shock. >> we are going to get an inverted curve. >> go too fast, they risk stagflation. go to slow, inflation can become a trend. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." futures down 0.8%. tom: the digital revolution, the social media makes it so immediate. we saw that last night. the good news, what i see this morning is a real weekend balance sheet adjustment even with the? it's closed and you see it with euro.

jonathan: if you are just waking up this morning, let's go through this piece by piece. overnight, a nuclear plant came under attack by russian forces. a fire broke out at a training complex. we understand the fire has been contained. some of the headlines we understand this morning, no change in radiation. that is really important. we learned it has not affected essential equipment. we do know that russian forces are now in control of that site. any additional headlines, we will keep bringing them through the morning. tom: this is north out of crimea which has been the real thrust of the russians. the real headline is that this is a nuclear power country. there is a lot more of the reactors to, if the russians continue to advance. jonathan: getting response worldwide focus. this from nato, it just a mess

rated the recklessness of this war and the importance of ending it. lisa: that is a sentiment that is widely held throughout the world especially because this power helps to generate a lot of the crops to grow, the necessary commodities that come out of this nation addition to the 44 million people who live here. we are finding out even if there has been some sort of disaster averted, what does this mean going forward in terms of ramping up the conflict and taking steps that really have not been taken before and we are seeing that from vladimir putin. jonathan: there is a ministerial meeting. secretary blinken will be attending that. this has been an escalation overnight. how are we expecting them to respond? lisa: that is a great question because how far can they go without hurting themselves? we hear that from president biden. members of congress have a very different message. you can see the splintering of people who want to go as hard as

possible on sanctions and others who want to take additional steps. jonathan: live pictures streaming in last night. we snapped back a little bit. futures are still negative on the s&p. we are down by 0.8%. the s&p 500 only down 0.5%. go through some of the banking names that have lost a quarter of their value in one week alone. tom: that is so important. yes, there was a snapback on the u.s. 10 year that came back nicely. that does not tell the story of the balance sheet adjustment underway again into the weekend. you can see it across every nation front and center in europe. jonathan: socgen down 24%. it has been brutal for these names. lisa: how do you measure not only the fallout from russia sanctions also from commodity

prices increasing to such a degree and slowing growth? how do you factor in a stagflationary environment to banking statistics? one thing we have not mentioned is say the payroll is friday and yet that seems to be completely lost in the conversation because doesn't even matter at a time where there seems to be a greater threat? we do get the february jobs report that is expected as a deceleration from january. i am watching the average hourly earnings. they are expected to increase to a new high on an average basis going back one decade that including the disruptions from the pandemic. how much does this matter as you try to offset the increases you are seeing in gas prices and the other commodities affected? secretary of state antony blinken will be joining the nato meeting you were talking about. he will be speaking to press in

brussels about new sanctions. yesterday he said the sanctions and part of president biden's intersection -- that is nice. what about those oil sanctions? that is what everyone will be talking about in addition to the additional steps. china is very much in focus and china matters to the situation as well. a speech outlining academic goals, they are expected to ratchet back there estimated gdp between 5% and 5.5% which is the slowest since 1991. i'm interested in what they are going to say about ukraine. how much are they going to step into this conflict. they have been quiet with respect to their previous alliance with russia. jonathan: team coverage starts right now. maria tadeo in brussels. emily wilkins in washington, d.c.. abby, stunning footage overnight.

what have we learned so far this morning? abigail: it is important to state that this nuclear plant was a training facility as you mentioned that the top of the show. it caught on fire and now it is under russian occupation. the material in the nuclear plant has not been affected. what is important to know is that this is showing the progression of russian troops from the major centers they have managed to caption and they are going -- they have managed to capture and they are going to hundred 30 kilometers of. tom: i am curious into the weekend, the belief that the russians will turn west at some point.

right now. it is clear they have been pushing a lot into the south of the country and there have been talks about where they would go next but this is important to see that president zelensky of ukraine said that he. what happened overnight should be a wake-up call to europe. if anything were to go wrong in any one of these conflicts on the ground, this could be a serious concern for the entire continent of europe. lisa: we have nato ministers meeting today in brussels talking about what the next steps are. this is very much escalation. what is on the table? >> everyone was concerned after the footage. there were shocked -- they were shocked when they saw the footage. vladimir putin is now playing with fire but we have to be careful about not escalating on that front. if you look at everything that has happened over the past 48

hours, he has escalated militarily. we will see what happens. you can see that russia keeps bringing up the nuclear aspect to this. vladimir putin said he would put his nuclear forces on high alert. and now we have this attack that has been confirmed in a nuclear plant. the europeans say this is concerning on that front because there was no hint that russia plans to de-escalate and i will also point to a speech yesterday by vladimir putin on russian tv in which he said the operation will continue. he repeated 10 times, we have to get rid of the nazis that govern ukraine. tom: mr. putin out with headlines right now. he says he has no evil intent toward neighbors. we understand that the neighbors do not include ukraine. andrea cosgrove writes this

morning of the news blackout to the russian people. what is brussels and others doing about informing the russian people? maria: at this point, the reality is it is almost impossible to get independent journalism going on in russia. we know that russia will come down on anything that they fear is a threat to the russian military and to the russian operation so that means shutting down news outlets and potentially sending them to prison for up to 50 years, anyone who spreads fake news about the military operation that is ongoing and it is telling that nobody talks about a war. they say this is a military operation and a peacekeeping operation to protect the people of ukraine. yesterday, vladimir putin repeated, "i will never give up my conviction that ukrainians and russians are the same people." lisa: emily wilkins, is

president biden controlling the narrative or has he lost the plot as a growing number of members call for sanctions on russia? emily: to hear how speaker pelosi say she was in support of banning oil from russia. you saw the bipartisan press conference yesterday between senator joe manchin, lisa murkowski saying that they would also be supportive of this. this is a clear break between congressional democrats as well as the white house. this puts pressure on the biden administration to take this proposal more seriously. at this point, the biden administration says the reason they have not done this is because they are worried about the impact it could have on the global economy, the u.s. economy, on gas prices. that is something the biden administration is very cognizant of. they have to deal with inflation while they are dealing with the ukraine crisis. the biden administration is also under pressure from shell companies saying that this is

another area where the u.s. could be more reliant on what the u.s. produces and less so on what russia produces. at this point, we have not seen any signs of the biden administration, that will be the route they take. jonathan: that line from speaker pelosi, ban the oil from russia, pretty clear about it. lisa: that you had jen psaki coming out saying that they want to be cautious to protect consumers at the pump. what is the message? how much has there been a cohesive message out of the white house? jonathan: emily, thank you. maria tadeo, thank you very much. it is the price action i want to pick up on briefly and it takes place in europe. euro-dollar with a brief break. 1.09998 right now. 1.0995 euro-dollar. the euro-dollar breaking down. lisa: this really highlights the

divergent state of the u.s. and europe in the face of these stagflationary shocks. how much can europe do something? there was a story overnight from the european team talking about how it is a given that the ecb will push back any rate hiking cycle in response to what you are seeing right now. jonathan: it is for the european lenders, earning credits by 9.4%. deutsche down by a present. -- 8%. pretty brutal for european banks. tom: this is old world analysis. even the great stephen roach does this. you go to the balance sheet analysis. we cannot do that with russia because they have not adjusted, including the ruble. in other places, those adjustments are happening in real time. jonathan: these weekly moves are something. lisa: if you look at benchmark european stocks, they are down

with the biggest weekly loss going back to 2020 at the height of the pandemic. i am blown away on this. 40% weekly gains. that is what we are looking at with price action every single day as people glean what could happen from the ukrainian disruption. this is unprecedented. jonathan: some big moves in the market and big development overnight. you have seen the pictures of a nuclear plant coming under attack by russian forces. the fire has been contained. the fire broke out at a training complex. no change in radiation levels and essential equipment was not affected. that is the good news. russian forces now in control of the site and we will be exploring the headlines for you throughout this morning on radio, on tv. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the plant has been

compromised with what happened last night. it is time for action. we need to do something about this. jonathan: that was the iaea director general. allow me to get to up to speed -- get you up to speed. we understand this morning that the fire has been contained. there is no change in the radiation levels. we learned that it has not affected the essential equipment. they were the main takeaways from the iaea this morning. tom: my main takeaway was that the russians were shooting at the firefighters and there are a bunch of reactions to come. it was a real lesson of what is to come in the coming days. jonathan: futures down 0.9% on the s.a.p.. over in germany, the decks down.

the moves we are seeing in the european banks are something. tom: we will dive into this data on this jobs day. joining us now with a terrific brief, allen raskin, chief strategist at deutsche bank. piercing notes right now. allen, i loved your note on geopolitical proximity. what are the proximities that christine lagarde faces in the coming days? allen: when you look at it in the context of currencies, currency is a useful way of viewing the world, there are a few things that most influenced currencies at this point. one is geography and geopolitics. there is a humanitarian aspect to this related.

there is also a policy response, which means easier monetary policy and probably more fiscal stimulus. of course, there is a trade affect. in europe, there is this energy dependence we are watching very closely and that compares to some countries like the united states, like canada where there is reduced energy dependence on russia. tom: what have you learned about the inflation overshoot? you harken back to milton friedman. i cannot believe i saw that. we had a pandemic and now we are clearly having some form of anti-transitory move. is there more to come and can you and deutsche bank model out wheat and oil? allen: there are a few different factors behind this inflation

story and the most obvious one was the supply chain bottleneck story. that was a story that came forth in march of last year. behind that was the idea that there was a huge monetary overshoot that was essentially allowing prices to go up across a wide swath of the economy. in addition, you have the commodity price implications. that is effectively another supply shock, a different supply shock. the first one was manufacturing chain related. this one is commodity-related. the problem you have is that if you thought things were transitory in the first instant, that has not come to pass. we hope that inflation would be under control by the end of this year and commodities and that has dampened those expectations.

inflation is much more entrenched in the system. lisa: how much further does this weakness have to go? allen: that is a good question. things are changing rapidly. we have broken some pretty key levels. the 9780 level was important. targeting 100 on dxy. on euro-dollar, the 107.80 is the next target. in order to break the lows that we have not seen since before 2020, that would be below 106. i do not think that will happen too easy. people anticipate a large fiscal stimulus because you are still getting safety flows from countries. lisa: do you by the idea that david put out there that the ecb should intervene by saying that

they still are considering raising rates this year to support the euro? allen: it is interesting in terms of just trying to get the policy right. the interesting angle there was whether they could still raise rates, get rates above zero, which i think is going to be a helpful phenomenon from the economy standpoint. at the same time, suppress the negative growth implications by doing more qe and keeping rates lower and helping the periphery. that is a story of trying to get the right balance between short-term rates and long-term rates. jonathan: just to wrap things up , once the fed starts hiking, we will have raising interest rates at the fed. we will have a stronger dollar and a rally on the commodity market. do you think those things can coexist? allen: yeah, i think they can for a while. unfortunately, you feel like the policy response to higher

inflation that we are talking about ultimately brings about a sharp or slow down and ultimately brings about a stagflationary environment. it is too early to talk about growth but i think that is the way, the main transmission from commodity prices onto slower growth and stagflation is usually by policy tightening and the fed will have to deal with what is an increasingly problematic environment. you are dealing with growth slowing and inflation going up. even if inflation starts slowing, it will slow -- all of the second derivatives are not working in terms of making policy easy at this point. jonathan: it is really difficult. thank you. morgan stanley came out with their call for payrolls. the estimate is for 23. there estimate is 730,000. they expect average hourly

earnings to rise 0.4%, on the year, 5.7%. 5.7% does not get you to where inflation is right now. lisa: we are looking at a labor market that looks very overheated. the bigger than expected expectations from morgan stanley, did you hear about what jerome powell said with the job openings, basically talking about how this does seem to be something that is signaling wage momentum? jonathan: i did not hear a dovish chair this week. secretary blinken will be meeting with the nato secretary-general a little bit later. then there will be a nato ministerial meeting, a g7 meeting taking place as well in brussels. tom: it is a trip for secretary blinken, going from country to

country around eastern europe. windows swiss bank -- when does swiss bank intervene? jonathan: futures down by 0.8%. from new york city, it is payrolls day. it just does not feel like it. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: on the s&p 500, we began down about 0.5%. the nasdaq is down much more. brutal out there. futures down by 0.8%. there is a big difference between what is happening in europe and what is happening stateside. futures on the nasdaq were down 0.7%. treasuries look a little bit like bonds if you look at the price action. yields common down six basis points. it will be very interesting to see how we respond and react to payrolls. the estimate around 420,000. chairman powell did not sound dovish. the u.s. economy and the data is going to look good and if it looks good, how do they respond one week away from cpi in

america, which could have an a handle? lisa: does it matter when you look at the commentary this morning, no one is mentioning the jobs number. how much can they move when there is another stagflationary shock effect in the market? jonathan: just not part of the story in any way, shape, or form. stunning pitches overnight. the fire at the nuclear plant is contained. the good news, radiation levels have not changed. some good news. for many people, last night was scary. tom: it was really scary. there was a point at 10:00, 11:00 p.m. where there was legitimate panic and it has calmed down. some of the spread statistics are warily ugly -- are really ugly. they are not european ugly, but they are a different climate.

we will do a different jobs report right now with carl riccadonna, chief economist for bloomberg intelligence. i will rip up the script. i did a standard deviation study on the vanilla spread, a difference on the two-year and the 10 year and we have broken down into a recession indicator. one standard deviation below the norm going back a solid 35 years. all of a sudden, we are on the edge of there. how close are we on a gdp basis to recession? carl: i think we are a long way off from a recession consideration for gdp and we can see that in the relative resilience of markets. they are down year to date. but they are surprisingly resilient given the events we see taking place across the world. the flattening of the yield curve is an important signal of

the direction of growth, the second derivative on growth, and we can see a flatter yield curve implies a significant growth slow down and the effect -- the fact that this is baked into the forecast of the economists and the federal reserve where this year we will see nominal gdp decelerate from 12% at the end of last year until something in the vicinity of 6% at the end of this year. there is a very sharp growth slowdown. that is being expressed in the yield curve fundamentals. tom: that is a chinese economy you described. we are not china. what is normal nominal? what are we heading towards? carl: we are not china but we were chinese last year because we had tremendous state intervention into the economy. trillions of dollars supporting economic growth which is no longer there this year so we are becoming un-chinese in 2022.

a more steady-state long-term level for the u.s. economy would be something closer to 4% nominal gdp which would reflect 2% inflation-adjusted growth and to present headline inflation. we will be close to that in 2023 and probably arrive in 2024. that will be the fed's longer-term objective and if we are moving in that direction, then officials can take confidence they are doing the right thing. they do need -- they do not need to act more aggressively or change the pace. back to lisa's point about the relevancy of payrolls to the fed outlook, it is not impacting what happens on march 16th but this shapes how the fed is looking at action further out this year, maybe taking 50 rate hikes off the table with later meetings. more importantly, we have a financial instability concern, very prevalent in the markets in europe and the u.s.. and we have a fed tool that potentially causes financial

market instability as they unwind the balance sheet and we do not fully understand the consequences of that. it may marginally impact the profile for the fund's rights. more materially, this may be pushing back the start and the pace of the balance sheet unwinding. lisa: monetary policy nuance does not read that well on a morning like this when people are trying to game out what is the meaning of $150 barrels of oil. what is the resiliency to a broader military conflict? there are all sorts of scenarios people are trying to game out. when looking at commodity prices, what oil price could make you rethink the statement that we are not that close to a recession? carl: $150 a barrel on oil would be five dollars gasoline in the u.s. so that would have shocking

consequences to inflation expectations and the consumer spending profile where we already see consumers starting -- it was a strong retail sales report that we last saw but when we started to pry into the details, it was noted that the discretionary categories like restaurant sales and the types of categories where you will pull back when your pocketbook starts to get pinched, they started to show some signs of weakness. the absence of all of that fiscal support will drag over $1 trillion on the u.s. economy this year. if we look at where gas prices currently stand, about $3.60 plus per gallon, that poses a drag on consumers of $100 billion. we are seeing significant headwinds starting to buffet the economy. maybe not yet reflected in economic data, but you will see that becoming more prevalent as this quarter and next quarter wear on.

we have never been to $5 gasoline in the u.s. and if we get there, that will be a shocking development for consumers and a point of concern. i've not want to go on tape saying $150 on oil prices is where we go into recession but modeling this as we get into the $150 to $200 range that that will really create some strain and heighten recession risk in the economy. the one saving grace is that there is an immense buffer of cash that households have a kid related over the course of the recession. it is more in higher income households but that is enabling households to deal with these very high inflation pressures and energy prices. lisa: it is not just gas. it is aluminum, wheat, corn, a lot of the basic staples people use. how do you factor that into your models? carl: we can see how something

like aluminum -- not many households are buying aluminum so we have to look further down the supply chain but we compare producer prices to consumer prices and save the pipeline pressures coming through the system and what we can see is that we are getting close to a peek in cpi but that does that mean we have declines coming. we just have a deceleration of some degree. second derivative effect coming down the pipeline and the fed is taking confidence that there will be a moderation coming. the oil price spike delays that peak, but in a lot of categories, we can see that it is starting to slow down and as we diverge consumer spending into energy spending, spending at the pump, then that will remove some of the inflationary pressures elsewhere in the system once consumers work

through their savings buffer, which we did see the household savings rate coming down so the buffer is wearing thin and you will see more bifurcation in the inflation numbers where it is not a rising tide across the board but some hot categories feeling momentum. jonathan: good to catch up. carl riccadonna of bloomberg. it is important to reset. the german economy minister got all the headlines yesterday morning said he would support an embargo of fossil fuels from russia and speak out against it. those comments came out almost exactly the same time that we got a readout of the conversation between putin and macron. there was nothing in what president putin told us that should reassure us putin wants to seize the control of ukraine. you wonder what gives way here. if that materializes, do we have

to shift our stands in europe on energy sanctions? lisa: that is what people are speculating could come out of today's nato meeting. how much further could you go as we see an escalation by vladimir putin? he is clearly not giving up his goal. he said that clearly and clearly the attack on the nuclear power plant indicates that. where do we go from here? jonathan: there is a split from democrats. an obvious one. you heard it from jen psaki. speaker pelosi denied what she saw, ban the oil from russia. tom: i agree with you. what pelosi said was really important. democrats are not on the same page as the republicans but there is a huge consensus to be tough on mr. putin in america. jonathan: i wonder what percentage russian imports of

crude or russian crude imports for the u.s. with makeup anyway. it was 3% last year. i wonder what it comes down to anyway. tom: aluminum, everything else, it is much more than third world countries like the effect of wheat on egypt is a huge deal. it is much less on america, europe, and great britain. lisa: it is also the sanctioning. a lot of companies are not importing it. it is expensive because of the political risk. jonathan: that is what i'm getting at. people are pulling back anyway. we talked about it all week. the u.s. has a different calculation compared to the european union. futures down 0.8%. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: i am ritika gupta. volodymyr zelensky is urging europe to wake up.

he issued a video message this morning after russian forces occupied the largest nuclear power plant in europe. that followed an attack that ignited a fire at the complex. >> if there is an explosion, that is the end for everyone. the end for europe. the evacuation of europe. only urgent action can stop the russian troops. do not allow the death of europe become a catastrophe at a power station. ritika: the head of ukraine's nuclear armed forces says the plant is protected with thick metal. as the u.s. and allies tighten sanctions on russia and choke off demand for its assets, part of wall street is jumping on the buying opportunity it is creating. goldman sachs and jp morgan have been pressing company bonds in russia in recent days. those banks have declined comment. united arab emirates will be

named on a global watchdog gray list. some members of the financial action task force have indicated the nation has not made enough progress in its tackling of financial. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> nato is a defensive alliance. we do not seek conflict with russia but let there be no doubt

our commitment to article five is ironclad. nato will protect and defend every inch of nato territory. jonathan: e installed in burke, the nato secretary-general. futures are negative 0.8%. on the nasdaq, we are down by 0.75%. euro-dollar, 109, down by 0.8%. some real weakness out there. what is taking place in europe right now, the equity benchmark in germany, down by more than 3% once again and the banks are hammered. tom: in the old days, i think it is really important. you have ftse in london. some of the other exchanges are there. the dax is what you play in

europe and the play is big loss. jonathan: deutsche bank down by 6.6%. early credit-rating down by 9%. they have lost about one quarter of their value. tom: i do not want to do a big data check that markets are on the move. massive curve flattening this morning. 27.80 for those who keep score. will kennedy joins us now. i look at the ruble, john mentioned the equity market in russia is closed. is brent crude a good quote or is markets reopened -- as markets reopen, do we get a different price next week? will: market traders will be looking at two things. the thing that has been driving brent higher is that many people have been refusing to buy russian crude and that has led

to the idea that the market is short. the second thing they will be watching, these talks in vienna, which looks like they may be reaching a conclusion. we may get a deal that releases more crude. as we go into the weekend, that is the balance we are striking but it is worth saying that the voluntary -- the volatility is off the charts. overnight, we went back to almost $120. tom: we had a boat sunk. no one really knows. an estonian boat. for the russians, is the black sea delivery critical for them to move oil out to bring in revenue? will: absolutely. the port in the black sea is one of the major outlets for crude. they need that to keep going. it is important that ships can

get to that port. a lot of tankers are willing to take their ships there because they believe it is dangerous, they are scared of sanctions, the insurance is too expensive, or they do not want to do business with russia. jonathan: talk us through the logistics. let's say you send a tanker to pick up some of this crude. what happens if the sanctions come through? is that what they are grappling with? will: absolutely. the other part you mentioned, oil is not sanctioned but you get to russia, you have to pay port agents, you have to do business with a lot of tanker owners that may not have the biggest compliance department in the world. there is a perception that these issues will get worked out and we may see some easing next week

as traders get more comfortable doing business. we have not seen signs of that yet. you will notice that it was offered at a record discount suggesting that no one wants to touch this oil. lisa: offered at a record discount to your point that a lot of people do not want it. how focused are the commodity traders on oil versus wheat? will: i am not sure it is a competition. there is plenty of attention for both. for all of the attention on oil, food could end up being the bigger story. wheat is trading up every day in chicago. we are at the verge of an all-time high. it was noticeable yesterday as china was reported buying extra cargo of wheat and soy. policymakers have said we are concerned about supply. there is a lot of concern that

this ukraine war will cause a food crisis as well. lisa: i want to pick up on china's involvement, trying to frontload and stockpile ahead of any possible disruptions since they are one of the biggest importers from ukraine. how much action is there on that front with potentially egypt trying to stockpile and other countries as well? will: there is a real scramble. in terms of russian and ukrainian crude, wheat, soy, egypt is the single biggest buyer of wheat in the world and they normally fulfill their tenders to russia because it is the closest big exporter of wheat. it will be a problem for them if ukrainian wheat, which is all closed off and now russian wheat is hard to buy. for the chinese, they will just load up on what they can get from north america in terms of wheat and south america in terms of soy. the other issue that we are looking at is the fact that

ukrainian farmers are not going to plant this spring so this is a crisis that will get worse. it is not just the ability to export from ukrainian ports. it is the ability of ukrainian farmers to grow wheat, in one of the world's most foretell regions. jonathan: i conversation with the deputy governor with the central bank of ukraine. thank you, sir. it will be a huge issue. tom: i agree. this is something that has not been studied. rachel emailed, thank you for watching. this is a serious question to you. we will start paying the gasoline prices you have been paying for your whole life. the 76, a gas company in the west called 76. $5.69 a regular gallon right now. that is almost english-like.

what is it like to spend that much per gallon? what does that do to your life? jonathan: you get used to it. you complain about it because in the u.k. we pay higher taxes than in the united states. but it hurts. you have to remember that demand in general, what you will do is spend less on other things. it could be a bigger demand problem than perhaps an inflation story. tom: allen ruskin alluded to this. we do not know the inflationary impulse of time because you do not get normal substitution. if the price of tang goes up, i can switch to something else orangey. that is an easy substitution. you do not do that with a gallon of gas in a war. jonathan: i just hope you stop drinking tang. the nasdaq down by 0.7%.

crude is higher. just short of $110. the coverage of ukraine continues. from new york city, on tv and radio, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> this is in many ways the second cold war. >> we are coming out of a pandemic and going into another shock. >> the fed is in a very tough place here. >> go too fast, they risk stagflation. go to slow, 7.5 percent and rising inflation can become entrenched. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is payrolls friday. it does not feel like it. from new york city, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. big things can happen in the fog of war. tom: we had the panic last night. i think panic is the right word. we don't usually like to do that, but can we agree 7:30 last night, panic? jonathan: i think a lot of people were scared.