financial sector. it would also restrict key technologies. the price of wheat jumped to the highest level in more than 13 years, adding to those inflation concerns. rachel's attack on ukraine -- russia's attack on ukraine could put a strain on supplies. reports that president biden has decided on a nominee for the supreme court. no word on when the selection will be announced. the president has already said he would select a black woman to fulfill a promise he made during the 2020 campaign. a slight loosening uncovered restrictions in new york city. starting monday, students in city public schools will no longer have to wear masks out ores on school grounds. tasks will still be required inside for students, staff, and visitors. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

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♪ >> what we can do is, working with our polish allies, establish a line of communication that can send white convoys, nonmilitary convoys carrying all of the stuff ukraine needs, and then

the ukrainians would distribute it. i think we don't want to get to a situation where our actions, we end up with russians and americans fighting each other. jonathan: that was ben hodges, the former u.s. commanding general in europe. good morning. we are positive on the s&p, on the nasdaq. stocks higher by 0.3% on the s&p, 0.4% on the nasdaq. yields up four basis points, reacting to this headline in the past 30 minutes. according to interfax, russia ready to send a delegation to minsk for ukraine talks. still waiting for reaction on the ukraine side to that headline of the last 30 minutes. tom:tom: the reaction in the markets is a stability for a bit. we want to bring you authorities like general hodges, on the ground for the u.s. army, putting troops into europe this morning or last night. we just showed you bill browder

with all of his family heritage of eastern europe, and now we do the same thing from a ukrainian village in chicago, lynn neu. if you are -- from ukrainian village in chicago, illinois. if you are in chicago, there's a huge amount of people watching this crisis. nell -- natalie jaresko joins us this morning from puerto rico, the former finance minister of ukraine. thank you for joining us. you are one of the lead members of ukraine, no doubt about that. what have you learned in your phone calls to kyiv and ukraine in the recent hours? natalie: it has been a horrible night and morning in kyiv. the bombing has taken everyone by surprise with its intensity. most people are in bunkers, in

bomb shelters, spent the night in those bomb shelters. right now, being advised to stay there. as you probably know, i think it is fair to share with you that there is an incredible disappointment with the strength and the urgency of the western response to what is in essence an unprovoked genocide of the ukrainian people. tom: what does the ukrainian community of america need from president biden? natalie: this is what the ukrainian immunity and ukraine needs -- the ukrainian community in ukraine needs, much more urgent, much deeper come a much broader financial sanctions, sanctions against energy companies, sanctions to end the disinformation in the media world, and on top of that, much more massive support for the ukrainian military that is defending itself. no one is asking for u.s. boots on the ground, but yes, we need

more ammunition, more javelins, more stingers, and they need to be trucked in from our eastern flank and nato so the ukrainian military can do its job not only defending ukrainians, but frankly all of europe. because if it does not end in ukraine and it does not end with democracy and ukraine, everyone else will be involved later anyway. lisa: can you talk a little bit about the defense efforts in kyiv and the broader ukrainian region, given that there is conscription among all men age 18 to 60? how quickly is it assembling? natalie: it is important to note that people were lining up yesterday even before that to volunteer. ukrainians are extraordinarily committed to defending their peace and freedom. this is not the first time in 30 years, but this is certainly worse than anything we

experienced in 2014 or prior to that. i will tell you that men are not being allowed to leave. i have heard the stories and spoken to people who were trying to leave with their families. men are taken out of the buses and told to go serve. frankly, it is only fair. everyone needs to serve at this point. the only hope we have is that the ukrainian military continues what has been an extraordinarily successful defense thus far in terms of what is happening on the ground. tom: arguably in the western world, you are the definitive expert on small business in ukraine to belarus. please, your opinion about mr. putin if he takes ukraine and if we assume he has taken belarus. what is his threat to the baltic states? natalie: there is no question that president putin has proclaimed to the world very clearly that he believes the

collapse of the soviet union was a mistake. it is also very clear he has absolutely no problem attacking unprovoked, peaceful countries as he is doing now and ukraine. obviously the baltics should be very concerned that they are next. tom: one more question, if i may, in an arduous morning for you. we have sanctions. i don't mean to be trite, but from where you sit and your experience, do sanctions work? natalie: sanctions that are weak and/or are doled out to slowly will not work -- out too slowly will not work. this is not about seeing what happens in a month or two to the russian economy. what we need our sanctions that create such a dire response that it causes the elites in russia to think twice. if it does not cause president putin to do so, at least it causes the elite. therefore, all of the banking

system, swift. it has to be eliminating -- to be sanctioning allstate owned companies. -- sanctioning all state owned companies. people are dying. we do not have time for tranches. it needs to be more than money. it needs to be kicking out and ending our diplomat relationships with russia. there should not be a total matt -- a diplomat in russia if they will not allow ukraine to enjoy peace and democracy. so there need to be a variety of things, and needs to be massive, urgent, and meaningful. and it will have an effect. but doling it out over a period of weeks, absolutely not. jonathan: i remember first talking to you about eight years ago, and it is sad that we are having this conversation still eight years later. natalie jaresko, the former ukraine finance minister.

i have just seen this headline from the telegraph. the italian prime minister mario draghi successfully secured a carveout for italian luxury goods from the eu package of sanctions. there have got to be some real tough questions on that if that is the case. tom: we don't know if it is true. i will let "the telegraph" tell it. but this is precisely what ms. jaresko is talking about. and i believe browder alluded to that as well. jonathan: i have to stress, we will keep bringing the headlines and tell you the sources for those headlines. that is coming from "the telegraph" this morning. equities up 0.5% on the s&p, the nasdaq up 0.6%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: we are moments away from economic data in the united states of america. good morning, equity session highs just about up when 4% on the s&p. call it .5%, a knee-jerk reaction to info facts saying russia is ready to send a daily

-- a delegation to minsk for u.k. talks. the fight on going. let's get the reaction from the one and only mike mckee. >> the president is coming across as the information on durable goods orders as of 1.6% on a headline basis in january, and up .7% if you leave out cars and airplanes. in january, omicron did not slow business investment. capital goods defense air, up 9/10 -- up .9%. the forecast was 4.3%, so much -- was for .3%. what the fed is watching, personal income comes in flat. no income change after a 4/10 rise in december.

, half a percent up on a monthly basis, five .2 basis on a year-over-year basis, so inflation is still coming in hot. that fits into the narrative from governor waller last night who said he is still open to a 50-basis point move in march if the economy continues to run hot

. he specifically cited the pce and pi inflation reports as things he is watching. jonathan: session highs up 6/10 -- up .6% on the s&p, nasdaq up .8%. the bond market, yields climbing higher. your to yield shaping up as follows. up for basis points at 2.001%. tom: it is really quite correlated with a more constructive tone to say the least. one quick question to mike mckee, it is a simple, off of what we have seen here. can we begin to frame out what jim bullard talked about of a re-percent to 4% gdp? the more gloomy statistics that they drift away with these numbers? mike: they don't. well it stays on a table -- the table as a possibility because we do not know what is going on with ukraine and how it will play out. for the fourth quarter, we are going in with straight -- first quarter we are going in with strength. the idea we will see a drop in

gdp and growth going forward does not seem to be worn out by the data at this point. jonathan: thank you as always, breaking down economic data. a few more big prince to come, cpi in america on march 10. before that, a payrolls report before march 16 and the fed decision. turning is now the chief u.s. economist. any reason to believe the latest developments, geopolitically, with war back in europe, closed down the pace of rate hikes the federal reserve? >> as you have indicated before, it depends a lot on how the data unfolds. we are clearly going to have it in march whether or not we have the situation in ukraine continuing, whether we have energy prices remaining elevated or not. the question is the pace of right hikes and number of rate hikes we will anticipate over the year. i happen to be in the camp that even though i believe first

quarter gdp is in the 4% level, gdp will slow rapidly as the year progresses. i think that will change the narrative on monetary policy discussion as we get closer and closer to june. into the march fomc meeting, there is nothing that will change the narrative. we expect them to show more rate hikes in 2022. 50 basis points will be discussed but not executed on. there is a lot more uncertainty and volatility at the front end of the curve in this environment, and the risk is the curve will flatten further from here. lisa: from a pure economic level, what are some of the prices you are looking at, the price points for oil that could have ap big shock on the economy? -- a pretty big shock on the economy? steven: sustained at $100 a barrel is important. then that filters through to the entire chain of refined products and then in terms of the natural gas, demand, substitute, and

that drives up natural gas prices as well. $100 a barrel is the level we are looking at as a sustained environment will lead to a scenario where our more conservative growth numbers on the more optimistic side -- are on the more optimistic side. the street lowered their knowers -- their number is to be consistent with what was put out in q4. it was weakened in the first quarter of the year and the economy remaining above trend over the balance of the year. we have a steady progression of 2% to 2.25% by the end of the year. i think numbers today validate -- validate our call than a street call. lisa: how confident are you -- it is not just oil, aluminum, food, wheat, wheat prices surging two the high since

2008. steven: you have to balance the inflation versus the damaging impact of purchasing power. that has been the key. the wage price spiral, the stagflation environment of the 1970's were created in a macro -- macro economic structure that we have today. for me, near-term inflation consequences is less important to the damage being done. household persisting -- purchasing power and balance sheets. considering the equity market is so disrupted by this, when ceos are paid on shareholder value, this reinforces a line that companies are going to remain as resistant as they can, validating wages, matching prices. therefore, purchasing power gets squeezed not only from the top line, also from the inflation component as well. that is what really weeks into

the economy. tom: there's a combination of real gdp plus inflation, does it matter? does the top line gdp nominal statistic matter or are we in a real-world? steven: the top line number does matter. i will not discount that. considering we threw $5.4 trillion at the economy, you will have a major one-time increase in prices. what everyone is forgetting is we are not sure whether this is more than a one-time increase in prices and we are behaving as if it is a permanent acceleration in prices, and from everything we can gauge today, that will not be the condition we are dealing with. so there is no direct link between crisis and wages. ceos update on shareholder value they warrant in the 1970's. demographics are different. the currency is different. the dollar was dropping rapidly back then. the dollar is firming in this

market. there are many contrasts that say this may well be a climb in prices which is why the fed does start lift off. they will be more nibble as chairman powell indicated at his last fomc postmeeting press conference because the situation is fluid and the narrative became [indiscernible] tom: with all your experience, we are into friday, everyone including you will publish and wander out monday morning to a whole new world after all. are we done with a parlor game of guessing five to seven, even rates, increases -- even eight, rate increases? well that disappear into march? steven: i do not think it disappears into march but after march. liftoff is march and that is an important development. we know the docs will be more, we know there will be a discussion at 50 basis points. people that want to get involved in the parlor game will have ammunition, and as jonathan

mentioned earlier, cp numbers -- cpi numbers coming out, payroll numbers coming out, we continue this through the march fomc meeting. it is between the march and june meeting where the narrative will change. jonathan: always good to catch up with you, steven ricchiuto of mizuho. tom: and of course futures 500, they get nicely back to what i call midday february 2023. it has been a nice two day recovery. jonathan: we are working off of the back of the headline, aren't we? the headlines coming out an hour ago, russia said they are ready to start talks. it is far more nuanced than the headline. tom: i think it is way more nuanced and the language is in the twittersphere with what is it really mean, what does zelinski really say in that? we do not want to get into that speculation game but i would say to everybody tuning in, you don't want to day trade off of this. this is extremely fluid. it could frankly cut either way. jonathan: the conversation

around ongoing sanctions, on seemingly too? lisa: this conversation about harsh to get. you ask if we are done with the tranches. it seems like there is firepower the european union as well as the united states is trying to hold back. how far are they willing to go? so far there has been zero appetite to take a hit to the economy if it is on luxury goods in italy or oil prices in the u.s. jonathan: so far, the president of the united states has been respectful of its allies without trying to embarrass them too much. there was a hint in the news conference in the briefing that you picked up on, where you talk -- where they talked about swift and said it is not something europeans want at the moment. it is a small suggestion but it is there. that is where you can see things unraveling, whether the u.s. wants to go harder or not. tom: you get the same tone from prime minister johnson or is he adversarial? jonathan: i think it is perhaps

easier to boris -- for boris johnson to sound more aggressive on this knowing europeans are unlikely to come on board with that. it is fitting for him to sound stronger. i think it was perfect. you have to remember football's bloomberg news style. mohammed will be joining us shortly of queens college cambridge, 20 minutes away. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with first word, while russian forces are closing in on ukraine, moscow is proposing negotiations. according to the russian news agency, they are ready to send this for talks with ukraine. president zelensky statement, he is ready to discuss his country. status. -- his country's status.

that comes in addition to a broader package of sanctions that you approved today and does not affect the ability of putin or lavrov to travel. consumer confidence in the u.k. fell the most in almost two years. that is when coronavirus locked on restrictions were first announced. this is closely followed by the the houses also worry about rising inflation and taxes. morgan stanley disclosed u.s. regulators and prosecutors are investigating aspects of its block trading business. a filing admitted the bank itself is under scrutiny, authorities digging into how bankers and money managers carry out stock transactions big enough to move prices. shares on me are lower today. analysts question its profitability, outlook, and pricing strategy. the maker forecasted sales that missed the global expectation. global news, 24 hours a day, on

air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there is an incredible -- with the strength and urgency of the western response. what we need from president biden and all of the western democracies is much more urgent, much deeper, much broader financial sanctions, sanctions against energy companies, sanctions to end the disinformation in the media world, and on top of that, much more massive support for the ukrainian military. tom: the former ukraine minister

of finance in a piercing interview with us moments ago from puerto rico. we think so much the former finance minister for her sharp and direct talk. lisa abramowicz and tom keene with us. we have breaking news here and i think it is so appropriate to go to lisa with your work at the university of chicago where you know clerkships really matter and the president is selected a clerk of justice stephen breyer to replace him. this is brown jackson, will be the supreme court nominee. your thoughts? lisa: now being reported by the associated press as well as cnn that biden is planning to name get tangie brown jackson to the supreme court, not getting distracted as he tries to replace the seat of justice breyer after his right leg nation -- his resignation. a lot of people are looking for quick action because of the liberal balance on the court -- liberal/conservative balance on the court. tom: we will make that announcement, our wonderful team in washington will cover it.

i urge you to look at bloomberg opinion in the coming days from noah feldman and others from their perspective on this change at the supreme court. on short notice, we are thrilled to bring back daniel tannebaum on financial crime and global head of sanctions at oliver wyman. thrilled he could be with us. i will ask you the same question i asked the former finance minister of ukraine. you have lived this in the trenches, sanctions work -- trenches, do sanctions work? daniel: i've had five years of that question, not on that show. tom: but the question changed in the last two days. daniel: the question changed. in this instant, sanctions will not save the fall of ukraine at this point. i think that is pretty clear. sanctions are now going to put russia on the trajectory they are on in the same category as cuba and iran directionally where these are being escalated. tom: when we see this action, and i don't want to get into the jargon, i am too tired to do it, swift in all of this in

financial transactions, we are mere mortals and there are ends around, you move the money another way. daniel: that's right. the talk of swift -- i talked to bloomberg's nick lott ends yesterday -- tom: nick said you are out of control. daniel: you banned swift and there are other ways to fund transactions. tom: give us an example. daniel: if you designate a bank, all medians of payment are off a table -- the table. you -- it does not really prevent financial transactions from occurring. as long as energy transactions are still permissible, the west needs to pay for those transactions somehow and more often than not they are using swift. lisa: in your sense, when president biden came out yesterday, the series of sanctions the u.s. implemented on the financial system of russia, yesterday, was more than removing them from the swift

system. did you buy that? daniel: i do. there has been a twitter-lovefest across the national security folks who worked in this space for a long time as well. the sanctions on these banks are more significant because they include asset freezes. any assets they hold in the west are frozen, any transactions occurring with them are essentially band going forward with the wind down period to settle up and close accounts. it is more significant than merely deswifting russia. there has not been a100 percent embargo on any country. you end up penalizing western businesses that may be transacting legally to even get paid for the goods they are trying to sell into the market. lisa: this is the unspoken reality right now. it is being spoken, which is how do you protect a business while continuing to implement pain on the russian administration? how do you look at that in terms of what the u.s. will have to

do, what europe will have to do based on the isolation of russia currently and based on the lack of deterrence we have seen so far. daniel: looking to the comments made before break, that is the balance u.s. and allies are looking at. you have inflation pressures already but look at energy prices, metal prices, all of them have a variable in this. when the u.s. government sanctioned a specific oligarch, it was a d stable asian of the global aluminum sector. this administration is looking to make sure those type of -- the stablization of the global aluminum sector. this administration is looking to make sure those type of -- tom: what changes his behavior and the sort term? -- short-term? daniel hodges said u.s. troops showing force is his only solution. daniel: i think we have a new front certainly between the west

and russia. that is what we are seeing over these last few days. i am the first -- for this thing from a military strategist but what we are seeing and hearing the president of russia wants talks, it is unclear where this endgame ends. i think the nato front is something the president will not challenge further. it does seem to me ukraine might be lost in collateral damage of this with the west not bringing troops to bear. as we see, sanctions will take time to clamp on the russian economy. tom: thank you so much for joining us a number of times this week. daniel tannebaum, truly expert on sanctions, the good and bad of them, the effective -- effectiveness. lisa, i would love to move away from ukraine and the effect on the markets, the vix under 30 is constructive. we are looking at the new slow in the late afternoon of give -- of kyiv. i want to talk about something so odd, a public defender

nominated to the supreme court. extraordinary on many levels. a highly qualified judge, she would be the first black woman on the supreme court, now officially nominated by president biden. her incredible tenure at harvard law school and being the editor of the law review. all of these credentials really putting her at the forefront as he tries, as president biden tries to solidify the balance of it in court that has been dominated by conservative voices. tom:tom: what would richard pozen or say about age 51 years old? lisa: this has been the trend on the supreme court, tried to get justice in at a younger age to give them a longer tenure. we saw the under president trump and are seeing that again with president biden trying to pick a younger individual to come in and chart a path. tom: many people saying chicago in a more ancient age should have been selected for the

supreme court, a story for another day. lisa help me, the last couple days have been absolutely extraordinary. lisa: it is difficult to talk about the world on normal ways and markets in normal ways when there is more going on in europe , when people are trained to gauge the fallout from personal levels. you see people and images of people hiding out in bunkers. right now, we are getting headlines from the kremlin in terms of the call as well as lavrov being reported to visit geneva. tom: we will be with you through the weekend on this. please stay with us. futures up 18, dow futures up 144. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: fast moving story. futures up .1% -- futures up .5%. the countdown to the open starts now. >> everything you need to get started for the set of open trading, this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. [bellringing] jonathan: from new york city,

good morning. we begin with the big issue, russian forces closing in on ukraine's capitol. president biden pledging to inflict severe cost the president actions. pres. biden: we cut off largest banks, which holds over one third of russia's banking assets. we cut it off from the u.s. financial system. today, we are also blocking for more major banks. -- four more major banks. that means every asset in america will be frozen. jonathan: president zelensky urging his country to remain strong, stressing a need for dialogue, saying "russia will