creating an aggressive move. >> volatility reflects market participation. >> now you may have some clarity coming after the actions of the russian government. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz. jonathan: she is full-time? i hope she is part-time. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan arrow. futures back 0.7%. tom: the nasdaq 100 down 16-ish %. maybe not as inflammatory as what everybody is waking up to.

more important is the movement of two standard deviations. we are not at a correction, but negative 10% is negative 10%. jonathan: secretary blinken canceling his meeting with lavrov. what is next from here? tom: what is next is how will mr. payton respond -- mr. putin respond? the natural gas price based out of the netherlands is not what it was at the beginning of the year, but it is here to chile relevant -- usually elevated. jonathan: that address from the president yesterday, to defend freedom abroad. what are they going to do to offset this? a deal with iran?

a tax holiday on gas? lisa: i am not getting a cohesive message. where is the cohesive message around domestic energy? what is the plan to move away from russian gas at a time when europe cannot make up for what russia supplied? jonathan: bond yields higher around the world. it started in new zealand. we got a .5 basis point hike. the endpoint went from 250 -- from 2.5% to 3%. lisa: at what point does the fed follow? one of the key questions is that the issue we are seeing between russia and ukraine accelerate potential rate hikes? -- it is inflationary if you see

oil prices rise. tom: john, never change. jonathan: they say it like that in new zealand. futures higher by 0.75%. yesterday it rough, really volatile. a nice bounce. up 0.7% on the s&p. yields higher. president daly later. tom: her flattening is important. lisa: rate hikes are not going to the to a longer cycle, even if the new zealand central bank is looking at a higher end rate, we are not seeing it in the u.s.

aside from mary daly, we are also going to get the ukrainian president holding a news conference. how much are they concerned about the lack of strict action by the u.s., bite europe? u.s. sanctions were thought to be soft. how much do you get pushback from the ukrainian president ring out and saying, is that enough? then we get a nato secretary talking about nato's future coming together. canon germany stick to his guns about trying remain somewhat independent from russia and about nord stream 2 and not going further with that project? at 1:00 p.m., the treasury is -- 5-year note's. i find it interesting you're

talking about yield curves and yield curve buttoning. it is even the two fives. this is the joint question. if we bring forward rate hikes now, does that mean a shorter cycle, a quicker downturn, and end rate that is lower than what it could have went if the hikes were less? jonathan: lisa, welcome back. we missed you. lisa: i am not part-time. jonathan: just making sure. joining us now is alfred. crude was in the 90's over the last few weeks. the equity market down 10%. the tension recession in germany. how does the federal reserve handle this. >> the most important thing to remember is while we will be mindful of developments, -- the

moment you had material inflation, while they will be very mindful of the risks and geopolitical premiums getting thin, they cannot ignore the inflation problem at home. tom: with all your experience with the investment of the eu, what is the stability that you see? what is the level of stability in eu finance? >> what is really interesting is that after the fed meeting, the first time you are seeing some spread whitening. for a long time, that has been suppressed by european central banks. you are beginning to see

ventures. i would not say that is questioning the fabric area of itself, but it is a bit of a pivot. lisa: how much of a pivot does robert holtzman represent. they expect two rate hikes write the ecb? is this an outlier? elsa: he is definitely one of the more hawkish voices, but what i found interesting is you have one of the known hawks saying we make it to neutral by 2024. you contrast that to the rv and fed and getting to neutral a lot sooner at 3.4%. i do think there are so white large differences across g10 nations. jonathan: it is how far the

federal reserve will take this. what was interesting in new zealand is a shift that much that quickly. if we got that from the federal reserve, that would be a big shock. elsa: would be a surprise, but not when we should rule out altogether. when on look into the details of inflation, it is going up across the board, but people are overlooking fundamental differences in court inflation. u.s. and new zealand leading the pack. if you think about places where you may need rates to get to neutral or above, those would be your two most obvious candidates. jonathan: important conversation. thank you. i almost forget what to say when you have lived in america that long. tom: i take issue -- new zealand

has an economy the size of oklahoma or utah. it is a key democracy in southern asia and australia. i cannot remember is it to the right or left of australia? but it is a smaller country. they make movies, have sheep. they put out smart fx people like nick vandenburg. that is the great, but it is the size of oklahoma. jonathan: but as you look across the history of central banking, inflation targeting, where did it come from? when the central bank of new zealand punches above its weight. tom: mr. casman at jp morgan walking away from $150 a barrel on oil.

they walked through the supply coming on, including iran. a better time. jonathan: do we get an iran deal? does that change things. we spoke with anna edwards earlier. the big ceo of a big oil trading company, talking about a massive moves in demand and perhaps pushing crude to triple digits. that is a different conversation than a short-term supply jump. does it move the dial? does it move it over the next 12 months and beyond? tom: the media loves inflammatory statistics. risk has been walking back $150 a barrel oil. lisa: near-term, not seeing massive disruption. orchids are impatient, but it is unclear what could bring oil

prices substantially down. if oil prices stay where they are, how much of a shock is that? if you look at the inflationary impact and the ramifications on the fed, it is that going be easing monetary policy. we tried to get somewhere and got diverted and ended up coming home. do you really want to hear it? we will do it on the rake. we missed our flight, they cannot revoke us. we ended up in atlanta. jonathan: you were connecting in atlanta? why were you late for the flight? lisa: it was all human error. [laughter] jonathan: next up, lisa's travels. maybe we will catch up with anne-marie in d.c.

futures up 0.3%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: president biden's first round of sanctions on russia hit the market with a side. they targeted a pair of russian banks and three russian elite. members of congress from both parties say the white house should do more. 14 of russia's super rich have fallen. sanctions are likely to destroy even more wealth. -- heads the list of russian billionaires. almost a third of his wealth has disappeared this year. in hong kong, the government trying to offset the escalating

virus outbreak. eligible residents getting $100 in spending vouchers. authorities have already earmarked more than 2.5 billion for antivirus. apple has dropped its mask requirement at most retail stores across the u.s. following reduced covid-19 cases and changes in local mandates. apple is also ramping up for the return of indoor -- in-store classes. global news 24 hours a day on-air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am really. -- ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

president biden: this is the beginning of a russian invasion of ukraine. i am going to impose sanctions. jonathan: the president of the u.s., strong words from him. did the action it matched the words? that is where the criticism has been. tom: headline, the european union matches u.s. ban on russian bonds and sanctions. therese rafael, i have a tremendous respect.

johnson with a lot more parliamentary pizzazz than what we heard from the president. some say he did not punish in parliament yesterday. the sanctions were light. jonathan: left out the big ones, 300 individuals, some on the list for a long time. strong words, but where is the follow-up? lisa: this is the concern about some of the german proclamations, nord stream 2 not going forward they say they can be independent of russian oil. how do we get to a place where the actions actually are deterring to vladimir putin? jonathan: we do have a balance, up throw .6% on the s&p. nasdaq, up 2.9%. yields higher. tom: i am sure all of maryland

is emailing. when the great things we know of living in london, anne-marie porter and did not shift from z to zed. how did the president do? annmarie: many were expecting harsher sanctions, when things he did clarify is that would vladimir putin did over the weekend, the u.s. is considering further invasion of ukraine. the president made clear that this is tranche one. they have more tools. tom: euro have a different perspective, but i want to go delicately here to the statements not always a from leading politicians of the

paranoia of autocracy, the idea that p is not paranoid that -- vladimir putin is not paranoid but working with fears that are tangible. annmarie: let us call it what it is in terms of his reign over russia. since the breakup of the soviet union, he has four types changed the boundaries of those former states. in 2014, he recognized crimea and the next day, he annexed crimea. what he did over the weekend in recognizing self-proclaimed republics, that was the fourth time he has done this. what you can view from president putin, incentive getting into

his mind is studying actions. lisa: are we seeing more cohesion or the opposite? when it comes to action, nobody can agree on something more severe. everybody takes cosmetic measures. annmarie: except for olaf scholz. he helped the u.s. out yesterday. every official i either spoke to on the record or off work saying, we told you nord stream 2 was going to get benched if there was an invasion. the german economic minister is saying this does not mean it will never see the light of day, but at the moment, they are taking this political decision. there is already gas in the pipeline. it is just not turned on. this struck a chord with the russian. dmitry medvedev was there over the weekend at the meeting.

he said prepare europeans for a brave new world of higher energy costs. lisa: in the u.s., is there a similar message? president biden did not allow expedited oil permitting in the u.s. in response to what we have seen. why isn't there more support for domestic energy? annmarie: we have not heard a lot about that too much in the sense that a lot of the focuses on what is the next tranche of sanctions? bob mcnally said this administration is looking under a rock to get oil and fossil fuels to make sure that geopolitical concerns will not hit consumers at the pump. he says, why are they allowing federal, judicial branches to go

out and make it harder in terms of pipelines? tom: this is important. but john, you know that the series we followed is the t, zed, t commodity series. the short-term chart up since the 16th of february. the long-term chart shows angst as they look at the zte. jonathan: we test on this briefly. where do you think the focus is going to be now? is it a kosher deal with iran or to do something at home? annmarie: the cats holiday on gas is in limbo. once hunters come back, they will need some sort of agreement when it comes to putting pen to

paper. potentially in iran nuclear deal. what we are hearing out of tehran, the foreign minister is optimistic but critical. he says that redlines cannot be crossed. one red line is that if there is another nuclear agreement, it would have to be long, meaning if a future president that is a republican comes in, they cannot tear it out. that is not allowed in the u.s. it does seem like there is an optimistic tone, but if that is a redline that they will not cause, there not be any third deal. jonathan: annmarie, thank you. look out for annmarie later. catching up with the ukrainian foreign minister later this afternoon led by annmarie

hordern and around 3:30 eastern time. the nasdaq up 0.9%, bouncing back just a little bit from yesterday. yields approaching 2%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: down 10% on the close yesterday, correction territory. perhaps out of correction territory. the nasdaq up about one percentage point. a nice bounce back. maybe the dow yesterday was at the front end of the bond market. the yields were higher. as we were all talking about russia and ukraine must the response from the u.k., the european union, the u.s., 10 year yields capped climbing. what does that tell you? that conversation about basis points still there. it's not about the start point,

not about the speed of the journey. it is about the end point. that is why the new zealand decision was so interesting. the previous forecast showed 2.5 what we are just in the same way month? for a lot of people, that is where the comfort is. ultimately, they will not push it too far. that gives people just a little bit of comfort. tom: i am not a fan of the parlor game. i just think that with the correction territory is the idea that the news flow is the loss. -- the boss.

they are going to be data-dependent. jonathan: the parlor game is about the price, the consensus. the consensus at the moment is that they go five or six times in 22. ultimately, they pops. -- puace. the hawkish side comes -- tom: stop and pause. what is important and. in the bloomberg terminal is the track record of people. last year defeated the standard by 731 basis points. that is 7% plus outperformance. andrew simmons.

hope that you do that in 2021? andrew: what worked for us was most people on growth stocks and starting to increase exposure to owning energy and financials. the snp has become a growth index. tucking away from that and over weighing some of the value areas in a year where they are working , -- at the end of the 70's, the top 10 stocks were energy stocks. now the top 10 are tech stocks. it is a great opportunity for active management. tom: you published this morning

that what we are seeing in international relations is a buying opportunity. why is that? andrew: because if you look at 10% corrections, on average, 12 months later, you are up a lot, even if they morphed into worse than 10% corrections. about half become 15% corrections. a quarter of 10% corrections become 20% corrections, but even if you look out a year, it might get uglier earlier. a year later, you have been well served to step up. lisa: you were talking about active management. some big winners, i am thinking of energy. some big losers, i am thinking

of tech. what do you buy? andrew: i am changing my tune. last year, i kept saying the real highflying stocks are too expensive, but i do not think the quality growth stocks are as expensive. those highflying growth stocks have come down so much and the quality have held. now the pricing has shifted. the safer growth stocks, which are the mega cap tech stocks are more vulnerable, because the highflying growth stocks have been so trashed. the opportunity remains in the value stocks. if the fed was going to over tighten and kill the economy, difficult stocks would not be

outperforming. treasury yields would be dropping. there would be a gross rotation. that is not happening. that tells me that as much is the discussion of how much the fed is going to raise rates, probably not as much as some predictions, because the market is telling me to stick with economically sensitive stocks. lisa: a lot of people looking at the yield curve, which is contracting, and saying recession risk is real. wrote scares our real -- growth scares our real. how do you push against that? andrew: you are right. the yield curve yesterday came down a bit. usually, as it gets closer to

zero, it becomes tougher, more stubborn. we will have to see high-yield spreads. they have not blown out that much. i am still sticking to the value trade. i still think you see a much bigger rally in treasury yields than weeks out yesterday if in fact a recession is around the corner. the other thing i would push back is, did you know that the estimate for the s&p is higher today than at the beginning of the year. they are not going up at the same rate as before, but companies continue to do better than what was estimated. that is bullish. tom: but we have got to do something. andrew, how much cash you hold right now? people want to know.

andrew: i have heard you ask that before. i -- managers say, i do not like the market. i have raise cash. i find that is leading. the end of the day, if the market is down percent and you raise 5% cash, you are going to lose money. to suggest that if i raise cash, i will not lose any as an equity loan manager, that is misleading. no one is investing in my fund to go to 80% cash. i hope to do better on the downside been the markets, but i am investing. the only question is how much will investors panic and liquidate? tragically, that is normal.

the market drops and is much as i am saying, it is a buying opportunity, people hit the panic button. i suppose after today, we will see inflow. lisa: someone might come away saying, go all in on pinterest and twitter. is that your point? andrew: no. i think those stocks in general, the carnage is so great i would not recommend people to run out and sell them. i think they could bounce, but i do not think that is the big opportunity. i emma court manager. i still think it is in the cyclical stocks, because we are going to get more uglier inflation threats. yesterday, financials, the market got crushed. financials outperformed.

since the great financial crisis, every time the market went down, financials got destroyed, and they are leading in the downturn. i am heartened to see that even in the downturn, some of the cyclicals are leading. jonathan: one of the best. good to catch up. lisa, you mentioned a couple of tech names, facebook. we have kept that in half since early september. lisa: it is shocking if you look at some of the evaluations. andrew is talking about the tech giants that have held well. it is a select group. then you have these nonprofitable tech companies that have been pummeled. by the depth means something different when the dips are so varied across different sectors

i was looking at the energy stock sector. it is up 20% year to date on the s&p. jonathan: the s&p russia exposure 0.1%. tom: this is important, the different percentages from russia to us. not understood by a lot of people. jonathan: slower growth, slower spending, higher energy prices. it is those risks you need to gauge. futures bounce, it yields higher by three basis rains. 'bramo is back. that is good. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: russia's president says he is ready for a diplomatic

solution but only if russia's interest and security are guaranteed. he spoke after the u.s. and allies agreed on a first set of economic sanctions. the biden administration has delayed issuing permits for new oil and gas drilling on federal land. that could complicate efforts to keep guessing prices under control. they are poised to go over four dollars a gallon. a federal judge blocked the administration -- climate change. the estimated maternal mortality rate already high. now it has increased. the latest figures show almost 24 deaths for every 100,000 live births. that is more than double the rate in the u.k. and canada. in the u.k., police

investigating the so-called party gate scandal. boris johnson others being questioned. this is according to a document obtained by itv news. it focuses on a dozen events that allegedly broke lockdown rules. a wild ride over the next few days. huge swings in the stock index and a regulatory scrutiny. the chinese e-commerce giant expected to report a 60% drop in profits stay. -- thursday. global news 24 hours a day on-air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> now that we see the invasion beginning and russia has made

clear its rejection of diplomacy, it does not make sense to go forward with that meeting. i consulted with our allies. all agree. jonathan: secretary blinken canceling his meeting with sergey lavrov. futures bounce back on the s&p. yields higher by three basis points. this curve is flattered. the difference between twos and tense, 36 basis points. it gets narrower and narrower. lisa: yet people think the fed will take a signal from this and not move as aggressively. will higher prices change the equation? jonathan: will the situation in ukraine change anything? the consensus is no. tom: they will wait for the march 4 jobs report, cpi march

10. nate will make a decision on the 16th. jonathan: unity with allies the good news. the bad news is that these sanctions are lightweight. tom: -- give us a wonderful brief a number of days ago. we are thrilled to bring back tina fordham. tina, i read the putin speech. i mentioned about london and the bolsheviks. you go back to the 18th century and piece together what peter the great brought. how does putin go back to catherine the great? tina: we should interpret those remarks as aspirations. not giving away any secret

anticipating developments with russia. i am taking putin at face value. i never thought he was a chess grand master, but he has moved from somebody tactical to somebody concerned about legacy. tom: what do the soviet people want? would you suggest that the russian people parse between lenin and stalin or that the russian people care about empire? tina: we do not have good sources of public opinion data about what russian people think. they are concerned about what they hear on russia today and other domestic channels, which is that russian speakers of those so call regulate the public are being abused.

-- so-called breakaway republics are being abused. this notion that putin is trying to project, saying that ukraine is not a real country has been deconstructed. if you have not seen the speech yesterday at the u.n. from the kenyan ambassador, he talks about how if we are going to reconsider the sovereignty of every country that came out of empire, where do we start? kenya, other african nations came out of colonial borders, arbitrarily drawn, do not want to go there. that is the risk of what putin is talking about. that is why this is not just about these breakaway republics. jonathan: it is a global order.

we cannot respect sovereignty, we have no order. when is interesting to me is how effective these sanctions might be. i wonder how effective that might be. i watched the national security council meeting broadcast on russian tv. they did not seem like they were about to tell vladimir putin he should change course. do you think this will be effective to go after the people close to putin? tina: it is not enough, but they are also attempting to sequence the sanctions. to start with one wave, and the eu sanctions have gone further. the eu has sanctions all parliamentarians who supported this move. but if there is a full-blown

invasion, i think putin will go further. i do not by what we are seeing in some investment research that we are going to see de-escalation. you want to keep some powder dry , but what i think markets are not getting enough attention to -- and i listened with rate interest to the previous guest and the bullishness -- is the risk of a catastrophic incident. we are in the fog of war. russia has nuclear weapons. lisa: what are you advising clients to do? how do you factor in that risk that is becoming more real? tina: we've moved from a tail risk along time ago. i have been advising clients for years not to think in terms of a base case and tail risk but possible scenarios.

we need to test portfolios against that. i do not disagree that if anything a geopolitical risk incident may keep rates lower for longer, but not yet. i think the more worrying point is about supply disruption. the international system, how does it impact investor portfolios? russia has given a clear signal that it is not coming back into the fold of a that it does not really care about sanctions, and it is not a reliable partner. in my years of watching russia, this is a change in trend. we are not going back. jonathan: wonderful to catch up with you. tom, that line, we are in the fog of war. accidents can happen.

tom: it harkens back to what we remember from the 30's. it is a phrase that has huge residence. it was a victim of my childhood. i spoke. i want to apologize for conflating soviet with russian. it shows my vintage. i am sorry for misspeaking. we are at a point of shock. there is a certain thing about 1989-1992. i would go back into the yeltsin pivot, to the modern russia that brought us mr. putin. jonathan: futures with a balance of of 0.5%. yields higher by two or three basis points. this curve that was flatter, 36,

flatter, flattered. the federal reserve still has not hiked interest rates. going to be interesting to see how far they are willing to push this.

♪ >> investors are dealing with a trifecta of concerns and challenges. >> every single headline is creating an aggressive move in the futures. >> volatility reflects market participation. >> this is a short-term flight to safety. >> i think you may have some clarity coming after the actions of the russian government. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: stocks up, yields up. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up by 0.4%. the bounce fades a bit. the nasdaq up by 0.7%. correction territory at the close yesterday. tom: particularly currencies, look at