>> things can turn fast and when they turn fast -- >> i think you're trying to hedge broader market risk. >> one wants to have portfolios that are liquid, a resilient and agile in this environment. >> the narrative can change quickly on this. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: a lot changed this weekend. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. equities down 1.4% on the s&p. tom: we had a 33 level on the vix moments ago. the bloomberg shows a lot of data and the correlations across of it. i would suggest all in all it's better managed than this not --

the last night. >> talks between russia and ukraine on the border with belarus. that's where it's taking place right now. >> you've got to translate this, but this is germane to the debate on international relations. according to the reporting of david, abramowitz said to be common -- contacted by ukraine to help broker peace. are we surprised? jonathan: i don't know, i have no idea. there is one man who matters at the moment and it's his decision alone that brought us here, vladimir putin. lisa: who was going to convince them to do something else. there've been a number of reporting talking about how increasingly isolated he is. also from china's perspective, china hasn't come out with a hard line on what they want to do with russia and they provide

a lot of foreign currency reserves. it's a big interconnection and there is pushback internally in china. jonathan: let's talk about dollar ruble. the central bank's response to it. to move rates to 20% from 9.5 percent, that's amongst the most. lisa: it recognizes how much the moves are the efforts to isolate russia financially from the world system. this is unprecedented in its scope and potential scale is some additional sanctions are considered. jonathan: good morning, a futures down by 1.3% by the s&p. on the nasdaq we are down by 1.2. european banks down. 10 year yield to lower treasuries. treasury yields down by four basis points. crude at $96 a barrel. brent through 100. lisa: a lot of people are wondering why it is an even higher given the fact our

additional sanctions about how can oil majors avoid -- how can banks continue to transfer money to russian gas majors in order to get this supplied. germany's olaf scholz will be the european roundtable along with emmanuel macron and ursula vander lie talking about how to proceed with gas and other issues. i'm curious to see what olaf scholz says about this pivot committee 100 billion euros, 2% of germany's gross domestic -- gross domestic product 2024. the agreement to supply kyiv with military supplies, a big shift away from a neutral stance post-world war ii. we are looking at the atlanta fed president taking part at 11:30, a discussion hosted about the economy. how does the fed respond to a

stagflation event where you have inflation rising and growth coming down. today hike more or less. the more common fed we were previously expecting. president biden is hosting a call for the allied nations of how to deal with this really front and focused with the gas prices, oil prices as they do surge the highest going back to 20 and gasoline in the united states rising to the highest since 2014 also at a time when this will repeat direct -- compete directly on consumers ability. >> allowed to watch this week. chairman powell speaks. dollar ruble 101. tom: i went back and it looked at the four terms of -- the four terms of president putin and he has had a devaluation. out of 101, 103 and that's a 70%

plus prudent evaluation over a good 20 years. jonathan: thinking about how much worse it could be. able to sell them in the russian market. lisa: why would you load the exchange in russia -- slow the exchange in russia if you weren't worried about a tanking evaluation. jonathan: the first move, that's the nature of reaction. it'll take days and weeks to figure out. lisa: we asked what are you doing right now and he said he prepared already but do you sell this? what your conviction rate at a time when things are moving faster than we could've imagined? jonathan: can we just start with we fast a lot of guests over the last week or so. what's changed? >> sorry had to do this on the phone.

nothing and you're probably knocking alike that i'm saying nothing. we don't want to be reactive. the market is dealing with things. it thinks it knows it will be over kind of quickly and that's what history shows and we have a report on this last week following geopolitical events. it tends to gravitate around things we don't know. we don't know the effects of growth, of inflation. we think we may know and that's why everyone is pointing toward six or seven interest rate increases. i am not as clear on that. at the end of the day, but this is a reactive momentum driven market, has been for the last couple of years and that's why it's the do nothing right now. you don't want to make a binary decision, you want to have the positions you're in longer-term but you want to have a process and discipline with respect to looking at companies that have

consistent fundamentals, strong balance sheets and great earnings and that's the u.s. stock market. tom: what's so important here within your optimism is we need to know how you feel about big tech, but apple and amazon. they describe what you just described. they are getting beat up like the minnesota vikings. >> they are in the vikings have a lot of work to do. big tech i think should be part of most people's portfolios especially if they are equity investors in the stocks you mentioned in big tech are those consumer stable big tech names being thrown out with the bathwater. you can paint technology with one broad brush. you have to be a stock picker and i believe the market has been discriminating in the high multiple tech areas. i wouldn't consider these names high multiples.

i would consider them consumer stable to either growth or value portfolio. so we want you to continue to nibble on these names that the market is discriminatory towards these names as they treat tech with the same thing. we want you to be a balanced investor small, mid and large in terms of fundamentals and don't be reactive in terms of binary decisions. >> there have been pretty significant changes with respect to sanctions and exposures of companies whether it's banks or oil companies. like bp forced to sell. how much do you game out the perspective or something similar to happen at shell and exxon and other meta-energy majors. >> i would say energy is 3% of the market and its had a heck of a run and from our lens we want

you to be more neutral energy. remember, two years ago energy companies were paying you to take this and we kind of forgot that already. we know the supply issue has been ed morse -- we haven't seen that in decades. we believe that will rollup. oil prices will be lower. oil companies have about 12 months now taking advantage and they will have a poor time adding capital. getting them to add capital and investment. they have to hurry to get things going. this is why you want to own money center banks. if rates do end up going lower here the bank of america is, of the morgan stanley's are exquisitely positioned because of their multidivisional assets.

i do think this is why you have to focus on less about the sector and more about specific names with respect to some of this international oil, you don't have the exposure with what bpm shall have. jonathan: great work as always, great to hear from you. some of these names, out of italy, unicredit down by 12%. big banks with a big presence in russia. tom: the austrian bank, a deutsche bank like book. just to show the compare and contrast, deutsche bank off the function on the bloomberg with the latest plunge.

4.2 times greater book value. crazy is the designation. jonathan: we started this year for people hoping the ecb would hike interest rates. that's now dead and buried. jonathan: we really haven't -- tom: i don't understand how central bankers get political cover by raising rates. that's original to me. jonathan: chairman powell speaking later this week. futures down 1.3% on the s&p, from new york city for audience worldwide on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up today with news from around the world. ukraine is holding talks with russia today aimed at ending the

fighting. president zelensky questioned whether much will come from the meeting but said he felt bound to make an attempt if it meant a chance at peace. russia's plan face rapidly rising costs. even though russia retains overwhelming advantages. there's about a 56% likelihood of default on cove -- on debt. 100,000 a year to ensure $10 million of russian bonds. they prompted moscow to take emergency measures and shield financial sector. one of the penalties prevent central banks from using this to fund sanctions by the european union has agreed to send military aid to ukraine for lethal weapons. the package may include supplying fighter jets to the ukrainian air force. the price of oil held more

sanctions were imposed on russia. jumping more than 7% before falling back slightly to $103 a barrel. any disruptions could invest the tightness in the market. -- as agreed to by first horizon in a deal valued at $13.4 billion. it's a premium to first horizon on friday. they will use extra capital on its balance sheet. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> energy sanctions are certainly on the table.

we want to do that and make sure we are minimizing the impact on the global marketplace. president biden's view is we need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, on oil in general and look at other ways of having energy. jonathan: from new york with futures down a little more than 1%, down by 1.1%. into the bond market a bit where you expect them. yields lower by let's five basis points. recruited 9594, up by 7.3%. looking at a move of about 20% and a move for central banks to take interest rates to 20% from 9.5. tom: we also quote euro ruble as well. on dollar ruble it's at 103 and with overnight sunday obscure bank tweets said it was at 170.

jonathan: if you're a holder of foreign assets, foreign holder of russian assets, it's dollar ruble at 98 a decent read of what's taken place. tom: we have so much to talk about i will put them here with the angle if you will, and romeo -- maria planting it in front of the water fountain in geneva which is a beautiful shot. i'm going to go to your expertise here on the gentlemen of the chelsea football club. what i'm really interested is the oligarch and his comp -- he grew up in western ukraine, and these three guys, alpha group,

they are going after their guy. >> they are doing it in a diplomatic way. but they are stepping up. the response from oligarchs as well as russian celebrities has not gone unnoticed in the press. friedman writing a letter to individuals. talking about how he actually ukrainian and russian. then you have a leg on his telegram channel. and he's talking about and all of this and that it's necessary to change the economic policy. then you have roman of brahma which being called by the ukrainians to be -- the oligarchs are starting to step up invoice their opinion about this war. >> how does this fit in with your day in geneva.

if the debtor even some reports looking at a very lonely putin. how does this go into the complexity of this monday. jonathan: got no audio there. tom: we've got a loss of audio there. let me go back to anne-marie. i think you heard that same question as well. it falls into the complexity. does mr. putin call up the gentleman from the chelsea football club, what can we do? >> we should note they are taking huge gambles by speaking up now. he has an incredibly small inner circle, likely just individuals from the security apparatus. you saw that meeting he held.

a number of them were there -- a number of individuals and pollutants that i had no choice, i had to do this because he knew was coming. now it will be crippling economic sanctions and those individuals being cut off from western financing, we have to see where this plays out but it is i would say the first time having watched how the business community interacts there, never publicly you would hear those statements you could get a sense of where people stand in terms of how they feel about the president, but never publicly you're seeing this kind of pressure from the business elite. >> we hear the audio has been restored. when you start to talk about some of the sanctions it will

have not only harsh effects on the oligarchs in russia but also on themselves. >> to answer that question i think we seen incredible unity from the european union but to go back to the point tom made here in europe. if you want to get on a private plane to go and have a nice day that's not can i happen. so this is going to have a real impact on their everyday lifestyle but you have to be very careful about not overhyping the oligarchs because the only reason why they are rich is they got close to vladimir putin. so they always say i would not play up the oligarchs facing up because they know what they owe him and say -- it takes a lot of

courage to do this. we've seen this play out before. there would need to be a level of civil unrest we haven't seen for about 20 years and we believe this could change for the insight. the focus is on the military and whether they believe it warrants sticking with it. >> maria, thank you for sticking with us. getting some comments at the ecb the governor of the bank of greece. stagflation in the short term. tom: i have trouble with the word stagflation. i get the idea, but the condition here is so much more than the way i perceive summers talking about stagflation. a look at it as a more economic dynamics. we are dealing with war and i don't know if that's a growth collapse or a general slowdown.

>> we will have higher inflation. >> at what point did stagflation turn into recessionary fears and she said were quite a way away from that. because of what they've been able to absorb. if they get to for five dollars a barrel how much is that equation change. how does that shift. jonathan: it goes back to the jeff currie note they upgraded the forecast short-term for brent. basically they said peace negotiations, the only way to get this down is to get it up. demand destruction. >> if it hasn't caused demand destruction at this point how much further does has to go -- does it have to go to get that effect. >> we are down by 9/10 of 1% on the s&p.

just one four percentage points. the talks were the focus is between u.k. -- ukraine and russia. any headlines we will get to you, from new york this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

jonathan: here's the price action. we recover. on the nasdaq down by 9/10 of 1%. allow me to bring these to you. with russia central bank to allow some energy related transactions with russia. u.s. sanctioning russia's ministry of finance. these sanctions continue and the actions are effective. they also sanctioned a close ally of putin. -- russia's directive fund, central bank. >> again they are going to

dovetail through the evening in europe. what we saw in the embassy in belarus. jonathan: they're going to remove from the embassy in belarus. >> they will remove staff from minsk and that is a big deal. i'm looking here at the ruble, it's pretty much off of where it's been with a 19 big figure move. these kind of headlines continue to add weight. jonathan: those transactions with the central bank to allow some energy related transactions with russia. a minimal energy carveout, i just wonder how it's going to work. how does it work in practice? lisa: if you're banning transactions with specific banks and they do them with specific oil companies how do they transfer funds unrelated to oil?

it's a complicated mix when it finds moscow is more isolated. jonathan: futures down. we stay on top of those headlines. >> let's talk about the purchasing power and what you will see and how the readthrough is as we see this decrease. here are some spots that show that. mcdonald's down 1.4%. 9% of their revenue comes from russia and ukraine combined. coca-cola down a half percent in the market. 20% of their volume comes from russia and ukraine. the russian search engine list it the united states down a whopping 21%. just a few sessions ago this was trading at double the price. those are also moving quite a bit in the premarket. you're seeing quite a lot into defense names as well as those

energy names following brent and wti. the ones that have far more exposure are getting the bid. as they look to offload that. that's dropping. >> greatly appreciated. jane foley joins us with all of their commercial relationships across europe. from a strategy standpoint, what is the state of liquidity with the european financial system. >> liquidity, there's none and the people have very little. perhaps the spotlight is beginning to shine, we are not

used to having crisis at that effect. we are seeing things a little bit stressed. >> we've been how ruble will open. is ruble still open for trading as you said. >> you've got to bear in mind because of the sanctions, they aren't able to trade with russian counterparts. you get a crushing of liquidity. what -- we've seen an enormous spread compared with where we would normally see the russian ruble. very few people are willing to trade that. and that's probably going to be

like that for some time. lisa: the backdrop changed materially. , the weaponization of the hegemony saying they are using the dollars predominance to push russia out of the system. and it would have longer implications. we are not seeing that. is there validity to this argument? >> it's been going on for at least eight or so years. it's trying to protect itself against from sections, and also trying to have the u.s. dollar denominated. in the global payments system.

that's why sanctions have been used. and certainly it is if you'd like to try and order another country to really back down what they want to do, it's been used very powerfully and really was a blessing with the u.s. and western allies. lisa: there's a concern there will be huge liquidity issues with dollar financing and there's been no speculation including with the like of credit suisse that they will have to extend other intervention. do you see other signs that will need to be required? >> i think the fact a central bank is willing to do it might be enough because often what creates these liquidity shortages is sheer panic and people trying to get their hands on liquidity just in case, not that they need it now or in a

few days time. the fed may promise that it's there, that liquidity lines are possible could be enough so this is really about stopping market panic. we have to remember we did see that shut down in the black sea. we don't have a huge amount of disruption to food or energy and this is for the panic could come forward. some of the sanctions that have been announced with respect haven't been universal. they would like to know they can get their hands on some russian supplies that's necessary for germany which will be using that russian energy. it's really important how it's managed to stop that panic that may require some of those extra

liquidity lines. jonathan: to build that out just a little bit more. when the market reopens, what pressure would you expect on this currency? >> a huge amount of pressure. they nascent -- the one you mentioned, selling its russian state. the biggest wealth fund in the world and it wants to sell its russian assets. bonds as well as a lot of stocks. even if it's delayed today or another few days. at some point that selling will come and we can expect a lot. >> wonderful work out of london. some of these headlines might be expected. allow me to read them for you. u.s. banks bans transactions

with the russian central bank. sanctions to close allies of vladimir putin, of the russian ministry of finance, the wealth fund, a direct investment fund. just on top of the effort we've seen over the weekend. lisa: over the weekend i was struck by the notes saying we've been focused on the swift financial system and removing them from that but really removing transactions is possibly more consequential for the nation and possibly could have graber -- greater ramifications. >> there was a briefing this morning with u.s. officials putting out a couple of those quotes. no country's sanctions proof when we act together. fortress russia will be shown to be a myth. the russian economy to go backwards as long as putin decides to go forward. tom: you and alisa really

emphasized this, this is not just official sanctions, but the individual action of capitalism against this war. here is christine lagarde's law firm from decades ago with baker mckenzie and this is catherine out of london. baker mckenzie to cut ties with russian clients. that in itself is a sanction from a major global law office. >> what's going to be interesting is to see how much the spreads beyond and into energy as well. when you disrupt capital flows can you make sure you carve out one particular part, one specific part of an economy. i would suggest that's difficult to do. lisa: especially if a lot of companies are self sanctioning, avoiding getting in the crosshairs of any of these issues. even the likes of china.

there were reports china state bank started -- stop providing certain financing for purchases because they didn't want to get caught in the crosshairs of the sanctions. jonathan: we still have the norwegian wealth fund, we have bp move, they didn't have to, they faced pressure from british politicians. tom: i'm going to have great respect for the black market. that unofficial market was 150, right now 104. >> big conversation coming up. the master of the crude market, looking forward to that later. crude at 4.4 -- this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up today with

news around the world with the first word. officials from ukraine and russia are meeting on the fifth day of the russian invasion. the ukrainian president to skeptical talks will lead to results but says he is willing to try if that -- for the transfer piece. new penalties target russian central bank. some russian banks have been barred from the swift messaging system. russian markets were paralyzed. the russian currency lost a third of its value in offshore markets at one point. it hit an all-time low of 109 in moscow. and introduced some currency controls. leasing firms may have to recalled jetliners with billions of dollars per threatened the carrier's ability to function and operate rented planes.

they are leased mostly from companies based abroad. pp selling its shares in a russian firm. they've been in russia for three decades. just weeks ago they were staunchly defending their presence there. td bank has agreed to purchase the first horizon in a -- with the price representing a premium. td will use excess capital on its balance sheet for the transaction. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> european union steps up once

more and support for ukraine and the sanctions against the aggressor that is putin's russia. important russian banks will be excluded from the swift system. we will also ban the transactions of russia's central bank and freeze its assets. jonathan: the u.s. and eu moving in lockstep -- in lockstep at the moment. futures down 9/10 of 1% on the s&p, a similar move on the nasdaq 100 as well. the bond market yields down for five basis points. up 4.4%. a big move on dollar ruble. tom: a big figure move at 101, 102 right now. would you agree with me markets range bound with all of the new slower speed? jonathan: a massive gap at the tom: through the weekend we were working with our team in london

and new york to bring you the best pieces we could find in economics, finance and investment and more in our combined international relations. the word nuclear is come forward. his definitive in researching nuclear. he is iconic to his time decades ago. we are honored he joins us this morning. before we went to air we moved away from the continent of europe to what is hollywood movies except is not. that is our submarines and their submarines. are their submarines given mr. boudin's rhetoric, a threat? >> they are if they are used. we hope it doesn't come to that level. we have indications this morning the defense minister in russia

has recorded activities. we haven't seen or confirmed what it is. in the northern fleet in the pacific fleet, with a could be taking steps to increase the readiness. >> i should mention the kind of person who counts satellite photo images is that particular about counting the beans. what does dual capable mean and the fear of those in belarus and russia, what does this word dual capable mean? >> that the launcher of the weapon is capable of launching a weapon with conventional warheads as well as nuclear warheads. that can create some misunderstandings and overreactions. if the crisis continues on you don't know what they are launching but so far we have not

seen movements of nuclear custodial in the context of the ukrainian crisis. >> the prospect of a nuclear altercation is so nerve-racking that people don't want to talk about it. we haven't heard about it that much. a lot of participants raised this first off that this is their biggest concern. you still think it's unlikely it would come to that that it's mostly rhetoric. why do you think it won't escalate to the degree a lot of people are worried about? >> rattling the nuclear sword is part of the russian way of doing business. this is one step further i would say but it still far from an actual exchange. it's hard to see any real justification that such destruction will be justified by any of the things going on despite what's going on. lisa: this is the rationale why

a lot of people thought he wouldn't be that -- necessarily invade and now people are wondering if vladimir putin is in fact a rational actor and whether he's going to respond in a rational manner. is there something about those below possibly not responding to his command or any kind of upheaval. >> there's there's a question whether he's in a bubble and doesn't see the picture. it's at a level that's far beyond what's happening right now. that's why i'm sort of confident we won't get to that level. tom: decades of experience, explained to us the head of the russian military and the russian

military's relationship with mr. boudin, explained that to your advantage point. >> is a very small circle of people. they've been there for many years. it doesn't seem to be giving them frank advice. it's more like these people are carrying out his orders. that's kind of the most dangerous situations. you can get into this where things are getting more and more more and more happening -- happening more and more. >> stay close, we will catch up soon. the u.s. informed saudi arabia of the possible coordinated stockpile release according to sources over the journal. the u.s. informing saudi arabia of possible coordinated

stockpile release. lisa: in order to offset some of the increase in crude prices, opec-plus with an out blue -- which is in line with predictions, how to saudi arabia factor in if the u.s. saying if you don't provide more we will and we will benefit with it so get on board. >> we've been talking about that for much of the last month. we talked about it over and over again. i would suggest it won't do much. i would suggest this potential to do something now is limited. >> not that i'd editorialize. we were talking about durum wheat in chicago. what's so important to me is

opec-plus, where opec just removed everyone else is removing themselves from mr. boudin, why can't saudi arabia as well? >> they haven't hit their output target. who's got the capacity. brent crude comes off the highs. wti within 95 handle. -- with a 95 handle. tom: from a 33 level into a 31 handle, right now i would say in the uproar of the weekend it's a very contained range bound market. we don't have headlines out of these talks at the border. jonathan: not yet know -- not yet, no. that's the main event today. we know what the ukrainians

want. with the russians want. tom: what do we see tonight? terrible. jonathan: down 9/10 of 1%. crude 95, up 4%. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> one wants to have new assets be liquid and agile in this environment. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. on radio and television, headlines coming in across all the bloomberg world.