overbought, but it can remain overbought for weeks. >> we are thinking about risk management right now. >> the question is of how to control inflation without doing much damage. >> threw too much risk of the fed doing too little. "bloomberg surveillance." this is -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: what a moving crude. for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom crane -- tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. brent 119.84. tom: look at the moves here, saudi light, which is something i have followed back to the 1960's is at 3.3 standard deviation move on inflation-adjusted oil. on real oil. i have never seen that. jonathan: your take away from

yesterday and look forward today? tom: he is traipsing forward, waiting for the data, and also buffeted by the politicians. question here is fed independence. i saw an independent chair yesterday. jonathan: got to work out the volatility as well. lisa, russia, the financial walls are closing in. inspire and she. day by day. lisa: you're saying this with respect to sanctions. also in practice. i was struck by how it is broadening out, even aluminum. every area of the commodities sector. people do not want supplies from russia. what point does this make a difference in bringing russia to the negotiating table? jonathan: in the last 60 minutes and loan companies responding to this, tom would the bank out of italy, under strategic review. both wagons -- volkswagen halting production in russia. just company after company. tom: moments ago ikea -- i

shopped often -- pauses operations in russia and belarus. to me that has more of a profound impact than you would say out of volkswagen, because that is retail and that is the middle class of russia that have to react to what is to put has done. jonathan: that is the business issue, then we have the investment issue on top of that. tom, people want to get out. they cannot exit the traits because the market is still sharp. tom: i know mike mckee forwarded the notes on that. you are absolutely right. what is important here is, these markets will clear, and we are watching a bloomberg screen to see those dynamics. the number one dynamic this morning is the euro swiss has not given up. jonathan: futures down .2% on the s&p. the nasdaq 100 down .4%. this treasury market has been all over the place over the last

couple of days. up 17 basis points in yesterday's session alone. jonathan: those ranges are -- tom: those ranges are wide. the two tins is ecstatic. john, those ratios are important. the real yield was a -.100. that is a lot of stress. jonathan: lisa, euro weakness? lisa: really the big question is what is the offramp? how do we end this near-term? that is what i am watching. ukraine may be holding a second round of talks with russia on the border of belarus and poland , as the devastation does continue. we are hearing from the kremlin that need -- that ukraine

negotiators are in a rush to come to talks. how much can we see an exit strategy at a time when so many people are looking at this and saying, look, we have a financial war on one hand and an actual war on one hand, and is there any winning in this situation? we have day two of chad fair -- fed chair jay powell's testimony. he did say i think it is more than likely that we can achieve what we call a soft landing. they are far more common in our history than is generally understood. we also heard from a number of fed officials yesterday with contrary ideas. james bullard coming out and saying this situation calls for a rapid withdrawal of policy accommodation in order to preserve the best chance for a durable expansion. chicago fed president charlie evans said basically this approach so far is wrongfooted. so how do we achieve that soft landing?

have a slew of economic data. how much does it matter at a time when people are looking at a changing landscape? we get jobless claims and february ism services data. we are looking at a market facing inflation with job openings at the fastest pace on record. almost 11 million job openings. john, what is the reaction function with cpi coming in at the hottest pace in decades? are people going to come into the labor market more quickly in order to get enough money to sustain some of the levels of the pricing of goods? jonathan: cpi and america one week away. lisa, thank you. team coverage starts with maria tadeo, aggi cantrill. we heard from the russian foreign minister this morning. your take away? maria: well, jonathan, when i was trying to watch this press conference it was almost impossible. why? because the russian channels in

europe is now off the air. so finding this press conference, even on youtube, was a real challenge. the russian foreign minister says there is still a diplomatic solution here, that russia is still willing to talk. but i would be very careful here, because what russia says is that they want to go into these talks with a number of conditions. that means they talk about a new government in ukraine, they say ukraine will have to give up weapons, and they also have to give up their bid for nato and the eu. when i speak ukrainian officials in brussels they say this is capitulation, this is not a negotiation, and they are not going to agree to this. what ukraine wants today in this meeting, if it happens -- it is not clear it will. ukrainians are concerned about locations. they said they want to talk about a cease-fire and humanitarian aid. nothing beyond that. jonathan: let's talk about the humanitarian crisis emerging. the pictures coming out of ukraine are upsetting.

can you help us understand the scale of what we are facing here? aggi: hi, john. what we are seeing on the border is a lot of people, a steady flow of refugees every day, every hour, from the ukrainian side of the border. this is a short drive from lvov, but we are seeing people waiting for days to cross this border. we are also seeing on the others a lot of polish people trying to help get humanitarian aid back into ukraine. this is also part of the discussion when it comes to the talks that maria was discussing. we are talking about humanitarian corridors. the who has said there is an urgent need for humanitarian corridors to access places like kyiv, which are suffering from attacks that are not just targeting military bases, but also civilian targets. tom: aggi, tom keene in new york. thank you so much for being here with us this morning.

if a given tech company in america was, say, $200 billion on the balance sheet, wanted to write a $1 billion check this morning to help on the border, where would you think that would best spend that? what is the need right now of big american money? aggi: i think it is difficult to say, tom, where exactly the money would be best-spent, other than here we are seeing a lot of different aid workers here. we are seeing a lot of the red cross during the yuan has done a massive campaign to try to get money into their institutions so they can support people. the yuan has a long-standing network, not only in eastern europe, but all over the world and they are well-versed in dealing with this. i have been talking to people on the ground here, and they are saying they are expecting many, many more refugees to come to the borders in the coming weeks. lisa: maria, do you get a sense from the european leaders you speak to that you believe

sanctions are working and trying to bring this to a close in the very near term? aggi: -- maria: but they say is it depends on vladimir putin. particularly my contacts that are eastern european, they say there is no point second-guessing what he is going to do. the only thing you can do is prep for it. are these sanctions working or not? for the europeans say yes, they are doing damage. we have not seen the full impact, because russia is still shut for normal business. just to give you some color here, because this is also quite telling, the french government today put out a letter about 40 minutes ago saying, we have seized a mega-yacht that would essentially belong to the french state until we figure out what to do with it. germans are doing the same, and the italians are looking to do the same. talk about real damage to the russian economy, but also damage to the oligarchs. these are people that have really longed to belong to the

upper echelons of european society, and today they are seeing their properties are being taken away. jonathan: maria, fantastic work. just brilliant from the whole team here. maria tadeo and aggi cantrill here. the ceo of oil company rosneft and they close ally of putin as well. as we understand in france, this yacht was in the french riviera in a shipyard for repairs. then they got an understanding that perhaps that was going to make an emergency departure, and that is when they seized the boat. tom: is going to be a lot of that. to lisa's question, there is going to be massive follow-through on sanctions and that is something we all need to see. jon, to me the focal point seems to be londongrad and what the lawyers will do. an article for bloomberg today highlighted that. what would you suggest is the next step for the city? jonathan: i want to figure out

how roman abramowitz of chelsea sells the club and who wants to buy it? we have an asset there for 3 billion sterling and you want to sell it, can you imagine being the buyer and trying to work out what would happen if you try and make that transaction? does your money get trapped? can you actually make that transaction cleanly over the next couple of days? do you get trapped in by sanctions? tom: i would suggest the people on the back end of the trade probably get what they want. but what happens to mr. abramowitz? including loans that they have from chelsea? jonathan: i want to pick up on the phrase they use -- net proceeds will go to chelsea. what are the net proceeds after the sale? tom: to me that is the major question, the accounting. jonathan: who knows? the nasdaq down .3%. w t i, 113. from new york, this is bloomberg.

ritika: the one ukraine has now entered its second week. russia pushed ahead with their offensive. they fired missiles at the capital city and stepped up their campaign to take cities in the coastal south. or than one million refugees have fled to neighboring countries. meanwhile, a second round of talks between russia and ukraine a set to take place today. in the price of oil sort to its highest level since 2008. west texas intermediate futures jumped 4% before falling back. buyers continue to shun russian crude. customs officials in france have seized a giant yacht owned by rostov cto -- the rest of ceo. french authorities yacht was docked and being prepared for an urgent departure. jerome powell is making the

fight against inflation his top priority. pala testified before a house panel wednesday and will appear before a senate committee today. he says he supports a quarter-point interest-rate increase later this month. the congressional committee investigating the attack on the capital now claims to have evidence that former president trump may have committed a crime. that is according to a filing in federal port -- federal court. it may contain evidence of an instruction of an official proceeding to block the release of the emails. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

"bloomberg surveillance." from the world of politics to the world of business, "balance of power" with david westin. weekdays. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the near term effects on the u.s. economy of the invasion of ukraine, sanctions, and events yet to come remain highly uncertain. making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. jonathan: chairman powell of the federal reserve, day one on capitol hill. day two later today. from new york city, good morning. futures negative. the s&p trading lower by .1%. the move we have seen in crude,

just a monster move. the ti -- wti at 113. -- $113. yields have come back a couple of basis points after blasting high yesterday. for a fourth straight session tom, can't get away from it, euro weakness. tom: very fragile. we are watching it take by ticket. jon, i would suggest that 110. 81, the euro is resilient. jonathan: this is brutal, the inverse correlation with what is happening with crude and the euro weaker, that is vicious for the inflation story. tom: there is no question about it. the dynamics, we will continue to bring it to you this morning across equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities.

we are going to continue to monitor all by ukraine and particularly the black sea. at first we must turn to, what do you do given this war? steve chiavarone joins us, manager at federated. what do you do when you get a three standard deviation run on commodities? what do you do when oil spikes like this? steve: well, i think there is two things you do. we try to understand what impact that has as part of the larger inflation, hon both equities and fixed income, right? your traditional income classes. and certainly the bind puts the fed in. we thing going on in europe is even more inflationary than what was in place before. we detailed our concerns about that inflation for the last year on our show. in terms of the commodity eight itself you have to look at supply and demand, and a suggests that unless a significant supply starts coming onto market prices are one to

continue to be biased higher on energy. tom: is this place -- a place to use cash? federated has a little bit laying around, but how do you change tone on cash, given a global, and certainly a regional, crisis like this? steve: i think as you assess the outlook for at least the first half of this year, cash is an attractive asset class right here. and certainly more attractive than longer-duration fixed income, which is heavily pressured by rising inflation. and what appears to be a fed that, even if they are not going to do 50 basis points in march, is going to be well in a hiking cycle. there is a good chance that equities will continue to be under pressure the first half of the year from that rising discount rate. so, yeah, we do find ourselves trimming fixed income and adding to cash above and beyond what we would normally hold in our portfolios. lisa: yesterday we heard they powell speak and people writing

stories saying because of his addressing inflation we actually saw markets calm down and we saw markets revert to where they were before. did he say anything newsworthy yesterday to justify that? steve: i think it depends on what you allow yourself to believe coming in. we had entertained 50 basis points in march. it was never a consensus house call for us. it was generally 25, and we thought they would move in 25 basis point increments this year . i think that is still the base case, and he gave himself the out, or freed the market of worrying about 50 in march, but he was clear to say the fed could revisit 50. they are in such a difficult spot right now. go too fast they risk stagflation. go too slow, and inflation can become a trend. it is a difficult time, i think, to be fed chair. lisa: a lot of people were talking about the possibility of

a soft landing before the oil shock. at this point do you think the ideas off the table? i say this knowing you are building up cash. steve: i would not say it is off the table, lisa. i would say it is a sink -- a shrinking landing strip. there is a scenario here where the fed hikes just right. maybe that is four times, maybe that is five times. if we do 2% of hikes over the next 24 months, that is probably ok. it doesn't mean that a recession will not follow, but it is probably so far out that you are not worried about it and markets right now. -- in markets right now. i don't think we know the answer yet. so, pace is going to matter, and incoming data is going to matter. and the response of inflation is going to matter. jonathan: also as always. steve chiavarone there at federated. lisa, the growth outlook. that is something we need to focus on a little bit more here. crude at $113, brent close to

120 dollars. is this where we need to start trimming the outlook for gdp and everything else? lisa: a lot of people are pointing to europe and saying it is going to take a much more material right out of gdp there. in the united states it is such a strong economy. we are looking at unemployment rates at a lopez. we are looking at wage increases at a very fast pace. at what point can we offset that and at what point can't we? jonathan: if you are tuning in a couple of things happened. mse i said they are cutting russian benchmarks. then in the last 60 minutes we have talked about this, two companies making the same move we have seen from a range of companies over the last week. volkswagen saying they are stopping production in russia, halting exports to russia. tom, at the moment it is company

after company. tom: what i would note yesterday and in the wonderful conversation with david folk arts, about the fiscal stimulus we are going to see in europe, this is a europe and in support of ukraine and a staunch mr. boudin. -- mr. putin. it is a new fiscal regime in europe. jonathan: had a headline from the washington post that the president, asking congress for $32.5 billion in ukraine covid eight. lisa: the ukraine covid ada, i would like to dig in -- in terms of how it will get allocated. he is trying to type into this bipartisan empathy for the million or so refugees who have left ukraine. jonathan: guiding you through the morning to the opening bell. three hours away. futures down .1%.

the nasdaq down .2%. but what a rally we saw overnight in crude. uti at $113 right now. brent came really close to $120. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: futures unchanged this morning, but we have been all over the place. on the s&p we are pretty much dead flat. all over the place in the bond market. twos, down around nine basis points on tuesday, then up 17, just like that. chairman powell building out the front end. i think that is what we have to talk about a little bit more. i did not hear a dovish chairman powell yesterday. what inflation coming hot on march 10? tom: comparing the short and to the long end, after 36 basis points, that is barely a move. and that is the sustaining of

short hialeah -- higher yields. jonathan: let's talk about crude. early this morning, $116.57. brent, we came close to $120. up about two and a half -- 2.5%. just short of $115. what a move we have seen. russian crude, about 70% of it cannot find buyers right now. the consequences of that playing out in this commodity market. tom: the goes to the demand destruction mystery. people try to out numbers, but i'm hearing 170, given no demand destruction. what do you substitute if you don't have oil? jonathan: demand is going to get hit, and you have to demand less of it. it is as simple as that. tom: the dollar ruble is back over the last 24 hours to 107,

but very emotional, to say the least. in the american economy with high-frequency economics, working with carl weinberg. rubeela, a gallon of gas, we do not have a quote yet for this morning. it will be higher. what is a gallon of gas higher due to the american economy in your framework? rubeela: good morning. that is a very important question. this is what we are trying to figure out, because we are seeing sustained gains in gasoline prices. we have seen the effect of gas -- of oil prices spilling over to what consumers are going to be facing. that has been concern as households allocate a larger portion of their budgets toward gasoline prices and toward food prices too. i think that is a concern. consumer sentiment is already quite depressed. if we continue to see this move up, you know, i think that is

going to be a big factor on the demand side. tom: we saw ikea moments ago say they will exit belarus and russia in some form. and that speaks to the middle class. i saw target with bang up earnings. i know analyzing target is outside your remit, but what is the state of the middle class a year from now in america? rubeela: a lot of that depends on what happens, you know, as events unfold. what are they looking at? are they still looking at higher gasoline prices, higher food prices? it is our expectation that these things are going to settle down, that there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding outcomes right now. for now we are still looking for positive momentum in the u.s. economy. we are looking at upside risk to inflation arising from the conflict, from higher oil and gas prices. we do think that once we get past volatility ends will settle down to a point where it is more

acceptable that inflation will be at levels where -- which will be more accessible for households. lisa: what is the historical precedent most relevant to this moment? rubeela: i am not sure that we have a relevant. we can look back to the 1970's. i don't think this situation is really comparable. it is unique in that we are coming out of a pandemic and going into another shock, which is the war in ukraine. i do think the situation is unique. i think that there is a lot of things we don't know in terms of linkages, in terms of, what happens when russia does not make payments? what happens when it does not buy foreign debt? what are the implications for europe and the u.s. economy? i think that is also going to play into it going forward. lisa: a theme i have noticed through a number of different notes has been about employment and how all of those job openings will start getting filled as inflation goes higher.

especially due to the shock, because people will need more income. do you believe that? do think that is what it will take to tighten this labor market and see people actually come in, and that leads to lower rate -- lower wage increases? rubeela: for now we are going to see is ongoing supply and demand imbalances. that is our base case, and that is going to lead to higher wages. how long that persists, i don't think the companies have that appetite to reach that level of acceptance. or you look at your process and margins and say, this is not acceptable. you're going to look for alternate ways. i think companies are already doing that. it is important that for now we are going to see the imbalances. that is going to keep job growth going. there should also be an incentive for some relief on the supply side. that is our base case. expect people will come back and we will be looking at the purchaser pay rates when we get the data tomorrow.

tom: rubeela, there is this small matter of war. we certainly don't make light of it, but job is to guess the american economy. do you agree with james bullard of st. louis that it may be more buoyant than anybody expects? we could get a run rate of 3% -- or dare i say, 4% -- real gdp? rubeela: the fundamentals right now are solid. there is nothing to suggest that the u.s. economy is looking at a sharp, substantial slowdown. even when we estimate growth in the second half of the year we are estimating a growth rate that is close to 2.5%. this economy has a lot of momentum. the biggest risk is that things can change very quickly, especially given the geopolitical backdrop. we don't know what oil prices are going to do. you don't know what the supply side is. tom: rubeela, completely unfair

question, but you, unfortunately, have to speak to carl weinberg each and every day. he is truly expert and experienced in international debt workouts. how do you and dr. weinberg feel out of this war we will work out the debt structures of ukraine, eastern europe, and new iron curtain? rubeela: i think he has been speaking to this quite a bit. the fact that we don't really know what the implications are, how deep these connections go. i think what comes out of it is countries either write down principles, they restructure debt. you don't have any implications of how far-reaching they would be, but from an agency perspective this is probably going to be one of those situations where we are looking at that. and has ramifications in general. lisa: if you are on the senate yankee committee today is there

any particular question you would want to hear jay powell answer? rubeela: i think you're going to hear from jay powell exactly what he said yesterday, and i don't think he wants to offer anything more. i don't think the markets can really expect anymore. he has been as clear as possible. he has laid out a path. 25 basis points, a string of rate increases, and then our base case is three rate hikes, then they reassess. if inflation does not ease -- and right now the indication from oil prices is that the energy component is not going to ease, headline inflation is going to keep accelerating. if that is the case they will continue. of course the backdrop, where the economy is, how much demand we see from this, those are important components. wattana think he can be any clearer. -- but i don't think he can be any clearer. this was very surprising to see that he actually laid out a 25

basis points rate hike. he has taken all of the uncertainty. he has made sure the fed is not a source of distress in the market. jonathan: rubeela, great to catch up. i was surprised by that too. rubeela farooqi of high-frequency economics. barclays making a call too. just put out an estimate for inflation. 7.9%. tom: jon, 7.9% is not 8%. could you imagine the institutional reaction to an 8% statistic? we heard the tension therefrom lawrence summers there yesterday. jonathan: from morgan stanley right now, has an eight handle. they say this, we expect a 25 point basis hike, march. our base case includes a 50 basis point hike in may instead.

this inflation story, tom, it is kind of sticky. tom: this is really important. the media spends a lot of time on magnitude and the parlor game of 7.9%, a percent, whatever. i'm looking at the x-axis. the timeline here. it is radically extended out where we have an inflation impulse further. jonathan: this comes on march 10, and i said this earlier this week. lisa, economists will come on, strategist will too, and say it is one data point, it doesn't change the world. if you get on march 10 8%, you think that changes things going into that meeting? lisa: i think it would have to come up that he is already aware of this. what is he going to do? especially because what you are seeing in the bond market is not the idea that this is going to be a soft landing or productive. jonathan: he has told us what he is going to do already, 25 basis points. lisa: true. jonathan: to the extent that

inflation comes in higher than we would be prepared to move more aggressively by raising the fed funds rate by more than 25 at a meeting or meetings? tom: she would be talking about may 4? what is the distance now talking these horrific events, this horrific war. i'm sorry, but may i'm more interested in march 4 -- may 4. jonathan: that feels like a lifetime away. never mind what is playing out in ukraine. futures down on the s&p, and the nasdaq down around .33 percent. we back away from session highs on crude. on brent, really close to $120 overnight. in the bond market, yields down two basis points. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: he kimye up-to-date --ritika: i'm ritika gupta. president biden is trying to

pressure blood may put in of ukraine. at the same time the u.s. is signaling it does not want the crisis to spiral out of control with provocative acts. it postponed a missile test scheduled for this week. the administration has refrained from discussing regime change in moscow. the price of wheat is continuing its meteoric rise. it passed $11 a bushel, to the highest level since 2008. prices are up some 50% and the last month. russia's invasion of ukraine has brought shipments to a virtual standstill. in a new study underscores a potential danger of lifting pandemic curbs too quickly. japanese scientists say the an strain of the coronavirus is 40% more lethal than seasonal flu. it is still much lower than the fatality rate seen earlier in the outbreak. in japan former nissan director kelly was found guilty of

helping carlos ghosn. a court gave the american executive a six-month suspended sentence. they were arrested the same day in november 2018, but ghosn made a spectacular escape. challenging united auto workers union. musk says that tesla will do nothing to stop union organizers. musk's challenge came after president biden failed to mention tesla while promoting ev's in his state of the union address. the president is a big supporter of labor unions. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is going broke -- this is bloomberg. ♪

>> hasn't been decided yet what would happen if the russians went through. have seen no signs that the

russians have any intention of withdrawing right now. indeed, their military operations in ukraine continue to escalate. jonathan: that was ron klain, the white house chief of staff. good morning. futures negative on the s&p, down by .3%. what a move in crude. $113. tom, we just back away from that event, but overnight seemingly on our way to $120 on brent at one point. tom: i think it waits on news of military action in ukraine. we are trying to be careful on attribution, but certainly in the black sea it has been an ugly 48 hours. talk of both off of odessa. we'll have to see how that unravels this morning. any continued war news there and this ancient story will move commodities. and not just oil. there are some huge moves outside the most visible real economy. this is our most important conversation today.

underlying theories and beliefs of international relations and foreign affairs in this war. tina fordham has been kind to join us numerous times. head of global political strategy at avonhurst. tina, the theory is -- and i did a couple of interviews with jon miersheimer of realpolitik. you are adamant and he did know. dr. kissinger and the others, what did they miss? tina: i think it is the role of human agency. also, for example, the super forecasting types. they could predict when something could happen, and that it would just be accepted. of course, i would be a little bit provocative when i criticize dr. kissinger, whom i have met several times and have enormous respect for, but the realpolitik theory, the realist theory of

international affairs, says we should grant putin's security buffer, even that -- even if that means 44 million people have to be subjugated by violence. and that is the extension of it. i think people are voting with their feet in various ways. they don't want this, and when putin uses the word genocide, i think he is going to find that comes back at him in unexpected ways. tom: the map of ukraine developing from the 17th century is a move westward, including into 1945 and parts of poland. do you perceive that mr. putin wants all of ukraine? does he stop at the river? tina: i know my russian empire and soviet history. i have studied at columbia and i never thought it would be as useful as it is to me. but i think we have to be really careful when we try to parse the

kind of ashes of empire and extrapolate them to what current borders should mean. i mentioned before, the incredible comments from the kenyan ambassador to the u.n. who said, listen, we in africa all live in countries with artificial borders. we all live with people we might not choose to be with. but we are not going to go back and start redrawing borders. that is why i think our narrow understanding of history constrains us in appreciating this crisis. ukraine is not the only country who has people that speak different languages. lisa: how are we redrawing the playbook when we use financial weaponry in response to russia's invasion of ukraine? how much does this actually proved to be a useful tool versus two different ones that move past each other and recap a come both sides? tina: lisa, we are about to find

out. the scale of the sanctions and the pace of implementation has been staggering. i think that putin observes the, kind of, minor response to the 2008 war in georgia, the annexation of crimea in 2014, and thought that the penalty would be something he could live with. he has continued to say that the sanctions don't matter. but they are certainly mattering to everyday russians, who have lived through various crises where the value of the ruble has crashed. they certainly know how to live in this environment, but these are not smart sanctions. these are pretty blunt. lisa: but what is the offramp? as a he you talk and as i hear about popular discomfort in russia, does it even matter for vladimir putin, who has spent years stifling his opponent? anyone who comes out vocally against him and it just to

disappear. so how do we then translate that into an offramp that will end this conflict? tina: putin has shown zero interest in our offramp. he has been offered many. he was meant to have talks with president biden the week he invaded ukraine and told us he was not going to do it. so, on some level you're talking about how to make it easier for a bully, you know, an international bully, not to do something he seems intent on doing. i think maybe another question might be, what are countervailing forces that either might persuade him to change his mind or increase the domestic costs? and that is where the biggest mass protest ever in russia in 10 russian cities really matters. there is domestic pushback. people are getting arrested taking flowers to the ukrainian embassy in moscow.

jonathan: tina, wonderful to get your view. tina fordham there of avonhurst. the domestic pushback is building. i think we focused a lot on the oligarchs. it is the domestic pressure from the broader people, tom, that is going to start to resonate quickly. tom: let me just read this quickly. ian bremmer publishing moments ago, it is hard to see any circumstance where russia is not radically weaker both economically and geopolitically than before. unless he is forced out, the present path is not sustainable. that is from dr. bremmer. jonathan: sergei lavrov, the russian foreign minister, conducted an interview with state tv today. ukrainian and russian officials will hold talks today, expectations for most people are pretty low. lisa: especially because there has been offramp's offer to vladimir putin. he has not taken them. in ukraine wants one thing.

they want independence from russian interference. that is something russia has made clear it does not want to give. so where is the gift here? where is the place to bridge the gap? jonathan: if you are just tuning in, more companies isolating the russian economy. volkswagen and taser saying it is under strategic review. volkswagen stopping production in russia, halting exports to russia. that is not just some moral obligation. some of these companies, they cannot get the parts out of ukraine to the production facilities in russia to then export the goods anyway. that is how messy things have become. lisa: supply chains are tangible, and it is a tangible mass right now. we talked about this yesterday, let her's of credit. how do you insure yourself against the idea that perhaps some of these goods will be sanctioned between now and when they get delivered? jonathan: that is why people are -- are not stepping up to pick up russian crude either. you choose down on the s&p.

prude backing off from session highs. -- crude backing off from session highs. what a move we saw overnight. euro weaker again for a fourth straight session. on radio, tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there is a war going on, and the war is being conducted by one of the biggest oil powers in the world. >> energy is truly overbought here, they can remain overbought for weeks. >> your thinking about risk management right now. >> question, how to control inflation without doing too much damage? >> there is too much risk of the fed doing too little than the fed doing too much. announcer: this is announcer: --"bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: live, worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. futures down .2%. tom, russia increasingly isolated. tom: we see that in the corporate announcements this morning, but also isolated in terms of markets. markets change behavior, and