♪ >> early this morning, russian troops invaded ukraine, a free and sovereign country. pres. biden: united states, together with our allies, will defend every inch of nato territory. >> what is at stake is the existence of the world order as we know it. >> president putin, stop your troops from attacking ukraine. give peace a chance. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. russia invading ukraine. we will bring you the headlines and the sources of those headlines. the headline of the last 30 minutes from ukraine's border guard service, the russian military vehicles have breached into the give region -- the kiev region. tom: the story is changing

minute by minute. the movement for kiev is going quicker than anyone anticipated. jonathan: things escalated overnight. tom: in the bloomberg world, and we will address that through the morning, but also in the international relations world, i am struck by a tweet moment to by agent when you know -- by a gentle menu know far better than i do, david davis -- a gentleman you know far better than i do, david davis in the u.k. parliament, saying this is a war with the west. lisa: i was really struck by the lines of people, the cars leaving kiev come the idea that poland and all of the other regional countries are preparing for an onslaught of refugees as people try to escape ahead of the escalating conflict. jonathan: we understand we will hear from the president of the united states a little bit later. we've heard from prime minister boris johnson area take a listen. pm johnson: today we will

agree on a massive package of sanctions to hobble the russian economy. we must also collectively ceased dependence on russian oil and gas that for too long has given putin his grip on western politics. jonathan: what those sanctions look like is the focus for a lot of people in this market and for the people of ukraine. what can they do to shake russian aggression, if anything at all? tom: what gives me pause is if you talk to experts on sanctions like daniel tennenbaum, these people say it is the swiss six system come up banking -- swiss system, banking, maybe mr. putin directly, but that is not stop

helicopters towards kiev. jonathan: coming into today, the s&p 500 was down about 11% year to date. the nasdaq 100 was down 17% year to date. we are now down by 2.25 percent on the s&p, 2.8% on the nasdaq. there is a bid into the haven trade. yields lower by 11 basis points. brent crude through $100. we breached that level weekly on wti. what an intraday move, up 8.2%. lisa: oil is reshaping the global economic narrative. how much does it stay the main narrative going forward, and how much do central bankers and global political leaders respond to this? we have g7 leaders meeting to discuss russia around 9:00 a.m. all of the leaders, including president biden. german chancellor olaf scholz planning to speak at 10:00 a.m. at about 2:00 p.m., european leaders are holding an emergency summit in brussels. we were talking about that swift

banking system, the fact, why won't they kick russia out of that. one of the big concerns about this has been called the nuclear option, that russia will then stop exports of oil and gas, and given the dependence of europe on that, it really does highlight, to your point, is this the unspoken truth, that they are going to be unwilling to take these types of actions because of their vulnerability to russia's oil and gas? we are seeing oil climb. we get some u.s. crude inventory data, just getting a sense of how tight the market is. today, a slew of fed speakers are going to come out. we are going to hear from them, and the key question is going to be how much do they adapt their stance on fed policy to what we are seeing in this conflict, in oil prices. we hear from tom barkan, raphael

bostic, loretta mester, mary daly. the yield curve continues to flatten, not from the front end, but from the long end, as people ratchet back expectations for long-term growth. jonathan: thank you. for all of us, it feels almost embarrassing to be talking about markets at a moment like this one, but that is what we have to do on a program like this. futures done by more than 2%. a dark day for the continent. let's just stress, some really dark words from the russian president overnight. tom: what is so important here is angela stent writing in putin's world says you can't look back, as angela merkel said , to the romance of the 19th or 20th century. nevertheless, that is what mr. putin does. his partial translation from "the washington post," this is language midpoint in mr. putin's speech last night. "it's goal is to protect people who have been abused by the genocide of kiev's regime for

years, and to this end we will strive for the demilitarization and denazification of ukraine. the results of the second world war, as well as the sacrifices made by our people on the altar of the victory of nazism are sacred." stunning language from the leader of russia. jonathan: let's get to anne-marie in d.c. and maria tadeo in brussels. it feels like in the last hour, and escalation. what are you hearing? maria: a huge escalation, and it is key that we talk about the pace of this invasion. it is important that we fact-check everything russia has been saying. this is not a limited operation. this is happening in every corner of ukraine. we are seeing it from belarus, eastern ukraine, and crimea, and a country that is clearly outnumbered when it comes to the russian army.

the other point i would highlight, the russian troops may be heading very close to the ukrainian capital. that could be a very serious issue. it means that this is going very quickly and also means that the ukrainian government at one point could come under serious threat. the question is who do you speak to. is it zelensky that is still in power? i have a source that says when it comes to sections, we either agree to this or in six hours, the russians will be here, at which point, forget about it. jonathan: the word tom: tom: -- the word -- tom: the word tranche is gone, isn't it? maria: they were diplomacy has gone completely out of the playbook. this is now war. everything at this point has been proven false. rim ember when russia said we do

not have any military operations in belarus. at this point, it has been proven incorrect. they are entering ukraine from belarus. when they said this is only about the donbass, they are now heading into the capital. when vladimir putin says this is a nazi government, the head of the government is jewish and this is a democratic elected government. people voted for this government. lisa: some people have called this the nuclear option, really cutting them off from the global financial system. how much is the u.s. really considering this and willing to accept the higher cost of oil? we talk a lot about europe, but it is on president biden's agenda as well. annmarie: you have russian oil heading to the united states. this is the second biggest exporter. you have the u.s. basically

halting the exports of other producers. how do you remove russia from the global oil market when you're dealing domestically with higher inflation and higher gasoline prices. they were able to stop venezuela and around -- and iran. will they be able to take those steps against russia? what military officials say is that swift is still on the table, but we will find out today if that will be used as a pure deterrent. lisa: if nato unions stop talking about bringing ukraine into that alliance, if they take away some of that pressure on russia, they will come to the table. has nato budged at all?

has nato discussed the possibility of pushing this down the road? maria: they don't. i want to take a moment to her about nato because there's a lot of information that is not quite accurate. we know that in reality, the prospect for ukraine to enter nato in the short term are very limited. so when vladimir putin says this is an imminent move, that is factually not correct. the other thing is vladimir putin says this is about nato, but in reality, this started when ukrainian government at the time, very closely connected with vladimir putin, decided to u-turn on a free-trade agreement with the european union. that prompted a government change, and at that point, that is when tensions really escalate between russia and ukraine. they see the ukrainians moving west. then of course, this is now the ukrainian constitution that make sickly or we want to join nato and the european union, but in reality, to say this just comes

down to nato is really ignoring the big picture here. vladimir putin in an essay last year said ukraine is our origin. this is part of russia. the worst tragedy is that we got separated, and the fall and the collapse of the soviet union is the worst they -- they were thing to ever happen to this country. to say this is just nato ignores the fundament of. este fundamentals. thing -- the fundamentals. jonathan: things are moving incredible he quickly. escalation the last hour, ukraine's border guard service say, "russia's military vehicles breached into the kiev. region" -- the kiev region." from new york city, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. russia has begun a full-scale invasion of ukraine. the country is being pounded by

a barrage of missile, artillery, and air attacks. ukraine has reported dozens of casualties. russia's president vladimir putin is vowing to, and his words, demilitarized the country and replace its leaders. in response, the u.s. threatened further sanctions. president biden will speak to the nation after a virtual meeting with g7 leaders. the biden administration may tap its emergency supply of oil again. the price of oil passed $100 a barrel. the russian invasion is jeopardizing the chances of reaching an agreement with iran on its new year program. world powers find themselves on opposite sides of europe's biggest security crisis since world war ii. a success for conclusion to the talks could be days away, but the u.s. and iran still have to resolve some key differences.

singapore will delay plans to ease limits on gatherings. it said it would relax travel and social restrictions once the current wave of infections peaks. the price of oil rallied to a high and london, beating the previous set into thousand eight. russia is one of the biggest producers of the most widely used base metal. aluminum has seen a dramatic turnaround over the past two years after hitting particularly hard early in the pandemic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

> today the north atlantic council decided to ignite our

defense stance. we will continue to do whatever is necessary to shield the alliance from aggression. jonathan: jen's stilton berg, the nato's -- jen's stilton berg -- jens stoltenberg, the nato secondary general. wti, triple digits. right now, nine and nine dollars -- right now, $99. euro-dollar down by one full percentage point, 1.2% in the dollar's favor. tom: of course, i look at euro swissie. a 1.02 print their would be a stricken area. -- would be extraordinary. jonathan: the ukraine border

service say that russian military vehicles have breached into the kiev region. this is more widespread than what was discussed over the past few weeks, and it is escalated in a way that we are now talking about regime change. also getting a headline that says ukraine says heavy fighting near kiev, so things moving very quickly, and we will bring you the headlines and the sources for those headlines as they come through. tom: a suburb of kiev towards belarus, it is a cargo airport, but no doubt critical. that has been in the zeitgeist for the last hour. i would also note the black sea. you see turkish lira going out to 14.54. this cousins of the dardanelles and the bosporus, we don't have any confirming headlines on that, but we are monitoring from odessa to crimea in down south to turkey as well, a member of the nato group. right now on this moment in an important voice, peter tchir's

head of microstrategy, and yes, it is about the bloomberg world -- of macro strategies, and yes, it is about the bloomberg world, but with academy securities. you had conversations with your august board of admirals and such. what have you learned in the last one for hours? peter: the speech by putin was a real turning point. we believed he would create false flag events and look for some pretext. he has moved well beyond that. he's now going through what we would expect to launch an invasion. there attacking the military, attacking communications, governments facilities. i think they will use cyber, and we have to be very cautious about using cyber against those supporting ukraine. tom: what is the regime change today in the academy securities world? is it an analysis of central banks that will delay, or do you

go to your expertise on the short-term yield space? peter: the one thing we do is we've got to get back to energy independence. this is clearly ridiculous that we are relying on countries that don't share any of our social views on this, and we gave up so much in the push to sustainability, and that is important. i think you are looking at oil services companies, pipelines. we did stop the keystone pipeline, but we are allowing nord stream 2 to proceed. so i think we've got to rethink all of that, we've got to do with commodities, we got to thing about what can stop putin. minor sanctions have proven ineffective and continue to proven effective. lisa: have you been surprised that oil prices aren't even higher? peter: i think the problem there is there is this belief still that europe won't have the guts to really stop that oil supply from russia. i think that is something we

unfortunately have to do because putin is not going to take -- or is going to take softness as a reason to be more and more aggressive. lisa: at what point do you look at where oil prices are and where a lot of people are expecting them to go and you say this is going to create a stagflationary type of environment, something that is going to really crimp growth materially more than we previously thought? peter: i think you are right, it is where oil will be six months, a year down the road. i don't see any way to get back to business as usual after putin's actions for the past few days. i think we are going to have to do a lot to support this. i am not sure this complete takes the fed off the table, but we had questions about how much they can do with rate hikes to fix supply chain issues. this is just another massive supply chain issue, so i think the fed is going to have to be really conscious in what they do and figure out how to navigate this. the u.s. might have to look at taking back some of the oil patches, thinking of ways to

ensure the average person isn't that affected because i think we're going to have to deal with this friction with russia right now. jonathan: let's try to get six to 12 months ahead. i know that is tremendously difficult on a morning like this morning, but initially the shock is a global issue. over the next several months, it becomes more a regional story, and then just local pain. i wonder, from your perspective, what makes you think this could remain a global story for longer than several weeks, several months? peter: i think this is going to trigger europe and the u.s. to rethink how we are dealing with energy. we are going to have to get back to exploring for energy, developing our own resources, pushing hard on sustainability. we have to think about energy. i think that is going to be the long reaching thing. just as the pandemic has had this multiyear supply chain rethinking, i think it is going

to be huge for the energy industry, and that is the global story i think we are going to be talking about for years down the road as the global economy normalizes. jonathan: over the last 12 months, there's been a lot of pushback to the 1970's conversation. lisa has mentioned several times , not just today, the word stagflation. does that parallel start to make more sense? peter: i don't think so. i think we will figure out ways to deal with this forget the u.s. economy isn't growing. a lot of this -- economy is growing. i love this is still going to be good for the economy. a lot of this on shoring or near shoring, that is just going to accelerate. we are seeing much more of a russia-china, i don't want to say alliance, because i think it is a marriage of convenience, but how they shape the world is going to be very different. i'm looking for u.s. focused companies, latin america, i think that is the area we are going to be part of, and we are going to see this deglobalization.

i think the markets are overreacting a little to what is going on here. russia is not a huge consumer of our goods. crane is not so. this will propel us to decent domestic growth. jonathan: send our best to academy. peter tchir of academy securities. the line from boris johnson from 25 minutes ago, "we must also collectively cease dependence on russian oil and gas that for too long has given putin his grip on western politics." tom: piecing together the news sources, i need to be very careful here. i go with this because it is from the russian federation news agency and also reported by al jazeera, the ukrainian ambassador of ukraine is in some form requesting of turkey to close the bosporus and dardanelles, but particularly the bosporus strait, to russian ships. that is a loaded statement and speaks back to pre-world war ii.

jonathan: let's take a couple of minutes and come back and build that out a little bit more. tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. teachers are negative two point -- futures are negative on the s&p 2.5%. crude is higher, up by almost 7%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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♪ jonathan: demilitarized the country and replace its leaders, the goal of the russian president for ukraine. equities down by 2.4% on the s&p. on the nasdaq we are down by 3%. coming into today, the story was already bleak for equities. we take more weight off the gains of last year. that is the equity story. we talked about military vehicles. that report come from ukraine and border security. you stressed just in the last 20 minutes, let's work through this what we're hearing now. tom: down in the black sea, ukraine is huge.

there's a movement west to poland and potential refugees. odessa to the north, if you go directly down across the black sea, you've got to get into the plexi pretty bosporus straits. there's a dialogue out from al jazeera and others that the ukrainian ambassador has requested of turkey to close the bosporus straits. this is highly contentious congo bats to -- contentious, goes back to 1936. that is a third rail debate for mr. putin, if there was even a consideration. jonathan: things are moving very quickly. when the headlines come through, we will bring those to you. here's a commodity story. it is pretty obvious. crude up, nat gas up by 36% today. on crude, $104 on brent.

wti up 7.5%. what is less obvious is what this means for the federal reserve. there's a bid into treasuries today. just how much fed action for this year do you want to take off the table off the back of this? tuesday down 11 or 12 -- two's down 11 or 12 basis points. dollar-yen, your swiss, euros swiss, -12 percent. stronger swissie. dollar-yen -0.3%. dollar-yen, 1.1 4 -- dollar-yen, 114.64. tom: these are moves in real time, and on euro swissie, we are at a creek appoint right now. jonathan: let's get you some single names -- a critical point now. jonathan: let's get you some single names and say good morning to romaine. romaine: the s&p moving deeper into correction tory tory -- correction territory. all of the big cap tech stocks

are on the back foot, including apple shares, which are down about 4%. tesla down 6%, 7% on the day. any stock that has cross-border exposure also getting sold. united airlines shares down about 6%. one of the few things getting better energy stocks. that move we saw in brent crude and natural gas, the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the united states higher by about 7.6 percent. pretty much everything in the energy space right now, if you go through the s&p 500 energies index, 21 stocks in that index, all 21 higher in the premarket. we are also seeing a big bid come into the defense contractors coming putting lockheed martin and northrop. a lot of the key missiles our navy uses. those are up about 3%. mining companies getting bid. newmont, barrick gold up a couple of percentage points. we can't forget about the russian stocks that trade here in the u.s.

yandex down 29% in the premarket, coming off of a 36% slide over the previous days. tom: we are continuing to monitor markets on the move. i'm looking at the u.s. to year as well. i think that is at a creek level. -- a critical level. jonathan: does this change things for the federal reserve? we are risen the range of the last few weeks. we have not broken through that, still in and around 1.50%. tom: right now with a broader view, whal -- broader view, wei li joins us, local chief investment strategist at black rock. how will black rock deal with the regime shift mr. putin has handed us? wei: there are many ways to look

at the definition of regime shift. we talk about the fact that we had a very rare companies in of stock up, bond down return last year, that was our expectation. for this year, our view defines a regime change and a higher inflationary regime, and that has consequent is for asset allocation as well. more broadly on the development on the geopolitical front, i would stress that we entered 2022 having lowered our risk budget within our asset allocation framework, and looking back, that has given central bank confusion, that was a prudent thing to do. , but in the light of geopolitical uncertainty, will and to see how it plays out.

tom: we hear from the gentleman in france, mr. macron. he mix very clear in his headlines that sanctions against russia will match its actions. another frenchman needs to speak , and that is christine lagarde of the ecb. how should madame lagarde address this moment? wei: there's a lot of considerations that play to central-bank calculus. on the one hand, there is supply driven inflation stock, inflation dynamics -- inflation shock, inflation dynamics getting intensified. on the other hand, going into an inflation environment, watching central-bank rate hikes play out , all the while also having a safe haven bid. i think the pictures a lot more nuanced and a lot more complicated than just an

immediate inflation shock or safe haven bid which is why yields have been swinging wildly and unbalanced in the magnitude of the develop and's. dusty developments. -- the developments. jonathan: as you know, this has been -- for a lot of people, the idea that europe would recover, get long european financials. how does that trade stack up now ? wei: for central banks to exit extraordinarily accommodative environments in a macro dynamic that is very much not your typical recovery, we think that central banks should and can normalize rates to a more neutral state, but going beyond this in our view is not warranted because inflationary dynamics are supply driven, and

in light of geopolitical dynamics, it is intensifying the supply driven inflation shock. so we do think that central banks will kick off for ecb, but the cumulative amount of rate hikes, which is ultimately what matters for long-term risk sentiment and asset allocation, the cumulative amount of rate hikes in this cycle should and will be, in our view, a lot more muted compared to what we are going through in previous cycles, and the reaction in backing sectors speaks to the confusion and elevated state of uncertainty in reading this very murky central-bank picture that we see playing out. jonathan: thank you very much, wei li of black rock. we are all trying to work out what the fed speak sounds like a little bit later. the pressure on those individuals now to set up a

march meeting. lisa: before what happened this week, we were talking about the fed possibly making an error and moving too quickly. it is why you so i flattening yield curve. the narrative has shifted, and now there's a question of whether we will the unable to avoid more stagflation era type of environment, with the higher oil prices really crimping growth. that has been what is driving the flattening yield curve the long end really driving the action, not necessarily the short end, which is also seeing yields decline. jonathan: when we have been working through various scenarios around this story, one repeat that i got again and again was more. maybe they have to do more and not less because of the crude factor here. you see that. energy prices up in a massive way. lisa: a lot of people are saying, what can the fed dubai raising rates to address the oil situation? they are just going to try to support growth because growth may be more impacted by oil prices at such highs. the degree of uncertainty right

now is the reason why you are seeing such massive volatility. either way, the growth outlook, and i thing it is right for you to pick up on the european banks, the growth outlook for the european region has shifted in ways that will possibly upend one of the most popular trades out there. jonathan: the question now is whether these sanctions hit russian energy. the french president valves to respond "without weakness to russia's act of war," saying russia's attack on ukraine is a turning point in european history. tom: i go to the south with reuters talking to this conversation of ukraine requesting of nato member turkey to close the bosporus strait to russian shipping. to me, that is an absolutely key -- is that a sanction? i don't know what it is come but this harkens back to winds of war, 1937, 1938 period. it is an extra ordinary moment.

what will mr. erdogan do? which side will he select? jonathan: we will catch up with the morgan stanley senior u.s. economist. why do i do that everything will time? i do that to rob every single time. futures down 2.6% on the nasdaq -- 2.6% come on the nasdaq down 3%. we are up by 7.2 percent. a quick look at brent for you. brent crude at $104.76. from new york city, the coverage continues on radio, on tv. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. vladimir putin says the u.s. and its allies have crossed a redline, so guess begun a

full-scale invasion of ukraine. russia launched a barrage of attacks thursday. ukraine has reported dozens of casualties and says the capital is under attack. president biden will speak after a virtual meeting with other g7 leaders. nato is continuing to deploy more land and air forces to member countries near ukraine. the alliance will hold a virtual summit to discuss its reaction to the invasion. the biden administration has repeatedly ruled out sending u.s. or nato forces into ukraine. the four major precious metals rose after the russian attack. the action boosted demand for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. alibaba has reported the slowest revenue growth since it went public. that underscores how china's crackdown on its tech sector is hurting the e-commerce giant. sales rose 9.7% for the three months ending in december, well

below the 40% or more growth before the government scrutiny began. moderna posted fourth quarter sales and profit that beat estimates. the drugmaker says it has signed $22 billion in orders for its current various vaccine -- it's coronavirus vaccine. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i welcome the decision of some members of this council to

meet as soon as possible to consider the necessary decision. it will condemn the aggression that you launch on my people. there is no purgatory for war criminals. they go straight to hell. jonathan: the words of the ukraine ambassador to the united nations. on the nasdaq, we are down by 3.27 percent. into the bond market, yields lower by 14 basis points to 1.8560%. crude higher by almost 8% now, $99 $.26 on wti. brent crude still nicely through $100. president putin vowing to "demilitarize" the country and replace its leaders. things are moving fast this morning. tom: really can't emphasize that enough. the rate of change is second derivative from about four clock

a.m. new york time this morning, just measured by euro swissie, we are going to get a hundred two print for the second time -- get a 102 print for the second time. we are there again. jonathan: javier blas put out a story earlier this week, and i want to go through the numbers just so everyone understands what is still happening all most every day. in one day this week, the eu, u.k., and u.s. like a spent $700 million of commodities from russia. millions on aluminum, coal, nickel, titanium, gold, and other commodities. javier working through those numbers, it is import to go over this because when you hear the strong language, the rhetoric you get from western leaders today, the numbers also speak for themselves. tom: they do. the numbers are moving, and to bring in javy are now with his global knowledge -- to bring in javier now, with his global

knowledge, is a great pleasure, with bloomberg opinion and his book on oil this year. the bosporus strait is a narrow point of 700 meters just outside in simple -- just outside istanbul. you have been there. the view from that mosque of russian ships is threatened. how would mr. putin react if we cut off the ships and the oil of russia through the bosporus strait to the mediterranean? javier: no one really knows what will happen. turkey is under international agreements to stop russian warships going through the bosporus strait. he feels it is threatening his own interests. we will see whether turkey takes that call by ukraine. but it is more difficult to stop the flow of oil tankers, and

most of the oil tankers across the bosporus strait do so under the russian flag. jonathan: it is one thing tensioning a pipeline that is not operational. it is another thing on the existing flows back and forth. what kind of sanctions are you braced for later today? javier: i think we are going to see very significant sanctions. i will expect that we are going to see sanctions on all major financial institutions in russia. i will expect that we will have more sanctions on principles of russia, including president putin himself. all of these most likely were discounted already by the kremlin. they knew that this was coming. they did not care. i do not think any of those sanctions are going to surprise the kremlin. they will act as a punishment, a strong punishment. the russian economy is going to suffer.

but they are not acting as a deterrent. they are not stopping vladimir putin from doing, which is an invasion of a sovereign country in ukraine. jonathan: we need to work through the western response in terms of how they can offset thing. are we waiting for an iranian deal? what are the issues you are focused on? javier: i think all of those issues have been discussed. i'm expecting that we may see some progress on the iranian deal over the next few hours. there were overnight consultations, and a deal is expected over the next few hours if it happens. definitely, all the indications are that the white house is engaged in discussions about the use of the trillium reserves if needed. the price of oil has gone all the way up to $105 on brent, around $100 for wti. this is no longer a demand

driven recovery from covid. this is a market driven by fear, but let's also remember that at this moment, and i emphasize at this moment, the oil flow continues. the pipelines from russia into europe are full and delivering oil every minute, and the gas pipeline even through ukraine are also operational, and they are paying for it. lisa: how likely is it for a response from opec, not opec+, and increasing supplies from saudi arabia? javier: i believe saudi arabia is coming under massive pressure from washington. it is he kind of like which that is happening behind closed doors . it is us or them. you are aligned with russia in opec+, but you also have a strong relationship with the united states, with europe, and across asia with many customers from india to china to japan.

i will expect that that message has been delivered, and probably if something can calm the market right now, it would be a statement from saudi arabia saying that they are concerned with the prices and that they stand ready to act if needed. so far we have not yet anything from saudi arabia, but they have a very difficult situation. they are allied with russia and also the west. they have a neck. of economic war with russia. -- they have an experience with economic war with russia, and they know how difficult it is to fight that war. jonathan: a fantastic piece earlier this week. javier blas, thank you so much. got to sit on this for a moment. you hear the words from the russian. he wants to militarize the country, replace its leaders -- to demilitarized the country, replace its leaders. $700 million worth of commodity trading happening every sin will day between the u.s., the u.k.,

europe, and russia. lisa: we can't get away from the uncomfortable truth that we have not diverted our resources away from russia and that we depend on them for our energy, and i am talking about the u.s. and even more so in europe. in addition, rbc put out a note basically saying that the international reserves of russia are at the highest levels ever as a result of the higher oil prices. they have been preparing for this, so it really raises questions for what kind of shock and awe could bring them to the table anymore material way. jonathan: that was javier's point, that they have been running a bunch of surplus, raising cash. they have been making sure they are ready for this over the last 12 months. tom: the heart of the domestic structure for mr. putin, and i looked at this the other day, is per capita gdp has flatlined in a broad sense over the last 10 years, even moved down. the heart of the matter is this may be as all of this is occurring because he has the gift of -- is this may be

occurring because he has the gift of $70, $80 a barrel oil. jonathan: with futures down 2.5% on the s&p, crude higher by 8%, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> early this morning, russian troops invaded ukraine, a free and sovereign country. >> this is a deliberate, cold-blooded, and long planned invasion. pres. biden: the united states, together with our allies, will defend every inch of nato territory. pm johnson: today, in concert with our allies, we will agree on a massive sanctions package. >> stop your troops from attacking ukraine. give peace a chance. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa