>> tons of crosscurrents are impacting the markets -- >> inflation is the problem and that is what we are hitting -- >> we will get coordinated intervention, even in times like this. >> there are regions of the world that are in defense mode. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. bloomberg surveillance. markets on the move off of a war

in ukraine. all eyes on oil, almost 120 dollars, down to a quiet $114 and two dollar advance. jon: and all the talks on ukraine and present -- talks on ukraine and president putin saying russia is ready to fulfill its goals. he was clear about the goals. demilitarization and a change of leadership. tom: i see the quiet tone. i will look at the black sea to see what happens. no news there. to me, the real news wrapped around mr. powell's statements is the sanctions that as you say, soft sanctions, by the minute. jon: the change over the weekend is reverberating. company after company isolating russia, seeing that continuously, headline after headline, thinking about and conducting a strategic review. what has changed for me in the last couple days is momentum in america, a push to involve

energy. we were told repeatedly there would be a carveout. the pressure building to do something on energy over the last couple days. tom: lisa abramowicz, tom malone reporting moments ago by forbes that another oligarch's super yacht was seized. it is a story from france earlier this morning, now up to germany. the oligarchs under threat. lisa: we are witnessing something unprecedented. a nuclear superpower, at least used to be, now the eighth biggest economy in the world, trying to invade a nation and how do you deal with it without causing world war iii? it is a financial warfare. does it work and how do you end up with some resolution at a time when both sides seem to be dug in? tom: i will just start with oil rounded up to $117. you wonder if we get to $120 in this hour. jonathon: it can close overnight on brent.

$116 on the year, up almost 50 on brent. wti is up more than 3%, crude higher, yields lower by two basis point at $185. we keep talking about this, euro-dollar breaking down again, four straight days higher for crude, four straight days negative for the euro. tom: mark mccormick, td securities, had a lengthy note this morning and he goes and makes clear that euro is not cheap or oversold. there is room to move to weaker euro. jonathan: i will see you march 10. we see a cpi report in the morning in america. there are only a few estimates in the survey but it is close to 8%. the same day that morning, we get a news conference with president lagarde. moments after the cpi print, lagarde starts to speak. get your head around what that could look like, an ecb that will sit back, let inflation lift in europe and a federal

reserve that might have to step in because inflation is too high. what does euro-dollar look like then? tom: this is not the fed, this is separate. she needs to address our constituencies, including the immediate country's to war in ukraine. including poland. her politics is radically different than chairman powell's . jonathan: let's price into -- that will price into crude into the forecast. we just had a guest from dw from moments ago that said base case $130 and of sanctions tighten, i will see you at $150. so we had energy aspects yesterday and you said the only way to stabilize the market, this echo, the only way to stabilize the market for them is demand destruction. that is a commodity view at the moment. tom: we will continue to give those headlines on radio and tv. the head of microstrategy joins us now, decades of experience. lee ferridge, what are you writing. within this mix of higher

commodities, a war and shock to central bankers. what are you writing this morning? lee: really it is about the risk of -- i mean we term it a policy mistake but it is not really a mistake. it is about the central banks now in an impossible position. normally when you get a geopolitical spike in commodity prices like this, the central bank will look through it because oil going up, commodity prices going up lower growth in the future. they are attacks on the consumer. stalling at 2% inflation, you can look through that and say we are looking at headline and we do not need to focus on that. we can look through and not time policy. when it starts to hit seven points i've -- 7.5 percent inflation rate, they are worried about inflation expectation, worried about wages, and the fact is you have to act, even if you know in the future this will lead to lower growth. that goes across the world, goes in the u.s., the lower growth is

more a risk in the short-term in the eurozone but in the u.s., it is real for 2023 and 2024 but the fed have no choice. jonathan: crude is short of $170 on brent. commodities, push that through equities for me. what does the stock market look like? the outlook for growth and earnings with crude rallying this hard. lee: it is not positive, is it? it is hard to spin that. we saw the big bounce yesterday. buy on dips has been a fantastic strategy since the financial crisis. you have had that financial policy and fed put. they do not have that now. you have to focus on inflation most of all. we saw it yesterday, and i would be very wary here. there's a long way to play out here. there is so much uncertainty and volatility but the fact is the outlook is based on the view that the central banks have to act. even if they know it lowers growth in the future, how could

that be spun into positive? jonathan:jonathan: i'm waiting for this inflection point and i wonder if you have info on this. the moment where yields pickup, the banks selloff and you know where i'm going with this because you get to a moment were some point people look at high yields and say the fed will tighten into this. commodities keep rallying but i do not want to warn energy or banks because we are going one way, down. are we close to that? lee: i think we are not yet. as i say, we are very volatile and moving day today here. we cannot be that far away from it and if the sanctions do increase, which it does to seem to have momentum for that, if they include energy, then we cannot be far away from that point. i think that is a fair assessment. the buy on dips have served you well and i would be wary to do that at the moment. it would not be a strategy i would employ. lisa: what is the best haven

trade right now? lee: really the havens you have, you have the dollar you are mentioned, you talk about euro-dollar before and this is the euro-dollar. even against the yen, it acts no longer as a safe haven. it is the dollar, it is treasuries, and it is gold. those are your three ultimate safe havens. those are the places you want to be right now. for me, it -- you cannot really look beyond those three. that's where you want to be. lisa: the dollar makes a lot of sense angled makes a lot of sense. treasuries, i'm struggling there, because if you look at where inflation is an the idea the dollar is strong because of likely a tightening cycle from the federal reserve, how does that play out into owning duration? lee: because you think about that policy mistakes, so what you do is you get any inverted curve. the curve is extremely flat now. if this plays out in the worst case scenario oil continues to rise and we had $150, you will

get any inverted curve. there might be short-term pain but compared to what you will get elsewhere in the market, it is still duration because the market is going to price recession in 2023 and 2024 if we get to that level. that is why you go for duration and look at that curve to invert. jonathan: lee, great to catch up. as always, lee ferridge of state street. robert buckland upgrading tack and the u.s. as well. coming into this year, it was not about tech. it was all about cyclicals. lisa: this also plays to the idea treasuries are a haven even amid this inflation fear. this is a time when it's might be more immune to high oil prices that travel companies for example might be. or even consumer companies depend on shipping and supplies. jonathan: a couple headlines from vladimir putin, touting mccrone, russia will fulfill its goals in ukraine.

mccrone warning this coming, saying winning talks from ukraine will not work. this is on a day where there are talks between russia and a delegation from ukraine. tom: it's interesting to see and for our conversation with tina earlier, how far west your goal? -- his goal? i think this is a mystery. is it all of ukraine up to the polish border? i need to be careful here. from reuters, we have a ship sunk in the port or near the port of odessa. there is confusion. we want to identify the confusion. the reuters report says it was possibly struck by a mine or the ship struck a mine, or there are the usual noises on twitter that it was some form of attack. i will go with a mine report right now as reported by reuters. jonathan: we have a minute so let's step away from the headline and help us understand the tension in the black sea at the moment, just what is taking place in odessa to the west of

the country, the southwest, and more to the east toward russia. tom: farther down to the west is romania where there is a massive nato presence, no doubt as the admiral's tribune us says, it will grow. moving up to odessa and the wonderful golden beach, you move along the southern part of ukraine, up to crimea and in 2014, crimea was taken. but then northeast of crimea is the horrific battles of mario poll reported in the last day. jonathan: tension in ukraine intensifies. the nasdaq unchanged, yields lower by two basis points and crude picking up close to a $115 handle on wti, up almost 14%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the word with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. there are develop in's on the military and diplomatic fronts of russia's invasion of ukraine.

the two sides are set for a round of talks. russian forces pressed ahead meanwhile with their offensive and fired rockets at the capital city and ramped up their campaign in the coastal south. customs officials seized a giant yacht owned by a russian ceo, part of european sections against russia. according to french authorities, the yacht was docked and prepared for an urgent departure. the price of oil soared to its highest level since 2008 where texas intermediate futures jumped 4% and approached $115 per barrel, all falling back, continuing to shun russian crude. rapid wage growth in the u.s. is not going anywhere soon. the jobs report out friday is forecast to show hourly earnings rose another .5%. that would push the euro to five point 8%. goldman sachs expects wages to rise at 5% or more for the rest of the year.

bloomberg learned the securities and exchange commission is scrutinizing creators of non-fungible tokens and the crypto exchanges where they trade. investigators are trying to determine if some of them have run afoul of the agency rules, focusing on whether certain ones are being used to raise money. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

>> we will bill ukraine, and i tell my staff and family -- rebuild ukraine, and i tell my staff and family, the images of buildings destroyed are horrifying, but it does not matter at the moment. it is lies of people that matter at the moment. jonathan: we agree with that. that was ukraine's to the u.n.. from new york, futures up .2%. on the nasdaq, unchanged. crude on the session and on the year, on the day come up by more than 3%, on wti, up. on brent, short of $170.

up a couple of months and days into 2022. yields lower by three basis points. euro-dollar is short of 1.11. the moving crew picked up a little bit after the headline from interfax. vladimir putin telling mccrone of france that russia is to fulfill its goals in ukraine. tom: absolutely. right now, harvey a bloss joining us now. -- javier bloss joining us now. what do they say on this war? >> one method riyadh is trying to send is they have condemned the invasion of ukraine. they voted in favor of the resolution at the united nations, but since the meeting yesterday, saudi arabia and

russia [indiscernible] in 30 minutes, they reveal the market they would do what they have done over the last few months. i think the current market with the fundamentals so upside down require more than 30 minutes of analysis. it's about situation for saudi arabia because [indiscernible] at least within the opec-plus group. lisa: how much is there any unspoken backdrop that much more concerning that they cannot increase production that much, even if they said they were going to? javier: opec-plus is a group that a struggling to increase production for sure. saudi arabia, the united arab emirates can increase production if they choose to. they are sitting on significant capacity, potentially more than 2 million borrowers a day from the two countries. they want to bring that capacity into the market and they can do that. the most they increase production, the lower the

capacity is and that is also creating tension on the market. the market is assuming we are not having any buffer. it is complicated, but what i was meaning yesterday at opec-plus was a statement, similar to what they have done in the past to the downside, that they are watching closely the markets. i would like to have seen some message from opec that they are ready to take action, needed to provide more oil into the market. jonathan: you have your finger on the pulse that other people have not. i have been taking credit for a phrase i got from you, south sanctioning. can you walk me through exactly what is happening with the russian crude being produced and how many people you speak to do not want to touch it? can you tell us why they do not want to touch it or what they are waiting for? is this something we can solve in days, weeks, or at all? javier: i think it will get worse because the images we see from ukraine are getting worse. we are seeing entire residential buildings demolished by shelling

by russia. i do not think that will change. some of the oil has been sold and loaded in boats. the oil market was in a lag. a lot of what is loaded on tankers today is sold. no one in the oil market really so the invasion happening. everyone thought they were to get negotiations. [indiscernible] those are gonna be barrels that need to be sold and loaded after the invasion has stopped. i think that is what people will be struggling with, those barrels, and we will start to see really the russian oil disappearing from the market. at the moment, a lot of the oil is being produced and sold and has been loaded in boats, so people that have longtime contracts. but it does not have a final buyer. i think that will get worse as the days continue. jonathan: joining us at a london, javier blas, thank you.

brent up around 3%. of uti the same move. tom: critically a move in the last hour as well. right now joining us, we welcome all of you one blue berg radio and bloomberg television worldwide and particularly on the continents of europe -- continent of europe. kyrylo evgenievich shevchenko joins us now. thank you for staying on the financial. what do you need as an institution, your economist -- you are economist, what do you need from the bank of international settlements and the major central bankers such as chairman powell? what that they need to do to assist your nation? >> thank you very much for inviting me. thank you very much for the globe for supporting ukraine against this russian aggression.

definitely today we are very happy that major advanced countries and also international financial organizations support us. also, we tried to do our best to impose functions to russia in order to increase the cost of this invasion on ukraine. coming back to your question regarding dif, so far, we tried to persuade the manager, the leaders of this organization, that in the current environment, russia cannot be allowed to be the member of this respected organization. in the situation with where -- with this military aggression and direct invasion to ukraine.

that is why we approach this organization with a request for membership of russia in the financial organization of the world. jonathan: are you aware of the imf and whether it is helping the russians understand the sanctions and work around the sanctions? are they seeking advice from them? what is the interpretation between the multilateral institutions and how they are working with russia day-to-day? sergiy: my understanding is at the current moment, there are active corporations between the financial organization and russian financial institution suspended. we hope that is only [indiscernible] we hope that in the current environment, membership of a

russian organization like central bank cannot be allowed. so all this in the best organization like central bank of russia to now they try to finance, to support their states, which we consider is now, so we do not think in the current moment, it is reasonable to have any operations or relations with russian authorities. jonathan: i'm just wondering, we see these numbers, huge numbers thrown around. have you got a read or done studies on how much you actually lead? do you have a number in mind of what you need now -- how much aid you need? do you have a number in mind of how much you need? sergiy: our estimates show on a

daily basis, our gdp is now only half of the normal gdp amount under the full conditions. so definitely, we put a huge strain on our public finances, on the central bank. he definitely need the support of the global community to keep our finances viable and support against russia. it is difficult now to account how many billions of dollars, how many probably hundreds of billions of dollars we would need after the war to to to to

to restore our economy. lisa: how do you even begin to do normal central banking in such an abnormal time? how do you even assess the economic damage and hold meetings at a time when things are so influx? sergiy: actually, that is already eight years from the start of the military conflict with the russian federation, and definitely we have some business continuing to play out in the case of direct military invasion. all the time, we consider such scenarios to be of low probability, but unfortunately, the probability is realized. nevertheless, we are supposed to more or less prepare for such scenario and continue to do our work in these conditions as much

as possible. tom: you wrote a paper in another time and place, two thousand 19, on monetary transmission. i want you -- 2019, on monetary transmission and i want you to tell what's ruble will do. when ruble weekends, will you assume russia bombs it self back to a barter economy? sergiy: you know, definitely monetary transmission described in my paper. so we do not want to play these games like the russian central bank does, and we do not think the policy right now is an effective instrument. so we just suspend it, our monetary policy, conducted under the inflation targeting regime.

we suspended to consider our policy rate. so now we are -- we manage our financial sector, our economy, economy, the monetary instruments. lisa: what you make of the financial warfare western nations have been waging to try to isolate russia? you think when we look back in history it will be considered a success? sergiy: the unique situation now days -- the unique situation is you hit the western world which you still function -- normal market conditions in the economic sense and also the financial.

also isolated from the western world. now this will be integrated in the global and financial world. frankly speaking i expect catastrophic consequences on the russian economy. jonathan: i want to finish on something important. we have gone through the stats on this program that russia and ukraine supply more than a quarter of the world's wheat exports and 80% of the sunflower oil cargoes. at some point the farmers need to get back out into the fields and get to work.

can you help us understand the amount of devastation we could see to those goods if those farmers cannot get back into the fields and work in the next several months? sergiy: that is a very important question for the global economy, for the viewers globally. ukraine and russia are very important suppliers of wheat, of corn, of oil, of sunflower oil to the global markets. i hope that this military invasion will be suspended very fast and our farmers will be able to have the normal agricultural year this year. otherwise i am afraid global

consequences could be very tough. jonathan: can you help people understand what that would look like if this was not dealt with quickly enough and this went into the summer? sergiy: i do not know. i'm not able to provide at the moment. we try to do our best to ensure the function of the payments. probably we will have to do such calculations in order to understand how the world will live without the supply of this foodstuff from ukraine. jonathan: let's hope it does not come to that. deputy governor, thank you so much. our thoughts are with the people of ukraine and you and your governor and the central bank. the deputy governor of the bank

of ukraine. thank you very much. a warning for the world, not just ukrainian economy. tom: real delicate answers given the stress is the deputy governor faces in ukraine. i thought it was extraordinary with your wonderful question at the end of the ark of the agricultural season which goes to the heart of the matter. jonathan: i imagine that would get a lot more attention. in a war economy, to move away from the policy rate. in the world they are in right now. tom: the world they are in right is a world where they will need assistance. the bank of international settlements is front and center. jonathan: jobless claims out moments ago in america. up about .2% on the s&p. spent a lot of time looking at crude. wti pulling back from session highs.

crude 1.1240. let's get to michael mckee. michael: let's catch up quickly on this. jay powell has a lot on his plate. you can imagine what it is like to be in the ukraine central bank. jobless claims 215,000. the economy still strong. the labor market still strong. that is down from a revised 233,000. that data some of the lower numbers as the seasonal distortions work their way out. the other number is the productivity revision to the fourth quarter. no change in total productivity, 6.6%. there is a big rise in unit labor cost, goes up from .3% to .9%. you can see the influence of a tight labor market and higher wages. good news for jay powell and bad news for jay powell. tom: i want to close the loop on

the important conversation we had with the deputy governor of the central bank of ukraine. what is the vis and what can they do? michael: it is basically the central bank for central banks and does a lot of the work behind the scenes to make sure the financial system around the world is working correctly. they can help by helping identify some of the money the russian central bank has, where it is keeping some of its reserves, and perhaps also help setting up the loan programs. the world bank and the imf have already moved towards major loans for ukraine. it will be a question of how quickly the money can get this first. the bis can help with that. jonathan: michael mckee, thank

you. payrolls tomorrow. the estimate as it stands, 415,000 your median estimate in the survey at bloomberg. tom: a quick brief from nila richardson. i say automatic data processing because i'm a fossil. we have u.s. economic data. does it signal a boy it economy or are we truly in some form of slow down? nela: we are going to slow down from last year. we are a healthy economy. i think we continue to grow robustly, but we are not economy that has the absence of a high degree of federal spending and monetary easing that will fade away. healthy economy and those jobless claims are another good sign. how far we have, and the labor market but we have seen slowing growth in the real issue is

inflation. lisa: inflation only getting hotter as we see commodities surging by one measure back to the 1970's. how much you expect wages to respond to the upside versus people coming back into the labor market in order to get paychecks in response to this inflation? nela: we saw inflation accelerated in the fourth quarter. the interesting thing is in terms of inflation rising for wages, what is interesting is through most of the recovery in the low sector that is in the high wage increases. those people making lower wages, those wages are increasing faster. now we are seeing a flip in our data. we are seeing those industries correlated with high-paying job, professional business services really accelerate.

that might not only show wage inflation but wage disparity between people who figure with inflation better and people who are still struggling. getting people back into the labor force at a time when very high price levels is important. as the fed looks to contain inflation, it is important the jobs recovery continues because it is not quite complete. lisa: how do you begin to game out the ramifications of $130 a barrel oil, $150 barrel oil as we talk about that on this bifurcated recovery of the haves and the have-nots? nela: let's just have that were most of main street sees the higher oil prices is at the gas pump. transportation cost accelerate, housing costs have accelerated, childcare positive been hide

through the pandemic. it is a material concern for main street families and for working families. we know energy prices spillover into other goods. if you add on accelerated energy prices to what is already supply shortages, and the break interview you just did 40 to the effect of energy and agriculture , you see that for people still trying to work their way out of the pandemic economically, headline inflation is a big concern. tom: if inflation is entrenched, do you look at the topline inflation? do all the fancy economists like you, to those fancy inflation measurements drift away, or do they become more important? nela: you look at the consumer. the consumers is looking at headline inflation. the consumer is going to the grocery store.

the consumer expectations are going to feed and patient over the long-term. the good news is you are seeing high inflation expectations. three to five years out they start to decline. that is the trend we want to keep. i think going to the grocery store and watching the consumer at the gas pump and at the grocery store has its place, particular in this environment. jonathan: it is getting expensive. nela richardson of adp. crew rolling over, now positive just .6% on brent. we came very close to one -- to $120 on brent crude. the german economy minister saint we would impose an embargo on imports of russian energy. the embargo would threaten social peace in germany. the sign of a split that might

emerge. the direction of travel for the united states to get behind crude import restrictions for russia. europe and germany making a point to say we wouldn't -- we would oppose a barco -- we would oppose an embargo of imports. tom: i would go to the soft sanction the microlevel we are observing. you can see it with all of the headlines we have. i want to mention a piercing note, this is out moments ago. he does not mean this in a snarky way, he says throw the data out the window given what we are living right now. jonathan: this is changed a lot. just to go through that headline, the rally in crude fades, almost unchanged. wti up .8%. the headline, the german economy minister say we would impose an

embargo on russian energy, the embargo would threaten social peace. lisa: let's go back to what was said earlier on the show, he could seat $130 a barrel of brent crude if the base case remains where we are, but if sanctions were imposed that to be $150 a barrel. i wonder the soft sanctions, how much that will do the work. jonathan: as you suggest, in practice, even without an embargo or sanctions from a lot of people are pulling back from russian crude and we have to figure that out. crude $111.60. futures positive one third of 1%. from new york city, on radio, on tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is in many ways the second cold war. globalization is at risk and

that means the inflationary forces we have seen are getting another boost from challenging geopolitical times. tom: a piercing conversation with ed yardeni harkening back to his great work in the 1990's on the collapse of the soviet union and now commenting on what we observe today, war in ukraine. dow futures up 109, the vix shows the churn and stability of the markets this morning. lisa abramowicz and tom keene on radio and television. mario gabelli joins. to say he is officer at gabel li funds barely described his conversation to finance in america. he used to write 12 page notes on what is going on in the market. let's go there. i love your note on this morning

where you say look for m&a given all that is going on in american finance and you speak of vertical and horizontal mergers and acquisitions. i love that. describe. mario: make it simple. we have a new regulatory regime in the united states. others are saying should a company that has a 5% market share and a company that has 8% market share, should they be combined into the old index -- i will not get into the details because i do not know how to pronounce it. the buyers of companies -- at the same time private equity buying companies -- is that of vertical integration into products that will then go into the products they sell come

visit their customer pipeline? that is as simple as that. from my point of view, you cannot have the government look at things in a linear way. a producer of hypersonic capability was turned down, this is a major defense dynamic, extraordinarily good balance sheet, they have a couple hundred million dollars in excess assets they can selloff. lockheed was trying to buy them. they cannot put $500 million into r&d. tom: i want to get lisa abramowicz in here. give me one short answer. you are flogging your book on television behind you. merger masters. i know you need to sell a couple of more copies to make the month go. if i look at merger masters, when you wrote that book. get up and get the book.

seriously. you mentioned it. private equity is in there right now. how does your world change if steve schwarzman is buying companies. mario: they always do that, instead of just buying it and holding it, they not only by the company, but they basically then go in and have companies do what they are buying. what that means is if you are buying something today, in an ideal world is to buy something that has cash flow minus capex data multiple that you can selloff and no lower multiple and then with interest rates changing, that is what they do. they are raising significant amounts of capital in moving around. any organization, and if lisa is

interested, looking at putting private equity into the funds -- they mark their portfolios to model, which means institutions like the effect that changes in the stock market, then what happens is not complicated. more money goes in. what you want to do is by schwarzman's company, you want to buy the company, kkr. by the pe firms. in the public markets there are public market stocks. john malone would be a good example. another good example would be berkshire hathaway. lisa: i am very interested in all of the ways to formulate value. at the same time right at this moment a lot of people are trying to understand the parameters to input into these formulas. where is the price of oil? where is the interest rate strategy? when it comes to oil, how do you

even come up with input at this point? mario: when you look at the companies that reported earnings , you basically have to look at the ecosystem. two years ago, in march 2020, when we had a disaster in the market, when we had covid impact, the only thing that did well was growth stocks. today you are having the market look at energy. i as a buyer of products does do years ago was putting down on my inventory because i needed to preserve my working capital. today i am taking whatever i can put into my inventory and whatever price i have to pay and i need to understand -- we're dusting off a lot of old knowledge. energy, oil, we as a country

forgot about it is a strategic element even though you had the sunni's and shias fighting forever. it was a bad policy. we all want renewables, we all want solar, wind, hydro. we need transmission and it is not coming. it is bad policy. tom: we are out of time but he will continue on radio. for tv i need you to hold up mergers and masters. hold the book up right now. mario: this was written by a colleague of mine. tom: a great book. mario: it deals with how to make money when a romance is announced. company a wants to buy company be it also tells you how the investment bankers and lawyers talk and the arbiters work in the process of doing this. it is a good discipline for

someone that has mathematical background, has common sense, and wants to make money over 30 years. tom: we have to wrap this up and go to the headlines. this is a grown-up book for global wall street and if you're on global wall street it is the single best book on the machinery of gabelli's world. mario gabelli continuing on radio. we have to go to these markets. i have green on the screen now but mostly what i have is a churn off of each and every headline. lisa: with a complete lack of conviction howdy rearrange your portfolio? i keep going back to what we were talking about earlier. you have bonds as i haven call because of the likelihood of inversion, a mistake. that is what has been playing out. tom: i have been watching euro swissie all morning and to be under a wondered -- to be under

102 for me is a huge deal. stay with us through this day including chairman powell testimony. futures up 17. a more constructive market, somewhat. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

jonathan: this market turning around the last 30 minutes. futures positive .6%. the countdown to the open starts

right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york, we begin with the big issue. a commodity shock. >> this extra move up triggered by a potential disruption to oil supplies around the ukraine crisis. >> this is an enormous amount of oil. >> this is not just about oil. look where we'd prices are, it is about metals, it is copper, it is aluminum. >> a number of ports and the black sea are not taking boats at the moment. >> the inability to