♪ >> general for russia now -- the contagion channels for russia now. >> this exacerbates supply chain woes. >> the fear is broad-based and becoming sticky. >> i think we are all trying to figure out what is going on now. >> this looks like it is going to rough for years. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: big moves in this market. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, live on" this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: in the last hour and a half, a move from the $109 level , the high for the morning $113.

jonathan: the russia talks may happen today. the objectives of those talks, something we have to revisit every single time we see those headlines. tom: we have to see, within the courage of what we are seeing from ukraine. i think we are flying blind here, blinder then we were three days ago. jonathan: payrolls on friday, adp later today, cpi print on march 10 could have an 8% handle. what on earth are they going to do this year? lisa: has they lost control over the inflationary pressures in the economy? if they have, what is the ramification for an economy that has been hinged on every fed chair powell word for the past couple of years? how do we dovetail into a new regime? jonathan: your nasdaq up by

0.7%. yields down hard in the u.s., harder in germany, much harder in the u.k. we reverse some of that move today. wti very close to $110, up by 6%. euro-dollar, a break of 1.11 to the downside. lisa: we had these cabals controlling or helping markets in a certain direction at there will, and now there's an issue of have the markets gotten away from those and end up dictating supply and demand? today, opec+ meets. exxon mobil investor day at 9:00 a.m., eia crude oil inventory report at 10:00 a.m. 6% overnight increase in wti,

the highest level in some cases going back to 2011 at one point overnight. how do we go to either faster production? do talk about that? do you come this as a temporary shock? the pandemic is moving to an endemic phase and people want to go out and actually spend and travel. not a clock a.m., you finance ministers holding an emergency meeting by videoconference. how much is it going to be dominated by how to deal with the ramifications of some of the sanction so far? it is not just oil, not just crude. natural gas in europe has gone vertical. it is shocking to see some of the moves. 60% overnight. prices more than double in just a couple of sessions. how do they deal with this at a time when it is not clear where they can get other gas prices, other than russia and ukraine? jay powell delivers his semiannual testimony before the house financial services committee. people have been pulling back expectations for rate hikes. you can see this in the rate

hike expectations for the year, which have gone from seven to fewer than five this year, over just a couple of trading sessions. as you look at all of this and get a sense of how he thinks fed policy actually engages with an inflation well beyond the scope of what the fed can address. jonathan: a big story just crossing the bloomberg. let's sit on this one for a second. the ford motor company will split its fast-growing electric vehicles operations from its legacy combustion engines business. tom: normal corporate news. jonathan: historic reorganization. i think the story of crude speaks to that effort as well. $110. tom: and also, and affordable electric car. but i hear as ford and gm go on this, we've got to do this, but we've got to make it accessible for the american public and maybe this gets the more focused. jonathan: ford up in the

premarket a little more than 4%. the president of the united states last night addressing the nation. pres. biden: he badly miscalculated. he thought he could roll into ukraine in the world would rollover. tonight i am announcing that we will join our allies imposing off american airspace to all russian flights. invading a foreign country has cost around the world. i am taking robust action to make sure the pain of our section is targeted at the russian economy. jonathan: team coverage starts with joe mathieu in new york and maria tadeo in brussels. the latest sanctions already starting to bite. is there more still to come? joe: it is a great question. it has a lot to do with what happens in congress. there has been some effort to codify or add to the sanctions the treasury department has been handling. after lots night address, better

part of an hour, almost an hour to the minute, the first 10 to 15 minutes the president talking about russia-ukraine. both sides of the room up and uproarious, standing ovation as he called vladimir putin a dictator and spoke to some of the sanctions already in place. that is giving us the thought there might be a renewed effort here. maybe to get back to the drawing board on the senate foreign relations committee. the problem is they could never agree on timing for sanctions. but now that an invasion has begun, that should not be an issue anymore. tom: you also have sanctions, but then you have to put sanctions in place and make them tough and make them work. is there any indication that is going to occur? joe: we can only take the administration at its word. it is fascinating to see this self sanctioning by corporate america. we are talking about apple, nike, exxon, some of which apparently have been in touch with the biden administration. they are helping to lead this on a corporate level, as will as a

government level. lisa: maria tadeo, how is europe facing off with natural gas prices that have been surging and dealing with the fact that there is a hardened feeling that they need to do something to stop putin? maria: we are going to find out today that is the reality. european finance ministers meeting here, they will have to come up with a plan. so far what we hear, you have to factor that a lot of this is for the domestic audience. you don't want people in panic trying to buy fuel. what they say is we can deal with this. this is the end of the winter. the worst is over. we can think about how we want to go from here. the reality is, we have seen it this winter. renewable energy, clean energy won't do the job. it is not advanced enough. the other thing i would point to is that there will be a very real debate today among finance ministers in terms of where do we. that takes us to the energy conversation. we have seen that that continues to be a big moneymaking for

russia. there will be a conversation about what do we do next if we see that russia is able to weather this, and we see pictures from ukraine where it is now people, houses, offices, nothing to do with military targets that continue to get shelled every day. lisa: there has been a lot of discussion here and elsewhere about how a lot of companies are self sanctioning, that there is a defective sanction in place on russian oil in many places of the world. does that give the u.s. and european allies more freedom to go ahead with sanctions in name as a result of the moves that have already gotten ahead of them in markets? maria: it depends. i'm just going to give you one company, total yesterday. it was a very muted reaction to what we are seeing in russia, and the french finance minister bruno le maire came out and said you guys should think twice about your investments, so there is still pressure from the belittle side onto the company. a lot of these companies don't

want to get involved, or say they don't want to do future business with russia because they have very little visibility in terms of where we go next. in terms of the contracts still happening, for many it does continue to be business as usual. jonathan: thank you. joe mathieu here in new york city, just got a headline from prime minister boris johnson in the u.k., speaking to parliament. there's more to be done on russia sanctions. there's a big feeling, a conclusion from any people, this is not over yet. tom: joe mathieu just addressed this as well. i thing this is absolutely critical. just mouthing sanctions does not work. there's a lot of evidence of that. i am going to be fascinated to see the follow-through. very clearly we will see that follow-through in price. i'm going to go back to chicago wheat. there's a week price in chicago -- a wheat price in chicago. jonathan: i've been following it, tom. tom: i follow wheat off of the london metals exchange. with the explosion yesterday and

today, it shows those linkages in. will dissensions work? -- willie sanctions work? -- will the sanctions work? jonathan: this list, i think it is important for everyone to hear how much we have already seen from corporate america isolating russia. apple product sales, nike online sales, dell product sales, ups shipments, releases from hollywood, disney, warner, gm shipments, boeing pilot training -- that is important for obvious reasons -- visa network access, mastercard access. this is building hour-by-hour. lisa: which make you wonder, how much freedom is this giving governments to make the move in name if markets and companies are doing it already and getting ahead of them and basically creating a pathway for them to do it without that much more disruption. jonathan: there is a huge a esg question here which i think we will explore more in the coming

weeks and months. you and i are on the same page about esg, some of the hypocrisy around that conversation. never ceases to amaze me. clearly there are many companies who believe they have a moral obligation to step back from doing business with russia even if the sanctions don't require them to do so. tom: i look at them as discrete discussions. there's going to be a big esg debate. i totally take the point. major shout out to bank of america, who has done leadership on that. but this is a war. we got to remember, this is a war and we are in an information vacuum right now. let's see where we are three days from now before we talk about oil and esg. jonathan: you got oil companies making multi-decade decisions. exxon, bp, shell leaving russia behind. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: sarah: -- ritika:

keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. president biden warned vladimir putin that the war would leave his country weaker and more isolated. in his state of the union address, the president tried to show u.s. solidarity with ukraine by inviting congress to stand in support for the country. democrats and republicans and ukraine's ambassador stood and cheered in a rare show of unity after a year of bitter division. the president spent less than 10 minutes discussing ukraine before turning to the economic hardship of the pandemic. he pledged that his top priority would be to confront rising prices, and in an unexpected move, the president urged people who have been working from home to return to their offices. meanwhile, russia says its forces have captured a port city on the black sea. the ukrainian government has not confirmed that, but said overnight that russians were moving towards the city. oil has extended its role in less rally. prices went over $100 a barrel in london and new york. investors will be watching opec+

for a response when the cartel and its allies meet today to discuss. the iran nuclear talks have narrowly avoided a collapse, but european and u.s. officials warned that time is running out. diplomats trying to sadly j landmark deal the remains start over key disagreements -- trying to save a landmark deal that remains start over -- remains stark over key disagreements. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm at a good debt. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- i'm ritika gupta . this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ pres. biden: inflation is robbing them of gain they thought otherwise they would be able to feel. i get it. that's why my top priority is getting prices under control. one way to fight inflation is to drive down wages and make americans poor. i think i have a better idea to fight inflation. lower your costs, not your wages. [applause] jonathan: the president of the united states in an address to the american public last night. good morning. futures bouncing back your appointed percent on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, up 0.9

percent. a big rebound in yields as well. i say big, but relative to the move we saw lower yesterday, it is nothing, is it? if you are just waking up, we had a bit of a rally in crude, i think it is fair to say. on brent, 1.1073 -- on brent, $110.73. on wti, $108. tom: the twos-tens spread down to 34. we have a touch of 33 basis points for a bit. the curve flattening is tangible. jonathan: i wonder when we hear from the fed two weeks away. tom: no question about it. you wonder at that will be after the chairman's comments. alberto gallo, what a joy to have alberto in the studio with us, a real symbol of the end of the pending it. a gentleman of europe whose

public service to the navy and a guy who knows its price up and heal down. jonathan: i didn't even know he was here in new york until i saw him at the commercial break. good to see you. let's start with the massive dislocation we have seen in this european credit market recently. the extended description you have seen the market and where you have been taking opportunities, where you have been taking some purchases in. alberto: this is a bear market. we want to be preserving capital and we want to be in companies that have governed -- government support or shareholder support. there are regions of the world where europe has supported companies during covid and will continue to do so during the next months. there are names in the travel sector, and the industrial sector, that go down, but then they have sovereign support. those are big opportunities that yield a lot more than inflation. think about also the banks.

so we are buying in these sectors. we were very cautious at the beginning of the year, and we are buying slowly. the weak spot continues to be emerging markets, and when people see the fed doing less, i think that is wrong. i think the fed will continue to tackle inflation. that will continue to hurt emerging markets, together with political and geopolitical risk. jonathan: i want to talk about where you are buying. do you do that throughout the whole of europe? is it biased towards a particular part of europe? alberto: we are doing it across. however, there are countries in the world that are more born rubble to high commodity prices and high energy, so southern europe is more vulnerable, but outside of the western european countries, you've got turkey, you've got egypt, there's a lot of countries that are more vulnerable. in emerging markets, you could say there's still a lot of countries that are going to be

affected by high energy prices and higher interest rates in the u.s. and a stronger dollar. so we are very cautious there, and we are using limited dry powder at this stage. expect a little bit more volatility later in the year. jonathan: you were saying the -- lisa: you were saying the fed is going to hike rates still as much as people thought. is it the same story for the ecb? alberto: the ecb is likely to step back to only one hike this year. clearly have a closer issue, but also inflation in europe is a lot more driven by energy, so half of the 5% inflation in europe comes from energy. in the u.s. it is around 1/3 of the 7.5% cpi year on year that comes from energy, at least so far. so european inflation can still be more transitory, but in the u.s., there's rent, there's services and wages, so it is kind of a different problem here. lisa: does that make you more

bullish on european corporate debt and european rates simply because you have that ecb benchmark at a time when the fed is going in the opposite direction? alberto: that is exactly right, the least bad place to hide is still europe. within that, in the credit market you can still find companies in sectors that have sovereign support. so you get a less hawkish ecb, support to french companies , so where you want to be cautious the most is still in e.m. because you have the component effective hike gas prices and a stronger dollar and higher fed rates. jonathan: you mentioned the federal reserve. using they still hike. most people assume that is the case. the ecb, is it even part of the conversation anymore as far as you are concerned? alberto: it is possible they do

one hike in 2022. it really depends on how long this lasts. european countries have around five months of gas reserves, so if the conflict in russia and ukraine is a matter of weeks, we could see positive growth and more fiscal spending. think about germany upping the defense spending. it will become a reflationary environment, which is positive, and the ecb will have to hike. if it lasts months instead of weeks, then we are really looking at much lower growth in europe. jonathan: then we got a big problem. guess right now up more than 30% in europe. it is great to see you. good to catch up. i hope next time under different circumstances to have a broader conversation about this market, hopefully with a better outlook for this economy. these headlines coming from boris johnson right now in the house of commons. the british prime ministers saying there's more to be done on russian sections. goes on to say putin's actions

in ukraine constitute war crimes . this is something the ukrainian president himself is trying to communicate as well, and now we are hearing that reverberate around europe. putin's actions in ukraine constitute war crimes. tom: i think americans are really removed from this phrase. there's a whole process to this. jonathan: do you take the president of russia to the hague? how far down the road is that conversation? tom: another headline as we look at sanctions, i think this is absolutely critical, the wonderful japanese airline a and h has to be to stockholm, milan, istanbul. you have to fly north andover russia to get there. you don't go straight east-west. they can't. jonathan: russia increasingly isolated. lisa: and basically saying they are sticking to their guns. at what point the rank-and-file

and the oligarchs start to say enough is enough? jonathan: coming up, emily rowland, co. chief investment strategist at john hancock. with equities up 0.6 percent and crude approaching $110 on wti, from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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♪ jonathan: yeah to date on the s&p, down almost 10% coming into wednesday. on the nasdaq, down 14%. here's a bounce, a small one. up 0.6%. the moves in the bond market, that is where the story has been. look at the bonn bucket right now. twos-tens in germany and the u.s., down 10 basis points almost on 10 year treasury yields area on the 10 year bund, down 20. we reverse some of that. up four the 10 year now in america, and germany up seven. i keep talking about the front end. do we build that back out when chairman powell speaks a little bit later?

that is where my focus will be. my focus right now in the commodity market. we talk so much about crude. we joke about -- we need to talk about soft commodities as well. we all know the stats for europe or get it depends on russian crude. about 1/4 of its crude comes from russia. for the global economy, 1/4 of the week comes from russia -- the wheat comes from russia and ukraine. look at that move come up 7%. highs we have not seen in over a decade. tom: to move a tangible like wheat, you need oil, so they are inextricably linked to each other. jonathan: when you start to think about the consequences of this, the economics, the politics, the instability of those wrapped together, it can get messy quickly. lisa: and how are they going to get those supplies if the euro is depreciating? how much more is it going to cost them elsewhere? jonathan: deutsche bank was fascinating. the inverse correlation between crude higher, you are weaker,

the vicious cycle of higher inflation, weaker growth. what does the ecb do with that in the mix? lisa: especially because weaker euro means more inflation. they want to import things from places that are not denominated in euros. jonathan: deutsche bank saying it is inflicting damage on the euro zone economy right now and the ecb needs to do something about it. that's the cross asset price action. your single names this morning, let's say good morning to romaine. romaine: the moves in commodities obviously a big player right now. causing a lot of investors to look at the volatility in the commodities space and wonder if that is going to be beneficial to the bottom line or whether it could be a value trap. right now, a lot of folks seem to be bidding these names up. you talk about some of those soft commodities. big export products coming out of the eastern european region.

a big maker of fertilizer here, they talked a little bit with bloomberg news about the disruption of a lot of the ammonia and other nutrients coming out of that russian region, saying that the disruption in the short term will continue to push prices higher. keep an eye on the oil services, the worst-performing of the energy stocks over the last couple of weeks, primarily because of its outsized exposure to the russian economy. citi said it had the highest exposure, higher than halliburton and a couple of the other names. those shares higher on the day after some new sell side notes saying this company could also potentially be a beneficiary. with all of the disruption in the energy space, it has put a renewed focus on renewable energy. electric cars a big component of the biden administration plan. to get word from ford about the separation of its two businesses, one the ev business that is going to be the new

business. they are still going to be the same umbrella. there's not going to be a spinoff, but they will be run as two distinct units, allowing the company to focus on the ev rollout. that is going to but a lot of interesting focus back on gm and its crews business. the founder of that business is going to be stepping back into the ceo spotlight after some does agreement -- after some disagreement between the ceo -- the previous ceo and mary barra about whether those businesses should be separated. tom: emily rowland with us right now of john hancock, the co- chief investment strategist. it is a gift. price up, you'll down. do you reallocate out of full faith and credit? emily: we are continuing to

emphasize intermediate-term higher quality bonds in the u.s. it has been an area we have been focused on in our recommendations for quite some time. we want to be there right now. we have seen an economic growth climate which is slowing. clearly there's a lot of crosscurrents now. stagflation is in the mix. we've clearly seen a bid for that part of the market. we are really thinking about risk management right now. that is going to continue to be critical. we are being very careful about the way we are traversing in other areas of those credit markets, particularly emerging-market debt. tom: that sounds like john hancock gloom. i know you did this at boston college. let's go to the r squared. do you run conservative money now, or do you have to be more idiosyncratic even the war? emily: we have to be extremely thoughtful here, and this market has been incredibly challenging because it feels as if the odd

safety trade has been energy and cyclicals and other parts of the market like quality stocks that underperform. we think there is an opportunity here to add to those divisions. we see it again in an economic growth climate that is slowing, but still positive. we are nowhere near recession right now. pmi's over the course of the last week still well above 50. we see in earnings backdrop particularly in the u.s. where earnings revisions are positive. in this type of environment, we want to allocate on a to quality growth. we want companies with great balance sheets. we want good earnings stability as we continue to see this play out. lisa: does this count for europe as well, or is this a u.s. type of positioning? emily: we want to be careful about the way we are sorting through the european market, potentially around dynamics.

in sectors like technology and health care, which have really strong secular growth stories and some upside potential based on better earnings prospects, being thoughtful in europe is really going to be key here. emerging-market equities are another area where you want to be thoughtful, but there's an interesting tailwind which is that chinese policymakers are stimulating which is helping their market. lisa: how much are you actually moving allocations right amidst this uncertainty? emily: we aren't. it is so hard to focus on the intermediate-term, and that is exactly what we are trying to do. there are tons of crosscurrents impacting markets. it is about playing a little bit of defense, thinking a lot about risk management, but also focusing on the immediate term. we see in earnings environment that is supportive, but we have seen a lot of challenges in terms of the choppiness of the federal reserve trying to hike rates into a slowing growth

environment. that is going to be a big challenge, particularly over the coming months. the fed is in a position where damned if you do, damned if you don't. if you don't, you risk the twos-tens, but if you do, you risk this inflationary spiral we are seeing play out in the markets. really challenging for the federal reserve. tom: are we going to see use of cash that is normal? how do you assume corporations adapt? i use it as corporate issuance and the rest. what is going to be the use of cash forward when this crisis ends? tom:tom: i think corporations -- emily: i think corporations are doing a lot of work right now. you were reporting about yesterday and how companies move forward with that. . we talked about how we think

about these huge changes in this geopolitical crisis. i think there's going to be a lot of consideration as we move forward in terms of where those investments take place. is it moving supply chains back here to the u.s.? that is one element that is going to take big investment. is it responding to higher wages and inflationary pressures? i think we will see a war on margins and that cash on the balance sheet is going to start to get deployed as those margins may become harder to defend. jonathan: emily rowland of jh investment, thank you very much. some reporting a want to speed with, from a russian state owned media corporation, saying that russia is worried about the risk of direct conflict with nato, going on to say they hope that nato has the good sense to avoid that conflict. in addition to that, on

opec-plus, the meeting just started, according to a delicate who already agreed to raise oil output by $400,000 a barrel a day in april. we are through $110 on brent. tom: on a micro basis on the bloomberg, the fact is oil has been up here. maybe even that delay in april seems forever away as well. i would go to the great work of javier blas publishing yesterday detailed dynamics on oil. i knew we got amrita coming up. this is a lot harder to do, to bring on supply. jonathan: you mentioned emory to send of energy aspects -- you mentioned amrita sen of energy aspects. she mentioned, "spiking freight rates and war insurance premiums are significantly complicate track actions. he said, you picked up on this, too.

"several shipowners have reportedly been unwilling to make bookings from the bulk it -- from the baltic or black sea due to a lack of war insurance. tom: basically -- lisa: basically, even if you don't necessarily put sanctions on, you put more on the future and what will happen if you have russian oil and all of a sudden that sanctioned. how do you trade oil when you have no sense of how inclusive russell will be -- inclusive russia will be? jonathan: coming up, amrita sen of energy aspects. and why the deutsche bank may have to rethink the ecb. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date

with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. russian military officials warned that a new phase will be more deadly and will cost millions in the brigade and armies. russia says it has captured a port on the black sea. ukraine's government did not confirm that, but has said russian forces were advancing on the city. in his state of the union address, president biden vowed to confront russia over ukraine. he warned vladimir putin that is war would leave the country weaker and most isolated, and said his work highest priority was to fight rising prices. consumer prices in the euro zone jumped 5.2% in february from a year ago. the rate exceeded expectations in the regions four lockers -- four legions -- petitions in the

region's four. last week, bloomberg reported that ford ceo jim farley was continuing that's was considering a split. he said the reorganization will give speed and startling innovation. major league baseball has canceled opening-day after owners and players failed to agree on a new collective bargaining contract. the commissioner scrapped the first two series for each defending teams. players are not happy that payrolls have shrunk 4% this -- 4% what -- 4% since 2015. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pm johnson: what we have seen already from vladimir putin's

regime in the use of the munitions they have been dropping on innocent civilians, in my view, already qualifies as a war crime. jonathan: the words of boris johnson, the british prime minister. from new york city, good morning. futures positive 0.5% on the s&p. the move in crude is up 6.5%, $110.16. brent a couple of dollars higher, i believe with a $112 handle now. looking at some of these prices, look at where we are now on the may contract at $112. go out to next year and take the june contract, $86. they call that super backwardation. just unreal. tom: it is also an original time in an original crisis. we have done everything we can to bring you informed guests on these many topics of war.

an informed guest on oil, supply and demand, and international trade is amrita sen, founder of energy aspects, out with a note on the realities of what we are reporting. i learned a long time ago to have immense respect for the trust of the system, and that trust is the basic idea of letters of credit. tell me how letters of credit are going to work now, next week into april, or to the point of backwardation jon ferro just talked about. amrita: this is the best question i have been asked. the problem is there's no letters of credit right now. nobody is willing to issue refiners, any buyers with levels of credit because of the bank uncertainty. what does it look like in a week's time? it is hard for me to say. but i would say the u.s., but

even european countries qamar fearing gas prices being so high it is going to hurt the economy. they need to be specific and clear. once they do, they can be specific and clear again with some certain banks and you can see trades start up. but right now it is complete a relative's. jonathan: opec+ s complete paralysis -- complete paralysis. jonathan: opec+ agreeing to raise 400,000 barrels a day according to one analyst. that is nothing. what are those emergency measures? >> we saw the iea releasing 60 million barrels of spr and prices rallied by six dollars on the back of that news.

it just tells you, i have been talking to traders and they are like, if you read one of those make a difference, you need 200 pounds. lisa: what is the pricing mechanism? this is a completely tight market where people gain it -- where people can't get physical delivery, and there are those that are kicking up pricing. which is? amrita: it is the former. the russian oil is there, but if you don't want to touch it, then you don't have that oil. i think it is very important to understand particularly for europe, this is very short-haul barrels. if europe needs to go and get something to substitute for russian oil, they may get u.s. oil or rest african oil, the saving time is a lot longer, but there will be a period of no oil coming for europe. that is why the mechanism is high prices.

demand has to come down. lisa: people have been arguing for, for example, the u.s. to support the shale industry, to support the local, domestic energy industry. other people have wondered out they could increase production dramatically. they are just not doing it yet on their own volition. what is your view on that? amrita: it is a tricky one because yes, they are not doing it because shareholders are making them return money to them because they have been lossmaking for a decade. but they are also trying to send a signal to the biden administration because the administration does not encourage. we also want one that is certainty, that we can continue to do that. jonathan: what you just said is

so important moments ago, essentially 2020, spring 2020 in reverse. i remember when jeff currie of goldman came on with tom and i on radio and said basically we need to breach storage capacity, and once we have done that you could see negative prices, and everyone was like, that is ridiculous. then we have negative prices. unity reverse engineer that and help me understand that. if it is spring 2020 in reverse, how high do crude prices need to go destroy demand? how much higher from here can they go? amrita: this is covid in reverse, 100% accurate. we can easily breach 150. what price do we need to be if the economy is going to really

curtail global growth? we could be talking about numbers 1.70%, 1.80%. -- wondered $70, $180. tom: is oil a given good? amrita: yes, and it is inelastic. you're coming out of covid, you still want to travel jonathan: i like that. is the number there? it is what we could be testing here. we need to continue the conversation. come back soon. at amrita sen of energy aspects. spring 2020 in reverse. restart think about the unthinkable because the unthinkable and spring 2020 was negative prices. rita is talking potentially higher than that. if that is what the analyst community is saying, spring 2020 in reverse, we could be into much higher prices.

tom: it is real simple. jeff currie taught micro economics at the university of chicago. that is place where you could see the slopes of curves changing within war. jonathan: -- lisa: i'm still having a discussion in my head about covid in reverse and just remember to look opposite and think, is this a temporary shock? what are the implications of that? jonathan: i think we are all doing this in real time tom: you said $170? while. jonathan: we have not tested this before, and perhaps we are about to find out that they -- on the s&p, of zero point percent.

yields higher by three basis points to 1.756 five and winding the move lower in yesterday's session. crude up to 6.6%. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the contagion channels for russia now are tightened on global uncertainties in commodities. >> this could exacerbate inflation, exacerbates of woes. >> i think we are all trying to figure out what is going on now. >> this looks like this is going to be a rupture that lasts for years. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. a most interesting day, to say the least.

the war