dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani burger in london with manus cranny in dubai. the stories that set your agenda. manus: inflation fears as brent touches 100 $39 and the u.s. considers a unilateral ban on russian oil imports. vladimir putin insist the war will not end until his demands are met. third round of talks today.

the euro drops below parity with the swiss franc. gold hits $2000. copper and palladium at all-time highs. good to be back with you. we are in a new phase of potentially the weaponization of oil. that is potentially unilateral embargo of russian oil. we moved from sanctions to the reality of real sanctions with real teeth on russian oil. good morning. dani: good morning, and the consequences for oil on this economy is real. fears most acute in europe. goldman sachs writes that the constructive thesis for the euro is off the table. we are looking at euro parity at least when it comes to the swiss franc. is the dollar next? manus: we are in an oil shock, inflation shock, stagflation narrative.

to the library you go. this is where you begin to understand the scale of the moves in commodities. the biggest weekly move in 60 years. that excludes the dynamics of palladium, copper, all of the hard metals along with natural gas that are reaching new records. we are in a new weaponization phase of commodities and oil. dani: yeah, really big moves. also want to point out we saw the biggest withdrawal of european equities on record, probably the reason we seem to europe fall to the lowest since 2020. what do cross assets look like? manus: havens are big, risk assets imploding. it is the pillar of the currency is taking the weight. the ruble has imploded. if the u.s. goes for unilateral sanctions on russian oil.

copper higher this morning. 3.3% of the global output comes from russia. goldman sachs says copper is mispriced. could hit 12,000 in the next 12 months. also gold up, people expecting that to get back above $2000. dani: when it comes to stocks, the picture is getting ugly and uglier. down 2.8%. the worst in germany, futures down 3%. financials under pain. down 30% from the peak. s&p 500 futures are not exempt. strategists starting to reduce calls on u.s. stocks. small-cap futures down nearly 2% as the market contemplates stagflationary and recessionary

influence. manus: money flew out of -- flew out last week. bruce einhorn is in hong kong covering the possible royal embargo. juliette saly in singapore. maria tadeo in brussels. and peter is in warsaw covering the latest on ukraine. dani: the u.s. is considering a possible ban of russian oil imports to tighten the economic squeeze on president putin and russia. secretary of state antony blinken said discussion is underway well making there is -- making sure there is an appropriate supply of oil. >> we are talking to european allies to talk about banning russian oil to make sure there is still an appropriate supply of oil in world markets be it that is an active discussion as

we speak. manus: bruce, this move would take the world from self sanctioning mode to perhaps a u.s. move on their own. they have the capacity to do this. how big is the political appetite to do this? bruce: as we just heard, the secretary of state antony blinken would like there to be coordination with european allies on this, but the pressure is building in washington for a quicker action that would be unilateral. we know that over the weekend, president zelensky spoke with u.s. lawmakers. since then, there have been more people coming out in favor of faster action. nancy pelosi sent a letter to members of the house on sunday saying the house is exploring strong legislation that would ban the import of russian oil.

in the democratic caucus, it ranges from people like progressives like elizabeth warren to conservatives like joe manchin in favor of this. the number two senator in the democratic caucus, dick durbin from illinois, he has signed on to this proposal to ban russian energy imports to the u.s.. it seems like the political pressure is building on the biden administration to do something. dani: thank you, that is bruce einhorn. the consequences of what bruce is talking about has hit a jittery market. a rush to havens and fears of inflation shock driven by the surge in crude prices. that's get to juliette saly in singapore, tracking all of the moves. what are you seeing? juliette: absolutely. the fear of high energy prices flowing through to asia. indonesia and malaysia exporters

in the region. the market down 20% from its february 20 .1 peak. -- 2021 peak. copper hit $21 earlier in the session. we talked about copper being at a record and palladium also at a record, going back to 1993. you talk about parity with the euro, it fell below parity for the first time since january 2015, and the consequence of the impact for higher energy prices, weighing through to currencies. the rupee at a record low against the dollar. china's market extending losses. they've got this aggressive 5.5% growth target for 2022 which most analysts say will require a lot of targeted equality support. equities hit i the global risk off shock we are seeing despite the hope for more policy support

from the pboc and how complicated is that going to be by the covid zero policy? the most cases since the will hand crisis. then -- since the wuhan crisis. manus: great round up. juliette saly in singapore. president putin has said again the war will continue until ukraine excepts his demands. for the latest let's get to maria tadeo in europe. we go into a third round of talks since the official invasion. a flurry of geopolitics over the weekend. will any of it bear any fruit today? maria: we are going into round three, but if you look at every round we have had so far, we've accomplished every little. round two, they agree to a cease-fire in a humanitarian corridor, but it was broken many

times you have president vladimir putin repeating we had a special operation. remember in russia, the word war is not allowed in public media. you face up to 50 years in prison for spreading "fake news" about the military. putin says it is going according to plan and the objective they want to fulfill. round three of negotiating talks here, russia wants a different government in ukraine, they want to demilitarized the country, take away their weapons, and put an end to the bid for e.u. membership and nato. when you speak to ukrainian officials, they say they will not agree to this. it is total capitulationthey w'. itfficto see a diplomatic way forward if russia doesn't change some of the demands it has been making until now. dani: maria, thank you very much. our european correspondent,

fantastic reporting today and all of last week on all of this. more than 1.5 million people have crossed from ukraine into neighboring countries the past 10 days according to the yuan -- the un. it is the fastest-growing refugee crisis since world war ii. let's get the latest from our warsaw bureau chief. bring us up to date with the border. there was this humanitarian corridor that was supposed to be set up from ukraine, but there are concerns that the cease-fire was being evaluated -- being violated. peter: when it comes to poland, we hit a new milestone overnight , one million people have crossed from ukraine since the crisis started. 10 days ago. we are seeing more and more people coming in and we are

seeing a huge effort from the population to step up and help them. we are seeing people self organizing, coming together, offering accommodations to ukrainians. what you have to remember is poland already has a huge ukrainian diaspora. there are a million people officially here, and it is the longest land border ukraine has with the eu. it is only natural people are coming here and they are being picked up by loved ones who are living here. but also there is a huge outpouring of support from the population. i am hearing from a lot of people who have already accepted ukrainians, who have ukrainians staying with them. they are getting in touch. people are asking, can you provide clothes for the people i

am hosting? it is incredible to see that. the question is how long and how much capacity poland has. at this point we are seeing gyms and auditoriums being turned into shelters for ukrainians. you also have schools offering afterschool classes for ukrainians and accepting ukrainian kids into classes. the question is what is next? the government so far has also set up reception centers, 23 is the latest count, where people sign up. but there is a new law currently being discussed by the government where part of it will be offering the equivalent of $300 to every family who hosts someone from ukraine. it is a huge effort. the question is how much

capacity does the country still have to deal with that? manus: one of the most heartbreaking sites, the biggest refugee crisis since world war ii. piotr with danny and i this morning coming up, or guest joins us to discuss the sanctions and the implications. plus -- dani: we will be talking about the outlook for crude and implications for the global economy. that conversation with our guest. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani

burger in london with manus cranny in dubai. let's get a check on the markets, it is another manic monday. dealing the pain of the fears of what we are looking at. u.s. stocks falling by 1%. less necessarily isolated from the market issues from ukraine and russia. a 4000 target on s&p 500. there is the fear of stagflation most acute in russia, stocks have fallen by more than 2.5%. we saw the biggest withdrawal of european equities on record. manus: absolutely. gold maximum defensive, that from bank of america. the question through my mind, are we at a could picture larry -- capitulation moment? whether we have moved from a denial phase into a more reality driven moment.

ethics is picking up the slack. that's where liquidity and depth is. you have the ruble imploding. this is not just on of unilateral move from the u.s. much would be a crippling blow to the ruble, but if they move in a unilateral matter, what does it mean for money. the dollar is literally crumbling. and then the dollar picks up the strain, doesn't it? dani: it does. this is fascinating when it comes to the euro. a tragic situation but we have seen talks about capitulation in equities. perhaps we are seeing in the euro based on the capitulation in equities. according to research, you had hedge and large speculators who are net long the euro on march 1. that is a painful move if you were net long the euro. not only have we seen it dip lower parity with the swiss

franc, but euro dollar parity has come into the conversation. goldman sachs writing that the euro, the constructive thesis is off the table while military conflict continues. while we have this conflict, where forecasts, our estimates we had previously, are they useful at all anymore? manus: you have the ecb this week, they will be laser focused on the euro. also the polish central bank. harrowing images of the refugee crisis. the euro at a record low. the ecb meets later in the week. let's have a look at the key risk, stagflation. how do you prepare for and a russian in volatility and explosion in price in wheat, corn, gas, oil. cover at a record high, aluminum at a record high. let's look at the commodities board and you understand what we are grappling with. looking at the inflation risk,

the brent market up 10%. goldman sachs say we are underpricing the supply risk in copper. more on that in a moment. in the oil market, we are higher. dani: we are, surging higher, but we will talk about the outlook for crude and the implications for the global economy later in the show. we will have a conversation with an analyst at pbm oil associates be it -- associates. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "daybreak: europe." russia may have made a coupon payment on its ruble bond last week that it remains to be seen other the foreign bondholders will be able to access the cash. russia's central bank has banned transfers to foreign investors put the executive -- investors.

paul dobson joins us now. it is a delicate balance, avoiding the technicalities of the default. what do we know about russia's ability to service foreign debts? paul: exactly as you put it. in some ways, the question isn't so much russia's ability to service its debts as its willingness to service those debts. the latest we are hearing is it would be permitted to repay debts, including as we understand it, foreign currency in rubles. that would allow it to avoid potentially technical cry of wolf from bondholders over a default. the problem is, the payments could be made in rubles but it is impossible for the rubles to come out of the country at the moment because of the sanctions

and the bands imposed on the russian side as well. if you are a domestic on's holder, you can be paid in rubles. if you are a bondholder from a country not involved in putting sanctions on russia, you can also receive your cash, it seems. but for those bondholders from countries where sanctions are being imposed on russia, the payments are likely to get locked up inside russia and unable to be transferred to bondholders. technically there is a payment made, maybe a default will not be declared, the rating agency seems to be taking a dim view of this. downgrading russia further over the weekend toward junk status -- excuse me, default status. dani: to that point, we have looked at the collapse in the ruble. markets slammed by foreign sanctions. we have russia's stock markets, the moscow exchange, closed at least until tomorrow.

there is a question of do we know how deep the impact is. what do we know so far about the hurt to the russian economy and markets up to this point? paul: i guess the strongest indicator we have is the level of where the ruble is trading. it has come down a long way incredibly quickly over recent trading sessions. we hear based on offshore pricing, indicative levels, we don't have any official pricing, today and tomorrow is a holiday and the exchange won't be providing those services. it is hard to tell exactly where that is. another thing people are using to gain an idea of where russia's markets might be valued is etf's, which have been suspended as well. slowly but surely we are losing track with what market signals could be, but at the same time, investment managers are starting to act on their own in any case, marking the bonds down to zero or thereabouts.

the same with the equities. do we put them into a bad bank, do we put them to one side and leave them in a pocket account? we can't sell them, we can't really own them and we don't know what their value is. very difficult to assess for outside investors at this point. manus: this is something, we get together at about 4:00 a.m. as a team, and there is this dash for cash, isn't there? dani: yes, you're seeing funding spreads more tense. do we have any idea what happens if you are one of these managers? you have a portfolio and you have russian assets in it? you can't trade the sinks, they are liquid and essentially valued at zero. manus: market to market, they've got to be marked to market, they are more lenient in russia in terms of that asset then global regulators will be.

if you marked to market down to zero with an unrealized loss, it has a huge location for asset managers. paul: yeah, it is a pretty horrible situation to be in. quite unprecedented. those asset managers are going to have to make their own decisions about how they value those positions, the good news, relatively good news is the broader portfolio, those tracking emerging-market indexes are global indexes, waiting for russia, is not that enormous. but the funds that have been more focused on russia specifically, it will create headache. a lot of them are returning what cash they can to investors. a lot of them are left holding these assets with no idea what to do with them now. dani: thank you so much. fascinating discussion. our executive editor for asia markets, paul dobson.

manus, to paul's point, banks have also been hit hard over concern to exposure to russia. we got some details this morning. manus: for now, they are saying 200 million dollars of exposure to russian assets secured in financing, that seems to be the lending amount they have out there. they would describe exposure as being limited to russia. this comes as well as we get some of the remunerations side from ubs. so while hammers gets $12 million for 2021. how is the bonus pool? dani: everyone is paying bonuses, trying to stay competitive when it comes to the local market. you probably have better numbers about the bonus pool for ubs. manus: they are up this year and they will grow about 10%.

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manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am manus cranny with dani burger in london. these are the story setting your agenda. dani: oil shocks inflation fears, brent touches $139 as u.s. considers a unilateral ban on russian oil imports. pewter -- vladimir putin repeats the war will not end until his demand are met. a third round of talks may occur today. plus, markets roiled.

the euro drops below parity with the swiss franc. copper and palladium at all-time highs. as we try to figure out the fallout for markets, i've got to know in my inbox over the weekend -- my jaw has never dropped to the extent it did reaching -- reading this research. let me read it to you, let me redo this line. he writes that despite the risk of a nuclear war, it makes sense to stay constructive on stocks, and over the next 12 months. if an icbm is headed your way, the size and composition of your portfolio is irrelevant. that is from a financial perspective. ignore existential risk even if you care about it. he writes, stay lish even though armageddon risks have risen. -- stay bullish even though armageddon risks have risen.

manus: those risks change day by day. emmanuel macron speaking to boudin over the weekend. on a daily basis we try to assess the trajectory of markets. have we capitulated on stocks? bank of america saying we have moved from a denial phase two a more acceptance -- phase to a more acceptance. this could be stagflation. there could be a smaller rate shock with the ecb and fed paring back trajectory of tightening. recession risk is real. cash, largest info in weeks. the bank of america survey, the biggest outflow ever, defined as 2004. dani: this is part of the reason why the euro has been slammed with people pulling money out of

european assets. the euro has lost parity with the swiss franc. let me show you what stocks are doing this morning. european stocks continue to freefall, even worse when it comes to the vax, u.s. futures not falling a significantly, down about 1.5%, but small-cap futures are down the most in the u.s. picture. it is the fear of recession, of stagflation permeating through equities. what about the cross asset boards? manus: just to dovetail what you said, i was reading this morning, someone said a 25% discount -- we will come to the board in a moment. at 25% discount on the analyst targets for europe, we haven't seen this level of distrust, only in the subprime crisis in the u.s., the debt crisis, european debt crisis and early days of the pandemic. what we have is yes these assets

may be deeply discounted, up to 25%, but that doesn't necessarily make them cheap, does it? dani: that is true. to that point, risk reversals on the u.s. dollar, most heavily toward puts since the sovereign debt crisis. we are at the historical level where forecast don't serve you well because they are binary options, where the markets go, where the global conflict goes. manus: let's look at the assets. the ruble imploding. copper at a record high. woman sex -- goldman sachs says we are underestimating the copper market. the ruble is bearing the strain from what could be a crippling blow. the potentially unilateral move by the u.s. to ban russian oil and products in their country. could that be a crippling blow to the russian economy?

and oil as you can see, just under 10% this morning. the u.s. is considering a unilateral ban on russian oil imports, tightening the economic squeeze on president putin. the u.s. secretary of state says discussions are underway while making sure there is still an appropriate supply of oil for the domestic market. >> we are talking to european partners -- talking with european partners and allies to look at a way to ban russian oil while making sure there is an appropriate supply of old oil in world markets. that is an active discussion as we speak. manus: bruce einhorn has been listening to those words and the implications for the oil market. give our viewers a sense of the implications. why is it america might be able to act more unilaterally, because they are not as dependent on russian oil, are they? bruce: correct. the u.s. only imports about 3%

of crude from russia, and when you throw in other products, about 8% from russia. the u.s. has much less dependence on russian oil and gas than european countries. we just heard the u.s. secretary of state saying the u.s. is trying to coordinate european allies. however, we also people familiar with the matter that the biden administration is considering acting unilaterally, not waiting for european allies, people familiar tell us.

we don't know the extent or timing yet of such a ban, but we know that pressure is building politically in the u.s. for this. house speaker nancy pelosi sent a note to lawmakers over the weekend saying the house is going to consider action. we know on the senate side, the number two senator in the democratic caucus, dig durbin, he has -- dick durbin, he has come out in favor of a ban. when you have u.s. senators ranging from elizabeth warren to joe manchin agreeing, it is an indication the pressure is building for the biden administration to do something. it seems likely there is going to be u.s. action sooner, even without europeans on board. dani: bruce, thank you. bruce einhorn keeping us up-to-date on the latest sanctions and potential new sanctions coming from the u.s., going at it alone when it comes to oil. let's talk more about the oil story. our guest joins us. before we get into your oil calls, i want to talk about some of the qualitative things we have experienced. as you talk to clients and the rest of the team at pbm, can you

give us an idea of the state of anxiety and fear as people try to trade will markets? >> good morning. it is set for everyone to see. the market is bullish. and less calmness is restored in ukraine, it will remain so. manus: this market is not bullish, it is ravaged by fear. this is not bullishness, we need to be careful. this is not bullishness, this is sheer fear. tamas: you are absolutely right. but revisiting the highs of 2008 , especially after the latest development of last weekend, namely that the united states are exploring banning imports of

russian crude oil. the other development also pushing prices higher is that the bearish factor in the market was the potential listing -- potential listing of iranian sanctions. but we have learned that this will not hurt russia's trade with tehran. there could be 1.5 million extra barrels of crude in the market, but there is some doubt and we see the reaction of the market. manus: you think iran is part, iran negotiating a settlement which russia is part of, elon musk has already tweeted on this this morning -- to what extent

could iran in a renegotiation of the 2015 deal act as a small opener in this situation. or is that too optimistic? tamas: i think it is a bit too optimistic. if sanctions are listed on iran, they could add 1.5 million barrels per day to the market, but that won't happen for three to four months. meantime, can start selling crude oil from floating storage. but it would not really ease the current situation. dani: on that point, if it won't supply shock, how much further can we go? bank of america said in the worst case of sanctions, it

could go to $200 a barrel. i talked to a guest last week who said $150 a barrel. what are your assumptions in this market? tamas: there are two factors that need to be looked at. the first is the actual supply and the second is panic. we know that russia exports about 5 million barrels per day of crude oil and around 2.5 billion per day. in case of a full-scale sanction on russian crude oil exports, these barrels must be replaced. this would only be a small part of it and therefore the panic

would not ease the market. manus: let's close off with what is the next trigger to these calls to the higher panic premium. $130 this morning and change on brent. let me double check myself. tamas: 139 point 60 at the moment. -- $139.60 at the moment. manus: what needs to happen to take you beyond this panic level we are currently at? tamas: the actual export on russian -- and if it becomes obvious the iranian nuclear deal or potential lifting of

sanctions are drifting further away, until last weekend we were confident the iranian nuclear deal was imminent. if that turns out to be wrong, this work it will rally beyond the highs. manus: ok, let's see where we are, that is tamas varga. coming up, the secretary of state for the united states of america. >> thank you for your remarkable leadership during what is it any stretch of the imagination a remarkable time. each of you is not only living through but acting in and making a huge difference. we focus a lot on the challenges

we are facing right now in this part of the world, in this part of europe, and i've just come from belgium and poland and moldova. there are some big principles at stake as a result of russia's aggression on ukraine. a war of choice, unprovoked, premeditated. we talk a lot about them and it is important to talk about them because is important people understand what is actually at stake. it goes beyond even ukraine, beyond even the baltic countries and beyond even europe. basic principles of international order that came into being after two world wars as a means of trying to keep peace and secured after the world have been torn apart not once but twice. principles like it is not ok for one country to invade another and change its borders by force, not ok for one country to dictate to another its choices, its future, its policies, with whom it can associate.

principles like it is not ok for one country to say the sphere of influence over another, to subjugated to its will. all of that is at stake with russia's aggression. i know you know this because you are seeing this in different ways every day, what is also at stake and gets lost sometimes as we talk about these big principles, are the individual lives and futures at stake. mothers and children we see fleeing across the border from ukraine into poland, to moldova, and other neighboring states, some coming here to lithuania. the husbands, fathers, brothers staying behind to fight. those who are caught in the onslaught by russia shelled to death. we see the images on tv of families torn apart. each and every one of these principles we talk about, it has

a real person behind it in one way or another. what you are doing every single day here with our partner, lithuania, is validating everything we are doing to try to uphold those principles and protect the futures of those men, women and children whose lives are now at stake. i am grateful to the team here for some extraordinary work during this extraordinary time. we have had an increased military presence and the support you've given to our military personnel coming in, the resources coming in as a result of our efforts to strengthen nato's eastern flank, that is making a big difference. there have been more than a few high-level visits. the secretary of defense is here, i am sure others will be coming. the only thing i want to tell you is i know the one benefit of these minutes it -- these is you

get a wheels up party. i read, we consume the work you're doing. tremendous reporting cables on the migration, the economic coercion in lithuania, a whole other subject. in each of these ways big and small, you are making a real difference. one of the things that touch me was learning about some of the folks in our community here who have collected products for ukrainian refugees. some of you i understand skip to recess to do some of that work. packing things so that some kids just like you could know just a little bit of relief in the turmoil they are experiencing. and i just want to reiterate what was pointed to, since the

departure from men's, -- minsk, the two teams have been working so closely together. doing remarkable work promoting democracy in belarus, there and from afar, and it is one mission to locations. -- mission with two locations. finally let me say there is tremendous resilience here in another way to, and i see it around the world. we have all been working through covid. i hope we are getting to the endpoint. back home in washington, we are following washington, d.c. regulations and we just got to take off tasks at the state department. hopefully not far behind. the main state is coming back to life. the cafeteria opening up.

the starbucks coming back, if you know it. we will get there and you will get there too, but i know the last couple of years have been incredibly challenging on a professional and personal level. some of you have been ill, some of you have lost friends and loved ones in one way or another. but you have come together and shown incredible -- dani: the secretary of state speaking at a meet and greet with embassies. he was also at the ukrainian -polish border over the weekend and visiting other countries in the area. he was thinking those there helping ukrainians, putting together care packages. he was also talking about covid and the difficulty of the past two years. back to the russia story, the u.k. has a sanctioned more than 100 russian individuals, including at least 11

billionaires, after russia's invasion of ukraine. the government also under pressure to sanction roman abramovich, a russian billionaire who owns the chelsea football club. manus: he is now selling the club and other properties out of fears of being sanctioned and assets frozen. even before formal measures are introduced. tom mackenzie is outside chelsea football club today. good to see you. i suppose the question is this, we are looking at a gestation today, but how aggressively has the u.k. gone after russian oligarchs? for decades recorded them, welcomed -- courted them and welcomed them. tom: absolutely, and this is one reason why we are outside josie football club, it is -- chelsea football club, it is owned by roman abramovich, he is who you

think about when you think of oligarchs in the u.k. he has other properties around the u.k. as well. he has put the club up for sale. we are hearing from opposition mps that he's also putting a number of properties up for sale as well. the u.k. government have sanctioned 11 russian oligarchs, but not gone as far or fast as european counterparts u.s. counterparts, and that is a problem for a conservative led government that has a history of connections to russian wealth. the u.k. government saying they are going to step up the process in part of it will be around the economic crime bill and there is urgency to do that because london, the u.k. suffering financially from this, about a hundred billion dollars a year in terms of laundered money linked to russia, according to

the national crime registry. about 3 billion pounds linked to those linked to corruption. there is a lot to unpick in a city that is known as londongrad . dani: really fascinating, the bill proposed as early as 2016, that shelved as recently as a month ago, coming back. tom mackenzie, our anchor outside of stanford bridge. to the corporate reaction, netflix and tiktok joining companies pulling back operations in russia. tiktok is suspending livestream's in russia following a new fake news law that could silence dissent. our is this editor joins us. the list keeps growing. bring us up to speed on who we know has pulled out of russia. benedict: good morning.

as you say, the list is endless at this point. a good week into the conflicts. it started with bp, who pulled out, and over the week, companies in every field have joined the mass exodus. we've had netflix, as you said, a company that will lose between 100,000 or maybe one million accounts in russia. samsung, who own about 30% of the russian market, a big business for them. companies in the retail space like nike and apple. some of the biggest corporate names out there are pulling out. in part they are pulling out because they want to send a signal, but also because they simply cannot do business in russia any longer. we have seen the financial community is retreating, we had visa and mastercard pull out, making processing payments harder. it is the push and pull between

wanting to send a signal but also being in a position where business is no longer feasible in russia. manus: what impact you think these moves will have on the russian economy? i had conversations over the weekend with people who are programmers and developers saying i've got microsoft, apple, this application, but it is a one-year license. what will i do after one year? these are real developers in real tech in russia and their fear is a tech implosion. benedict: you are right, this will reverberate across the entire industry. how do you decouple in major economy from the rest of the world? at what point might you come back in? that's one of the things that remains unclear, what is the step to reenter the russian economy? might other companies come in in the meantime, might china see an opening? these are unanswered questions.

the announcement of retreat is one thing, but following through, that is unknown. also how much do you want to hurt normal russians? there was a statement by the uniqlo parent company, saying russians have the right to live as well, why should we neither him food, why should we deny them clothing? there is a small minority of companies saying we want to remain in russia, remain serving the people and the customers. but the majority have pulled out. but at what point they will come back in his out in the open right now. manus: these were fairly normal russian people in dubai that had those conversations with our editor. benedict there on a blockade of western products. we have rejoined the line in

terms of inflation stock, the potential for stagflationary scare. brent up by 9%. we were higher this morning. you're looking at some of the biggest moves in the oil markets since 2014. this is the reverberation. copper at a record high, heating oil up as well. dani: the commodities column, those black boxes on your terminal indicate it is at least a three standard deviation move. it shows you how concerned we are without russia's supply. it supplies 17% of global national -- natural gas. the fears are real. europe trading at a 2020 located manus: just a reminder, 10% rise in brent in 2008.

$147.50. the risk is a unilateral move by the u.s. to embargo russian oil. that could cause a trigger to a move to the upside. dani: it is a fear we are grappling with. we will continue to monitor. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: good morning and welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe." the cash trade is less than an hour away. oil shock. brent and wti sort and the u.s. considers a unilateral ban on russian oil imports. the third round of talks between russia and ukraine may happen today. less markets royal