>> all of the focus is on the russia-ukraine situation, which clearly leads to a flight to quality. >> we knew this was a growth scare that makes everyone feel like we are going to hit one. >> what we have is a potential he stagflationary shock. >> the long end drags on. i think the more economic damage it will do. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on radio, on television, and even for tuesday.

diplomacy in europe. the reality of what markets signal. any number of ways to go here. i will go with oil, $126 a barrel on brent. jonathan: the next step for the u.s. administration, and active conversation about banning the import of russian energy. the germans said no. would they go alone and fly solo with other european allies? that is the conversation this morning. tom: some of that may be with great britain as well. prime minister johnson, and i would suggest motto support of -- i would suggest modest support of what the president is dealing with. jonathan: president biden and perhaps this country can handle it. the europeans likely, after they have said no, i would be very surprised if they came along for the ride this morning, wouldn't you? tom: i wonder what mr. blinken will say to mr. macron later in the european afternoon. we should see that into or three hours.

i look at the marketing of the difficulty of yesterday. jonathan: this curve and certain segments of it getting flatter. that spread between fives and tens getting tiger, and all of this going into cpi thursday morning, where we look for inflation in america coming close to 8%. tom: we will touch on this with lisa shalett. i look at the bond market, i look at the dynamics, and then there's the actual call of that auction you mentioned, a three year auction today, and america is the capital markets of last resort. lisa: it goes to the question of what does the fed do in this very difficult moment, talking about slowing into an economic sector. at the same time you're dealing with the idea of inflation that is accelerating for all the wrong reasons. how much are repricing and some sort of recession.

how much are we actually pricing in these bands? that is really one of the big questions today. tom: we are sort of jaded by it, but we are seeing an original moment in finance history. for our audience, it is not sophisticated. for the sophisticates, this is a huge deal. jonathan: what we understand is the chinese tycoon who is now facing reportedly, according to our boarding, billions of dollars in market to market losses, trading up 170% in just two days. the lme has had to basically shut down trading. one of its brokers faced a margin call from sea cpi that is

not paid the outstanding margin calls. this takes a lot of time to untangle. it is unraveling for our very eyes in real time. tom: let's do the data here. leslie venture murray -- leslie vinjamuri will give us a view in a moment. right now, what is your data? jonathan: we've got to work this one out because this is difficult. corporations are making the call to pull back from russian energy. shell a great exhibit of that early this moaning. the germans do not support that effort. where does the of adminstration go? that is going to be our focus through today, through this week, until we get a final decision from the white house. tom: our european team focused on the secretary of state traveling from estonia to france as we speak. lisa shalett is the chief investment officer at morgan

stanley wealth management. what have you changed in your outlook given the 13 days war in ukraine? lisa s: that is an interesting question because because it is moving at lightning speed, and markets have done so along with it. what i think has staggered us the most is that for all of that volatility, we are not in that different of a place on the u.s. stock indices. we have moved maybe 1% or 2%, and though i think the biggest thing that has been shocking to us is that to your point, these scenarios of stagflation, of the probability of recession going up have not have a more severe impact on u.s. equity markets, so i think that is what surprised us. to be honest, we had been on the more bearish side coming into

this, so to a certain extent, we are still meeting for the market to come to us and discount a little bit more of a severe economic slowing both from the perspective of lower corporate earnings, but also with higher risk premiums, which means lower price-earnings multiples. jonathan: let's start with the earnings multiples and get to the earnings story. do you think it takes away discretionary spending from elsewhere, or do we start to see a lifting credit? what does it mean for how you allocate capital around the consumer in america? lisa s: we know that gas prices historically are a tax on consumers. this time will not be different. what is unfortunate is that most forecasters, including us, were

expecting a pretty significant resurgence in the services side of the economy come spring and summer, as we are getting beyond the worst of covid. we were expecting a huge pickup in things like travel and vacation linked items. i think that is really going to be one of the areas where we see the severe impacts of these kind of energy prices, particularly if they are persistent. our call to own consumer services has really had to become a lot more muted, and that is where our concern is scum on consumer behavior. -- is on consumer behavior. lisa a:lisa a: rates may not go lower in response to the shocks, but the opposite. that is what i number of people are considering with that still seven rate hike call over at bank of america.

how's the expectation for yields as negative real yields don't seem to mickey difference right now for this risk sector? lisa s: the fed is in an incredibly tough position, and our sense is they absolutely have to get off the zero bound if for no other reason then they need some dry powder to do something in the next six months, if in fact we have a recession. i know this sounds perverse, but they kind of have to give themselves some room while they still can. we are in the camp that says powell has got to stick to his guns so he can get at least two or three hikes in before the fourth quarter. that is nowhere near the 6% or 7% that were -- the six or seven that were discounted, but i

think what this really puts into question is whether they can do balance sheet action because as we know, when you have these kind of huge spikes in commodity prices, it really has an impact on global dollar liquidity. we had been in the camp that says he's really got to start working that balance sheet down. the question is whether they can do anything on this balance sheet. jonathan: thank you as always. a tough time for anyone trying to work in this equity market and work out the future here. looking ahead to thursday, these are the estimates. mike for only at j.p. morgan goes with 8%. morgan stanley, allens and are at the team go with 8%. as in harris and bank of america at 7.9%. the median is 7.8%. some really well-known figures on wall street looking for an 8%

handle. tom: and then we will see from there. i guess i really wonder, does the inflation report matter anymore because it is such old news? jonathan: we ignored payrolls friday. will we ignore a percent in america? lisa a: except that it is a starting point instead of an ending point. a lot of people thought we would see peak oil prices, peak energy, peak inflation, and that is obviously off the table right now. tom: i want to be careful here because we don't do technical analysis on "surveillance," but the fact is i am go to do it. oil coming off the bottom of yesterday is making a series of higher lows. that is not an opinion, that is a fact. jonathan: the year-to-date move now up 62% your to date. on wti, up 63%. there's the move.

the president of the united states set to ban u.s. imports of russian crude as soon as today. the headline from our team at bloomberg, the president of the united states set to ban u.s. imports of russian crude as soon as today. here is the important additional headline. the u.s. will do this without the participation of european allies. the president, according to sources, said two imports of european crude -- of russian crude as soon as today, without the participation of european allies. crude up by 2.7%. standing by, amh down in d.c. walk us through it. annmarie: it is pretty obvious, given the fact of the administration has come under an immense amount of pressure. need to remember these imports of russian oil and other petroleum products are already on a massive low into the united

states because already the market for six days, market participants have been shutting these assets. they do not want to deal with what is now considered putin's toxic assets. already this was happening in the industry, and now the u.s. is putting a stamp on it. the more interesting part is that this is them acting unilaterally, and the sense that we did have canada also do this, but canada imports so little because they are a major producer. this would put more pressure on europe, which at the moment cannot survive without russian fossil fuels. lisa: walk us through the details of exactly what they are going to be banning, how long it is going to last, whether it is retroactive. what are the logistics of putting through a ban like this unilaterally, given the fact that it may account for 8% of refined goods and other petroleum products. annmarie: also in this ban is

lng", but oil is the most this is lng and cold -- is lng and coal, but oil is the most important one. for a while, this was a huge feet and win for the kremlin. president putin has wanted to kill u.s. shale, part of the reason why they were so almost reckless and sense of the price war during the pandemic in 2020, and then they were just exuberant, the fact that the united states was accepting russian crude even over a key saudi ally. symbolically this is very important. unsure of how long this could last, but in the sense that you have seen similar sanctions on other fossil fuel products from the likes of venezuela and iran. tom: let me make clear, the president bands russian oil. we just see moments ago the spike up to a $127 and $128

would be a breach of the intraday high. we are not there yet. jonathan: we have not had that official announcement just yet. that will happen as soon as today and without the per dissipation of european allies. let's talk about that with crude at $127. there was consideration going into the weekend that the american administration, if they were to make this decision, they would have to consider that if others did not participate, they would be hurting themselves without actually hurting the russian economy. how does that calculus stack up this morning? annmarie: the issue is that any imports russia would have been sending to the united states, they will find buyers now given how high-priced crude is, potentially mostly to asia. had alexander novak coming out and basically saying that yesterday, deputy prime minister to president putin, their chief energy diplomat, until he was appointed deputy prime minister. he is a cheap opec-plus

negotiator and he came out on russian television yesterday with some fiery words, almost threatening to use nord stream one against the europeans, which is flowing every day to heat european homes, but also saying the united states and others refuse our oil, we have other places to send them, and likely other places to send them is going to be china, which we even saw during the pandemic start to hoard fossil fuels. tom: in your world, there will be a balance of politics, and the politics is basically let's produce more oil. there is another side which says we have a long-term commitment to climate, to esg. how will that play out in the next 24 hours? annmarie: this administration is going to want to emphasize the esg part or the sense that we should be putting more money towards things like solar, wind, nuclear, the technology that the unit states has that could potentially mean less reliance on oil, just to have a cleaner

energy grid. people say this in ministries and has not been welcoming to the fossil fuel industry the way the prior administration was, and they are blaming the administration when it comes to higher prices at the gas pump. lisa: when we talk about a meeting with those oil and shale producers at some point in the near future. annmarie: i have not heard anything about a meeting. when you had executives come in, the president was flanked by them come but in my reporting i do know that there have been individuals in the administration talking to the shale patch, talking to u.s. producers about this. it is not like there has not

been communication. that would be false. jonathan: crude right now, $124 on wti, brent at 100. 28 -- at 128 dollars. the president set two imports of russian oil as soon as today. they will do that without european allies. we heard repeatedly they will not participate. i want to be very specific about this in your reporting. i think it is important to reiterate and go over again. is this just russian crude or russian oil products, russian energy products? one makes up 3% of u.s. imports, as you have repeatedly indicated. which is it? annmarie: all i know is the language is oil at this moment. i'm not sure if it is going to include oil products because it is very hard sometimes to differentiate how some of these oil products actually look very close to one barrel of crude, so

we are still waiting on a little bit more details on that. and you are right because it is a big difference. 3% is hard-core crude. 8% encapsulates everything, all of those other petroleum products, which is a lot larger of a number than 3%. but we should repeat, for days the industry is shunning these assets coming into america. refiners don't want it. you have very hard to get ships to go get it. shell saying they will also not buy. now the administration is busily solidifying something that has been already happening for days in the physical market. jonathan: very true. great reporting to you and the team down in washington. thank you. that bloomberg exclusive, according to people familiar with the matter, the biden administration poised to impose a ban on u.s. imports of russian energy as soon as today without the participation of european

allies. this is what the market looks like off the back of it, down 0.1% on the nasdaq -- down 0.1%, on the nasdaq down 0.5%. brent crude approaching 100 $30. the europeans not in the mix. russian oil, liquefied natural gas and coal, according to two people familiar with the decision. the decision was made in consultation with european allies, who rely more heavily in the u.s. does on russian energy. that is the situation. tom: the next technical breach for brent crude is a $131 print. we did get that spike earlier, but just for a brief moment. we have a perfect cast to follow from the work of annmarie hordern in washington. leslie vinjamuri of chatham house, i want to go to the

special relationship which is great britain and the united states. prime minister johnson, can he, should he join president biden in this kind of blockage of russian hydrocarbons? leslie: leslie: i think -- leslie: i think prime minister johnson will wish to do that. certainly the u.k. is less dependent on russian energy than other european economies. i think that the u.k. wanted to stand very tall along the united states, a symbolic appeal that boris johnson gets from this is significant. being able to demonstrate a sanction, that the u.k. won't pay as strong a price for, but the u.k. is also continuing to pull together with europe, so i think there is a very real possibility that the u.k. does follow. tom: does the biden action when we hear the announcement touch upon nord stream one or the

development of nord stream 2? can you link them together, or are they discrete? leslie: the announcement is interesting for a couple of reasons. to go beyond your point, the consensus in the u.s. was very different, very much less. there are some more cynical who think the republicans are pushing because they can blame the democrats and president biden for increases and spikes at the gas tanks and gas prices. again, the u.s. says, as with the u.k. -- the u.s. is, as with the you can, very independent of russian gas supplies.

they have taken a hard line on these issues perhaps to drive europe to come on board. that seems increasingly likely. lisa: in terms of the american leadership in taking charge here in leading the way, i wonder what the response is to china's suppose it exploration of buying stakes in commodity companies in russia, and gas companies, in coal companies, in anything that could shore up their security. does that create a quagmire for the united states in some capacity for that alliance? leslie: there's no doubt that russia has not taken a public position, has not condemned russia for its violation of ukraine's sovereignty, and it is enabling russia to survive economically by providing options. at the same time we know that

china doesn't like this kind of instability. the question i think for all of us is whether it will be quietly pursuing diplomacy to try to move on to some sort of cease-fire and negotiated settlement, but right now it looks like russia is doubling down on his partnership in a way that really weakens the impact of western sanctions. lisa: we are seeing that rally continue after the announcement of the plans the united states administration has on certain russian crude products. i am curious from your perspective about how much political clout this will give president biden in terms of what you were talking about, the fact that sony people are willing to absorb the cost of this in higher gas prices in order to stop the ukrainian more. -- the ukrainian war. leslie: i think the images of

ordinary people suffering, being killed, well over a million refugees, those images are really playing to the consciousness of the american people. there is very strong public support for taking a hard line. it is not entirely the same between republicans and democrats, but it is very strong. the question is if this conflict continues for a very long time, will that unity breakdown, especially as inflation continues? i think there is very strong support for taking a hard line. the brutality is unparalleled, it is very significant, and americans are seeing it on their televisions. jonathan: leslie, thank you for being with us. crude 100 when he for dollars on wti, approaching $128 on brent. the stories from washington, d.c., the biden administration

poised to impose a ban on russian imports of energy. that will happen without european allies. tom: as you mentioned, lng and cold in there as well, and we will see those announcements. i think the market reaction is pretty much expected in a little bit of a lift to crude. maybe we will see more when the president speaks, but it is day 13 of this war. we hear from the united states. we heard from shall -- from shell. we heard from lme. we haven't heard from russia much. jonathan: bear in mind the journey we have been on here. on friday, the low of the session was $109. we had a story in the afternoon from here at bloomberg that this is something the administration was thinking about. we had confirmation they were thinking about it over the weekend. we had a huge move off the back of that, and now we add to it again.

lisa: the question is, hasn't fully been priced in for what gets announced for a further upside move from here? jonathan: we are reporting that it could be announced as soon as today. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: futures up .1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq up .4%. crude $124 on wti. rent at $128. the report from washington, the blighted administration poised to impose a ban on u.s. import of russian oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal. that announcement could come as soon as today. it will happen without the participation of european allies. tom: with great britain as well. it will be interesting to see how prime mr. johnson reacts. jonathan: a very different

dependency for europe versus united states and the u.k.. no indication about whether it is about the u.k.. it is more about germany. the germans have been clear. for the market we have a move. not a major move. congress was pushing in this direction and have been open about having this conversation. the oil majors are pushing in this direction. tom: the tape is strange. with brent crude $128, the $131 print is important. we are not there yet. timna tanners joins us. exquisite on what you do with all of this stuff because you turn it into steel and other stuff. we are thrilled she could join us on short notice. you are in toledo. you're in a factory in toledo, ohio, where they take all the stuff we are talking about and

they actually make stop. what are the people in that factory think of the commodity cycle we are in? timna: thank you for having me. the fact is situation in the russia-ukrainian invasion is critical for raw materials, and in particular when we look at the steel industry, the big impact is the complete squeeze on raw materials. this facility in taleo -- in toledo is a real hedge and enabling them to buffer themselves against super squeeze in pig iron. russia and ukraine comprise two thirds of the pig iron imports, so this is the onset to that situation. tom: can you substitute in your world, if there is raw material from russia is it easy to substitute chile as an

example? timna: it is not. it depends on the commodity. if you look at palladium, it is 20% russia. pig iron is two thirds ukraine and russia in the alternative is brazil and they cannot compensate for that loss in production. even if you did have capacity you could take three, six, 12 months. many production facilities are off for reason, antiquated technology. it is hard for producers to make that decision because they do not know how long this will last it is a big economic decision. lisa: we are prepared for some sort of announcement from president biden about bands from imports of russian crude. what would the consequence be for the metals market if there was a similar ban on aluminum and other metals that are

imported from russia did united states? timna: the aluminum market is a global market. the americans are short aluminum. already the market until this morning was pricing in a big shortfall. it is hard to figure exactly what happens. russia is 6% of the aluminum market. that when we think is affected. it is also the impact on higher power prices in europe. that is one of the commodity prices -- you look at zinc, prices are up. russia is a huge producer of nickel. you see what happened with nickel recently come it is phenomenal and a little scary if you need it. lisa: you are talking about the on the ground, getting the mental out of the ground and giving it to people who needed

for products, and yet we are dealing with something that is highly financed lies, highly leveraged -- highly financial lies, highly leveraged -- how much is due to that and not the proof sort -- the true shortfalls? timna: if we are talking about anything traded prior to the disruptions, the markets were already very tight. if the situation were resolved tomorrow, the commodities would retreat. there has been physical disruptions of aluminum production in ukraine. it is little bit of both. there is no quick production fix and in some cases there has been irreparable damage to infrastructure that will of longer-lasting effects. jonathan: at 10:45 eastern we

will hear from the president of the united states on holding russia accountable as we report this morning that the president is set to ban u.s. imports of russian crude as soon as today. we will hear from the president, should be going from the president and the next couple of hours. jonathan: brent crude, we come up nicely, $129. not three $131 yet. timna, i'm fascinated in the hyper detail of your note and the visit, there is always the great mystery of china and their inventories of metals. in the years i have done this, there is always a great mystery. you have any understanding of what the true story is of china's inventory of the raw materials were finished ought? timna: i cannot say that i figured out china and not that angle, but i would say it depends on the commodity.

talking about some of these base metals, china is not a natural producer. talking about aluminum and steel , they are 50% of the market. if they have had to have the raw materials -- it is a cost problem, maybe not a scarcity problem if they decide to ramp up. tom: can we have a technological application given the crisis where we are we are more efficient with our metals? i think of nucor years ago and what they brought. we have another leap in your world if it is so expensive? timna: this can be a wake-up to markets, and you want to see a commodity that is so dependent on russia you rain or any region. -- on russia ukraine or any region. we're not talking about months or quarters but several years.

by the end of the decade you'll see more alternatives from materials. piercing efforts to mine the ocean floor, which would supplement nickel, which is particularly scarce. lisa: all morning we've been talking about how long the conflict will last and the longer term ramifications on the economy. can you give us a sense of how difficult it is to turn off some of these inputs and then turn them back on. how long do expect some of these disruptions to last? timna: that is a great point. if we are talking about the infrastructure, i'm not an expert in the conditions. from our understanding those have been damaged. that would have to be repaired. i heard half of the rails out of ukraine are not operable but half are stop in terms of whether it is a minor and operating facility, and aluminum

refinery new crane is 1.70 5 billion tons globally. when you shut that down you cannot restart. you have to have material to run it and a power supply stop that will take months to restart. if you have a mind, you can restart. it depends on having the people and the power on the ground. the bigger question is what of the state of the country when and's are resolved and how quickly can they produce again? so far it seems like there are still shipments of oil and shipments of iron ore as of last week. it will just be slow-moving at first. jonathan: thank you. timna tanners of wolfe research. a lot has changed in the last 30 minutes. at 10:45 will hear from the president of the united states, set to announce actions to hold

russia accountable for its unprovoked war. we reported about 30 minutes ago the biden ministration is posed to impose a ban on russian energy. they will do that without european allies. we have to talk about objectives. is this about changing vladimir putin's behavior? if european allies do not join, how effective will it be? is it about hurting the economy or taking a moral stance? it is the moral obligation of the u.s. to do this? overwhelmingly that is in the sense of the last few days. tom: that is what we have seen. it is an easy decision for the president where these products are not that much. we forget help dominic this is, particularly -- how dominant this is in eastern and central europe. the gap from germany to great britain is extensive. lisa: it is a big gap --

jonathan: it is a big gap from europe to the u.s.. crude product is a different story. the market is already turning in that direction and that has been the shift. that statement this morning from shell that is all you need to know. essentially apologizing for buying russian route last week -- for buying russian crude last week. lisa: the shift in sentiment has gone with biden and how much cover does this give him for gas prices going up and are going up further and people are more willing to accept those increases. jonathan: great reporting from the team at bloomberg. brent crude approaching $130. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world.

bloomberg has learned the biden administration said to ban u.s. imports of russian energy as soon as today. the ban includes oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal. u.s. making the move without the participation of its european allies. russia is threatening to cut off natural gas supplies to europe. that is part of moscow's response to sanctions imposed of the invasion of the rain. it could heighten the turmoil -- the invasion of ukraine. it could heighten the turmoil. the french energy company lng says will keep buying gas from russia. >> at this stage we continue to buy the gas from russia. we are thinking about continuing to be there for our customers and that is what is driving us. should sanctions be decided at a european level we would comply. ritika: earlier macgregor said a

russian gas cutoff in europe could lead for rationing. yum! brands is suspending investment in restaurants in russia. the country has about 1000 cap see and 50 pizza hut restaurants. also donating to the red cross for those affected by the invasion of you rain. -- the invasion of ukraine. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have a responsibility to ensure the conflict does not escalate and spread beyond

ukraine. that would be even more dangerous, destructive, and more deadly. the situation could spiral out of control. tom: the gentleman from nato and from norway with important comments this morning. secretary blinken is moving from a studio to france. -- from estonia to france. we hope to bring you the highlights of secretary blinken's meeting with emmanuel macron. i that we should see that in two hours and three hours. in two hours we will hear from the president of the united states on important announcements about oil imports from russia. we get a domestic perspective. she has been more than patient this hour. diane swonk. imf suitably fascinated and all of your commitment to our fed day coverage as well.

what kind of fed day do expect weevils the given this historic news flow? diane: the timing could not come at a worse time as this is adding fuel to a well kindled and nation fire for the federal reserve. we have seen jay powell's commitment to raise rates by a quarter-point at the march meeting. it is important to understand we risk seeing a much more entrenched inflation, not exactly the same as the 1970's, but with any airy resemblance. in his tent -- but with an ear he -- an eerie resemblance. he says we are looking at the 1970's to avoid not repeat. that means the fed has to combat demand side of the inflation even as we are seeing the supply shock from russia. tom: you and i have lived the measured of alan greenspan. with this war in ukraine and the

fed and there economist, can they get away from measured, saying we will raise rates but it is a one off? diane: i think they have to be very cognizant of saying they will not allow inflation to get out of control any further. they are already behind the curve. this puts them a bad position. one of the hard things from the federal reserve is the tight rope jay powell be walking between wanting to raise rates and stem inflationary pressures and stop inflation from becoming a recession without dipping financial markets into a larger credit market seizure. that would do the job for the fed but would be much harder to recover from. that is a fine tight rope to walk. lisa: there is also the question of the economic fleet through of the higher gas rises. they reached the highest and a

nominal basis on record. what is the consequence for the average american family given gas prices are now north of four dollars a gallon? diane: we have done calculations. the record increase on a nominal basis we saw in prices at the pump coming out of the pandemic. now this adds another $850 to $900 per household that wipes out much of the excess savings in the lower quartile of households that were able to hold. that is at a time when there also those households getting slammed. that is the same time there much more vulnerable to the rising rents and escalating rent we are seeing and all of the other aspects of inflation. it is a different inequality issue because those who can work from home have the ability to hedge against and blunt the blow of higher commute cost when those who have to work in person in lower wage jobs cannot blunt

that level of higher commute cost and that is compounding the inflationary impact. lisa: you think potentially we could avoid returning to some sort of recessionary environment in response to oil shock and see a massive increase in inequality what you think both could occur? you think this is a shock that changes the trajectory in a meaningful way? diane: unfortunately i think the risk is a changes in a much more meaningful way. going into the crisis we are looking at the fog of war and what kind of decision and scenarios out there, and our resilience through this as an economy is a double edged sword because it suggests the fed cannot afford not to raise rates at the same time we are hitting demand with higher energy prices in the two colliding means we likely will need to see a slow down that leads into unemployment to derail the inflationary pressures we have

seen. in our best case scenarios we are looking at a stall out of growth in the second half of the year that is not technically a recession but not enough to halt the unemployment rate down after it falls further in the first half of this year. that is not a great scenario to have and that is without additional supply chain bottlenecks you were talking about earlier, which i think are important. they had insult to injury and are already bad inflation scenarios and continue to contribute to sources out there. lisa: what would holding rates were they are due? -- what would holding rates were they are do? diane: my concern is holding rates at their constant level given the momentum we have already seen is we would see a more entrenched in elation -- more entrenched inflation. expectations for people pushing it onto employers. i talked to many an employer who

are getting complaints by their workers that did not get as big a raise is the entry-level workers got and they are not keeping up with inflation. that is a different way of getting to the 1970's, but it is an important thing to be thinking about. you risk the longer life stagflationary environment in the fed cannot afford that, either. tom: that is the american observation of the day. diane swonk, thank you so much on the different deciles of income in america and what they see with this new -- dare i say it, 8% inflation? i think unfortunately i am right. lisa: even if it is not in the cpi reading we get thursday, it is headed that way and perhaps beyond. what she is talking about is important. damp if you do, damp if you do not -- damned if you do, damned if you don't. we risk a more entrenched

stagflation environment. jonathan: 120 not -- tom: $129.84 on brent crude. nymex has $125.38. harkening towards five dollars a gallon. we already see that in certain geographies. lisa, your observation. mine is simple. radio silence from russia. lisa: yesterday we heard they were availed threat they would cut off gas supplies from nord stream one as a possible retaliation. what strikes me is the increase you are seeing in brent and wti, more than 5% on growth. -- more than 5% on both. as we see more steps like this, how much more has to be priced in? that is a point of big disagreements. tom: some of the haven statistics we see are good, some are not.

dollar ruble moments ago, 141, that is a weaker ruble. the real yield -1.05%. stay with us. the president speaks at 10:45. ♪

jonathan: united states of america ready to impose sanctions on russian energy. equity futures debt flat.

"the countdown to the open" starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york city, we begin with the big issue. a humanitarian crisis. russia and ukraine saying they will make an effort to establish corridors of civilians fleeing the fighting. u.s. ready to step up sanctions once again. >> there is a significant opportunity, but imperative in this moment to violate -- to finally move off of the defendants on russian energy