♪ >> early this morning, russian troops invaded ukraine, a free and sovereign country. >> this is a deliberate, cold-blooded, and long planned invasion. pres. biden: the united states, together with our allies, will defend every inch of nato territory. pm johnson: today, in concert with our allies, we will agree on a massive sanctions package. >> stop your troops from attacking ukraine. give peace a chance. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa

abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on bloomberg television, on bloomberg radio, and historic day. it is simple, the headline late in the evening, putin decides to conduct military operation in ukraine. the speed of military operation is stunning. jonathan: things have changed quickly. we are waking up to a very different europe and very different objectives of this russian president, perceived objectives. they have changed were markedly in just a few days. he russian president vowing to demilitarize ukraine and replace its leaders. it is no longer just about separatists in the donbass. tom: what is a single statistic that shows the angst of international relations? jonathan: i've got to say, away from crude, the front-end of the bond market. how that develops is going to be

critical. a monster move at the front end. we have priced and more fed hikes. what happens from here for this federal reserve? that is the number one question for market put this up and's, for markets this morning. for you, for me, for lisa, the people of ukraine absolutely paramount. this is a painful and powerful story for ukraine this morning. tom: it is a war on three fronts. one of those fronts is identified by blinken and yellen the night at 6:30 p.m., the response of washington. lisa: they want to defend nato, they want to stick with their allies, but they still are importing oil. they want to do with gas prices that are absolutely surging, and they are facing an economy that has not fully recovered from the pandemic. how much do we get something further beyond just the sanctions that were expected, and do they go to the swift banking issue and withdrawal russia from the international financial system? tom: looking at the black sea as well, part of the story this

morning. i want to look at the haven data to pick up on the general data. just some of the things in the bloomberg world we look at, it is very simple. strong swiss bank confirmed after 11:00 p.m. last night, down to a 102 print on swiss franc against the euro. ruble 85 is stunning. jonathan: some of the big trades more recently are just unraveling as we back away from this idea the ecb can tighten any time soon. wonder if that changes, but that is the perception this morning. banks in europe are down hard. take your pick, they are down 9%, 10%. there's a lot of pain in the european banking sector this morning with that bid into bonds. tom: perhaps we will see comments from the bank of england, the federal reserve, and the european central bank. they have been with us through the morning, and their reporting late at night. maria tadeo in brussels, as we

have heard from nato and the eu, and annmarie hordern in washington, waking up to a new war. what did we learn in your reporting at the white house in the last hour? annmarie: i just got off the phone with a u.s. official who said the ruby a meeting on everything this morning, and the president is going to come out and speak, so i imagine they are going to take the temperature and assess the situation which is now a war in europe, invasion of russia onto its neighbor ukraine. we have reporting on what is going on on the ground, but at the white house, what they need to decide is what are going to be those sanctions. are they going to go as far as cutting off the world from russian oil and gas? as you guys have been discussing, probably not. are they going to go as far as swift? probably not. but these would be the measures that would be the most extreme. what you are likely probable going to see is export controls and a lot more sanctions. we heard last time, two of those

bigger financial institutions in russia. jonathan: i think this point is really important. you went through the big sanctions and then said probably not. i am trying to work out what it would take to trigger them. we are talking about a russian leader vowing to demilitarize the country and replace its leaders. the latest report suggests this goes far beyond donbass now. what would it take to trigger the strongest sanctions? when is it probably and not probably not? annmarie: i write a fantastic article, and a camera member who was quoted on it, that said the russians will get to kiev before they enact and take them off of swift. that is how difficult it would be unwinding russia from this global financial system that has millions of transactions a day. it is like the gmail of finance. it one time finance minister in russia said in 2014 that when

putin recognized crimea as a state, 24 hours later he annexed crimea. it will be painful for europe, for the america -- for america, and the entire world. lisa: have you heard a shift in tone among european leaders as they convene in terms of how much pain they are willing to take in the scale of oil and gas prices surging? maria: this is such a difficult question because when we say europe, we have 27 countries that will have to agree on a package today when they meet in about five hours here in brussels. when you speak to the baltics, they say we should have done nuclear, we should have gone for the big sanctions. this was about the future of ukraine and taking ownership of the capital. we know now that there is heavy fighting in odessa, heavy fighting in eastern ukraine, and

heavy fighting through belarus. we do know by the same token that countries like italy worry about luxury goods on a day like today. it does have an impact on their economy. the germans say if we go full on tonight, does it guarantee peace tomorrow? probably not. tom: it will be amazing to see where we are in 24 hours. i have an kodaly naive question, and you are so good -- and incredibly naive question, and you are so good at answering my dumb questions. is a u.s. soldier or sailor different, is it a u.s. soldier or sailor or a nato soldier or sailor? annmarie: the president has said repeatedly he would not send u.s. troops to ukraine. he will send u.s. troops to bolster the nato flank. but when you are talking about

nato, you don't put on a nato uniform if you are an american soldier. you go there as an american and you work alongside your nato allied countries, german, french, etc. we are likely seeing is still more swift movement of american soldiers that are there for nato bolstering, that are places like greece or germany, moving to the baltics, lithuania, latvia, estonia, and primarily poland. poland is now potentially a new contact line between nato and russia. jonathan: excuse the leg which i'm about to use here, but is there a list ready to go to pull the trigger on for sanctions? or are they having that debate still? annmarie: i think there is a list. there has to be a list, right? the united states has been coming to their credit, the intelligence was absolutely correct. this was not just about donbass and eastern ukraine, so far in what we are seeing in the movement in ukraine.

this is potentially about the entire country and moving past the donbass, past eastern ukraine, which vladimir putin said was always supposed to be part of russia. there's definitely a list. they are probably just fine-tuning it. we can say that because when a put the first tranche on, and now there are no more tranches, this is it, but when we asked why did you not go harder on what many were expecting, they started to talk about what the next actions were going to be. so they are probably just going through a finetooth comb of what it is going to be, but we should note the most instrumental thing they could do to stop president putin would be cutting off, sanctioning oil and gas the way it has done to venezuela and iran, and cutting russia off of swift. that is unlikely to happen. lisa: are we expecting announcement either today or

tomorrow about a further release of oil reserves in the u.s.? annmarie: potentially. when you're talking about brent north of $100 april and wti closing in on that -- $100 a barrel and wti closing in on that, this was always in the toolbox. if not, they are drawing up plans to. they will also be in touch with other producers and consumers around the world, and not just for oil. lng is going to be huge to secure europe for the remainder of the winter. jonathan: stay close. we will be catching up a lot through the next several hours. maria taddeo out of brussels, thank you. look at the airlines. this is not pretty. the airlines are down hard, off by 5.6%, 5.7%, 5.5%. it is going to get more and more expensive to meet that demand. tom: it is. what is important here is there's a market move, and when annmarie mentions brent crude at

$105, my question is, why aren't we had wondered $18 -- why aren't we at $118? the rate of change, that is what is not being reported, the military rate of change of russia linked into market rate of change. jonathan: there's some to weigh risk i think we should emphasize. the escalation we are seeing is one come upside risk to crude. there is the potential for a deal with iran. jp morgan, we get this escalation, and they see crude at one under $10 in q2 2022 -- at $110 in q2 2022. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date

with news from around the world with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. russia has begun a full-scale invasion of ukraine. the country is being pounded by a barrage of missile, artillery and air attacks. ukraine has reported dozens of casualties. russia's president vladimir putin is vowing to, and his words, demilitarize the country and replace its leaders. president biden will speak to the nation after a virtual meeting with other g7 leaders. bloomberg has learned the biden administration may tap its emergency supply of oil again, in coordination with allies. the price of oil surged past $100 a barrel after russia's attacks in ukraine. the russian invasion is jeopardizing the chances of reaching an agreement with iran on its nuclear program. world powers at the negotiating table find themselves on opposite sides of europe's biggest security crisis since world war ii.

envoys have suggested a successful conclusion could be days away, but the u.s. and iran still have to resolve some key differences -- still have to resolve some key differences. moderna has signed $22 billion in orders for its coronavirus vaccine, up slightly from january. moderna is racing with rivals to ramp up production and sell its covid shots around the world. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. "bloomberg surveillance ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> president putin, and the name of humanity, bring your troops

back to russia. in the name of humanity, do not allow to start in europe what could be the worst war since the beginning of the century. jonathan: really powerful words from the secretary-general of the united nations. good morning to you all. futures down on the s&p, on the nasdaq 100 by 3.4% come on the s&p by 2.7%. staring down a bear market right now. yields lower 11 basis points to 1.8767%. crude up 8%. this line from evercore, typically in markets, people looking to fade the move. there's a feeling this morning that this geopolitical shift is more than just a small geopolitical shift. we are waking up to a very different europe and trying to

work out what that actually looks like over the next several years. this is the line from evercore on why they don't want to fade this and why they are not ready to at the moment. "the wave of the stagflationary energy shock combined with sanctions disruptions will affect central banks' engi neering of a safe landing from the inflation surge." tom: the keyword is engineer. we are talking about what is the response to what wei li of blackrock said is a regime change. what are the movables within the potential engineering? the bosporus straits off of istanbul. you mentioned the other immovables, hydrocarbons in europe. what does a gas bill due 50,000

more so 50 miles north of london -- gas bill do 50 miles north of london? of course, we had kona with us earlier on wheat. let us get back to what we do, which is financial instruments. on radio, we are looking at the explosion in price of dutch natural gas. let's go to what we do with gene tannuzzo, head of fixed income at columbia threadneedle. how do you be opportunistic in the yield space? what do you do or not do on a historic day like this? gene: it is a good question. it is certainly a challenging environment. i thing we have to look back and appreciate how much the environment has changed from a valuation perspective in the last year and a half. we were sitting here in august 2020 and would have said interest rates would have

quadrupled on the 10 year treasury from then until now. stocks would have been up over 16%, at least as of the end of last week. i think we would have said this is a time you are supposed to be adding more fixed income exposure. in the heat of the moment, i think the market has been looking the other way because the focus over the last six weeks has been front and center, the federal reserve and accelerating the tightening path. but i think we are in a situation now where there is two-sided risk in the market, and we are seeing downside chocks with room to go lower. tom: what is the partition on a historic day like this between full faith in credit and a true credit market? what are the dynamics between government paper and corporate paper? gene: certainly credit risk is weaker, but the starting point of fundamentals is actually quite strong. we can see that on the consumer and corporate balance sheet in the u.s.

it has been amazing that through this inflationary environment, particularly large corporations have been able to maintain margins. the starting point is exceptionally strong. the cost of capital for these businesses remains exceptionally low. i think the vulnerabilities are not as high on the corporate side right now. lisa: what we are seeing right now in markets and beyond from a geopolitical standpoint is shifting the narrative quite a bit. we are hearing a lot of discussion about stagflation, a lot of discussion about whether the fed can engineer a soft landing, which is how we began this segment. do you think it looks practically impossible at this point, given the price of oil should oil stay where it is? gene: it is not impossible, but this is a stagflationary shock. we need to think about how central banks will react to that. i think to understand that, we need to understand the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the real economy. that transmission mechanism is

through financial conditions. so financial conditions really manifest themselves in three ways. it is access to capital for consumers and companies, it is asset prices, and it is animal spirits. access to capital is still there, given the strength of the balance sheet. animal spirits are starting to change, and we can see that with the consumer confidence data we got this week. and asset prices have already adjusted meaningfully. so two of those three pillars are going to have a real negative impact on growth, and in a way it is doing the fed's work for them. even though oil prices were up today, the fed unfortunately can't control that. tom: gene tannuzzo, thank you so much. michael mckee will join us in seven minutes on economic data within ending usual time and give us his -- within an unusual time and give us his perspective.

i go back to your time of gorbachev, and there were two leaders, and then suddenly yeltsin. you have lived the regime change of russia. how did the russian people react after her child and i'll of that and what you experienced very much -- after orbit child and all of that -- after gorbachev and all of that, how do the russian people react to moscow? michael: i spent a lot of time in russia, and the russian people were very excited because they saw a change in their economic fortunes coming for the better. for a number of years, they hadn't. now things are going to get worse. the issue for the russians is that vladimir putin has basically eliminated the opposition as a public thing, so it is hard for them to rally around much. tom: can you imagine the imf spring meetings? they will be original, will today? michael: let's see how long this

goes. a lot of this depends on what happens. we are in the fog of war. by the time the imf comes around, we can hope that this is over and that there is some sort of positive outcome, but right now it is too early to say. if indeed this is still going on, the sanctions that are going to be introduced, the price of energy is going to have a major impact on the global economy, so that would be the chief topic at the imf. jonathan: thank you. stagflation becomes a real conversation. have you seen the movie in real yields? on tens, down about 26 basis points. on fives, even more. for the bond market, that is where the focus is. tom: spx futures deteriorate. dow futures, -855. again, i would just say the speed of change of the military operations directly affecting what we see in the markets. jonathan: the window to engineer a soft landing, so many people,

was already really small. this morning, it gets smaller. we are staring down a bear market for the nasdaq 100. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: breaking economic data moments away. for some of you this data feels very dated. futures down on the s&p. on the nasdaq down 3.5%. with your economic numbers here is michael mckee. michael: jobless claims of just come out, 232,000, a little bit less than forecast. down from last week's original estimate of 300 -- of 248,000. we are also expecting gdp to come out. 7%, which is a tick higher than the 6.9% originally reported. we will see if that is consumer spending that went up or inventories. probably little bit of both. we are waiting for the gdp price

index, that is what will keep everybody's attention as oil prices skyrocket. we are in a situation where the data do not matter. it is what happens going forward , particular what happens in the commodities market. jonathan: i wonder what matters going into march 16 and how any of this changes the fed. lisa went through how many fed speakers we have today. lisa: 25 or 26? jonathan: something like four or five or six. michael: i think they will say exactly what they can say, which is nothing. they will have to say we do not know. we are in the fog of war. one thing we will say is what we know is not correct. it will take a real picture of what it will mean for the economy. a lot of that will depend on what kind of sanctions are introduced by the u.s. or the europeans. if it is a matter of rising oil prices the fed will probably look through that.

they do not want to be easing into an oil crisis as they did in the 1970's. the same with the ecb. the issue is it is the growth story and if it is a growth story they have a harder decision to make, probably the slow down the pace of rate increases. the ecb pushes back the timing of rate increases. i do not think at this point any of them are likely to add stimulus. it is a question of damage mitigation and that will depend on what tack that takes, whether it is growth or inflation. it -- if it is growth, we have a problem. lisa: we definitely feel little bit humbled talking about fed policy on a day when we are facing up with the humanitarian crisis in ukraine at the invasion does continue to escalate by russia. i am looking at the economic fallout with the continuous

jobless claims in the united states falling to the lowest level since the 1970's. how much did we see a stagflationary environment with an employment market as hot as it is? michael: the employment market can turn is that is the question for the fed. do we see a slowing in demand? the odds are we do not see a huge impact because united states is relatively isolated, but supply chain problems could push up inflation and energy prices, which could then put a damper on consumer spending, business investment, and then what you do? raising interest rates or lowering interest rates makes the situation worse. if you had to bet on anything it might be the fed slows down to watch what is going on. jonathan: michael mckee, thank you as always. this whole curve just drops more than 10 basis points. tom: very fluid. real movement in the yield

space. the ruble is weakening. not the shock of 11:00 last night but nevertheless markets on the move. we adjust as morgan stanley economics robert rosener joins us now. steven englander at standard has been resilient before the historic moment of the 5, 6, seven rate hike team may be a little off the mark. you adjust back down to three rate hikes this morning? robert: thanks for having me. we still see the fed on track to raise interest rates in march by 25 basis rides. of course there is down increased degree of uncertainty in the economic outlook. the fed has to weigh what they are seeing in terms of domestic economic conditions than the inflationary backdrop. the fed has to weigh that against the potential risks to the economic outlook. tom: let's go back to the korean

war. as is the point where the white house says to chairman powell we need your help, this is what we would like you to do? robert: the fed will maintain its independence in monetary policy, but the fed has to ask important questions. this is not the first time the fed's had to grapple with domestic economic conditions that might call for rate hikes but international conditions that present risk to the economic outlook. that is a lot away. -- that is a lot to weigh. it does help the fed with debates we are having about 50 points or 25 basis whites. it makes that -- or 25 basis points. the fed does not want to get caught back footed if risks to the economic outlook do not seem as significant. jonathan: are you ready to use the word stagflation? robert: i do not think we are there yet.

this is the type of financial condition shop that pushes inflation and activity. oil prices will put upward pressure on headline and patient. that adds to the multitude of inflationary shops we are seeing it -- inflationary shocks we are seeing. you look at where the labor market is today and that could turn, but we have surprised by the resiliency of the labor market u.s. consumer as remaining the heart beat of this economic expansion. lisa: what is the redline for oil prices? you have a sense of how high prices can get before you start talking about a downshift in the pace of economic growth? robert: we are seeing the effective oil prices on consumer wallets. every tencent increase in retail gas prices is about a $10 billion annualized it to consumer budgets that has been stacking up, and it is been stacking up with other inflationary pressures. we've been seeing real wages in

the red for most groups at the lower end of the wake spectrum. if energy keeps creeping up, i think that is where you start to get more concerned about the pace of consumer activity before we get to the second half of the year. lisa: is there a precedent for how quickly the economy can shift in response to a shock like this given all of the strength you've been talking about we are seeing in corporate balance sheets and beyond? robert: absolutely. things can certainly turn fast. it comes down to where are the fundamentals and that is the labor market. we have seen job growth with incredible momentum from aggregate incomes grown strongly , wage growth still growing strongly. still a lot of positive tailwinds and placed up the domestic economic expansion going strong this year. things can turn fast, and when they turn fast it tends to be transmitted through this financial shocks, and we have

seen how the fed has been responsive to developments like that very quickly in the past. that pivoting style we see from chair powell is likely to remain in his toolkit. tom: we rationalized that if inflation -- do we rationalized that if inflation is 100 basis once higher-than-expected or the timeline is extended out of a longer and patient, how the phd's at the fed adapt that? robert: typically you look at an energy price shop and think that might be transitory, but it is occurring against this backdrop of a multitude of inflationary shocks. it pushes the dual mandate because you have energy prices lifting inflation but also you have to be watchful for the downside risk for activities that could potentially have down

the line. jonathan: wonderful as always. difficult moment for you and the team i imagine you'll be talking all morning about what this means. if you're just tuning in, down 2.5% on the s&p. futures on the nasdaq down more than 3%. started down the barrel of a bear market on the nasdaq. that was building up coming into this. then you introduce geopolitics. i would say maximum uncertainty on what this means for central bank policy with crude at $99.73. lisa:'s oil inflationary or disinflationary when prices start going up? that is the main question undermining a lot of the moves and uncertainty. it does increase prices but does it also increase demand in a commensurate way and what does that mean for how much they should increase rates this year? jonathan: real yields are lower,

breakevens breaking out. five breakevens are the highest ever. remember when we came into this year, the story was it was time to bet against inflation and bet on higher interest rates. that story has taken a big step back. tom: there has been a regime change of that story and i would suggest the story of two or three days ago has changed. to use the populace phrase, the first derivative -- to use the calculus phrase, the first derivative is out of control. it is 3:00 p.m. in europe. they will go into the dark. jonathan: a lot of this has been building over the last 12 months and even longer for this story. it is decades. the words of vladimir putin not surprising, but deeply shopping and dark to hear the russian president say he is bowing to demilitarized the country and replace its leaders.

that is what we are waking up this morning. tom: we will continue through the morning. jon ferro, lisa abramowicz, and myself. we will go over some of the themes at 6:00. the themes at 6:00 have changed. jonathan: special coverage over the next hour. tom, lisa, and myself. commercial free from 9:00 to 9:30. futures down. the perfect guest on this equity market, mike wilson of morgan stanley. 9:00 eastern time. 20 minutes away. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. vladimir putin says the u.s. and

its allies have crossed redline so he has begun a full-scale invasion of you rain. russia launched a barrage of missile artillery and air attacks early thursday. ukraine has reported dozens of casualties and said the capital was under attack. president biden is threatening to impose more sanctions and will speak after his virtual meeting with g7 leaders. ghetto is preparing to deploy more forces to countries near you rain. the alliance is holding a summit to announce -- the biden administration has ruled in the u.s. or nato forces into you rain. the four major precious metals all rose after the russian attack. the action boosted demand for gold, silver, palladium, and platinum. it also threatens supply. -- forecast earnings growth may decelerate from 2021. the budweiser maker projected adjusted earnings of 4% this year.

citigroup wants its employees to come back to the office. it is calling workers in the u.s. to return to the market starting the week of march 21. wall street banks have pushed for employees to come back to work emptied by the pandemic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it sends a strong message to putin but it does not stop them.

it means more sanctions and a second and third wave until it becomes clear to him he should not make any steps. jonathan: that was ukrainian foreign minister yesterday evening. you choose lower 2.4% on the s&p, on the nasdaq down 3%. yields down 13. fruit lower -- proved -- crude much higher. wti up 7.8%. rent up 8%. big moves in crude this morning. tom: headlines in last 20 minutes. kathy jones of schwab with the financial chart of the day this will cover everything we speak to including our next important guest. that is the chart of the bloomberg financial conditions, which is dramatically adjusted to being less accommodative at

the markets leading more restrictive financial conditions. jonathan: are you a sru ready to say tighter? -- are you ready to say tighter? tom: thank you kathy jones of charles schwab. the great steven englander is -- is this a moment where the rest of global wall street is joined your outlier of fewer rate hikes? steven: for the time being i think the current conditions make it far less likely. mary daly yesterday alluded to that possibility. financial conditions are tightening, the risk is off. i think all global central banks will try to avoid the shop to market.

it means they're going to thrall the -- there the ball straight down the middle and try to avoid some rises. lisa: when you see an employment market as robust as it is, how does it shock the market to pick up interest rates by 25 basis waits? steven: that is not the shop -- that is not the shock. they will be conventional and explicitly so. lisa: one thing i am noting is the flight to havens. vertically in cash like instruments with one month yields turning the most negative since march 2020. are you seeing any signs of dysfunction or illiquidity pockets as people try to readjust to such uncertainty? steven: so far not really. it is nothing like 2020. he would see it if you begin to

see treasury yields going up unexpectedly for some reason. markets are very well behaved in terms of absorbing this. tom: kit jukes at socgen remodels the euro weaker to 1.09. how does that change the dialogue for christine lagarde? steven: europe is almost up -- europe is a front state when it comes to this. if risk conditions deteriorate downside possibilities can support that. we like the euro better pre-invasion. the case was much stronger. i think she will try to avoid surprising the margins in any way. she has the advantage she does not actually have to make a move. she can talk about moves that are five months or eight months in the future. i think she will be very

cautious. tom: how the markets react to a steven englander world? i would suggest a wide body of global participants have framed a much more restrictive set of central banks. you've pushed against that for months. where will we see fake figure changes that could be opportunistic in this time of war -- where will we see big figure changes that could be opportunistic in this time of war? steven: i think we will see a north-south divide. lower rates in the u.s. -- in your probably not great for activity because what you get from the yields you lose from the risk aversion. southern hemisphere commodity exporters, everybody is demented their products. once things settle down in e.m. and g10, i think those currencies will do well. lisa: as we speak there people hunkering down in kyiv trying to

protect themselves and their families from the attacks that are now on coming from the russian invasion we keep hearing. as we look forward, it seems unlikely we will see a rolling over and some of the inflationary inputs, not only oil but commodities more broadly. talking about how we have never seen all commodity sectors rising in tandem in response to some sort of shock. how does that feature into what the fed does? how to the message -- how do they message more dovish tilt than what markets are currently pricing? steven: you can think of it as another supplies shock and it means they will be somewhat cautious. you have to respond by getting demand in line with supply, but you do not have to do it overnight. they will be very careful to gauge what is coming back, what is the new normal and adjust.

one thing to get inflation back down but not being sure if the potential slowing of the economy will do that for them. it makes them more careful to slow things down. jonathan: wonderful to hear from you as always. let's reset and talk about where we have been. waking up overnight to tanks rolling into ukraine. very strong words from the russian president who vowed to demilitarized the country and replace its leaders. we started to here quickly it was more about -- it was more than just about the separatists in the donbas. the headline that broke that russian military vehicles had reached the kyiv certainly got attention from us. now it is the reaction from the west. we understand the president for vw to of the national security council in the situation room.

we understand also we will hear from the president later. tom: we will hear what will happen date two. not only what will happen with vladimir putin but for the allies. we mentioned troops going to the baltic states. that was reported a number of hours ago. in the financial world, what i think is stunning is the movement in the real yield is a massive five standard deviations since valentine's day. the readjustment of the real yield to a new regime is the headline financial story. jonathan: it is a big move lower. the move in breakevens breaking out in a big way. steven: this speaks -- lisa: this speaks to the conundrum the ecb will have, the fed will have. inflation will rise in the short term. today respond to that by getting more dovish? jonathan: we will be sticking with you through the next hour

into the opening bell commercial free. joining us, mike wilson, elyse ausenbaugh, and erik knutzen to get your heads around what all this means for the market. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: on bloomberg tv and radio, special coverage with tom

keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. the countdown to the open starts now. we begin with the big issue. russia invades ukraine. vladimir putin delivering a warning for those standing in the way, saying "whoever tries to interfere should know russia's response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you've never experienced in your history." ukrainian president declaring martial law and saying we are strong, we are ready for everything. the u.s. have already started uniting international support. u.s. quickly condemning the attack, president biden writing russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring and the united states and its allies will respond in a united and decisive way. team coverage starts right now. maria tadeo from brussels, annmarie hordern in d.c. the