>> there is a war going on, and the war is being conducted by one of the biggest oil powers in the world. >> energy is truly overbought here, they can remain overbought for weeks. >> your thinking about risk management right now. >> question, how to control inflation without doing too much damage? >> there is too much risk of the fed doing too little than the fed doing too much. announcer: this is announcer: --"bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: live, worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. futures down .2%. tom, russia increasingly isolated. tom: we see that in the corporate announcements this morning, but also isolated in terms of markets. markets change behavior, and it

is not just commodities. every commodity is up, jon. i get that. i noticed weed is extremely important to me, but it is more than that. they become isolated in terms of currency. jonathan: there is a big index story in the mix. ms cutting russian equities. the stock market is not even open, tom. tom: most of these percentages are small. liz and sanders out with a new chart. treasury holdings. tangible and critical in this fight. jonathan: lisa, these are the equity indexes. to find out what happens on the debt side as well. lisa: what does that mean for investors who are trying to track indexes? because they cannot sell these assets. what did they do with this debt? it has a tangible effect on all of the arrangements and how people try to offset the lack of liquidity and russian assets

with their liquidity and others. jonathan: look at this quote from sydney. we cannot sell our stocks. this would just deteriorate things further for investors. and we start getting things open in russia again? you have all of these for sales, people trying to liquidate assets. the door is shut. lisa: that is why you see russian depositary companies with depositary accounts in the united kingdom, russian shares, taking 90% over two weeks. tom: the history of this is you write those equities down to zero. that will take time. jonathan: does that apply to chelsea? tom: there is like 18 people that want to buy it, including an american. jon, i'm surprised, not to make light of it, but i'm surprised pharaoh is not bidding.

jonathan: if i had the money, the number one thing our be thinking about right now is, can we close the sale? if i hand over the money do i get the asset? tom: that is part of it. let's assume it comes to a good outcome for support, etc. what does it mean for these oligarchs? the less visible ones as well. jonathan: what is visible is an equity market down a little bed and a crude market overnight was just on a one-way road toward $120 on brent. and we backed away. wti right now, $112. we are positive, but off the highs. yield to 185, and there it is again, euro-dollar, -.3. lisa: the strongest dollar we have seen going back to june of last year. today what we are looking for is an offramp to this conflict there are possible talks between

russia and ukraine in belarus. we are looking for some sense of who might negotiate here. not a lot of optimism coming around this. the same time there is a call at 9:00 a.m. with the leaders of a lot of allied nations to try to figure out how to proceed. 10:00 a.m., chair powell, day two of his testimony on capitol hill. at a time when people are looking for a soft landing and having a hard time finding it. that gap between two and 10 year yields narrowing to the lowest going back to march of 2020 as people take a look at the effects of this oil shock. and frankly, broader commodity shock. today we get a slew of u.s. economic data. how do we deal with a shock like this when we have such a low unemployment rate? we have a tight labor market and there seems to be a lot of momentum. jonathan: speaking of central banks, we were hoping to catch up with the ukrainian central

bank this morning. this is the reality of war, tom. the central bank delaying that rate decision. i have no indication of when we might get it. tom: we will have to see. there are many other topics to talk about as well. it certainly seems the central banks are in some organized manner -- and as we saw a headline two or three days ago -- all looking toward the central bank of central banks, switzerland, the bank of international settlements. jonathan: you will hear from chairman powell again later today. team coverage starts now with maria tadeo and brussels and jack fitzpatrick in d.c. jack, the story has changed over the weekend and through this week. there is no i push building in washington to and the import of russian crude. can you run us through how quickly that is building right now? jack: it is building very quickly. i was asked about this about 24 hours ago and i describe it as pretty quiet. it had been mentioned by senator joe manchin and a number of republicans over the course of

the last 24 hours. i was surprised we even saw ed markey on the progressive end of the spectrum bring this up. there are disagreements on how you view the direction of climate change policy and all of that, but there is quite a bit of agreement that there should be more sanctions in some way focused on the energy sector. there is not a bill and legislative path for them to very clearly force the president's hand right now. that could happen, but it has become loud enough so that it could potentially affect the president's thinking, even if congress does not actually force his hand. tom: jack fitzpatrick published moments ago, aaa unleaded, $3.62 , to $3.73. is the price of a gallon of gas getting up front of the politicians or can they keep up? jack: i can tell you there is

some nervousness about that. i don't know about their ability to keep up. the president knows there is a risk in adding these energy sanctions that he touched on the little bit in the state of the union. right now whether you are one of the lawmakers pushing for increased production of oil and gas in the u.s. or you are viewing this as a reason to look to renewables as an alternative, high gas prices lately have not pushed enough to get the lawmakers to drop this. really the focus on russia sanctions has, at least to some extent, outweighed the concerns the president has outlined. lisa: maria, a lot of people are looking at additional steps beyond sanctions. there are a lot of questions about the efficacy of them. including no-fly zones. this has been a controversial

point, because people are worried that to say no-fly zone over ukraine means direct confrontation with russia. what is the latest thinking on non-sanctions-related approaches? maria: if you have a plane that has to enforce a no go area in ukraine, it means there is a possibility in which two plans, one that is nato and another that is russia, they get into a confrontation. if there is a casualty you could see how this conflict could take a much bigger dimension going forward. we know right now it is a very difficult battle for ukraine in the skies. they have set for days now we need to bring this fight to the ground. if we do that ukraine will be in a much better position to defend itself, because russia will look -- will run into logistical problems. they will have issues with supplies. this is very dangerous, and this is what i hear from one of my european sources that say there could be an accident, could lead

to something much bigger. when it comes to sanctions it is making deals -- were still making deals is important. : will put this to a debate. we want to see a full ban on energy. i would rather use colton blood money coming from russian energy. jonathan: maria, wonderful as always. a -- maria tadeo and jack fitzpatrick. the u.s. will consider all options on russian energy sanctions. let's go through the data. you have the symbolism, then you have the substance. in america there is an effort building two russian crude imports. i think the substance is important. the team here put together the numbers. russian crude imports into the united states, tiny. about 3% of the total in 2021. bear that in mind. where this in mind as well. given what we are, the refiners who do not want to touch the

stuff, politically the door is open for the u.s. to make a call that is technically already happening. the imports of russian crude into america, tiny as a percentage of the total imports into america. on top of that the refiners are not touching it. the issue a lot of people in this crude market would have, tom, if that decision was made by the u.s., it would wonder more if that decision would be followed by the europeans. tom: that would be the path, jon. i'm going back to the great discussion we had yesterday on letters of credit, which is basically the ancient trust in the system. trust is being broken right now, and in these commercial transactions, when you see an end to trust where we reaffirm something as simple and ancient as letters of credit? jonathan: they do not have the clarity to make the transactions at the moment. lisa: that is the reason why you are seeing bands -- bans.

alcoa, saying they cannot do business with russia the way they have. russia supplies about 10% of u.s. aluminum. biden says he did not include this in sanctions, here we are again seeing the restrictions self-imposed. jonathan: you just assume we are going to get a stepup in sanctions. you start to think about what is left for america, this is it, really, isn't it? lisa: what will that do, though? if this has not worked in the market is responding as if he sanctions have been implement it? jonathan: yields lower, two basis points. crude higher to 1 -- to $112. brent really close to $120 overnight. , heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: keeping you up-to-date with the first word, i'm ritika

gupta. the war in ukraine has ended its second week. russian forces pressed ahead with their offensive. they fired missiles at the capital and stepped up their campaign to take the coastal south. more than a million refugees have to neighboring companies -- countries. second round of talks is set to take place today. customs officials seized a giant yacht owned by rosneft ceo igor sechin as part of sanctions against russia. according to french authorities the yacht was docked and prepared for an urgent departure. the price of oil sort to its highest level since 2008. and rapid wage growth in the u.s. is not going anywhere soon. the jobs report friday. hourly earnings rose another .5% last month.

that will push the year-over-year gain to 5.8%. goldman sachs expects wages to rise at 5% or more for the rest of the year. the congressional committee investigating the attack on the capital now claims to have evidence that former president trump may have committed a crime. that is according to a filing in federal court. the panel says that emails from trump advisor jon easton may contain evidence of obstruction of an official proceeding. he has been sued to block that she has sued to block the release. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> president putin may have assumed that the united states and our allies were bluffing when we warned of massive consequences. but, as president biden likes to say, big nations cannot bluff. the united states does not bluff, and president putin has gravely miscalculated. jonathan: president putin has gravely miscalculated. words of antony blinken. from new york, with futures down, we recover, we are off the lows on the nasdaq. we are about -- we are down

about .2% there. tom, the year-to-date column on the bloomberg, wti up 49.45%. brent up 47.43%. tom: these are standard deviations, which is a lot of what the pros use. jon, even right now the quite standard deviations are 2.5. i don't see four and five yet, but given the news you may see what i call medical standard deviations, where you get some real catharsis, some real emotion. jonathan: also this is the second shock. we had it last year. there was a massive rally in commodities. have just added to it in a big way. tom: i think we have had a great conversationalist. some of the people helping us out or going to drive that forward here this morning as well. right now on the complexities, the risk in fixed income, marty,

and now parametric portfolios, nisha patel joins us this morning. the fixed income market is far more complex than just quoting yield. given a war and giving these shocks, given the challenges we are seeing in flows, how do you risk manage fixed income right now? nisha: yeah, look, the good news as you mention is that yields are finally higher, right? particularly at the short end. this is something fixed income investors have been waiting for. we have seen massive outflows in the fixed income space. obviously as we have seen a massive upside in the stock market over the past year i'm a post-pandemic and the recovery of the economy. the good news is yields are up. what gets tough navigating the risk is on the duration side. credit-wise fundamentals are solid. duration is, right now with the

inflation figures, with the fed tightening policy taking place in a matter of two weeks, do they tighten enough, are they on target? that gets to be very difficult to kind of gauge. so short duration products are a space we see a lot of opportunity in. we like loans, particularly with high yields. taking credit risk here, instead of taking duration risk. tom: i want to translate this, because you are so qualified. there is full faith and credit, folks, which is basically sovereign jargon. then there is so-called credit, which is the corporate world and other things esoteric like that. nisha can you gauge in any sense the true credit of some of these companies as they deal with this war? nisha: i think, look, there is still more analysis that will have to be done. the longer that the conflict

stays in place -- and now we are into the second week -- obviously there is more risk of implications to the bottom line of some of these companies. the reality, though, is that many of these companies have come in flush with cash. as we all know. in the u.s. we are a little bit on an island from an economy standpoint, and i truly feel that we have not seen a full recovery take place, right? finally people are returning to the office. demand has been absolutely astounding, and i think that continues. mask mandates are being lifted. i think the growth trajectory here is still very positive, which obviously is going to help companies. again, as we all know, the very big question mark here is the impact of the conflict. the longer this is stays in place, the longer-term implication this might have. the fed is in a very tough place

here, given all of the inflation figures, given unemployment. if you take a look at previous tightening cycles and we were in terms of unemployment and inflation going back to 1994, or at lower unemployment than any of those tightening cycles. wage inflation is at least two to three times higher than at the start of any of those cycles, as is cti. if we see next week on the inflation number, this puts on a lot more pressure on the fed. so, you know, i think, again, at minimum you are looking at a 25 basis point hike for the rest of the year. a total rate hike over the next eight to 12 month period on the lower end of what all previous tightening cycles have done. when wage inflation is lower, when unemployment figures were actually higher. it is going to be a very tricky situation of navigating and

eating inflation from a fed standpoint, it obviously building in some flexibility should they need it. jonathan: always awesome and great to catch up with you. nisha patel thereof parametric. just getting some headlines out of ukraine. an advisor to the president saying those talks are going to start in the next few hours. those talks with russia will begin in the next few hours. the ukrainian delegation on its way for talks with russia. tom: it is sad, to be honest, that the bloomberg terminal and all of the data does not move on that headline. you would think in normal times you would see some constructive price moves here, but again, it is just turning here as we wait for more news. jonathan: and not the first time we have had talks. maria is doing a great job of going through this forest. the objectives, going down the line. having anything agreed-upon. we all hope they well, that is why expectations are so low. tom: one of the reasons there is a real earth here, we always

attribute and there is limited attribution on the cities of ukraine, and particularly down to the black sea. the news flow in terms of the military operations is very sketchy. jonathan: this one from bloomberg opinion. i will read it. opec prides itself to be about business and not politics. some one really needs to explain to me how yesterday oil ministers reviewed, analyzed, and debated on of the most difficult supply demand outlooks and decades in just 13 minutes. lisa: right now how do you strip the business from the politics? is there a divide right now when you take a look at what is happening and the reasons for some of the business moves are highly political? wrinkly this is a mess that goes beyond any business decision, that goes to something more fundamentally human. jonathan: he concluded by saying unless politics are driving the decisions. that is it. lisa: very subtle there. jonathan: bloomberg opinion, so clearly has an opinion.

tom: i don't have an opinion. jonathan: but you going to share? usually do. futurist unchanged on the s&p. crude backing away from session highs. wti up 1.8%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: futures basically unchanged. on the nasdaq 100, nasdaq down .2%. in the bond market, all over the place. on tuesday session, we were in 1.2 fives after being in 1.6 zero on friday. let's get to the bond market. build out the front end on the back of the chair powell testimony yesterday. what we do the same today? 1.85 25, down to basis points. i want to talk about the dynamic deutsche bank has picked up because it is really important for the european ecb. as we draw our attention toward the federal reserve, let's come back to the ecb. the eurodollar, negative for four straight days.

brent crude positive for four straight days. the inverse correlation between the two, toxic for the ecb and inflationary spiral in the words of deutsche bank, what on earth can they do about it? tom: and you cross correlate this to other euro pairs like euro's west euro-yen, etc.. i don't want to make a production, other than the chart is beyond ugly. jon: lisa, do they have to step in? and how do they step in? lisa: how much is this drawl boning the euro to strength by saying we are still thinking about rate hikes this year. right now, if the u.s. is an island, so too is the dollar. jon: brent 1.5 -- 115. we were this far away from 120. that is across asset price action. let's say good morning to kriti gupta. >> let's talk about the oil move because you are seeing brent crude prices climbing higher and

higher, no relief when it comes to the oil market. that is having an effect into the stock market, specifically names concentrated in u.s. production and u.s. revenue. devon energy up .9%. occidental is another one, 80% of the revenue coming from the u.s. up 1.4 percent. chevron does have the russian exposure, importing 4 million barrels to the california refineries as of 2021. nevertheless, instead of being under pressure like so many russia-exposed stocks, they are up .8%. it is not just because of an oil company, it is because of a buyback, bumping that up, taking advantage of profits. let's talk about tech names, the other side of the stock spectrum aside from oil. if you are seeing it, up 2%. this is a software company that has a lot of backing in that region -- a lot of staff in that region. 18,000 in russia and belarus. nevertheless, shares of 2% after a catastrophic drop for this

company. seeing a little cat/mouse. the question is can they keep up the momentum they have? snowflake getting punished here, by as much as 22% down. they slowed their guidance, saying the triple digit percentage pace that has been fueling the stock will slow down so do not count on it. intel getting cut to underweight over at morgan stanley, citing a lack of catalyst. tom: thank you. for those of you younger, it is important to understand, in times of crisis some years ago, you leaned over the desk and you read every line of edward yard denny. i have the clearest member of 1991 when he wrote an important essay, the collapse of communism is bullish. the forces of darkness have not

been vanquished entirely but do not underestimate the forces of light. the big picture is very bright. things have changed and we welcome the doctor this morning. what can you write this morning of the people of ukraine in this new iron curtain? >> i think you are absolutely right, this is many ways the second cold war. the first one ended in 1989, the berlin wall came tumbling down, and there was a lot of concerns back then that it would lead to higher inflation, higher interest rates, figuring all of those folks suddenly were free would want commodities, would want to borrow money. instead, we had a tremendous amount of global competition that lowered inflation and bond yields an interest rates came down. the flipside of that unfortunate right now is this is in fact cold war two. i don't know if the word if it is relevant here. given this is cold war two,

globalization certainly is at risk and that means the inflationary forces we have seen are getting another boost here from very challenging geopolitical times. tom: in soft sanctions, the idea of restricting funds that harm russian and associated russian balance sheets, do you see any evidence that strategy can work? >> i do actually. i think the sanctions are severe enough and having an impact immediately as you watch the currencies carefully. i know that. the collapse of the ruble is extremely important as a sign of how much pain the russian economy is getting inflicted. that means we have also seen interest rates soar, inflation will soar, and they basically have been cut off from the rest of the world. russia has been made a pariah nation in terms of exports and imports, maybe with the

exception of oil but that also is not necessarily the case as we see by slowing oil prices. clearly russia's economic relationship to the rest of the world has been cut off significantly. jon: that's the rest of the world i want to talk about. there is a consensus forming in the commodity market that the only way to balance crude is through demand structure. that is the consensus in the oil market. what would your view be on the equity market? if destruction is the way forward, what does that mean for earnings estimates in the year ahead? dr. yardeni: it is hard to deal with this geopolitical crisis with out any -- without any inc. model or thesis of where this is going. i think this consensus view in equity market is this too shall pass. the pain on both sides is so great that there will be some sort of negotiated deal, and as you pointed out, they are meeting today for the second day . i think it is way premature to

conclude this will be a negotiated deal, but i thing there will be and i think the markets consensus is right on that. that does not necessarily mean suddenly all of these sanctions will disappear. they won't. i think, for the stock market, and a best case scenario right now, given what i know, it takes us from what looks like an inflationary boom for the past half year to something more like stagflation, slower growth and more inflation. beyond that, there is a deja vu here with the 1970's. as we now, for all the talk about the tools they have in their tool kids, to bring inflation down, they only -- the only when i know is raising interest rates to a level that causes a recession. but this will not do that. i think we will live with higher inflation and interest rates that really are not going to clobber the economy into a recession anytime soon with this fed, and i think the market will figure out who wins and loses in

that kind of environment. lisa: is stagflation air type of environment still with the allowance of some growth, does the bond market, given this backdrop, make sense to you, given the fact that it should probably allow longer-term inflation to go much higher? dr. yardeni: the bond market has not made any sense to me for over a year now. at the beginning of last year, i thought we would be a 2% by the end of last year. we seem to be heading in the right direction. we have 1.7% in march but then came back down and hovered around 1.5. with inflation running five to seven ash 5% to 7% depending on the inflation number you look at, the bond yield is ridiculously low. we should be at least 2% if not 2.5%. in the old days, it would be higher but some things have changed here. go ahead. lisa: i was listening to jay powell yesterday in his testimony and he was saying he thinks a soft landing is quite likely and this is actually more

common than a lot of people have thought in the past. is that true? dr. yardeni: the 1970's were a long time ago and the only analogy i can come up with between what we are seeing now and history, recent history, is the 1970's. and a lot of things, there's a combination of bad luck and bad policymaking and that certainly seems to describe the current environment, bad luck in policymaking and on top of that geopolitics. even back in the 1970's, geopolitics played a role because we had two energy shocks that were very inflationary. i'm concerned about a wage spiral. my worry is we get through this horrible situation and productivity makes a huge comeback whereas in the 1970's, productivity collapsed. jon: we will share that hope. ed yardeni.

german pollen capitol hill, a hard landing. i think we can all agree on this, the landing sure it -- landing strip, the runway has gotten narrower and could get more in the months ahead. lisa: i get your point and you are not wrong. you can not come out and say gloom and doom. he has to project some sort of confidence and cannot talk that negatively. if you were to acknowledge how perilous it has become, maybe he would have more credibility in his understanding of the situation. i say that at a time where other people are saying are you kidding me and even his own members on the federal reserve says this policy is wrongfooted or we need to go faster and he needs to engage with that more. jon: fed comments can become self fulfilling. i remember first time into central banks and someone said to me when you become a central banker you have to become very good at lying. tom: i agree with that.

frankly i think they are lying less today than they were a number of years ago with the huge volume of communication that we see. i would suggest before this war, before the shock of putin, they were making it up as they go. it is not the textbooks. we talk about nmt and all of that and even more so with the war, they are making it up by the day and mr. powell will make it up the best he can. jon: the rocks got harder. this between a rock and a hard place. the nasdaq down, yields at a single basis point, and crude higher by 2.6%. that is the price action across assets today. your dollar, the strongest since 2020. a97 handle on the dollar index, approaching 98. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with

news from around the world, president putin is being -- in line at the same time, the u.s. is signaling it does not want the crisis to spiral out of control with provocative ads. the missile test is scheduled for this weekend the administration refrain from discussing regime change in moscow. the price of wheat is continuing its meteoric rise, past $11 a bushel to the highest level since 2008. prices are up 50% in the last month. russia's invasion of ukraine brought shipment from one of the world's biggest growing areas to a virtual standstill. full swag and and ikea are joining the growing number of businesses that will not do business with russia. bw is halting the production of vehicles there. it also will not export cars to russia anymore. meanwhile, ikea is causing its operations in russia and belarus. all the furnishings say the move

will affect 15,000 employees. a new study underscores the essential danger of lifting pandemics to quickly, japanese scientists say the omicron strain is at least 40% more lethal than seasonal flu. omicron fatality rate is much lower than the fatality rate seen earlier in the outbreak. that could reflect the benefits of the vaccination. in japan, greg kelly was found guilty of helping a company underreport his income. they were arrested the same day in november 2018. they made the spectacular escape from japan in a private jet. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta and this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika gupta and this is bloomberg. ♪

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pres. biden: nothing is off the table. jon: the president departing the white house. nothing is off the table in the last one he for hours when asked if considering banning russian crude in parts. futures down .1%, on the nasdaq, round down .3%. a move lower, down acing a basis point, and crude is 1.3138. brent crude get your attention overnight doesn't it? close to 120. tom, brent crude up 2.5%. tom: and in all of our reporting, it is not just oil, it is a complex story. joining us now, thrilled to bring you fully manager and head of commodities at dws with years of experience on the up, the down, and the very up, up, up on commodities. these are not financial instruments. what is the media saying about

the fact that aluminum or wheat has huge fixed costs in production. what are we missing that these are not the usual liquid instruments we are used to? darwei: that is wonderful question. we do see significant price impacts across all commodities. however, there is also a human element to the price. we tend to forget as market prediction aries that we focus on price and return, but aluminum is used for industrial uses in many countries depend on aluminum to help keep the factories going and help keep workers employed. which is even bigger issue. it directly links to food security. but ukraine and russia are large exporters of wheat, and particular to areas like northern africa, central asia, middle east. for these countries, they will experience sharp price

inflation. should the conflict escalate from here, and interrupt the process for weeds, we might see even worse such as food shortage that could lead to significant [indiscernible] tom: this leads to the micro economics of the moment, how do you define as a portfolio manager of great success, demand destruction? darwei: it comes in a couple different ways. one is if the price gets high enough, for example the gasoline price gets high enough, people may choose to drive less, travel less, to save money so they can afford other goods. so there's one way to see that. it is more impact on lower growth rate assumption rather than completely replaced, but this is a second type of destruction coming in the fact that people could find alternatives energy from gasoline based cars to

electrical cars. u.s. in particular, that will have a big impact on energy price. jon: a lot of people are long right now and the price shift we have seen, when we think about what a hedge it is, not what it was a month or so ago. if we got a headline that basically said we had a cease fire, i'm wondering when you look across your portfolio how you have hedged that. look on of instruments you look to, what trades you look on -- what trades you got on. darwei: outside of oil, what are other commodities that have more long-term impact given the current environment? we think base metal, which is currently behind the other commodities in terms of the price elevation. we think that is a great way to hedge the portfolio, because we do anticipate trying to improve the credit for the economy, and that will help with demand on base metal regardless of performance.

the second thing we are doing in the portfolio is think about having exposure fund. let me use a more plain language, the later delivery of oil, that particular price is not moving i'm nearly as much as the prompt, the near delivery of oil. we think at some point the two crisis will out and that is why we are thinking hard about shifting some of our exposure. lisa: we have been talking about whether sanctions will matter for commodities markets. they have already priced in a lot of self imposed sanctions by a lot of commodity producers and importers. what is your sense of how much further prices could climb if the sanctions are written in name without the -- for oil and metals. -- metals? darwei: for oil, brent for example, our target is $130 if

there is no change to current level of conflict. if there is direct impact on delivery, ability to deliver oil, we can easily see $150 or more for oil price because russia accounts for a very large part of the global supply. of the 11 million they produced, 7 million comes out of the country. that is to be interrupted and we could see the impact. there is no easy solution to replace it. for the other commodities, for wheat in particular, that is a concern because if we see disruption for russia to deliver -- they're one of the biggest producers and exporter, and ukraine is already experiencing humanitarian concerns, so we don't know if ukraine will have the same ability to produce wheat and corn at the same level in the past. so there is no easy solution for that. jon: that last point will be such a big deal for global politics, particularly in northern africa. darwei kung of dws, think you

for taking us inside of the portfolio. lisa, i know you picked up on the policy of this, not just the economics. food exports, the agis, this is a huge issue -- ags. thi is a huge issue. ,-- lisa: this exact price urge is what led to the arab spring protests years ago. about a decade ago, people wondering what is civil going to be like if you start to get this type of food inflation jon:. talks continue. -- inflation. jon: talks continue. the president of ukraine, those talks will start in the next few hours between ukraine and russia. we also understand president putin had another call with president macron of france and we understand they had an open opinion exchange on ukraine. tom: from interfax and i'm not sure what to make from that. i think the news flow is really constrained right now. i said this yesterday, social

media has radically changed in the last 48 to even 72 hours. there is so much less accurate, on the spot video anecdote, so much of it is garbage. you have to be careful out there with the news. jon: the reality too is raising the pressure in a big way on the administration, on governments around europe. tom: i agree. we don't know. do we know where we will be friday? where we will be monday morning in terms of pressures on corporations? i do not believe we do. jon: you saw the numbers i just came from darwei. we came close to $120 on brent overnight. lisa: as a base case if nothing changes. what happens if they do tighten up? if you could get to $150 and beyond, how do you game that out? jon: we will have it game it out in the market and we will catch up with the -- no drum on the s&p 500.

on the nasdaq, down 2% -- down .2%. yields in just a basis point. moving on crude, 113.70. prudent telling russia it will fulfill its goals in russia. we will talk about those goals in a moment. ♪ . ♪

>> tons of crosscurrents are impacting the markets -- >> inflation is the problem and that is what we are hitting -- >> we will get coordinated intervention, even in times like this. >> there are regions of the world that are in defense mode. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. bloomberg surveillance. markets on the move off of a war

in ukraine. all eyes o