♪ >> investors are dealing with a trifecta of concerns and challenges. >> every single headline is creating an aggressive move in the futures. >> volatility reflects market participation. >> this is a short-term flight to safety. >> i think you may have some clarity coming after the actions of the russian government. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: stocks up, yields up. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures up by 0.4%. the bounce fades a bit. the nasdaq up by 0.7%. correction territory at the close yesterday. tom: particularly currencies, look at renminbi strengthening

out on strong yuan. the number i look at on the screen, 36.1 72. we have legitimate curve flattening this morning jonathan: south of 40 basis points as we go to this meeting next month. does that shape the views of anyone on the fomc? tom: we don't know what that meeting is going to be like right now. massive uncertainty. i don't mean that in a negative way, but massive uncertainty. they've got the jobs report and the inflation report, and frankly, the ism's early in the month. i can't believe i'm saying that. jonathan: it took me about 10 years, but i've got you on board to look at the ism. march 10 through the next cpi print. lisa:lisa: how important is it going to be after all the corporate earnings? people keep talking about the dynamism in corporate america, people who are still going out and spending even if they complain about the high prices. at what point does the fed take

a look at that granular corporate data and say people might be feeling kind of rotten, but they are still going out and buying? because of that, it is hard to see how this inflationary bent conveyed in the near term. jonathan: at what point do we pivot and look through a different lens and start to say that could eat away at demand? lisa: this has been the big question. at what point do higher prices lower prices because it comes consumer demand? we have not seen it yet. that i think is the big takeaway from retail sales and a lot of the retailer results that have shown record gains. jonathan: the fog of war, some really strong words from tina fordham in the last hour. "accidents can happen," she kept saying. she was very focused on what would happen next. tom: david westin watching this morning. this is way too early for westin. jonathan: westin is awake?

tom: he says this is what tina is talking about, the prussian theorist from the early 19 sensory -- from the early 19th century, they need to be especially acute now. that is the skill set that is most difficult. jonathan: boris johnson saying the u.k. is to provide further military aid to ukraine. pmq is taking place right now. we bring you the headlines they pour in. looking forward to "balance of power" later this money. futures up on the s&p 0.4%. on the nasdaq, 0.8 percent. yields higher by two or three basis points, picking up on what is happening. the distance between twos and tens is narrower. lisa: how much does this lead to a shift in what we see from the federal reserve? do they shrug it off, which is a distortion of markets that have

been heavily influence to central banks? today we hear from ukrainian president a lot of your zelensky -- president volodymyr zelensky. how much does he slam the tepid response we have heard from allies? we are hearing from the lithuanian and polish presidents. how long do we continue to see unity versus some crumbling of that unity as actions have to take more of the forefront rather than just harsh words. at 11:00 a.m., we hear from nato secretary-general jens stoughton berg and dutch resident mark rutte. how much is there behind even the german assertion that they are going to not move forward on nord stream 2? does it matter? is there any hard talk backing up some of the softer measures so far? the treasury apartment -- the treasury department is selling five year yields.

we end where we began, the flattening yield curve. is this a signal, is this noise? you're seeing it across the entire spectrum of yield curves. the gap between five-year year end two year treasury yields has narrowed to the least going back to the end of 2020. how much does this indicate that the fed is going to make an error and hike into weakness, especially with higher oil prices? jonathan: thank you. stuart kaiser with us now, the head of equity derivative research at ubs. not all 10% corrections are created equally. the difference between one you want to buy and one you want to run away from, run us through it from your perspective. stuart: i think in this case we are being very patient, very cautious about the markets. we expected it need first half of the year to be highly volatile with a lot of risks. if you look at the calendar for the next three to four weeks, it is hard to find a soft spot where you would be comfortable re-engaging in the markets. from our perspective, it is not

time to buy this dip because i think you will get more bites of the apple at levels similar to this over the next month or two. jonathan: big focus on tech. caught up with morgan stanley. why would the banks be up if we are all worried about a slow down in the growth taking it too far? stuart: i think this debate is what is going to drive the market higher and lower. we have seen both sides of that coin. when it was inflation risk and rates driving the market, you had a different mix of sector leadership, but this russia-ukraine is more of a traditional risk off where chaya bader stuff is getting sold in general. so you can be long banks and some selective, cyclical parts of the market. if you are worried about this existential stuff coming out of europe, i don't think you want to own anything with beta. that has whipped the market a

little bit around. the market has priced them in a very different way. we are remaining fairly cautious. zero edge on what is going to happen in ukraine. i think it is a read and react market, and that is another reason why i think people have been slow to reengage with risk. tom: part of this on the technical aspect and the cross moments of the derivatives space is the idea of catharsis. how do you look for catharsis as you look at this as bending markets? stuart: i don't think we have seen it yet. i don't feel it we have had that day where it felt like everybody was selling everything and throwing the kitchen sink at it. tom: do we need that for it to reverse and go higher? stuart: i think we do need that. you are also in the middle of a fed regime shift. typically when you shift regimes, things behave in a wonky fashion. you are still in a bent,

haven't broken mode. we don't think you have had that cathartic moment yet. lisa: if you don't buy this dip, what are you holding? stuart: holding onto the arms of the chair, for the most part. i think what we have seen investors doing is holding cash. a lot of risk has been taken down in the market. hedging is pretty full, so people have been owning put options on various assets, whether that is high-yield credit, u.s. equities. i think prior to this ukraine issue, people were holding energy and banks on the view that energy prices were going higher and rates were moving higher. i think the ukraine situation throws another wrench in this manner -- in the spanner because it changes market leadership. so you are running low risk, hoping that this ukraine thing passes and you can get back to the trade that i think start of the year, which was yield

higher, banks higher, energy higher. jonathan: do you think it is helps the energy players on the s&p? stuart: it seems to have in the sense that the supply response on the energy side has been slower than you would have expected a couple of years ago. if we are talking about europe in particular, the number one risk a lot of investors see is the energy situation. i don't want to say they are facing energy shortages, but the demand is going to be much higher because you have cost supply from russia and they have walked away from things like nuclear that would have been able to paper over the tracks -- over those cracks. i think it has made oil prices more sensitive to these types of events which has clearly helps the performance of energy stocks. jonathan: stuart kaiser of ubs, thanks for being with us here in new york city. you have seen the moves on the energy names or you have also witnessed the reluctance of the c-suite of places like pioneer

and elsewhere, saying we do not want to drill with crude at $100, $150, or even $200. lisa: this is one of the big swing issues. how disciplined can they remain if you see $150 a barrel of oil or beyond? could they start to drill again? jonathan: what does the administration do? that is the move i am interested in. to hear president biden speak yesterday and talk about the costs associated with defending freedom abroad, how will that play at home? can he secure a deal with iran? can they had that gas tax holiday that was reported in the last week? tom: i don't think iran is in the radar of the american people, and i would take it across to moscow eight time zones, maybe it is nine time zones. the answer is they are going to wait to see the reaction of mr. putin. i don't need to get into the inflammatory twitter stuff we see about what has happened in the last five or six hours, but

i would just note dollar ruble is a good thermostat. we have had, since the length of this show began, that is a typo on my part, that is rrub -- that is rub, we have moved. through $81 if we get there. jonathan: at 79. futures up 0.5% on the s&p. else higher by three basis points, 1.9668%, and crude backing away. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. ukraine is moving towards declaring a nationwide state of emergency that would allow

ukrainian officials to impose restrictions on movement and media following russia's recognition of two self-proclaimed republics in ukraine. the first round of sanctions on russia were seen as underwhelming. numbers of congress from both parties want him to do more. the fortunes of russia's superrich have fallen $32 billion this year. sanctions from the conflict in ukraine are likely to destroy even more wealth. a list of russian billionaires have seen their fortunes drop almost 1/3. he now has a fortune of about $16 billion. in hong kong, the government is trying to offset the toll the escalating virus outbreak has taken on the economy. eligible residents will get almost $1300 in spending vouchers. authorities have also earmarked more than $2.5 billion for other antivirus needs. hong kong's economic growth is expected to slow to as little as 2% this year to growing 6.4% in

2021. lowe's is signaling americans increased spending on home improvement projects still has room to grow. it raised its outlook for the full year and's operating margin improvement in the fourth quarter. our glaze has posted its highest annual profit on record. the british bank dealmakers had a busy into the year that helped offset a slump at the end of the year. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> every indication is that russia continues to plan for a full-scale attack on ukraine. we see the ongoing military buildup. they promise to step back, but they have continued to step up. jonathan: jens stoltenberg, the nato secretary-general. bouncing back from yesterday's losses in the equity market, we are higher by 0.6% on the s&p 500. at the close yesterday, the s&p

500 down by more than 10%. yields higher, up three basis points on tends to 1.9686%. you have been on this throughout the last six weeks, the relentless flattening of the yield curve. the distance between twos and gets shorter. tom: there is a massive distinction between a flat yield curve and an inverted yield curve. we will do the math on that when we get a window here on fixed income dynamics. joining us now, this has been hugely popular, in washington, annmarie hordern in brussels -- annmarie hordern. in brussels, maria tadeo. we have been waiting for a response from vladimir putin. is it an alone ad hoc from vladimir putin, or does he have a team deciding how to respond? maria: we have seen very clearly over the last 48 hours, he does not listen to anyone. this is a decision made by vladimir putin, and every thing around him is theater, it is

optics. when he called his generals to get their opinion, in reality, we know he has already made a decision. today we have not seen anything or heard from him because it is a public holiday in russia. we could see it tomorrow, but there's to focus points where the attention is based, particularly from nato. one is what he is going to do in belarus. he has essentially taken over to regions in eastern ukraine -- over two regions in eastern ukraine and has posted in belarus. tom: summarize from brussels all of the reporting you have of the distinction of where the separatists and russians are now, and if they move west into the rest of don bass -- of donbas. how will that be treated by kiev and the west? maria: if they stay where they

are, this is very crude to put it this way, but we know the ukrainian government has completely lost control of the two breakaway republics that russia is nothing they recognize. if they move away from that, then you talk about east ukraine. the distinction is key, and that is really the battleground. lisa: in all of this fog of war, we are looking at a repositioning or deployment of 6000 u.s. troops to germany, poland, and romania near the border. that is the scope, and the contrast of 190,000 troops that russia reportedly has built up on the border. is there any discussion about further troop deployment? what is the pushback like on that? annmarie: the president mentioned yesterday further deployment into the baltics, the likes of estonia, lit waning a -- estonia, lithuania, latvia. you also saw defense secretary

lloyd austin saying let's put artillery and potentially troops as well in the likes of poland. poland is critical because we did know they were so concerned about further invasion and russian aggression onto ukraine, even though they have moved the embassy. they then took all of their staff and moved into poland overnight. what you are seeing the u.s. doing alongside allies is bolster the eastern flank. we should note, this is exactly what putin does not want. lisa: president putin has been clear he is ok with the fog of war. he is ok being the aggressor. in fact, what he desires might not make economic sense for his nation, but it makes sense to get the predominance of the soviet union back to hark into an older time. i am wondering whether the u.s. has the appetite for war, whether the allies have the appetite for war, or whether they do not. annmarie: the president has made it clear they will not be

sending american troops into ukraine, but i think you hit on a point that a lot of people studying putin and looking at the situation don't quite grasp. this is going to be harsh economic pain. we saw the first tranch, but potentially there will be others. this will hurt russians. but he's had sanctions. in the annexation of crimea, there were sanctions. with the poisoning in salisbury, there were sanctions. this is an individual for whom the greatest catastrophe was the breakup of the soviet union. this is where his mind is when it comes to ukraine, especially eastern ukraine. jonathan: you have made the point, sony people come on programs like this and try to work out what the russian president is thinking.

your point is watch what he has been saying, watches actions, and observe the importance of history as well. today it is defender of the fatherland day get the importance of february 21, how important are these days for him? annmarie: vladimir putin is a student of history, and he loved dates. when i was in moscow for the last "election," they moved the date so that it matched up with what they call the reunification of crimea. february 22 was actually the day that a russian backed leader was fleeing ukraine. this was a moment in which russia lost that sphere of influence in ukraine, and you had a former premier coming out and saying this is a new european ukraine. then today you have the defender

of the farmland. they say they want to pastor diplomacy, but i when it comes to -- but not -- a path to diplomacy, but not when it comes to russian redlines. jonathan: really looking forward to the interview a little bit later. annmarie hordern alongside maria tadeo. annmarie catching up with the ukrainian foreign minister around 3:30 eastern time. tom: let's go eight hours out on that -- or seven hours out, i should say. it gets us to where we are tomorrow morning, european morning. you wonder, after a one-day pause, is a launch of further develop its? -- is it a launch of further developments? jonathan: they use this phrase, the first tranche.

does it there is runway to come? tom: particularly with germany and the united states. jonathan: futures up 0.7% on the s&p. yields higher by three basis points to one point 97%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ jonathan: direct russia sales exposure the s&p 500. we've got to think about what j.p. morgan is thinking about, the indirect spillover. a slower consumer off the back of higher energy prices. higher gas prices. they are the issues we need to grapple with. up 0.7% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up more than one present. down from the previous high on january 3. is this bounce when you want to get behind? we can talk about that through the show this morning. tuesday, tens, and 30's. ash to's, tens, and 30's -- twos, tens, and 30's.

we start to build up the front end again, back for 1.62% on twos. that spread between twos and tens, we are in the 30's again, narrower. when was the last time we were this flat? lisa: in the beginning of 2020 four the pandemic. we heard from mohamed el-erian this morning, talking about how the fed will be paying attention to this. so with this actually deter them from moving as fast as some people expect? jonathan: they haven't even cut once yet. i want to go down south to the southern hemisphere and talk about new zealand. the new zealand central bank made a move overnight about the destination on rates in the forecast. that is going to be increasingly important for so many of you. at about the start of the journey, not necessarily about the pace, but the endpoint.

the destination. the destination for this central bank has changed for year end next year. as we thick about where a hawkish surprise might come from, that is where it might come from. do they change the ultimate destination of the federal reserve for how far they are willing to take this? tom: there's a selective group of banks that try to get out front, where they say we are not emerging markets. we are fully developed economies. new zealand is one of those. as you mentioned earlier, there is a heritage of new zealand getting out front. jonathan: one to watch. it's the croissant set -- the cross asset price action. your morning movers with romaine. good morning. romaine: we talk about the big draw down we saw yesterday with the s&p 500, 10% down from that all-time high. a lot of that has to do with the big drawdown we have seen in tech stocks. when you go back to the all-time highs we had in late november and early january, we are pretty

significant below that. the nasdaq 100 down 17% from that all-time high, apple down about 10%, microsoft down 16% or get interesting note by the folks at goldman sachs that looked at a lot of the filings and showed that there was a significant tilt of some of the value names and a shunning of these growthier names. that same data could be a contrarian signal to come back in and buy. all of the major tech stocks are higher in the premarket. it will be interesting to see if these drawdowns finally have some semblance of a bottom and whether that will be enough to provide a little bit of lift to this market amidst all of the geopolitical issues swirling around. we did get lows earnings a little bit earlier this morning or get a beat and a raise quarter for the company, made even more sick the can by the fact that its competitor home depot yesterday missed pretty big. those shares up about 2.5%. we are getting tjx earnings crossing the wire now. the share is down slightly now.

they missed on some of the revenue numbers, but they did beat on eps. they did provide guidance that did come up a little bit light. for the quarter they had about $14 billion in sales, a little less than what the street was looking for. comp sales growth for the quarter going to be about 1.3%, also a little less than what the street was looking for. after the bell, we will get more earnings out of some of the retailers, including ebay. those shares slightly higher in the premarket. tom: thank you so much. the close this afternoon to sharpen up the back end of this earnings season. right now with bonds is winnie cisar, credit sites -- credit sights global head of strategy. it is not about yield change, but trying to find in fixed income where price will go up. where is that? what part of fixed income do i find little bits of price moving up? winifred: good morning.

thank you for having me. that is a great point. what we have noticed is the belly of the curve in investment grade, you are now trading at a discount, which very rarely happens. usually in the investment grade market, investors are known to be expect to made whole at par. so we are recommending that investors take a look at the belly of the curve, and in high-yield we have started to see bond prices traded a discount, and that market is a much different market than it was in the mid to thousands. early, you leverage to energy in that market is a fairly positive thing with all of few political risks and russia-ukraine headlines. tom: we've got some major jargon going on here. the belly of the curve is identifiable. but seriously, how do you find the belly of the curve? winnie: yes, i did have the

jargon speak. we like the five to 10 year segment of the curve, so not really long-duration, that 30 year segment of the curve, but just extending a little bit so you don't have a really inflated front end portfolio, and to the point where you actually see a lot of new issue, which also helps when you are looking for liquidity and adding to portfolios and sizes. lisa: taking a look at the broader credit complex, a lot of people say we are not heading towards another credit crisis by any means because companies have done such a good job of kicking the can down the road, extending the maturities, getting their financing as cheap as possible. but are you starting to see the window for cheap financing really close up? winnie: what we are beginning to see is the opportunistic indo shutting. for those issuers who are really trying to aggressively address capital structures and refinance, i think that window

has closed. we have already hit the all-time low point in yield and boast investment grade -- yield in both investment-grade and high-yield. now it is about sticking where those kind of opportunities make sense. the energy sector is one such sector where we think refinancing is probably going to continue because you had a bit of a later recovery in that sector for issuers, and borrowing costs are still pretty attractive, all things considered. overall, we don't think the move in yields has become a threat to either investment-grade or high-yield quite yet. companies can still borrow at very low levels overall. this kind of slow down new issue supplies is just a natural effect of volatility of the market. it is very constructive technically for the market. lisa: there are two issues here, and this is some thing a lot of people have been trying to wrap their heads around. on one hand, you could potentially get a rates driven selloff in the credit market. at what point does that lead to some sort of corporate credit response?

in other words, it is not going to affect these corporations because their financing is so cheap, but they don't need more money. i what point are we immunized because you see a pretty big selloff in the valuations of some of these credits, but even see companies with very solid balance sheets? winnie: what you will ultimately need to have is this kind of spiral of rates volatility driving spread volatility, which drives really negative total return losses in portfolios. when investors go and look at their q1 2022 statements and say why are my invest grade bonds down 7% this quarter, and then they start selling into that downmarket and you get this kind of spiral of spreads widening more and liquidity really gets cut off from the market. given the amount of cash still on the sidelines, we feel fairly confident there will be a clearing level where institutions step back in and say 10 year credit looks pretty attractive at 3.5%, but we have not quite reached that point

yet. we were thinking 3% to 3.5% at the level where institutional investors would step back in. but given the russia-ukraine headlines, i think that is keeping people sitting on their cash a little bit longer than we would have expected. jonathan: thank you, as always. good to hear from you, winnie cisar of creditsights. we are about to see $80 once again. tom: a print of $81, a weaker ruble is a huge deal. we are not there yet. i'm not even going to speculate why we are seeing 77 through 78, and at any moment, 79.99 on ruble. i don't want to speculate on the why of that, but just to go weaker into print, 81 point -- a1 -- 81.xx would be a huge

deal. lisa: it seems like vladimir putin is not necessarily, no pun intended, trumped by the economic feedback loop on his economy. he wants something different, and that is going to lead to record weakness. that is what i keep reading about, anyway. jonathan: even with crude prices in the 90's? lisa: which is interesting. some of the moves i am seeing in currencies don't make sense to me. for instance, the chinese currency. jonathan: that did not make sense to me all of last year. lisa: they are we getting, they are easing their monetary policy , going in the exact opposite direction, seeing the most currency strength going back to 2016 versus the dollar. jonathan: it is a really interesting time. on dollar ruble, 79.99. tom: we have not even mentioned this morning, the strength in renminbi is stunning. onshore yuan gave me pause this

morning to see it. 6.3167, that is a wow statistic of strong yuan. tom: it is nice you are on the same page this -- jonathan: it is nice you are on the same page this morning, tom. [laughter] lisa: it is notable. jonathan: good morning to you while at home. a lot of these are inside jokes which don't work on tv or radio. i don't know why we do them. futures up 0.8% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up 1.2%. yields up to 1.9773%. tom looking at dollar ruble. crude down 0.5%. in the fx market for euro-dollar , 1.1344. we talked about what it means for the fed. what does it mean for the ecb and their naps -- and their next move? for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, the first word, i'm ritika

gupta. russian president vladimir putin says he is ready to pursue diplomatic solutions in the ukraine crisis, but only of russia's interests and security are guaranteed. putin spoke after the u.s. and allies agreed on a first set of economic sanctions against moscow for its actions in ukraine. apollo funds has agreed to buy auto parts maker tonight for an equity valuation of about 7.1 billion dollars. that represent say 100% premium to their closing price yesterday. rio tinto has established itself as one of the big winners in the global economic rebound. the world's second-largest miner delivered its highest profits ever and announced another massive dividend of $7.7 billion. >> we have started the year well, but i am not in the game of predicting commodity prices. they are very volatile. but short-term, there's a good demand from china, and for a

long-term company like rio tinto, the metals and minerals they are producing are really being helped by the energy transmission. ritika: rio tinto's most important commodity, iron ore, hit record prices last year, as did copper. ritika: according to a government official, prime minister justin trudeau invoked powers last week to cut off funding to protest leaders. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> plan a is to utilize every

tool of diplomacy to deter russia and prevent further escalation. and if that fails, plan b is to fight for every inch of our land. jonathan: ukrainian foreign minister yesterday, alongside antony blinken, canceling his meeting with sergei lavrov later this week. futures up this morning 0.75% on the s&p, up more than 1% on the nasdaq. that is a tidy bounce from yesterday's losses, a 10% move. so called correction territory. yields higher on tends, yields up three or four basis points. this curve is flatter with a bigger move on twos. the curve down to 36.6. tom: dollar ruble weakens through to 80 and 80.16 right now, which means we need perspective here, six years

before what we saw in crimea, 2008. pretty good. on ruble. what do you have -- kriti gupta on ruble. what do you have? kriti: we've got to go past crimea into 2008, when he saw that initial surge for the dollar against the ruble. the recognition of the breakaway regions, this is the first time you actually saw a russia have these tensions with some of its eastern bloc states. he then saw this magnify six years later with crimea, and that is where you get the $80 significant level. essentially, the ruble throughout history, and 2014, on an intraday basis, go into that $80 level and kind of sticking there and bouncing back doing all the way to 2020 and right now bouncing at the level we are

trading at, 80.21 on the ruble. tom: dow futures doing nicely today. right now on our domestic nature, greg valliere joins us, chief u.s. policy strategist at agf. how did the president do yesterday? greg: fair, not great. he conceded that this was an invasion. i think most people were a little bit surprised how mild his sanctions were. the white house pushback is that they think the russians may do more and they want to save some things in reserve for more sanctions, but it did not get rave reviews. tom: but then there is the path forward, where mr. putin lowers spot. this goes to our agenus -- our agedness, where we remember a couple of go arounds on russia.

does america have quality intelligence on what the kremlin is doing? greg: i think we are listening to them. i'm not sure if we have a mold or not or listening devices -- a mole or not or listening devices, but we are listening to them. the reports in the last couple of weeks were astonishingly accurate, forecasting what the russians would do. so yes, i think we have good intelligence. lisa: putting all this together and talking about the volatility, you made a point i thought was pretty stark, that suddenly, the chances of recession by next winter are no longer zero. can you walk us through how we get there? greg: i think as we all know, monetary policy will get more restrictive. that is an easy call. i think the less appreciated story's fiscal policy. i think we are now going to sharply reduce deficits. we are going to go from $3 trillion down to $1 trillion. that is a big drop in one year. if the republicans take the

house, which i think is quite likely, there will be an even more austere mood in congress on spending. both monetary and fiscal policy i think would contribute to a weaker economy. lisa: how does russia factor into that? greg: gasoline, i thing that is probably the main thing, and just the uncertainty. in this city you've got factions forming, you've got trump saying putin is great yesterday, democrats not happy about the sanctions because of gasoline prices, and you got hawks, people like lindsey graham who want to spend a lot more and have a lot more sanctions. so with this kind of cacophony of suggestions, that does not help the economic outlook. lisa: although does former president trump really represent the republican view? honestly, how much dissonance is there when it comes to the domestic approach to ukraine and to vladimir putin? greg: i think trump has people who follow him off a bridge.

his comments yesterday were astonishing, saying what putin is doing his genius. there already were some republicans who agreed with trump on that. i think it is a minority view. i think the lindsey graham view would dominate. if john mccain more alive, he would talk about -- if john mccain were alive, he would talk about much tougher sanctions, but we have not seen those yet. tom: what is the difference of our actually send now? i would suggest -- of our isolation now? i would suggest it is different than the 1930's and the "chicago tribune" isolationism of the midwest. what is different now? greg: i just think we can't stick our heads in the sand. what is different this time around is that joe biden, who i give credit to, has united nato. i think this is been a big surprise to putin. i don't think he expected it, specially with germany, and i think a unified nato is a real

change. jonathan: it is an important change playing out before our eyes. they are all using the same tone, the same words. and they actually go through with game changing sanctions, though? i wonder if that is where the divisions start to emerge. they called it tranche one of the effort. do you think there will be more down the road? greg: yes. there will be more military aid, more sanctions on russian debt, so there's a long list of things we can impose on putin, and again, i don't think he was prepared for sanctions quite as strong as the ones he will get over the next few weeks. he did not get it yesterday, but i think it is coming. jonathan: which one is the one you are looking for the sanction you think will taken by surprise? greg: the russians' ability to flow to their own data. i think they will have a hard time in western financial circles selling their paper, and

i think that will be a surprise. the other thing obviously is much more military aid. jonathan: greg valliere of agf investments, thank you. at the moment, this is not a major deal for them. many people have been preparing for this moment as well. certainly, you would like to have the debt market. lisa: how many essays have you read about vladimir putin not necessarily following a rational course of action? how many people trying to understand exactly what his goals are? how much does this translate into sanctions that work? what is deterrence? jonathan: do you suggest that nato is now dealing with in a rational actor? lisa: there have been -- with an irrational actor? lisa: there have been a number of reports suggesting how you deal with that. tom: i agree that the reports are out there, but it is speculation from a distance, and it is the mystery and the

aloneness of mr. putin. jonathan: no mystery about the bounce this morning, up 0.8% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, up more than 1%. on tends, up four basis points. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will be met. supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity.

♪ >> the fed is in a box and people don't know what to do. >> the market is looking at is the fed behind the curve in real terms. >> we don't think they will start off with a 50 basis point rate hike. >> the preferred strategy is a steady pace of 25 basis point rate increases. >> if the market is pricing 50 basis points, the fed should walk through that door. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. thrilled you are with us on radio, on television. the message this morning within the quiet of the headlines, a