dani: i'm dani burger in london with manus cranny in dubai, and these are the stories that set your agenda. manus: russia's war against ukraine intensifies. rockets strike kyiv as officials warned that the capital could fall. the u.s. and its allies ramp-up sanctions on russian energy and swift are exempt.

president biden vows severe costs to put in's actions. futures remain mixed. brent remains above $100. the fed sticks to its resolve to raise rates next month. dani, good to have you back on the show. it is a tough time. 7% whip around in the markets. the brave make career defining trades in moments like this. it is the beginning of war and often leads to short-term vol. look to the current market dislocation to address conditions. welcome back. dani: thanks, manus. good to be back after an eventful day, an event that will continue to unfold. part of what we have been debating and where markets saw the opportunity is the strength of sanctions or perceived lack of strength of sanctions coming from europe and the u.s.. this is what javier blas writes, that the u.s. is financing the

war in ukraine by buying hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of russian resources a day. either stop buying them or find a way to stop the payments. it is the only thing he come up putin, is unlikely to have priced in. manus: roll out the playbook. the saudis did it to the russians, and guess who won? they yen was strong. tenure paper had a 15 basis point drop. we are back on the fed narrative. talks about a 50 basis point hike in march. brent above $100. jp morgan says 125 dollars because of the incapacity of russia to deliver on their side of the bargain on production. is there more pain to come on the ruble? it did pare its worst losses. how are the equities? dani: it might be a case of saul

the rumor, by the news, or a case of rallying. either way, strong session in terms of asia-pacific, up by 1%. the u.s. staged a rebound. at that rebound in the u.s. stalling this morning with tech underperforming. nasdaq futures down. manus: we will check in on some of those russian assets as they open through the morning. president biden has imposed new sanctions on russia. western nations are warning that ukraine's capital, kyiv, could fall. the last reading was 80 kilometers away from the capital. reporters from around the world join us on the situation on the ground. henry, let's get to you first of all. the very latest. i was chasing it a little earlier that sanctions takes time to work and this ratcheting

up of sanctions won't stop putin for now. >> good morning. what we see is the offensive. in its at -- in its second day. it has advanced at lightning speed. russian troops yesterday entered ukraine from three directions and now they are encircling the capital. what happened yesterday is it started the offensive with a barrage of missile strikes, airstrikes, artillery strikes. they wiped out ukrainian air defense installations and apparently the entire air force. they have control of the skies. we are seeing strikes on the capital, kyiv, and the russians are really intense on bringing a fairly speedy end to this. dani: henry, thank you. bruce, let's bring you into the picture. bruce einhorn, let's dig into the latest from the u.s. president biden is ramping up sanctions but he is not

targeting the energy sector. there were also questions about whether or not he would ban russia from swift. what has been the reaction in terms of not getting the harshest of sanctions from the u.s.? >> there are calls on capitol hill to do just that, to include swift from both democrats and republicans. the president's point was there is no consensus among the allies on that and the concern about swift and energy payments would be this is inflicting a lot of harm on european countries. so there is still no agreement among the allies about that. that said, the sanctions that the president did announce include sanctions on five financial institutions that the u.s. says has about $1 trillion in assets, about 80% of all banking assets in russia targeted by these sanctions. there are also sanctions on state owned enterprises.

there are sanctions to prevent russia from getting access to technology products like software and semiconductors, and the u.s. can prevent those from being sold to russia from third countries as well. those are the sanctions that the president did apply. clearly there is going to be more talk about getting swift into that as well, as possibly -- as well as possibly other things. manus: on swift, they cannot act unilaterally. let's get to brussels. she has had a late night. the eu leaders had a special summit. what was the shift in language for you from when she went in to when she came out? >> i think what was really clear is that all the way through they were expressed selling -- expressing a unified front the

prospects of committing to something that could really hurt europe, they had to acknowledge in their responses to questions following this meeting that really europe's reliance on russian energy is not something that can change overnight and they have to think about a midterm and more longer-term strategy to properly decouple from the russian energy market. dani: there could be possibly huge economic consequences of trying to pursue some of those sanctions. let's get over to lizzie bergen, who is at downing street. boris johnson floated the idea of removing russia from swift. what are the details on sanctions coming from the u.k.? >> boris johnson is in a difficult position because a lot of the sanctions he introduced were criticized as meaningless, not just by the opposition labour party but also by some of his own mp's and city executives. he has come back without

harshest sanctions britain has ever imposed, including a faries on major -- including a freeze on major russian banks. he wants to go even further, 2:00 russian access to swift. but the problem is he will need the cooperation of his western colleagues and germany is holding back. on top of that, there is always the risk that these measures could backfire, given how closely they have courted russian wealth. manus: absolutely. team, thank you very much. henry, bruce, aggi, lizzy. the very latest market reaction, let's get to juliette saly. we saw a violent whip around in u.s. equities. how is asia bearing up? juliette: pretty relative calm coming through on asian equities today after we had stocks fall

to their lowest level since november 2020 yesterday. as you pointed out, we are seeing weakness coming through on u.s. equity futures, suggesting this could caution about russia's move into ukraine still remains. you see the standing reversal on the nasdaq, and alibaba rebounding from a record low. that is boosting the hang seng, which fell by more than 4% yesterday, and is reflected in the bond market. we saw the yield on australia's 10 year drop by some 11 basis points yesterday, up by about 7.5% today. let's have a look at this chart. calm coming through in terms of an injection of liquidity by the pboc, suggesting they are trying to bring some cash and calm to these markets. we saw about $46 billion added through their seven-day reverse repo agreement, the most since september 2020. they are saying this is a suggestion that easing from the

pboc is continuing. we are seeing a lot of concerns worried about the risk to asia. morgan stanley saying this would likely be reflected in the china and taiwan markets. dani: juliette, thank you. we are talking about russia stocks, keeping everybody updated on what trading looks like. yesterday, moscow issued a statement saying they have canceled the morning session. it looks like trading might start at 6:50 a.m. london time in the securities market, but at least for this hour, we do not yet have a read on where those russian markets are opening after wiping out hundreds of billions of dollars in terms of market cap. coming up, we will look at how markets are reacting to the deepening russian-ukraine conflict. ♪ manus: our guest joins us, this looks person for the french foreign ministry, later this hour. ♪

>> we cut off russia's largest bank, a bank that holds more than one third of russia's banking assets by itself. cut it off from the u.s. financial system. >> we will of course use britain's position in every international forum to condemn the onslaught against ukraine. >> we took a political decision to add an additional package of mass sanctions, which will be painful for the russian regime. >> we will never tolerate any attempt to change the status quo by force. they will tighten sanctions and a stand in solidarity with the international community. >> a choice, it elaborate choice was taken consciously by

president putin to launch a war. >> we will continue on a mission to squeeze russia from the global economy piece by piece, day by day, and week by week. >> now we have to meet the moment. we will hold the kremlin accountable. >> we are not going to harm the world economy system we are a part of as long as we are part of it. i believe our partners have to understand and not aim to push us out of the system. dani: world leaders reacting to the russian invasion of ukraine as we keep top of the leaders reaction. we also keep track of the market reaction. a remarkable turnaround. it is calm, especially when you compare it to the fear that were in the markets just 24 hours ago. gold, brent crude, s&p futures, 10 year yield up on the board for us. manus: you are seeing a shift

back to the fed narrative, 50 basis point hike in march, 100 basis points by july, and a continued balance sheet runoff. brent at over $100. let's look at how prepared russia was for these sanctions. he is the senior executive officer. good to see you. you have made clear to me that the trading relationships between russia and china is where there is a flow of preparedness for even the worst sanctions that could be brought to bear. take us through your thesis. guest: if we look at china, china and russia have been working together extensively. what you see is a new paradigm, i.e. east and west once again as in back in the 80's. you now have china, russia -- russia did not act.

we have seen over time when russia increased their chinese allocations, whether it is in currency or fixed income, china has been very active. we noticed this even with the europeans sanctioning russia by the euro, the dollar, the yen in asia. you effectively have a main conduit in the quick currency, which is china's won. they now have a plan b. dani: this has been discussed a lot, especially in terms of this idea of fortress russia. it is not just their use of the yuan, but the twin surpluses they have raised. it is the insulation of their economy. just how insulated would you describe russia at this point to potential sanctions that could be levied further against them? guest: again, i don't believe that the russian government will

take actions based on what the sanctions will be. i am sure they understood what that sanctions were coming. they are not unprepared. the whole point right now is for putin to find the alternative source for his import-export market, which he does, he has asia. i don't think this is a surprise to him. we are not seeing a confrontation between nato and russia. in that sense, you are seeing this rally last night after biden's comments. manus: let's extrapolate on that. as long as there is no further escalation in conflict, are you a buyer of risk? are you a believer in the scott minerd tweet, which is often war leads to short-term vol? is this a buy in opportunity? what do you do? guest: my problem with that

comment, i believe in the short-term we do have a bounce because this has not been a surprise. this has been a very well telegraphed attack. that comment implies there is extension in terms of the conflicts, i.e. spending on military or other industries that help the market. what i think in this situation you have is risk reduction. this was a well telegraphed event. market makers and hedge funds were position for this. there is no surprise. the only surprise is the speed of the sanctions, especially from the u.k. dani: saed, you say this is not a surprise, but it was at least a tail risk, right? this was not people's base case scenario. look what happened with russian assets yesterday. was it really something everybody expected yesterday? guest: i think if you look at

equity markets, you would see there was a tremendous amount of hedging preevent. this was not a surprise. the only surprise is that people are surprised in the retail and banking space. most of the hedge fund space community were well prepared after the 20th of february that he would actually act. manus: who lost yesterday? was it weak retail? institutional money was already well prepared. guest: i think from my side, we were long because liquidity was unknown for the ruble. for us, poland was our position. what we saw yesterday was liquidation and now making russia on bankable, whether it is through fixed income or payments in the dollar system.

i think that is when the time came and you had a rush of assets leaving russia because now you have and on bankable russia -- now you have an unbankable russia, whether it is fixed income, equities, you have a rush to exit because it is not worth being there. ubs marked their clients down to zero, which means you can buy the bond in the market, but in the books it is zero. manus: dani is going to jump in. would you buy russian bond? guest: i think there's better places to be than russia. manus: dani, jump in. dani: russian bonds not for you. what does this market have left to digest and a price in when it comes to the ukrainian crisis after yesterday's volatility? guest: obviously, ukraine is a primary exporter of wheat and agricultural goods.

this is going to impact european inflation. look at what we are seeing with natural gas. when it comes down to food goods, we come down to basic supplies. that is what is hitting consumers in europe and the u.s. i think that is something to watch over time. the biggest risk right now with ukraine is the u.s. proxy nato forces in ukraine, which would escalate the political stress between the u.s. and nato and russia. if we see that separatists were backed separatists or the regime after it falls, if it falls, being backed by external factors like nato, that could become the new cold war extension. dani: i am glad you mentioned central banks. we will have to dive into that. you will stick around with us. man is won't let you leave. saed abukarsh.

coming up, we will continue the conversation with saed about how markets are reacting. what else can you buy? how will central banks react? all that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we had russia in the medium risk cap in terms of its ability to deliver production. that $30 risk premium is here to stay. it is not reversible. that is regardless of whether we see a change in production from russia. they just will not be able to deliver that or live up to it by virtue of not having the funding. in that context, we can see

prices moving to $125 and is staying there. dani: christyan malek talking about $125 for oil given the supply issues. still with us is saed abukarsh. saed, this this market and should this market be pricing in an oil shock? guest: i think we have a semi-oil shock already. it has become very clear that the u.s. will not tolerate oil above $100. there will be more release of the reserves. but the shock up to $110, $120, i think further actions by russia escalate in the risk is there. that spike is possible, but anything over $110, $120? i doubt that in the short term

because we are headed towards a a slowdown. dani: we are in a -- manus: we are in an inflationary environment. does it turn into stagflation? guest: you have every central bank moving to a more hawkish stance. they are dammed if they don't, damned it they do. there are two scenarios. one where they progressively raise rates, which is the purser preferred soft landing. or they try to catch up with inflation, which has become an issue in europe and the u.s. biden met with the fed before he spoke. what we now know is this inflation cycle is very important for the u.s.. i think at this point in time, we are looking at a situation barbie could see stagflation risk as the fed hikes in this late cycle. dani: we had markets start to

pull back on their bets of a 50 basis point hike yesterday, yet waller comes out overnight and says he is open to debate whether we need that 50 basis point hike. are we at a point where inflation will be so exacerbated by this crisis that we need to slam on the brakes? about one minute here. guest: i think the fed controls the market. 25 basis points -- we are talking about semantics. 25 now, 25 next month, and so forth. we are talking about an out of session hike by the fed. the fed wants a hike. it is better to go with the pain up front in move 50 basis points because they have to catch up with inflation. they are well behind the curve. they are definitely looking to move to be in front of the curve. this is the shift the market is waiting for in the next meeting, whether they actually move toward catching up.

manus: calling for the fed to man up. let's see this when you are back. saed abukarsh is our guest this money, senior executive behold...unlimited wireless for only 30 bucks. that's pretty cool, but you know what's cooler? saving up to 400 bucks! exactly. and if we really want to take it up a notch... get all that and nationwide 5g included. oh nice shot, send that to me. i got you. break free from the big three and get connected to the nations most reliable 5g network. get the new samsung galaxy s22 series on xfinity mobile. and right now, save big with up to $750 off a new samsung device. switch today.

manus: it is "daybreak: europe." manus: russia -- dani: russia's war against ukraine intensifies. rockets strike kyiv. the u.s. and allies ramp-up sanctions come about russian energy and a swift are exempt. still, president biden vows severe costs for putin's actions.

brent trades above $100. the fed sticks to its resolve to raise rates next month. it has been an eventful 24 hours. geopolitics and the humanitarian crisis that in full. it was an extreme turnaround, the nasdaq ending the day up by more than 3%. as you pointed out, scott minerd saying there are buying opportunities in these moments. manus: as saed abukarsh just pointed out very clearly to us, the risk of escalation is very real. the risk of real conflict is very real. do the people of ukraine suffer more as they tried to exit the country? the image is powerful. the story is literally evolving, a country in crisis politically and socially, and to that end we have had that juxtaposition

between what you see as the terror for people of ukraine with what is happening in global markets and how markets are reacting. scott minerd says at moments like this, it is a tough time. but markets look through these atrocities. unfortunately, they look for opportunities. they have already said, fast money is very much hedged. what you probably saw yesterday was the tail end of this people who are unhedged, unprepared, more retail than institutional. dani: the second order effects that markets will have to grapple with, that is what saed talked to us about as well, is what happens with inflation? what happens to this economy when you see natural gas prices moving more than two standard deviations? it is this inflationary picture and how central banks

cope with it is what we will have to deal with. manus: still a slight sense of hedging going on. the bond market dropping 15 basis point yesterday. it managed to rally itself back up, leaning into the risk of a 50 basis point hike coming through from waller. brent above $101. "daybreak: europe110 is possible -- $110 is possible. commodities are now at on all-time high as president biden imposes sanctions on russia, with western nations warning that ukraine's capital of kyiv could fall. henry meyer is for us in moscow. henry, how close are russian troops to moscow? the latest position on the ground. do we know whether it will stop at kyiv? reporter: what is happening is

we are an hour into the second day of this massive assault, and yesterday russian forces entered ukraine from three directions. it started with a huge barrage of missile strikes, of air, artillery strikes. they wiped out the ukrainian air defenses entirely, and now they are encircling the capital, kyiv . the ukrainian president zelensky is vowing to resist, but as we speak, there are airstrikes on the capital. things are looking very grim. russia clearly wants to try and bring this to an end as quickly as possible. but of course, the possibility exists for huge civilian casualties. dani: henry, across the u.s., eight u.k., an eu yesterday, new sections were announced that stopped short of the most severe, from 80% of all banking assets in the u.s. being

sanctioned to the eu emergency summit yesterday. what is the likely impact that these newly announced sanctions will have on russia? reporter: clearly, what they will do is isolate russia from the international financial markets, and interestingly on the issue of high-tech exports, that is also going to have quite an impact. but obviously, putin and the kremlin have factored this in. the main things that have not been touched are the energy exports and swift. there is no cut off of swift. that means that russia can continue to sell its oil and gas and commodities. yes, they are painful sanctions, but they are certainly not enough to change russia's behavior. dani: henry, thank you very much. henry meyer in moscow. joining manus and me now is andrew gilmour, executive director of the brokaw

foundation, an organization that works on conflict resolution, and the u.n. assistant secretary general for human rights. thank you for joining us this morning. through your whole life, you have worked in conflict resolution and human rights. you have held positions in conflict zones. given your experience, how would you describe the escalation and pace of moves we have seen in ukraine over the past 24 hours? guest: i would say -- it is the biggest event of my lifetime. this is the most astonishing thing. however many warnings we got from u.s. intelligence, it turned out to be absolutely correct in their assessments about what could happen. there has not been since 1939 when germany invaded poland, there has not been a war that started with an invasion of one

country in europe or one country by another. this is huge. that is how i would characterize this. manus: andrew, good to have you with us. that is a pretty gargantuan call to say something that we are experiencing is the biggest thing you have seen in your life, bigger than 9/11. are we under assuming the scale up that we could see and how long this could last? guest: i have no idea how long it will last or how far he wants to go. i would not have expected it. despite the intentions, i wouldn't have assumed we were going to get this because it is hard for me or anybody to say, why does he think this is necessary? what it was a threat to?

in 2014, they overthrew a dictator. that is the threat. the idea is that a liberal democracy could take root, and that might undermine what he is doing in moscow. i cannot imagine [indiscernible] dani: when you described a shock at the pace of how things have moved, and a surprise that many saw even though the u.s. intelligence was spot on, how does the west respond to the fast pace of these changes? guest: it is nothing to do with the west in 1991, when they were

sent to push back that aggression. but clearly they are taking measures. the sanctions that are going to be put in place are not going to reverse this decision. none of this is going back now, but clearly the response is it has to be costly for him. he can't get away with it with no cost. manus: these set of sanctions those far will not stop him. our reporters have said, stop talking about sanctions as something which stops putin overnight. it is something which has got to build, deliver pain, enduring pain. an oil reporter and op-ed with the team says what we need is a replaying of the saudi-russian

implosion in 2020. the west is actually financing putin's war in ukraine, buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of natural resources. either stop buying them or find a way to stop the payments. what is the jugular that would really impact putin and russia? is it cut off swift, or is it something much more demonstrative, which is to tackle this oil and gas exports more directly? guest: that clearly would be -- the governors are not prepared to take that decision. there is no jugular for this. i understand very well, but there is no jugular for this. london and them are able to buy so much and run their

operations. in germany, they need the oil and the gas pipeline, nord stream. there is no jugular peer. dani: you say it is obvious you don't want troops there, you don't want to start a war with russia, but even though it is probably worth reiterating. why do you think it does not make sense to deploy more troops? nato says they will not do this. deploy more troops on the ground in ukraine. guest: russia is an extremely important power with nuclear weapons and nobody wants to pick a fight with them. this is really clear-cut. what happened in 1994, the americans, russians, and the british made an agreement with the ukrainians they would give up their massive nuclear arsenal in return for security.

they have been ripped up. the west should be ashamed. it has got to a stage where putin is able to do that. but short of full on more, i just rushed full on war -- on war, i don't see them ready to take that on. manus: as we let you go, we are about to speak to the advisor of the french foreign ministry. the west has failed. has europe spectacularly failed in its support of ukraine? how would you describe europe's response, as we go to france next? guest: putin has made his cocky elation's because he thought the west was united. he thought what trump had done threatened nato. we saw what was happening in the

u.k. with brexit. he assumed the divisions in the west would not be strong. they have to have the unity that the west has been lacking in recent years. manus: andrew, thank you for joining us. andrew gilmour executive director for the berchof foundation. boris johnson has unveiled his set of sanctions and it is the biggest ever. how could it impact the british economy, as you just heard from andrew, in terms of running organizations, buying swathes of property in london. what is the economic blowback to the u.k.? reporter: the ukrainian flags flying over downing street, but for all the outward display of solidarity that could not be a worse time to pile pressure on

the cost of living in the u.k., but that is exactly what this war will do by pushing up food and energy prices here in the u.k. even though the u.k. is directly reliant on russian gases, it will up competition for liquefied gas. it they could push up the energy gas company on top of the rise in april. that will intensify the political crisis, but also the bank headache because the weight on consumer confidence will drag on the recovery. it means that a supersized rate hike is looking less likely. dani: lizzy, thank you very much. that is lizzy burden. coming up from the economic consequence, the french perspective. we will speak with anne-claire legendre, spokeswoman for the french foreign ministry. don't miss that conversation next. ♪

dani: welcome back. i'm dani burger in london, with manus cranny in dubai. we continue to see some effect of sell the rumor, buy the news, or perhaps a reaction to sanctions that were not as severe as some speculated. you are looking at the gmm screen. equities in china up by 0.9%, but elsewhere we are seeing european futures with a strong rebound as well. manus: indeed. let's get our next guest. the eu leaders have backed a strong sanctions package to limit russia's access to europe's financial sector. joining us is anne-claire legendre, spokeswoman for the french foreign ministry. welcome to the show.

the measures introduced by the eu, how quickly will these measures really bear down, have an impact on the russian economy? good morning. guest: good morning. our assessment is it is going to be very quick. you know that yesterday the european leaders met in brussels and adopted a massive package of sanctions. there's five pillars to these sanctions package. the first is financial sanctions, and it is meant really for limiting russian access to the main financial markets, and also to target 70 persons of russian banks and the russian banking system. we believe this will make it very difficult for russia to borrow on the financial markets

and will create inflation in russia very fast. dani: anne-claire, much has been made of this idea -- i just want to jump in because much has been made of this idea of fortress russia, especially with those financial sanctions that have been announced that they are able to insulate themselves because of the surplus. one of our bloomberg opinion columnists says to go for the commodities markets. he points out the west is financing shows war by buying hundreds of millions of dollars of russian resources a day. he says either stop buying them or find a way to stop payments. is this the next step for russia should what is currently in place not cause inflation? guest: the second tier is dealing with energy, so we really want to target the refinery sector in russia.

you know this provided revenue for russia in 2019, so we think this will be very efficient. we know we need to work on that. it was mentioned by the eu president yesterday. we have been working in the last few weeks on diversifying our supplies, and we believe strongly that we are able to pay with all the work done the last few weeks to supply europe with gas during winter, even if vladimir putin decides to cut also apply to europe. manus: is france prepared to back cutting russia off from swift? guest: the discussion is not finished. this is a second wave of

sanctions. we already adopted a first wave of sanctions a day ago, following the so-called and self-proclaimed republic. we will have a meeting this afternoon in order to adopt technically these sanctions. and i think this is something we both continue to discuss. dani: to that point, anne-claire , could you walk us through the effectiveness or the benefit of having an incremental approach to sanctions rather than unleashing all the firepower at your disposal in one go? guest: i think we are unleashing all the firepower we plan to. it has been a really long consultation with our american -- dani: to be fair -- i just want to jump in.

as far as pulling back on commodities, that is firepower at your disposal that is being held to the side. why isn't that being included yet? why do this incremental approach? guest: it is not an incremental approach. it is a very massive approach we are taking at the moment. it is unprecedented and sanctions adopted by the eu, and you have seen the large panorama of the sanctions striking financial markets of russia, striking the energy markets, striking transportation as well with export controls, limiting very strictly the access to russia --the access of russia to high-technology, and it is stricking the elite and all the issues that the russian elites will face in the future in limiting their access to europe. so it is very broad and very

massive. it is unprecedented in europe. manus: i think we have to see how the sanctions come to bear because i think our last guest says europe should pretty much be ashamed of how it has walked away from ukraine after the guarantees they were given in 1994. one last question on the situation. president macron brokered a negotiation that was to take place between putin and biden, then putin invaded. do you think the french president is much wounded on the international stage from a reputation point of view? guest: i don't think so. i think president macron responded very clearly to that yesterday. when you face such a concentration of troops in europe, you have to make all the

efforts possible to bring about a reduction of tensions, de-escalation, and that has been the force led by emmanuel macron, but also in a clear consultation and unity with all of our european partners and transatlantic allies. this is something we will continue to do in order to find a way out. what president macron said yesterday, that first we need to respond to this deliberate choice that vladimir putin has made of choosing more in europe and choosing war in violation of its commitments, in violation of international law, in violation of the minsk agreements. dani: we really appreciate you joining us and your time. anne-claire legendre, spokeswoman for the french foreign ministry.

this is bloomberg. ♪

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anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe." i am anna edwards. mark cudmore joins us to take us through the market action. here are your top headlines. >> i don't see anyone. who is ready to give ukraine guarantees about nato membership? everyone is afraid.