tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg March 3, 2022 1:00am-2:00am EST
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will be with us for a very long time. dani: jay powell plows ahead on rate hikes with inflation is top priority but the pitcher says he's keeping an eye on the impact of the war. commodities had for their biggest week in almost 50 years as brent touches $170 a barrel. you hearted there, the fed pushing ahead with tighter policy. powell hoping to appease the risk markets, confirming is not a 50 point -- basis point hike buddy be vigilant when it comes to combating inflation. the inflationary picture continues to get more difficult and more complicated. check out what commodities have done just in the first three days of this week so far. 8.6% so far already without even clocking in what the gains will be today and tomorrow. we are heading toward the biggest jump in commodities in a week since 1974.
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oil is among the key drivers. traders and shipping companies like unwilling to touch russian oil. is the fed may be unable to combat these high prices? there is what brent crude is doing this morning. just coming off 117 but still 3.4% higher this morning. the front end of the curve, it has been a wild ride. yields rising significantly after testimony from powell. 25 basis points in the cards but buying in the bond space due to geopolitical concerns. the euro under pressure again, trading at a may 2020 low and impacted by stronger dollar. here's your look at equities,
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moving higher this morning off the back of a higher day yesterday. the s&p of more than 1.5% yesterday. six of the past seven days u.s. stocks have slumped more than 1%. it's a choppy market but relatively calm today. the focus continues to be the story unfolding in ukraine. the you and says at least one million refugees have now fled ukraine since the invasion began a week ago, mostly to neighboring european countries. this as the fighting continues. >> whatever kind of diplomacy would unwind the crisis in ukraine, sadly as you say it's a hypothetical question. we see no sign that the russians have any intention of withdrawing right now, and indeed, their military operations in ukraine continue to escalate. dani: meanwhile french president emmanuel macron offer support
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for ukraine while acknowledging the coming days will probably be increasingly tougher. >> hundreds of ukrainian civilians have already been killed. women and children were killed again today. the coming days will probably become increasingly tougher. dani: what is the situation on the ground there in southeast poland? >> people are arriving again this morning in the early hours of this morning from the ukrainian side over to poland here. as the fighting is intensifying, there is clear concerns that more and more people will be crossing the border, not only into poland but into hungary, slovakia and the other e.u. nations that border ukraine. dani: there's also been reports of more talks between russia and ukraine and belarus today. what do we know about those? >> the potential for these talks
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, it's crucial that they focus on the cease-fire, the possibility of securing a cease fire. that's more of the long-term focus. the immediacy would be hoping to secure a humanitarian corridor. as we have heard from various leaders in the last couple of days, the civilian impact is quite significant, which is why we are seeing such high flows of refugees through poland and other european nations. dani: thanks a much for keeping us updated on the border there, monitoring the humanitarian crisis there. ukraine says it would take part in a second round of talks with moscow set for today. meanwhile the white house says it is weighing restrictions on russian oil imports. >> nothing is off the table. dani: let's bring in bloomberg's
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european correspondent. hearing from the u.s. there, are there more sanctions to come from the e.u. side? >> that is now the debate, but yesterday there was a tweet by the polish prime minister, one of the most hawkish voices on russia, saying the way i see it, the fact that there are exceptions for gazprom is completely unacceptable. the big energy giant of russia continues to make money for what is a war machine, so clearly this is where the debate is going to be next, especially as prices escalate and russia becomes more aggressive but also more indiscriminate. quickly, i want to point out that today there is the
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potential -- potentially meeting between the ukrainian delegation and the russian delegation. ukraine says it's not so clear, there have been issues about the location, not wanting to go to belarus. we know that right now even if they agree on a place in time, the two sides are very separate. we know that the ukrainians want a cease fire and to see russian troops be pulled back. when it comes to the russians, they continue to say our goal here is to de-nazify the country, that means take away the zelensky government, take away weapons from ukraine and the bid for nato. the two sides are very far apart and it's difficult to see what diplomacy going forward would look like. dani: moody's and fitch have cut
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russia's credit rating to junk, saying the severity of international sanctions against russia have implications for its ability to repay its debt. more on this we go to garfield reynolds who is joining us from sydney. obviously it's very difficult at the moment to attempt to do anything with russian debt at the moment. so what are the practical applications, at least for the time being for moody's and fitch to cut ratings? garfield: there are couple of implications. one is it really locks the door that a lot of investors have been slamming shut when it comes to russian assets. the final seal of disapproval on that front. it also will add to anybody who might've been left amongst investors who would want to go on holding russian bonds, even after a slew of indexes have cut them from their indexes.
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dani: this is the thing i have to wonder, once russian markets to open, of course it is unclear if they will open to foreigners or if they will be local. how much more additional pain should we be expecting within russian assets? garfield: there will be a lot of pain. one of the things besides credit ratings, after bond you'll soar to 30% or more, they will drop fast. russia spent a lot of time and effort back in the day regaining investments, that makes it easier for them to cap capital markets. that goes to the capacity of the
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country and its ability to do business. is going to be an extremely long road back on that front, along with whatever else might be going on geopolitically. is not a confirmation that russia's economy is likely to face a severe amount of damage from sanctions and the attitude of most of the rest of the world that this is just not permissible. over the long-term they will also have to somehow convince israeli agencies along with investors that russian assets are worth the risk of investing in, after a lot of people lost a lot of money. dani: garfield, thank you so much, garfield reynolds talking about the ratings cut for russian assets. msci and ftse will cut russian stocks from their indexes and
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tracker funds -- let's bring in our correspondent ruth carson. good morning. ftse and russell joining msci removing russia from the equity indices. what is the thinking, and are more set to follow? ruth: absolutely, it's blow after blow for russian assets and their investors right now. msci has deemed russia to be un-investable. they're focusing on the sanctions that of been placed on the nation as a whole. in terms of other index providers following, we could see a domino effect. in terms of capital, the moves by msci alone, the 32
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billion-dollar exodus of funds, but here's the crunch, investors might find it difficult to sell or liquidate or access cash with all the capitals controls already in place. dani: in terms of -- if you are a passive find and your tracking this and you have to sell russian assets and stocks, can you even do that at the moment? >> that's the key question that is on everyone's mind. what it would mean, who would be the biggest and officiate if there are new players that could be added. it's incredibly hard at the moment for anyone to access liquidity on these assets. i was speaking to a stock fund
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manager this morning. he said he had been trying desperately to sell russian stock from last week and there just haven't been any buyers. i can only imagine what it's like to sit by and watch this dani:. at least you have those managers who are tracking passive find that maybe didn't want to hold russia and now they don't have to anymore. ruth, thank you so much. let's get over to the first word news with juliette saly in singapore. juliette: a russian billionaire is set to sell with the aim of donating the proceeds to victims in ukraine. it's reported he is seeking 3 billion pounds for the business. and shares have sunk in extended trading, the software company
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that helps businesses organize data in the cloud sees revenue jumping up to 67% in the fiscal year. herb arising competition. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: juliette saly, thanks so much. coming up, we dive into the markets and jay powell's comments helping to soothe markets, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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i do think it will be appropriate to raise our target range at the march meeting in a couple of weeks and i'm inclined to propose in support of 25 basis point rate hike. to the extent inflation comes in higher or more persistently high than that, then we would be prepared to move more aggressively are raising the federal funds rate i more than when he five basis point at a meeting or meetings. we will use our tools to add to financial stability, not to create uncertainty. dani: that was fed chair jay powell speaking in front of testimony in front of the house. he expects to raise interest rates later this month in a bid to tackled inflation amid a tight later market while russia's invasion of ukraine has
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added uncertainty to the u.s. outlook. joining me is the head of fixed income and global portfolios. thanks so much for joining. listening to powell threading a very fine needle, trying to balance were going to hike but things are uncertain. what was your take on the chairman's comments? >> i think you're right, but it is clear now they will hike rates. 25 basis points is a sure thing. curing inflation is the top priority and the biggest casualty is likely to be risk assets, namely stocks. for that reason i think u.s. stocks will fall. we've had to attempted corrections in that kind of stood by. i think you need at least a bear market for the fed to potentially get less hawkish than they are right now. dani: do you see a bear market
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coming? does it get that bad? >> i think so. if you have multiple rate hikes against the backdrop of the war in europe, you still got supply chain issues. it's like a perfect storm for risk assets. the potential is there for bear market. i don't necessarily think it's a bad thing. it might force the fed to become less hawkish in the second half of the year so stocks can reflate from there. in the near term it's not a great environment for risk assets. dani: you have me excited here because it is a rare occasion when we have someone who is openly bearish on these markets. let's take a step back, a bear market for stocks, but i wonder if part of the equation going into your thinking is stagflation. if you're going to have inflation moving so much higher because of what oil and commodity prices are doing right now and you have a fed that's
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not behind the curve but not equipped to combat that. >> arguably speculation is already -- inflation is already here. stagflation has already started. i think that once you get to the summer, let's say the fed hikes rates four times. the war in ukraine the escalates or at least stabilize this, by that time i think supply chains hopefully won't be as disrupted, commodity prices will treat so the inflation dynamic i not be as hot as it is right now so the fed can be more dovish in the second half of the year. that's why think you could potentially have a v-shaped scenario for the equity market. dani: in the meantime, you are overweight cash at this moment. i could channel my inner ray dalio and say cash is trash.
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what we through your thinking of what purpose that cash is going to serve in your portfolio is your bracing for more pain. >> your colleagues said the same thing to me a few weeks ago, cash is trash. dani: we spend too much time around each other. oliver: you really don't want to invest in cash because it is a low yield asset class. it's not ideal to be in cash. the fact is that cash is finally becoming an investable asset class with potential multiple rate hikes on the horizon. even if there's less rate hikes than we are all thinking, at least cash is not using your money -- losing money right now. stocks and bonds are the ones with big headwinds. cash is the best of a bad bunch right now, i would say. dani: while were getting into the portfolio construction theories, i want to get your opinion on something pimco put out a few hours ago.
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they're talking about diversification of your portfolio. they said that perhaps instead of a classic 60-40, investors should look to commodities to act as a diversifying force as inflation pushes higher as the war disrupts supply chains. do you think there's any value in that tact? oliver: were still big believers in the 60-40 portfolio. it has served investors well. commodities don't generate cash flow. it's difficult to value them. stocks pay dividend and bonds pay coupons. so they are easy to judge valuations and commodities are not. think you can play commodities to equities and bonds anyway. in this region we stand to benefit from the crisis because of cheap oil and gas. that has a trickle-down effect to the rest of the economy.
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we've already seen that in the markets with double-digit gains this year in abu dhabi, relative to double-digit losses in other markets. you can do it with regular equities or bonds. dani: oliver, i love that you're being honest about your hometown bias. oliver will stick around with us, head of fixed income and global portfolios. coming up, here about the russian ruble and the u.s. dollar. this is bloomberg. ♪
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re-anchor your currency to something like gold? i think these are all questions that should be top of mind. i don't know if it will come to that, but if things get worse, you would basically re-anchor the ruble to a pile of gold, because you need an anchor in situations like this. dani: that was a global head of short-term interest rate strategy at credit suisse speaking on our podcast. oliver is still with us. is the dollar hegemony under threat with sanctions effectively weaponizing the dollar against russia? oliver: no, if anything, i take the opposite view. at times like this, investors will turn to hard currencies like the dollar because it's a safe haven, right? again, with comparison to this part of the world, our dollars are -- currencies are pegged to
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the dollar. i don't see that changing anytime soon. i would see that relationship strengthening. i don't see currencies being based off of gold and i don't see crypto's replacing them. bitcoin is not a moving exchange. we don't see crypto's replacing the dollar soon either. dani: i wonder was gold, does it serve as a good hedge in this environment? it had a little bit of a perk up but hasn't been able to some staying -- sustain any substantial gains. oliver: it's a small single-digit allocation. gold is the ultimate fear trade. i agree, it should've been doing better in a war scenario. that's why we don't hold too much of it. doesn't generate cash flow like traditional asset classes of
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stocks and bonds. we are not jumping in. dani: we need to tell some bitcoin believers about analog goal. thanks for joining us, oliver. coming u at xfinity, we live and work in the same neighborhood as you. we're always working to keep you connected to what you love. and now, we're working to bring you the next generation of wifi. it's ultra-fast. faster than a gig. supersonic wifi. only from xfinity. it can power hundreds of devices with three times the bandwidth. so your growing wifi needs will be met. supersonic wifi only from us... xfinity. as a small business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving with comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year.
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ms ein ftse boot the nation pot stocks from their indexes. >> this will be a game changer. dani: jay powell plows ahead on rate hikes. the fed chair says he is keeping an eye on the impact of the war. stocks climb on powell's words. brent touches $117 a barrel. it is all about this commodity shock in markets. we are going to speak about that. we are looking at the biggest weekly gain for the bloomberg commodity spot index since 1974. that is even without today, without tomorrow. it is a shock in commodities. you still have powell hiking rates.
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it might be too late. we might already be heading toward a bear market, at least when it comes to the stock market. let's get your quick check on markets. oil flirting with $117. brent continuing to push higher. traders, shipping companies unwilling to touch the asset flowing from russia. you are back to bond buying and the perceived safety. yesterday, two-year yields did get up to 1.5% after powell said we are going to go ahead with a 25 basis point hike. off the back of powell. we are looking at european equities flipping to negative down 1/10 of a percent. let's go back to the commodities space, which has been rocked by events in ukraine, particularly the oil market. brent surpassed $117 to touch the highest level since 2014.
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for more, we are joined by andrew. in the middle of all of this, we also had an opec-plus meeting keeping their quota the same, but do they have any specific response to turmoil in the market set off by russian invasion in ukraine? >> there was no response. they pretty much ignored it. in one point, the mexican oil minister tries to raise the invasion. it is perhaps not surprising given that russia is the second most influential. it is going to be much more difficult to ignore. it is putting the saudi's in a
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difficult position here. they want to maintain the alliance with russia, but if there is no resolution to the situation in ukraine and oil keeps pushing higher, they are going to come under immense pressure from the u.s., europe, and others to do something and pump more. that much, there may have to be a lot more discussion on russia's invasion of ukraine. dani: aside from opec-plus pumping out more oil, what else can stop this parabolic rally? >> well, there are a couple of things. we have the u.s. and the iea talking about strategic reserves releases. 6 million barrels. that will have some impact, but it is less than two thirds of daily global crude consumption. it is not likely to have a massive impact. we also have the iran talks. that could put some more oil
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onto the market. i think goldman just a few days ago forecast brent at $115. we have already blown through that. there doesn't seem to be much that can stop it. hard to say exactly when. dani: $150 is a prediction of where oil could get with sanctions. andrew, thank you. let's turn our attention to the broader commodity picture with wheat soaring to a new 14 year high. joining me now is the head of research at ed&f. i want to pick up on a point that andrew left off on. short of demand destruction, it does not seem like oil prices are going to be able to come down. do we have any idea of what level we need to see in this energy space for fertilizing
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companies, industries to start experiencing demand destruction because of prohibitively high cost and the energy sphere? >> we are possibly getting to that stage already. the situation we are facing now has not been seen since 2008 when we last saw massive inflation. what you are going to get now is not just the energy, but also the food importing countries. heavily relying on russia and ukraine for most, if not all of the wheat and grains. you are going to start seeing extreme distress. this is the type of stuff that leads to food riot and massive turmoil. it is a big problem. together, russia and the u.k. account for global wheat
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exports, 90% of corn exports. ukraine is about 80% of sunflower oil, the cooking oil we use for a day-to-day basis for food. although the sanctions at the moment are not on food commodities just like they are not in the energy sector for the region, the market is almost pricing in that it is already happening. if you think of it, there are no shipments going on. what is going to happen at harvest time or planting time? is there even the manpower to plant the crops? dani: i just want to jump in because that is a question i had. i know a lot of forecasts depend on what happens and what unfolds , but taken where things already are, farmers have likely turned in their seeds for guns to fight for their country -- how much of this damage that we have seen is
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going to be lasting into later this year and potentially next year if things don't even get worse from where they already are? >> i think that is the biggest scenario. we are looking at a short-term reaction. there will be something. some of the older people may not be able to move out. but the younger, the laborers, sometimes they rely on foreign labor. that is definitely not happening. you are seeing labor going out of the country. access to imports material, all of this is seriously constrained, so i do worry about crops for russia and ukraine. they are critical for the world. it is coming at a time when the global market was already tight. there is no room for error. dani: you also mentioned how we see, much like oil and gas, the
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soft commodities, traders are not treating them as such. are we seeing them the same from those coming out of russia priced at a very heavy discount but no one is willing to touch it? >> what i've heard is that right now not much is coming out at all because traders are unwilling to go there and expose themselves to any risk. some of the shipments are already closed. to actually try to go and get shipments of the grains out of their is too risky of a proposition. there are entities that don't want to have exposure to the region at all. whether it is from shelling, military action, or outright sanctions. they don't want to get involved. it is almost at a standstill right now. dani: i do wonder, you help a
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lot of different industries cope with the commodity market. i wonder when it comes to people who will be hedging higher commodity prices, be it a pig farmer looking at higher prices of feed -- to what degree would they have been prepared for this type of scenario or is industry just caught wildly off guard to the skyhigh prices? >> to a certain extent, they are definitely pricing in higher prices. as i mentioned, the global markets were pretty tight already. we have the u.s. wheat planes were already pretty dry. brazil and argentina have very dry weather in the south. there were already weather issues causing lower production. this kind of disruption, i don't know if anyone was expecting that.
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they would definitely be called out on this. dani: last thought. >> the best thing they can do is try not to make a move to different origins. china is definitely going to be looking at that. china is already heavily buying from brazil already. dani: i was just about to thank you and say how great your insights are, so i definitely did not mean to step on more in it from you. appreciate you joining this morning. let's get to the first word news with juliette saly in singapore. >> a pentagon official says russian forces of -- appeared to be stalled on the outskirts of kyiv. defense officials expect moscow to learn from early mistakes and regroup. the official sees little having
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changed on the battlefront over the past day, although russian troops have made some modest progress and ukraine's south. the federal reserve chair is making the fight against inflation his top priority over the risk from russia's invasion in ukraine. he backed a 25 basis point hike later this month, adding that a bigger or more persistent rate hike path would be warranted if u.s. inflation stays hot. >> i do think it will be appropriate to raise our target range at the march meeting in a couple of weeks and i'm inclined to propose a 25 basis point rate hike. to the extent inflation is more persistently high, then we would be prepared to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings. >> russia's credit rating has been cut to junk by moody's and fitch ratings as risks mount
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that sanctions could undermine its capability and willingness to service debt. moody's downgraded the foreign debt rating from paa three to be three and fitch/to levels and placed it on negative watch. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani: thanks so much. coming up, up for sale. chelsea football club on the market. we will look at how sanctions are targeting russia's wealthiest business people next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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or north korea. >> i think that is not ethical for us to do. >> as this is very quickly evolving, we keep discussing it and monitoring it. >> ukraine's largest airline will pivot away from the reversals and start flying more flights to each destination. >> we see indirect bit -- impact on our business. customers are not so much focused. >> i would say to all shareholders i think it is time you got real and left russia. dani: some of our guests on doing business with russia.
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wti is soaring this morning, touching the highest level since 2008. traders and shipping companies unwilling to touch oil exports from russia. it is pretty wild to think that in just about a month we will be at the two-year anniversary of this oil contract of wti turning negative. let's stick with the russia story and turn to the wealthiest and russia. roman abramovich is selling chelsea football club. his ties to russia are being scrutinized. he is seeking 3 billion pounds from the sale of the football club and has said that proceeds will go to a foundation for ukraine war victims. he has not been personally sanctioned by the united states, but -- by the u.k. joining me now is our guest.
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involving high net worth individuals and businesses engaged in the country. thanks for joining us. great to have you in the studio. you have worked and looked into a lot of the people in russia. given that this is a big change to their lifestyle, how have they been reacting not just in public but perhaps privately as well? >> the first thing to saiz that they are in the eye of the store at the moment. the extent of sanctions could become greater. we expect to see increasing sanctions regimes as well. there has been a scramble to sell off assets. luxury assets are in the process of being seized. many people are trying to mitigate it. >> all of scramble at this moment? >> i would imagine so, yes. dani: that is what they are
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doing. how are they likely feeling? we have had some public speaking from these oligarchs about what sort of pressures they are under now. >> it started with the children of many of the oligarchs taking to instagram in tiktok and speaking out against the war. so far, that reaction has remained fairly muted from the business community. there have been limited instances of speaking out against the war itself, however no one has as yet criticize the kremlin or teabag directly. dani: that is interesting. there has been a lot of talk of you put pressure on the oligarchs, that means pressure on teabag -- on putin. what does it mean in terms of influence? >> it is difficult to say, but in matters of foreign policy and
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strategic state decisions that while the oligarchs have some form of access and as you saw in the meeting last week, it does not extend to influence over foreign policy and that is unlikely to change. dani: i don't want to just talk about oligarchs because much of your job is about investigating businesses related to russia as well. what has business flow look like over the past few weeks? >> we work with clients all around the world. right now, everyone is trying to work out what the lay of the land is and waiting to see how the dust settles. the appetite for russian workers is extremely limited or any engagement with russia itself. i would expect that to continue in the medium-term. dani: can you also get into the paralysis of firms right now? we have publicly heard of a lot of firms looking at getting rid of russian assets. how confusing is the current picture for these companies? >> it is>> a big change from
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2014 and 2017 when there were sanctions. there was not the same level of private sector reaction to it and many firms estate in russia. this time around, we are in unprecedented territory with sanctions and what is going on in ukraine. dani: back in 2014, eventually business came back. what sort of sounds have you heard on whether that will be the case this time? >> it is too early to say, but at the moment there is very limited appetite. the cost of doing business in russia from a reputational point of view and a pure complexity point of view is so increased at the moment. dani: the other risk for businesses is cyberattacks and ransomware attack's. have we seen any of that? >> there has not been an uptick in the last week or so in cyberattacks against corporate. but there is an unprecedented scale of cyberwar for taking place in ukraine and russia at the moment and businesses should remain alert to the fact that it could spillover into their area
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and they must remain cautious. dani: who would be the most vulnerable? >> probably critical infrastructure, defense, and health care. those are traditionally targeted by cyber attackers. dani: especially if you are a company, the disney's of the world, the carmakers of the world, who are pulling out of russia and being very public about it, how vulnerable are they to these types of ransomware attack's? >> every businesses vulnerable. the thing you've got to do is make sure you have the right policies in place and that you are hypervigilant at all times. dani: septimus, thank you very much. that is septimus knox. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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dani: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm dani burger in london. with wti continuing to push higher today, it has now touched the highest level since 2008. again and again we see russian oil being offered at a discount, yet there is very little willingness to buy it and trade it. that is what wti is doing. let me show you what brent is doing. back about $117 a barrel. all commodities are on a tear. we are looking at the best week for the bloomberg commodities spot since 1974. boil crisis back then, some echoes of the market reaction. not too much of a reaction from other assets. we are seeing bond buying resume. the front end of the curve, the
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most volatile at the moment. it is just below 1.5%. is preach to that level after we saw some selling with powell saying we are going to go ahead with tighter policy, but it is not going to be 50 basis points. we look at two-year yields dropped by 2.5 basis points. the euro has been under immense pressure. while the fed is expected to move, the ecb is expected to put things on hold. the european economy heavily affected, so your euro looking at a may 2020 low. not a lot of movement on stocks. we are now looking at very, very slight means. basically unchanged at this point. it comes after european and u.s. equities rallied yesterday thanks to jay powell calming the markets. coming up, we will be speaking to the deputy governor of the national bank of ukraine on its rate decision. that will be just after 1:00
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anna: good morning. i'm anna edwards in london. mark cudmore joins us from singapore to take us through all of the market action this hour. the cash trade is less than an hour away. russia's invasion of ukraine denounced by the united nations underscoring moscow's increasing isolation. moody's and fitch slash the credit rating to junk. >>
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