tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg February 20, 2022 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
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haidi: good morning. we are counting down to shery: asia's major market open. shery:welcome to daybreak asia. our top stories this hour. the u.s. warns russia may attack cities beyond the ukrainian capital as moscow sends -- says troops will remain in -- in belarus indefinitely. traders winning feds calls for higher rates to fight inflation.
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hong kong may tighten its covid curves as the city reports more than 6000 virus cases for a second day. haidi: let's get you to the start of trading in sydney. we had seen a little bit of the downside expected with the trading in futures. volatility is still the name of the game. uncertainty driving the flows into haven assets. a flat start when it comes to trading in sydney. watching agl in particular. brookfield as well as the consortium including mike brooks to waiting to see what happens. we are seeing agl trading at the moment. we are watching bluescope dropping by almost 3% after the profit forecast and by that plans were announced. we continue to watch the news at of it -- news as it comes out of earnings.
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up a quarter of 1%. chicago nikkei futures looking pretty mild at this point. we are watching some of the reopening stocks as australian borders reopen to international travelers for the first time in two years. shery: it is all about their be opening trades across asia. we are watching u.s. futures because we continue to see the downside momentum after stocks fell and bonds climbed on the friday session in the u.s. it is presidents' day tomorrow so we are heading for a long holiday weekend. we are seeing the downside pressure and the s&p many futures extending those declines. the nasdaq composite had tumbled into a crush. futures trading at the moment as the 10 year yield fell to the 1.9%. treasuries again acting as havens in this uncertainty. wti is rebounding and rising above $92 per barrel.
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we had seen it posting its first weekly slide in two months. this as we have more tensions around ukraine with the u.s. warning russia could be targeting cities beyond kiev. we had president biden convening a national security council meeting. russia and belarus will continue. let's get the latest from our editor. a lot to watch out for in tensions around ukraine. what are we expecting this week? >> you lead into it. we have not seen much that would lower the tensions over the weekend. at the same time, the diplomacy or the diplomatic front is still open. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken emphasized that. he said among other things president biden is willing to
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meet or engage with president putin at any time and in any format. if that would help over a war. -- help avert a war. what we need to look out for this week is the military situation on the ground. and the progress if any of diplomacy. we are hearing that macron talked to putin again just today. he seems to have developed some kind of a conduit. how this will play out of course remains to be seen. the latest we heard from russia on the u.s. opposable's for a sort of a effort to assure mutual security in europe was negative. that still stands. haidi: we had the president convening the national security
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council to talk about the latest. what did we learn from that meeting? >> not much to be honest. the white house put out a very brief statement on this. they released a picture showing the meeting. including the u.s. intelligence chief, the people you expect to take part in a meeting like this. there was not any steer one way or the other in public from the white house. except that we did hear from vice president harris before leaving munich where there was of this big security conference over the weekend or into the weekend. that she reiterated the u.s. assessment that president putin has allegedly made the decision to invade ukraine. of course we need to remember russia says it has no such
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plans. it said so repeatedly and that the u.s. in particular is fanning hysteria as the kremlin puts it and it's surrogates put it. haidi: our editor with the latest. central bank rate decisions from new zealand and south korea headlining a busy weekend for asian economies. kiefer markets when it comes to the russian ukraine situation is the impact on price pressures. are we expecting from the rbnz and the china lpr? >> with new zealand, expectations are for another rate hike. that is what is reflecting what is going on with another rate hike. the labor market is tight. south korea is expected to hold steady. they have moved by 75 basis points.
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even though inflation is over 2%, there is a feeling they have a little bit ahead of the curve at the moment. there are hints the household debt is going back to a place where they would be ok to expectation in china is the banks will match with the pboc. there is already a record amount of credit tipped in the economy. with more easing by the pboc expected. shery: talking about the fed, we have the preferred gauge of inflation from the numbers on the personal consumption expenditure price index coming up later in the week. how much of a very strong inflation print have they factored in and will this number make any difference? >> this is the core one for
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them. this is what they look at for the 2% inflation target. that will kind of underscore this idea that we have inflation since the early 1980's it will put pressure on the fed cannot just raise. it might spark debate on whether it will go by 50 in march. jp morgan expect the fed to move but 25 basis points. that is a hawkish outlook for any central bank. some fed officials speaking over the next couple days that might add some clarity as to whether or not they will go by 50 or 25 in march. the expectations are it is going to inform -- to confirm inflation is running away. a rate hike in march is expected. a debate is whether they go through the shock and all approach -- shock and awe
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approach. i think that is why data sets like today would be crucial for the months ahead. shery: our chief asia economics correspondent with the latest on the global monetary policy front. let's get to vonnie quinn. vonnie: china's securities regulators is going to do more to contain bonds and deepen reform in the that market. the securities wrigley toy commission highlighted the plans to examine bond issuance, registration systems and to open up foreign investment. china could see another record year of bond defaults. hong kong is considering stricter social distancing measures to stem an escalating covert outbreak that is straining hospitals. measures could include random police checks on vaccination status as well as further limits to dining in restaurants. hong kong reported more than 6000 infections for a second day
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on sunday as a team of medical experts from mainland china helped to build quarantine facilities. u.k. prime minister boris johnson still intends to end remaining virus restrictions. johnson said it was time to seize safe mandates, pledging to lay out a plan this week for what is being called living with covid. that is despite opposition from some public health experts as the u.k. continues to see tens of thousands of infections a day. his comments come hours before queen elizabeth ii tested positive for a mild case of covid-19. efforts to revise the iran nuclear deal are being balked -- being bob down by differences. germany's chancellor warning the time to save the accord is now more than ever -- is now or never. iran says it is ready to reach a deal at the earliest possible time. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
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i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: let's take a look at some of the movers. we are seeing agl trading after they rejected a multibillion-dollar takeover bid from brookfield asset management and the tech billionaire mike cannon brookes p the company saying the proposal of seven dollars 50 a share is undervaluing the company. we will see whether brookfield and mike cannon brookes come back with any counter offer. we are watching steel as well give it a dollar 20. also taking a look at net income coming in really much more than expectations for the first half. that stock still trading. another one in view. the prophet year on year and we are watching minerals trading a little bit lower.
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estimates as well as the final dividend per share of 18 we will be getting more on minerals. shery: still ahead, as japan prepares to relax border restrictions, we speak to one of the most vocal supporters of reopening. they join us later this hour. up next, tribeca investment partners tell us how their dealing with extreme market volatility. this is bloomberg. ♪
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our next guest a says it is unlikely extreme levels of volatility are over. stocks will remain vulnerable to disappointing earnings. let's bring in a portfolio manager at tribeca investment partners. great to have you as always with us. taking a look at what you would be paring in terms of risk from your pull folio. how would you be rebalancing echo >> -- rebalancing? >> in terms of risk, we talked to some of this. 2020 two was always going to be a year of transition. we are in terms of the central bank policy, we are moving from a low interest rate environment into a more normalized environment. the risk access needs to readjust. we see a lot of that in january and we see a little bit of that as well. throwing on top of it at the same time, we have this escalation in geopolitical risk.
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if you're an equity investor, it is time to navigate that noise and focus on what is going to drive the ultimate return to taking a step, putting aside geopolitical escalation risk to escalation, the return and economic recovery, things are looking pretty good. the u.s. is still running red hot. that is why they have to increase interest rates somewhat and the rest of the world such as china and where looking to australia and europe. economic recovery will be on track. if anything, it should be a further increase compared to the last calendar year. economic recovery is good. with interest rates returning to a more normalized level, i think there is a lot more room for the risk as set generate good returns for this year. haidi: where specifically do you see that opportunity? what stocks are you looking to do well at this part of the
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cycle? while perhaps not at the end but certainly looking pretty mature? shery: that is a good point. we have been talking about investment companies that have earnings. a big part of it is reopening economy. companies earning has been impacted by the pandemic. these other sectors are expected to grow really well. we have had a setback because omicron sweeps across the world. these may be trouble companies or services. next 12 months, they will deliver growth. don't forget some of the businesses that are more cyclicals such as the commodities that exist. shery: do you like reopening trades even in china because they don't seem to be budging when it comes to their zero covid strategy? >> eventually, the policy will
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have to lose them because -- will have to loosen because you are already seeing omicron going through hong kong and it is escalating quite quickly. the economy cannot sustain a long time of start and stop. that is going to the dent the long run. we hope that policy will be listened. -- will be loosened. i think these businesses will absolutely be impacted. if you're taking a long-term view, some of the high quality brands even though they get impacted for the time being, eventually they will come through. it is all about strong balance sheets and how much cash flow they can retain. shery: covid restrictions don't seem to be losing in china. when it comes to monetary policy, it seems that it is. the journal saying china has
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room to boost growth. we have seen these expectations for a while. i have seen people point two this loosening supporting equity markets. what happens to chinese debt echo are they less attractive as u.s. yields arise or do they also serve the person at -- the purpose of diversification? >> they are tracking some of the highest returns for many years. relative to the different market credits. we actually think the debt and the credit market in that space is looking very attractive, particularly china is on the policy stance to loosen compared to the likes of the u.s., which is to tighten. it provides very attractive return. it is worth for investors to start looking at that market. shery: good to have you back.
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shery: we are tracking the full of the global supply chain crunch. g shares fell friday after the manufacturer warned supply chain challenges will be a drag on businesses until at least the middle of the year. supply chain issues will pressure overall growth, profit and free cash flow. still sticking with its full-year forecast. fast food chains across southeast asia are being hit by
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a shortage of french fries. supply chain snarls are slowing shipments from the u.s. and europe should kfc outlets -- and european kfc stores are replacing fries with waffles. here in the u.s., rice crispy's are the latest victim of the supply chain snag. shoppers across the country taking to social media. winning out the serial has disappeared from store shelves. kellogg's says manufacturing strains are causing the shortages. i don't know what i would do without french fries. haidi: i know a lot of people that are very concerned. we have to take a look at the impact of geopolitics and global grain supplies. russia and ukraine are heavyweights when it comes to wheat, sunflower oil. we see any supply disruption,
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that could make as vulnerable to higher food costs. russia has denied it plans to attack ukraine. terminal users can fret more about their fries. you can read all about those stories in our newsletter. shery: as fuels use overruns, -- oil consumption may rise well above and a lack levels by the end of the year. -- above pre-pandemic levels by the end of the european >> we may see a prolonged period of 100 plus in the next six to nine months. it is difficult to be precise about the exact timing. demand is going to surge the second half of the year provided there is no additional worries about the pandemic and provided travel resumes to something like normal.
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>> do we know what kind of prices destroy demand? we have seen prices higher than this in not all that long ago. >> i think you're right. 11, 12, 13, we were 100, 110 range. we have seen these prices before. when that occurred in 11, 12, 13, we did not have the coincidental gas price and cold price explosion that we have today. i think consumers are getting it from all angles, which is not a good thing. demand will at the margin be lost because price -- the price elasticity is there. it gets expensive at the pump. >> we mentioned how supply is tight. one thing that could change that at least to some degree is iran and whether conversations with iran result in iranian feels coming back to market to what is your expectation?
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there does seem to be explication. >> all the parties have been talking this week. it sounds like there is an agreement beginning to form. it has been a long path to get here. i think the market is assuming something will get done in the next few weeks and probably the market needs that oil. the second half of the year would benefit from that additional supply to from a consumer's point of view. a little bit easier to balance. i think most people have got that factored in. most people would expect an additional volume from iran. clearly they are producing oil and they are consuming oil themselves today. the extra supply they could send out to the world would be about a million barrels. >> do you have any sense>> how much political premium there is in the oil price? from what we have discussed,
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supply and demand dynamics would suggest oil prices stay elevated even without the geopolitical risk premium to what would you assume would come out if we see these tensions? >> i don't think the geopolitics specifically account for a huge -- talking about the russia ukraine conflict, i don't think that accounts for the price premium at the moment. shery: russell hardy speaking with -- haidi: russell hardy speaking with anna edwards. coal india has warned production may be a hazard if the company is unable to raise prices paired the world's largest coal producer is facing cost pressures from rising wages and how prices of diesel used to power equipment. india relies on coal for 70% of electricity generation should agl energy has rejected a joint bid. and a struggling billionaire. the energy giant board says
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♪ shery: -- vonnie: the u.s. to be telling allies russia could potentially target multiple cities in ukraine at any moment. sources say beyond the capital of kiev, targets might include odessa. sources say the u.s. view is shaped in part by -- near ukraine. the kremlin has repeatedly denied it plans to invade. russia and belarus extending
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their biggest joint military drills in nearest or the training exercises were scheduled to finish sunday but larue cited eastern ukraine's deteriorating situation. officials point to increased military activity in the area. ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky has called on allies in the west to do more after delivering a speech. indonesia's central bank may start selling government bonds. bank indonesia used the so-called -- sharing program to allow it to directly purchase $58 billion worth over three years. such programs are controversial because they can edge out foreign investors. the -- governor told bloomberg about potential plans to unwind debt monetization until next year. >> if in the future, that will be the supply of government bonds, compared to demand --
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domestic remitted because -- coming from the -- [indiscernible] vonnie: auto while police have -- protesters from the parliament building after a week's long blockade. about 170 people were arrested as police intensify their actions. deploying pepper spray, batons and mounted units to remove demonstrators. police say the operation has not been completed, with others remaining camped on downtown streets. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: turning to the latest of elements, australia reopening borders to double vaccinated visitors today.
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hong kong considering tighter restrictions a near -- near record surge in cases. let's bring in stephen engle in hong kong sail. very different teachers we are seeing. big day for australia. stephen: it is a big day. it has been nearly 700 days, a little under 700 days since the border closed australia. now it is open again. any travelers, if double vaccinated, can enter the country without quarantine. even the unvaccinated will only have to quarantine for seven days. the first flights to arrive from los angeles, they were -- at the airport. everyone was very excited. while stuffed toys being handed out. the trade minister was here and i had a chance to have a conversation with him. here is what he had to say. >> it is huge for australia. 606 he thousand people employed in the tourism industry.
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obviously it has been a difficult two years, but it is party central here at the airport as we are open fully to the world. it is great news and it is great to see the excitement. i think it all goes well for our tourism industry, rebounding strongly. stephen: i spoke to the minister about the number of challenges posed by this reopening. obviously, there still some uncertainty about how coronavirus is going to unfold in the future. the minister was confident that with australia's hive levels of vaccination that high levels of vaccination, that would not be an issue. the tourism industry essentially mothballed for two years, starting up again. australia's previous largest tourism customer was china. no the australia-china relationship has fouled in the past two years. but, we heard from the new south wales premier earlier, saying
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this is what the world looks like now as the virus goes from pandemic to an endemic. haidi: that doesn't seem to be the case in hong kong. we might be seeing more restrictions. what is happening? >> completely opposite scenario playing out in hong kong from party central in sydney. it is not on lockdown, but it is definitely tightened social distancing restrictions and more could be on the way. also of course, the hospital system continues to be overwhelmed in the so-called fifth wave of the virus. there is another 6000 plus cases confirmed, 14 deaths sunday. 6067 new cases. just 10 of those are in critical condition. it raises questions about what is the exit strategy of this dynamic zero covid strategy?
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when the vaccination rate is going up, upwards of 85%, getting close to 85% for residents eligible to get vaccinated to have their first shots. the questions are raised about where you put all of these individuals testing positive. under dynamic zero strategy, all cases have to be isolated and there's not enough isolation wards in hong kong. carrie lam was out at the quarantine center this weekend, yesterday, sunday at the beginning of the launching of the building of a new covid isolation ward with the help of mainland china. the chinese team here is going to be making 10 isolation units -- 10,000 isolation units, in addition to hotel rooms and public housing and sports grounds that are being converted. at the same time, we got news friday that the chief executive
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election which was supposed to be next month, and the nomination period was supposed to begin yesterday, has been delayed by more than a month. as we can see here, essentially her government is now taking -- you have marching orders from president xi who said it should be top priority. she says we cannot afford to be distracted, we cannot afford to make mistakes. a lot of people say mistakes have been made, that is why the situation is so dire here in hong kong with two years to prepare for a scenario. shery: stephen engle and paul allen joining us from the sydney airport. we will have more on the situations in hong kong and australia in the next hour. hong kong legislative council member speaks to us about the city's plans to implement a mass covid maxine -- covid vaccine mandate and it's now delayed election for a new leader.
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a boost for, aviation and transport -- it may take years for the sectors to recover. haidi: up next, japan among those such to relax restrictions with one of the most vocal supporters of the move. they tell us why they think it is a necessary step to revive growth in the nation. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: we are now seeing 20 minutes until the opening in japan. ek futures pointing downward. the japanese yen holding steady after strengthening to a two week high versus the u.s. dollar. currently very close to the 115 level. we are of course watching jgb, halted after the strong sale thursday. yields easing from six year highs. we may see some downside when it comes to the broader equity markets and risk assets, given we continue to see pressure coming from wall street. haidi: based on the stories we are following out of japan, softbank urging a u.s. judge to block credit suisse from accessing internal documents, calling it a fishing expedition as the bank prepares to file a lawsuit over green space
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capital. just under an hour's time -- support for this -- the prime minister slid by more than eight percentage points in the latest polls. a survey conducted now has public approval at 43.4%. shery: japan ruling back some of those stringent border measures next week, ending a ban on new entry by foreigners and easing quarantine rules. still, the government will cap daily arrivals at 5000 and keep its restrictions on tourists in an attempt to balance public support for -- and pressure from business groups. for more, we are joined by special advisor to the american chamber of commerce in japan, and the business groups president. acc j represents over 3000 members from 600 companies. i'll come you both to daybreak asia. let me start with christopher,
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give us an assessment of how you feel and the rest of the acc j about the recent measures by the government. >> we are very encouraged that the government is planning to take steps to end the very tough restrictions that they have had on entry of foreigners into the country. this, we think, is a wise decision based on what we are seeing around the world. which is that basically those sorts of tough border controls ultimately do not work and we have to move on to other measures that are proving effective including vaccination and other efforts to treat the disease once it actually takes place. beyond that, obviously, looking around the globe, global tensions are rising and our economies are strained.
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we need japan, japan needs the world. >> what are you hearing from other members? what sort of conversations are business leaders having with the government in order to loosen these restrictions even further? >> ultimately, it is a series of choices we have to make as businesses in terms of where we put down supply chains and where we make our regional headquarters, and anything no matter what the cause that makes it more challenging. in a competitive environment, that has not worked well for member companies here in tokyo. haidi: chris, is there concerned that is -- if there is a new variant or if vaccine efficacy wears off that this reopening is conditional? that requirements can change again? >> global policies around the
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world are always conditional on what is going to happen with the pandemic. we have to be alert to a change is necessary but we have seen a progression over the past two years that underlines the wisdom of moving forward to a different policy that takes full advantage of the new treatments and technologies we have available to address this threat. while trying to maintain our economies. haidi: when it comes to the longer-term visions of japan, recent studies have shown the country needs to quadruple its foreign migrant entry by 2022 to meet growth targets. do you see this happening? what can make this easier given that foreign talent and migration has been such a difficult topic for the country? >> you make a great point. in the service of our member
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companies that in many cases are unable to bring in foreign talent, only 3% of the time have we found local talent to fill the role. it is not just a management discussion, it is about specialized skill. europe and the united states are key regions that invest in japan, both capital, talent and technology. not able to bring that into the country for an extended period, especially when there are options around the globe, is making the outlook more difficult. >> so, what is the biggest change japan needs right now? >> absolutely come of the steps in front of us to open the borders, to get more in line with the rest of the world is an excellent first step and it is good. there's legislation on the horizon dealing with economic security will -- we hope will be things that are conducive to transparency across regions. cross regions.
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>> undoubtedly to start opening the borders is critical. beyond that, further strengthening cooperation with the united states in japan's other key economic partners is going to be very important. i think we as a chamber encourage that, at least for the united states, the biden administration is looking for new ways to expand cooperation with its key partners and allies across the indo pacific region. shery: what do you think about the new capitalism policies? do you see them as effectively leading japan into a growth revival? >> that would certainly be an encouraging step forward. the focus on raising wages and
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japan is quite understandable given that wages have stagnated basically in japan relative to its major partners over the last 20 to 30 years. there is certainly room to move forward in that area. however at the same time it is going to be critical that the government pursue progrowth structural reform policies, which fundamentally other key -- are the key to raising productivity, and ultimately wages. shery: in the same vein, when it comes to new capitalism and the prime minister's vision for japan, is it at all worrisome that that might include higher corporate taxes? and perhaps higher wages that could really have more pressure on business margins? >> i think a better way to look at it is transparency in what the process is so that
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businesses can make clearer decisions and also a level playing field that does not exclude u.s. industries from participating in those markets. furthermore, standards that are in line with what the u.s. does are important because businesses know how to operate in those settings. i think those are the keys to operating growth in getting both our economies moving together. >> some of the policies put in place during the pandemic era in terms of foreigners blocking from returning to japan have been heavily criticized. what changes you think need to be made from a policy perspective to greater encourage the idea that japan is an international financial hub that is capable of attracting and retaining foreign talent? >> there are two immediate focus from our standpoint. first, the numbers. the government is planning to raise the daily arrivals from
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3500 to 5000 today. but that is going to encompass not only possible new entrants from overseas, but also japanese and foreign residents of japan who, under the current system, are able to travel. you're actually looking at a fairly small portion of that 5000 that is going to be addressing the outstanding need -- japan on the parts of students and families. looking at those numbers and adjusting them, depending on what the demand is, is going to be critical. the other side is going to be how smoothly those numbers can be processed. japan when it first announced an opening policy last november, one that it had to walk back three weeks later, at that time it erected a paper nightmare of
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bureaucratic nonsense. those need to be streamlined and put into this effort as necessary to process all those people. >> it was hat -- good having you inside, special advisor and -- president of the american chamber of commerce in japan. it was great having you both. you can get more from this conversation available to all bloomberg subscribers. turn in every week to hear more from the leading names.
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>> softbank urging a block of credit suisse. the swiss bank is preparing a lawsuit to recover millions of dollars in losses and had won a court order permitting it to seek internal documents from the tokyo-based firm. softbank halls to a fishing expedition and a desperate attempt to deflect responsibility. tesla -- germany over its auto policy.
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the motor vehicle agency is reportedly investigating and whether it is approved for use in europe. tesla is also under investigation in the u.s., a second inquiry into a possible defect began last week. -- asset management is looking to raise $25 billion for its next flagship enterprise funds. for field has begun marketing the fund which makes -- according to a source. -- is forecast to jump on most $1.9 trillion by 2026. gx logistics -- for $1.3 billion. in a deal that would combine the two global supply chain giants. the offer is currently valued at -- a share. six dollars 90 in cash. >> -- unanimously recommends. haidi: we are watching the korea
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and japan. these are the stocks we are keeping an eye on. korean chipmakers are in focus. i did see rising prices -- for pc chips. we're are also watching -- industries. they are among the key new additions to the ftse global index series for a large-cap stock. we saw a big gains in a previous session for the stocks and we will continue to watch them at the open in japan and south korea. take a look at how we are setting up. we are seeing downside pressure for u.s. futures. nasdaq 100 futures down more than 1% at the moment after the nasdaq composite entered that -- territory with bearish signals. given this really -- a run to safety. we saw u.s. stocks dropping. the -- 100 is being led lower by tech and consumer discretionary
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stocks well qe stocks falling for a second session. we're watching key rate decisions here in asia including the be ok later this week. nikkei futures pointing to downside. we are seeing them down more than 1.5%. we continue to use -- lose ground at the open, that would be a ferris session -- a fair assessment. gigi b their losses after -- sale but we continue to see the global rise in the global rise in yields becoming a trend. coffee futures pointing downwards after three sessions of gains. we have seen those numbers helping south korea. we are expecting those first 20 days straight numbers coming up as well. haidi: also coming up, head of -- research tells us what he is buying the dip on china and hong kong. later, we speak to regina it.
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♪ >> welcome to daybreak asia from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york. haidi: asia's major markets have just opened for trade. our top stories this hour, asian stocks open to growing calls for a fed hike to counter inflation. also weighing big risk in eastern europe. the u.s. warns russia -- is beyond the ukrainian capital. moscow says troops will remain
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in belarus indefinitely. we speak to regina ip about covid testing. shery: we are getting the south korean 20 day trade numbers for the first 20 days of the month. we are getting those export numbers coming in at growth of 13.1% for the first 20 days of february. import numbers growth of 12.9% for february. both numbers easing from the previous month. remember, we have had the biggest trade deficit and south korea in three decades giving the rise and cost of fuel experts -- exports. we are seeing these numbers also starting to ease. this as we have had double digit growth in the export numbers in south korea for quite a while. if you break down the number when it comes to the daily average export numbers for the first 20 days, growth of 17.2%.
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in terms of regions, china rising -- exports to the u.s. rising about 7% year on year. this is the market action in korea right now. downside pressure at the open after three sessions of gains already. for the coffee consolidation as well. when it comes to the korean yuan losing ground against the u.s. dollar, we have seen strength last week, given the government partially relaxed some social distancing rules despite new records on coronavirus cases in south korea as the country starts to live with covid. take a look at the opening japan, downside pressure on the nikkei just being led lower by consumer discretionary and health care stocks. the dashes down just as much. the japanese yen holding steady at the 114 level, towards 115. we saw a bit of strength on the japanese yen to a two week high
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against the u.s. dollar last week. we are watching jgb because we had seen them halt their losses after a strong 20 year sale last week, but we are keeping a close eye on rising yields. haidi: we are seeing that demand when it comes to both treasury futures as well. the australian -- as well seeing gains. the aussie 10 year yield trading at 2.197. we are seeing what it comes to the broader equity session, quite a lot of risk off. nasdaq futures low. technology shares bearing the brunt of that selloff. health care seeing big losses in australia as well. in new zealand, models losses in a week that is likely to bring more tightening from the -- and when it comes today we are looking at those prime rights, they are expected to remain unchanged in february.
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we did see banks lower their quotes in january. also taking a look at yields and it comes to the new zealand 10 year at the moment. also seeing a little bit of a move there. take a look at treasury futures. we continue to see them move when it comes to treasuries as well as the bond market more broadly in asia. we look to see these flows into safe havens climbing after this reiteration of the ukraine threat. we are hearing diplomacy efforts will continue but after the national security council meeting over the weekend, hearing from president biden saying he believes that russia has made up their mind when it comes to the invasion. s&p futures looking like they are going to start off on the back foot, .6%. we are seeing resilience when it comes to the crude market. they are up over $92 a barrel. and watching gold futures as well as part of the overall haven story.
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shery: our next guest has increased exposure to hong kong banks despite the property and rig torrey uncertainty of the country. let's bring in bnp paribas ahead of equity research. it is great to have you back. is this a value play? given that we continue to see more signs of this cash crunch in the properties sector? not to mention we really have no clue about what other regulatory crackdowns we could see inditex sector. >> thank you for having me. very good morning to you and our viewers. you are right in saying the properties sector cash crunch continues. so do the regulatory uncertainty. one would like to believe that the worst of regulatory pressures are behind us. but, last week's development on some of the delivery companies kind of belies that point. what we do like about china, and
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specifically the -- banks are two points. number one, there is a clear policy shift in china in favor of growth support. that is something new which we began to see last year. that -- we are concerned the -- currently on chinese industrials and consumer discretionary. we will possibly maintain that for now. as far as the hong kong banks are concerned, the yield assent is a clear tailwind heard net interest margins. we have seen how the hong kong banks, korean banks, singapore banks have a hate. there is strong expectation of margins increasing and we think that tail the attached tailwind is likely to last. >> when it comes to the chinese yuan, we have seen resilience despite the fact we continue to see the suggestion that there might be divergence in their
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monetary policies. where do you see the currency going? >> this money policy divergences the topic of the discussion no doubt. we have already seen that with the pboc reducing interest rates and fed liking the other way around. but we think that in the median -- medium-term, china's surpluses a stronger variable in influencing china's currency than the divergence. in fact, this tug-of-war between monetary policy divergence and the trade deficit is also visible in another market, korea. trade surplus actually turned and trade desolate -- deficit. monetary policies are similar in terms of direction, but that really isn't helping the korean currency. it is the trade deficit that is exerting stronger pressure on
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the korean currency. i think this is something we have to look forward to. we think the chinese currency will remain stable for now. we have a target in the range of 6.3 to 6.4 for the foreseeable time period. haidi: how does that inform opportunities you see in the south korean equity market? >> we are overweight korea. despite the pressure on the currency i just talked about. we think that korean tack hardware is clearly benefiting from the chip prices and -- prices increasing. the demand in that particular segment is likely to remain for now. the korean banks, the second-most important sector over there, they are benefiting because of expectations of net interest markets increasing the banks guidance about their lending growth. that has also been quite satisfactory. quite a surprise compared to
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previous years. these are the two large pockets we are present in in korea as far as asian market -- is concerned. i think that will continue for now. haidi: so contrary and overweight on india, do you think the -- has been overdone and there is no opportunity to get back in? >> we think the indian market, despite being overvalued, being at eight premium valuation, is actually growth supported. if one looks at the consensus, earnings growth estimates in 2022 and 2023 is handsomely higher than the asian peers. equity estimates are all old -- also significantly higher in dot plots -- at the same time we think the market is in an early
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stage of economic recovery. there have been quite a few supply-side measures put in by the government of india. we think they are going to have influence on the catholic cycle going forward. we have a constructive chance in india for now. we have been overweight for some time and will continue with that stance. selling we think has been influenced by a consideration of the fed rate increases and there is a concern that the currency would possibly depreciate. one has to remember that the reserves in india have grown to such an extent that foreign debt and even trade deficit increases where -- were a strong enough cushion. >> is it inevitable to be constructive right now? we are hearing from the japanese prime minister saying he won't rule out any options and tackling oil prices with ukraine tensions. how has that changed your view on the energy sector so far?
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>> in the near to medium term, there does not seem to be any alternative. one has to be overweight on energy stocks, particularly the prevention stocks. the combination of global demand. -- influencing oil prices and geopolitical tensions, these two factors seem we are unable to get away from them. we do have significant exposure to the energy stocks, particularly in china, but also southeast asia. haidi: always great to have you with us. bnp paribas us head of equity research. take a look at the big movers we are watching. agl making headlines for her energy giant has projected the multibillion-dollar takeover bid from brookfield management,
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saying the seven dollar 50. -- $7.50 aussie purchase undervalues the company and is not in the best interest of shareholders. they have come under immense criticism by campaigners with plans to bring forward the decommissioning of two giant coal plants. we will wait to see with the next installment of the story is. -- still underperforming the under -- the other direction. elevated risks from the pandemic related impact on operations, supply chain issues, demand volatility in steel prices. and the current geopolitical environmental causing jitters when it comes to broader re-sentiment. let's get you to vonnie quinn. vonnie: thank you. china's securities regulator vowing to do more to deepen reform in the debt markets. in a statement, the securities regulatory commission highlighted plans to examine
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bond issuance, registration and to open up further to foreign investments. china could see another record year in 2022 driven by the ongoing debt crisis in the properties sector. indonesia central bank may start selling government bonds both to support stimulus spending during the pandemic. they used so-called burden sharing programs to allow direct purchases of $58 billion worth over three years. such programs are controversial because they can edge out foreign investors. -- governor told bloomberg about potential plants to unwind debt monetization from next year. >> if in the future, debt will be the supply of government bond as compared to demand from forint -- [indiscernible] if the supply is limited, we will be -- to also raising -- our government bond.
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i think that will be the faucet future. funny because winter olympics have ended with a record number of medals for china. the country bank 15, ranking third behind norway and germany. one place ahead of the u.s. the games attracted a huge number of television viewers domestically, however they could go down as the least watched olympics in history in the international audience. prime minister boris johnson intends to add remaining virus restrictions. johnson said it was time to cease state mandates, urging to lay out a planned this week for living with covid. it is despite opposition from public health experts as the u.k. continues to see tens of thousands of infections a day. johnson's comments came hours before queen elizabeth the second tested positive for covid-19. hong kong is considering stricter measures to stem an escalating covert outbreak. measures could include random
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police checks on fascination status as well as further limits to dining and restaurants. hong kong reported more than 6000 infections as experts for mainland china arrived to help build quarantine facilities. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is been very. haidi: still, a stricter covid -- in store for hong kong. regina -- regina ip tells us how the city plans a mast ending mandate. different picture in australia as the nation reopens its international borders. -- is at sydney airport today. >> a buoyant mood here. the band behind me. [indiscernible]
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>> i don't think it presents any specific short-term problems. the problem would come if there was something more serious in terms of conflict. i do not think the geopolitics specifically account -- talking about the russia-ukraine conflict -- i don't think that accounts for a huge amount of price premium at the moment. eitan co. russian troops currently have ukraine surrounded from belarus along the border.
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and to the black sea in the south. all of its borders. we have reason to believe that russian forces intend to attack ukraine in the coming week. the coming days. shery: president biden -- on the situation in ukraine. haidi: the u.s. warning russia may target multiple cities in ukraine as russia and belarus extend military drills that were supposed to end sunday. let's bring in bruce einhorn. what is happening with the truth -- troop activity and belarus right now? >> we had been talking all last week about how sunday was the date to watch. that was when the exercises were supposed to conclude and both russia and belarus had said russian troops would not remain after that. now things have changed. russia and belarus have no said that they will extend their
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joint drills and that russian troops will remain in belarus indefinitely. the belarus and defense minister said the two countries have traded a rapid response force, and has said that while the presidents of the two countries have said they do not want war, they say the other side is not lessening. -- not listening. countries nearby such as lithuania are warning about this latest change and say that this is indication that an attack on ukraine is imminent. something russia has denied. shery: in the meantime we continue to see leaders trying to push those diplomatic efforts on tensions there. what are we seeing in terms of more conversations and meetings we can expect? >> we know that french president macron spoke with putin
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yesterday on a phone call. they agreed that they were going to need more talks. today, the russian foreign minister and french foreign minister are said to be speaking. a french official said one thing that came out in the meeting between the two presidents yesterday is that there would be further talks among russia, ukraine and the organization for security and cooperation in new york. -- in europe. russia has not confirmed those talks yet. shery: bruce einhorn with the latest on tensions with ukraine. you can get more on the situation and a round up of the stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak. more ahead.
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shery: -- expected to remain unchanged in february with bloomberg intelligence forecasting the one your reference rate for short-term loans for companies to stay at three point 7% after a 10 basis point drop in january. the five-year lp auction state four point 6% after a five basis point decline. the record credit expansion in january may have reduced pressure on the pboc to guide rates down in the short-term. but rates are likely to fall in months ahead. haidi: pboc is monitoring closely the struggling real estate sector. -- properties is the latest developer to warn -- after a shocking reversal after being seen as a real beacon of
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strength. for more, let's bring in kevin kingsbury. i suppose this is really a lesson to not take for granted that there is any kind of too big to fail player here. >> we have been saying that for months. we just don't know where some of this hidden debt is with some of these developers. even companies that have been more strongly rated, which -- was investment grade rated, it has run into difficulties. it is a lot of unknowns still out there, despite what has been going on. there has not been as many defaults. we had one last week, -- which is part of another company that had its own debt troubles in december said last week it did not make certain bond interest payments. we seem to be getting back to this trouble spot we have been seeing for several months.
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shery: with bond yields climbing and making it much more expensive to refinance, how difficult a position that this puts all these property developers? -- at one point were really safe. who is next? >> it has just been -- yields have really made it difficult for companies to be able to refinance debt. chinese developers have sold very little as far as new debt so far this year. that trend continued from late last year where the high interest rates just kept it and made it difficult to near impossible for some of these smaller and weaker develop these to refinance debt. you would either have to pay it off or reach some sort of agreement. we have had some developers extend it. some have not. we were just running into some of these defaults. march is a big month for payments.
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february was relatively slow by comparison. we are going to see more payments come due in march. we could see quite a few more potential missed payments. shery: kevin kingsbury with the latest on china's property sector. here's a quick check of the latest business flash headlines per at softbank urging a u.s. judge to block credit suisse's push to obtain data over a dispute over a green sales capital collapse. the make is preparing a lawsuit to recover millions and losses and had won a court order permitting it to seek internal documents. softbank calls the move a fishing expedition and a desperate attempt to deflect responsibility. agl energy has rejected a joint bid to acquire the firmly -- led by brookfield management. the energy giant for says the offer of seven australian dollars and $.50 per share materially undervalues agl. up next, the head of australia's
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top industry group for tourism, aviation and transport sector says it may take years for travel to recover. this is bloomberg. ♪ at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will be met. supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity.
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♪ haidi: we are getting the latest. japan bank -- with services the preliminary number for february coming in at 42 point seven. a significant deterioration. lapsing into contractionary territory. the composite number, the preliminary number for february at 44.6, falling from .89 -- 49.9. manufacturing above the level of
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contraction but falling from 55.4. this as japan is also starting to lose -- loosen some restrictions when it comes to quarantine and visitor arrivals. there's no doubt we have seen manufacturing and business activity crimped by restrictions. shery: let's turn to monetary policy. we are seeing some unwinding on stimulus measures. bank indonesia governor has called on his global counterparts to coordinated -- coordinate this unwinding of stimulus as abrupt timing could unleash -- on the markets. -- spoke to -- and discusses outlook for the fed as well as factors for adjusting bank indonesia's policies. >> you need to understand, every -- and making monetary policy
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needs to be based on information. we are pleased that the fed are doing so and are well calibrated so that the market understands and also the federal bank -- [indiscernible] -- already being priced in by the market. the u.s. treasury increased to 1.8%. also, -- also -- to make our also more -- and government bond -- [indiscernible]
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>> so, you are keeping your estimate of a 100 basis point by the fed? >> we do believe -- but of course we will listen carefully to what the fed will be communicating. >> the fed has said it is willing to hike rates as many times as needed to combat inflation. are you ready to hike rates? >> while our -- is holding at 3.5% because of -- [indiscernible] the fundamentals of inflation is still -- [indiscernible]
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-- and our commitment. all are positive for --. that is i think the signal i want to send to you. shery: bank of indonesia governor speaking exclusively to bloomberg. take a look at some movers in japan because we are seeing big downside, falling in the double digits. it is in talks to buy a -- display. we know sharp owns 20% of this company and is seeking to acquire 80%. reasons including future prospects of displaced applications. it seems investors are not taking it too kindly. -- heavy at the moment, falling by the most in about 18 months. it was -- to hold at jefferies
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with a price target of $3000. -- also at the lowest, says november 2020 after being cut to neutral at s&p see. the price target, ¥2300. let's get the vonnie quinn with first rolled had quite -- headlines. vonnie: the u.s. said to be telling allies that russia could potentially target multiple cities in ukraine. sources say beyond the capital of kiev, targets may include the northeast, and odessa in the south. sources say the u.s. -- by inside -- of russian forces near ukraine. the crim on has repeatedly denied plans to invade. russia and belarus extending their biggest joint military drill in a year. the training exercises were scheduled to finish sunday. belarus cited eastern ukraine's deteriorating situation for the extension. officials pointed to increase military action in the area.
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meanwhile, volodymyr zelensky has called on allies in the west to do more after delivering a speech at the munich security conference. auto up police have dislodged protesters from the streets in front of canada's parliament building, clearing the center of a week's long blockade that paralyzed the downtown. 170 people were arrested as police intensified their actions, deploying pepper spray. -- say the operation has not been completed, some protesters remain encamped on other downtown streets. australia is reopening its borders to double vaccinated visitors after almost two years of strict travel bans. starting monday, tourists who received boosters will be allowed to enter the country after the government scrapped its zero covid policy last year. australia's minister for trade and tourism says the move will give a much-needed use to the economy. >> it is huge for australia.
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660 thousand people employed in our tourism industry, obviously it has been a difficult two years but it is party central at sydney airport. we are open fully to the rest of the world editors rate news, great to see the excitement. i think it all goes well for our tourism industry, rebounding very strongly. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. haidi: let's stay with australia's reopening, a long-awaited day for the tourism sector which employed about 5% of the nation's workforce and contributor 3% of the economy prior to the pandemic. -- has been at sydney airport, the first of 20 flights do into the harbor city today, touching down. >> we had the first flight from los angeles. earlier this morning. they are happy, emotional scenes
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at the airport as people reunite for the first time. travelers can now arrive into australia without quarantine if they are double vaccinated. even if they are on vaccinated, seven days of quarantine. to describe the importance of this milestone we have maggie osborne. -- maggie osmond, beg your pardon. maggie, we heard from tourism and investment minister, describing just how important this is for the tourism industry. tourists wanting to come to australia, how confident can they be that things are not going to change again? >> absolutely. anybody who is contemplating a trip to australia at the moment can be certain the borders are going to stay open. i think probably some of the more challenging issues for australia will be things like aviation, many of our international flyers have either lessens the number of roots they are flying, or have in fact
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taken their planes elsewhere in the world and have already begun to travel. >> there are a number of challenges around this reopening. the one we just described, also the tourism industry having to attract staff, it very tight labor market. talk to us about how the industry plans to address these concerns. >> critical to it is getting international students and backpackers into australia. younger people tend to be the first to travel into the most resilient travelers. we are likely to see many of them back soon. but, the problem is not unique to australia. across the world, the tourism industry has lost a whole generation of skilled workers because people didn't see a longer-term career in the industry. all around the world, people are working hard to get those back into the tourism industry. the other solution is longer-term in terms of training euro locally.
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in the short-term, most of the -- much of the solution for us is going to be about immigration. haidi: do we manage expectations in terms of how quickly activity can ramp up given the two major inbound destinations of china and new zealand will not be sending visitors in the short or medium term? >> our number one and number two markets previously had been china new zealand. neither of which are in the mix at the moment. -- marketing agencies have not been sitting around twiddling their thumbs. they are very focused on those markets that are going to be available. the u.k., europe, parts of north america. that is where much of the advertising and marketing will be focused. incredibly tight and tough tourism marketing at the moment of course because it is a cutthroat business. every country in the world is looking to get leisure tourists back. >> how was australia going to
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get a competitive edge against those other countries that are easing restrictions for the same tourists? especially when australia is so far away from these countries? >> it is not that far from parts of the u.s.. obviously the government just announced $40 million campaign, just a toe in the water exercise more than anything else. i think will -- it will be a case of watch this space. we are seeing a surge in bookings for major airlines and accommodations through travel agencies here, but most of those are for the second half of the year. not as simple as turning on the tap. it will take many months to get us up and running. and then it could take years to get back to pre-pandemic levels. >> a long way to go yet, maggie. australia is not fully reopened yet.
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there is still a matter of the cruise industry. how long before we see cruise ships in australia's harbors? >> much more hopeful that i would have been had you asked me a month ago. it is quite frankly ludicrous. what we now have is a working group of the seaboard states and the industry to come up with a working plan. the local government has until the middle of april before they review the decision again. there is a mechanism that will allow early -- if it arrives in the next week or two, which i think is likely. australians love to cruise. [laughter] haidi: maggie osmond, great to have you with us. my take away from that is we are not that far away. even if we are, it is worth it for a visit. shery: for someone who doesn't
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like to fly. it feels like a long way. [laughter] >> if you had been at sydney airport this morning, you have that she would have gotten one of these. shery: a little bit of a gift. [laughter] haidi: come visit while we have still got cut while those, given they are endangered. in the next hour, we will be speaking to -- about the latest income missed estimates. up next from sydney to hong kong, we are speaking to lawmakers about the cities much criticized covid measures and the postponed election. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: hong kong considering stricter social distancing measures to curtail a covert outbreak that has trained hospitals and posed inadequate health infrastructure. let's crossover to stephen engle, standing by with our next guest. stephen: thanks. i read guest this hour is regina ip, founder of the new people's party and member of carrie lam's executive council. that effective cabinet of the
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chief executive and she joins us on the line from hong kong. thanks for your time. i need to get right to it. obviously hong kong had lots of successes in the early part of the pandemic. now the hospital system is in crisis. how did hong kong squander that edge it had over the first couple of years? >> first of all, our hospital system has always been under stress. our people have a habit of rushing to the emergency ward if they have the flu or other illnesses. we have an aging population. a lot of resources in the hospitals are devoted to carrying for elderly patients with chronic illnesses anyway. when omicron struck hong kong and spread rapidly, their hospitals became overwhelmed. this is as experts have
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predicted. >> i would like to read you a quote from your former -- go ahead. >> sorry. stephen: let me just read you a quote from -- formerly of the new people's party. he said, "my impression is the hong kong government has been playing it by ear instead of planning ahead." did the government of carrie lam get caught off guard? >> i think when first omicron got into hong kong in late december, omicron was declared a variant of concern in late november. our people had been watching. and then we had the first case in late december. in early january, the chief executive already announced going straight to tough social distancing measures.
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of course, our government overlooked some details. for example, although we clamped down on opening hours of restaurants and beauty salons, cinemas and all of that, we overlooked the need to clamp down on temples, chinese temples, flower markets through chinese new year. tens of thousands of people in these markets, the -- while we were shutting down restaurants in the evening. i think looking back, our measures were not tough enough. we had not been able to reopen our boundary with mainland china even after 80 days of zero covid. because we were not sufficiently aligned with the mainland. not that we were too tough, but not sufficiently aligned.
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stephen: are you advocating tougher restrictions giving we had 6000 new infections each of the last couple of days? it has hot -- it has not peaked. are you one of those advisers saying we need tougher restrictions? >> i have always advocated a more effective contact tracking device. like singapore. our -- has -- function. it is too late to deploy 10,000 this upland service members and cid's to track contact. too many cases now. mainland reinforcements have poured in. at least 200 experts, very senior health experts, workers, laboratory assistants and all of that. they are building new treatment
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and isolation facilities for us where the terminal is located. we expect the situation to be brought under control in about two months so that we can get on with the chief executive election. stephen: as far as the zero covid strategy, there's a lot of criticism, and you have heard it all, that there is going to be tens of thousands, even the university of hong kong top epidemiologist is saying yes, this mass testing campaign could uncover upwards of 100,000 new infections, but where do you put them? you can't build these facilities quick enough. does that also make it a bit futile when most of these cases are either a symptomatically or very mild? >> the health authorities have been refining the rules for
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hospital admissions. people with very mild symptoms who have had two jabs like my driver, he has almost recovered at home. the only trouble is he has spread it to his family. the government today has placed full-page advertisements telling people under what conditions you can stay at home with mild symptoms. just like what they do in australia. unless you have breathing problems, continuous vomiting and all of that. we have -- new treatment and recovery facilities for people with mild symptoms. i think it can be done and we should be able to stabilize the situation in two months time. maybe not zero covid, but the level should be brought back to a much lower level so that we can get on with the chief executive election. stephen: i think most people in
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this city don't care about the chief executive election, they want to get on with their lives. the business community wants to get on with their lives. after two months if we have gotten this way of under control and we are already approaching that threshold of 90% vaccination rate for first inoculations, can we start having a plan and an exit strategy for opening up to the world as an international finance center? much like what australia has been hyping right before this interview? >> you are right. we need a plan a date timeline and roadmap. our top priority must be to reopen our boundary with mainland china. not just for business reasons, but humanitarian reasons. lots of families have been split. we need to align our measures
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much more with the mainland. in contact tracing and detection and effective treatment. after this spell of fighting covid, we must move toward adopting a health code which can be aligned with mainland health codes so that we can reopen with mainland china. after all, we are supposed to be a city ideal for doing business with china. and then progressively open up with the rest of the world. we try to open up with singapore. stephen: we have tried bubbles with singapore before but it does not seem to be able to pull that one off, or with other places as well, as businesses are hurting. we would love to get you back on again in the coming weeks as we get closer to what you are saying is potentially the subsiding of this outbreak in
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the next couple of months. regina ip, member of the executive council of carrie lam and the founder of the new people's party in hong kong. thanks for your time. back to you. haidi: over the weekend we saw the closing ceremony of the beijing winter all the big games. this marks a second pandemic our olympic games. what a ride it has been. china claiming this as a victory. they came in third on the medals. a record for the country. nine gold. we know two gold and one silver had been won by -- which was really one of the big stories of the olympics. at the same time, we had a lot of political controversy. the russian skater scandal. it certainly was not a doll couple of weeks. shery: it is a great state for female athletes. women dominating team usa's medal count. 17 medals earned by women.
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