. this is because business -- is this because business load because of omicron or are we starting to see inventories rise and companies to do slow the rate of pricing? jonathan: thank you as always. world-class at breaking down the stop. looking at the data, pmi next week, pce deflator, the ism as we break into march. jobless claims sprinkled through the week every week. march 10, the final cpi report before the fed meets on march 15

and march 16. tom: they are data dependent. i believe that is what kathleen bostjancic has written. i look at the data and i look at the tertiary data, empire this in philadelphia that. other indices you know and i do not know. what does the tertiary and secondary data say about the growth first derivative in america? kathleen: happy to be with you. on the one hand we are seeing impacts from omicron. overall it is rather limited when we look at the tertiary or the headline data. i say that come up rigidly retail sales this week really surprised to the upside. the increase was almost more than double consensus expectations. the core number, which feeds into consumer spending, was quite strong. bottom line, we thought gdp would be about flat for the

first quarter, maybe even could turn negative. now it looks to be solidly positive, between 1% and 2%. that means going into q2 positions look better, the economy should get back on a more robust path. net-net we are looking at an economy that is quite healthy and demand is strong. lisa: let's dig into that. if you look at the atlanta gdp now index you see the expectations for q1 gdp skyrocketing after the retail sales number we got yesterday. what in that gave you that kind of confidence considering the fact a lot of people pointed to the inflation adjustments and other adjustments around the edges that would leave it with a tepid type of scale? kathleen: no doubt the nominal number is much faster than the real. even when we adjust for inflation which surprised the upside in january, still very strong momentum coming into the

start of the year for the consumer. that was way down by omicron. a portion of retail sales was quite weak. we think services will be week but the durables and nondurable goods orders were very strong. as we rotate back to in person services as health conditions get better, that could only support service spending. jonathan: we do not expect you to get a foreign policy crystal ball and tell us what will happen with you right. i wonder catch with ukraine. i wonder -- what will happen with ukraine. i wonder if you ever figure out what will happen with different scenarios for the federal reserve in march? kathleen: we worry about inflation, oil prices surging higher, that will affect headline, and inflation

pressures are quite high. then the uncertainty factor. has that effect asset markets and financial conditions overall and what is the feedback through europe and the trade channels? is not the direct effect for us, but it is the uncertainty. tom: how do you monitor -- your whole career has been away from effect for us, but it is the uncertainty. tom:this, which i give you great credibility on. the pace of rate hikes, the parlor game of guesstimating out within a greenspan measured mode where we are going. what is the level of certitude of that belief or the probability of that outcome? kathleen: much less than in the past, although there is always great uncertainty when your forecasting the rate pop. what the federal reserve is trying to grapple with with how quickly they can get back to neutral and do they need to go restrictive and what is neutral?

the federal reserve thinks it is round 2.5%. there is a range. it is probably somewhere between 1.5 and 2%. how quickly do they need to get back to that and how much to the financial conditions in the economy handle that? from my perspective i was leery of this parlor game of five or six rate hikes and i've been impressed with how well the financial markets have handled pricing in six or seven rate hikes. we just decided seven is a good enough estimate for this year and we are in the 50 basis point camphor march. -- in the 50 basis point camp for march. tom: she is out of control. kathleen: we look at the inflation numbers in the january numbers were faster than we thought.

we still think inflation will decelerate for the rest of the year but the peak is higher, and as we go through our estimates we get core inflation above 3%. we think that is unacceptably high for the fed. we have to hear from jay powell, we have to hear from lael brainard. that is going to be the key. are they leaning towards 50 or 25? in our analysis, we think starting with 50 and then pulling back towards a traditional 25 basis points is easier for the markets to handle than starting with 25 and saying now we need to go to 50, that could be more destabilizing. jonathan: you have got company. thank you for burying the lead. that is our part -- that is our fault for not starting with that. if they do not deliver what you are talking about it would amount to an easing of financial conditions. do you believe so and how much of a problem with that be? kathleen: i think it could

disappoint the markets thinking the fed is not worried about their credibility and fighting inflation is much as they should. it could backfire and be adverse for market reactions in that sense. it is hard to say whether financial conditions would ease but they may not be going away the markets would feel comfortable. if the markets are 50-50 on 50 basis points might as well take it. jonathan: awesome as always. kathleen bostjancic of oxford economics. 10:00 eastern you will speak -- you hear from antony blinken on his way to the u.n. on his way to munich. lori calvasina coming up at 9:00 eastern to weigh in on the equity market. from new york, this is bloomberg.

ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word. the cdc wants to give people a break from wearing masks. the agency is reviewing its masked guidance and shifting its focus to covid hospitalizations with a key measure of how severe the upright is. the current policy is if people live in an area with high transmission of the virus they should be wearing masks indoor public spaces. in canada justin trudeau's emergency orders aimed at cutting funds to protesters have cast a wide net across the canadian financial industry. portfolio and security firms are taking a harder look at who they are doing business with. any suspicious transactions must be reported to the country's anti-money laundering agency. more details about the u.s. investigation into how morgan stanley executives handle blockchain. authorities are examining recordings of phone calls between the bank an outside fund managers.

the recordings of conversations involving one of morgan stanley's top equities executives and blockchain. he has not been accused of wrongdoing. shares of doordash are soaring. they are now set to rise back above their ipo price. the company reported a record 369 million orders in the fourth quarter, 830 5% increase from a year ago. the largest car dealership chain in the u.s. posted record profit in the fourth quarter. the company reaped gains from soaring oil prices. used cars rose 55% from a year earlier. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the pandemic is not behind us but we are in the recovery.

the next 18 months will be about managing the situation with suppliers. logistics around the world is a challenge and the prices are very high. tom: guillaume faury of airbus moving the story forward ever huge post-pandemic travel summer is expected in the tumultuous year in aviation. lisa abramowicz, headline, and we need to be very careful, set of headlines floating around in surveillance and bloomberg news only deals with proper attribution so will be quite careful. ria of russia have spelled the deputy u.s. ambassador with no name identified. lisa: the nasdaq looking down .9%. the skittishness of people trying to get a sense of where we are in this back-and-forth. tom: right now we are going to get a look at something

domestic. i was floored when he became the chief executive officer of autonation. autonation is hugely visible within the distribution and sale of automobiles and trucks in america. michael manley is not just another ceo. this is someone steeped in the fiat religion, the chrysler religion. you would understand that in my childhood it was renault, not "re-no", that is how far back i go. used cars while, new cars not. how has the year been? mike: you have identified it. on the one hand we have had significant demand and be able to fulfill that on the used-car side and on the new car side we are working as closely as we can with the oem to try to predict what we will receive. most of it is sold.

that is in and out in the most important thing is to keep our customers informed about when their vehicles are arriving. tom: lisa abramowicz has 14 questions. will we buy electric cars? is there believe that whether they are a porsche or not, something in the middle or the great desire of a cheap electric car come is america going to buy them? michael: america will buy electric cars, i have no doubt. the important question is what timeframe will they cover the entire industry. what we are seeing is a big increase, but as you and i know that is a significant demographic. what we need to see happening is mass adoption of two things. and infrastructure people are comfortable with and can use on a daily basis and we need to work with the oem to drive those prices down so they become much more affordable to the heart of the market. when those two things happen you will see adoption rates rise but

it will not be this year. lisa: one thing people are struggling with is how much a structural and how much is cyclical. how much of the bump you got and all auto dealerships got is because of the tight supplies driving people to buy more vehicles. how much of that will persist and give you that pricing power that has been extraordinary? michael: i am going to turn to our fourth quarter results because if you look at those you get a partial answer, and i will expand on that. one of the things most organizations have done during the pandemic is look at their cost base and removed significant cost and that is structural. what we have had to do is create efficiency and productivity in a different way and we are confident that will survive beyond the pandemic. the increase we are seeing in terms of after sales revenue with more miles driven as we get out of the pandemic, that will continue as well.

volume is good and will be sustained. the big question is new vehicle margins. notwithstanding new vehicle volume is down, it has been more than compensated for a big spike in margins. when i step back, what we are doing is selling new vehicles around msrp. that is what we are supposed to do. what the pandemic did was press the reset button on the balance of inventory. the key question is are we going to take the advantage of that reset button that has been pressed and in conjunction with the oem keep the balance we need to maintain good do car pricing? you will see some mitigation in terms of margin on new cars but i believe the lesson is now embedded they will not return back to the 2018 or 2017 margins. lisa: to be clear, as to the msrp, you think we will head

back to a level more in tandem with that suggested retail price ? -- to have something to order to continue maintaining margins to some degree? michael: when i talk about our volumes, autonation's volume last year, 2% of the vehicles we sold were above msrp, so the majority of our imports were at or below msrp. that has been able to achieve that because of a better balance between supply and demand. with additional inventory coming in with the demand that is there, we should be able to maintain that pricing position because we are talking about the reduction in the significant discounts that were required when all of the industry sat on a multiple of stock we have today. there was a complete imbalance between that supply and demand. we had a reset button in the

inventory levels are low, too low. there is no opportunity to build inventory levels up, not to where they were before to but to keep the balance between supply and demand so we are starting it msrp. tom: michael manley, thank you for joining us. we need to move on to headlines. the chief executive officer of autonation and the battles of this pandemic in moving units to america. i guess it should not be a surprise. we have an ambassador announcement. the ruble holds onto losses after russia expels the u.s. ambassador, that is a bloomberg headline. vladimir putin is worried about inflation. lisa: who isn't worried about inflation? i wonder how much this is a date at the western nations -- a dig at the western nations who are his nemeses. how much is this saying this is a problem for everybody, so do you want to escalate this and

created even worse problem? i go back to that, it is the main transmission for markets that could be disruptive on an economic level. tom: the ruble weakens out a little bit. let me go through the headlines. russia must keep following budget rules. vladimir putin says inflation has been a global challenge lately. he says we need to take active measures to lower inflation. i think joe biden could have written these headlines. lisa: i wonder how much it is telegraphing the message. inflation is a concern so how much do you want a biden could e written these headlines. lisa: conflict? everyone is trying to jawbone themselves into a better position. tom: this shows business as usual in the afternoon in moscow. our team in moscow will monitor the story and the team in london working across europe into kyiv on this developing story.

futures at -35, dow futures -222, the vix coming out, 26.41. please stay with bloomberg radio and bloomberg television through this thursday. good morning. ♪

jonathan: risk aversion building. from new york city, yields

lower, treasuries down .8%. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city we begin with the big issue. geopolitical jitters. >> people are nervous. >> general tolerance for risk is muted right now. >> project way with ukraine headline. >> geopolitical risk around russia and ukraine. >> replacing covid is our -- as our worry du jour. >> if russia does invade 50 pbs is off the table. >>