taylor: taking a look at how markets performed on the day, when you think about the s&p 500, the transports were interesting because earlier it was positive with the shipping and railroad costs were underway, closing back down. it's a classic safe haven with a second pay testimony here, you ended up still closing in triple date it's. still up $108 per barrel. the change up on all of this went back to the inflationary story of not only wages and a

big commodity prices, but how it impacted the federal reserve ahead of that rate hike that was expected. you still have the bloomberg commodities spot index closing one of the best weeks we have had in the 60's and 70's. that was the markets wrap. what you miss starts -- "what'd you miss?" starts now. ♪ caroline: i'm caroline hyde and in today's triple take it a look at tomorrow's u.s. jobs report. confirming that the fed chair, jay powell, his assessment on the labor market, there is plenty of room to withstand the rate hike. we will dig into which section is struggling the most and how wages are holding up on the inflation that keeps getting hotter. what do economists suspect,

romaine? romaine: how hard is this going to be? talking about the jobs data, it's all over the place. remember last month, the report from january? everyone got that wrong. everyone was expecting a big decline in jobs. a year ago, april of 2021, there was a flipside where everyone expected them to make a raisin in the jobs numbers and we got that down. here is what we are looking at tomorrow, 730 on the high-end, somewhere around the 420 bubble here. manufacturing jobs are expected to be a significant contributor this time around with the unemployment rate kicking up a sign that more people are coming back in and of the big number a lot of people are looking at are the average hourly earnings, the consensus estimate for what we should see tomorrow morning.

taylor: so, big, egg numbers here when you think about the wage pressure. thinking about all of this with the bloomberg u.s. economy reporter. read, walk us through maybe first the range of numbers that we continue to see and how difficult the forecasting has become. >> the first big picture is this stronger roof momentum heading into this year, stronger than we thought we were going to get. then we thought it would withstand omicron better. we are really expecting a continuation of that momentum in february as the u.s. economy power through omicron and the people at home sick in january were able to turn back to work with businesses open and a lot

of the same structural issues. participation remains low, pushing up wages. we are expecting another strong wage print tomorrow as well. caroline: when you look at this vast array of expectations,r and economists saying that 80,000 jobs will be added, are they anticipating that they cannot attract talent and that is why the number is so low? reade: that's a part of it. the participation challenge is a real challenge here, a structural thing. economists are expecting part -- participation to come back to some degree over the course of the year but really not too much. from the perspective of that low number, that is part of it. thinking about when the jobs were is taken, midmonth to midmonth. i don't know who made that

80,000 job number estimate off the top of my head, but there is also concerned that in this survey that you saw at the beginning of february there were still a lot of people not at work because of covid and that might influence the estimate as well. romaine: regardless of what the number winds up being, is there a sense that the number tomorrow might factor in any meaningful way in march? taylor: -- reade: it's their last jobs report before the meeting and powell has been clear that he is in favor of a 25 basis point hike and it seems that the hot imprint we have gotten and where the jobs market is now, the expectation that cpi year-over-year will be nearly 8% next week. i think it all really comes together to really keep the fed

on track for raising interest rates at the march meeting. taylor: is wage growth slowing? has it eked? reade: it is expected to decelerate over the course of the year in part because of the participation thing i mentioned earlier. there are a lot of cyclical and structural factors in play that could keep wages elevated for a while. one being the participation element and this massive amount of demand for labor. we have seen the economy really turned back on in the resilience of consumer demand and as the demand continues throughout the year, businesses will need to staff these positions with this idea that when consumers see higher prices at the gas tank, higher prices at the grocery store they are more inclined to go to their boss to ask for a raise. there are these upward pressures coming together to keep wages high and above pre-pandemic

trends through the rest of the year. romaine: all right, that is reade, who will be there in washington again tomorrow i presume as the economists are looking for the payroll numbers. let's keep this kind of -- let's keep this conversation going with elise gould. we were talking to someone earlier on this network about this idea of the fed rate hike that everyone seems to think is coming and made the point that we are at full employment and i sort of question that. are we? is what we are seeing in the data, does it constitute full employment? we have to look at many different measures. it's true that the unemployment rate is down to 4% but you also mentioned and the data is clear that participation is still soft and we have much lower rates than we had before the pandemic.

we want to see that return and keep the unemployment rate at the kinds of levels we are seeing now. the third thing we could get when we think about full employment is wage growth and yes we have seen stronger wage growth this year in lower wage sectors where there was more of a scarcity of workers that could bargain up their wages and we need to see that continue in order to feel like we are really on track and i feel like we are on track for a full recovery by the end of the year if we see these kinds of numbers that we have been seeing in recent months. there has of course been much talk that people have left of this labor market for good and people are looking differently at their way of life. is that still the case or do you think people will be tempted back out of retirement or that the participation rates will continue to climb? i absolutely think that participation rates will continue to climb, people will come back to the labor market as the pandemic or seeds, coming

back from retirement. i'm very optimistic about that. i don't know if you remember but in the recovery from the great recession people thought that thousands of would-be workers would be sidelined permanently in that something didn't happen. it took a long time because policymakers didn't really breathe the right life into the recovery like they have done now and we are on our way to a much faster recovery than we had from the great recession so i absolutely expect people to come back over the next few months, in fact. are the consumers bulking at higher prices? great question, -- elise: a great question, i haven't looked at all of the data but it depends on the consumer and how their dollar is spent. there is this bright spot that some have seen faster wage growth than inflation in recent months and what you were talking about earlier with the federal

reserve and wage growth it's important to remember that it is not spurring on inflation. inflation comes from the same place it came from over the last year, these supply-chain bottlenecks. that's where you see the global phenomenon of higher prices not driven by the faster wage growth we are seeing in certain sectors of the economy. romaine: wage growth is impressive and on this program we talked about the unequal recovery and avoiding the mistakes coming out of the covid recession compared to past recessions. we are basically on the precipice of basically a new cycle and we know the fed is going to tighten. the data is supportive of that trendline based on what we first heard. do you think that what we have accomplished here in the economy, i should say, that it is sort of i guess correcting or at least avoiding some of the mistakes we made coming out of the great financial crisis of the last big recession?

elise: absolutely, the federal response has been a norm is to the scale of the problem which is why we are seeing such a bounce back. i do hope the lessons will be learned going forward and we have done things that when we expanded unemployment insurance to make more workers eligible, we should make those changes permanent, so when the next recession hits we have the conversation we need. caroline: what do you think of this always ongoing problem about support and of the people who are in the poverty gap, indeed, there's always the argument and we have seen it proven tom -- proven wrong time and again, minimum wage raise, people thinking they will fall out of the workforce. will there be any of these safety nets that in some way could stop people from coming back to the workforce in your perspective?

elise: i don't think that it will keep people from coming back to the workforce but i think some policymakers are already starting to forget but we learned early on like paid sick leave, paid holidays, those things are important to workers like decent wage growth. those benefits are important to draw people back into the labor force. caroline: we will see if there is continued progression on any of those cases over in the senate. thank you, elise gould, senior economist. a new study on green industries coming from linkedin. we dig into where the economy and labor market is running hot and which sector is ringing new workers. guy berger will be with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: we are taking a look ahead to friday's big payroll report and linkedin data shows that one of the hardest hit sectors in the pandemic is making the strongest rebound, taylor. taylor: indeed, and maybe you would expect that given the jobs that were lost in the travel retail sector but look, they are up 40% from those pre-covid levels and you are starting to get a new rebound. software and i.t. is up as the movement toecand investment company, the investments they are m continues in caroline: caroline: co i feel like we have a lot of those.

just one other comment before we just get to corporate real services, i believe it was the adp numbers this week that had a satyr trend for smaller businesses losing out while bigger businesses were doing well. again normally not the breakdown of sectors but it's the pain they are feeling. romaine: 8 -- caroline: a good point with them paying higher and smaller ones not. look, bring in guy berger, principal economist at linkedin, he tracks the trends worldwide. just released the 2022 global green skills report addressing the threat of climate change and before we dig into that report, what does the data first and foremost tell you about the u.s. recovery in terms of jobs? is it that these people are coming back to recreation and travel but having the paid more

to do so? guy: that's a great question and i think that is exactly what we are seeing. the sector shed so many workers early on, they went on to other jobs and now the sector is trying to hire as many people as possible, they are being coached from other companies, they are paying more, and it is a tremendous turnover. they are doing what they can to stay in the same spot and running ever faster, it's pretty amazing to see. caroline: are we back to -- taylor: are we back to getting to the pre-covid levels that we talked about that we lost? guy: it could be happening way faster than anybody expected and we did talk a lot about five policy hawks do that. -- why policy hawks do that and it is interesting to me that things like wage growth, so much

stronger than you would have expected. the job market is behaving a lot tighter right now than traditional measures like prime working age or employment population ratio suggests. romaine: when we talk about the jobs being created, before we brought you on taylor was highlighting the travel companies and print services, i.t. services as well. i am curious as to whether we are creating new, a new type of industry job, jobs that could replace those that aren't going to be replaced coming out of this pandemic. guy: well, i mean, i still come back to the fact that there are some things that will change pretty radically. hybrid jobs have a much higher share of listings than they did before pandemic but a lot of the jobs coming back are probably more of the same as we had

before but in different locations. people might want to go on vacation even more than they did. romaine: i'm just going to hone in my question a little bit. we have heard from so many in the travel industry. ceos, executives, we talked about how they automated a lot of stuff and we talked about how they found ways to do things with fewer people and it is raising the russian as to whether you need to get back to 2019 staffing levels. maybe you could make do with less. guy: i know that ceos are saying this, but the numbers we are seeing in the labor market show us that we are seeing extreme shortages in the labor market, recreation and travel in our data. again, they may be trying to respond to it and maybe it means they get less key workers to me it really looks like a labor

shortage in that industry, not some sort of surplus where they are stuck with workers they don't want to hire her. caroline: turnover, what does it look like at the moment, guy? caroline: it's extremely elevated. our hiring dana is higher than was. they are switching jobs a lot. we kind of think of it more as a great reshuffle. people moving job to job in terms of better pay and better benefits. workers feel like they have borrowing power and they are taking advantage of it and that is probably a good thing. taylor: is there a skills gap in this country with the inflationary pressures to the pivot of being green and less reliant in russian oil, for example? in the pivot, are the skills available for the american

workers? taylor: that's a good -- guy: that's a good question with guilt -- green jobs. i don't like the term skills gap, it puts the onus on workers as though they are not up to the task. this will be between employers, educators, governments, but where the -- whether the private and public sector need these skills, they should happily invest in workers but i don't like the term skills gap. it feels off to me. romaine: it feels off but when there was a halloween out of the manufacturing sector, we talked about it years ago, and forgive me for using the phrase, the skills gap, there never seemed to be a coordinated effort here to close the gap and address it. i know that there were attempts

but the political theater of this country kinda prevented that from taking place. guy: i will tell you that climate change is one of if not biggest challenge that this country and many around the world are facing and the fact that we are seeing jobs growing faster than people able to fill them is a problem and it limits the, what we can do to mitigate climate change. so i guess i'm really hoping that we do differently in this case than we did last time but if we don't i think we are going to say the green path is well above what we are capable of doing. romaine: really epic -- taylor: really appreciate your perspective there, guy berger. guy's, it's a jobs day tomorrow. i know that will be the key focus for us in the final take, which is next. stick with us, this is bloomberg.

♪ romaine: all right, the triple take, focusing on what is going to happen with the jobs data tomorrow. romaine: of course -- taylor: of course, the devil is always in the details. average hourly earnings, talked about that on the ticker with a bit of a deceleration. caroline: not 80,000, but it comes from this state university. we've got to get them on and reach out why he sees 80,000 but in general it's up to 700,000 at the top of the range. caroline: we have big news coming up -- taylor: we have big

news, starting monday, "triple take," that is our new name. romaine: because three anchors? taylor: three tanks. -- takes. until we vote you off the island. [laughter] ♪

emily: this is "bloomberg technology and -- technology" and in the next hour, more sanctions against vladimir and those closest to him. we will bring you thst