going up. >> price rises continue. >> it puts us in a difficult position that we cannot look for interest rates falling. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: the bloomberg terminal lighting up. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. i'm jonathan ferro alongside tom , keene and lisa abramowitz. a move in crude yesterday evening. tom: it is across all of the bloomberg terminals. it goes 1.40, which is stunning. the moment we are in for the markets need maximum focus. jonathan: the administration is speaking openly about it, perhaps a ban on russian crude. tom: the political side of it is

very important. yet the tragedy and human cost in ukraine but we are missing it through the markets. i hesitate to use the word instability rather than mass uncertainty. jonathan: where do we get the supply from? we could have a delegation that says, please can we have more. lisa: a lot of people have been waiting for this as the u.s. has been working on some type of iranian deal. which could just make a difference, it is not just oil. it is we. one person on twitter -- it is also wheat. jonathan: and the banks as well. the banks in europe down almost 5%. this is a daily. every single day they turn lower and lower.

tom: there is just a rationalization forward. ubs and the team over there put out a careful note on europe and they say this is an income statement shock they have yet to see that it is a balance sheet shock. you get massive revenue and earning declines. jonathan: switzerland. lisa: you see the same trend with euro losing and falling to the lowest on the dollar go back to the pandemic. at what point will europe diverge for the worse? look at natural gas prices. jonathan: thursday cpi in america 8:30, and then catherine lagarde. can you frame that for us? tom: i am saying call him down

-- calm down. lagarde has to wait 48 hours before she has any framework for what the ecb can do. jonathan: i would love to see you tell president lagarde to quote calm down. good morning to you. really big moves that we need to take care of. futures down 1.7% on the s&p, nasdaq down by 1.8. brent at one point seemingly closing in on 140. wti 1.32 come almost 6%. -- wti 1.3 two, almost 6%. -- wti 1.3 2%, almost 6%.

-- wti 1.32, almost 6%. lisa: how much do we see some offramp? we are not seeing an offramp diplomatically but are we seeing an offramp for the average heavily -- average gasoline prices? four dollars here in the u.s. for the first time going back to 2008. we have been talking about the end of the pandemic. some school mask mandates in new york city and new jersey being lifted. this seems to be almost a given. no one is worried about the pandemic but this could end up being negative because it will cause more demand for oil which could exacerbate the shock we are seeing in the commodities sector. how much can consumers offset the inflationary outlet as well

as decrease in fiscal support with the idea of borrowing more money? jonathan: on friday afternoon coming into the weekend, the bloomberg team in washington reported this administration was actively considering a ban on russian crude. over the weekend, secretary blinken confirmed yes. secretary blinken: we are talking to european partners and allies to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of russian oil while making sure there is still an appropriate supply on world markets. that is an active discussion. jonathan: team coverage starts now. the latest, please? annmarie: the administration may be working closer to doing this unilaterally because it doesn't seem as though the europeans are able to do this with immediate effect. i spoke to a senior official yesterday and it was said that

the talks are happening but washington can do this more weakly and the political pressure is pounding. the number of lawmakers with president zelensky. we heard from speaker pelosi on sunday. it is a matter of when, not if. tom: maria taddeo, what is europe doing today to provide military stuff to ukraine? maria: we know there is a very active operation happening, particularly through poland. they are going into help on the refugee front but also on weapons. it is difficult to figure out how many weapons are in and who is sending what. they are not putting out this information ugly because they want to you protect -- information because they want to protect ukraine. deliveries are happening.

to pick up on the oil conversation, we know that anthony blinken will need latvia, and was in poland yesterday. if you want to speak to european countries that want to see a ban on european -- russian oil, you need those countries. we know that friday the lithuanian president said let's just banned it completely. lisa: natural gas futures in europe have surged to a new record. it does not look like a chart of a commodity. it looks like you are looking at bitcoin during the height of the mania. what is this pricing in? is it just a matter of time before this is cut off? maria: it shows that nobody wants to touch it. for investors, it is hard to navigate whether or not you have

this in your hands especially when there is an ongoing question of sanctions. i would also point to -- who said we have an ongoing conversation for more sanctions. the impression i get is that by friday when european leaders meet in paris will be something that looks like a new package. whether it contains energy to its full remains the question. jonathan: we could spend time talking about the contradictions of this administration and energy. it is more important to talk to riyadh and saudi arabia. do they really deserve the title given what is going on right now and what they are not doing? annmarie: they are not releasing

the supplies. there are a number of issues the saudis would want to be addressed before they start to do that. one, where is this relationship going between the united states and saudi arabia. president biden had said on the campaign trail he wanted to make saudi arabia a pariah. the saudis want to go -- know what is going on with the iranian nuclear deal. that may change how much supply they bring to the market. and what is going on with the banning of russian crude? is it just going to be the united states? they need clarity before they decide what they will do. jonathan: headlines coming from the german government from a spokesperson. russian crude can't easily be replaced in europe. the second headlight greens, we are against entering into the

next sanctions spiral. -- the second headline reads, we are against entering into the next sanctions spiral. tom: i look at nickel and it is unique in that it has a little bit to do with canada and a lot to do with russia. we need russian nickel. it is gone through four standard deviations and it is off the radar. jonathan: go through energy, metals, green, green. lisa: an amazing rally through the commodities complex. these assets have not been sanctioned yet. the loopholes the likes of shell has to go through to buy discounted russian oil which i did on friday tells you everything you need to know. they released a statement about extensive talks. jonathan: they were almost

apologizing for it. this is the change we have seen. in the beginning it was how do we hurt them and insulate ourselves and then it became a moral question -- do we have a moral obligation to step away from all things russian, crude, is this? those are the questions people are asking in the business world. tom: the complexity of this intangible assets, i love the idea from credit suisse over the weekend on the business and awkwardness of the markets. do i really want to offer my nickel? jonathan: the market is down by 1.7% on the s&p, nasdaq down by 1.8. crude 122, up 6%. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> russian forces have stepped

up nighttime shelling. north and south of ukraine according to a ukrainian official. that comes as an evacuation comes for a second day. ukrainian official say russia has violated a temporary cease-fire to allow the passage of civilians. more talks could happen today. as foreign minister's play a role in keeping the conflict from ukraine from conflict in, on the sidelines in beijing, the foreign minister was asked why china hasn't acknowledged vladimir putin's actions amounted to an invasion? >> the situation in ukraine has become what it is today for a variety of complex reasons. what is needed to solve complex issues is a cool head and rational mind, not adding fuel

to the fire. >> china will soon offer your assistance to ukraine. looking at a bill that would ban the import of russian crude and that could add to economic pressure on russia. the biden administration said to be thinking about making the move on its own if they cannot get european allies on board initially. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> a no fly zone has become a

catchphrase. i don't think people understand what it means. it is a willingness to shoot down the aircrafts of the russian federation which is basically the beginning of world war iii. jonathan: senator marco rubio there. nasdaq down by 1.9%. considering whether the administration in america will go through with a russian crude ban and whether the europeans will join them. the euro-dollar very close to breaking 1.08. germany planning credit help for companies with russian ties. that coming from the government moments ago. turkey, russia, ukraine, the foreign ministers from those countries meeting in turkey march 10. tom: on the mediterranean coast,

a lovely town in the southeast of istanbul. we will see a lot of that. can i show you a banner that is already out of date? russian depreciation has been stunning from 76 out to 135, that is no longer true. now to 1.40. it is a moving target. jonathan: unreal. tom: massive weakness. i want to rip up the script you have the advantage. she is as exquisite on commodities honey for the analysis of halima croft into your equity work? >> i am fortunate to be working with her. in december they do panels and i

was fortunate to be on a number of these with her and she had been warning us there was going to be a problem with russia and ukraine to start the year. it is not that we necessarily grasp how bad this will be but we had an inkling that this was coming. i have been able to operate through this environment and i have been not been as reactive to the news. tom: how have you changed your allocation given what you had with halima croft? lori: on how bullish getting. we have also been talking about how we expected the market to pivot back to growth stocks and one of the reasons is we saw growth expectations and this

raises the risk that we bring that raining in of expectations earlier than anticipated. that helped us stay steady. lisa: is this a viable dip? lori: i don't know if you want to buy it today. it doesn't necessarily push us into a recession but makes us feel like we will hit one. markets tend to fall 14% and we haven't done that yet. lisa: you said it could make everyone feel like we are going into a recession and we are not. what are you looking at for the resilience that could potentially to plover should the commodity surge continue?

lori: the silver lining of coming out of this pandemic is that we have this economic barometers we have been living and breathing for the last couple of years because of covid. we are still seeing improving trends, return to work in the process of recovering and has a way to go. none of these are showing signs of slowing down so we have to keep on -- an eye on the resiliency. jonathan: this may sound country to to -- counterintuitive. is there a point where oil goes so high the energy stops with it? lori: i don't think there are any easy answers to that question in terms of where that exact level is. we would have thought we would have already seen it by now. we have to counterbalance the oil price impact with the

psychological impact of reopening and many consumers eager to get back to their lives. we are seeing resilience and eagerness to get back to normal. there will be a point at which that won't hold up but all i can tell you is we haven't hit it yet. jonathan: thank you. wonderful as always. that is the big issue, at what point do we introduce that dynamic and then we have a different story on our hands? tom: this goes back to frank knight and peter bernstein in his great book. this is about risk, can we measure it or the unmeasurable uncertainty? we are drowning in uncertainty, whether politics in the headlines or market reaction. to your point on eu banks, the price moves are not constructive. jonathan: banks heading south, energy heading north. occidental exit duly -- raising

yesterday. lisa: at what point do we get to a place where high oil prices and what it will do to the short and medium-term in demand. and the recession like environment you are seeing period wonder whether this is significant, because the fed can't do that much what will the fed do with this? jonathan: another dynamic for crude players, it is becoming very awkward for them. when we get the reports, the backlash against that will be tremendous. the statement that the shell statement over the weekend explaining themselves as to why they brought russian crude even though legally they can buy russian crude. that tells you the moment we are in at the moment. tom: we see it in aluminum as well. i would go to nickel. indonesia, philippines but

russia hugely dominant in nickel your it is not clearly in the reading over the weekend. it is just a clean toggle switch for these companies. the nissan headlines where they are phasing out. jonathan: a quiet period for the fed. they don't have to speak. that is good news from -- for them. lisa: could they really say anything to shift the conversation right now because the market is looking beyond the fed to economic fundamentals that look like they are deteriorating as oil prices go higher. jonathan: we sat yesterday and waiting for the opening of crude here brent at 1.25, close to 1.40, 6%. i don't think the bond market knows what to do with this. 10 years unchanged. euro-dollar, closing in at 1.08, down .8%.

as we strip out the prospect of the ecb hiking, european banks down, negative by 4% and just off session lows. from new york on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. futures down. the nasdaq down why 1.7%. and of the round of talks by ukraine and russia scheduled for today. expectations very low. that is the equity story, down softer in europe. to the bond market, the relationship between commodities and treasuries peered weekend talk about levels and talking about -- treasuries. . we can talk about levels. this conversation around treasury gets more complex and complicated from here what did the moves in rent crude and wti up 6% mean for that

conversation? lisa: there has been a big debate about whether higher oil prices is inflationary our distillation area. -- disinflationary. this is a complicated and very delicate picture. jonathan: you see inflation everywhere you look. let's talk about euro swiss, unchanged. if you take this back to 2015, you remember that. euro swiss with a break in parity as we start to think about an ecb that cannot get away from negative interest rates. it is about the interest rate story. the industry group down by 4%. tom: i emphasize the importance of switzerland as they, the you trolley -- the neutrality

statement and the idea of second-round effects from the civil we are sintering. there are a fax we are considering. -- that we are considering. jonathan: the euro switch -- euro swiss parity is with there are talking about. tom: it is an extremely difficult thread to put to the needle. ian bremmer, founder of eurasia group, i will read you a single sentence from this year. if putin doesn't get concessions from the u.s. led west, he is likely to act. one of the tao -- top group. -- top risk from ian bremmer and

his group. what does the economy look like in two or three years ian:. two or three years? ian: putin is a pariah in terms of the events and economies of the world, the g7. when you have the chinese government saying the relationship with russia is like a rock, that means you are going to see far more integration of russia into the chinese economic network, both in terms of the technology that supports the military industrial complex for

russia, financial transactions that allow them to function as an advanced economy and also the energy flows and infrastructure in terms of oil production also eventually for gas moving towards china. russia will also be working with other developing countries around the world, india, resid. -- india, brazil. tom: how do we move from 2008 in bucharest where the united states was bagged at to sell democracy to the far east -- was bagged -- beggesd not sell democracy to the far east. ian: it is seen by china as past

sell date. it means we are in a hybrid system. it is competitive. the big question i have here is not about russia, because russia has been steadily losing for decades now but rather whether or not technologies which are top down, the data and surveillance economy actually facilitates authoritarian consolidation and also undermines civil society in ways that can't be redressed. back in 2008, technology was something we thought of as supporting democracy and undermining authoritarian states. think about how it was the soviet union collapsed and the arab spring, and those are in the rearview mirror now. technology is what allows the chinese to oppress a million

uighurs. they can monitor and police the behavior of every single citizen. if the russians can do that and other economies can do that, it is a challenge to american democracy. lisa: a lot of people are hoping for the band with to worry about selling democracy. people are worried about selling wheat, nickel, aluminum, corn, and soybean oil. what we are seeing is china coming out over the weekend and saying that domestic sizing food production -- domestic sizing of food production is an issue. how much are we seeing and mast equalization -- mass deglobalization of our economy? ian: i'm glad you brought up the grain when you have the largest grain producer invading the fifth-largest grain producer. you would think he would have

big food problems. coming off of the pandemic, property going up after years of decreases. you will see a spike in starvation around the world. yes in afghanistan but in sub-saharan africa. when you have pigs in europe and the united states fighting for grain supply that will allow wealthy people in the world to eat the meat they want competing with people in the poorest countries in the world that can't buy the grain for themselves, you can see the globalization of the world that had been leading to an increased global middle class is now unwinding, especially on the back of this crisis which the russia-ukraine invasion will be worse for global poverty, in my view, then when all is said and

done than the pandemic. lisa: how will this rearrange the economic outlook as we know it? ian: it is going to increase inequality because when you have massive supply chain challenges and when you have energy price spikes, it doesn't affect nearly as much the wealthy around the world who had the ability to move their assets and have the ability to change their lives. the events -- the advanced economies can do more the emerging markets have more debt on their book after years of crisis and now don't have more flexibility to help their populations. this is a massive shock to imports.

if you are on the other side of the trade you will be hurt dramatically. tom: let's talk about the post putin world. i read a lot about mr. putin's defense minister who never served as a professional army guy, what does the post world look like for russia? ian: we have no idea if it will be in 20 years or 20 days. it is important to recognize that the likelihood of removing putin from power is extremely low until the moment that it happens. so it is not useful to speculate and when it could happen but important to understand that the pressure is there. that leads to more erratic behavior domestically for putin himself who in the last week has been taking all sorts of measures to create a north korea style police state that just doesn't work well for a country

of relatively educated 150 million digit he healed he -- digitally literate. a lot of urban younger russians do not believe what is been put out and many have been arrested for nonviolent protests against the war as the economy starts to literally implode in the coming days and you don't find goods on shelves and you have to ration and people don't get wages, some will turn violent and the russians will repress it. we have to consider one of the only ways this potentially gets resolved in the near term is if you have a dramatic discontinuity in russia itself. that is hard to plan for in a country with 5000 nuclear weapons. jonathan: thank you as always, ian bremmer therefrom eurasia group.

the headline across the bloomberg moments ago, pricing down at 80%. this complicates it. i will read the second paragraph of a story. it reads as follows, authority -- authority said that russians will not do business with those hostile in rubles. the countries include the u.s., u.k., and eu members. this has gotten so complicated so quickly. lisa:, kadant in order to avoid a default and read -- complicated in order to avoid a default. jonathan: i can't get up to speed on who can get paid and who will get paid on which debt. it is confusing. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: from news around the

world, the european union taking action to ensure the safety of ukraine's nuclear power plants, two of which have been seized by invading russian forces. the energy agency urged moscow to give control back to ukraine. a decree by vladimir putin will allow russian companies to pay creditors in rubles. it establishes temporary rules making payments to creditors from countries that "engage in hostile activities against russia." russian corporate bonds plunged in recent days. a teenager from florida who was tracking elon musk has set his sights on russian yachts.

he is tracking yachts of russian oligarchs and russians delete following the invasion. gdp goal of 5.5 percent of this year, the higher end of estimates and quicker than the 4.8 expense -- 4.8%. increasing infrastructure investments. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are now talking to european partners and allies to look in a coordinated way about

the prospect of banning the import of russian oil while making sure there is an appropriate supply on markets. jonathan: was that admission, a strategic mistake question mark antony blinken on cnn. teachers down by 1.4% peardon nasdaq down by 1.5% -- down by 1.4%. the nasdaq down by 1.5%. some of this was like watching meme stocks take off. strange in between moment where the administration has admitted they are considering it sending crude higher, at the same time russian crude man so ultimately russia is ending better prices. tom: we will have to see. it is a story in motion.

we know it is about the markets and the markets have stunning price rises in oil. i guess somebody is making money going up. who is taking the losses right now? >> you and i when we go to the petrol station. we will pay more. consumers will be suffering. prices are high. it is not just the oil. i am also worried about the price of natural gas, higher today we get confused about the different measures of natural gas prices. the price of gas in europe is about $450 a barrel. tom: you start your book on the

swashbucklers in the moment. who takes the loss? is it eu banks, commodity traders in tangibles like oil and wheat? who takes the losses within the financial system? javier: in the financial system, some traders have taken losses. utilities have taken big losses right now and will continue in the days and weeks to come. what worries me is that, do we add in a situation that we are about to see something breaking? some of the commodity traders, a very difficult situation to handle or they will face calls and we don't know how they will handle it. jonathan: can we fix things before they break?

what frustrates you more, the european governments or the lack of a response from the oil patch, private companies in america and from governments like saudi arabia and riyadh? javier: you will have to restrain me. all of that is getting me absolutely mad. i understand the u.s. oil industry and he say that you're going to help. from the administration, i don't know what they were thinking yesterday. you don't make an announcement that you are considering putting a ban on experts on the third-largest exporter unless you have everything lined up. what we are getting is russia is continuing to pump oil and we are giving it higher prices.

so the kremlin is making a lot more money than on friday. lisa: is any of it surprising? we knew they were considering further sanctions, including oil and gas. shell example find this over the weekend, making apologies almost four buying discounted crude from russia. how much would change the on the ground reality if these sanctions were to go into law? javier: i think it will change significantly the situation. despite sanctioning, everything through the pipeline and all the natural gas is flowing. more gas flowing into the european union then was flowing before the invasion of ukraine. it will change the situation on the ground. if everyone in the market were speculating on the discussion, it is difficult to speculate

that you have the secretary of state on the record saying this is a discussion and not only a discussion for the united states government but with europe. lisa: a lot of people have pointed out that rush only accounts for 3% of employee -- of imports to the united states. javier: it is about the alliance with europe. the number is higher because you are right that it is 3% for crude but when we include the refined it goes to 8%, which is a significant number. the knighted states imported more refined products from russia than they did from saudi arabia. i don't think anyone in the united states would say -- it is going to be untenable to continue to import oil. jonathan: do you think it would make a difference if the president got on the phone and had a meeting with the ev

players and talked about increasing production? would that make a difference? javier: the president needs to do that and bring the oil industry in. the oil industry will need the support. let's be clear, the u.s. shale industry cannot replace russia. they cannot replace alone russia we will need other countries to help. the thing i consider the most urgent that policymakers need to do, not only for president biden but for policymakers in europe, is they need to talk to the nation and prepare them that this is going to be painful, economically difficult for the

next few days and weeks but it is something needed because of the invasion in ukraine. they have not prepared public opinion for what is coming. public opinion will see it. gas prices are going up quickly. jonathan: javier blas of bloomberg opinion. the chart that catches this conversation is a 12 month chart of european gas. and the twin peaks of that chart , the pressure going into christmas and the back end of december and look at the move to the top right, a double shock in several months. tom: this is the standard deviations. the pros look at the percent movement of roughly 20 days, the standard deviation. here is the answer, we move from two standard deviations of many indices and four standard deviations, i call that a

medical chart. these are like medical charts in a hospital. jonathan: crude higher by more than 6%, approaching seven percentage points higher on wti, one point 23. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> volatility we are seeing is something that gives people pause. >> you are dealing with growth slowing and inflation going up. >> we will see price surprises continuing for quite some time. >> it puts investors in a difficult position that we can't really look to interest rates falling. >> the market is saying that the fed may overdo it. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: crude absolutely surging. from new york city, good morning. for our audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures off the lows. crude off the highs. wti, $123. tom: right now, oil coming up a little bit. i am using dollar-ruble as the russian litmus paper. one thing i do want to mention as wgo